SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected, mainly from late afternoon into the evening, across parts of the eastern Central Plains to the Upper Midwest. Large to very large hail and localized damaging winds are the primary risks. ...Central Plains to the Upper Midwest... Mean upper ridge is forecast to shift east during the period as a broad corridor of mid-level height falls spread across much of the Rockies into the upper MS Valley region. As this occurs, southwesterly flow will strengthen across the southern Rockies-central Plains-Upper Midwest. This evolution supports surface pressure rises across the northern Plains and a pronounced cold front will surge into southern MN-northwest IA-eastern NE by 18/00z. Strong boundary-layer heating is forecast south of this wind shift from eastern CO into southeast NE. As temperatures rise through the mid 80s, convective temperatures will be breached and frontal convergence should encourage thunderstorm development by 22-23z. Wile PW values are a bit marginal, surface dew points should rise into the mid 50s, and SBCAPE is expected to exceed 2500 J/kg by peak heating along the northeastern edge of the steeper lapse rate plume. HRRR forecast sounding for OMA at 18/00z exhibits very strong deep-layer shear with substantial 0-3km SRH. It appears scattered supercells may ultimately evolve along a corridor from southeast NE into southwest IA, and this activity will likely prove efficient in generating hail. Hail in excess of 2 inches may be noted in the most robust updrafts due to favorable hodographs. Although moisture is a bit scant, a narrow window for tornadoes does appear to exist if dew points can rise into the upper 50s, and this is most likely across portions of eastern NE into western IA. Supercell threat will spread northeast along the nose of a strengthening LLJ into the Upper Midwest during the evening hours; however, conditions downstream will be less favorable for surface-based convection by mid evening, and elevated updrafts should be more common. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 04/17/2025 Read more

MD 0455 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0455 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0923 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 170223Z - 170430Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and potentially strong/damaging surface gusts are possible as elevated storms move eastward this evening. DISCUSSION...Moisture return continues this evening in the southern/central Plains. Dewpoints have risen into the mid 50s F in south-central Kansas. Even with this increase in low-level moisture, cooling surface temperatures have contributed to slowly increasing CIN. With the low-level jet increasing within the region (around 50 kts per KVNX and KICT VAD data), convection has increased in coverage and intensity near and east of Dodge City. A continued increase in 850 mb winds through the evening will support additional convective development and potentially some clustering as activity moves into parts of eastern Kansas. There is some possibility that additional storms can develop north of the current activity, but confidence is low. The observed soundings at Dodge City and Topeka showed steep mid-level lapse rates (around 8 C/km). The stronger elevated storms would be capable of large hail given over 50 kts of effective shear. If storms can cluster later this evening, there would be some potential for a strong/damaging surface gust to occur as well. ..Wendt/Guyer.. 04/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC... LAT...LON 37299791 37399941 37520009 37590037 37750039 38110017 38979984 39369833 38979608 38219530 37649561 37429623 37269720 37299791 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and strong-severe outflow gusts remain possible this evening into tonight primarily across the central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a low-amplitude short-wave trough ejecting through the ridge into the central High Plains. 1km flow is beginning to strengthen ahead of this feature, and will do so markedly later this evening when speeds may exceed 60kt into southern KS. LLJ should veer into west central MO by the end of the period. Robust convection is expected to develop along the nose of the LLJ later this evening, and one or more clusters of storms should propagate across the central Plains into western MO. Hail and wind are possible with this activity. ..Darrow.. 04/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and strong-severe outflow gusts remain possible this evening into tonight primarily across the central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a low-amplitude short-wave trough ejecting through the ridge into the central High Plains. 1km flow is beginning to strengthen ahead of this feature, and will do so markedly later this evening when speeds may exceed 60kt into southern KS. LLJ should veer into west central MO by the end of the period. Robust convection is expected to develop along the nose of the LLJ later this evening, and one or more clusters of storms should propagate across the central Plains into western MO. Hail and wind are possible with this activity. ..Darrow.. 