SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS AND FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected on Sunday across portions of the central and southern Plains. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue to amplify across the Intermountain West on Sunday with a leading mid-level shortwave trough forecast to emerge into the central Plains during the afternoon and evening. At the surface, a low 990s mb surface low is forecast to develop in the eastern Colorado/western Kansas vicinity. A dryline will extend south from this surface low with a warm front extending east into the Southeast. ...Central/Southern Plains... Low to mid 70s dewpoints will advect poleward east of a sharpening dryline across the central Plains Sunday morning/early afternoon. This, combined with strong heating, will result in strong to very strong instability across Oklahoma and into southern Kansas with moderate to strong instability across eastern Kansas. As a mid-level shortwave trough emerges over the Plains, inhibition will erode along the dryline with storm development possible during the afternoon. Deep layer shear will support supercells as the primary storm mode with potential for large hail. As the low-level jet strengthens through the day, the low-level hodographs will elongate and result in an increasing tornado threat, including the potential for strong tornadoes. Confidence in storm coverage is highest across Kansas near the triple point. While some uncertainty remains where the warm front/dryline intersection will be, it will likely be somewhere near central Kansas. An enhanced risk (Level 3 out of 5) has been added across Kansas and into northern Oklahoma where the confidence for storm coverage is highest. However, it is important to note that storms could be equally as intense within the slight risk area across Oklahoma as storm coverage concerns are the only limiting factor to higher severe weather probabilities at this time. ...Southeast... Isolated storms will be possible along the frontal zone from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Southeast. Moderate to strong instability and strong shear will be in place along the frontal zone. However, forcing should be weak, so storm coverage is uncertain at this time. ..Bentley.. 05/16/2025 Read more

WW 0259 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0259 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA AND WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A low-latitude midlevel trough, accompanied by a 60-kt southwesterly speed maximum, will advance northeastward from northern MX across southern NM during the afternoon. In response, a weak lee cyclone/trough will deepen over the southern High Plains. ...Southern New Mexico... Along the northern periphery of mid/high-level clouds extending from north-central MX into West TX, mostly clear skies and dry/downslope trajectories will support deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced southwesterly flow aloft across southern NM. Additionally, a modest pressure gradient peripheral to the lee cyclone/trough will contribute to 20-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). These strong/gusty winds, combined with single-digit RH and middle 80s F temperatures, will yield critical fire-weather conditions atop increasingly receptive fuels. ..Weinman.. 05/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA AND WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A low-latitude midlevel trough, accompanied by a 60-kt southwesterly speed maximum, will advance northeastward from northern MX across southern NM during the afternoon. In response, a weak lee cyclone/trough will deepen over the southern High Plains. ...Southern New Mexico... Along the northern periphery of mid/high-level clouds extending from north-central MX into West TX, mostly clear skies and dry/downslope trajectories will support deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced southwesterly flow aloft across southern NM. Additionally, a modest pressure gradient peripheral to the lee cyclone/trough will contribute to 20-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). These strong/gusty winds, combined with single-digit RH and middle 80s F temperatures, will yield critical fire-weather conditions atop increasingly receptive fuels. ..Weinman.. 05/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... Within the base of a deep mid/upper-level low moving across the Upper MS Valley, a 70-kt southwesterly speed maximum will emerge over the Midwest during the afternoon. Beneath the core of the midlevel jet, strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread parts of northern IL -- where diurnal heating amid a dry antecedent air mass will promote deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft. As a result, temperatures will climb into the 80s F, while RH falls to around 25-30 percent. These warm/dry conditions, combined with 20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts), will favor elevated fire-weather conditions over areas that missed out on precipitation over the past 24 hours. ..Weinman.. 05/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... Within the base of a deep mid/upper-level low moving across the Upper MS Valley, a 70-kt southwesterly speed maximum will emerge over the Midwest during the afternoon. Beneath the core of the midlevel jet, strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread parts of northern IL -- where diurnal heating amid a dry antecedent air mass will promote deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft. As a result, temperatures will climb into the 80s F, while RH falls to around 25-30 percent. These warm/dry conditions, combined with 20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts), will favor elevated fire-weather conditions over areas that missed out on precipitation over the past 24 hours. ..Weinman.. 