SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... An upper trough will quickly move eastward over the central US with accompanying strong mid-level flow. A deepening lee cyclone will intensify further as it move into the Upper Midwest tonight. As the low deepens, a Pacific cold front and tailing dryline will move quickly through the Rockies, into the Plains and Midwest States. Cooler temperatures, gusty westerly winds and some precipitation are possible along and behind the front through tonight. Elevated fire-weather conditions are possible over parts of the southern Plains and Southwest. ...Southwest... Persistent westerly flow will continue across the Southwest today and tonight as a weak pacific front moves over the Rockies. This will support another day of dry and windy conditions across parts of eastern AZ and southern NM. Despite somewhat cooler temperatures behind the front, downsloping and deep vertical mixing will support RH below 20% and winds of 15-20% amidst dry fuels. Widespread elevated to locally critical conditions are expected. Some fire-weather risk may also extend into West TX behind an eastward mixing dryline. However, winds here may be somewhat weaker despite very warm surface temperatures and lower humidity. Locally elevated conditions are possible within drying fuels. ...Central plains and Midwest... Gusty westerly winds are possible behind the advancing cold front from parts of the central Plains into western IA and MO this afternoon. While gusts may reach 20-25 mph, RH values are not expected to be critical with cooler temperatures. Additionally, recent wetting rainfall may temporarily limit available fuels. This suggests any fire-weather concerns will be localized and short lived. ..Lyons.. 05/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... An upper trough will quickly move eastward over the central US with accompanying strong mid-level flow. A deepening lee cyclone will intensify further as it move into the Upper Midwest tonight. As the low deepens, a Pacific cold front and tailing dryline will move quickly through the Rockies, into the Plains and Midwest States. Cooler temperatures, gusty westerly winds and some precipitation are possible along and behind the front through tonight. Elevated fire-weather conditions are possible over parts of the southern Plains and Southwest. ...Southwest... Persistent westerly flow will continue across the Southwest today and tonight as a weak pacific front moves over the Rockies. This will support another day of dry and windy conditions across parts of eastern AZ and southern NM. Despite somewhat cooler temperatures behind the front, downsloping and deep vertical mixing will support RH below 20% and winds of 15-20% amidst dry fuels. Widespread elevated to locally critical conditions are expected. Some fire-weather risk may also extend into West TX behind an eastward mixing dryline. However, winds here may be somewhat weaker despite very warm surface temperatures and lower humidity. Locally elevated conditions are possible within drying fuels. ...Central plains and Midwest... Gusty westerly winds are possible behind the advancing cold front from parts of the central Plains into western IA and MO this afternoon. While gusts may reach 20-25 mph, RH values are not expected to be critical with cooler temperatures. Additionally, recent wetting rainfall may temporarily limit available fuels. This suggests any fire-weather concerns will be localized and short lived. ..Lyons.. 05/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN MINNESOTA...WISCONSIN...NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...NORTHERN INDIANA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN MICHIGAN...AND FAR NORTHWEST OHIO... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...GREAT LAKES...OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the upper Mississippi River Valley and Great Lakes this afternoon and evening. Hailstones greater than 2 inches will be possible, along with tornadoes with a few that could be strong. Scattered wind damage will be likely, with wind gusts over 75 mph over parts of Lower Michigan and northern Indiana. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also expected through the lower Ohio River Valley, Ozarks and in parts of the Mid-Atlantic. ...Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes/Ohio Valley... A negatively-tilted mid-level trough will move northeastward into the Upper Midwest today, as an associated jet streak translates eastward into the Ozarks. A secondary jet streak will move northeastward into the mid Missouri Valley. Strong large-scale ascent will overspread a broad moist sector from the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley, resulting in a widespread severe weather event today. At the surface, a low will consolidate and move northward across the eastern Dakotas. A well defined warm front will advance northward into the Wisconsin, as a cold front moves eastward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints from the mid 60s to the lower 70s F will result in moderate instability over much of the moist sector. Thunderstorms are first expected to initiate near the mid-level low over the upper Mississippi Valley, with storms developing south-southeastward along and ahead of the front during the afternoon. Indications suggest that the storms will remain somewhat spaced out, at least early in the event. The discrete nature of the convection, combined with moderate deep-layer shear, will be favorable for supercell development. A broken line of severe storms is expected to move east-northeastward into the vicinities of Milwaukee and Chicago late this afternoon. RAP forecast soundings at 21Z along the western shore of Lake Michigan have MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear of 35 to 40 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.5 C/km. This will be favorable for large hail and wind damage associated with supercells. The more intense supercells may produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 250 to 300 m2/s2 will also support tornadoes, with the threat becoming maximized as supercells mature. A few strong tornadoes appear likely. Severe threat coverage will likely be maintained as a broken line segment gradually organizes. A transition to linear mode appears likely by early evening. Supercells and rotating elements within the line should be capable of producing tornadoes. Wind damage will also be likely along the leading edge of the line, with gusts over 75 mph possible