04/17/2025 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0437 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z A long-wave upper-level trough will translate northeastward from the Intermountain West into the Great Lakes region through the weekend. An attendant cold front will also progress south and eastward through early next week providing widespread wetting rains from eastern Texas into the Midwest mitigating fire weather concerns for a large portion of the central U.S. However, fire weather concerns will persist on the southern periphery of the upper-trough where stronger mid-level winds and persistent dry fuels remain over portions of New Mexico and far western Texas on day 3/Friday. Confidence remains high for a 70 percent chance of Critical fire weather conditions across this area. A cooler and more moist, post-frontal air mass infiltrates into much of New Mexico on Day 4/Saturday, limiting fire weather threat to the Big Bend area of Texas where a 40 percent chance of Critical fire weather conditions was introduced. Forecast confidence in noteworthy fire weather threat areas decreases early next week as a more zonal flow pattern sets up across the U.S. Dry and breezy conditions could return to portions of the Southwest by the end of the week (Day 8) with another possible upper-trough moving into the Western U.S. providing a dry, southwesterly flow regime. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0437 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z A long-wave upper-level trough will translate northeastward from the Intermountain West into the Great Lakes region through the weekend. An attendant cold front will also progress south and eastward through early next week providing widespread wetting rains from eastern Texas into the Midwest mitigating fire weather concerns for a large portion of the central U.S. However, fire weather concerns will persist on the southern periphery of the upper-trough where stronger mid-level winds and persistent dry fuels remain over portions of New Mexico and far western Texas on day 3/Friday. Confidence remains high for a 70 percent chance of Critical fire weather conditions across this area. A cooler and more moist, post-frontal air mass infiltrates into much of New Mexico on Day 4/Saturday, limiting fire weather threat to the Big Bend area of Texas where a 40 percent chance of Critical fire weather conditions was introduced. Forecast confidence in noteworthy fire weather threat areas decreases early next week as a more zonal flow pattern sets up across the U.S. Dry and breezy conditions could return to portions of the Southwest by the end of the week (Day 8) with another possible upper-trough moving into the Western U.S. providing a dry, southwesterly flow regime. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Apr 16 21:43:02 UTC 2025.

MD 0454 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SWRN INTO S CNTRL KS
Mesoscale Discussion 0454 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Areas affected...parts of swrn into s cntrl KS Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 162049Z - 162315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...An isolated supercell or two may evolve from initially high-based thunderstorm development by 6-7 PM CDT, posing primarily a risk for severe hail and locally strong surface gusts. DISCUSSION...As boundary-layer heating and mixing continues, deepening high-based convective development is ongoing in a corridor near/north of the Raton Mesa vicinity into southwestern Kansas. This appears focused downstream of a weak mid-level perturbation, which is progressing toward the crest of large-scale mid-level ridging across the southern Rockies through southern Great Plains. With continuing insolation, this convective development is likely to persist and gradually spread northeastward and eastward with the supporting large-scale forcing for ascent. Strongest boundary-layer heating appears focused northwest of the Dalhart TX toward Dodge City KS vicinity, where surface dew points remain in the upper 30s to lower 40s F. However, more substantive moistening is ongoing farther east, including a corridor across the Medicine Lodge toward Great Bend KS vicinities, where dew points may continue to increase into and through the lower mid 50s F, as southerly low-level flow strengthens through 23-00Z. It appears that this may contribute mixed-layer CAPE increasing to the order of 1000 J/kg. In the presence of lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, the boundary-layer destabilization may largely remain suppressed by warming, elevated mixed-layer air. However, the eventual intensification of initially high-based convection overspreading the region appears at least possible later this afternoon, particularly near/east of the Dodge City vicinity, aided by inflow of the potentially more unstable air. If this becomes sustained, shear beneath moderate to strong westerly mid/upper flow appears more than sufficient to support the evolution an isolated boundary-layer based supercell or two, primarily posing a risk for severe hail and locally strong surface gusts. ..Kerr/Mosier.. 04/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC... LAT...LON 38120106 38779896 38019788 37259826 37080128 38120106 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TO NORTHEAST KANSAS AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and strong-severe outflow gusts are possible this evening into tonight from parts of the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. ...Discussion... The forecast is on track, and no change is needed to the previous outlook. ..Smith.. 