SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z An upper-level low will linger across the western US through D5/Thursday, bringing breezy conditions but also increasing potential for precipitation. On D3/Tuesday across central South Dakota and Nebraska, breezy and dry conditions will be possible as the Great Lakes trough deepens with enhanced northwesterly flow aloft moving out of Canada. Though downslope warming and drying are forecast, latest guidance in this region suggests fuels are marginal. Later in the period next weekend, the upper-level low across the western US will eject into the Plains, bringing potential for windy/dry conditions across portions of the High Plains and Southern Plains. This may favor periods of elevated fire-weather conditions, particularly across southwestern and western Texas where freeze cured grasses may support risk for fire spread. Elsewhere, marginal fuels and chances for additional precipitation should limit the potential for critical conditions. ..Thornton.. 01/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...20z Update... The prior forecast remains valid with no changes. Scattered elevated thunderstorms ongoing over the ArkLaTex should continue northeastward within the pronounced low-level warm advection regime through tonight. Additional storm development and lightning potential, albeit lower probability, will remain possible this evening over eastern TX with weak low and mid-level ascent continuing for another few hours. Likewise, isolated lightning flashes will remain possible over parts of the central Valley and coastal CA beneath a deep upper low. Severe storms are not expected. See the prior forecast for more info. ..Lyons.. 01/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... The latest satellite and observational data show a stacked cyclone over central CA, which is poised to continue drifting southward through the remainder of the period per latest guidance consensus. Scant buoyancy, driven by cooler temperatures aloft within the stacked cyclone core, will foster the potential for a couple of lightning flashes across central into southern CA today into tonight. Meanwhile, low-level warm-air and moisture advection are in progress across portions of eastern TX into the Lower MS Valley, with scattered thunderstorm development already underway. Latest thinking is that persistent warm-air advection will support an increase in thunderstorm coverage through the day across eastern TX, with a greater coverage of thunderstorms into the Lower MS Valley tonight. Across eastern TX this afternoon, elevated buoyancy, driven by an 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rate plume, may contribute to small hail potential with some of the stronger, more persistent updrafts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...20z Update... The prior forecast remains valid with no changes. Scattered elevated thunderstorms ongoing over the ArkLaTex should continue northeastward within the pronounced low-level warm advection regime through tonight. Additional storm development and lightning potential, albeit lower probability, will remain possible this evening over eastern TX with weak low and mid-level ascent continuing for another few hours. Likewise, isolated lightning flashes will remain possible over parts of the central Valley and coastal CA beneath a deep upper low. Severe storms are not expected. See the prior forecast for more info. ..Lyons.. 01/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... The latest satellite and observational data show a stacked cyclone over central CA, which is poised to continue drifting southward through the remainder of the period per latest guidance consensus. Scant buoyancy, driven by cooler temperatures aloft within the stacked cyclone core, will foster the potential for a couple of lightning flashes across central into southern CA today into tonight. Meanwhile, low-level warm-air and moisture advection are in progress across portions of eastern TX into the Lower MS Valley, with scattered thunderstorm development already underway. Latest thinking is that persistent warm-air advection will support an increase in thunderstorm coverage through the day across eastern TX, with a greater coverage of thunderstorms into the Lower MS Valley tonight. Across eastern TX this afternoon, elevated buoyancy, driven by an 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rate plume, may contribute to small hail potential with some of the stronger, more persistent updrafts. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The potential for thunderstorms across the CONUS remains low Tuesday. ...Synopsis... The primary upper-level features of interest for Tuesday will be the shortwave ridge over the southern Plains and a slowly eastward progressing upper low in the Southwest. Models continue to show positional variability with regard to the upper low with the ECMWF/GFS being slightly slower than the NAM. Subsidence/capping should keep any potential for thunderstorms very low across the southern Plains through much of Tuesday night. As the upper low moves east, surface low development in northern Mexico/West Texas will begin to draw Gulf of Mexico moisture north and westward. Moistening at 850 mb will be greater than near the surface, however. Towards Wednesday morning, some elevated CAPE will be present from Central into East Texas. Given remnant influences from the upper-level ridging and nebulous forcing, capping will likely prohibit thunderstorm development. ..Wendt.. 01/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The potential for thunderstorms across the CONUS remains low Tuesday. ...Synopsis... The primary upper-level features of interest for Tuesday will be the shortwave ridge over the southern Plains and a slowly eastward progressing upper low in the Southwest. Models continue to show positional variability with regard to the upper low with the ECMWF/GFS being slightly slower than the NAM. Subsidence/capping should keep any potential for thunderstorms very low across the southern Plains through much of Tuesday night. As the upper low moves east, surface low development in northern Mexico/West Texas will begin to draw Gulf of Mexico moisture north and westward. Moistening at 850 mb will be greater than near the surface, however. Towards Wednesday morning, some elevated CAPE will be present from Central into East Texas. Given remnant influences from the upper-level ridging and nebulous forcing, capping will likely prohibit thunderstorm development. ..Wendt.. 