05/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0128 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Mid-Mississippi, Ohio and Tennessee Valley Region this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Central and western Kentucky East-central and southeast Missouri Southern Illinois Southern Indiana Northern Tennessee Northeast Arkansas Southwest Ohio * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Several tornadoes, a few intense Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is likely this afternoon into tonight across parts of the mid Mississippi, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. This will include intense supercells associated with tornadoes, large hail and wind damage. Several strong tornadoes are expected, and a long-track high-end tornado will be possible. From the evening into the overnight, a bowing line segment is expected to form with the potential for tornadoes and damaging winds, with some gusts possibly greater than 75 mph. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO ARKANSAS AND OVER PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday across parts of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, and across parts of the southeastern Great Plains to Lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A mid-level low centered across the western Great Lakes Saturday morning will shift east through the day and move over the Northeast by 12Z Sunday. Moderate to strong mid-level flow will expand south from the southern Great Lakes to the Southeast. Farther west, a weakening mid-level shortwave trough will advance from northern Mexico into the Southern Plains. A mid-level jet streak associated with this mid-level shortwave trough will overspread portions of central/northern Texas and into Oklahoma on Saturday. A strong mid-level jet streak will move into the Intermountain West on Saturday and amplify a trough across the western CONUS. ...Mid Atlantic to the Northeast... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across portions of the Upper Ohio Valley and eastern Great Lakes. This convection and cloudcover associated with it, casts considerable uncertainty on destabilization, particularly across the Northeast. However, mid-60s dewpoints are anticipated ahead of the cold front as it moves eastward through the day. This moisture, combined with cooling temperatures aloft. Could be sufficient for damaging wind gusts and perhaps isolated large hail. The most favorable zone for severe storms will likely exist across eastern North Carolina into southeast Virginia. This zone is far enough south to likely remain mostly cloud free which will promote surface heating and destabilization. In addition, the stronger mid-level flow is forecast to overspread this region which would support storm organization and the potential for supercells. Given the greater instability and shear with potential for supercell storm mode, large hail and damaging wind gusts appear most likely within this region. ...Southeast... The cold front will likely become stalled across the Southeast on Saturday. South of this front, moderate to strong instability is forecast with 50 knots of flow parallel to the boundary. Forcing will remain weak along this boundary with minimal surface convergence and mostly neutral heights aloft. Therefore, storms are possible along this boundary, and could be supercellular if they form, but coverage should be isolated if any storms form at all given the weak forcing. ...Central Texas into Oklahoma, Arkansas, and northern Louisiana... Moderate to strong instability is forecast across central/northern Texas Saturday afternoon as temperatures warm into the low 80s with dewpoints in the low 70s and 500mb temperatures around -10C. Weak large scale forcing will overspread the dryline during the afternoon as a right entrance region of the upper-level jet overspreads northern Texas. Any subtle large scale forcing will likely be sufficient for rapid storm development along the uncapped dryline/triple point in north-central Texas by mid-afternoon. Large hail (some 2+ inch) will be the initial threat from supercells along the dryline. However, CAM signals suggest a combination of left and right-moving supercells congealing into a cluster/MCS rather quickly with an increasing severe wind threat. These mode concerns limit higher hail/tornado probabilities at this time, despite a very unstable and strongly sheared environment across the region. Additional supercells may develop Saturday evening and into early Sunday morning across eastern Oklahoma into the Ozarks as isentropic ascent increases with the strengthening low-level jet. These storms will pose a primary threat of large hail. ...Utah into Southeast Idaho and Southwest Wyoming... Rapidly cooling temperatures aloft across the Great Basin on Saturday will result in weak destabilization and numerous storms. A deep, well-mixed boundary layer will support the potential for severe wind gusts from the stronger cores. ..Bentley.. 05/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF KENTUCKY...NORTHERN AND WESTERN TENNESSEE...SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...FAR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN INDIANA...FAR SOUTHWEST OHIO... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is likely this afternoon into tonight across parts of the mid Mississippi, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. This will include intense supercells associated with tornadoes, large hail and wind damage. Several strong tornadoes are expected, and a long-track high-end tornado will be possible. From the evening into the overnight, a bowing line segment is expected to form with potential for tornadoes and damaging winds, some possibly greater than 75 mph. ...Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valley/Tennessee Valley... A negatively-tilted mid-level trough will move through the Upper Midwest and mid Mississippi Valley today, as an associated 75 to 90 knot mid-level jet translates northeastward into the Ozarks. At the surface, a low will move into the western Great Lakes, as a cold front advances eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. A very moist airmass will remain in place ahead of the front, extending eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Across this airmass, surface dewpoints will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s F. Warming surface temperatures will result in moderate to strong destabilization across much of the moist sector by afternoon. An area of low-level convergence is expected to become increasingly focused from the Ozarks into the mid Mississippi Valley. This will result in the initiation of scattered strong to severe storms around midday. Several convective clusters are expected to organize and move eastward into the lower Ohio Valley during the afternoon. Storm coverage will expand markedly during the late afternoon and early evening as low-level flow increases across the region. Concerning the thermodynamic environment, a pristine airmass is expected to be in place by afternoon. Model forecasts are in good agreement that MLCAPE will peak from 3000 to 4000 J/kg from parts of the Ozarks eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. As instability increases, deep-layer shear and lift are also expected to increase as a mid-level jet approaches from the west. Ahead of this feature, an 850 mb jet is forecast to develop over the mid Mississippi Valley. This jet will gradually increase in strength into the 45 to 65 knot range, moving eastward into western Kentucky by late afternoon. Near the axis of the low-level jet at Paducah, RAP forecast soundings at 23Z have MLCAPE near 3500 J/kg, 0-6 km shear around 60 knots, and low to mid-level lapse rates near 7 C/km. 0-3 km helicity is forecast to be between 225 and 250 m2/s2. This environment will support supercells and tornadoes. Several strong tornadoes appear likely, and a high-end long-track tornado will be possible from far southeast Missouri, into southern Illinois and southern Indiana, southward into western Kentucky and far northern Tennessee. During the late afternoon, storm coverage is expected to become widespread across the moist sector. Several supercell clusters will move eastward from the mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Steep mid-level lapse rates will promote large hail development. The more intense cores may have hailstones between 2 and 4 inches in diameter. Supercells will also be capable of producing damaging wind gusts. During the early evening, the wind-damage threat is expected to increase as some of the convective clusters gradually transition into more linear structures. Winds could exceed 75 mph along the leading edge of these faster-moving bowing line segments. During the evening, multiple bow echos are expected to form that will result in extensive wind damage swaths. Wind damage is expected across a broad area, including parts of the mid Mississippi, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the central Appalachian mountains. ...Ark-La-Tex/Lower Mississippi Valley... A very moist airmass will be in place today across the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley. Surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F will result in moderate to strong destabilization across much of this airmass. A capping inversion is expected to be in place for much of the day, but should weaken late in the afternoon as a mid-level jet moves eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. The southern edge of the jet will help to increase large-scale ascent, aiding convective development. In response, a few clusters of storms will form and move eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley during the late afternoon and early evening. In areas that strongly destabilize, storms could be capable of producing large hail and wind damage. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with intense supercell cores. ..Broyles/Weinman.. 05/16/2025 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri May 16 05:36:05 UTC 2025.

WW 0258 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 258 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW JXN TO 20 SW FNT TO 15 NW FNT TO 30 NW MBS. ..SPC..05/16/25 ATTN...WFO...DTX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 258 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MIC017-049-063-087-091-093-099-111-115-125-145-147-151-157-161- 163-160540- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY GENESEE HURON LAPEER LENAWEE LIVINGSTON MACOMB MIDLAND MONROE OAKLAND SAGINAW ST. CLAIR SANILAC TUSCOLA WASHTENAW WAYNE LCZ422-423-460-LEZ444-LHZ421-422-441-442-443-462-463-464- 160540- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE ST. CLAIR RIVER DETROIT RIVER Read more

WW 0258 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 258 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW JXN TO 20 SW FNT TO 15 NW FNT TO 30 NW MBS. ..SPC..05/16/25 ATTN...WFO...DTX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 258 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MIC017-049-063-087-091-093-099-111-115-125-145-147-151-157-161- 163-160540- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY GENESEE HURON LAPEER LENAWEE LIVINGSTON MACOMB MIDLAND MONROE OAKLAND SAGINAW ST. CLAIR SANILAC TUSCOLA WASHTENAW WAYNE LCZ422-423-460-LEZ444-LHZ421-422-441-442-443-462-463-464- 160540- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE ST. CLAIR RIVER DETROIT RIVER Read more

