SPC Jan 27, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 PM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Lingering isolated thunderstorms are likely this morning across the lower Mississippi River Valley with more persistent, though still isolated, thunderstorms chances across southern California into portions of the lower Colorado Valley. Severe weather potential remains quite low. ...Synopsis... A broad upper-level trough remains in place from the Great Lakes region through the Southwest with a more pronounced upper low just off the southern CA coast based on late-evening water vapor imagery and 00 UTC RAOBs. This synoptic regime is expected to largely remain in place for today as the trough slowly migrates southeast. At the surface, a frontolytic cold front extending from the upper OH River Valley into the lower MS River Valley and TX Gulf Coast will continue to push east/southeast, resulting in largely offshore flow along much of the central Gulf Coast by late this afternoon. Before this occurs, weak ascent along the boundary, coupled with very modest - but sufficient - buoyancy ahead of the front (sampled best by the 00 UTC LCH sounding), should support isolated thunderstorms from the start of the period (12 UTC) through around 16-18 UTC. Further west, cold temperatures aloft associated with the core of the upper low will overspread the lower CO Valley through the day. A modest influx of Pacific moisture coupled with steepening lapse rates and weak ascent will promote sporadic thunderstorm development through much of the day and possibly into the overnight hours. ..Moore.. 01/27/2025 Read more
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 PM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Lingering isolated thunderstorms are likely this morning across the lower Mississippi River Valley with more persistent, though still isolated, thunderstorms chances across southern California into portions of the lower Colorado Valley. Severe weather potential remains quite low. ...Synopsis... A broad upper-level trough remains in place from the Great Lakes region through the Southwest with a more pronounced upper low just off the southern CA coast based on late-evening water vapor imagery and 00 UTC RAOBs. This synoptic regime is expected to largely remain in place for today as the trough slowly migrates southeast. At the surface, a frontolytic cold front extending from the upper OH River Valley into the lower MS River Valley and TX Gulf Coast will continue to push east/southeast, resulting in largely offshore flow along much of the central Gulf Coast by late this afternoon. Before this occurs, weak ascent along the boundary, coupled with very modest - but sufficient - buoyancy ahead of the front (sampled best by the 00 UTC LCH sounding), should support isolated thunderstorms from the start of the period (12 UTC) through around 16-18 UTC. Further west, cold temperatures aloft associated with the core of the upper low will overspread the lower CO Valley through the day. A modest influx of Pacific moisture coupled with steepening lapse rates and weak ascent will promote sporadic thunderstorm development through much of the day and possibly into the overnight hours. ..Moore.. 01/27/2025 Read more