01/26/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 PM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 01/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0120 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Portions of eastern Arizona and far west/southwestern New Mexico will continue to see elevated fire weather concerns through Monday afternoon. The upper low currently deepening off the central CA coast is forecast to reach peak intensity over the next 24 hours over southern CA before gradually shifting east into the lower CO River Valley by late Monday. This eastward shift will be influenced by the ejection of a mid-level jet max on the southeastern fringe of the upper low into northwest Mexico, which will promote surface pressure falls across AZ/NM under the left-exit region. In response, southerly low-level winds are forecast to increase to around 15 mph, which when coupled with an antecedent dry air mass (forecast RH minimums between 10-20%), should promote elevated fire weather conditions. Surface winds are expected to be strongest in proximity to the surface trough, which most solutions agree will likely reside along, if not just east of, the AZ/NM border. Localized critical conditions appear possible within the higher terrain of the Gila region in southwest NM, but the potential for widespread/sustained critical conditions appears limited. Fuels across this area continue to cure after several days of anomalously low dewpoints with ERCs approaching the 90th percentile in some areas, and should support the fire weather concern. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 PM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 01/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0120 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Portions of eastern Arizona and far west/southwestern New Mexico will continue to see elevated fire weather concerns through Monday afternoon. The upper low currently deepening off the central CA coast is forecast to reach peak intensity over the next 24 hours over southern CA before gradually shifting east into the lower CO River Valley by late Monday. This eastward shift will be influenced by the ejection of a mid-level jet max on the southeastern fringe of the upper low into northwest Mexico, which will promote surface pressure falls across AZ/NM under the left-exit region. In response, southerly low-level winds are forecast to increase to around 15 mph, which when coupled with an antecedent dry air mass (forecast RH minimums between 10-20%), should promote elevated fire weather conditions. Surface winds are expected to be strongest in proximity to the surface trough, which most solutions agree will likely reside along, if not just east of, the AZ/NM border. Localized critical conditions appear possible within the higher terrain of the Gila region in southwest NM, but the potential for widespread/sustained critical conditions appears limited. Fuels across this area continue to cure after several days of anomalously low dewpoints with ERCs approaching the 90th percentile in some areas, and should support the fire weather concern. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Monday morning in the lower Mississippi Valley, southern California, and portions of the lower Colorado Valley. Severe weather potential remains quite low. ...Synopsis... A large upper-level trough will remain across much of the East into parts of the Midwest tomorrow. A cold front will move into the Gulf of Mexico. Farther west, a broad upper low will move through southern California and into the Southwest. ...Lower Mississippi Valley... Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing early Monday morning within a weak elevated buoyancy environment. This activity will continue into mid/late morning before low-level convergence/warm advection weakens. ...Southern California into Lower Colorado Valley... Cold temperatures aloft and modest mid-level ascent will promote showers and isolated embedded thunderstorms from the southern California coast into parts of the lower Colorado Valley. Most of this activity will occur during the early to late morning. Thereafter, forcing for ascent should weaken and slight mid-level warming should reduce what will already be minimal buoyancy to negligible levels. ..Wendt.. 01/26/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1047 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1239 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue across parts of eastern/southeastern Arizona and into far western/southwestern New Mexico for today. 06 UTC surface observations continue to sample a very dry air mass across the southwestern states with dewpoints between -15 to 5 F and nocturnal RH values in the single digits to low teens across much of southern to central AZ. Negligible moisture return into the region will promote another day of widespread 10-15% RH minimums. Aloft, an increasingly pronounced upper low along the central CA coast will gradually shift southward over the next 24 hours, maintaining a broad swath of strong southwesterly winds over AZ. Surface pressure falls will be concentrated across southern CA today resulting in weaker pressure gradient winds - generally around 15 mph - compared to yesterday/Saturday; however, the deep dry layer near the surface will facilitate downward mixing of stronger mid-level winds, resulting in gusts upwards of 25-35 mph by early afternoon. Recent guidance continues to suggest the windiest conditions will reside on the northern slopes of the Mogollon Rim as well as across much of southeast AZ into far southwest NM. Consequently, confidence in sustained elevated fire weather conditions remains highest across these regions where fuels remain receptive amid persistent dry/breezy conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1004 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... The latest satellite and observational data show a stacked cyclone over central CA, which is poised to continue drifting southward through the remainder of the period per latest guidance consensus. Scant buoyancy, driven by cooler temperatures aloft within the stacked cyclone core, will foster the potential for a couple of lightning flashes across central into southern CA today into tonight. Meanwhile, low-level warm-air and moisture advection are in progress across portions of eastern TX into the Lower MS Valley, with scattered thunderstorm development already underway. Latest thinking is that persistent warm-air advection will support an increase in thunderstorm coverage through the day across eastern TX, with a greater coverage of thunderstorms into the Lower MS Valley tonight. Across eastern TX this afternoon, elevated buoyancy, driven by an 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rate plume, may contribute to small hail potential with some of the stronger, more persistent updrafts. ..Squitieri.. 01/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1004 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... The latest satellite and observational data show a stacked cyclone over central CA, which is poised to continue drifting southward through the remainder of the period per latest guidance consensus. Scant buoyancy, driven by cooler temperatures aloft within the stacked cyclone core, will foster the potential for a couple of lightning flashes across central into southern CA today into tonight. Meanwhile, low-level warm-air and moisture advection are in progress across portions of eastern TX into the Lower MS Valley, with scattered thunderstorm development already underway. Latest thinking is that persistent warm-air advection will support an increase in thunderstorm coverage through the day across eastern TX, with a greater coverage of thunderstorms into the Lower MS Valley tonight. Across eastern TX this afternoon, elevated buoyancy, driven by an 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rate plume, may contribute to small hail potential with some of the stronger, more persistent updrafts. ..Squitieri.. 01/26/2025 Read more