No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Feb 1 15:02:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. today or tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows low-amplitude, progressive flow regime across the Lower 48 states. In the low levels, a cool/stable airmass will influence much of the eastern U.S. via surface high pressure centered over Ontario and moving into New England late tonight. Conditions will be hostile to thunderstorm development for almost the entire CONUS, with the exception associated with low-topped convection and perhaps a stray lightning flash possible near the WA coastal vicinity. ..Smith/Bentley.. 02/01/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models continue to depict generally zonal flow across the U.S. through the medium-range period. By the start of the period, a prominent baroclinic zone at the leading edge of an Arctic airmass is progged to have become established in a roughly west-to-east manner from the Mid-Atlantic region west-southwestward into the southern Plains. Weak/subtle perturbations forecast to move across the U.S. within the background/fast westerly flow regime are expected to modulate the north-south position of this boundary, but with its average location remaining roughly unchanged through day 6 -- after which evolving model differences cast more substantial uncertainty into the forecast. At this time, it appears that mainly elevated convection -- and perhaps a limited potential for hail -- may evolve primarily north of the front, in the late day 4 to early day 6 time frame, from the central U.S. eastward into the Tennessee Valley/Mid South region. However, at this time, risk appears to limited/low to highlight with a 15% probability area. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. on Monday. ...Discussion... Low-amplitude flow aloft is expected to prevail across the U.S. Monday, with the zonal regime trending weakly toward a western trough/central ridge/eastern trough configuration through the period. At the surface, a weak frontal wave along the slowly sagging baroclinic zone should shift out of the Plains across the Midwest through the day, and then across New England overnight. In the wake of this wave, the surface front will continue shifting southeastward/southward across the central and eastern states. By late in the period, the front should stretch from coastal New England southwestward to the Mid-Atlantic region, and then west-southwestward across the Tennessee and Lower Mississippi Valleys into Texas. While very weak low-level theta-e advection is expected ahead of the southward-moving front, moisture return should be quite insufficient to support appreciable destabilization. Meanwhile, with Arctic air spreading southward behind the front, a thermodynamic environment insufficient to support deep moist convection is forecast to persist across the U.S. through the period. ..Goss.. 02/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. on Monday. ...Discussion... Low-amplitude flow aloft is expected to prevail across the U.S. Monday, with the zonal regime trending weakly toward a western trough/central ridge/eastern trough configuration through the period. At the surface, a weak frontal wave along the slowly sagging baroclinic zone should shift out of the Plains across the Midwest through the day, and then across New England overnight. In the wake of this wave, the surface front will continue shifting southeastward/southward across the central and eastern states. By late in the period, the front should stretch from coastal New England southwestward to the Mid-Atlantic region, and then west-southwestward across the Tennessee and Lower Mississippi Valleys into Texas. While very weak low-level theta-e advection is expected ahead of the southward-moving front, moisture return should be quite insufficient to support appreciable destabilization. Meanwhile, with Arctic air spreading southward behind the front, a thermodynamic environment insufficient to support deep moist convection is forecast to persist across the U.S. through the period. ..Goss.. 02/01/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Flow aloft will be primarily zonal over the central US through the weekend. In response, lee troughing will persist with west/southwesterly winds over much of the southern Plains. Some fire-weather risk is possible as area fuels dry with warm temperatures and low humidity. However, the overlap of strong winds and low humidity is not expected to support widespread critical concerns. ...Southern High Plains... At least modestly dry and windy conditions should continue into D2/Sunday as the lee low/trough remains over the High Plains. Continued warm and dry conditions will support further drying of area fuels. While zonal flow aloft is expected to be fairly strong, it is displaced to the north. This should keep surface wind speeds modest for much of that period across areas of the drier/more receptive fuels. Localized elevated fire-weather conditions are still possible from southeastern NM into West TX. However, conditions are not expected to be widespread enough to support an Elevated area. ..Lyons.. 02/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Flow aloft will be primarily zonal over the central US through the weekend. In response, lee troughing will persist with west/southwesterly winds over much of the southern Plains. Some fire-weather risk is possible as area fuels dry with warm temperatures and low humidity. However, the overlap of strong winds and low humidity is not expected to support widespread critical concerns. ...Southern High Plains... At least modestly dry and windy conditions should continue into D2/Sunday as the lee low/trough remains over the High Plains. Continued warm and dry conditions will support further drying of area fuels. While zonal flow aloft is expected to be fairly strong, it is displaced to the north. This should keep surface wind speeds modest for much of that period across areas of the drier/more receptive fuels. Localized elevated fire-weather conditions are still possible from southeastern NM into West TX. However, conditions are not expected to be widespread enough to support an Elevated area. ..Lyons.. 