WW 260 SEVERE TSTM DE MD NJ PA CW 161405Z - 162100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 260 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1005 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Delaware Far Eastern Maryland New Jersey Far Eastern Pennsylvania Coastal Waters * Effective this Friday morning and afternoon from 1005 AM until 500 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms continue to strengthen as they move into more of eastern PA and eastern MD. Destabilization is expected downstream, with the resulting combination of instability and shear supportive of supercells capable of large hail and damaging gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles northwest of Trenton NJ to 45 miles south of Dover DE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 259... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Mosier Read more

WW 0259 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 259 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW JBR TO 35 ESE POF TO 45 WSW OWB TO 30 SW SDF. ..LEITMAN..05/16/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...PAH...LMK...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 259 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC093-161440- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MISSISSIPPI ILC127-161440- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MASSAC INC025-161440- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRAWFORD KYC001-003-005-007-009-017-021-029-031-033-035-039-045-047-049- Read more

WW 259 SEVERE TSTM AR IL IN KY MO TN 160725Z - 161400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 259 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 225 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of North-central and Northeast Arkansas Southern Illinois Southwest Indiana Western Kentucky Southeast Missouri Northwest Tennessee * Effective this Friday morning from 225 AM until 900 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop and move rapidly northeast across the watch area early this morning. Large hail and damaging thunderstorm gusts will be the primary severe weather hazard, although a tornado or two will also be possible.Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop and move rapidly northeast across the watch area early this morning. Large hail and damaging thunderstorm gusts will be the primary severe weather hazard, although a tornado or two will also be possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles south southwest of Flippin AR to 20 miles north northeast of Bowling Green KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 24045. ...Bunting Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...SOUTHWEST OHIO...NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is likely this afternoon into tonight across parts of the mid Mississippi, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. This will include intense supercells associated with tornadoes, large hail and wind damage. Several strong tornadoes are expected, and a long-track high-end tornado will be possible. From the evening into the overnight, a bowing line segment is expected to form with potential for tornadoes and damaging winds, some possibly greater than 75 mph. ...Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valley/Tennessee Valley Region... As an upper-level low near the MN/ND border shifts east today, a mid-level jet streak will move from the Plains into the mid-Mississippi Valley. A surface cold front will move east across the Great Lakes, Midwest and OH/TN Valley region this afternoon and tonight. An expansive warm/moist sector will destabilize during the day, setting the stage for a regional severe weather outbreak this afternoon and tonight. Scattered severe thunderstorms, with a history of large hail, were ongoing at 13z from northeast AR into eastern KY. Clusters of severe storms, including supercells, will continue moving northeast within this corridor through at least early afternoon. The eventual longevity of these storms remains uncertain, however downstream diurnal destabilization could allow storms with a severe hail/wind threat to move into WV/western VA this afternoon. In the wake of these morning storms, destabilization will occur as a warm front lifts north, with strong instability (MLCAPE in excess of 2500 J/kg) developing from portions of eastern MO east into the OH/TN Valley region, and south in advance of the front into eastern TX. The presence of strong mid-level flow will contribute to deep-layer shear averaging 50 kts or higher across a large area. Vigorous redevelopment of severe storms is expected by early afternoon across southern/eastern MO as height falls overspread the area. More isolated development is expected southward along the cold front towards 00Z. Initial storm development will strongly favor supercell storm mode with all severe hazards possible, including the potential for strong tornadoes across the Moderate/Enhanced Risk areas where low-level shear will be strongest. Large to very large hail will also be possible with mature supercells this afternoon through early evening. As storms continue moving east across the OH/TN Valley region, eventual upscale growth into multiple bowing segments is expected. The tornado threat will continue, especially with QLCS circulations, and significant severe gusts will also be possible. ...Ark-La-Tex/Lower Mississippi Valley... Warm mid-level temperatures will tend to delay thunderstorm initiation along the southward-trailing cold front into northeast TX until later in the day, however at least isolated development is expected towards 22z-00z. MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg and 45-55 kts of deep-layer shear oriented favorably relative to the front suggests a supercell mode with large to very large hail, along with damaging gusts. Although weaker low-level shear will be present in this area, some potential for a tornado will exist with any mature supercell. With time, storms may increase in coverage and begin to cluster in an environment favorable for a continued severe wind/hail threat. ...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic/northern DelMarVa Peninsula... As the southern portion of the long-lived MCS over PA/NY continues moving east/southeast today, the potential will exist for re-development of organized storms, including supercells, over portions of southeast PA/southern NJ and the northern DelMarVa peninsula. With moderate west/northwest flow in place to the east of the upper level ridge, RAP/HRRR forecast soundings depict sufficient deep shear and moderate instability for a severe hail and wind risk. Some consideration was given for higher severe probabilities in this area, however uncertainty remains on the location of a corridor of greater risk. ..Bunting/Marsh.. 05/16/2025 Read more

