Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Tuesday... As the primary mid-level trough shifts east on Tuesday, scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley. Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints will be present ahead of a cold front. Convection/cloud cover from Day 3 convection across the Plains/Ozarks will impact destabilization across Kentucky and into the Ohio Valley. However, farther south, strong destabilization is likely as the boundary layer heats beneath steepening mid-level lapse rates. 50 to 60 knots of mid-level flow will overspread this unstable warm sector during the afternoon Tuesday. As this occurs, an uncapped boundary layer and synoptic scale ascent should combine for scattered severe storm development. Wherever moderate to strong instability develops, most likely south of the TN/KY border, supercells are anticipated with a primary threat for large hail. By later in the evening, storms may congeal into a MCS with an increasing damaging wind threat. ...Day 5/Wednesday... A cold front will advance across the Appalachians on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. Moderate instability is forecast ahead of this cold front Wednesday morning/early afternoon. A few strong to severe storms may develop along the front before it moves into the Atlantic. However, the limited duration of this threat, and potential for timing shifts as newer guidance arrives, precludes severe weather probabilities at this time. ...Day6-8.. A relatively benign severe weather pattern is expected from Thursday/Day 6 into next weekend as a cold front pushes into the Gulf. A few storms are possible along the cold front as it moves south along the Florida Peninsula on Thursday. Otherwise, more robust moisture recovery will begin Thursday night. Overall, moisture quality will be low initially, but eventually some threat may develop across the Plains as low-level moisture advection continues. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Tuesday... As the primary mid-level trough shifts east on Tuesday, scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley. Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints will be present ahead of a cold front. Convection/cloud cover from Day 3 convection across the Plains/Ozarks will impact destabilization across Kentucky and into the Ohio Valley. However, farther south, strong destabilization is likely as the boundary layer heats beneath steepening mid-level lapse rates. 50 to 60 knots of mid-level flow will overspread this unstable warm sector during the afternoon Tuesday. As this occurs, an uncapped boundary layer and synoptic scale ascent should combine for scattered severe storm development. Wherever moderate to strong instability develops, most likely south of the TN/KY border, supercells are anticipated with a primary threat for large hail. By later in the evening, storms may congeal into a MCS with an increasing damaging wind threat. ...Day 5/Wednesday... A cold front will advance across the Appalachians on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. Moderate instability is forecast ahead of this cold front Wednesday morning/early afternoon. A few strong to severe storms may develop along the front before it moves into the Atlantic. However, the limited duration of this threat, and potential for timing shifts as newer guidance arrives, precludes severe weather probabilities at this time. ...Day6-8.. A relatively benign severe weather pattern is expected from Thursday/Day 6 into next weekend as a cold front pushes into the Gulf. A few storms are possible along the cold front as it moves south along the Florida Peninsula on Thursday. Otherwise, more robust moisture recovery will begin Thursday night. Overall, moisture quality will be low initially, but eventually some threat may develop across the Plains as low-level moisture advection continues. Read more

WW 0276 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0276 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0276 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0276 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 276 SEVERE TSTM GA NC SC VA 170835Z - 171600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 276 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 435 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Extreme Northeast Georgia Western and Central North Carolina Northern South Carolina Southern Virginia * Effective this Saturday morning from 435 AM until NOON EDT. * Primary threats include... Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and move east across the watch area through mid morning. Damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail will be the primary severe threats, and a tornado or two will also be possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles north northwest of South Hill VA to 40 miles west southwest of Charlotte NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 274...WW 275... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27040. ...Bunting Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH TEXAS...MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...EASTERN KANSAS...FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with all severe weather hazards are likely from portions of the Midwest to the southern Plains on Monday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will move over the central/southern Plains on Monday. At the surface, an area of low pressure will move slowly east across Kansas and eventually into Missouri. A sharp dryline will extend from this surface low southward along the I-35 corridor into north-central Texas. A warm front will extend from this surface low southeastward into portions of the lower Ohio Valley and into the Carolinas Monday morning. This front will move slowly north through the day. ...Central/Southern Plains into the Midwest... Strong to very strong instability will develop across the Plains and into the Ozarks on Monday as temperatures warm into the 80s with dewpoints