from western Lower Michigan southward into northern Indiana. A potential for hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will continue during the early evening with supercells embedded within the line. Further south into the lower Ohio Valley, storm coverage will be a bit more isolated. However, cells that can develop within the strongly unstable airmass will likely become supercells with large hail and severe gusts. A tornado threat is also expected. It appears that a corridor of greater severe threat will develop somewhere near the Ohio River during the late afternoon, which could be dependent upon the distribution and magnitude of instability. ...Ozarks/Ark-La-Tex... Southwest mid-level flow will be in place today across the Ozarks and Ark-La-Tex, as a jet streak moves eastward into the region. A moist airmass will be in place to the southeast of the jet, where surface dewpoints will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s F. By afternoon, much of this airmass will be moderately unstable. However, large-scale ascent to the south of the jet is forecast to remain relatively weak, which should keep convective development isolated. Any cell that can initiate despite a capping inversion could become severe and have a large hail and wind-damage threat. The threat could persist from late afternoon into the early evening. ....Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... A mid-level ridge will move eastward into the central Appalachians today, as northwesterly flow remains to the east of the Appalachian crest. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place along much of the southern and central Atlantic Seaboard. Surface dewpoints in the 60s F will likely result in moderate instability by afternoon. Although large-scale ascent will be weak, topographic forcing and increasing low-level convergence could aid convective initiation as surface temperatures warm up. Short-term model solutions suggest the greatest convective potential will be across eastern Virginia, where low-level flow is forecast to increase during the day. This, combined with moderate deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates, may be enough for an isolated severe threat. Severe wind gusts and large hail will be possible with supercells or short intense line segments. ..Broyles/Lyons.. 05/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN MINNESOTA...WISCONSIN...NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...NORTHERN INDIANA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN MICHIGAN...AND FAR NORTHWEST OHIO... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...GREAT LAKES...OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the upper Mississippi River Valley and Great Lakes this afternoon and evening. Hailstones greater than 2 inches will be possible, along with tornadoes with a few that could be strong. Scattered wind damage will be likely, with wind gusts over 75 mph over parts of Lower Michigan and northern Indiana. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also expected through the lower Ohio River Valley, Ozarks and in parts of the Mid-Atlantic. ...Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes/Ohio Valley... A negatively-tilted mid-level trough will move northeastward into the Upper Midwest today, as an associated jet streak translates eastward into the Ozarks. A secondary jet streak will move northeastward into the mid Missouri Valley. Strong large-scale ascent will overspread a broad moist sector from the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley, resulting in a widespread severe weather event today. At the surface, a low will consolidate and move northward across the eastern Dakotas. A well defined warm front will advance northward into the Wisconsin, as a cold front moves eastward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints from the mid 60s to the lower 70s F will result in moderate instability over much of the moist sector. Thunderstorms are first expected to initiate near the mid-level low over the upper Mississippi Valley, with storms developing south-southeastward along and ahead of the front during the afternoon. Indications suggest that the storms will remain somewhat spaced out, at least early in the event. The discrete nature of the convection, combined with moderate deep-layer shear, will be favorable for supercell development. A broken line of severe storms is expected to move east-northeastward into the vicinities of Milwaukee and Chicago late this afternoon. RAP forecast soundings at 21Z along the western shore of Lake Michigan have MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear of 35 to 40 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.5 C/km. This will be favorable for large hail and wind damage associated with supercells. The more intense supercells may produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 250 to 300 m2/s2 will also support tornadoes, with the threat becoming maximized as supercells mature. A few strong tornadoes appear likely. Severe threat coverage will likely be maintained as a broken line segment gradually organizes. A transition to linear mode appears likely by early evening. Supercells and rotating elements within the line should be capable of producing tornadoes. Wind damage will also be likely along the leading edge of the line, with gusts over 75 mph possible from western Lower Michigan southward into northern Indiana. A potential for hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will continue during the early evening with supercells embedded within the line. Further south into the lower Ohio Valley, storm coverage will be a bit more isolated. However, cells that can develop within the strongly unstable airmass will likely become supercells with large hail and severe gusts. A tornado threat is also expected. It appears that a corridor of greater severe threat will develop somewhere near the Ohio River during the late afternoon, which could be dependent upon the distribution and magnitude of instability. ...Ozarks/Ark-La-Tex... Southwest mid-level flow will be in place today across the Ozarks and Ark-La-Tex, as a jet streak moves eastward into the region. A moist airmass will be in place to the southeast of the jet, where surface dewpoints will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s F. By afternoon, much of this airmass will be moderately unstable. However, large-scale ascent to the south of the jet is forecast to remain relatively weak, which should keep convective development isolated. Any cell that can initiate despite a capping inversion could become severe and have a large hail and wind-damage threat. The threat could persist from late afternoon into the early evening. ....Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... A mid-level ridge will move eastward into the central Appalachians today, as northwesterly flow remains to the east of the Appalachian crest. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place along much of the southern and central Atlantic Seaboard. Surface dewpoints in the 60s F will likely result in moderate instability by afternoon. Although large-scale ascent will be weak, topographic forcing and increasing low-level convergence could aid convective initiation as surface temperatures warm up. Short-term model solutions suggest the greatest convective potential will be across eastern Virginia, where low-level flow is forecast to increase during the day. This, combined with moderate deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates, may be enough for an isolated severe threat. Severe wind gusts and large hail will be possible with supercells or short intense line segments. ..Broyles/Lyons.. 05/15/2025 Read more

MD 0782 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 249... FOR NORTHERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 0782 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1011 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025 Areas affected...Northern Nebraska...Southeast South Dakota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 249... Valid 150311Z - 150445Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 249 continues. SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms will continue propagating northeast. DISCUSSION...Low-level warm advection is strengthening across northeast NE into southeast SD as LLJ focuses into this region of the Plains. Latest radar data supports this with gradual convective expansion through storm mergers and clustering. A broader MCS may be evolving, though a few supercells persist along the southern fringe of the expanding complex. Hail likely continues with the stronger supercells, and damaging winds may also be noted, especially as the upstream high-Plains convection surges into the southern flanks of this activity. With time, severe threat should increase into southeastern SD as the LLJ shifts into this region. ..Darrow.. 05/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... LAT...LON 41679972 43629871 43309734 41469809 41679972 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0247 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 247 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W VTN TO 45 SSW 9V9. ..SPC..05/15/25 ATTN...WFO...LBF...ABR...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 247 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC005-009-017-029-031-041-063-075-085-091-101-103-111-113-115- 117-135-149-171-150340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR BLAINE BROWN CHASE CHERRY CUSTER FRONTIER GRANT HAYES HOOKER KEITH KEYA PAHA LINCOLN LOGAN LOUP MCPHERSON PERKINS ROCK THOMAS SDC123-150340- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE TRIPP THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

WW 0248 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 248 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW GLD TO 40 E AIA. ..LYONS..05/15/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...CYS...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 248 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC023-039-153-179-181-193-150240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE DECATUR RAWLINS SHERIDAN SHERMAN THOMAS NEC057-087-145-150240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DUNDY HITCHCOCK RED WILLOW THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0802 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will occur over parts of the Dakotas and Nebraska this evening, and across far western Iowa and southwestern Minnesota overnight. Very large hail, severe wind gusts, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible. A few marginally severe storms may also occur from the Lower Ohio Valley into the Carolinas. ...Central and Northern Plains... The latest water vapor imagery shows a mid-level trough in the Rockies, with a diffluent pattern over the central and northern Plains. A pronounced dry slot is evident from the southern Rockies into the central Plains, with multiple bands of convection ongoing to the north of this feature. At the surface, a dual-centered 991 mb low is over far southwest Kansas and southern Nebraska, with an inverted trough extending north-northeastward into the eastern Dakotas. To the west of the trough, a cold front is moving east-southeastward across the central and northern Plains. Thunderstorms across the Dakotas are post-frontal, while the storms in Nebraska are straddling the boundary on both sides. These storms are located along an axis of low-level moisture, where surface dewpoints are in the mid to upper 50s F. The strongest instability is located across southwestern and central Nebraska, where temperatures have reached the lower 80s F. Across southern Nebraska, the RAP has MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. So far, several semi-discrete supercells have developed along the northern edge of the strongest instability, from near North Platte, northward into Cherry County, Nebraska. This activity is expected to become more linear with time, as it moves east-northeastward across the remainder of northern Nebraska and into southeastern South Dakota. The greatest tornado potential will exist over the next couple hours in central and northern Nebraska, before convection becomes more linear. The latest WSR-88D VWP at North Platte has 0-3km storm-relative helicity near 230 m2/s2. Low-level shear should strengthen some this evening, helping to maintain a tornado threat with supercells that remain semi-discrete. In addition, a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates is analyzed by the RAP from eastern Colorado into central Nebraska. Supercells at the northeastern edge of this plume will have a large hail threat, and hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. The wind-damage threat will likely increase as a line segments becomes more organized later this evening. Several short-term models suggest that a small-scale bow echo will develop over parts of the central Plains this evening into early tonight, where severe gusts exceeding 70 knots will be possible. The severe threat is expected to move northeastward into parts of Iowa and southwest Minnesota tonight. ...Lower Ohio Valley/Southern Appalachians/Carolinas... A positively-tilted mid-level trough is currently located from the central Appalachians southeastward into the Carolinas. At the surface, a moist airmass is in place across much of the region, with surface dewpoints mostly in the 60s F. Across the moist airmass, the RAP has moderate instability analyzed from the lower Ohio Valley southeastward into the Carolinas. Along this corridor, moderate deep-layer shear is present according to WSR-88D VWPs, which should be enough for a marginal severe threat for a couple more hours this evening. Isolated severe gusts and hail will be the primary threats. ..Broyles.. 05/15/2025 Read more

