SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 PM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Discussion... Thunderstorm activity has waned beneath the upper low across California and Arizona. A few lightning flashes could persist tonight beneath the upper low, but given the boundary layer has already started to cool, expect any additional lightning to be quite isolated. ..Bentley.. 01/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 PM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Discussion... Thunderstorm activity has waned beneath the upper low across California and Arizona. A few lightning flashes could persist tonight beneath the upper low, but given the boundary layer has already started to cool, expect any additional lightning to be quite isolated. ..Bentley.. 01/29/2025 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 PM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the early part of the extended forecast. An upper-low that has remained over the western US will eject across the southern Rockies into the Plains D2/Wednesday through D3/Thursday, bringing windy conditions but also chances for precipitation across the central/southern Plains. A surface cyclone will develop across the southern Plains D3/Thursday, with strengthening of a lee trough across the High Plains. This pattern will favor a period of elevated fire-weather conditions, particularly across southwestern and western Texas where freeze cured grasses may support risk for fire spread. Elsewhere, marginal fuels and chances for additional precipitation should limit the potential for critical conditions. Zonal flow behind this departing system will favor periods of enhanced westerly flow overspreading the southern Rockies through the weekend, with lee troughing redeveloping D5/Saturday and D6/Sunday. This will bring potential warm/dry downslope flow across portions of western Texas into the Oklahoma Panhandle. Some portion of this region will have seen recent rainfall. However, Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather concerns will be possible across far western Texas where less precipitation was received. For now, confidence is low in highlighting any specific areas. ..Thornton.. 01/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue Jan 28 21:58:01 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Jan 28 21:58:01 UTC 2025.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 PM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. ..Weinman.. 01/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025/ ...Discussion... Split upper-level flow will persist over the CONUS with a slow-moving southern-stream upper low over the Southwest Deserts and northwest Mexico. In the presence of steep lapse rates, a few lightning flashes will be possible across southern California and northern Arizona through around sunset. No thunderstorms are expected elsewhere as cool/stable conditions prevail. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be limited for Wednesday across the country. The upper low currently over western Arizona will shift into the southern Plains through Wednesday evening. Widespread rain chances will overspread the southern Plains and Southwest regions through the day limiting fire weather potential for most areas. One exception is West Texas and south-central NM where rainfall should be limited. While breezy southwest winds are likely, recent guidance suggests the probability of reaching elevated RH thresholds is low. Elsewhere across the country, cool temperatures, weak winds, and/or recent rain/snowfall preclude fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO PARTS OF LOUISIANA AND FAR SOUTHWEST MS... ...SUMMARY... Strong/isolated severe storms will be possible Thursday from eastern Texas eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...East TX to the Lower MS Valley... Convection will be ongoing Thursday morning in a low-level warm advection regime ahead of an approaching upper low/trough and attendant surface front. Southerly low-level flow will allow Gulf moisture to advance northward ahead of the surface front from east TX into MS. Low to mid 60s F dewpoints will largely remain near/south of the I-20 corridor, with better quality dewpoints remaining closer to the coast. The corridor of relatively higher dewpoints will also become increasingly narrow/pinched off with north and east extent after 00z. Furthermore, forecast soundings show lackluster midlevel lapse rates with eastward extent. This should result in a fairly confined area of elevated instability sufficient to support organized convection amid strong vertical shear. As such, severe potential is expected to quickly decrease with eastward extent during the nighttime hours. Nevertheless, strong storms are expected to persist along the eastward-advancing surface front through the day across east TX. By late afternoon into early evening, a low-level jet will increase as convection encounters a somewhat more moist boundary layer across LA. This may result in a brief increase in severe potential across portions of LA and adjacent MS when a period of favorable shear overlaps with better instability/quality dew points. Convection will likely remain elevated regardless, but strong to severe gusts are possible, in addition to a few instances of hail. While poor low-level lapse rates and limited surface-based instability will temper the tornado risk, low-level hodographs will become enlarged and curved with the increasing low-level jet around 00z. If low-level thermodynamics evolve more favorably than forecast guidance suggests, a tornado or two may be possible. ..Leitman.. 01/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/possibly severe storms will be possible across parts of the southern Plains Wednesday evening/overnight. ...Southern Plains... A southwest flow/warm advection regime is forecast across the southern Plains on Wednesday, ahead of an upper low/trough migrating east across the Four Corners and southern Rockies. East/southeasterly low-level flow across the western Gulf and southern Plains will transport 60s F dewpoints northward into portions of central and north TX. Surface cyclogenesis is not expected to be particularly strong, but a Pacific front is forecast to sharpen and shift east into central to north TX overnight. Midlevel lapse rates are forecast to steepen overnight in conjunction with a strengthening southerly low-level jet. This will aid in modest destabilization, with MLCAPE values to around 500-750 J/kg evident in forecast guidance. Favorable vertical shear, with effective shear magnitudes greater then 35 kt, and straight/elongated hodographs above 2 km suggest organized, elevated thunderstorms are possible. Strong low-level inhibition due to poor low-level lapse rates and a cool nocturnal boundary layer will preclude surface-based instability/convection. Nevertheless, conditions will be favorable for isolated hail with strongest thunderstorm cores. Some forecast soundings suggest low-level inhibition may be somewhat less across eastern portions of the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) area near the very end of the period. While the risk of surface-based convection is conditional across this area, if a storm can become so, enlarged/curved low-level hodographs and favorable low-level shear suggest some risk for a tornado and/or strong wind gusts could materialize. Given the conditional/low-end nature of the risk during the last 1-3 hours of the forecast period, will maintain the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5). ..Leitman.. 