WW 0259 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 259 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LEITMAN..05/16/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...PAH...LMK...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 259 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC005-021-023-029-031-045-049-055-063-065-067-075-089-093-111- 121-129-135-137-141-145-161240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAXTER CLAY CLEBURNE CONWAY CRAIGHEAD FAULKNER FULTON GREENE INDEPENDENCE IZARD JACKSON LAWRENCE MARION MISSISSIPPI POINSETT RANDOLPH SEARCY SHARP STONE VAN BUREN WHITE ILC003-059-069-087-127-151-153-165-181-199-161240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER GALLATIN HARDIN JOHNSON MASSAC POPE PULASKI SALINE UNION WILLIAMSON Read more

MD 0806 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 259... FOR NORTHEAST AR/SOUTHEAST MO INTO PARTS OF KY/TN...WV AND WESTERN VA
Mesoscale Discussion 0806 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0635 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Areas affected...northeast AR/southeast MO into parts of KY/TN...WV and western VA Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 259... Valid 161135Z - 161330Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 259 continues. SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms posing a risk for large to very large hail will persist across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 259. This activity may maintain severity downstream into eastern Kentucky and portions of West Virginia and western Virginia. A new watch may be needed to replace WW 259 and to expand downstream. DISCUSSION...Scattered severe thunderstorm clusters are ongoing this morning from northeast AR into central KY. This activity is occurring in a warm advection regime and on the fringes of an 850 mb southwesterly low-level jet. While some inhibition is present in the low-levels given the nocturnally cooled boundary layer, MUCAPE from 1000-2000 J/kg is in place amid a moist airmass. Elongated/straight supercell profiles and cool temperatures aloft also are present. Thus, a large hail threat will accompany any more discrete convection. Recent radar trends suggest clustering may be underway near the MO Bootheel and into western KY. If this continues, convection could develop into a small MCS and move across KY toward WV/VA, posing a risk for strong/severe wind gusts as well as the downstream airmass destabilizes and inhibition erodes later this morning as diurnal heating ensues. An isolated cell also is approaching the edge of WW 259 across central KY and a downstream watch and/or larger watch replacement may be needed soon. ..Leitman.. 05/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...PAH... MEG...LZK...SGF... LAT...LON 36099212 37318926 38118690 38378469 38378276 38018181 37338153 36908156 36618216 36488344 36098828 35479074 35229206 35259222 35619238 36099212 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Monday - Central/Southern Plains into the Midwest... A very moist and unstable environment will be present east of a dryline across Kansas and Oklahoma on Monday morning. A surface low across Kansas/Nebraska will weaken through the day and reconcentrate farther south as a negatively tilted mid-level shortwave trough moves into the central/southern Plains. The evolution of the upper pattern will have some impact on the location and severity of the severe weather threat on Monday. Despite these uncertainties, height falls across a sharp dryline with a strongly unstable and uncapped warm sector and supercell wind profiles should support severe storms along and east of I-35 in Oklahoma and into southeast Kansas. All severe weather hazards will be possible from any supercells which mature on Monday. Storms will be possible farther north across eastern Kansas and western Missouri, but storm intensity is less clear given weaker instability and messier storm mode along the warm frontal zone. In addition, some elevated hail will be possible north of the warm front into southeast Nebraska and Iowa. ...D5/Tuesday... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across the Midwest and perhaps as far south as eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. These storms and their associated cloud cover will have significant impact on destabilization across a broad warm sector on Tuesday. A deepening mid-level low will develop across the Plains and start to advance east on Tuesday. A strong mid-level jet streak along the southern periphery of this upper low will overspread the warm sector providing ample shear for storm organization. Storm intensity remains uncertain on Tuesday due to antecedent precipitation/cloud cover and differences in model guidance. However, a broad region of strong to severe storms appears possible from East Texas to northern Missouri and central Illinois on Tuesday. ...Day 6-8... A few strong to severe storms are possible on Day 6/Wednesday across the Carolinas before the cold front moves offshore. Storm coverage/intensity remains unclear at this time given the prior 2 days of storms and uncertainties in the upper-level pattern from global guidance. Therefore, no probabilities are warranted at this time. Beyond Day 6, severe weather concerns lessen as quality moisture is mostly shunted offshore across the CONUS as a cold front surges into the Gulf/Atlantic. Read more

