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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible from the Upper Mississippi Valley to the Great Lakes, and from the central Rockies to the lower Missouri Valley through tonight. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...20z Update... The prior forecast remains valid with only minimal changes to the western edge of the Thunder area. Isolated thunderstorms ongoing over parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes should spread eastward through tonight. Additional elevated thunderstorms will remain possible across the OH Valley and Midwest as the low-level jet increases overnight. Given limited moisture, instability is forecast to remain too weak to support a severe threat. See the previous discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 04/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward from the northern High Plains to the Upper Midwest by late tonight, as a surface low develops northeastward from eastern NE/KS to the upper Great Lakes. Limited low-level moisture return will continue through the period within the warm sector of this cyclone. But, sufficient ascent/saturation will likely remain confined to near the IA/MN border this afternoon, where elevated thunderstorms are ongoing. Some small hail may occur with this activity. This elevated convection is expected to spread eastward over WI and parts of Lower MI through the late evening. Farther west, isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into early evening along a southward-moving cold front across CO, and overnight into MO where moistening and weak ascent atop the front (near/above 700 mb) could support elevated convection by 09-12z. Across all these areas, instability is forecast to remain too weak to support organized severe thunderstorms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible from the Upper Mississippi Valley to the Great Lakes, and from the central Rockies to the lower Missouri Valley through tonight. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...20z Update... The prior forecast remains valid with only minimal changes to the western edge of the Thunder area. Isolated thunderstorms ongoing over parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes should spread eastward through tonight. Additional elevated thunderstorms will remain possible across the OH Valley and Midwest as the low-level jet increases overnight. Given limited moisture, instability is forecast to remain too weak to support a severe threat. See the previous discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 04/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward from the northern High Plains to the Upper Midwest by late tonight, as a surface low develops northeastward from eastern NE/KS to the upper Great Lakes. Limited low-level moisture return will continue through the period within the warm sector of this cyclone. But, sufficient ascent/saturation will likely remain confined to near the IA/MN border this afternoon, where elevated thunderstorms are ongoing. Some small hail may occur with this activity. This elevated convection is expected to spread eastward over WI and parts of Lower MI through the late evening. Farther west, isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into early evening along a southward-moving cold front across CO, and overnight into MO where moistening and weak ascent atop the front (near/above 700 mb) could support elevated convection by 09-12z. Across all these areas, instability is forecast to remain too weak to support organized severe thunderstorms. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z In this morning's 12Z guidance, a drying trend was noted across portions of eastern Nebraska, bringing expected RH into the 20-25% range. Also, fuels in this region have not yet greened up and are therefore still relatively dry. Therefore, have brought the Elevated fire highlight eastward towards the Missouri River. Additionally, strong winds (gusts to 25-30 mph) may occur across portions of South Carolina tomorrow afternoon. However, RH is currently expected to be a bit too high to support an Elevated fire risk, likely 30-35%, though brief, localized areas of 25-30% RH are possible. Furthermore, fuels are probably not receptive to fire spread, given recent rainfall. Therefore, have not introduced any highlights on this outlook. Beyond these two areas, the forecast is on track. See the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 04/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025/ ...Synopsis... The Upper Midwest upper trough will broaden and intensify as it moves eastward into the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic on Monday. A cold front will continue south and east, pushing into the northern Gulf. Strong post-frontal winds at the surface and aloft will continue on the western flank of the upper trough. ...Southwest South Dakota into central Kansas... Strong northwesterly winds will persist across much of the Plains during the morning and early afternoon. Winds just above the surface will also maintain some intensity into the afternoon, promoting stronger gusts as well. Sustained winds of 15-20 mph appear most probable. Winds will tend to gradually weaken mid/late afternoon as surface low moves farther east and the surface high weakens to the west. RH of 20-30% will occur, with the lowest values expected farther south and west. There has been some tendency for guidance to shift the area of elevated fire weather risk farther south/west. The elevated area has been shifted accordingly. Strong winds will still occur near the Missouri River, but RH is expected to be much higher. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z In this morning's 12Z guidance, a drying trend was noted across portions of eastern Nebraska, bringing expected RH into the 20-25% range. Also, fuels in this region have not yet greened up and are therefore still relatively dry. Therefore, have brought the Elevated fire highlight eastward towards the Missouri River. Additionally, strong winds (gusts to 25-30 mph) may occur across portions of South Carolina tomorrow afternoon. However, RH is currently expected to be a bit too high to support an Elevated fire risk, likely 30-35%, though brief, localized areas of 25-30% RH are possible. Furthermore, fuels are probably not receptive to fire spread, given recent rainfall. Therefore, have not introduced any highlights on this outlook. Beyond these two areas, the forecast is on track. See the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 04/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025/ ...Synopsis... The Upper Midwest upper trough will broaden and intensify as it moves eastward into the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic on Monday. A cold front will continue south and east, pushing into the northern Gulf. Strong post-frontal winds at the surface and aloft will continue on the western flank of the upper trough. ...Southwest South Dakota into central Kansas... Strong northwesterly winds will persist across much of the Plains during the morning and early afternoon. Winds just above the surface will also maintain some intensity into the afternoon, promoting stronger gusts as well. Sustained winds of 15-20 mph appear most probable. Winds will tend to gradually weaken mid/late afternoon as surface low moves farther east and the surface high weakens to the west. RH of 20-30% will occur, with the lowest values expected farther south and west. There has been some tendency for guidance to shift the area of elevated fire weather risk farther south/west. The elevated area has been shifted accordingly. Strong winds will still occur near the Missouri River, but RH is expected to be much higher. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will move rapidly eastward from the Great Lakes and OH Valley into the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, with a surface high pushing into the lower MS Valley and Southeast. The drying behind this system will significantly reduce thunderstorm chances over much of the CONUS on Tuesday. A very low chance of early day convection may exist over far eastern NC, and over eastern New England as elevated moisture wraps northwestward toward the low. Elsewhere, isolated general thunderstorms may occur during the afternoon over the Sierra, and into parts of western CO in association with midlevel moisture and cool temperatures aloft. ..Jewell.. 04/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1208 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY AND OHIO INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible Monday from mid-afternoon to mid-evening across parts of the Upper Ohio Valley and central Appalachians. ...Ohio Valley into the Mid Atlantic... An upper low will deepen from Lake Superior into eastern Ontario on Monday, with an amplifying upper trough from the northern Plains into the OH Valley late. At the surface, a cold front will extend south from the Ontario low, affecting OH and KY prior to 00Z. A narrow zone of mid to upper 50s F dewpoints will spread northeastward ahead of the front, with pockets of heating. This will lead to 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE from KY into WV, with lower values northward across OH and into western PA. Gradual height falls along with increasing midlevel moisture will overspread the diurnally prepared boundary layer over KY, southern OH and WV, with scattered strong to severe storms developing by late afternoon. Strong deep-layer shear will favor cellular activity, with a couple supercells possible. Despite the primarily veered/westerly flow, any rightward propagation off the hodograph will result in favorable SRH, possibly supporting a brief tornado. Otherwise, hail is expected with the stronger cores, with localized wind damage. ..Jewell.. 04/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1208 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY AND OHIO INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible Monday from mid-afternoon to mid-evening across parts of the Upper Ohio Valley and central Appalachians. ...Ohio Valley into the Mid Atlantic... An upper low will deepen from Lake Superior into eastern Ontario on Monday, with an amplifying upper trough from the northern Plains into the OH Valley late. At the surface, a cold front will extend south from the Ontario low, affecting OH and KY prior to 00Z. A narrow zone of mid to upper 50s F dewpoints will spread northeastward ahead of the front, with pockets of heating. This will lead to 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE from KY into WV, with lower values northward across OH and into western PA. Gradual height falls along with increasing midlevel moisture will overspread the diurnally prepared boundary layer over KY, southern OH and WV, with scattered strong to severe storms developing by late afternoon. Strong deep-layer shear will favor cellular activity, with a couple supercells possible. Despite the primarily veered/westerly flow, any rightward propagation off the hodograph will result in favorable SRH, possibly supporting a brief tornado. Otherwise, hail is expected with the stronger cores, with localized wind damage. ..Jewell.. 