MD 0850 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 0850 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Areas affected...northern Mississippi Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 180735Z - 180830Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue moving east across Mississippi this morning. Large hail and damaging winds will be possible with the strongest cores, but the overall threat should remain sparse enough to preclude the need for a watch. DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms moving east out of Arkansas appears to have developed small mesoscale convective vortex. This MCV appears to be aiding thunderstorm development on its southern flank, where MUCAPE is between 2000-3000 J/kg. Given this thermodynamic environment and effective-layer shear around 50 knots, episodic updraft pulses may support isolated large hail or wind damage. However, widespread severe reports are not anticipated. ..Marsh/Smith.. 05/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN... LAT...LON 33819083 34218985 33978835 33088837 33349085 33819083 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...OHIO VALLEY...AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Ohio Valley, Mid-Mississippi Valley, and Tennessee Valley on Monday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will stall and perhaps start to retrograde across parts of the Upper Midwest on Monday. A surface low in the MO/IL region will start to occlude during the day. A cold front will move east through the period with a warm front across the Ohio Valley. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing amid broad isentropic ascent and moderate elevated instability along the warm front in southern Illinois and Indiana and vicinity on Monday morning. South of this morning activity, where upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints are anticipated, moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop amid daytime heating. As 55 to 65 knots of mid-level flow overspreads the warm sector, strong shear will be present for supercells. Large to very large hail will be the primary threat initially, as low-level flow will likely be veered. However, low-level shear should be strong enough to support some tornado threat during the afternoon/evening. As storms grow upscale, one or more bowing segments may develop with an increased damaging wind threat during the evening and perhaps persisting into the overnight period. ..Bentley.. 05/18/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough moves out of the Great Basin and into the southern Great Plains on Monday, dry down-slope winds behind a dryline in southern New Mexico into far western Texas will result in Critical fire-weather conditions. Additionally, some persistent northerly flow over central California will result in Elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of the San Joaquin valley. ...Southern New Mexico into Far Western Texas... Westerly down-slope winds in New Mexico beneath a progressive mid-level trough, along with deep boundary-layer mixing and a deepening surface cyclone, will result in widespread Critical fire-weather conditions across southern New Mexico Monday afternoon. Winds in excess of 25 MPH with relative humidity at or below 10% will overspread a region of fuels that are at or above the 90th annual ERC percentiles, and will result in conditions that support rapid wildfire ignition and spread. Some locally Extremely Critical conditions may occur, with winds in excess of 30 MPH, across portions of southern New Mexico. However, they appear too localized for highlights at this time. ...Central California... Ensemble guidance suggests that deep boundary-layer mixing beneath persistent mid-level northerly flow will result in Elevated fire-weather conditions. While fuels are on the more marginal side, 15+ MPH winds and relative humidity at or below 15% will support at least Elevated highlights. ..Halbert.. 05/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0110 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... As a mid-level shortwave trough progresses from the Four Corners to the southern High Plains, and a surface lee cyclone deepens throughout the morning and afternoon, Critical fire-weather conditions are anticipated across much of southern New Mexico. Further west, mid-level northerly flow on the western side of the trough is expected to bring Elevated fire-weather conditions to the Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys. ...Southern New Mexico... Deep boundary-layer mixing behind a sharpening dryline, along with a deepening surface cyclone and associated gradient wind response, will be responsible for widespread Critical fire-weather conditions this afternoon. Sustained winds of 25 MPH and relative humidity below 10%, along with highly receptive fuels, will result in conditions that support rapid wildfire ignition and spread. Some downslope winds in southern and eastern New Mexico may even locally reach Extremely Critical criteria, with sustained winds exceeding 30 MPH. However, such conditions appear to be too localized for larger highlights at this time. Additionally, the Critical meteorological conditions will exist well into the Texas Panhandle and portions of southern Kansas -- but ERC fuels guidance shows fuels are not quite as receptive, warranting only Elevated highlights. ...Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys... Deep boundary-layer mixing beneath modest mid-level northerly flow will result in dry and windy conditions across much of the interior California valleys. Winds of 15 MPH and relative humidity at or below 15% are expected. Fuels appear more marginal, but there is some signal for fuel receptiveness, warranting at least Elevated highlights. ..Halbert.. 05/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS.... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with all severe weather hazards are expected from the central/southern Plains into the Ozarks on Monday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will shift from the Intermountain West into the central Plains on Monday. A moderate to strong mid-level jet streak will emerge along the southern periphery of this trough from the Southwest into the central/southern Plains. A surface low in Nebraska will gradually consolidate southward and deepen as the mid-level jet emerges across the southern Plains. A sharp dryline will be present from central Kansas to central Oklahoma and north-central Texas. A warm front will extend from near Omaha to the lower Ohio Valley and remain mostly stationary during the day. ...Central/Southern Plains into the Ozarks... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along the warm front in the northern Missouri border vicinity on Monday morning. Otherwise, a mostly convection-free warm sector is expected to the south. Very strong instability will develop along and east of the dryline with convective temperatures likely reached by early afternoon. As large scale ascent ahead of the approaching trough overspreads the dryline, expect scattered supercells to develop along the dryline in Kansas and Oklahoma. Very large to potentially giant hail will be possible with these supercells initially. In addition, hodographs will support tornadoes. The tornado threat will increase through the afternoon and peak during the evening as the low-level jet strengthens and low-level shear increases. However, by this time, storm mode could be messy which is one factor precluding higher probabilities at this time. 00Z CAM guidance shows a range of solutions including: 1. Earlier storms as the primary threat. 2. Delayed dryline initiation with a potential tornado outbreak type solution across central/eastern Kansas and central/eastern Oklahoma. 3. A combination of both solutions. The uncertainty in guidance at this time precludes a moderate risk, but higher probabilities may be needed when a more favored solution becomes more clear, especially if one of the higher-end scenarios appears likely. ..Bentley.. 05/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected later today across portions of the central and southern Plains. The potential for a few strong tornadoes exists across parts of Kansas and Oklahoma. ...Central/Southern Plains... Strong upper trough is digging southeast across the Great Basin early this morning. This feature is forecast to advance into the Four Corners region by 18z as 500mb speed max translates across AZ into NM. By early evening, strongest mid-level flow is forecast to extend across northeast NM into western KS. This evolution will suppress the height field across the central High Plains such that large-scale forcing will likely influence the dry line as far south as I-40 near the TX/OK border. While several 00z models struggle to develop convection along the dry line, strong boundary-layer heating is expected across the southern High Plains. Zero-3km lapse rates will approach dry adiabatic by late afternoon as surface temperatures soar through the mid 90s across the eastern TX Panhandle into the TX South Plains. As a result, deep thermals are expected and isolated thunderstorms should develop as CINH will prove minimal. Scattered convection is currently noted across northeast OK into southeast KS/southwest MO. This activity will likely persist into the early parts of the day1 period. Strongest low-level moisture surge should be across western OK into extreme southwest KS as LLJ will focus across this portion of the Plains early in the period. While early-day convection may generate locally severe hail/wind, the primary concern for severe will be with late-day convection. Current thinking is strong heating along the dry line will prove instrumental in thunderstorm development as convective temperatures are breached, sometime after 22z. Primary corridor for initiation should be across southwest KS into northwest OK. This activity will be strongly sheared and supercells should mature quickly as they move northeast toward/across the warm front draped downstream across KS. Very large hail and tornadoes are certainly a concern with surface-based convection, while hail is the primary concern with elevated convection north of the warm front. It's not entirely clear how much convection will develop along the dry line south of I40, especially across TX. However, minimal inhibition warrants concern, as any updrafts that evolve within a strongly sheared and buoyant air mass should produce at least large hail. Farther north, left-exit region of mid-level jet will encourage a secondary corridor of strong/severe thunderstorms from northeast CO into western NE. Surface low is expected to track across eastern CO into western KS which will maintain a moist/upslope component to boundary layer across this portion of the High Plains. Strong low-level warm advection will assist organized convection as it spreads northeast during the overnight hours. ..Darrow/Halbert.. 05/18/2025 Read more

