SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN ARIZONA INTO NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... Latest model guidance and surface observations supported an eastward expansion of Elevated highlights farther into Nebraska. Minimal boundary layer moisture and persistent westerly flow will keep relative humidity rather low (10-20% range) through the day coupled with breezy west winds, supporting Elevated fire weather conditions across southeastern Wyoming and western Nebraska. Otherwise, forecast remains on track across the Southwest and adjacent southern High Plains with a broad area of Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns in place. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will evolve from an upper low off the southern California coast today. This will drive increasing mid-level winds across much of the Southwest. East of the Divide, surface lee troughing will increase through the day. ...Eastern Arizona into New Mexico into southern High Plains... The strongest mid-level winds will not arrive until the evening, but moderate flow will be ongoing during the afternoon. Coupled with the lee trough to the east, 15-25 mph winds are possible across a broad portion of the Southwest into the southern High Plains. The strongest winds are expected in eastern Arizona and New Mexico. RH of 10-15% (locally 5-10%) in these areas will promote a critical fire weather threat. ...Central High Plains... With an extension of the lee trough into western Nebraska and eastern Wyoming, a zone of 15-20 mph downslope winds will develop during the afternoon. RH of 10-20% appears possible. Elevated fire weather is expected this afternoon. ...Mid-Missouri Valley... Southerly/southeasterly winds will reach 15-20 mph during the late morning to mid-afternoon. Model variance in terms of the RH during the afternoon is large. This is likely due to uncertainty in the amount of surface heating with mid/upper-level clouds in the region. Fuels will at least support a locally elevated fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TO NORTHEAST KANSAS AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and strong-severe outflow gusts are possible this evening into tonight from parts of the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. ...TX Panhandle to northeast KS and vicinity through tonight... Upper ridging that currently extends from the southern Plains into eastern Manitoba/northwest Ontario is forecast to shift eastward throughout the period. This eastward shift will occur as a shortwave trough drops south-southeastward through the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies, phasing with the upper low off the southern/central CA Coast as it does. This evolution will result in strengthening southwesterly flow aloft from the Southwest into the central Plains, which in turn will foster a deepening lee surface trough across the High Plains and eventual surface cyclogenesis over the central High Plains. Moisture return will also increase across the southern Plains, with upper 50s/low 60s dewpoints likely across much of OK by this evening. Some thunderstorm development could occur during the late afternoon/early evening where the western edge of this moisture interacts with a dryline that extends south from the developing central High Plains surface low. Convergence along this boundary will be modest and convective initiation remains uncertain given the warm mid-level temperatures and resultant capping. Even so, an isolated storm or two appears possible from southwest KS into the eastern TX Panhandle. Strong mid-level flow (and resulting long hodographs) support a supercellular storm mode with any convection that is also to deepen and persist. Large hail and damaging gusts would be possible with any supercells. Higher thunderstorm coverage is anticipated later tonight as the surface low and any afternoon storms move eastward across southwest/south-central KS into the greater low-level moisture, and a strengthening low-level jet fosters increased warm-air advection. Hail will likely be the primary risk with these storms, but the dry subcloud layer in place could still support a few gusts to the surface as well. Overall severe coverage is still expected to remain low enough to keep 5%/Marginal probabilities. ..Mosier/Weinman.. 04/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TO NORTHEAST KANSAS AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and strong-severe outflow gusts are possible this evening into tonight from parts of the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. ...TX Panhandle to northeast KS and vicinity through tonight... Midlevel ridging will shift slowly eastward from the Great Plains to the MS Valley by tonight, as a midlevel trough digs southward toward the northern Great Basin and begins to phase with a closed low off the CA coast. This pattern will favor west-southwesterly flow over the Rockies and lee cyclogenesis across the central High Plains. Northward advection of a modifying Gulf air mass will occur from TX to KS, beneath an elevated mixed layer. Thunderstorm development will become possible late this afternoon/evening from the TX Panhandle into southwest KS, where surface heating and sufficiently deep mixing occur along the developing dryline. MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and long hodographs will favor high-based