MD 0780 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 247... FOR NEBRASKA...SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 0780 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0709 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025 Areas affected...Nebraska...South Dakota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 247... Valid 150009Z - 150145Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 247 continues. SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue much of the evening. Hail and wind remain likely with the the most robust convection. DISCUSSION...Strongly diffluent high-level flow is noted across the central Plains early this evening. A considerable amount of convection has developed along a zone of favorable low-level convergence across western/central NE into western SD. Supercells are embedded in this activity with storm motions favoring northward movement along the zone of low-level convergence. However, substantial convection has recently evolved across the high Plains from southeast WY into northeast CO. This expanding precip shield is forward propagating toward the southwestern portions of ww247. Over the next several hours there should be some propensity for the southern-most flank of the ongoing convection to begin to advance east. Until then, large hail will be the primary risk with supercells, while damaging wind threat may increase as the upstream convection surges into the southern part of the watch. ..Darrow.. 05/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR... LAT...LON 40360202 44880120 44889936 40380032 40360202 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 0781 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 248... FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST CO...SOUTHWEST NE AND NORTHWEST KS
Mesoscale Discussion 0781 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025 Areas affected...parts of northeast CO...southwest NE and northwest KS Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 248... Valid 150042Z - 150215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 248 continues. SUMMARY...A cluster of severe storms should continue eastward across WW248. Damaging winds and hail are likely. Local extensions of WW248 will be needed. DISCUSSION...As of 0035 UTC, regional radar analysis showed a cluster of severe storms stretching from southern and western NE, into northeastern CO and approaching northwest KS. Several reports of damaging winds and hail have been received with these storms over the past 2 hours. The severe risk is expected to continue this evening as storms gradually move eastward into increasingly more buoyant air near the north/south oriented stationary front. 45 kt of deep-layer shear and 500-1500 J/kg of MUCAPE will support storm organization with high-based supercell structures (ML LCL > 2500 M AGL) and linear clusters. CAM guidance and radar trends suggest additional upscale growth is likely with time as the low-level jet increases. Later tonight this may focus the severe risk northeastward into southern and central NE. Until then, a severe threat will persist across parts of Northwest KS and southern NE. A local extension of WW248 will likely be needed to cover the increasing risk for hail and damaging gusts this evening. ..Lyons.. 05/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 41290316 40950059 40070016 39460016 39260176 39290312 41290316 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0249 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0249 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0249 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0249 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0247 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 247 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..05/14/25 ATTN...WFO...LBF...ABR...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 247 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC005-009-017-029-031-041-063-075-085-091-101-103-111-113-115- 117-135-149-171-150040- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR BLAINE BROWN CHASE CHERRY CUSTER FRONTIER GRANT HAYES HOOKER KEITH KEYA PAHA LINCOLN LOGAN LOUP MCPHERSON PERKINS ROCK THOMAS SDC065-075-085-095-117-119-121-123-150040- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HUGHES JONES LYMAN MELLETTE STANLEY SULLY TODD TRIPP THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 0248 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 248 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N LIC TO 25 WSW SNY TO 20 NE BFF. ..LYONS..05/14/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...CYS...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 248 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC075-095-115-121-125-150040- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LOGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON YUMA KSC023-150040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE NEC033-049-057-069-123-150040- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE DEUEL DUNDY GARDEN MORRILL Read more

WW 247 SEVERE TSTM NE SD 142050Z - 150400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 247 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 350 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western and Central Nebraska South-Central and Central South Dakota * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 350 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should continue to gradually increase in coverage and intensity this afternoon and evening. Supercells should pose a threat for large to very large hail potentially up to 2-3 inches in diameter, especially across parts of western into central Nebraska. Otherwise, scattered severe wind gusts may occur with any clusters that eventually form. A tornado or two also appears possible, mainly this evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles north of Pierre SD to 25 miles east southeast of Imperial NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 20030. ...Gleason Read more

