WW 0262 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 262 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E MLC TO 10 NE FSM TO 30 SW HRO TO 40 NNW FLP TO 15 E TBN TO 25 E VIH TO 20 NW STL TO 40 ESE UIN. ..JEWELL..05/16/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...LSX...PAH...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 262 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC005-009-023-029-047-049-063-065-067-071-075-083-087-089-101- 115-121-127-129-131-135-137-141-149-162140- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAXTER BOONE CLEBURNE CONWAY FRANKLIN FULTON INDEPENDENCE IZARD JACKSON JOHNSON LAWRENCE LOGAN MADISON MARION NEWTON POPE RANDOLPH SCOTT SEARCY SEBASTIAN SHARP STONE VAN BUREN YELL ILC005-013-027-051-061-077-083-117-119-121-133-135-145-157-163- 189-162140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOND CALHOUN CLINTON FAYETTE GREENE JACKSON Read more

WW 262 TORNADO AR IL MO OK 161655Z - 170000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 262 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northern Arkansas Southwestern Illinois Central and Eastern Missouri Far Eastern Oklahoma * Effective this Friday morning and evening from 1155 AM until 700 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 4 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...The airmass across the region continues to destabilize amid strong low-level moisture advection and daytime heating. Robust thunderstorm development is anticipated over the next few hours as an approaching cold front interacts with this strong buoyant airmass. Strong vertical shear is also in place, supporting supercells as the primary storm mode. All severe hazards are possible with these supercells, including very large hail up to 4" in diameter and strong tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 70 miles south of Harrison AR to 35 miles north northwest of Saint Louis MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 260...WW 261... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 4 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24040. ...Mosier Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z Critical fire weather conditions are expected to linger over the weekend and into early next week across parts of the southern High Plains. Long-range guidance continues to depict the amplification of an upper trough over the Southwest this weekend before ejecting into the Plains early next week. As this occurs, dry southwesterly flow should overspread much of the Southwest/southern High Plains, which will promote multiple days of fire weather concerns. After the ejection of this wave, ensemble guidance suggests low-amplitude long-wave ridging will become established over the central CONUS. This should promote muted surface pressure gradient winds along with isolated rain chances for most regions with the exception of the Great Basin and Southwest. ...D3/Sunday and D4/Monday - Southern High Plains... Southwesterly flow over the southern/central Rockies will promote lee troughing along the southern High Plains through early next week. To the west of a sharpening dryline, west/southwesterly downslope flow will promote multiple days of dry/windy conditions with afternoon RH values expected to fall into the single digits to low teens with 15-25 mph winds. Widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected both afternoons as mid-level impulses propagate into the Plains and result in an eastward surge of the dryline. The fire weather threat should be greatest across south-central NM into far West TX where ERCs are currently between the 80th to 95th percentile. With northward and eastward extent, ongoing spring green up should modulate the potential for fire spread. ...D3/Sunday and D4/Monday - Sacramento Valley... Dry northerly winds are expected through the Sacramento Valley both D3/Sun and D4/Mon. Latest deterministic and ensemble guidance suggests winds between 15-20 mph are likely with RH values falling into the 20-30% range. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible, and some fire threat may materialize given ERCs increasing to near the 80th percentile. However, confidence in sustained/widespread critical conditions remains too limited for highlights at this time. ..Moore.. 05/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z Critical fire weather conditions are expected to linger over the weekend and into early next week across parts of the southern High Plains. Long-range guidance continues to depict the amplification of an upper trough over the Southwest this weekend before ejecting into the Plains early next week. As this occurs, dry southwesterly flow should overspread much of the Southwest/southern High Plains, which will promote multiple days of fire weather concerns. After the ejection of this wave, ensemble guidance suggests low-amplitude long-wave ridging will become established over the central CONUS. This should promote muted surface pressure gradient winds along with isolated rain chances for most regions with the exception of the Great Basin and Southwest. ...D3/Sunday and D4/Monday - Southern High Plains... Southwesterly flow over the southern/central Rockies will promote lee troughing along the southern High Plains through early next week. To the west of a sharpening dryline, west/southwesterly downslope flow will promote multiple days of dry/windy conditions with afternoon RH values expected to fall into the single digits to low teens with 15-25 mph winds. Widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected both afternoons as mid-level impulses propagate into the Plains and result in an eastward surge of the dryline. The fire weather threat should be greatest across south-central NM into far West TX where ERCs are currently between the 80th to 95th percentile. With northward and eastward extent, ongoing spring green up should modulate the potential for fire spread. ...D3/Sunday and D4/Monday - Sacramento Valley... Dry northerly winds are expected through the Sacramento Valley both D3/Sun and D4/Mon. Latest deterministic and ensemble guidance suggests winds between 15-20 mph are likely with RH values falling into the 20-30% range. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible, and some fire threat may materialize given ERCs increasing to near the 80th percentile. However, confidence in sustained/widespread critical conditions remains too limited for highlights at this time. ..Moore.. 05/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0265 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0265 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 265 TORNADO IL IN KY MO 162000Z - 170300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 265 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 300 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and Southern Illinois Central and Southern Indiana Western and Central Kentucky Far Southeast Missouri * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 300 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely SUMMARY...Supercells ongoing across eastern MO and western IL are expected to continue eastward into the destabilizing airmass downstream across the region. All severe hazards, including very large hail up to 2.5" to 3" in diameter and strong to intense tornadoes, are possible. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 95 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles north northwest of Indianapolis IN to 40 miles south of Paducah KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 261...WW 262...WW 263...WW 264... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24040. ...Mosier Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is likely this afternoon into tonight across parts of the mid Mississippi, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. This will include intense supercells with strong, potentially long-track tornadoes and very large hail. The threat for damaging winds in excess of 75 mph will increase into this evening as storms grow into larger clusters. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. Supercells are ongoing across Missouri producing large hail (up to 3-4 in). These storms will continue eastward through time across the Moderate Risk. The area ahead of these storms is continuing to warm and destabilize rapidly, with some increase in low level shear expected through the evening with an increase in the low level jet. This will support increasing potential for tornadoes, a couple of which may be intense and long-track across eastern Missouri into southern Illinois, southern Indiana, and western Kentucky. See MCD#817 for more information on the short term risk. Elsewhere, a cluster of storms continue across portions of the eastern US from West Virginia to eastern Kentucky which will slowly move into Virginia and North Carolina. See MCD#816 for more information on the short term risk. For more information on the potential risk across southeast Oklahoma into Texas this afternoon/evening, see previous discussion below. ..Thornton/Mosier.. 05/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025/ ...Mid MS Valley to the Mid-Atlantic through tonight... An occluded 984 mb cyclone will move slowly eastward toward the upper Great Lakes and fill through tonight, as a trailing cold front progresses across MO/IL/IN/MI. Ongoing thunderstorm clusters will likely persist through the afternoon along the primary moisture/buoyancy gradient into the northern Mid-Atlantic, and with a developing cold pool from TN/KY into VA/NC within the warm sector. MLCAPE increasing to 2000 J/kg or greater, steepening low-level lapse rates, and sufficient deep-layer vertical shear (effective bulk shear of 40-50 kt) will maintain a mix of embedded supercells and bowing segments capable of producing very large hail (2 inch diameter or larger), thunderstorm gusts of 60-75 mph, and a couple of tornadoes. Farther west and in the wake of the ongoing TN/KY storms, rapid recovery is underway across southern MO where moisture advection and strong surface heating will result in rapid destabilization. Visible imagery shows evidence of ascent over northwest AR/southwest MO that will soon interact with the destabilizing warm sector. Supercell development is expected by midday into early afternoon from south central into east central MO, and storms will subsequently expand in coverage while spreading quickly east-northeastward across southern/central IL this afternoon and into IN late this afternoon/evening. The initial storms in MO will likely remain semi-discrete with the potential to producing very large hail (in excess of 3 inches in diameter) and a couple of strong tornadoes given very long hodograph with sufficient low-level shear. Gradual upscale growth into clusters/line segments is expected through storm interactions, with an increase in the potential for swaths of 65-85 mph gusts into this evening. More isolated supercell development may also occur later this afternoon along the modifying outflow boundary into KY, where all hazards are expected. ...Northern IL into Lower MI this afternoon/evening... An embedded speed max and associated zone of ascent now over northern MO will eject quickly east-northeastward toward Lower MI by early tonight. The degree of moistening/destabilization will be modulated by how quickly storms form and how widespread coverage is this afternoon farther to the south from IL into IN. ...AR into southeast OK and northeast/central TX this afternoon... Despite some cloud cover, surface heating in cloud breaks is allowing surface temperatures to warm into the 80s with low-mid 70s boundary-layer dewpoints, beneath midlevel lapse rates in excess of 8 C/km. