SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the southern Great Plains tonight. ..Southern Great Plains... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a closed upper low over the Desert Southwest. This upper feature will gradually move eastward through daybreak Thursday reaching the Sangre de Cristos. Widespread cloud cover over central/eastern TX into OK will tend to limit diurnal heating today. Southerly low-level flow over south/coastal TX will slowly intensify as a still modifying airmass over the western Gulf of America moves inland into the TX Hill Country. Isolated thunderstorms may develop later this afternoon over northeast TX into AR but weak elevated instability will limit storm intensity. By mid to late evening, prior moistening during the day into the early evening will yield weak instability (250-1000 J/kg MUCAPE) from west-central TX north-northeastward into southern OK. The arrival of stronger large-scale ascent associated with the approaching upper low and Pacific cold front will facilitate the development of showers/thunderstorms from central TX into southern OK. Relatively cool 500-mb temperatures around -16 deg C will support a potential risk for large hail with a few of the stronger updrafts. Convective coverage is forecast to quickly increase during the late evening/overnight timeframe as storms become oriented in a large band. An accompanying risk for isolated strong to locally severe will likely continue through the overnight. A surface-based warm sector may eventually be encountered by storms on the southern portion of the band near the I-35 corridor overnight. A marginal risk for severe gusts and perhaps a tornado could develop with this activity. ..Smith/Kerr.. 01/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the southern Great Plains tonight. ..Southern Great Plains... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a closed upper low over the Desert Southwest. This upper feature will gradually move eastward through daybreak Thursday reaching the Sangre de Cristos. Widespread cloud cover over central/eastern TX into OK will tend to limit diurnal heating today. Southerly low-level flow over south/coastal TX will slowly intensify as a still modifying airmass over the western Gulf of America moves inland into the TX Hill Country. Isolated thunderstorms may develop later this afternoon over northeast TX into AR but weak elevated instability will limit storm intensity. By mid to late evening, prior moistening during the day into the early evening will yield weak instability (250-1000 J/kg MUCAPE) from west-central TX north-northeastward into southern OK. The arrival of stronger large-scale ascent associated with the approaching upper low and Pacific cold front will facilitate the development of showers/thunderstorms from central TX into southern OK. Relatively cool 500-mb temperatures around -16 deg C will support a potential risk for large hail with a few of the stronger updrafts. Convective coverage is forecast to quickly increase during the late evening/overnight timeframe as storms become oriented in a large band. An accompanying risk for isolated strong to locally severe will likely continue through the overnight. A surface-based warm sector may eventually be encountered by storms on the southern portion of the band near the I-35 corridor overnight. A marginal risk for severe gusts and perhaps a tornado could develop with this activity. ..Smith/Kerr.. 01/29/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... As a short-wave trough continues shifting away from the U.S./across the western Atlantic early in the period, flow aloft across the U.S. is progged by medium-range models to gradually trend toward a more zonal configuration. A trough/low is forecast to shift eastward out of the Canadian Rockies and across the Prairie Provinces days 4-5 (this weekend), and then eastward across Ontario, Quebec, and eventually the Maritime Provinces days 5-7 (early next week). In tandem, an associated/deepening surface low will likewise shift gradually eastward across southern Canada. As this occurs, an Arctic cold front will evolve, shifting eastward across the Great Lakes and then the Northeast, while the trailing portion of the boundary sags southward in a more west-to-east orientation, roughly paralleling the zonal flow aloft prevailing by this time over the CONUS. With the zonal flow, and sagging west-to-east front, severe-weather potential appears likely to remain low through the period. While some convection will be possible near/south of the sagging front, minimal northward advection of low-level moisture and weak lapse rates suggest lack of appreciable instability, which it appears at this time should hinder more robust convection through the period. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong/potentially severe storms may occur over parts of the central/eastern Gulf Coast region Friday. ...Synopsis... A closed low over the Missouri vicinity at the start of the period (Friday morning) is expected to devolve into an open wave that will move quickly eastward across the eastern U.S., and into the western Atlantic overnight. At the surface, a low initially over the Illinois/Indiana vicinity will move eastward across the lower Great Lakes region through the day, before redeveloping eastward near the New England Coast/coastal Canadian Maritime Provinces. A trailing cold front will move across the Appalachians and central Gulf Coast states through Friday afternoon, to the East Coast area during the evening, and then offshore into the western Atlantic before midnight. By the end of the period, the weakening/trailing