in the low 70s while mid-level temperatures cool ahead of the approaching mid-level trough. As strengthening mid-level flow overspreads the warm sector, a favorable environment for intense supercells will develop with 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE and 50+ knots of shear across a broad region. Large to very large hail will be likely within supercells across eastern Kansas and Oklahoma into northern Texas. The tornado threat remains potent but more uncertain. The weakening nature of the surface low and a strengthening low-level jet during the evening when mode remains less clear are the primary uncertainties at this time. Eventually expect storms to congeal into one or more MCSs with an increasing severe wind threat. Additional storms are likely late Monday evening as a cold front overtakes the dryline across Kansas and eventually into Oklahoma. Storm intensity during this period remains unclear as it will depend greatly on remaining instability in the wake of earlier convection. Regardless, if earlier convection does not materialize as expected, more robust storms are likely along the cold front. Therefore, between the likely dryline storms during the afternoon and potential for storms along the cold front Monday evening, numerous severe thunderstorms are likely across Kansas and Oklahoma with that threat continuing eastward into parts of Missouri and Arkansas Monday evening. ..Bentley.. 05/17/2025 Read more

WW 0275 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0275 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 275 SEVERE TSTM AL MS 170715Z - 171500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 275 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 215 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern and Central Alabama Central Mississippi * Effective this Saturday morning from 215 AM until 1000 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to move east-southeast across the watch area through mid morning with a risk for damaging wind gusts and large hail. A tornado or two will also be possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 35 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles southwest of Greenwood MS to 40 miles northeast of Gadsden AL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 271...WW 273...WW 274... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27040. ...Bunting Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0105 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... On Sunday, a mid-level trough (and associated wind speed maximum) is forecast to progress across the Four Corners region into the southern High Plains. Deep boundary-layer mixing behind a sharpening dryline and deepening surface cyclone will result in widespread Critical conditions, primarily across southern New Mexico into far West Texas. ...Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... As the surface cyclone over the southern High Plains deepens and the dryline mixes eastward, surface winds of 20-25 MPH with 5-10% relative humidity are forecast. Fuels will be receptive to rapid wildfire ignition and spread, with ERC percentiles at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. There is some suggestion in the 00Z HREF ensemble guidance that winds could reach 30 MPH, though there is not enough confidence at this time to introduce any Extremely Critical highlights. Further east into Texas, meteorological conditions will also reach Critical threshold -- however, current fuels guidance shows fuels are only at or below average, so only Elevated highlights have been maintained at this time. ..Halbert.. 05/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0105 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... On Sunday, a mid-level trough (and associated wind speed maximum) is forecast to progress across the Four Corners region into the southern High Plains. Deep boundary-layer mixing behind a sharpening dryline and deepening surface cyclone will result in widespread Critical conditions, primarily across southern New Mexico into far West Texas. ...Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... As the surface cyclone over the southern High Plains deepens and the dryline mixes eastward, surface winds of 20-25 MPH with 5-10% relative humidity are forecast. Fuels will be receptive to rapid wildfire ignition and spread, with ERC percentiles at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. There is some suggestion in the 00Z HREF ensemble guidance that winds could reach 30 MPH, though there is not enough confidence at this time to introduce any Extremely Critical highlights. Further east into Texas, meteorological conditions will also reach Critical threshold -- however, current fuels guidance shows fuels are only at or below average, so only Elevated highlights have been maintained at this time. ..Halbert.. 05/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough and associated speed maximum is forecast to progress from Baja into the desert southwest during the morning and afternoon. Deep boundary-layer mixing and lee cyclogenesis over the southern High Plains will result in critical conditions over much of southern New Mexico into portions of far West Texas and far southeastern Arizona. ...Southern New Mexico... As the boundary-layer mixes and the surface cyclone over the southern High Plains deepens, sustained surface winds of 20-25 MPH coupled with 5-10% relative humidity and receptive fuels are anticipated. Critical meteorological conditions are also expected in portions of eastern New Mexico and West Texas, as well as parts of Arizona along the Mogollon Rim. However, current fuels guidance indicates fuels are at or below their typical seasonal values, warranting only Elevated highlights at this time. ..Halbert.. 