WW 248 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NE 142235Z - 150400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 248 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 435 PM MDT Wed May 14 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Colorado Northwest Kansas Nebraska Panhandle * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 435 PM until 1000 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...An intensifying cluster of thunderstorms over northeast Colorado will track eastward through the evening, posing a risk of damaging winds gusts and some hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles west northwest of Akron CO to 10 miles northeast of Imperial NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 247... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26035. ...Hart Read more

MD 0779 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO AND THE SOUTHERN NE PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0779 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025 Areas affected...parts of northeast Colorado and the southern NE Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 142156Z - 142330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...High-based showers and storms moving off the higher terrain may pose a risk for isolated damaging gusts and small hail initially. Additional development/upscale growth could occur later this evening with a greater severe risk focused over northeast CO and southern NE. Trends are being monitored for a possible WW. DISCUSSION...As of 2145 UTC, regional radar and satellite imagery showed initial high-based convection has developed across the higher terrain of northeastern CO and southern WY. Supported predominately by broad northeasterly upslope ahead of a cold front, the environment across northern CO is not particularity unstable (MUCAPE < 500 J/kg) with dewpoints in the low 30s F. However, steep low and mid-level lapse rates greater than 8 C/km are present. This will allow for an isolated severe threat initially, with potential for more organized storms later this evening. Recent CAM guidance and radar trends suggests an isolated severe threat (35-50 kt gusts and small hail) may persist across the I-25 corridor over the next few hours. Given the potential for outflow interactions, additional storm development also appears likely. This may eventually result in a more coherent cluster of storms across northeastern CO where 40+ kt of deep-layer shear and more buoyancy could support greater storm organization. This may favor a greater risk for severe winds and hail with an organized cluster/MCS. While confidence in initial storm evolution and the resulting severe threat is low, some severe risk is likely present. Severe trends will continue to be monitored for a possible weather watch. ..Lyons/Hart.. 05/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 39100475 39410540 40470509 41050452 41100447 41570268 41480197 41000169 40020173 39590229 39380337 39100475 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z An upper-level trough and associated surface low over the Northern Plains on Day 3/Friday will push through the Great Lakes Region by Day 5/Sunday. An active upper-wave pattern will persist across CONUS with another upper-level trough moving into the Western U.S. by Day 5/Sunday, gradually pushing into the Eastern U.S. through Day 8 where widespread rainfall is expected. Fire weather concerns should remain concentrated across portions of the Southwest where dry fuels and recent active fire activity amid drought conditions have occurred. A broad ridging pattern begins to build across the West by the middle of next week promoting generally light surface winds but above normal temperatures and dry conditions, which will aid in the curing/drying of fuels. ...Southwest... A multi-day fire weather threat will persist across parts of the southwest through early next week. Modest mid-level flow over a well-mixed boundary layer should allow for gusty southwest winds across southeastern Arizona and southern New Mexico on Day 4/Saturday. A mid-level jet max rounding the base of the incoming upper-level trough into the western U.S. should promote at least Elevated if not Critical fire weather conditions across southern New Mexico where dry fuels and drought persist on Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday. 40 percent Critical probabilities were added to reflect higher confidence of fire weather threat. ..Williams.. 05/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z An upper-level trough and associated surface low over the Northern Plains on Day 3/Friday will push through the Great Lakes Region by Day 5/Sunday. An active upper-wave pattern will persist across CONUS with another upper-level trough moving into the Western U.S. by Day 5/Sunday, gradually pushing into the Eastern U.S. through Day 8 where widespread rainfall is expected. Fire weather concerns should remain concentrated across portions of the Southwest where dry fuels and recent active fire activity amid drought conditions have occurred. A broad ridging pattern begins to build across the West by the middle of next week promoting generally light surface winds but above normal temperatures and dry conditions, which will aid in the curing/drying of fuels. ...Southwest... A multi-day fire weather threat will persist across parts of the southwest through early next week. Modest mid-level flow over a well-mixed boundary layer should allow for gusty southwest winds across southeastern Arizona and southern New Mexico on Day 4/Saturday. A mid-level jet max rounding the base of the incoming upper-level trough into the western U.S. should promote at least Elevated if not Critical fire weather conditions across southern New Mexico where dry fuels and drought persist on Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday. 40 percent Critical probabilities were added to reflect higher confidence of fire weather threat. ..Williams.. 05/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0247 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0247 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more