supercells capable of producing isolated large hail and strong-severe outflow gusts. Confidence in diurnal storm development is modest, but storms that form (especially across KS) could persist/spread eastward overnight with a strengthening low-level jet and associated warm advection. ..Thompson/Dean.. 04/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TO NORTHEAST KANSAS AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and strong-severe outflow gusts are possible this evening into tonight from parts of the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. ...TX Panhandle to northeast KS and vicinity through tonight... Midlevel ridging will shift slowly eastward from the Great Plains to the MS Valley by tonight, as a midlevel trough digs southward toward the northern Great Basin and begins to phase with a closed low off the CA coast. This pattern will favor west-southwesterly flow over the Rockies and lee cyclogenesis across the central High Plains. Northward advection of a modifying Gulf air mass will occur from TX to KS, beneath an elevated mixed layer. Thunderstorm development will become possible late this afternoon/evening from the TX Panhandle into southwest KS, where surface heating and sufficiently deep mixing occur along the developing dryline. MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and long hodographs will favor high-based supercells capable of producing isolated large hail and strong-severe outflow gusts. Confidence in diurnal storm development is modest, but storms that form (especially across KS) could persist/spread eastward overnight with a strengthening low-level jet and associated warm advection. ..Thompson/Dean.. 04/16/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential remains apparent into the weekend, but predictability wanes substantially by D5/Sunday. ...D4/Saturday... The persistent longwave trough is expected to breakdown as an embedded northern-stream shortwave impulse accelerates east across ON/QC and the basal shortwave impulse moves more gradually east into the southern High Plains. Through Saturday afternoon, an expansive swath of strong mid-level flow will persist from the central Appalachians southwestward into the southern Great Plains. The nearly stalled baroclinic zone from TX/OK into the Lower OH Valley will likely be modulated by ongoing convection on Saturday morning. But with appreciable boundary-layer heating of a seasonably moist air mass to the south-southeast, scattered severe storms are plausible from the Upper OH Valley through central TX. ...D5/Sunday... The 00Z GFS and related GEFS are substantially different relative to 24 hours ago with the evolution of the compact shortwave trough ejecting across the southern Great Plains and the attendant synoptic cyclone. Most other guidance has remained relatively consistent to prior days with probable cyclogenesis from OK to the Lower MO Valley. This would result in a confined belt of strong mid-level southwesterlies overlapping a broad warm sector with rich western Gulf moisture. Potentially extensive convection in parts of OK/TX on Sunday morning does complicate exactly how far north-northwest appreciable destabilization may occur into the Ozarks/Lower MO Valley and beyond. Overall setup outside of the GFS-based guidance appears to support scattered severe storms across the South-Central States on Sunday afternoon/evening. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential remains apparent into the weekend, but predictability wanes substantially by D5/Sunday. ...D4/Saturday... The persistent longwave trough is expected to breakdown as an embedded northern-stream shortwave impulse accelerates east across ON/QC and the basal shortwave impulse moves more gradually east into the southern High Plains. Through Saturday afternoon, an expansive swath of strong mid-level flow will persist from the central Appalachians southwestward into the southern Great Plains. The nearly stalled baroclinic zone from TX/OK into the Lower OH Valley will likely be modulated by ongoing convection on Saturday morning. But with appreciable boundary-layer heating of a seasonably moist air mass to the south-southeast, scattered severe storms are plausible from the Upper OH Valley through central TX. ...D5/Sunday... The 00Z GFS and related GEFS are substantially different relative to 24 hours ago with the evolution of the compact shortwave trough ejecting across the southern Great Plains and the attendant synoptic cyclone. Most other guidance has remained relatively consistent to prior days with probable cyclogenesis from OK to the Lower MO Valley. This would result in a confined belt of strong mid-level southwesterlies overlapping a broad warm sector with rich western Gulf moisture. Potentially extensive convection in parts of OK/TX on Sunday morning does complicate exactly how far north-northwest appreciable destabilization may occur into the Ozarks/Lower MO Valley and beyond. Overall setup outside of the GFS-based guidance appears to support scattered severe storms across the South-Central States on Sunday afternoon/evening. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the central Great Lakes to the southern Great Plains, mainly during the late afternoon Friday into Friday night. ...Central Great Lakes to the Southern Great Plains... Overall forecast scenario remains consistent to prior days with an expansive swath of strong mid-level southwesterlies, downstream of a longwave trough from northern ON to the Southwest. This will overlap a similarly oriented surface front, with a cyclone tracking across the central Great Lakes portion of the baroclinic zone during the day and a separate low anchored over the southern High Plains. Mid-level height change appears largely neutral during the first half of the period, with weak height falls Friday night. A corridor of elevated thunderstorms across the far northern portion of the outlook area may be ongoing Friday morning. These could pose a risk of severe hail downstream through the day. With a pronounced EML across much of the warm sector, storm development may be delayed until late afternoon to early evening. Guidance also hints at mid to upper-level cloud coverage curtailing boundary-layer heating and weakening lapse rates aloft across the southern Great Plains, along with pockets of more shallow boundary-layer moisture near the dryline. Latest trends are for storm development generally along and to the cool side of the stalled to slowing surface front from OK to the Mid-MS Valley on Friday evening. Increasing storm coverage is anticipated Friday night northeastward into the central Great Lakes and southward in TX. Convection may predominately organize into clusters in this setup, with strong deep-layer shear supporting a mix of scattered large hail and damaging winds. ..Grams.. 04/16/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue its slow progression eastward on Thursday. Mid-level winds will increase and peak during the afternoon in New Mexico. A deep surface low will develop in eastern Colorado into western Kansas. A cold front will move southward into the central Plains by late afternoon. ...New Mexico... A significant fire weather event is expected across much of New Mexico. Strong surface winds of 25-40 mph appear likely, particularly in portions of central and northeastern New Mexico. Wind gusts with the mid-level jet overhead will approach 50-60 mph. ERC data shows much of this region at or above the 90th percentile due to ongoing severe drought. A swath of 5-10% RH is also probable during the afternoon. These conditions will promote extreme fire behavior should any ignitions occur. ...Southern High Plains... RH values near 10% are expected to extend into parts of eastern Colorado, western/central Kansas, and the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. Strong winds of 20-30 mph are also expected. The strongest winds are expected from the northwest Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles into southeast Colorado and far southwest Kansas. Strong downslope winds will extend into parts of the central Front Range. Critical fire weather will occur where the strongest winds overlap with sufficiently dry fuels. The critical highlights have been kept out of parts of the Texas Panhandle/South Plains where greenup will mitigate fuel receptiveness. Elsewhere, elevated to critical fire weather can be expect for several hours. The northern extent of the greatest fire weather risk will be delineated by the southward moving cold front. Some areas of northeast Colorado into northwest Kansas will see elevated to briefly critical conditions before winds shift to the north and RH rises. ..Wendt.. 04/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN ARIZONA AND MUCH OF NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will evolve from an upper low off the southern California coast today. This will drive increasing mid-level winds across much of the Southwest. East of the Divide, surface lee troughing will increase through the day. ...Eastern Arizona into New Mexico into southern High Plains... The strongest mid-level winds will not arrive until the evening, but moderate flow will be ongoing during the afternoon. Coupled with the lee trough to the east, 15-25 mph winds are possible across a broad portion of the Southwest into the southern High Plains. The strongest winds are expected in eastern Arizona and New Mexico. RH of 10-15% (locally 5-10%) in these areas will promote a critical fire weather threat. ...Central High Plains... With an extension of the lee trough into western Nebraska and eastern Wyoming, a zone of 15-20 mph downslope winds will develop during the afternoon. RH of 10-20% appears possible. Elevated fire weather is expected this afternoon. ...Mid-Missouri Valley... Southerly/southeasterly winds will reach 15-20 mph during the late morning to mid-afternoon. Model variance in terms of the RH during the afternoon is large. This is likely due to uncertainty in the amount of surface heating with mid/upper-level clouds in the region. Fuels will at least support a locally elevated fire weather threat. ..Wendt.. 