WW 0282 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 282 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 SSW LLQ TO 35 NNE TXK TO 35 NNE DEQ. ..BROYLES..05/18/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 282 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC019-025-039-051-053-059-097-109-127-180540- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK CLEVELAND DALLAS GARLAND GRANT HOT SPRING MONTGOMERY PIKE SCOTT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0283 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 283 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..05/18/25 ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 283 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC033-131-143-180540- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRAWFORD SEBASTIAN WASHINGTON OKC001-011-015-017-021-027-037-047-051-061-063-073-077-079-081- 083-087-091-093-101-103-107-109-111-117-119-121-125-127-133-135- 143-145-180540- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR BLAINE CADDO CANADIAN CHEROKEE CLEVELAND CREEK GARFIELD GRADY HASKELL HUGHES KINGFISHER LATIMER LE FLORE LINCOLN LOGAN MCCLAIN MCINTOSH MAJOR MUSKOGEE NOBLE OKFUSKEE OKLAHOMA OKMULGEE PAWNEE PAYNE PITTSBURG POTTAWATOMIE PUSHMATAHA SEMINOLE SEQUOYAH TULSA WAGONER Read more

WW 283 SEVERE TSTM AR OK 180250Z - 180900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 283 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 950 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Far Western Arkansas Central and Eastern Oklahoma * Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 950 PM until 400 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Mainly elevated thunderstorms should continue to pose a threat for large hail this evening into the early overnight hours. The largest hailstones may reach up to 1-2 inches in diameter. There is also some chance for a cluster of thunderstorms to form over the next few hours. If this occurs, then the threat for severe/damaging winds would increase as well. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles northwest of Chickasha OK to 5 miles east southeast of Fort Smith AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 279...WW 280...WW 281...WW 282... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 28035. ...Gleason Read more

MD 0848 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 282... FOR ARK-LA-TEX
Mesoscale Discussion 0848 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0953 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Areas affected...Ark-La-Tex Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 282... Valid 180253Z - 180500Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 282 continues. SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat will likely continue across the Ark-La-Tex over the next few hours. Wind damage and hail will be the primary threats. DISCUSSION...A couple of severe storms are currently ongoing in southeast Oklahoma, according to mosaic radar imagery. The activity is located along and near an axis of moderate instability, where MLCAPE is estimated to be in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range, according to the RAP. The convection is being supported by a subtle shortwave trough, evident on water vapor imagery over the Ark-La-Tex. In addition, the Shreveport WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 km shear near 55 knots. Forecast soundings late this evening in the Ark-La-Tex have steep low to mid-level lapse rates suggesting that a wind-damage threat will continue. Hail could also occur. The threat should become more isolated with time as instability gradually decreases, and as a weak capping inversion increases. ..Broyles.. 05/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 34349332 33809276 33289287 32999327 32979374 33149447 33609522 34049562 34509571 34959535 35009479 34699398 34349332 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0282 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 282 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE PRX TO 30 N SHV TO 20 NNE MLU. ..BROYLES..05/18/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 282 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC011-013-019-025-027-039-051-053-057-059-061-073-081-091-097- 099-103-109-113-127-133-139-180440- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRADLEY CALHOUN CLARK CLEVELAND COLUMBIA DALLAS GARLAND GRANT HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING HOWARD LAFAYETTE LITTLE RIVER MILLER MONTGOMERY NEVADA OUACHITA PIKE POLK SCOTT SEVIER UNION LAC027-111-180440- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE CLAIBORNE UNION OKC089-180440- Read more