04/13/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... Some mid-level clouds are apparent on satellite imagery this morning associated with a jet streak around the southern periphery of the northern Plains trough. These may somewhat mute the fire weather threat over portions of the Texas Panhandle today due to reduced surface temperatures and reduced mixing, especially when combined with onset of the spring green up in the eastern portions of the Texas Panhandle. As such, have slightly trimmed the Critical area in this region. Otherwise, the forecast appears to be on track. See the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 04/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025/ ...Synopsis... A northern Plains upper trough will move into the Upper Midwest today. A surface trough/cold front will move south and east. Deepening surface lows are expected in the Upper Midwest as well as the southern High Plains. ...Southwest into Southern Plains... As the trough moves north of the area, some extension of moderate mid-level wind will be present across the southern Rockies. A lee surface low is forecast to develop in the Texas Panhandle. These features will combine to promote surface winds around 20 mph over a broad area. RH could be very low in some places (5-10%), though 10-20% will be more common. Critical fire weather will occur for a several hours across parts of the Southwest into West Texas. ...South Dakota/Nebraska... Strong, gusty surface winds are expected behind the cold front. Winds of 15-25 mph appear possible. Cooling behind the front should lag in part due to a downslope component of the wind off the High Plains and mid-level drying allowing surface heating to occur. This should allow RH to fall to 15-25%. Drought impacted grasses will promote an elevated risk of fire ignition/spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... Some mid-level clouds are apparent on satellite imagery this morning associated with a jet streak around the southern periphery of the northern Plains trough. These may somewhat mute the fire weather threat over portions of the Texas Panhandle today due to reduced surface temperatures and reduced mixing, especially when combined with onset of the spring green up in the eastern portions of the Texas Panhandle. As such, have slightly trimmed the Critical area in this region. Otherwise, the forecast appears to be on track. See the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 04/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025/ ...Synopsis... A northern Plains upper trough will move into the Upper Midwest today. A surface trough/cold front will move south and east. Deepening surface lows are expected in the Upper Midwest as well as the southern High Plains. ...Southwest into Southern Plains... As the trough moves north of the area, some extension of moderate mid-level wind will be present across the southern Rockies. A lee surface low is forecast to develop in the Texas Panhandle. These features will combine to promote surface winds around 20 mph over a broad area. RH could be very low in some places (5-10%), though 10-20% will be more common. Critical fire weather will occur for a several hours across parts of the Southwest into West Texas. ...South Dakota/Nebraska... Strong, gusty surface winds are expected behind the cold front. Winds of 15-25 mph appear possible. Cooling behind the front should lag in part due to a downslope component of the wind off the High Plains and mid-level drying allowing surface heating to occur. This should allow RH to fall to 15-25%. Drought impacted grasses will promote an elevated risk of fire ignition/spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible from the Upper Mississippi Valley to the Great Lakes, and from the central Rockies to the lower Missouri Valley through tonight. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward from the northern High Plains to the Upper Midwest by late tonight, as a surface low develops northeastward from eastern NE/KS to the upper Great Lakes. Limited low-level moisture return will continue through the period within the warm sector of this cyclone. But, sufficient ascent/saturation will likely remain confined to near the IA/MN border this afternoon, where elevated thunderstorms are ongoing. Some small hail may occur with this activity. This elevated convection is expected to spread eastward over WI and parts of Lower MI through the late evening. Farther west, isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into early evening along a southward-moving cold front across CO, and overnight into MO where moistening and weak ascent atop the front (near/above 700 mb) could support elevated convection by 09-12z. Across all these areas, instability is forecast to remain too weak to support organized severe thunderstorms. ..Gleason/Weinman.. 