04/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CORN BELT STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly from late afternoon Thursday into the evening, across parts of the Corn Belt States. Large to very large hail, a couple tornadoes, and localized damaging winds may occur. ...Synopsis... A longwave trough, consisting of multiple embedded shortwave impulses, will drift east from the southern Prairie Provinces to the Lower CO Valley. A lee surface cyclone will be anchored over the central High Plains. Minor, triple-point surface waves are expected along the baroclinic zone in far northeast KS and southern MN on Thursday afternoon. ...Corn Belt States... Along the leading edge of a stout EML and 700-mb warm front, isolated to scattered elevated convection should be ongoing at 12Z Thursday across parts of the lower MO Valley. This activity may pose a threat for isolated severe hail before weakening towards midday. Neutral mid-level height change is anticipated in its wake along the aforementioned baroclinic zone. Low-level warm theta-e advection and convergence along the front will be primary drivers of convective potential from late afternoon into Thursday night. Guidance spread is quite large for a D2 forecast with the thermodynamic setup ahead of the front, especially across IA to the northeast of the triple-point dryline intersection in northeast KS. The 00Z NAM is around 20 F cooler with surface temps at peak heating relative to the bulk of guidance that have very warm and well-mixed boundary layers. This has substantial impact on the spatial extent and amplitude of MLCAPE/MLCIN ahead of the front. It seems probable that mid to upper 50s surface dew points will spread as far north as southern MN. With a lean towards the more well-mixed guidance, this should support a corridor of moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE from 1500-2500 J/kg. The most probable signal for late-afternoon storm development is along the baroclinic zone from southeast NE into southern MN, coincident with supercell wind profiles. Weak low-level winds initially in the southeast NE region could support a long-track supercell capable of producing a very large hail swath. Otherwise, severe to sporadic significant severe hail seems plausible with late afternoon to early evening storms, along with localized severe gusts and a low-confidence tornado threat. Coverage of elevated storms may remain subdued on Thursday night. Despite a strong low-level jet across OK/KS to the Mid-MS Valley, restrengthening of the EML may inhibit sustained storms. Conditionally, the environment will support elevated supercells with a primary threat of large hail. ..Grams.. 04/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CORN BELT STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly from late afternoon Thursday into the evening, across parts of the Corn Belt States. Large to very large hail, a couple tornadoes, and localized damaging winds may occur. ...Synopsis... A longwave trough, consisting of multiple embedded shortwave impulses, will drift east from the southern Prairie Provinces to the Lower CO Valley. A lee surface cyclone will be anchored over the central High Plains. Minor, triple-point surface waves are expected along the baroclinic zone in far northeast KS and southern MN on Thursday afternoon. ...Corn Belt States... Along the leading edge of a stout EML and 700-mb warm front, isolated to scattered elevated convection should be ongoing at 12Z Thursday across parts of the lower MO Valley. This activity may pose a threat for isolated severe hail before weakening towards midday. Neutral mid-level height change is anticipated in its wake along the aforementioned baroclinic zone. Low-level warm theta-e advection and convergence along the front will be primary drivers of convective potential from late afternoon into Thursday night. Guidance spread is quite large for a D2 forecast with the thermodynamic setup ahead of the front, especially across IA to the northeast of the triple-point dryline intersection in northeast KS. The 00Z NAM is around 20 F cooler with surface temps at peak heating relative to the bulk of guidance that have very warm and well-mixed boundary layers. This has substantial impact on the spatial extent and amplitude of MLCAPE/MLCIN ahead of the front. It seems probable that mid to upper 50s surface dew points will spread as far north as southern MN. With a lean towards the more well-mixed guidance, this should support a corridor of moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE from 1500-2500 J/kg. The most probable signal for late-afternoon storm development is along the baroclinic zone from southeast NE into southern MN, coincident with supercell wind profiles. Weak low-level winds initially in the southeast NE region could support a long-track supercell capable of producing a very large hail swath. Otherwise, severe to sporadic significant severe hail seems plausible with late afternoon to early evening storms, along with localized severe gusts and a low-confidence tornado threat. Coverage of elevated storms may remain subdued on Thursday night. Despite a strong low-level jet across OK/KS to the Mid-MS Valley, restrengthening of the EML may inhibit sustained storms. Conditionally, the environment will support elevated supercells with a primary threat of large hail. ..Grams.. 