05/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough and associated speed maximum is forecast to progress from Baja into the desert southwest during the morning and afternoon. Deep boundary-layer mixing and lee cyclogenesis over the southern High Plains will result in critical conditions over much of southern New Mexico into portions of far West Texas and far southeastern Arizona. ...Southern New Mexico... As the boundary-layer mixes and the surface cyclone over the southern High Plains deepens, sustained surface winds of 20-25 MPH coupled with 5-10% relative humidity and receptive fuels are anticipated. Critical meteorological conditions are also expected in portions of eastern New Mexico and West Texas, as well as parts of Arizona along the Mogollon Rim. However, current fuels guidance indicates fuels are at or below their typical seasonal values, warranting only Elevated highlights at this time. ..Halbert.. 05/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected on Sunday across portions of the central and southern Plains. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough will move from the Southwest into the Central Plains on Sunday as the broader trough develops across the Intermountain West. By 00Z Monday, a ~992mb lee cyclone will develop along the KS/CO border. A warm front will extend from this surface low into northern Kansas/southern Nebraska by Sunday evening and will remain mostly stationary across the Southeast. A dryline will extend from central Kansas to the southern Plains. ...Kansas and northern Oklahoma... A very moist airmass will be in place east of the dryline on Sunday with low 70s dewpoints forecast across much of Texas, Oklahoma, and southern Kansas ahead of the surface boundary. As temperatures warm, strong to very strong instability is forecast to develop. As the mid-level shortwave trough emerges across the Plains, synoptic-scale ascent will combine with the increasing instability to decrease inhibition across much of the dryline. Forecast guidance shows limited convergence along the dryline in Oklahoma and Texas during the day Sunday with the better convergence focused across Kansas. Therefore, confidence is higher for storms across central and southern Kansas and perhaps into northern Oklahoma. Any storms which develop will be supercellular with a threat for very large hail and tornadoes, particularly by later in the evening as the low-level jet strengthens. While confidence is higher in storms across the Enhanced risk area, storm evolution remains unclear. 00Z CAM guidance has wide variations in the northeastward progression of the surface warm front which will significantly impact storm development on Sunday. A more discrete storm mode would likely pose a greater very large hail and tornado threat, while more widespread storm development would likely favor development into a MCS which could pose a greater severe wind threat across eastern Kansas and into Missouri. Despite the uncertainties, the Enhanced (Level 3 of 5) risk seems appropriately placed where severe storms are most likely. The 10% tornado probabilities do not extend to the northern extent of the Enhanced due to the aforementioned uncertainties in the warm frontal position. However, elevated hail will remain a threat north of the warm front. ...Oklahoma/Texas... A dryline will be in place across western Oklahoma and north Texas for much of the day Sunday. Convergence will be mostly weak along the Oklahoma dryline for much of the day with better convergence farther south in Texas, farther from the better upper-level forcing. However, by the evening, convergence will increase somewhat which could result in isolated supercell development as the low-level jet intensifies during the evening. The environment across Oklahoma and North Texas will be very volatile with a conditional threat for intense supercells capable of very large hail and strong tornadoes. ...Northeast CO/Southwest Nebraska Vicinity... By Sunday afternoon, low to mid 60s dewpoints will advect westward around the surface low into northwest Kansas, northeast Colorado, and southwest Nebraska. Moderate to strong instability is forecast ahead of the dryline which will aid in supercell development by the afternoon. A narrow corridor of instability will be the primary limiting factor to the tornado threat in an otherwise very favorable STP environment. It appears supercells will likely be north of the boundary before maturing which will support a primary threat for large hail. However, if a storm can rapidly mature as it develops off the dryline, it could pose a tornado threat given the favorable low-level shear across the region. ...Mid Mississippi Valley to the Southeast... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along a stalled frontal zone that will extend from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Southeast. Moderate to strong instability will be in place within a moderately sheared environment. Forcing will be weak along the front with neutral to perhaps slightly rising heights aloft. However, forecast soundings show minimal inhibition and therefore, isolated development is possible. A greater severe threat could materialize from a remnant MCV/MCS which will likely evolve from Day 1/Saturday convection across north Texas. If this maintains along the frontal zone into the late morning on Sunday, it could provide a focused region of greater severe weather threat Sunday afternoon across AL/GA. ..Bentley.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected on Sunday across portions of the central and southern Plains. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough will move from the Southwest into the Central Plains on Sunday as the broader trough develops across the Intermountain West. By 00Z Monday, a ~992mb lee cyclone will develop along the KS/CO border. A warm front will extend from this surface low into northern Kansas/southern Nebraska by Sunday evening and will remain mostly stationary across the Southeast. A dryline will extend from central Kansas to the southern Plains. ...Kansas and northern Oklahoma... A very moist airmass will be in place east of the dryline on Sunday with low 70s dewpoints forecast across much of Texas, Oklahoma, and southern Kansas ahead of the surface boundary. As temperatures warm, strong to very strong instability is forecast to develop. As the mid-level shortwave trough emerges across the Plains, synoptic-scale ascent will combine with the increasing instability to decrease inhibition across much of the dryline. Forecast guidance shows limited convergence along the dryline in Oklahoma and Texas during the day Sunday with the better convergence focused across Kansas. Therefore, confidence is higher for storms across central and southern Kansas and perhaps into northern Oklahoma. Any storms which develop will be supercellular with a threat for very large hail and tornadoes, particularly by later in the evening as the low-level jet strengthens. While confidence is higher in storms across the Enhanced risk area, storm evolution remains unclear. 00Z CAM guidance has wide variations in the northeastward progression of the surface warm front which will significantly impact storm development on Sunday. A more discrete storm mode would likely pose a greater very large hail and tornado threat, while more widespread storm development would likely favor development into a MCS which could pose a greater severe wind threat across eastern Kansas and into Missouri. Despite the uncertainties, the Enhanced (Level 3 of 5) risk seems appropriately placed where severe storms are most likely. The 10% tornado probabilities do not extend to the northern extent of the Enhanced due to the aforementioned uncertainties in the warm frontal position. However, elevated hail will remain a threat north of the warm front. ...Oklahoma/Texas... A dryline will be in place across western Oklahoma and north Texas for much of the day Sunday. Convergence will be mostly weak along the Oklahoma dryline for much of the day with better convergence farther south in Texas, farther from the better upper-level forcing. However, by the evening, convergence will increase somewhat which could result in isolated supercell development as the low-level jet intensifies during the evening. The environment across Oklahoma and North Texas will be very volatile with a conditional threat for intense supercells capable of very large hail and strong tornadoes. ...Northeast CO/Southwest Nebraska Vicinity... By Sunday afternoon, low to mid 60s dewpoints will advect westward around the surface low into northwest Kansas, northeast Colorado, and southwest Nebraska. Moderate to strong instability is forecast ahead of the dryline which will aid in supercell development by the afternoon. A narrow corridor of instability will be the primary limiting factor to the tornado threat in an otherwise very favorable STP environment. It appears supercells will likely be north of the boundary before maturing which will support a primary threat for large hail. However, if a storm can rapidly mature as it develops off the dryline, it could pose a tornado threat given the favorable low-level shear across the region. ...Mid Mississippi Valley to the Southeast... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along a stalled frontal zone that will extend from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Southeast. Moderate to strong instability will be in place within a moderately sheared environment. Forcing will be weak along the front with neutral to perhaps slightly rising heights aloft. However, forecast soundings show minimal inhibition and therefore, isolated development is possible. A greater severe threat could materialize from a remnant MCV/MCS which will likely evolve from Day 1/Saturday convection across north Texas. If this maintains along the frontal zone into the late morning on Sunday, it could provide a focused region of greater severe weather threat Sunday afternoon across AL/GA. ..Bentley.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are expected across the southern Plains. Additional severe storms are possible across the Northeast. ...Southern Plains Region... Strong southern-stream short-wave trough is clearly evident in water-vapor imagery just west of the Baja Peninsula early this morning. This feature appears to be handled well by latest model guidance, and is forecast to advance into southern AZ/northwest Mexico by sunrise, and to near the NM/TX border by 18/00z. There is some indication that a weak disturbance will translate into far west TX just ahead of the main trough, and this weak feature may prove to be the more meaningful disturbance in regards to severe thunderstorm development later today...especially across north TX. Latest surface analysis depicts a sharp demarcation in moisture along a stalled surface front across TX. Surface dew points in the lower 70s will easily advance north with this boundary as it returns across the southern Plains today. Extreme buoyancy will develop across the warm sector ahead of the aforementioned disturbance, and more pronounced short wave. 00z model guidance is fairly consistent regarding early-day convective initiation along the dry line. Forecast soundings suggest negligible CINH from SJT-ABI by 17-18z, and robust convection will likely develop by early afternoon. Deep-layer flow is more than sufficient for supercells and cool, steep lapse rates favor very large hail (>3 inches possible) with the strongest storms. Given the strong, consistent signal in the 00z model guidance, will increase severe probabilities across much of north TX to account for scattered-numerous supercells/clusters spreading toward the DFW Metroplex by late afternoon. While low-level shear is not particularly strong, some tornado potential will likely exist with the more organized supercells. Farther north across OK into southern KS, substantial destabilization is expected as 70s dew points spread rapidly north as a warm front establishes itself across southern KS overnight. Precip signal is not particularly noteworthy along the dry line over OK, but weak CINH does cause concern for isolated supercell development. Storm potential appears somewhat greater across southern KS near/after sunset as moisture returns to this region. Some consideration was given to higher tornado probabilities along a narrow wedge of northwest OK into southwest KS near the boundary for this possibility. This may need to be adjusted in later outlooks. ...Northeast... Strong 12hr mid-level height falls will spread across much of the northeastern U.S. today in response to the approaching Great Lakes upper low. High-level diffluent flow aloft will overspread much of NY into New England as the left-exit region of the 500mb jet translates across PA. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along/ahead of the synoptic cold front across upstate NY, with subsequent movement expected into western New England. Wind/hail are the primary risks with this activity, though a brief tornado can not be ruled out with stronger supercells. ..Darrow/Halbert.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are expected across the southern Plains. Additional severe storms are possible across the Northeast. ...Southern Plains Region... Strong southern-stream short-wave trough is clearly evident in water-vapor imagery just west of the Baja Peninsula early this morning. This feature appears to be handled well by latest model guidance, and is forecast to advance into southern AZ/northwest Mexico by sunrise, and to near the NM/TX border by 18/00z. There is some indication that a weak disturbance will translate into far west TX just ahead of the main trough, and this weak feature may prove to be the more meaningful disturbance in regards to severe thunderstorm development later today...especially across north TX. Latest surface analysis depicts a sharp demarcation in moisture along a stalled surface front across TX. Surface dew points in the lower 70s will easily advance north with this boundary as it returns across the southern Plains today. Extreme buoyancy will develop across the warm sector ahead of the aforementioned disturbance, and more pronounced short wave. 00z model guidance is fairly consistent regarding early-day convective initiation along the dry line. Forecast soundings suggest negligible CINH from SJT-ABI by 17-18z, and robust convection will likely develop by early afternoon. Deep-layer flow is more than sufficient for supercells and cool, steep lapse rates favor very large hail (>3 inches possible) with the strongest storms. Given the strong, consistent signal in the 00z model guidance, will increase severe probabilities across much of north TX to account for scattered-numerous supercells/clusters spreading toward the DFW Metroplex by late afternoon. While low-level shear is not particularly strong, some tornado potential will likely exist with the more organized supercells. Farther north across OK into southern KS, substantial destabilization is expected as 70s dew points spread rapidly north as a warm front establishes itself across southern KS overnight. Precip signal is not particularly noteworthy along the dry line over OK, but weak CINH does cause concern for isolated supercell development. Storm potential appears somewhat greater across southern KS near/after sunset as moisture returns to this region. Some consideration was given to higher tornado probabilities along a narrow wedge of northwest OK into southwest KS near the boundary for this possibility. This may need to be adjusted in later outlooks. ...Northeast... Strong 12hr mid-level height falls will spread across much of the northeastern U.S. today in response to the approaching Great Lakes upper low. High-level diffluent flow aloft will overspread much of NY into New England as the left-exit region of the 500mb jet translates across PA. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along/ahead of the synoptic cold front across upstate NY, with subsequent movement expected into western New England. Wind/hail are the primary risks with this activity, though a brief tornado can not be ruled out with stronger supercells. ..Darrow/Halbert.. 05/17/2025 Read more

WW 0274 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0274 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0274 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0274 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 274 SEVERE TSTM AR MS 170450Z - 171000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 274 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Arkansas Western Mississippi * Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 1150 PM until 500 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Supercells should continue to pose a threat for large hail up to 1-2 inches in diameter as they spread eastward overnight. Scattered severe/damaging winds may occur if a cluster can form along/ahead of a cold front. A tornado or two also remains possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 35 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles west southwest of Pine Bluff AR to 20 miles east northeast of Greenville MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 269...WW 270...WW 271...WW 272...WW 273... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28035. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0269 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 269 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE BWG TO 35 N LOZ TO 50 NNW JKL TO 35 NNW CMH. ..BROYLES..05/17/25 ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...JKL...RLX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 269 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC013-019-025-043-051-053-057-063-065-071-089-095-109-115-119- 121-125-127-129-131-133-135-147-153-159-165-171-175-189-193-195- 197-199-203-205-207-231-235-237-170540- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELL BOYD BREATHITT CARTER CLAY CLINTON CUMBERLAND ELLIOTT ESTILL FLOYD GREENUP HARLAN JACKSON JOHNSON KNOTT KNOX LAUREL LAWRENCE LEE LESLIE LETCHER LEWIS MCCREARY MAGOFFIN MARTIN MENIFEE MONROE MORGAN OWSLEY PERRY PIKE POWELL PULASKI ROCKCASTLE ROWAN RUSSELL WAYNE WHITLEY WOLFE OHC001-009-041-045-049-053-073-079-087-089-097-105-115-127-129- 131-141-145-163-170540- Read more