SPC MD 848
MD 0848 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 282... FOR ARK-LA-TEX
Mesoscale Discussion 0848 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0953 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Areas affected...Ark-La-Tex Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 282... Valid 180253Z - 180500Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 282 continues. SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat will likely continue across the Ark-La-Tex over the next few hours. Wind damage and hail will be the primary threats. DISCUSSION...A couple of severe storms are currently ongoing in southeast Oklahoma, according to mosaic radar imagery. The activity is located along and near an axis of moderate instability, where MLCAPE is estimated to be in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range, according to the RAP. The convection is being supported by a subtle shortwave trough, evident on water vapor imagery over the Ark-La-Tex. In addition, the Shreveport WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 km shear near 55 knots. Forecast soundings late this evening in the Ark-La-Tex have steep low to mid-level lapse rates suggesting that a wind-damage threat will continue. Hail could also occur. The threat should become more isolated with time as instability gradually decreases, and as a weak capping inversion increases. ..Broyles.. 05/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 34349332 33809276 33289287 32999327 32979374 33149447 33609522 34049562 34509571 34959535 35009479 34699398 34349332 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more
Mesoscale Discussion 0848 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0953 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Areas affected...Ark-La-Tex Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 282... Valid 180253Z - 180500Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 282 continues. SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat will likely continue across the Ark-La-Tex over the next few hours. Wind damage and hail will be the primary threats. DISCUSSION...A couple of severe storms are currently ongoing in southeast Oklahoma, according to mosaic radar imagery. The activity is located along and near an axis of moderate instability, where MLCAPE is estimated to be in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range, according to the RAP. The convection is being supported by a subtle shortwave trough, evident on water vapor imagery over the Ark-La-Tex. In addition, the Shreveport WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 km shear near 55 knots. Forecast soundings late this evening in the Ark-La-Tex have steep low to mid-level lapse rates suggesting that a wind-damage threat will continue. Hail could also occur. The threat should become more isolated with time as instability gradually decreases, and as a weak capping inversion increases. ..Broyles.. 05/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 34349332 33809276 33289287 32999327 32979374 33149447 33609522 34049562 34509571 34959535 35009479 34699398 34349332 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more