SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday or Tuesday night. ...Northeast... A post-frontal regime will be in place across the Northeast Tuesday. Flow aloft will remain modest with mid-level cooling through the day. This will support potential for redevelopment of scattered thunderstorm activity by the afternoon. Given post-frontal drying conditions and weak buoyancy, this should yield primarily sub-severe low-topped convection, though occasional gusty winds will be possible. ...Southwest... A mid-level low will approach the West Coast, with a belt of mid-level flow overspreading southern California into southern Nevada. Ahead of this feature, a weak shortwave trough will move across the Lower Colorado Valley towards the southern Rockies. Enough mid-level moisture in place with large-scale ascent will allow for isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity across the northern Sierra and across the Four Corners region. As shear profiles will be weak, storms are not expected to be severe. ..Thornton/Leitman.. 04/14/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z Ongoing elevated surface winds from the northwest of 15-25 mph within a dry post-frontal air mass will still result in Elevated fire weather conditions for parts of Central Plains today. Localized Critical fire weather conditions could develop where cloud cover remains minimal across central Nebraska as relative humidity drops into the 15-20% range this afternoon. However, a widespread Critical fire weather threat is not expected. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... Strong surface winds are expected in the wake of a cold front across the northern/central Plains today. These strong winds will persist into at least early afternoon. Thereafter, winds will steadily diminish. Despite a tendency for cooler temperatures to filter into the region, modest downslope flow and surface heating should allow temperatures to remain in the 50s/low 60s F. RH values of 20-30% are probable. Winds of 15-25 mph are expected. The most favorable overlap of these conditions are expected in parts of far southwest South Dakota, Nebraska, and far northern Kansas. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions will occur for a few hours this afternoon. Models have quite a bit variance in the location and duration of sustained critical conditions. This is likely due to uncertainties in low/mid-level clouds that will eventually move into Nebraska. This precludes the addition of the critical highlight at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHWEST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected this afternoon through early tonight from the Upper Ohio Valley eastward to the Mid-Atlantic. Large hail, severe wind gusts, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible. ...Upper OH Valley this afternoon into VA early tonight... Recent satellite imagery depicts a maturing mid-latitude cyclone moving eastward across Lake Superior towards northeastern Ontario with an upstream shortwave trough moving through the northern Plains. Expectation is for the cyclone to continue deepening/maturing as it moves into and through northeastern Ontario today, while the upstream shortwave progresses quickly southeastward through the Mid MO Valley and into the Mid MS Valley. As this occurs, strong mid-level flow will spread eastward across the OH Valley and over the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic States. At the same time, a cold front will spread eastward across the OH Valley this afternoon and evening, and across the central Appalachians tonight. Current surface analysis reveals upper 40s to low 50s dewpoints ahead of the front in the Middle OH Valley, with the upper 50s/low 60s dewpoints farther southwest over western KY. This greater low-level moisture is expected to surge northeastward amid the moderate southwesterly low-level flow, combining with evapotranspiration to bring upper 50s dewpoints into upper OH Valley ahead of the front. This increase in low-level moisture combined with daytime heating should be enough to destabilize the airmass ahead of the front across the Upper OH Valley. Forcing for ascent (from a combination of increasing large-scale ascent and forcing along the front) will increase across this destabilized area, supporting thunderstorm development during the afternoon. An initially cellular mode is anticipated, with steep mid-level lapse rates and long hodographs potentially resulting in a few supercells. Primary severe risk with these supercells is large hail of 1-2 inches in diameter. Some damaging gusts and a tornado or two are possible, although the lack of higher low-level moisture will mitigate the overall tornado potential. Strong outflow and increasing mid-level flow suggest a transition to a more linear mode is likely, with several bowing segments possible. There is also some potential for the development of a singular, more coherent convective line. In either case, a transition from hail to damaging gusts as the primary severe risk is anticipated as this activity spreads eastward. Clusters/line segments will likely persist east of the Appalachians into VA through early tonight, though the severe threat will diminish with eastward extent and after 03z. ...SD to IA this afternoon/evening... Low-level moisture will be limited, but surface heating beneath cooling midlevel temperatures will support weak surface-based buoyancy and the potential for low-topped showers and a few thunderstorms from SD into IA (in advance of a digging shortwave trough now over western ND/eastern MT). Relatively cold temperature profiles will favor some threat for small hail, while steep low-level lapse rates and 30+ kt flow through the mixed layer favor gusty outflow winds of 40-50 mph. ..Mosier/Weinman.. 