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon along the primary wind shift from AR/southeast OK into northeast and potentially central TX. MLCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg and long hodographs with strong deep-layer shear will favor supercells capable of producing very large hail (3-4 inches in diameter) with the initial discrete storms, and damaging gusts of 60-75 mph. The tornado threat is less certain given relatively weak low-level shear (as a result of the primary mass response/low-level jet into the TN/OH Valleys), and will likely rely on favorable storm interactions. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is likely this afternoon into tonight across parts of the mid Mississippi, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. This will include intense supercells with strong, potentially long-track tornadoes and very large hail. The threat for damaging winds in excess of 75 mph will increase into this evening as storms grow into larger clusters. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. Supercells are ongoing across Missouri producing large hail (up to 3-4 in). These storms will continue eastward through time across the Moderate Risk. The area ahead of these storms is continuing to warm and destabilize rapidly, with some increase in low level shear expected through the evening with an increase in the low level jet. This will support increasing potential for tornadoes, a couple of which may be intense and long-track across eastern Missouri into southern Illinois, southern Indiana, and western Kentucky. See MCD#817 for more information on the short term risk. Elsewhere, a cluster of storms continue across portions of the eastern US from West Virginia to eastern Kentucky which will slowly move into Virginia and North Carolina. See MCD#816 for more information on the short term risk. For more information on the potential risk across southeast Oklahoma into Texas this afternoon/evening, see previous discussion below. ..Thornton/Mosier.. 05/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025/ ...Mid MS Valley to the Mid-Atlantic through tonight... An occluded 984 mb cyclone will move slowly eastward toward the upper Great Lakes and fill through tonight, as a trailing cold front progresses across MO/IL/IN/MI. Ongoing thunderstorm clusters will likely persist through the afternoon along the primary moisture/buoyancy gradient into the northern Mid-Atlantic, and with a developing cold pool from TN/KY into VA/NC within the warm sector. MLCAPE increasing to 2000 J/kg or greater, steepening low-level lapse rates, and sufficient deep-layer vertical shear (effective bulk shear of 40-50 kt) will maintain a mix of embedded supercells and bowing segments capable of producing very large hail (2 inch diameter or larger), thunderstorm gusts of 60-75 mph, and a couple of tornadoes. Farther west and in the wake of the ongoing TN/KY storms, rapid recovery is underway across southern MO where moisture advection and strong surface heating will result in rapid destabilization. Visible imagery shows evidence of ascent over northwest AR/southwest MO that will soon interact with the destabilizing warm sector. Supercell development is expected by midday into early afternoon from south central into east central MO, and storms will subsequently expand in coverage while spreading quickly east-northeastward across southern/central IL this afternoon and into IN late this afternoon/evening. The initial storms in MO will likely remain semi-discrete with the potential to producing very large hail (in excess of 3 inches in diameter) and a couple of strong tornadoes given very long hodograph with sufficient low-level shear. Gradual upscale growth into clusters/line segments is expected through storm interactions, with an increase in the potential for swaths of 65-85 mph gusts into this evening. More isolated supercell development may also occur later this afternoon along the modifying outflow boundary into KY, where all hazards are expected. ...Northern IL into Lower MI this afternoon/evening... An embedded speed max and associated zone of ascent now over northern MO will eject quickly east-northeastward toward Lower MI by early tonight. The degree of moistening/destabilization will be modulated by how quickly storms form and how widespread coverage is this afternoon farther to the south from IL into IN. ...AR into southeast OK and northeast/central TX this afternoon... Despite some cloud cover, surface heating in cloud breaks is allowing surface temperatures to warm into the 80s with low-mid 70s boundary-layer dewpoints, beneath midlevel lapse rates in excess of 8 C/km. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon along the primary wind shift from AR/southeast OK into northeast and potentially central TX. MLCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg and long hodographs with strong deep-layer shear will favor supercells capable of producing very large hail (3-4 inches in diameter) with the initial discrete storms, and damaging gusts of 60-75 mph. The tornado threat is less certain given relatively weak low-level shear (as a result of the primary mass response/low-level jet into the TN/OH Valleys), and will likely rely on favorable storm interactions. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF KANSAS AND NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected on Sunday across portions of the central and southern Plains. ...Central/Southern Plains... An upper shortwave impulse will eject east/northeast from the southern Rockies into the southern/central Plains on Sunday. Only modest height falls are forecast to occur for much of the period. Nevertheless, enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread the region. A lee low is forecast to develop over eastern CO and spread east into western KS. A surface dryline will extend southward from southwest KS into western OK and central TX. A warm front extending west to east along the OK/TX border into southern MO/KY will lift northward across the Mid-MO/Lower OH Valleys through early Sunday. A very moist airmass with mid/upper 60s F dewpoints is expected as far north as northern KS into southern MO. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop rich boundary layer moisture will result in moderate to strong destabilization. Confidence in storm coverage is lower than normal as it is unclear if capping will be overcome, especially with southward extent into portions of OK/TX. Convection may be more likely to develop near the surface triple point in central KS, and eventually further north and east along the warm frontal zone within the warm advection regime. Where storms can overcome capping, supercells within a favorably sheared, strongly unstable environment are expected. An accompany risk for significant all-hazards severe will accompany this activity. During the evening and overnight hours, elevated convection is possible in the warm advection regime as the warm front lifts north across the central Plains. Elevated storms may pose a risk for hail, or if clustering occurs, some damaging wind potential may develop with a zone from the Mid-MO Valley vicinity into central MO. ...Deep South to GA/SC Coast... Enhanced west/northwest flow aloft will overspread the region on Sunday. A stalled boundary may modulate northward through the afternoon, and a very moist and unstable airmass will be in place amid moderate vertical shear. Large-scale ascent will be weak, but any storms that develop could become strong/severe. ..Leitman.. 05/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF KANSAS AND NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected on Sunday across portions of the central and southern Plains. ...Central/Southern Plains... An upper shortwave impulse will eject east/northeast from the southern Rockies into the southern/central Plains on Sunday. Only modest height falls are forecast to occur for much of the period. Nevertheless, enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread the region. A lee low is forecast to develop over eastern CO and spread east into western KS. A surface dryline will extend southward from southwest KS into western OK and central TX. A warm front extending west to east along the OK/TX border into southern MO/KY will lift northward across the Mid-MO/Lower OH Valleys through early Sunday. A very moist airmass with mid/upper 60s F dewpoints is expected as far north as northern KS into southern MO. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop rich boundary layer moisture will result in moderate to strong destabilization. Confidence in storm coverage is lower than normal as it is unclear if capping will be overcome, especially with southward extent into portions of OK/TX. Convection may be more likely to develop near the surface triple point in central KS, and eventually further north and east along the warm frontal zone within the warm advection regime. Where storms can overcome capping, supercells within a favorably sheared, strongly unstable environment are expected. An accompany risk for significant all-hazards severe will accompany this activity. During the evening and overnight hours, elevated convection is possible in the warm advection regime as the warm front lifts north across the central Plains. Elevated storms may pose a risk for hail, or if clustering occurs, some damaging wind potential may develop with a zone from the Mid-MO Valley vicinity into central MO. ...Deep South to GA/SC Coast... Enhanced west/northwest flow aloft will overspread the region on Sunday. A stalled boundary may modulate northward through the afternoon, and a very moist and unstable airmass will be in place amid moderate vertical shear. Large-scale ascent will be weak, but any storms that develop could become strong/severe. ..Leitman.. 05/16/2025 Read more

WW 0260 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 260 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW ILG TO 15 WSW ACY TO 20 E ACY. ..GRAMS..05/16/25 ATTN...WFO...PHI... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 260 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-005-161940- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT SUSSEX MDC011-029-035-041-161940- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAROLINE KENT QUEEN ANNE'S TALBOT NJC001-009-011-161940- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATLANTIC CAPE MAY CUMBERLAND Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... The primary adjustment for this forecast update was an expansion of the Elevated risk area into parts of western TX and eastern AZ. Recent guidance shows relatively good agreement in widespread 15-25 mph winds across much of the Southwest and southern High Plains. Given antecedent dry conditions (17 UTC relative humidity values in the single digits to low teens with no appreciable moisture recovery anticipated), widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions are anticipated. Expansion of the Critical risk area was considered for parts of west/southwest TX, but ERC values remain near to just below seasonal values. One and ten-hour fuel moisture values below 10% suggest that the fire threat will primarily be driven by dead dry grasses, but ongoing green up should also limit fire spread potential to some degree, especially with east and northward extent. Consequently, only elevated highlights appear warranted. Similarly, elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected along the Mogollon Rim in eastern AZ where ERCs are generally near seasonal levels, but some fire activity within the past week suggests that at least elevated highlights are needed. ..Moore.. 