02/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... Increasing zonal mid-level flow will become established over the CONUS in the wake of the trough departing the East Coast today. A lee low will strengthen surface winds over parts of the Plains where warm temperatures and low humidity are expected. This could allow for some fire-weather risk over the southern High Plains and NM, though fuels remain a complicating factor. ...Southern Plains and east-central NM... As mostly zonal flow aloft pass over the central Rockies, a lee low is expected to bolster south/southwesterly flow (15-25 mph) over parts of the southern High Plains. Diurnal heating, intermixed with some mid and high-level cloud cover, should favor above normal temperatures. The warm temperatures and westerly surface flow should support gusty winds and RH below 20% across much of the southern Plains. Meteorologically elevated (and localized near critical) conditions are possible across portions of the NM highlands, eastern TX Panhandles and western OK for several hours this afternoon. The primary uncertainty precluding larger and higher categorical areas remains the availability and receptiveness of area fuels. Drying has been noted over the last several days, especially within areas devoid of heavier precipitation (TX Panhandle and western OK). ERCs are expected to gradually increase above normal, but confidence in widespread critical fuels is currently low. Still, the expected drying of fuels could support a risk of increased initial attack within short-hour fuels. Thus, an Elevated area has been added where the best overlap of receptive fuels and sustained meteorological conditions are expected across TX/OK and NM. ..Lyons.. 02/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... Increasing zonal mid-level flow will become established over the CONUS in the wake of the trough departing the East Coast today. A lee low will strengthen surface winds over parts of the Plains where warm temperatures and low humidity are expected. This could allow for some fire-weather risk over the southern High Plains and NM, though fuels remain a complicating factor. ...Southern Plains and east-central NM... As mostly zonal flow aloft pass over the central Rockies, a lee low is expected to bolster south/southwesterly flow (15-25 mph) over parts of the southern High Plains. Diurnal heating, intermixed with some mid and high-level cloud cover, should favor above normal temperatures. The warm temperatures and westerly surface flow should support gusty winds and RH below 20% across much of the southern Plains. Meteorologically elevated (and localized near critical) conditions are possible across portions of the NM highlands, eastern TX Panhandles and western OK for several hours this afternoon. The primary uncertainty precluding larger and higher categorical areas remains the availability and receptiveness of area fuels. Drying has been noted over the last several days, especially within areas devoid of heavier precipitation (TX Panhandle and western OK). ERCs are expected to gradually increase above normal, but confidence in widespread critical fuels is currently low. Still, the expected drying of fuels could support a risk of increased initial attack within short-hour fuels. Thus, an Elevated area has been added where the best overlap of receptive fuels and sustained meteorological conditions are expected across TX/OK and NM. ..Lyons.. 02/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm activity is forecast to be minimal across the U.S. on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Zonal flow pattern aloft will prevail across the U.S. on Sunday. Farther north, a short-wave trough/low is forecast to move across/out of southern portions of the Canadian Prairie into/across Ontario through the period. In tandem with this Canadian feature, a surface low is progged to cross Ontario, reaching the James Bay vicinity by Monday morning. A trailing cold front will sharpen/shift slowly southward across the northern Intermountain region/northern Plains, and eventually southeastward across the Upper Great Lakes region. With continental/stable air forecast to prevail across the country, thunderstorms are not expected CONUS-wide. ..Goss.. 02/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. today or tonight. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a trough will move into the western Atlantic today, as a trough moves through the central U.S., and flow becomes westerly over much of the nation. At the surface, high pressure will be entrenched across much of the central and eastern U.S., which will keep a dry and cool airmass in place. This will limit moisture return over the U.S. making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms today and tonight. ..Broyles/Lyons.. 02/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 PM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible tonight from parts of the Tennessee Valley to the southern Atlantic Seaboard, and along parts of the West Coast. No severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough will move through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys this evening. At the surface, a trough will move toward the southern part of the Eastern Seaboard. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the mid-level trough and near the surface trough this evening into tonight. Additional storms may occur near the coasts of northern California, Oregon and Washington ahead of a shortwave trough. No severe threat is expected through tonight across the continental U.S. ..Broyles.. 02/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 PM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible tonight from parts of the Tennessee Valley to the southern Atlantic Seaboard, and along parts of the West Coast. No severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough will move through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys this evening. At the surface, a trough will move toward the southern part of the Eastern Seaboard. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the mid-level trough and near the surface trough this evening into tonight. Additional storms may occur near the coasts of northern California, Oregon and Washington ahead of a shortwave trough. No severe threat is expected through tonight across the continental U.S. ..Broyles.. 