04/14/2025 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Apr 14 13:53:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA INTO CENTRAL VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected this afternoon through early tonight from the Upper Ohio Valley eastward to the Mid-Atlantic. Large hail, severe wind gusts, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible. ...Upper OH Valley this afternoon into VA early tonight... An initial shortwave trough and surface cyclone will occlude by tonight between Lake Superior and James Bay, as an upstream shortwave trough digs southeastward from the northern Plains toward the OH Valley. An associated surface cold front will move southeastward across the OH Valley today, while a corridor of moisture return occurs ahead of the front from the Mid-South to WV. Surface heating in cloud breaks will drive temperatures into the 70s by early-mid afternoon, coincident with northeastward advection of 55-60 F boundary-layer dewpoints beneath the northeastward extent of an elevated mixed layer. Though the upstream moisture source is rather modest by mid April standards, recent green up and unusually moist ground across the OH Valley will augment evapotranspiration. These processes will result in MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg with minimal convective inhibition as low-level ascent focuses along the front. Thunderstorm development is expected by mid afternoon in a broken band along the cold front from northern KY into southern OH, and storms subsequently expand in coverage while spreading east-southeastward across WV into VA through early tonight. The moderate buoyancy and long hodographs will support supercells capable of producing large hail of 1-2 inches in diameter, and damaging winds of 60-75 mph are also expected, especially with any upscale growth into bowing segments. Low-level shear/hodograph curvature will be sufficient for some tornado threat, though this will be modulated by the degree of low-level moistening. Clusters/line segments will persist east of the Appalachians into VA through early tonight, though the severe threat will diminish with eastward extent and after 03z. ...SD to IA this afternoon/evening... Despite limited low-level moisture, surface heating beneath cooling midlevel temperatures will support weak surface-based buoyancy and the potential for low-topped thunderstorms from SD into IA (in advance of the digging shortwave trough now over western ND/eastern MT). Relatively cold temperature profiles will favor some threat for small hail, while steep low-level lapse rates and 30+ kt flow through the mixed layer favor gusty outflow winds of 40-50 mph. ..Thompson/Dean.. 04/14/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Active severe weather pattern expected late week into the weekend. ...D4/Thursday... A longwave trough should become clearly anchored over the West and consist of multiple embedded shortwave impulses. Peak surface cyclone amplitude is largely progged over western KS on Thursday afternoon, with a dryline arcing across eastern KS into the southern Great Plains. Another day of modifying moisture return northward from the western Gulf should yield at least moderate buoyancy ahead of the dryline. A strengthening low-level jet should support thunderstorm development across the Lower MO to Mid-MS Valleys on Thursday evening. Supercell wind profiles support potentially scattered severe storms. ...D5/Friday... A broad swath of strong mid-level southwesterlies appears likely to become established from the southern High Plains to the Great Lakes, downstream of a longwave trough from James Bay to the Lower CO Valley. While the deep cyclone over the KS vicinity will weaken, it should move towards the central Great Lakes. From along/ahead of its track to the trailing cold front arcing southwestward into west TX, extensive thunderstorm development is anticipated Friday afternoon/evening. Given the strong mid-level flow regime, scattered severe storms are possible across an elongated corridor. ...D6-7/Saturday-Sunday... Predictability for a 15 percent highlight remains too low during the weekend, but areas will probably be needed in later outlooks. Guidance has trended neutral to slightly weaker/more confined potential on Saturday. Overall signal persists of bimodal primary threat areas across the Lower Mid-Atlantic States and southern High/Great Plains. For the former, the degree of instability and position of a southeast-moving cold front on the periphery of stronger zonal mid-level flow remain key uncertainty factors. For the latter, timing of the pivot and eastward ejection of the compact Lower CO Valley shortwave impulse across the Southwest/southern Rockies remains crucial. Guidance has shown poor run-to-run continuity for Sunday, yielding low confidence on spatial details of the severe threat. Across both regimes and days, NSSL GEFS ML sub-15 percent probabilities appear quite reasonable. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Active severe weather pattern expected late week into the weekend. ...D4/Thursday... A longwave trough should become clearly anchored over the West and consist of multiple embedded shortwave impulses. Peak surface cyclone amplitude is largely progged over western KS on Thursday afternoon, with a dryline arcing across eastern KS into the southern Great Plains. Another day of modifying moisture return northward from the western Gulf should yield at least moderate buoyancy ahead of the dryline. A strengthening low-level jet should support thunderstorm development across the Lower MO to Mid-MS Valleys on Thursday evening. Supercell wind profiles support potentially scattered severe storms. ...D5/Friday... A broad swath of strong mid-level southwesterlies appears likely to become established from the southern High Plains to the Great Lakes, downstream of a longwave trough from James Bay to the Lower CO Valley. While the deep cyclone over the KS vicinity will weaken, it should move towards the central Great Lakes. From along/ahead of its track to the trailing cold front arcing southwestward into west TX, extensive thunderstorm development is anticipated Friday afternoon/evening. Given the strong mid-level flow regime, scattered severe storms are possible across an elongated corridor. ...D6-7/Saturday-Sunday... Predictability for a 15 percent highlight remains too low during the weekend, but areas will probably be needed in later outlooks. Guidance has trended neutral to slightly weaker/more confined potential on Saturday. Overall signal persists of bimodal primary threat areas across the Lower Mid-Atlantic States and southern High/Great Plains. For the former, the degree of instability and position of a southeast-moving cold front on the periphery of stronger zonal mid-level flow remain key uncertainty factors. For the latter, timing of the pivot and eastward ejection of the compact Lower CO Valley shortwave impulse across the Southwest/southern Rockies remains crucial. Guidance has shown poor run-to-run continuity for Sunday, yielding low confidence on spatial details of the severe threat. Across both regimes and days, NSSL GEFS ML sub-15 percent probabilities appear quite reasonable. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through Wednesday night. ...West to Central States... A broad swath of predominately isolated thunder is anticipated starting Wednesday afternoon and persisting into early morning Thursday. A northern-stream shortwave trough is expected to dig southward from the Canadian Rockies into the northern Intermountain West. A southern-stream, lower-amplitude shortwave trough should drift towards the southern CA coast. Downstream lee cyclogenesis should occur over the central High Plains by Wednesday night, with modified moisture return from the western Gulf Coast northward. In the West, buoyancy will be scant outside of CA. But the strengthening large-scale ascent ahead of/within the developing longwave trough should support isolated thunderstorms, peaking in the late afternoon. Across the central Great Plains vicinity, surface-based storm development appears unlikely given the initially low-quality moisture return beneath a stout EML. A corridor of elevated thunder may be realized by Wednesday night, as a low-level jet strengthens from west TX to KS. Guidance does differ on amplitude of this strengthening, and has fairly large spread in if/where elevated convection is sustained early morning Thursday. ..Grams.. 04/14/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... A surface high will push into the southern Rockies on Tuesday. A weakening shortwave trough will move through parts of the Southwest. Farther east, a strong upper trough will move through the East Coast through the day. A cold front will move offshore early afternoon with gusty northwest wind filling in behind it. ...Southwest... How far the cooler air pushes westward will determine the exact extent of fire weather risk in the vicinity of the Arizona/New Mexico border. Current guidance would suggest a primarily upslope regime into central Mexico with cooler temperatures and higher RH. West of this cooler air, the upper shortwave trough will be favorably timed during the afternoon. Dry and breezy conditions will lead to elevated fire weather. Surface winds of 15-20 mph and RH of 15-20% will be possible. ...Piedmont/Blue Ridge... RH of 20-25% is possible in the wake of the cold front where modest downslope winds off of the Appalachians will occur. Winds will potentially reach 15-20 mph. Despite these conditions, recent rainfall has likely tempered fuel receptiveness. No highlights will be added at this time. ..Wendt.. 