05/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... A low-latitude midlevel trough, accompanied by a 60-kt southwesterly speed maximum, will advance northeastward from northern MX across southern NM during the afternoon. In response, a weak lee cyclone/trough will deepen over the southern High Plains. ...Southern New Mexico... Along the northern periphery of mid/high-level clouds extending from north-central MX into West TX, mostly clear skies and dry/downslope trajectories will support deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced southwesterly flow aloft across southern NM. Additionally, a modest pressure gradient peripheral to the lee cyclone/trough will contribute to 20-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). These strong/gusty winds, combined with single-digit RH and middle 80s F temperatures, will yield critical fire-weather conditions atop increasingly receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are possible across the southern Plains on Saturday. Additional severe storms are possible across the Northeast. ...Synopsis... An upper trough extending from the Great Lakes toward the TN Valley/southern Appalachians will develop east through the period, moving mostly offshore the Atlantic coast Saturday night/early Sunday morning. Further west, an upper trough will dig across the western U.S., while an upper ridge builds over the Plains. A shortwave impulse over the southern Rockies is expected to move through the upper ridge over the southern Plains. Enhanced west/southwesterly flow associated with the southern Plains impulse and the larger-scale trough over the East will persist through much of the period. At the surface, a cold front will move across much of the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic/Northeast. The southwest extent of this boundary will lift northward across OK and parts of the Ozark Plateau. Meanwhile, a dryline will extend southward across portions of western OK/TX. ... Southern Plains to the Lower MS Valley Vicinity... Rich boundary layer moisture will be in place across the warm sector east of the dryline and south of the northward retreating warm front from OK/TX into AR/LA. More modest dewpoints in the low 60s F should spread into southern KS/MO during the evening/overnight hours as well. While capping will initially be in place, continued warm advection and increasing ascent from the midlevel shortwave impulse ejecting from the southern Rockies should overcome the EML across north TX into southern OK. Supercell wind profiles with elongated/straight hodographs and very steep midlevel lapse rates suggest splitting supercells producing large to very large hail will be possible. With time, clustering may result in an eastward progressing MCS moving across the ArkLaTex vicinity during the evening. Overnight, additional convection may develop within the warm frontal zone from northwest OK/southern KS into southwest MO/northwest AR. This activity may remain elevated to the north of the warm front. Nevertheless, vertical shear and thermodynamic conditions will be favorable for large hail. Some upscale growth may occur with clusters developing eastward within the baroclinic zone. If this occurs, some increase in strong wind potential could also occur. More isolated/conditional risk will extend southwestward along the surface dryline across west-central/southwest TX toward the Middle Rio Grande Valley/Del Rio vicinity. Any storms that develop in this area, or cross the border will pose a risk for large hail and strong gusts. ...Northeast... Modest boundary layer moisture is expected across the region. Cooling aloft will aid in 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE ahead of the surface cold front. Elongated/straight hodographs and greater than 30 kt effective shear suggest scattered convection may produce hail up to 1.5 inch diameter in the strongest cells. Steepened low-level lapse rates also may support sporadic strong gusts, especially if any clustering/linear segments develop. ...Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic... Outflow from overnight storms is expected to move across the eastern Carolinas and the Chesapeake Bay vicinity during the morning. Some airmass recovery is possible ahead of the eastward advancing cold front expected to move through later in the afternoon/evening. However, subsidence and drying aloft may inhibit redevelopment. Stronger midlevel flow is also expected to weaken through the day. Overall, severe potential appear low across the Chesapeake with a more uncertain/conditional risk across the eastern Carolinas. If storms can develop over eastern NC/SC, some risk for gusty winds and hail is possible. ...Deep South... Large scale ascent will remain nebulous across the region. However, the composite cold front and outflow from earlier convection will sag southward through peak heating. A very moist airmass will be in place, but midlevel lapse rates will be modest, resulting in MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg. Effective shear magnitudes greater than 35 kt will support organized convection capable of hail and strong gusts should any storms develop and become sustained. ...Northern UT into southwest WY... As the western upper trough digs south/southeast across the Great Basin, rapid cooling aloft will result in weak destabilization and numerous storms. A deep, well-mixed boundary layer will support the potential for severe wind gusts from the stronger cores. ..Leitman.. 