04/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible from the Upper Mississippi Valley to the Great Lakes, and from the central Rockies to the lower Missouri Valley through tonight. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward from the northern High Plains to the Upper Midwest by late tonight, as a surface low develops northeastward from eastern NE/KS to the upper Great Lakes. Limited low-level moisture return will continue through the period within the warm sector of this cyclone. But, sufficient ascent/saturation will likely remain confined to near the IA/MN border this afternoon, where elevated thunderstorms are ongoing. Some small hail may occur with this activity. This elevated convection is expected to spread eastward over WI and parts of Lower MI through the late evening. Farther west, isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into early evening along a southward-moving cold front across CO, and overnight into MO where moistening and weak ascent atop the front (near/above 700 mb) could support elevated convection by 09-12z. Across all these areas, instability is forecast to remain too weak to support organized severe thunderstorms. ..Gleason/Weinman.. 04/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development will be possible from the Upper Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes, and from the central Rockies to the lower Missouri Valley. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough will move eastward from the northern High Plains to the Upper MS Valley by early Monday, as a remnant lee cyclone develops northeastward from eastern NE to Lake Superior. Limited low-level moisture return is underway within the warm sector of the cyclone, though sufficient ascent/saturation is not occurring until near the IA/MN border where elevated thunderstorms may develop later this morning. This elevated convection will then spread eastward over WI through the day and Lower MI by late evening. Otherwise, isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into early tonight along a southward-moving cold front across CO, and overnight into MO where moistening and weak ascent atop the frontal surface (near 700 mb) could support elevated convection 09-12z. ..Thompson/Dean.. 04/13/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... An active severe weather pattern is expected late week into next weekend. ...D5/Thursday... Guidance has converged to a signal of severe-storm threat centered on Thursday evening as a deep surface cyclone becomes established in the KS vicinity, downstream of a longwave trough in the West. An enriching low-level moisture plume will be advected nearly due north from the western Gulf towards the Lower MO Valley. A stout EML should limit convective development along much of the dryline. But a strengthening low-level jet should support thunderstorm development to the northeast of the surface low amid strong deep-layer shear. ...D6/Friday... A rather broad swath of 50+ kt 500-mb southwesterlies appears likely to become established from the southern High Plains to the Great Lakes, downstream of a broad trough in the Southwest and a separate northern-stream wave around northern ON. While the deep cyclone over the KS vicinity will weaken, it should track towards the central Great Lakes in response to the northern wave. Along its trailing cold front, extensive thunderstorm development is anticipated Friday afternoon/evening. Given the aforementioned strong mid-level flow regime, a broad corridor of severe threat is warranted. ...D7-8/Saturday-Sunday... Predictability for a 15 percent highlight wanes somewhat next weekend, but areas will probably be needed in later outlooks. Saturday may consist of confined, bimodal threat areas across the Lower Mid-Atlantic States and southern High/Great Plains. For the former, the degree of instability and position of a southeast-moving cold front on the periphery of a fast zonal flow regime are the main uncertainty drivers. For the latter, timing of the pivot and eastward ejection of the Lower CO Valley shortwave impulse into the south-central states will be critical. Based on latest guidance, it appears Sunday could have a broader corridor of severe potential. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday. ...Eastern NC... Timing of surface cold front passage Tuesday late morning to afternoon remains crucial as to whether thunderstorms can form and intensify over land, before becoming entirely confined off the coast. Guidance, except for the UKMET, has generally been trending towards a slightly faster frontal passage over the past couple days. This suggests the window of opportunity for sustained severe development should be rather limited. Conditionally, strong wind profiles support potential for an organized storm or two around early afternoon. For now, have opted to defer on possible level 1-MRGL risk. ...Southwest... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible downstream of a low-amplitude shortwave impulse moving northeast from the Lower CO Valley, and a separate trough off the CA coast. Meager buoyancy and weak deep-layer shear will minimize severe potential. ..Grams.. 