04/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... Strong surface winds are expected in the wake of a cold front across the northern/central Plains today. These strong winds will persist into at least early afternoon. Thereafter, winds will steadily diminish. Despite a tendency for cooler temperatures to filter into the region, modest downslope flow and surface heating should allow temperatures to remain in the 50s/low 60s F. RH values of 20-30% are probable. Winds of 15-25 mph are expected. The most favorable overlap of these conditions are expected in parts of far southwest South Dakota, Nebraska, and far northern Kansas. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions will occur for a few hours this afternoon. Models have quite a bit variance in the location and duration of sustained critical conditions. This is likely due to uncertainties in low/mid-level clouds that will eventually move into Nebraska. This precludes the addition of the critical highlight at this time. ..Wendt.. 04/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday or Tuesday night. ...Northeast... Sporadic, low-topped thunderstorms may develop towards midday through the afternoon within a post-frontal regime as 500-mb temperatures fall at/below -28 C. This should occur to the west of an intense mid-level jet that will progress quickly across the Mid-Atlantic States and off the coast by evening. While the boundary layer will be drying, scant buoyancy may persist where mid-level lapse rates abruptly steepen. Much of the convection will probably remain as scattered showers, with thunderstorm coverage expected to be very isolated. Locally strong gusts could accompany this weak convection at peak heating across southern New England. ...Southwest... A low-amplitude shortwave impulse should dampen as it moves from the Lower CO Valley towards the southern Rockies. But adequate large-scale ascent coupled with scant buoyancy should yield isolated thunderstorms, mainly on Tuesday afternoon. Farther west, a separate shortwave trough will approach but remain offshore of the CA coast. Greater but still weak buoyancy from the Sierra NV Mountains across northern CA may support isolated afternoon thunderstorms. Weak deep-layer shear/ascent will minimize severe potential. ..Grams.. 04/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday or Tuesday night. ...Northeast... Sporadic, low-topped thunderstorms may develop towards midday through the afternoon within a post-frontal regime as 500-mb temperatures fall at/below -28 C. This should occur to the west of an intense mid-level jet that will progress quickly across the Mid-Atlantic States and off the coast by evening. While the boundary layer will be drying, scant buoyancy may persist where mid-level lapse rates abruptly steepen. Much of the convection will probably remain as scattered showers, with thunderstorm coverage expected to be very isolated. Locally strong gusts could accompany this weak convection at peak heating across southern New England. ...Southwest... A low-amplitude shortwave impulse should dampen as it moves from the Lower CO Valley towards the southern Rockies. But adequate large-scale ascent coupled with scant buoyancy should yield isolated thunderstorms, mainly on Tuesday afternoon. Farther west, a separate shortwave trough will approach but remain offshore of the CA coast. Greater but still weak buoyancy from the Sierra NV Mountains across northern CA may support isolated afternoon thunderstorms. Weak deep-layer shear/ascent will minimize severe potential. ..Grams.. 04/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the Upper Ohio Valley eastward to the Mid-Atlantic. Large hail, severe wind gusts, and a tornado threat will be possible. ...Lower Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... At mid-levels, a positively-tilted trough will move through the northern Plains as a low moves northeastward into Ontario. Heights will fall today from the Ohio Valley into the Northeast as a ridge moves into the western Atlantic. At the surface, a pre-frontal trough will develop in the lee of the Appalachians, as a cold front advances southeastward through the lower Ohio and mid Mississippi Valleys. Ahead of the front, low-level moisture will advect northeastward into Kentucky, southern Ohio and West Virginia. As instability increases along this corridor, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon from near the front eastward along the northern edge of the instability gradient. Multiple relatively small clusters of storms are expected to form and move eastward into the central Appalachians. An 80 to 90 knot mid-level jet will move across the central Plains today, as the exit region of the jet overspreads the Ohio