WW 258 TORNADO MI LE LH 160330Z - 160900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 258 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern Lower Michigan Lake Erie Lake Huron * Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 1130 PM until 500 AM EDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A well-organized thunderstorm cluster should continue to pose a threat for scattered severe/damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes as it moves quickly eastward across Lower Michigan. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles northwest of Bad Axe MI to 35 miles south of Ann Arbor MI. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 256...WW 257... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25045. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0256 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 256 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE AZO TO 5 NNW JXN TO 20 SE HTL TO 35 W PLN. ..SPC..05/16/25 ATTN...WFO...GRR...APX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 256 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MIC009-011-025-029-031-039-047-051-065-069-075-129-137-143- 160540- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANTRIM ARENAC CALHOUN CHARLEVOIX CHEBOYGAN CRAWFORD EMMET GLADWIN INGHAM IOSCO JACKSON OGEMAW OTSEGO ROSCOMMON LHZ363-160540- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO US/CANADIAN BORDER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 0256 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 256 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE AZO TO 5 NNW JXN TO 20 SE HTL TO 35 W PLN. ..SPC..05/16/25 ATTN...WFO...GRR...APX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 256 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MIC009-011-025-029-031-039-047-051-065-069-075-129-137-143- 160540- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANTRIM ARENAC CALHOUN CHARLEVOIX CHEBOYGAN CRAWFORD EMMET GLADWIN INGHAM IOSCO JACKSON OGEMAW OTSEGO ROSCOMMON LHZ363-160540- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO US/CANADIAN BORDER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 256 TORNADO MI LM 160020Z - 160700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 256 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 820 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Lower Michigan Lake Michigan * Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 820 PM until 300 AM EDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Intense thunderstorms will spread east-northeastward this evening and overnight across much of Lower Michigan while posing a threat for scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds. Peak gusts may reach up to 70-80 mph. A few tornadoes may also occur within the line of convection. Large hail will be possible with any embedded supercells. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles north of Traverse City MI to 10 miles southwest of Kalamazoo MI. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 251...WW 253...WW 254...WW 255... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24040. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0257 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 257 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N FWA TO 30 S AZO TO 10 SE AZO. ..SPC..05/16/25 ATTN...WFO...IND...IWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 257 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC151-160540- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE STEUBEN MIC023-149-160540- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRANCH ST. JOSEPH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0257 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 257 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N FWA TO 30 S AZO TO 10 SE AZO. ..SPC..05/16/25 ATTN...WFO...IND...IWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 257 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC151-160540- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE STEUBEN MIC023-149-160540- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRANCH ST. JOSEPH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 0800 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 256... FOR PARTS OF WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 0800 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0900 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Areas affected...Parts of western Lower Michigan Concerning...Tornado Watch 256... Valid 160200Z - 160330Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 256 continues. SUMMARY...Severe MCS with embedded supercell structures moving ashore over western Lower Michigan. Damaging wind gusts and embedded tornadoes are the primary concerns. DISCUSSION...The latest radar data from GRR depicts a well-organized north/south-oriented MCS with embedded supercell structures moving ashore over western Lower MI. The GRR VWP is sampling 40 kt of 0-6km shear oriented perpendicular to the leading gust front, and 40-50 kt at 1 km AGL -- supporting ample low-level streamwise vorticity ingestion based on an eastward system motion. These factors, coupled with middle/upper 60s dewpoints and moderate surface-based buoyancy, will favor severe wind gusts (some upwards of 70-80 mph possible) and tornadoes -- especially near any embedded supercells/mesovorticies and rear-inflow jets. ..Weinman.. 05/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...APX...IWX...GRR... LAT...LON 42818638 43458636 44178648 44398604 44368557 44018513 43438499 42918504 42348520 41908556 41748601 41768654 42088668 42818638 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0255 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 255 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S DEC TO 35 SE RAC. ..WEINMAN..05/16/25 ATTN...WFO...DVN...ILX...LOT... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 255 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC019-023-029-035-041-045-053-075-091-139-147-173-183-160240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHAMPAIGN CLARK COLES CUMBERLAND DOUGLAS EDGAR FORD IROQUOIS KANKAKEE MOULTRIE PIATT SHELBY VERMILION INC007-073-089-111-127-160240- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON JASPER LAKE NEWTON PORTER LMZ743-744-745-777-779-160240- CW Read more