04/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025/ ...TX Panhandle to northeast KS and vicinity through tonight... Upper ridging that currently extends from the southern Plains into eastern Manitoba/northwest Ontario is forecast to shift eastward throughout the period. This eastward shift will occur as a shortwave trough drops south-southeastward through the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies, phasing with the upper low off the southern/central CA Coast as it does. This evolution will result in strengthening southwesterly flow aloft from the Southwest into the central Plains, which in turn will foster a deepening lee surface trough across the High Plains and eventual surface cyclogenesis over the central High Plains. Moisture return will also increase across the southern Plains, with upper 50s/low 60s dewpoints likely across much of OK by this evening. Some thunderstorm development could occur during the late afternoon/early evening where the western edge of this moisture interacts with a dryline that extends south from the developing central High Plains surface low. Convergence along this boundary will be modest and convective initiation remains uncertain given the warm mid-level temperatures and resultant capping. Even so, an isolated storm or two appears possible from southwest KS into the eastern TX Panhandle. Strong mid-level flow (and resulting long hodographs) support a supercellular storm mode with any convection that is also to deepen and persist. Large hail and damaging gusts would be possible with any supercells. Higher thunderstorm coverage is anticipated later tonight as the surface low and any afternoon storms move eastward across southwest/south-central KS into the greater low-level moisture, and a strengthening low-level jet fosters increased warm-air advection. Hail will likely be the primary risk with these storms, but the dry subcloud layer in place could still support a few gusts to the surface as well. Overall severe coverage is still expected to remain low enough to keep 5%/Marginal probabilities. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWESTERN...CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... A significant fire weather threat is still expected across portions of the Southwest and central High Plains Thursday. Strong mid-level flow over a very dry boundary layer will promote southwest surface winds of 30-40 mph amid relative humidity values of 5-10 percent during the afternoon across southwestern into northeastern New Mexico. Latest model guidance and increasing ensemble probabilities of significant fire weather threat across the area prompted an southwest to northeast elongation of the Extreme highlights across New Mexico. Higher confidence exists for enhanced downslope drying and associated stronger winds via lee cyclone development for Critical fire weather conditions across southeastern Colorado resulting in a slight northward expansion of Critical highlights into this area. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue its slow progression eastward on Thursday. Mid-level winds will increase and peak during the afternoon in New Mexico. A deep surface low will develop in eastern Colorado into western Kansas. A cold front will move southward into the central Plains by late afternoon. ...New Mexico... A significant fire weather event is expected across much of New Mexico. Strong surface winds of 25-40 mph appear likely, particularly in portions of central and northeastern New Mexico. Wind gusts with the mid-level jet overhead will approach 50-60 mph. ERC data shows much of this region at or above the 90th percentile due to ongoing severe drought. A swath of 5-10% RH is also probable during the afternoon. These conditions will promote extreme fire behavior should any ignitions occur. ...Southern High Plains... RH values near 10% are expected to extend into parts of eastern Colorado, western/central Kansas, and the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. Strong winds of 20-30 mph are also expected. The strongest winds are expected from the northwest Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles into southeast Colorado and far southwest Kansas. Strong downslope winds will extend into parts of the central Front Range. Critical fire weather will occur where the strongest winds overlap with sufficiently dry fuels. The critical highlights have been kept out of parts of the Texas Panhandle/South Plains where greenup will mitigate fuel receptiveness. Elsewhere, elevated to critical fire weather can be expect for several hours. The northern extent of the greatest fire weather risk will be delineated by the southward moving cold front. Some areas of northeast Colorado into northwest Kansas will see elevated to briefly critical conditions before winds shift to the north and RH rises. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the central Great Lakes to the southern Great Plains, mainly during the late afternoon Friday into Friday night. ...Synopsis... Within a broad open wave trough, a swath of increasing southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies and extend into the southern and central Plains. At the surface, a front will extend roughly from western Oklahoma northward to Wisconsin, with a surface low tracking eastward to the Great Lakes region. A secondary area of cyclogenesis is expected to develop across the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles through the period. Scattered thunderstorms development is expected along the front from the southern Great Plains to the Great Lakes region. ...Central Great Lakes to the Southern Great Plains... An area of elevated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across the northern portion of the outlook area. These will pose some lingering risk of severe hail early. Additional thunderstorm development is expected through the afternoon and evening along the cold front. This development will be delayed by a pronounced EML and MLCIN along and ahead of the boundary. As a secondary low establishes across the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles, thunderstorm development will likely occur along the dryline across the Southern Plains. As the cold front sags southwards and upper-level cooling and forcing overspreads the boundary, additional scattered thunderstorm development is expected to continue northward into the Great Lakes region. Shear profiles are largely boundary parallel, which would favor training and clustering of thunderstorms through time. Given broad region of favorable MLCAPE and deep layer shear, storms will be capable of large hail and damaging winds. Early more discrete storm modes across southern Oklahoma/north Texas on the edge of a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates may promote a conditional risk of very large hail early on. ..Thornton/Jewell.. 04/16/2025 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Apr 16 17:50:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly from late afternoon Thursday into the evening, across parts of the eastern Central Plains to the Upper Midwest. Large to very large hail and localized damaging winds are the primary risks. ...Synopsis... A broad open wave trough will extend from the western Canada into the Northern Rockies and Great Basin on Thursday, with broad southwesterly flow extending from the Southwest through the central/northern Plains. A surface cyclone is expected to develop across western Kansas, with a diffuse frontal boundary extending southwest to northeast across the Central Plains into the Midwest. The triple point near the low/dryline/front interface is expected to be the focus point for convective development by the afternoon and evening from eastern Nebraska to Iowa and into Minnesota. ...Eastern Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... As the low develops across western Kansas late Wednesday into Thursday, southerly return flow will bring moisture northward into the central Plains. Afternoon thunderstorm development is expected as differential heating is maximized along a frontal boundary across eastern Nebraska Thursday afternoon. This region will be characterized by dew points in the 50s to 60s, with MLCAPE around 1500-2500 J/kg by the afternoon amid a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates. While MLCIN is expected to increase across portions of Iowa, a corridor of open warm sector is expected to develop across eastern Nebraska where wind profiles will support supercells. These supercells may be initially surface based, capable of large hail (some very large 2"+), damaging wind, and perhaps a tornado. Boundary parallel flow will likely lead to some undercutting of storms as well as storm motions that favor training cells, which will likely limit the tornado threat into the evening while potential for large hail and damaging wind continues with eastward extent. A few surface based cells may develop as far north as southwestern Minnesota. Moisture profiles are less favorable this far northward but convergence along the front/surface trough along with favorable wind profiles will support some risk for large hail, damaging wind, and perhaps a tornado. ..Thornton/Jewell.. 04/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly from late afternoon Thursday into the evening, across parts of the eastern Central Plains to the Upper Midwest. Large to very large hail and localized damaging winds are the primary risks. ...Synopsis... A broad open wave trough will extend from the western Canada into the Northern Rockies and Great Basin on Thursday, with broad southwesterly flow extending from the Southwest through the central/northern Plains. A surface cyclone is expected to develop across western Kansas, with a diffuse frontal boundary extending southwest to northeast across the Central Plains into the Midwest. The triple point near the low/dryline/front interface is expected to be the focus point for convective development by the afternoon and evening from eastern Nebraska to Iowa and into Minnesota. ...Eastern Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... As the low develops across western Kansas late Wednesday into Thursday, southerly return flow will bring moisture northward into the central Plains. Afternoon thunderstorm development is expected as differential heating is maximized along a frontal boundary across eastern Nebraska Thursday afternoon. This region will be characterized by dew points in the 50s to 60s, with MLCAPE around 1500-2500 J/kg by the afternoon amid a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates. While MLCIN is expected to increase across portions of Iowa, a corridor of open warm sector is expected to develop across eastern Nebraska where wind profiles will support supercells. These supercells may be initially surface based, capable of large hail (some very large 2"+), damaging wind, and perhaps a tornado. Boundary parallel flow will likely lead to some undercutting of storms as well as storm motions that favor training cells, which will likely limit the tornado threat into the evening while potential for large hail and damaging wind continues with eastward extent. A few surface based cells may develop as far north as southwestern Minnesota. Moisture profiles are less favorable this far northward but convergence along the front/surface trough along with favorable wind profiles will support some risk for large hail, damaging wind, and perhaps a tornado. ..Thornton/Jewell.. 