WW 282 SEVERE TSTM AR LA OK TX 180045Z - 180700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 282 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 745 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest and South-Central Arkansas Northern Louisiana Far Southeast Oklahoma Northeast Texas * Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 745 PM until 200 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Multiple clusters and supercells should spread generally eastward this evening and overnight while posing a threat for both large hail around 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter and severe/damaging winds up to 60-70 mph. A tornado or two may also occur. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles north and south of a line from 65 miles north northwest of Longview TX to 30 miles north of Monroe LA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 278...WW 279...WW 280...WW 281... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0283 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 283 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..05/18/25 ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 283 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC033-131-143-180440- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRAWFORD SEBASTIAN WASHINGTON OKC001-011-015-017-021-027-037-047-051-061-063-073-077-079-081- 083-087-091-093-101-103-107-109-111-117-119-121-125-127-133-135- 143-145-180440- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR BLAINE CADDO CANADIAN CHEROKEE CLEVELAND CREEK GARFIELD GRADY HASKELL HUGHES KINGFISHER LATIMER LE FLORE LINCOLN LOGAN MCCLAIN MCINTOSH MAJOR MUSKOGEE NOBLE OKFUSKEE OKLAHOMA OKMULGEE PAWNEE PAYNE PITTSBURG POTTAWATOMIE PUSHMATAHA SEMINOLE SEQUOYAH TULSA WAGONER Read more

MD 0845 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR ARK-LA-TEX
Mesoscale Discussion 0845 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0641 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Areas affected...Ark-La-Tex Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 172341Z - 180215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A wind-damage, large hail and isolated tornado threat is expected to develop across parts of the Ark-La-Tex early this evening. Weather watch issuance will likely be needed. DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery from Fort Worth, Texas shows multiple clusters of severe storms across northeast Texas. The storms are located along the western edge of a pocket of strong to extreme instability, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 4500 to 5500 J/kg range. Water vapor imagery suggests that a shortwave trough is moving through north-central Texas. Large-scale ascent associated with this feature will support the continued development of strong thunderstorms. Short-term forecasts, including the HRRR, move these storms east-northeastward into the Ark-La-Tex over the next few hours. In the Ark-La-Tex, the latest RAP shows steep low-level lapse rates between 7.5 and 8 C/km, along with moderate deep-layer shear. This is evident on the Shreveport WSR-88D VWP which has 0-6 km shear near 50 knots. This environment will likely be favorable for a severe threat with wind damage and large hail possible. An isolated tornado could also develop. ..Broyles.. 05/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD... LAT...LON 34629278 34869367 34859443 34459505 33629536 32869518 32519454 32399371 32509288 33039236 33749216 34299225 34629278 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 0846 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 278...280... FOR CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0846 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Areas affected...Central Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 278...280... Valid 172343Z - 180115Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 278, 280 continues. SUMMARY...While convective coverage remains relatively low, some new thunderstorm development could potentially pose a risk for hail and damaging winds. DISCUSSION...Convective coverage across WW 280 remains relatively low. However, additional thunderstorm development has occurred over central Texas, with fairly robust echo tops around 45 kft and higher reflectivity cores. However, this storm is moving into an area of convective outflow. It is uncertain if thunderstorm activity will persist -- albeit, rooted above the boundary layer -- or dissipate as it enters the colder air. Still, as this storm moves northward into WW 278, it may pose an additional risk for severe hail and damaging winds. ..Halbert.. 05/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 30790030 31129976 31589922 32049881 32179822 32199760 31789713 31559730 31209737 30779779 30479844 30209923 30289985 30540026 30790030 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