04/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, with a primary threat of large hail, are possible this evening into tonight from parts of the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. ...Southern and Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley... A mid-level ridge will move eastward across the Great Plains today, as a surface low develops across northern Nebraska. In the wake of the ridge, moisture advection will increase across the southern and central Plains from late afternoon into the evening. By 00Z/Thursday, a moist axis will be located from central Oklahoma into central Kansas where surface dewpoints are forecast to be mostly in the 50s F. Early this evening, a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet is forecast to rapidly develop from western Oklahoma into west-central Kansas. Lift associated with the jet and low-level convergence near the dryline may be enough for isolated convective initiation. If storms can initiate and grow upscale, then isolated large hail and marginally severe gusts will be possible, aided by steep 700-500 mb lapse rates. During the mid to late evening, the potential for isolated thunderstorms capable of producing hail will likely develop eastward across parts of east-central Kansas and southeast Nebraska. As warm advection increases overnight, the hail threat may eventually affect parts of western Missouri and southwest Nebraska. ..Broyles/Wendt.. 04/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, with a primary threat of large hail, are possible this evening into tonight from parts of the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. ...Southern and Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley... A mid-level ridge will move eastward across the Great Plains today, as a surface low develops across northern Nebraska. In the wake of the ridge, moisture advection will increase across the southern and central Plains from late afternoon into the evening. By 00Z/Thursday, a moist axis will be located from central Oklahoma into central Kansas where surface dewpoints are forecast to be mostly in the 50s F. Early this evening, a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet is forecast to rapidly develop from western Oklahoma into west-central Kansas. Lift associated with the jet and low-level convergence near the dryline may be enough for isolated convective initiation. If storms can initiate and grow upscale, then isolated large hail and marginally severe gusts will be possible, aided by steep 700-500 mb lapse rates. During the mid to late evening, the potential for isolated thunderstorms capable of producing hail will likely develop eastward across parts of east-central Kansas and southeast Nebraska. As warm advection increases overnight, the hail threat may eventually affect parts of western Missouri and southwest Nebraska. ..Broyles/Wendt.. 04/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this evening in parts of the Sierra Mountains and in parts of the Desert Southwest. No severe threat is expected through tonight across the U.S. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough will move across the Northeast tonight, as an upper-level low approaches the coast of California. Ahead of the low, thunderstorm development will be possible this evening across parts of the Sierra Mountains, and from parts of southeast Arizona into western New Mexico. Over the continental U.S., no severe threat is expected through early morning on Wednesday. ..Broyles.. 04/16/2025 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z Model guidance consensus continues to support a deepening upper-level trough over the Intermountain West through Day 5/Saturday, before ejecting into the Plains and eastern U.S. early next week. Strong mid-level southwesterly flow south of this trough juxtaposed with a very dry boundary layer over the Desert Southwest will likely support Critical fire weather conditions for much of New Mexico northeastward into the Southern High Plains on Day 3/Thursday, before threat becomes more confined by Day 4/Friday as mid-level flow weakens. Elevated fire weather conditions could linger into the weekend for portions of far West Texas as a modest downslope regime remains in place. ...Day 3/Thursday... High ensemble guidance probabilities of Critical fire weather conditions suggest a higher confidence of a considerable synoptic fire weather event across New Mexico and adjacent Southern High Plains on Thursday. Sustained southwest surface winds of 20-25 mph with relative humidity falling into the single digits in many lowland locations are expected, with some high-end critical fire weather conditions possible in a few areas. The meteorological environment will overlap with persistent dry fuels across much of the Southwest, although some green-up is noted across portions of the southern Plains, acting to mitigate significant fire spread potential. ...Day 4/Friday... Mid-level jet translates across the Southwest eastward while a cold front intrudes southward into the Four Corners area, bringing some precipitation across the area Friday. However, Critical fire weather conditions are still likely across southern and eastern New Mexico ahead of the front. ...Day 5/Saturday through Day 8/Tuesday... Fire weather concerns wane overall across the Southwest as mid-level flow diminishes. There could be some downslope wind concerns across the central High Plains in the lee of the Central Rockies early next week but confidence remains low in scope and area. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage will remain possible into the early evening across parts of the Northeast. ...20Z Northeast... The prior outlooks remains largely unchanged with only minor modifications. Broad-scale ascent beneath the upper low over the Eastern US is supporting scattered, but shallow convection across the Northeast and New England. Low-topped thunderstorms will likely continue to pose a risk for occasional damaging gusts this afternoon. Limited moisture, and resulting buoyancy will continue to be the limiting factor for more sustained/stronger storms. Have trimmed the western extent of the Thunder area over parts of PA/OH. Scattered non-severe storms are also possible over the Four Corners and western US, see the previous discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 04/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025/ ...Northeast... Within the base of an eastward-moving large-scale trough over the eastern CONUS, a related 100+ kt midlevel jet streak will pivot eastward across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today. Ascent in the left-exit region of the jet will promote widely scattered, low-topped convection across the Northeast through the afternoon. Despite limited post-frontal boundary-layer moisture, diurnal heating beneath very cold midlevel temperatures will continue to steepen low-level lapse rates amid strengthening low/mid-level winds. This environment will support locally damaging convective wind gusts (45-60 mph) through the afternoon -- especially with any small clusters/lines that can evolve. ...Four Corners into southern Colorado... Isolated high-based thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Four Corners and southern CO this afternoon, where midlevel moisture atop a diurnally deepening boundary layer will yield inverted-V profiles. As a result, a couple locally strong downbursts cannot be entirely ruled out. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage will remain possible into the early evening across parts of the Northeast. ...20Z Northeast... The prior outlooks remains largely unchanged with only minor modifications. Broad-scale ascent beneath the upper low over the Eastern US is supporting scattered, but shallow convection across the Northeast and New England. Low-topped thunderstorms will likely continue to pose a risk for occasional damaging gusts this afternoon. Limited moisture, and resulting buoyancy will continue to be the limiting factor for more sustained/stronger storms. Have trimmed the western extent of the Thunder area over parts of PA/OH. Scattered non-severe storms are also possible over the Four Corners and western US, see the previous discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 04/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025/ ...Northeast... Within the base of an eastward-moving large-scale trough over the eastern CONUS, a related 100+ kt midlevel jet streak will pivot eastward across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today. Ascent in the left-exit region of the jet will promote widely scattered, low-topped convection across the Northeast through the afternoon. Despite limited post-frontal boundary-layer moisture, diurnal heating beneath very cold midlevel temperatures will continue to steepen low-level lapse rates amid strengthening low/mid-level winds. This environment will support locally damaging convective wind gusts (45-60 mph) through the afternoon -- especially with any small clusters/lines that can evolve. ...Four Corners into southern Colorado... Isolated high-based thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Four Corners and southern CO this afternoon, where midlevel moisture atop a diurnally deepening boundary layer will yield inverted-V profiles. As a result, a couple locally strong downbursts cannot be entirely ruled out. Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue Apr 15 19:57:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Apr 15 19:57:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN ARIZONA AND MUCH OF NEW MEXICO... ...Southwest... An approaching upper-level trough will provide increasing southwest flow aloft atop a very dry boundary layer over the Desert Southwest region. Relative humidity should drop below 10 percent across much of the lowland areas of southeastern Arizona/Southwestern New Mexico during peak heating along with widespread 10-15 percent RH spread across the area by tomorrow afternoon. Expanded Critical and Elevated highlights due to higher confidence indicated from latest model guidance consensus. ...Central High Plains... Elevated mid-level westerly flow will promote downslope drying and surface wind speeds of 15-20 mph across portions of southeastern Wyoming and western Nebraska. Minimal precipitation in the area over the last few days has allowed finer dormant/dead fuels to remain receptive. Added area of Elevated fire weather conditions to reflect overall fire weather threat. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0130 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper low off the southern California coast will begin to phase with a trough within the Northwest. Strong mid-level winds will develop over the Southwest by late afternoon. A surface low will deepen near the Colorado/Kansas border. ...Southwest... A broad area of elevated to critical fire weather is expected from southern/eastern Arizona into much of New Mexico and parts of southeast Colorado. Strong mid-level winds and the deepening surface low will combine to promote 15-25 mph surface winds (highest in terrain-favored areas). Critical fire weather is most likely to occur from southeast Arizona into southwest/west-central New Mexico. Here, strong winds will combine with areas of 5-15% RH. Elsewhere within the region, combinations of weaker winds and slightly higher RH (10-20%) will preclude critical highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more