04/16/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN ARIZONA INTO NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... Latest model guidance and surface observations supported an eastward expansion of Elevated highlights farther into Nebraska. Minimal boundary layer moisture and persistent westerly flow will keep relative humidity rather low (10-20% range) through the day coupled with breezy west winds, supporting Elevated fire weather conditions across southeastern Wyoming and western Nebraska. Otherwise, forecast remains on track across the Southwest and adjacent southern High Plains with a broad area of Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns in place. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will evolve from an upper low off the southern California coast today. This will drive increasing mid-level winds across much of the Southwest. East of the Divide, surface lee troughing will increase through the day. ...Eastern Arizona into New Mexico into southern High Plains... The strongest mid-level winds will not arrive until the evening, but moderate flow will be ongoing during the afternoon. Coupled with the lee trough to the east, 15-25 mph winds are possible across a broad portion of the Southwest into the southern High Plains. The strongest winds are expected in eastern Arizona and New Mexico. RH of 10-15% (locally 5-10%) in these areas will promote a critical fire weather threat. ...Central High Plains... With an extension of the lee trough into western Nebraska and eastern Wyoming, a zone of 15-20 mph downslope winds will develop during the afternoon. RH of 10-20% appears possible. Elevated fire weather is expected this afternoon. ...Mid-Missouri Valley... Southerly/southeasterly winds will reach 15-20 mph during the late morning to mid-afternoon. Model variance in terms of the RH during the afternoon is large. This is likely due to uncertainty in the amount of surface heating with mid/upper-level clouds in the region. Fuels will at least support a locally elevated fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TO NORTHEAST KANSAS AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and strong-severe outflow gusts are possible this evening into tonight from parts of the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. ...TX Panhandle to northeast KS and vicinity through tonight... Upper ridging that currently extends from the southern Plains into eastern Manitoba/northwest Ontario is forecast to shift eastward throughout the period. This eastward shift will occur as a shortwave trough drops south-southeastward through the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies, phasing with the upper low off the southern/central CA Coast as it does. This evolution will result in strengthening southwesterly flow aloft from the Southwest into the central Plains, which in turn will foster a deepening lee surface trough across the High Plains and eventual surface cyclogenesis over the central High Plains. Moisture return will also increase across the southern Plains, with upper 50s/low 60s dewpoints likely across much of OK by this evening. Some thunderstorm development could occur during the late afternoon/early evening where the western edge of this moisture interacts with a dryline that extends south from the developing central High Plains surface low. Convergence along this boundary will be modest and convective initiation remains uncertain given the warm mid-level temperatures and resultant capping. Even so, an isolated storm or two appears possible from southwest KS into the eastern TX Panhandle. Strong mid-level flow (and resulting long hodographs) support a supercellular storm mode with any convection that is also to deepen and persist. Large hail and damaging gusts would be possible with any supercells. Higher thunderstorm coverage is anticipated later tonight as the surface low and any afternoon storms move eastward across southwest/south-central KS into the greater low-level moisture, and a strengthening low-level jet fosters increased warm-air advection. Hail will likely be the primary risk with these storms, but the dry subcloud layer in place could still support a few gusts to the surface as well. Overall severe coverage is still expected to remain low enough to keep 5%/Marginal probabilities. ..Mosier/Weinman.. 