05/16/2025 Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1141 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Select a General Area this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Kentucky Southern Indiana Southern Illinois Northwest and northern middle Tennessee Southeastern Missouri Extreme northeastern Arkansas Extreme southwestern Ohio * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Several tornadoes, a few intense Widespread large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is likely this afternoon into tonight across parts of the mid Mississippi, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. This will include intense supercells with strong, potentially long-track tornadoes and very large hail. The threat for damaging winds in excess of 75 mph will increase into this evening as storms grow into larger clusters. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is likely this afternoon into tonight across parts of the mid Mississippi, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. This will include intense supercells with strong, potentially long-track tornadoes and very large hail. The threat for damaging winds in excess of 75 mph will increase into this evening as storms grow into larger clusters. ...Mid MS Valley to the Mid-Atlantic through tonight... An occluded 984 mb cyclone will move slowly eastward toward the upper Great Lakes and fill through tonight, as a trailing cold front progresses across MO/IL/IN/MI. Ongoing thunderstorm clusters will likely persist through the afternoon along the primary moisture/buoyancy gradient into the northern Mid-Atlantic, and with a developing cold pool from TN/KY into VA/NC within the warm sector. MLCAPE increasing to 2000 J/kg or greater, steepening low-level lapse rates, and sufficient deep-layer vertical shear (effective bulk shear of 40-50 kt) will maintain a mix of embedded supercells and bowing segments capable of producing very large hail (2 inch diameter or larger), thunderstorm gusts of 60-75 mph, and a couple of tornadoes. Farther west and in the wake of the ongoing TN/KY storms, rapid recovery is underway across southern MO where moisture advection and strong surface heating will result in rapid destabilization. Visible imagery shows evidence of ascent over northwest AR/southwest MO that will soon interact with the destabilizing warm sector. Supercell development is expected by midday into early afternoon from south central into east central MO, and storms will subsequently expand in coverage while spreading quickly east-northeastward across southern/central IL this afternoon and into IN late this afternoon/evening. The initial storms in MO will likely remain semi-discrete with the potential to producing very large hail (in excess of 3 inches in diameter) and a couple of strong tornadoes given very long hodograph with sufficient low-level shear. Gradual upscale growth into clusters/line segments is expected through storm interactions, with an increase in the potential for swaths of 65-85 mph gusts into this evening. More isolated supercell development may also occur later this afternoon along the modifying outflow boundary into KY, where all hazards are expected. ...Northern IL into Lower MI this afternoon/evening... An embedded speed max and associated zone of ascent now over northern MO will eject quickly east-northeastward toward Lower MI by early tonight. The degree of moistening/destabilization will be modulated by how quickly storms form and how widespread coverage is this afternoon farther to the south from IL into IN. ...AR into southeast OK and northeast/central TX this afternoon... Despite some cloud cover, surface heating in cloud breaks is allowing surface temperatures to warm into the 80s with low-mid 70s boundary-layer dewpoints, beneath midlevel lapse rates in excess of 8 C/km. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon along the primary wind shift from AR/southeast OK into northeast and potentially central TX. MLCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg and long hodographs with strong deep-layer shear will favor supercells capable of producing very large hail (3-4 inches in diameter) with the initial discrete storms, and damaging gusts of 60-75 mph. The tornado threat is less certain given relatively weak low-level shear (as a result of the primary mass response/low-level jet into the TN/OH Valleys), and will likely rely on favorable storm interactions. ..Thompson/Grams.. 05/16/2025 Read more

MD 0807 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 259... FOR NORTHEAST AR INTO CENTRAL KY
Mesoscale Discussion 0807 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Areas affected...northeast AR into central KY Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 259... Valid 161240Z - 161445Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 259 continues. SUMMARY...Thunderstorm cluster may continue to pose a risk for hail and sporadic strong gusts this morning. Local watch extension may be needed for portions of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 259. DISCUSSION...Strong to severe thunderstorms continue from northeast AR into central KY this morning. While previously a new watch was considered, given some weakening in the clusters across central KY, local watch extensions may be more appropriate as uncertainty in downstream evolution has increased. Nevertheless, a favorable environment will persist, supporting a continued large hail risk in the short term. If further upscale growth occurs with ongoing clusters, a risk for damaging gust potential could increase later this morning or toward midday downstream from WW 259. Local watch extensions for 1-2 hours may be need if current trends persist for another 30-60 minutes. ..Leitman.. 05/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LZK... LAT...LON 35859123 36958951 37858730 38108569 38108488 37628479 37108553 36058880 35559013 35419106 35469128 35859123 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 0808 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC STATES