Valley. Lift and strong deep-layer shear associated with the exit region of the jet will support strong to severe thunderstorm development this afternoon. Forecast soundings this afternoon from eastern Kentucky into West Virginia have MLCAPE peaking near 2000 J/kg with 0-6 km shear in the 60 to 65 knot range. This will support a severe threat, associated with isolated supercells and short bowing line segments. Large hail will be most likely with supercells. In addition, low-level flow is forecast to steadily increase in the late afternoon and early evening near the moist axis. This will create strong low-level shear favorable for a tornado threat. The tornado threat is expected to be the greatest from far northeast Kentucky into parts of West Virginia, where 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to reach the 200 to 350 m2/s2 range. Supercells and short bowing line segments will also be capable of producing wind damage. During the early to mid evening, the severe threat is expected to spread eastward into the Mid-Atlantic, where severe gusts and isolated large hail will also be possible. ..Broyles/Wendt.. 04/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the Upper Ohio Valley eastward to the Mid-Atlantic. Large hail, severe wind gusts, and a tornado threat will be possible. ...Lower Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... At mid-levels, a positively-tilted trough will move through the northern Plains as a low moves northeastward into Ontario. Heights will fall today from the Ohio Valley into the Northeast as a ridge moves into the western Atlantic. At the surface, a pre-frontal trough will develop in the lee of the Appalachians, as a cold front advances southeastward through the lower Ohio and mid Mississippi Valleys. Ahead of the front, low-level moisture will advect northeastward into Kentucky, southern Ohio and West Virginia. As instability increases along this corridor, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon from near the front eastward along the northern edge of the instability gradient. Multiple relatively small clusters of storms are expected to form and move eastward into the central Appalachians. An 80 to 90 knot mid-level jet will move across the central Plains today, as the exit region of the jet overspreads the Ohio Valley. Lift and strong deep-layer shear associated with the exit region of the jet will support strong to severe thunderstorm development this afternoon. Forecast soundings this afternoon from eastern Kentucky into West Virginia have MLCAPE peaking near 2000 J/kg with 0-6 km shear in the 60 to 65 knot range. This will support a severe threat, associated with isolated supercells and short bowing line segments. Large hail will be most likely with supercells. In addition, low-level flow is forecast to steadily increase in the late afternoon and early evening near the moist axis. This will create strong low-level shear favorable for a tornado threat. The tornado threat is expected to be the greatest from far northeast Kentucky into parts of West Virginia, where 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to reach the 200 to 350 m2/s2 range. Supercells and short bowing line segments will also be capable of producing wind damage. During the early to mid evening, the severe threat is expected to spread eastward into the Mid-Atlantic, where severe gusts and isolated large hail will also be possible. ..Broyles/Wendt.. 04/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this evening into the overnight across parts of the northwestern Great Lakes. Isolated storms may also develop this evening in parts of the northern Plains and central High Plains. ...DISCUSSION... The latest water vapor imagery shows a trough from the northern Plains extending southward into the central High Plains, with a plume of mid-level moisture extending from the central Rockies into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes. Isolated thunderstorm development will be possible this evening near the trough, mainly in northeastern Colorado near the right entrance region of a mid-level jet. Additional storms may form just ahead of the trough from eastern South Dakota into western Minnesota where a pocket of steep mid-level lapse rates is present according to mesoanalysis data. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible this evening into tonight further ahead of the trough near the axis of a low-level jet in parts of the northwestern Great Lakes. No severe threat is expected. ..Broyles.. 