01/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/possibly severe storms will be possible across parts of the southern Plains Wednesday evening/overnight. ...Southern Plains... A southwest flow/warm advection regime is forecast across the southern Plains on Wednesday, ahead of an upper low/trough migrating east across the Four Corners and southern Rockies. East/southeasterly low-level flow across the western Gulf and southern Plains will transport 60s F dewpoints northward into portions of central and north TX. Surface cyclogenesis is not expected to be particularly strong, but a Pacific front is forecast to sharpen and shift east into central to north TX overnight. Midlevel lapse rates are forecast to steepen overnight in conjunction with a strengthening southerly low-level jet. This will aid in modest destabilization, with MLCAPE values to around 500-750 J/kg evident in forecast guidance. Favorable vertical shear, with effective shear magnitudes greater then 35 kt, and straight/elongated hodographs above 2 km suggest organized, elevated thunderstorms are possible. Strong low-level inhibition due to poor low-level lapse rates and a cool nocturnal boundary layer will preclude surface-based instability/convection. Nevertheless, conditions will be favorable for isolated hail with strongest thunderstorm cores. Some forecast soundings suggest low-level inhibition may be somewhat less across eastern portions of the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) area near the very end of the period. While the risk of surface-based convection is conditional across this area, if a storm can become so, enlarged/curved low-level hodographs and favorable low-level shear suggest some risk for a tornado and/or strong wind gusts could materialize. Given the conditional/low-end nature of the risk during the last 1-3 hours of the forecast period, will maintain the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5). ..Leitman.. 01/28/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1055 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0107 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns appear limited for today across the country, though localized elevated conditions may emerge across parts of the central Plains and southwest New Mexico. Early-morning water vapor imagery depicts a de-amplifying upper low over western AZ. This feature is expected to meander east through the day, resulting in modest surface pressure falls across western NM and maintaining 30-40 knot mid-level winds over the region. While pressure gradient winds are expected to be modest (10-15 mph) diurnal heating of a very dry low-level air mass (well sampled by the 00 UTC EPZ sounding) will support deep mixing and downward momentum transfer of the stronger mid-level winds, manifesting as 20-30 mph gusts at the surface. With afternoon RH minimums in the teens expected again for today, localized elevated fire weather conditions may emerge across southwest NM where these stronger gusts are most likely to occur based on recent ensemble guidance. Across the Plains, a clipper low moving southeastward out of the Canadian Prairies will maintain a moderate pressure gradient over the central to northern Plains. Winds between 15-20 mph are expected, with some RH reductions into the 20-35% range possible as a dry air mass (currently upstream over the High Plains) overspreads the region. Confidence in sustained/widespread elevated conditions remains limited, and fuels remain only modestly dry. These concerns preclude highlights at this time, but localized elevated conditions are possible across portions of NE and SD. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Discussion... Split upper-level flow will persist over the CONUS with a slow-moving southern-stream upper low over the Southwest Deserts and northwest Mexico. In the presence of steep lapse rates, a few lightning flashes will be possible across southern California and northern Arizona through around sunset. No thunderstorms are expected elsewhere as cool/stable conditions prevail. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 01/28/2025 Read more

MD 0056 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR THE UPPER MICHIGAN VICINITY
Mesoscale Discussion 0056 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0633 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Areas affected...the Upper Michigan vicinity Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 281233Z - 281700Z SUMMARY...A period of heavy snow, at rates on the order of 1-2+ inches per hour, appears possible in a corridor overspreading the central Upper Peninsula of Michigan vicinity by midday. DISCUSSION...Downstream of a low-amplitude short wave perturbation, accompanying an intense (110+ kt at 500 mb) jet streak digging east-southeast of the Canadian Prairies, lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection is overspreading the Upper Midwest into Great Lakes region. Associated forcing for ascent is becoming focused across the southwestern flank of an arctic air mass now entrenched across much of the Great Lakes region, particularly near a zone of strong lower/mid-tropospheric frontogenesis, which is forecast to shift from northwestern Ontario across the western Lake Superior and central Upper Peninsula of Michigan vicinity through 17-18z. Forecast soundings across this region indicate that the sub-freezing thermodynamic profiles are in the process of saturating, ahead of an ongoing band of moderate to heavy snow, which appears likely to be maintained through at least early afternoon. Temperatures appear within a few degrees of -15C through an initially deep layer from lower-levels into the 700-600 mb layer, where conditions will be most conducive to large dendritic ice crystal growth. Coinciding with maximizing lift associated with the frontogenetic forcing, it appears that this may support a 2-3 hour period of heavy snow rates on the order of 1-2 inches per hour. Forecast soundings also indicate that a layer a steepening mid-level lapse rates may be accompanied by the development of weak CAPE and embedded convective development with heavier snow rates possible. ..Kerr.. 01/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB...DLH... LAT...LON 48538911 47918791 46888619 46278519 45418590 44838674 45668731 46428796 46938875 47878969 48538911 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0637 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery loop indicates a split flow upper-air pattern over North America with a closed mid- to upper-level low meandering over the Desert Southwest. A few showers associated with the upper low may become convectively augmented and yield a couple of lightning flashes. Otherwise, docile conditions will prevail across the remainder of the Lower 48 from a thunderstorm perspective. Deep, cyclonic flow will encompass the Upper Midwest southeastward into the Appalachians/Eastern Seaboard and maintain seasonably cool/stable air via continental trajectories. ..Smith/Kerr.. 01/28/2025 Read more