portion of the front should be moving southward across the Florida Peninsula. ...Central Gulf Coast region... Showers and a few thunderstorms -- ongoing at the start of the period -- should accompany the advance of the cold front across the southeastern states Friday. Very weak instability at best is forecast, which should greatly hinder severe potential. Still, with strong/veering flow with height, a stronger storm or two may evolve, particularly from late morning into early afternoon. Strong/gusty winds that may approach severe levels, or even a brief tornado or two, cannot be ruled out before storms weaken/shift east of the area by early evening. ..Goss.. 01/29/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears limited across the country on Thursday, though some concerns may emerge across the Big Bend region of southern Texas depending on fuel trends over the next 48 hours. The upper low currently over the Southwest is expected to eject into the southern Plains through late Thursday. Surface cyclogenesis is expected to become more pronounced Thursday afternoon across the central Plains, resulting in strengthening pressure gradient winds across much of TX. Westerly winds between 15-25 mph will be common, and dry air advection, coupled with deep boundary-layer mixing, will promote RH reductions down to 15-20% across the greater Big Bend region. Recent ensemble guidance shows reasonably high probabilities for sustained elevated fire weather conditions across this region with low to moderate probabilities (30-50%) for critical conditions. While confidence in reasonably high for at least elevated fire weather conditions, fuels across this region are not overly receptive with ERCs generally below the 80th percentile and 10-hour fuel moisture values above the 50th percentile. Fire weather highlights may be needed in future forecast updated if fine fuels can sufficiently dry by Thursday afternoon. ..Moore.. 01/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Strong/isolated severe storms will be possible Thursday from eastern Texas eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A closed upper low initially forecast to lie over the southeastern Colorado area is expected to move steadily eastward Day 2/Thursday, crossing Kansas/Oklahoma and eventually shifting into/across the Ozarks through 31/12Z. At the surface, a very weak surface low expected over northeastern Texas Thursday morning is expected to shift north-northeastward with time, with some deepening of the low expected through latter stages of the period as it moves into the Illinois/Indiana area. Meanwhile, a trailing cold front will sweep across eastern Texas early in the period, across the Lower Mississippi Valley area through the evening, and should lie from Indiana southward across Kentucky and Tennessee, to the mouth of the Mississippi River by the end of the period. ...East Texas to western Mississippi... As the surface cold front shifts eastward through the day, southerly low-level winds within the warm sector will advect partially modified Gulf air northward into southeastern Texas and Louisiana. Weak lapse rates will substantially hinder destabilization, but low-level moistening should be sufficient to allow very weak surface-based CAPE to develop ahead of the advancing front. Elevated showers and storms should be ongoing at the start of the period, moving across the eastern half of Texas. As low-level moistening allows storms to gradually become surface-based, potential for locally damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes will increase. Risk should become maximized through the late afternoon and early evening hours, expanding into/across Louisiana with time. While the meager instability should temper the overall risk, favorably strong low-level and deep-layer shear across the region will exist, with low-level southerly flow increasing and veering substantially with height through the lower half of the troposphere. The main storm mode is expected to be rotating storms embedded within small-scale linear segments, with convection spreading eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley through the evening before weakening overnight. ..Goss.. 01/29/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be limited today across the country, though localized concerns may emerge across the southern High Plains as well as across parts of the Mid-Atlantic. ...Southern High Plains... An upper low over the Southwest will continue to meander east into the southern Plains. While widespread rain is expected to overspread much of the southern Plains, portions of West Texas and far southern NM will likely remain dry while west/southwest winds strengthen through late afternoon. The eastward advection of a dry air mass (currently in place across southern AZ/southwest NM) coupled with some degree of downslope warming/drying will support RH reductions into the low 20s and teens. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible, but modestly receptive fuels (ERCs generally below the 80th percentile) should limit fire concerns. ...Mid-Atlantic... Further east, a strong low migrating across the Northeast will induce 15-20 mph westerly winds along the lee of the southern to central Appalachians. Downslope warming will likely support afternoon RH minimums between 20-30%. Elevated conditions appear likely across central to eastern VA and NC, but as with the southern High Plains, fuels are generally unreceptive. However, very fine (1-hour) fuels may see sufficient drying for localized fire weather concerns this afternoon. ..Moore.. 01/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more