04/14/2025 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z The forecast period will begin with an strong shortwave trough over the eastern half of the CONUS, with general ridging over the western half of CONUS. Additionally, fuels in the southwestern CONUS and into the High Plains should be receptive to fire spread throughout the week. A small jet streak should be embedded in the mid-level flow on Day 3/Tuesday across portions of the Southwest, and some of that flow may get mixed downward to the surface under strong surface heating across portions of New Mexico and Arizona. This may provide some fire weather risk across this region, and the 40% area has been maintained in this outlook to reflect that. By Day 4/Wednesday, the pattern shifts eastward, with troughing developing over the western parts of the CONUS and ridging over the central CONUS. The surface low pressure area associated with the mid-level troughing is expected to provide additional dry and breezy conditions across parts of New Mexico and Arizona. As such, the 40% area has been expanded to reflect this. By Day 5/Thursday, troughing becomes established over the western CONUS with lee troughing underway across the High Plains. This feature should provide additional fire weather risk across portions of the High Plains. The 40% area has been expanded, and a 70% area has been added where the highest confidence in Critical fire weather conditions overlaps with dry fuels. This pattern continues on Day 6/Friday, and a 40% area has been added across parts of New Mexico where the highest confidence in dry and breezy conditions is currently expected. Areas on both day 5 and 6 may need to be expanded eastward in subsequent outlooks. Beyond Day 6, continued dry and windy conditions are possible, however predictability deteriorates such that additional highlights are withheld pending later outlooks. ..Supinie.. 04/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Apr 13 19:59:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Apr 13 19:59:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible from the Upper Mississippi Valley to the Great Lakes, and from the central Rockies to the lower Missouri Valley through tonight. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...20z Update... The prior forecast remains valid with only minimal changes to the western edge of the Thunder area. Isolated thunderstorms ongoing over parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes should spread eastward through tonight. Additional elevated thunderstorms will remain possible across the OH Valley and Midwest as the low-level jet increases overnight. Given limited moisture, instability is forecast to remain too weak to support a severe threat. See the previous discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 04/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward from the northern High Plains to the Upper Midwest by late tonight, as a surface low develops northeastward from eastern NE/KS to the upper Great Lakes. Limited low-level moisture return will continue through the period within the warm sector of this cyclone. But, sufficient ascent/saturation will likely remain confined to near the IA/MN border this afternoon, where elevated thunderstorms are ongoing. Some small hail may occur with this activity. This elevated convection is expected to spread eastward over WI and parts of Lower MI through the late evening. Farther west, isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into early evening along a southward-moving cold front across CO, and overnight into MO where moistening and weak ascent atop the front (near/above 700 mb) could support elevated convection by 09-12z. Across all these areas, instability is forecast to remain too weak to support organized severe thunderstorms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible from the Upper Mississippi Valley to the Great Lakes, and from the central Rockies to the lower Missouri Valley through tonight. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...20z Update... The prior forecast remains valid with only minimal changes to the western edge of the Thunder area. Isolated thunderstorms ongoing over parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes should spread eastward through tonight. Additional elevated thunderstorms will remain possible across the OH Valley and Midwest as the low-level jet increases overnight. Given limited moisture, instability is forecast to remain too weak to support a severe threat. See the previous discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 04/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward from the northern High Plains to the Upper Midwest by late tonight, as a surface low develops northeastward from eastern NE/KS to the upper Great Lakes. Limited low-level moisture return will continue through the period within the warm sector of this cyclone. But, sufficient ascent/saturation will likely remain confined to near the IA/MN border this afternoon, where elevated thunderstorms are ongoing. Some small hail may occur with this activity. This elevated convection is expected to spread eastward over WI and parts of Lower MI through the late evening. Farther west, isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into early evening along a southward-moving cold front across CO, and overnight into MO where moistening and weak ascent atop the front (near/above 700 mb) could support elevated convection by 09-12z. Across all these areas, instability is forecast to remain too weak to support organized severe thunderstorms. Read more