04/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday. ...Eastern NC... Timing of surface cold front passage Tuesday late morning to afternoon remains crucial as to whether thunderstorms can form and intensify over land, before becoming entirely confined off the coast. Guidance, except for the UKMET, has generally been trending towards a slightly faster frontal passage over the past couple days. This suggests the window of opportunity for sustained severe development should be rather limited. Conditionally, strong wind profiles support potential for an organized storm or two around early afternoon. For now, have opted to defer on possible level 1-MRGL risk. ...Southwest... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible downstream of a low-amplitude shortwave impulse moving northeast from the Lower CO Valley, and a separate trough off the CA coast. Meager buoyancy and weak deep-layer shear will minimize severe potential. ..Grams.. 04/13/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... The Upper Midwest upper trough will broaden and intensify as it moves eastward into the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic on Monday. A cold front will continue south and east, pushing into the northern Gulf. Strong post-frontal winds at the surface and aloft will continue on the western flank of the upper trough. ...Southwest South Dakota into central Kansas... Strong northwesterly winds will persist across much of the Plains during the morning and early afternoon. Winds just above the surface will also maintain some intensity into the afternoon, promoting stronger gusts as well. Sustained winds of 15-20 mph appear most probable. Winds will tend to gradually weaken mid/late afternoon as surface low moves farther east and the surface high weakens to the west. RH of 20-30% will occur, with the lowest values expected farther south and west. There has been some tendency for guidance to shift the area of elevated fire weather risk farther south/west. The elevated area has been shifted accordingly. Strong winds will still occur near the Missouri River, but RH is expected to be much higher. ..Wendt.. 04/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... The Upper Midwest upper trough will broaden and intensify as it moves eastward into the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic on Monday. A cold front will continue south and east, pushing into the northern Gulf. Strong post-frontal winds at the surface and aloft will continue on the western flank of the upper trough. ...Southwest South Dakota into central Kansas... Strong northwesterly winds will persist across much of the Plains during the morning and early afternoon. Winds just above the surface will also maintain some intensity into the afternoon, promoting stronger gusts as well. Sustained winds of 15-20 mph appear most probable. Winds will tend to gradually weaken mid/late afternoon as surface low moves farther east and the surface high weakens to the west. RH of 20-30% will occur, with the lowest values expected farther south and west. There has been some tendency for guidance to shift the area of elevated fire weather risk farther south/west. The elevated area has been shifted accordingly. Strong winds will still occur near the Missouri River, but RH is expected to be much higher. ..Wendt.. 04/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A northern Plains upper trough will move into the Upper Midwest today. A surface trough/cold front will move south and east. Deepening surface lows are expected in the Upper Midwest as well as the southern High Plains. ...Southwest into Southern Plains... As the trough moves north of the area, some extension of moderate mid-level wind will be present across the southern Rockies. A lee surface low is forecast to develop in the Texas Panhandle. These features will combine to promote surface winds around 20 mph over a broad area. RH could be very low in some places (5-10%), though 10-20% will be more common. Critical fire weather will occur for a several hours across parts of the Southwest into West Texas. ...South Dakota/Nebraska... Strong, gusty surface winds are expected behind the cold front. Winds of 15-25 mph appear possible. Cooling behind the front should lag in part due to a downslope component of the wind off the High Plains and mid-level drying allowing surface heating to occur. This should allow RH to fall to 15-25%. Drought impacted grasses will promote an elevated risk of fire ignition/spread. ..Wendt.. 04/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A northern Plains upper trough will move into the Upper Midwest today. A surface trough/cold front will move south and east. Deepening surface lows are expected in the Upper Midwest as well as the southern High Plains. ...Southwest into Southern Plains... As the trough moves north of the area, some extension of moderate mid-level wind will be present across the southern Rockies. A lee surface low is forecast to develop in the Texas Panhandle. These features will combine to promote surface winds around 20 mph over a broad area. RH could be very low in some places (5-10%), though 10-20% will be more common. Critical fire weather will occur for a several hours across parts of the Southwest into West Texas. ...South Dakota/Nebraska... Strong, gusty surface winds are expected behind the cold front. Winds of 15-25 mph appear possible. Cooling behind the front should lag in part due to a downslope component of the wind off the High Plains and mid-level drying allowing surface heating to occur. This should allow RH to fall to 15-25%. Drought impacted grasses will promote an elevated risk of fire ignition/spread. ..Wendt.. 04/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more