04/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TO NORTHEAST KANSAS AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and strong-severe outflow gusts are possible this evening into tonight from parts of the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. ...TX Panhandle to northeast KS and vicinity through tonight... Midlevel ridging will shift slowly eastward from the Great Plains to the MS Valley by tonight, as a midlevel trough digs southward toward the northern Great Basin and begins to phase with a closed low off the CA coast. This pattern will favor west-southwesterly flow over the Rockies and lee cyclogenesis across the central High Plains. Northward advection of a modifying Gulf air mass will occur from TX to KS, beneath an elevated mixed layer. Thunderstorm development will become possible late this afternoon/evening from the TX Panhandle into southwest KS, where surface heating and sufficiently deep mixing occur along the developing dryline. MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and long hodographs will favor high-based supercells capable of producing isolated large hail and strong-severe outflow gusts. Confidence in diurnal storm development is modest, but storms that form (especially across KS) could persist/spread eastward overnight with a strengthening low-level jet and associated warm advection. ..Thompson/Dean.. 04/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TO NORTHEAST KANSAS AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and strong-severe outflow gusts are possible this evening into tonight from parts of the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. ...TX Panhandle to northeast KS and vicinity through tonight... Midlevel ridging will shift slowly eastward from the Great Plains to the MS Valley by tonight, as a midlevel trough digs southward toward the northern Great Basin and begins to phase with a closed low off the CA coast. This pattern will favor west-southwesterly flow over the Rockies and lee cyclogenesis across the central High Plains. Northward advection of a modifying Gulf air mass will occur from TX to KS, beneath an elevated mixed layer. Thunderstorm development will become possible late this afternoon/evening from the TX Panhandle into southwest KS, where surface heating and sufficiently deep mixing occur along the developing dryline. MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and long hodographs will favor high-based supercells capable of producing isolated large hail and strong-severe outflow gusts. Confidence in diurnal storm development is modest, but storms that form (especially across KS) could persist/spread eastward overnight with a strengthening low-level jet and associated warm advection. ..Thompson/Dean.. 04/16/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential remains apparent into the weekend, but predictability wanes substantially by D5/Sunday. ...D4/Saturday... The persistent longwave trough is expected to breakdown as an embedded northern-stream shortwave impulse accelerates east across ON/QC and the basal shortwave impulse moves more gradually east into the southern High Plains. Through Saturday afternoon, an expansive swath of strong mid-level flow will persist from the central Appalachians southwestward into the southern Great Plains. The nearly stalled baroclinic zone from TX/OK into the Lower OH Valley will likely be modulated by ongoing convection on Saturday morning. But with appreciable boundary-layer heating of a seasonably moist air mass to the south-southeast, scattered severe storms are plausible from the Upper OH Valley through central TX. ...D5/Sunday... The 00Z GFS and related GEFS are substantially different relative to 24 hours ago with the evolution of the compact shortwave trough ejecting across the southern Great Plains and the attendant synoptic cyclone. Most other guidance has remained relatively consistent to prior days with probable cyclogenesis from OK to the Lower MO Valley. This would result in a confined belt of strong mid-level southwesterlies overlapping a broad warm sector with rich western Gulf moisture. Potentially extensive convection in parts of OK/TX on Sunday morning does complicate exactly how far north-northwest appreciable destabilization may occur into the Ozarks/Lower MO Valley and beyond. Overall setup outside of the GFS-based guidance appears to support scattered severe storms across the South-Central States on Sunday afternoon/evening. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential remains apparent into the weekend, but predictability wanes substantially by D5/Sunday. ...D4/Saturday... The persistent longwave trough is expected to breakdown as an embedded northern-stream shortwave impulse accelerates east across ON/QC and the basal shortwave impulse moves more gradually east into the southern High Plains. Through Saturday afternoon, an expansive swath of strong mid-level flow will persist from the central Appalachians southwestward into the southern Great Plains. The nearly stalled baroclinic zone from TX/OK into the Lower OH Valley will likely be modulated by ongoing convection on Saturday morning. But with appreciable boundary-layer heating of a seasonably moist air mass to the south-southeast, scattered severe storms are plausible from the Upper OH Valley through central TX. ...D5/Sunday... The 00Z GFS and related GEFS are substantially different relative to 24 hours ago with the evolution of the compact shortwave trough ejecting across the southern Great Plains and the attendant synoptic cyclone. Most other guidance has remained relatively consistent to prior days with probable cyclogenesis from OK to the Lower MO Valley. This would result in a confined belt of strong mid-level southwesterlies overlapping a broad warm sector with rich western Gulf moisture. Potentially extensive convection in parts of OK/TX on Sunday morning does complicate exactly how far north-northwest appreciable destabilization may occur into the Ozarks/Lower MO Valley and beyond. Overall setup outside of the GFS-based guidance appears to support scattered severe storms across the South-Central States on Sunday afternoon/evening. Read more