02/01/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Jan 31 22:02:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Jan 31 22:02:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 PM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Upper-level flow will be primarily zonal across the U.S. to begin the extended period. Early next week, ridging aloft will increase across much of the U.S. east of the Divide ahead of a trough approaching the West Coast. Broad but moderate to strong cyclonic flow will then develop across the West into the Plains. Embedded shortwave troughs are also expected within the broader flow, but predictability of those features is low. At the surface, lee troughing in the southern High Plains will be a steady feature. Fuels will continue to dry in those areas under this regime. ...Southern High Plains... At least modestly dry and windy conditions are possible early to mid next week with the lee troughing expected. At present, wind speeds for much of that period appear too low to warrant any critical probabilities. By Wednesday into Thursday, deterministic and ensemble guidance suggest a deeper lee trough/low is possible in the region. Though the intensity of the surface winds will depend on the strength/timing of any shortwave trough feature, this pattern will favor an increase in dry and windy conditions in areas that will have increasing dry fuels by this point in time. The probability of critical fire weather is 40% on Wednesday afternoon. ..Wendt.. 01/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 PM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Upper-level flow will be primarily zonal across the U.S. to begin the extended period. Early next week, ridging aloft will increase across much of the U.S. east of the Divide ahead of a trough approaching the West Coast. Broad but moderate to strong cyclonic flow will then develop across the West into the Plains. Embedded shortwave troughs are also expected within the broader flow, but predictability of those features is low. At the surface, lee troughing in the southern High Plains will be a steady feature. Fuels will continue to dry in those areas under this regime. ...Southern High Plains... At least modestly dry and windy conditions are possible early to mid next week with the lee troughing expected. At present, wind speeds for much of that period appear too low to warrant any critical probabilities. By Wednesday into Thursday, deterministic and ensemble guidance suggest a deeper lee trough/low is possible in the region. Though the intensity of the surface winds will depend on the strength/timing of any shortwave trough feature, this pattern will favor an increase in dry and windy conditions in areas that will have increasing dry fuels by this point in time. The probability of critical fire weather is 40% on Wednesday afternoon. ..Wendt.. 01/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected across the United States through tonight. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was the removal of the Marginal risk area over the central Florida Panhandle and vicinity. Recent radar, satellite, and lightning trends all indicate weakening thunderstorms along the eastward-moving front, owing to very marginal lapse rates/instability and limited deeper-layer forcing for ascent. While strong background flow and earlier heating could still support locally strong gusts with showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon, the potential for organized severe storms appears low. For details on any remaining low-end/isolated risk for strong convective gusts, reference MCD #61. ..Weinman.. 01/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025/ ...Southeast AL/Southwest GA/FL Panhandle... A large, positively tilted upper trough/low is over the Mid MS Valley today, with an associated surface cold front sweeping eastward across AL/GA/FL. Southerly low-level winds ahead of the front have weakened considerably from yesterday, limiting the northward transport of Gulf moisture. Dewpoints in the 50s and lower 60s are common ahead of the front, but this only results in MUCAPE values less than 250 J/kg. One small area of slightly greater instability may occur later this afternoon over the central FL Panhandle and vicinity where visible satellite imagery shows broken clouds and more heating potential. This area remains in the MRGL risk. Later tonight, the cold front will sweep eastward across GA and the Carolinas. A combination of weak instability and limited forcing in the warm sector suggests any deep convection that can form will be along, and more likely behind, the front. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 PM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm activity is forecast to be minimal across the U.S. on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude westerly upper flow regime will persist across the CONUS on Sunday. Surface low pressure over the central Plains will result in some modest baroclinicity across the southern Plains. The resulting southerly low-level flow will transport modest Gulf moisture northward across TX, but deeper moisture will remain confined to the coast. Further north, a cold front will develop south across the northern Intermountain region and northern Plains. Cold Arctic air and strong surface high pressure will build south in the wake of the front. Given poor boundary-layer moisture and little upper-level support, thunderstorm potential appears low. ..Leitman.. 01/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 PM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm activity is forecast to be minimal across the U.S. on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude westerly upper flow regime will persist across the CONUS on Sunday. Surface low pressure over the central Plains will result in some modest baroclinicity across the southern Plains. The resulting southerly low-level flow will transport modest Gulf moisture northward across TX, but deeper moisture will remain confined to the coast. Further north, a cold front will develop south across the northern Intermountain region and northern Plains. Cold Arctic air and strong surface high pressure will build south in the wake of the front. Given poor boundary-layer moisture and little upper-level support, thunderstorm potential appears low. ..Leitman.. 01/31/2025 Read more