MD 0803 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST OHIO...NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...AND WESTERN NEW YORK
Mesoscale Discussion 0803 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Areas affected...northeast Ohio...northwest Pennsylvania...and western New York Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 160831Z - 161000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Long-lived thunderstorms continue to slowly weaken as they move east. Brief gusty winds and small hail will be possible in the short term. A watch is not expected. DISCUSSION...Morning radar imagery shows a long-lived MCS continuing to move east across Lake Erie. The environment ahead of the MCS across the highlighted region rapidly becomes less supportive of severe thunderstorms as compared to the environment last evening across Michigan. This less favorable environment should support a continued downward trend in convective intensity as MUCAPE and Effective Layer Shear both drop off with eastward extend across the highlighted area. Satellite imagery bears this out as cloud tops warm across much of the MCS. The exception to this cloud top warming is the far southern cell/storm moving into Eerie County, OH. Brief gusty winds and small hail may be possible for the next hour or so with this cell as it continues to move east. Additional thunderstorms may develop later this morning along/ahead of the MCS, but the overall environment should remain unsupportive of an organized severe threat. Given the unfavorable environment for an organized severe threat, a watch is not anticipated across the area. ..Marsh/Bunting.. 05/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE... LAT...LON 41388281 43728040 43667899 42537752 40697875 41388281 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 0802 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL ARKANSAS NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 0802 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Areas affected...central Arkansas northeastward into western Kentucky Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 160646Z - 160845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop this morning across portions of central/northern Arkansas. The overall environment will support large hail and gusty winds, although a tornadoes cannot be ruled out. DISCUSSION...A slowly advancing cold front will continue to move east/southeast across the region this morning. Scattered convective showers continue to percolate across Arkansas along this boundary. The airmass along and ahead of the front is highly sheared and quite unstable, with effective layer shear in excess of 60 knots and MUCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg. Despite this favorable environment, the convective showers have failed to turn the corner into robust deep convection. That said, 00Z HREF members and recent HRRR runs are insistent that deep convection will eventually develop across portions of Arkansas this morning. The most likely area would be across west-central into north-central Arkansas where latest mesoanalysis data suggests a weakening of the convective inhibition. Should this occur, the large-scale environment will be conducive for severe thunderstorms, with the primary hazard being large hail. However, given the very moist low-level environment, degree of instability, and effective-layer shear, tornadoes cannot be ruled out. The area will continue to be monitored for signs that deep convection is imminent at which point a watch will be needed. ..Marsh/Bunting.. 05/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF... LAT...LON 35219390 36899104 37618940 38138780 37618671 36138741 34119170 34069363 35219390 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 0804 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST OHIO...NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...AND WESTERN NEW YORK
Mesoscale Discussion 0804 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Areas affected...northeast Ohio...northwest Pennsylvania...and western New York Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 160838Z - 161015Z CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC TEXT AND COUNTY LOCATION Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Long-lived thunderstorms continue to slowly weaken as they move east. Brief gusty winds and small hail will be possible in the short term. A watch is not expected. DISCUSSION...Morning radar imagery shows a long-lived MCS continuing to move east across Lake Erie. The environment ahead of the MCS across the highlighted region rapidly becomes less supportive of severe thunderstorms as compared to the environment last evening across Michigan. This less favorable environment should support a continued downward trend in convective intensity as MUCAPE and Effective Layer Shear both drop off with eastward extend across the highlighted area. Satellite imagery bears this out as cloud tops warm across much of the MCS. The exception to this cloud top warming is the far southern cell/storm moving into Eerie County, PA. Brief gusty winds and small hail may be possible for the next hour or so with this cell as it continues to move east. Additional thunderstorms may develop later this morning along/ahead of the MCS, but the overall environment should remain unsupportive of an organized severe threat. Given the unfavorable environment for an organized severe threat, a watch is not anticipated across the area. ..Marsh/Bunting.. 05/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE... LAT...LON 41388281 43728040 43667899 42537752 40697875 41388281 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS AND FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected on Sunday across portions of the central and southern Plains. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue to amplify across the Intermountain West on Sunday with a leading mid-level shortwave trough forecast to emerge into the central Plains during the afternoon and evening. At the surface, a low 990s mb surface low is forecast to develop in the eastern Colorado/western Kansas vicinity. A dryline will extend south from this surface low with a warm front extending east into the Southeast. ...Central/Southern Plains... Low to mid 70s dewpoints will advect poleward east of a sharpening dryline across the central Plains Sunday morning/early afternoon. This, combined with strong heating, will result in strong to very strong instability across Oklahoma and into southern Kansas with moderate to strong instability across eastern Kansas. As a mid-level shortwave trough emerges over the Plains, inhibition will erode along the dryline with storm development possible during the afternoon. Deep layer shear will support supercells as the primary storm mode with potential for large hail. As the low-level jet strengthens through the day, the low-level hodographs will elongate and result in an increasing tornado threat, including the potential for strong tornadoes. Confidence in storm coverage is highest across Kansas near the triple point. While some uncertainty remains where the warm front/dryline intersection will be, it will likely be somewhere near central Kansas. An enhanced risk (Level 3 out of 5) has been added across Kansas and into northern Oklahoma where the confidence for storm coverage is highest. However, it is important to note that storms could be equally as intense within the slight risk area across Oklahoma as storm coverage concerns are the only limiting factor to higher severe weather probabilities at this time. ...Southeast... Isolated storms will be possible along the frontal zone from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Southeast. Moderate to strong instability and strong shear will be in place along the frontal zone. However, forcing should be weak, so storm coverage is uncertain at this time. ..Bentley.. 05/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS AND FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected on Sunday across portions of the central and southern Plains. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue to amplify across the Intermountain West on Sunday with a leading mid-level shortwave trough forecast to emerge into the central Plains during the afternoon and evening. At the surface, a low 990s mb surface low is forecast to develop in the eastern Colorado/western Kansas vicinity. A dryline will extend south from this surface low with a warm front extending east into the Southeast. ...Central/Southern Plains... Low to mid 70s dewpoints will advect poleward east of a sharpening dryline across the central Plains Sunday morning/early afternoon. This, combined with strong heating, will result in strong to very strong instability across Oklahoma and into southern Kansas with moderate to strong instability across eastern Kansas. As a mid-level shortwave trough emerges over the Plains, inhibition will erode along the dryline with storm development possible during the afternoon. Deep layer shear will support supercells as the primary storm mode with potential for large hail. As the low-level jet strengthens through the day, the low-level hodographs will elongate and result in an increasing tornado threat, including the potential for strong tornadoes. Confidence in storm coverage is highest across Kansas near the triple point. While some uncertainty remains where the warm front/dryline intersection will be, it will likely be somewhere near central Kansas. An enhanced risk (Level 3 out of 5) has been added across Kansas and into northern Oklahoma where the confidence for storm coverage is highest. However, it is important to note that storms could be equally as intense within the slight risk area across Oklahoma as storm coverage concerns are the only limiting factor to higher severe weather probabilities at this time. ...Southeast... Isolated storms will be possible along the frontal zone from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Southeast. Moderate to strong instability and strong shear will be in place along the frontal zone. However, forcing should be weak, so storm coverage is uncertain at this time. ..Bentley.. 05/16/2025 Read more

WW 0259 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0259 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA AND WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A low-latitude midlevel trough, accompanied by a 60-kt southwesterly speed maximum, will advance northeastward from northern MX across southern NM during the afternoon. In response, a weak lee cyclone/trough will deepen over the southern High Plains. ...Southern New Mexico... Along the northern periphery of mid/high-level clouds extending from north-central MX into West TX, mostly clear skies and dry/downslope trajectories will support deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced southwesterly flow aloft across southern NM. Additionally, a modest pressure gradient peripheral to the lee cyclone/trough will contribute to 20-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). These strong/gusty winds, combined with single-digit RH and middle 80s F temperatures, will yield critical fire-weather conditions atop increasingly receptive fuels. ..Weinman.. 05/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA AND WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A low-latitude midlevel trough, accompanied by a 60-kt southwesterly speed maximum, will advance northeastward from northern MX across southern NM during the afternoon. In response, a weak lee cyclone/trough will deepen over the southern High Plains. ...Southern New Mexico... Along the northern periphery of mid/high-level clouds extending from north-central MX into West TX, mostly clear skies and dry/downslope trajectories will support deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced southwesterly flow aloft across southern NM. Additionally, a modest pressure gradient peripheral to the lee cyclone/trough will contribute to 20-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). These strong/gusty winds, combined with single-digit RH and middle 80s F temperatures, will yield critical fire-weather conditions atop increasingly receptive fuels. ..Weinman.. 