MD 0473 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0473 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0835 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Areas affected...northeast Oklahoma...northwest Arkansas...and southern Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 190135Z - 190300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Storm coverage is expected to increase late this evening and into the overnight period, including the potential for supercells. DISCUSSION...Storms have started to develop along the front in northeast Oklahoma this evening. Expect storm coverage to increase along the front through the evening and into the overnight period as the low-level jet strengthens. Elevated hail will be the primary threat north of the front with the potential for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado along and south of the front. However, the threat for storms along and on the warm side of the boundary remains questionable given the boundary orientation and storm motion. A severe thunderstorm watch may need to be issued to address this threat continuing into the overnight period. ..Bentley/Guyer.. 04/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA... LAT...LON 35339580 36449493 37259421 38439240 38469125 38099083 37379070 36399092 35689220 34999337 34739426 34819504 34889562 35339580 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 0474 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 0474 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0845 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Areas affected...portions of central into northern Lower Michigan Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 190145Z - 190315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A couple instances of hail (some perhaps exceeding 1 inch in diameter) are possible with the stronger, longer-lived storms through the evening hours. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue to gradually increase in coverage and intensity within a low-level warm-air advection regime, north of the warm sector. The 00Z APX observed sounding depicts a thin but long CAPE profile above 700 mb, with 8 C/km mid-level lapse rates supporting near 1000 J/kg MUCAPE. The observed hodograph above 700 mb is elongated and straight, indicating strong speed shear in the mid-levels of the troposphere. As such, hail is possible with some of the stronger storms. The narrow constriction of CAPE in the buoyant layer suggests that maximum hail size may also be relatively limited, but may still exceed marginally severe thresholds in spots. Nonetheless, given the expected isolated nature of the severe hail threat, a WW issuance is not expected. ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 04/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR... LAT...LON 43988658 44548586 44748476 44628364 44368343 44048385 43778403 43498458 43398547 43518647 43988658 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0143 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 143 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BENTLEY..04/19/25 ATTN...WFO...TSA...LZK...SGF...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 143 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-009-015-033-087-143-190340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON BOONE CARROLL CRAWFORD MADISON WASHINGTON MOC009-029-039-043-055-057-059-065-067-071-073-077-085-091-093- 097-099-105-109-119-123-125-131-145-151-153-161-167-169-179-183- 186-187-189-203-209-213-215-219-221-225-229-510-190340- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRY CAMDEN CEDAR CHRISTIAN CRAWFORD DADE DALLAS DENT DOUGLAS FRANKLIN GASCONADE GREENE HICKORY HOWELL IRON JASPER JEFFERSON LACLEDE LAWRENCE MCDONALD MADISON MARIES MILLER NEWTON OSAGE OZARK PHELPS POLK PULASKI REYNOLDS Read more

WW 0145 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0145 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0144 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0144 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible from parts of the southern Plains northeastward through the mid Mississippi Valley tonight. Large to very large hail should be the main hazard, especially across the southern Plains where storms will be more concentrated. ...01z Update... Extensive cloud cover has developed within broad southwesterly flow from northern Mexico, northeast across the southern Plains into the Mid-MS Valley region. This has suppressed warm-sector temperatures across the southern Plains and the synoptic front has surged a bit farther south than earlier expected. Net result is significant CINH persists across the southern Plains and surface-based convection has struggled to develop. 1km flow is expected to strengthen across the southern Plains later this evening and this should aid elevated convection north of the cold front that currently extends from near LBB-north of SPS-near SGF. 00z sounding at OUN remains quite capped, but inhibition is notably weaker downstream from SGF to ILX. Latest radar data suggests a gradual increase in elevated convection across the eastern TX Panhandle into far western OK. This activity should gradually expand through the late-evening into the overnight hours. Large hail is the primary risk with these elevated storms Otherwise, some severe risk remains with any frontal convection that evolves overnight downstream across the Mid-MS Valley into western IN. ..Darrow.. 