Mesoscale Discussion 0808 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0846 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Areas affected...the Lower Mid-Atlantic States Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 161346Z - 161545Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A few supercells could develop before midday across parts of the Lower Mid-Atlantic region. Large hail and damaging winds should be the primary hazards into early afternoon. DISCUSSION...An arcing band of convective development is underway south of a morning MCS across over central/eastern PA. This arc extends southward through central MD towards the DC metro vicinity. 12Z WAL to PIT soundings sampled a favorable environment for supercells with 40-50 kt effective bulk shear, largely driven by speed change with height amid unidirectional west-northwesterlies. This was coupled with moderate mid-level lapse rates of 6.5 to 7 C/km. 12Z HRRR and 00Z HREF guidance have a signal for longer-track 2-5 km UH, with potential for a few supercells. Given the orientation of the convective development, this seems probable across parts of eastern MD, DE, and far southern NJ. Pronounced surface heating in this area, south of persistent cloudiness farther north, will aid in further destabilization and increase the risk for both large hail and damaging winds by midday. ..Grams/Mosier.. 05/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 40727641 40517541 39887448 39177448 38267486 38037544 38087591 38427700 38917704 39777645 40277652 40727641 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 0809 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN MISSOURI...FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0809 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0911 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Areas affected...northern Arkansas...southern Missouri...far northeast Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 161411Z - 161645Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...At least isolated supercells may develop over the next few hours, from far northeast Oklahoma into northern Arkansas and southern Missouri. Very large hail is likely with any development, and tornado risk will develop over time. DISCUSSION...Surface analysis and visible imagery clearly show a cold front extending from northwest TX into eastern OK and toward northwest MO, with a warm front rapidly pushing north across northern AR into southern MO. Satellite presentation across the warm sector indicates both a very moist air mass, with heating and mixing likely. The 12Z LZK sounding depicts the robust moisture and instability, with minimal real capping in place. As surface theta-e develops northward beneath the midlevel temperature gradient, and, the cold front pushes east into the heating air mass, at least isolated, early (midday) activity may develop given no cap, possibly as far west as OK. Some numerical guidance suggests this may occur, and this seem plausible. However, coverage of severe is a bit unclear this early in the day. At any rate, a conditional risk of very large, destructive hail exists. It also appears low-level SRH will remain sufficient during the day for a strong tornado risk, even as low-level winds gradually veer and reduce bulk values at or below 200 m2/s2. With such steep lapse rates and robust boundary layer moisture, intense updrafts should be more than enough to compensate for any marginal low-level shear. ..Jewell.. 05/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA... LAT...LON 35549240 35319480 35519540 36079508 36849465 37169450 37369303 37449195 37179153 36519122 35699156 35549240 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN Read more

MD 0810 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
Mesoscale Discussion 0810 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0926 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Areas affected...the Cumberland Plateau and southern Appalachians Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 161426Z - 161630Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Severe threat, primarily in the form of large hail and eventually damaging winds, is expected to increase across the Cumberland Plateau and a part of the southern Appalachians. DISCUSSION...An arcing band of thunderstorms has developed into eastern KY, downstream of a broad MCS over central/western KY into northwest TN. Despite an ample cirrus canopy to the east, moderate insolation is underway. Coupled with steep mid-level lapse rates, as sampled in regional 12Z soundings, the plume of large buoyancy over the TN Valley will extend northeastward towards the southern Appalachians. Fast, nearly unidirectional westerly deep-layer shear should favor at least a few supercells ahead of the MCS moving east. A mix of large hail, which could be significant, along with damaging winds seems likely. ..Grams/Mosier.. 05/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...LMK... LAT...LON 38178385 38138243 37918045 37618009 37297992 36578015 36018077 36268280 36528419 36778477 38178385 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0260 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0260 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more