05/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... Within the base of a deep mid/upper-level low moving across the Upper MS Valley, a 70-kt southwesterly speed maximum will emerge over the Midwest during the afternoon. Beneath the core of the midlevel jet, strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread parts of northern IL -- where diurnal heating amid a dry antecedent air mass will promote deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft. As a result, temperatures will climb into the 80s F, while RH falls to around 25-30 percent. These warm/dry conditions, combined with 20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts), will favor elevated fire-weather conditions over areas that missed out on precipitation over the past 24 hours. ..Weinman.. 05/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... Within the base of a deep mid/upper-level low moving across the Upper MS Valley, a 70-kt southwesterly speed maximum will emerge over the Midwest during the afternoon. Beneath the core of the midlevel jet, strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread parts of northern IL -- where diurnal heating amid a dry antecedent air mass will promote deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft. As a result, temperatures will climb into the 80s F, while RH falls to around 25-30 percent. These warm/dry conditions, combined with 20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts), will favor elevated fire-weather conditions over areas that missed out on precipitation over the past 24 hours. ..Weinman.. 05/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0128 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Mid-Mississippi, Ohio and Tennessee Valley Region this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Central and western Kentucky East-central and southeast Missouri Southern Illinois Southern Indiana Northern Tennessee Northeast Arkansas Southwest Ohio * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Several tornadoes, a few intense Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is likely this afternoon into tonight across parts of the mid Mississippi, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. This will include intense supercells associated with tornadoes, large hail and wind damage. Several strong tornadoes are expected, and a long-track high-end tornado will be possible. From the evening into the overnight, a bowing line segment is expected to form with the potential for tornadoes and damaging winds, with some gusts possibly greater than 75 mph. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO ARKANSAS AND OVER PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday across parts of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, and across parts of the southeastern Great Plains to Lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A mid-level low centered across the western Great Lakes Saturday morning will shift east through the day and move over the Northeast by 12Z Sunday. Moderate to strong mid-level flow will expand south from the southern Great Lakes to the Southeast. Farther west, a weakening mid-level shortwave trough will advance from northern Mexico into the Southern Plains. A mid-level jet streak associated with this mid-level shortwave trough will overspread portions of central/northern Texas and into Oklahoma on Saturday. A strong mid-level jet streak will move into the Intermountain West on Saturday and amplify a trough across the western CONUS. ...Mid Atlantic to the Northeast... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across portions of the Upper Ohio Valley and eastern Great Lakes. This convection and cloudcover associated with it, casts considerable uncertainty on destabilization, particularly across the Northeast. However, mid-60s dewpoints are anticipated ahead of the cold front as it moves eastward through the day. This moisture, combined with cooling temperatures aloft. Could be sufficient for damaging wind gusts and perhaps isolated large hail. The most favorable zone for severe storms will likely exist across eastern North Carolina into southeast Virginia. This zone is far enough south to likely remain mostly cloud free which will promote surface heating and destabilization. In addition, the stronger mid-level flow is forecast to overspread this region which would support storm organization and the potential for supercells. Given the greater instability and shear with potential for supercell storm mode, large hail and damaging wind gusts appear most likely within this region. ...Southeast... The cold front will likely become stalled across the Southeast on Saturday. South of this front, moderate to strong instability is forecast with 50 knots of flow parallel to the boundary. Forcing will remain weak along this boundary with minimal surface convergence and mostly neutral heights aloft. Therefore, storms are possible along this boundary, and could be supercellular if they form, but coverage should be isolated if any storms form at all given the weak forcing. ...Central Texas into Oklahoma, Arkansas, and northern Louisiana... Moderate to strong instability is forecast across central/northern Texas Saturday afternoon as temperatures warm into the low 80s with dewpoints in the low 70s and 500mb temperatures around -10C. Weak large scale forcing will overspread the dryline during the afternoon as a right entrance region of the upper-level jet overspreads northern Texas. Any subtle large scale forcing will likely be sufficient for rapid storm development along the uncapped