MD 0847 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 279... FOR OKLAHOMA...NORTH TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0847 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Areas affected...Oklahoma...North Texas Concerning...Tornado Watch 279... Valid 180040Z - 180245Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 279 continues. SUMMARY...A severe threat will likely continue across part of western, central and southeastern Oklahoma over the next few hours. Large hail potentially over 2 inches in diameter, severe wind gusts, and tornadoes will be possible. DISCUSSION...The latest hi-resolution radar imagery from KTLX shows a supercell in southeast Oklahoma, and a second supercell near the Red River. These severe storms are located near a bullseye in instability, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 4000 to 5000 J/kg range. In addition, the Fort Smith, AR WSR-88D VWP has a looping hodograph, with strong directional shear in the low-levels, and 0-6 km shear near 50 knots. This environment will be favorable for supercells, with tornado and large hail potential. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter be possible within the more intense cores. Over the next hour, a storm merger will be possible in southeast Oklahoma. Although it is uncertain how this will affect the severe threat, a local increase in damaging winds will be possible as the merger takes place. Northwestward into parts of central and northwest Oklahoma, short-term forecasts suggest that a small severe convective cluster will form and progress eastward this evening, along and near the warm front. For this reason, a threat for large hail and wind damage is expected to develop in the northwestern part of the watch over the next hour or two. ..Broyles.. 05/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 33929528 33669611 33819719 34139839 34779969 35359997 35899993 36299946 36369821 35579622 34779528 33929528 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0803 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms producing large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes remain possible across the southern Plains into the Arklatex region. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor suggests a weak short-wave trough has advanced into the high Plains, extending from southwest KS into the eastern TX Panhandle. This feature is partly responsible for drawing richer boundary-layer moisture into northwest OK. Latest surface analysis suggests a well-defined warm front currently extends across south-central OK to near GAG in Ellis County. Low-level warm advection is focused along/north of this wind shift, and some nocturnal increase in 850mb flow could aid upscale growth to ongoing convection over the northeast TX Panhandle. This activity should propagate downstream within the warm-advection zone, primarily across the northern half of OK. Additional strong/severe thunderstorm clusters persist from southeast OK into northeast TX. 00z sounding from SHV exhibits a very buoyant air mass characterized by 0-6km bulk shear on the order of 45kt. Organized convection should propagate in a general eastward direction, along the warm advection corridor, across the Arklatex. Hail/wind threat continues. ..Darrow.. 05/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0803 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms producing large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes remain possible across the southern Plains into the Arklatex region. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor suggests a weak short-wave trough has advanced into the high Plains, extending from southwest KS into the eastern TX Panhandle. This feature is partly responsible for drawing richer boundary-layer moisture into northwest OK. Latest surface analysis suggests a well-defined warm front currently extends across south-central OK to near GAG in Ellis County. Low-level warm advection is focused along/north of this wind shift, and some nocturnal increase in 850mb flow could aid upscale growth to ongoing convection over the northeast TX Panhandle. This activity should propagate downstream within the warm-advection zone, primarily across the northern half of OK. Additional strong/severe thunderstorm clusters persist from southeast OK into northeast TX. 00z sounding from SHV exhibits a very buoyant air mass characterized by 0-6km bulk shear on the order of 45kt. Organized convection should propagate in a general eastward direction, along the warm advection corridor, across the Arklatex. Hail/wind threat continues. ..Darrow.. 05/18/2025 Read more

WW 0281 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 281 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW GWO TO 25 NNW MLU. ..HALBERT..05/18/25 ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 281 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC003-017-041-043-180140- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLEY CHICOT DESHA DREW LAC035-067-123-180140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE EAST CARROLL MOREHOUSE WEST CARROLL MSC011-051-053-055-083-125-133-151-163-180140- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOLIVAR HOLMES HUMPHREYS ISSAQUENA LEFLORE SHARKEY SUNFLOWER WASHINGTON YAZOO Read more

WW 0281 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 281 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW GWO TO 25 NNW MLU. ..HALBERT..05/18/25 ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 281 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC003-017-041-043-180140- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLEY CHICOT DESHA DREW LAC035-067-123-180140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE EAST CARROLL MOREHOUSE WEST CARROLL MSC011-051-053-055-083-125-133-151-163-180140- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOLIVAR HOLMES HUMPHREYS ISSAQUENA LEFLORE SHARKEY SUNFLOWER WASHINGTON YAZOO Read more