dryline/triple point in north-central Texas by mid-afternoon. Large hail (some 2+ inch) will be the initial threat from supercells along the dryline. However, CAM signals suggest a combination of left and right-moving supercells congealing into a cluster/MCS rather quickly with an increasing severe wind threat. These mode concerns limit higher hail/tornado probabilities at this time, despite a very unstable and strongly sheared environment across the region. Additional supercells may develop Saturday evening and into early Sunday morning across eastern Oklahoma into the Ozarks as isentropic ascent increases with the strengthening low-level jet. These storms will pose a primary threat of large hail. ...Utah into Southeast Idaho and Southwest Wyoming... Rapidly cooling temperatures aloft across the Great Basin on Saturday will result in weak destabilization and numerous storms. A deep, well-mixed boundary layer will support the potential for severe wind gusts from the stronger cores. ..Bentley.. 05/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF KENTUCKY...NORTHERN AND WESTERN TENNESSEE...SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...FAR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN INDIANA...FAR SOUTHWEST OHIO... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is likely this afternoon into tonight across parts of the mid Mississippi, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. This will include intense supercells associated with tornadoes, large hail and wind damage. Several strong tornadoes are expected, and a long-track high-end tornado will be possible. From the evening into the overnight, a bowing line segment is expected to form with potential for tornadoes and damaging winds, some possibly greater than 75 mph. ...Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valley/Tennessee Valley... A negatively-tilted mid-level trough will move through the Upper Midwest and mid Mississippi Valley today, as an associated 75 to 90 knot mid-level jet translates northeastward into the Ozarks. At the surface, a low will move into the western Great Lakes, as a cold front advances eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. A very moist airmass will remain in place ahead of the front, extending eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Across this airmass, surface dewpoints will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s F. Warming surface temperatures will result in moderate to strong destabilization across much of the moist sector by afternoon. An area of low-level convergence is expected to become increasingly focused from the Ozarks into the mid Mississippi Valley. This will result in the initiation of scattered strong to severe storms around midday. Several convective clusters are expected to organize and move eastward into the lower Ohio Valley during the afternoon. Storm coverage will expand markedly during the late afternoon and early evening as low-level flow increases across the region. Concerning the thermodynamic environment, a pristine airmass is expected to be in place by afternoon. Model forecasts are in good agreement that MLCAPE will peak from 3000 to 4000 J/kg from parts of the Ozarks eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. As instability increases, deep-layer shear and lift are also expected to increase as a mid-level jet approaches from the west. Ahead of this feature, an 850 mb jet is forecast to develop over the mid Mississippi Valley. This jet will gradually increase in strength into the 45 to 65 knot range, moving eastward into western Kentucky by late afternoon. Near the axis of the low-level jet at Paducah, RAP forecast soundings at 23Z have MLCAPE near 3500 J/kg, 0-6 km shear around 60 knots, and low to mid-level lapse rates near 7 C/km. 0-3 km helicity is forecast to be between 225 and 250 m2/s2. This environment will support supercells and tornadoes. Several strong tornadoes appear likely, and a high-end long-track tornado will be possible from far southeast Missouri, into southern Illinois and southern Indiana, southward into western Kentucky and far northern Tennessee. During the late afternoon, storm coverage is expected to become widespread across the moist sector. Several supercell clusters will move eastward from the mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Steep mid-level lapse rates will promote large hail development. The more intense cores may have hailstones between 2 and 4 inches in diameter. Supercells will also be capable of producing damaging wind gusts. During the early evening, the wind-damage threat is expected to increase as some of the convective clusters gradually transition into more linear structures. Winds could exceed 75 mph along the leading edge of these faster-moving bowing line segments. During the evening, multiple bow echos are expected to form that will result in extensive wind damage swaths. Wind damage is expected across a broad area, including parts of the mid Mississippi, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the central Appalachian mountains. ...Ark-La-Tex/Lower Mississippi Valley... A very moist airmass will be in place today across the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley. Surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F will result in moderate to strong destabilization across much of this airmass. A capping inversion is expected to be in place for much of the day, but should weaken late in the afternoon as a mid-level jet moves eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. The southern edge of the jet will help to increase large-scale ascent, aiding convective development. In response, a few clusters of storms will form and move eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley during the late afternoon and early evening. In areas that strongly destabilize, storms could be capable of producing large hail and wind damage. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with intense supercell cores. ..Broyles/Weinman.. 05/16/2025 Read more