04/19/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Apr 18 23:16:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Apr 18 23:16:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0434 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z Active mid-level flow is expected over much of the US through the extended forecast period. An upper trough will migrate across the Plains and central US this weekend, as an area of low pressure and cold front move east with it. As the cold front over the plains stalls, the trailing portion will move westward, increasing RH and overnight recoveries for several days across the Southwest and southern High Plains. This will keep fire-weather conditions relatively limited until the next larger trough begins to approach midweek next week. ...Southern Great Basin into the Southwest... Midweek next week, the cooler air mass behind the aforementioned cold front will begin to modify as the next upper trough approaches the West Coast. Increasingly strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the drying and warming air mass, supporting some increase in fire-weather potential. Model timing differences remain substantial, though ensembles shows elevated conditions emerging by D6/Thurs. More substantial fire-weather conditions are possible into next weekend, as the main trough overspreads the southern Rockies and High Plains. ...FL... Very dry conditions are expected to persist across south FL through the middle of next week as high pressure continues to intensify over the eastern Atlantic this weekend. Relatively dry east/southeasterly flow is expected along with very warm temperatures. The combination of warm temperatures and modest moisture will support elevated fire-weather conditions given dry fuels D3/Sunday. Further drying of fuels is also expected over southern FL next week. Some risk for locally elevated fire weather conditions remains possible for the inland and western Peninsula much of next week. ...Central High Plains... A period of westerly downslope flow is likely from this weekend into early next week as flow aloft becomes more zonal. Downslope winds may reach critical criteria behind the cold front, but substantial uncertainty remains on diurnal RH minimums given the cooler surface temperatures. Additionally, widespread precipitation is expected over the next several days, likely tempering fuels and supporting only localized fire-weather concerns. ..Lyons.. 04/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0469 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SWRN THROUGH MUCH OF ERN MO...CNTRL AND NRN IL
Mesoscale Discussion 0469 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Areas affected...swrn through much of ern MO...cntrl and nrn IL Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 181953Z - 182230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...The initiation of thunderstorms probably will begin to increase by 5-7 PM, but this may be slow and rather widely scattered in nature, resulting in uncertainty concerning severe weather watch issuance. Storms that do develop may include supercells with severe hail, locally strong surface gusts, and at least some risk for a tornado. DISCUSSION...Much of the region remains beneath strong, but broadly anticyclonic mid/upper flow, on the northwestern periphery of prominent large-scale ridging within a stagnant to slowly progressive regime. However, one weak embedded mid-level perturbation has been slowly shifting into/across the middle Mississippi Valley vicinity, with associated lift contributing to a gradual erosion of mid-level inhibition associated with elevated mixed-layer air across Missouri into Illinois. This is coinciding with diurnal destabilization of a modestly moist boundary layer within lee surface troughing across the region. Although this has been slowed by broken layers of cloudiness, mixed-layer CAPE appears on the order of 1000-1500 J/kg, with at least some further increase through 22-00Z. At the same time, low-level hodographs may enlarge beneath southwesterly 850 mb flow forecast to strengthen to 30-40+ kt. As the environment becomes conditionally supportive of supercell development across a sizable area, the focus for and extent of thunderstorm initiation remains more unclear. Guidance suggests that inhibition will become weakest within a relatively narrow corridor near/just ahead of the cold front now still west of the Rockford and Quincy IL, Columbia and Joplin MO, vicinities. However, better mid/upper forcing for ascent continues to spread ahead of the front across parts of northern/central Illinois and east central into south central Missouri. Currently, it appears that thunderstorm initiation will be gradual and rather widely scattered into late afternoon. ..Kerr/Smith.. 04/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX... LAT...LON 37419464 38309378 39779206 41979026 42578840 41888716 40268803 39338896 37639076 36699384 37419464 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AREA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the southern Plains northeastward through the mid Mississippi Valley and southwestern Great Lakes, mainly from late afternoon into early Saturday morning. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts should be the main hazards, especially across the southern Plains where storms will be more concentrated. A few tornadoes also appear possible. ...Discussion... Aside from some minor trimming of the MRGL risk area across southern Wisconsin, and from the western Oklahoma vicinity into southern Kansas, no changes appear necessary at this time. Extensive cloud cover along the frontal zone -- from the southern Plains to Wisconsin -- continues to modulate heating/destabilization in the near-frontal warm sector. These effects include a persistent, stout cap across the southern Plains area early this afternoon (per the 18Z OUN RAOB). Still, storm development is expected late this afternoon, as reflected in previous forecasts, with all-hazards severe potential with more vigorous convection. ..Goss.. 04/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025/ ...Southern Plains to the Ozarks... Strong southwesterly mid to high-level flow will extend from the southern High Plains northeastward into the Great Lakes, downstream of a mid- to upper-level low over the Four Corners states. A cold front was analyzed from the Low Rolling Plains northeastward through central OK late this morning. This portion of the front will continue southeastward into the I-44 corridor but decelerate towards late afternoon. A dryline extends southward from the front over the TX Big Country. Despite widespread mid/high-level cloudiness, filtered heating of a moist/destabilizing airmass will likely result in a weakened cap by late afternoon. Initial supercell development should pose a threat for large to very large hail, potentially up to 2-3 inches in diameter. Model forecast hodographs and ample PW suggest a strong tendency towards upscale growth into an HP supercell and linear segment this evening from south-central OK northeastward towards the western part of the Ozark Plateau. Coincident with this expected convective mode evolution, an increase in the severe/damaging wind threat is anticipated. The threat for a few tornadoes remains apparent, especially across parts of OK along/south of the front, as favorable low-level shear will be present this evening where surface-based supercells and mesovortex potential may still exist. ...Lower MI to Mid Mississippi Valley... In wake of weakened thunderstorm activity across Lower MI, a warm sector will attempt to spread northward and destabilize across parts of the mid MS Valley and southern/central Great Lakes this afternoon. An upper trough will only slowly encroach on the Upper Midwest through late tonight. As a result, southwesterly flow aloft will be maintained and limited southeastward progression of a cold front is forecast. Model guidance continues to indicate surface-based thunderstorm development will be inhibited until peak heating, when frontal forcing and gradual erosion of the cap leads to isolated storms developing from MO northeastward towards the southwest Great Lakes. Uncertainty remains regarding timing, overall thunderstorm coverage, and the exact evolution of this activity. Nonetheless, strong shear through a deep layer and adequate buoyancy (due in part to steep mid-level lapse rates), will support organized thunderstorms. The stronger thunderstorms will probably pose a risk for severe hail and damaging winds. This severe threat may persist for much of the evening, and perhaps continuing into the early overnight hours. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AREA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the southern Plains northeastward through the mid Mississippi Valley and southwestern Great Lakes, mainly from late afternoon into early Saturday morning. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts should be the main hazards, especially across the southern Plains where storms will be more concentrated. A few tornadoes also appear possible. ...Discussion... Aside from some minor trimming of the MRGL risk area across southern Wisconsin, and from the western Oklahoma vicinity into southern Kansas, no changes appear necessary at this time. Extensive cloud cover along the frontal zone -- from the southern Plains to Wisconsin -- continues to modulate heating/destabilization in the near-frontal warm sector. These effects include a persistent, stout cap across the southern Plains area early this afternoon (per the 18Z OUN RAOB). Still, storm development is expected late this afternoon, as reflected in previous forecasts, with all-hazards severe potential with more vigorous convection. ..Goss.. 04/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025/ ...Southern Plains to the Ozarks... Strong southwesterly mid to high-level flow will extend from the southern High Plains northeastward into the Great Lakes, downstream of a mid- to upper-level low over the Four Corners states. A cold front was analyzed from the Low Rolling Plains northeastward through central OK late this morning. This portion of the front will continue southeastward into the I-44 corridor but decelerate towards late afternoon. A dryline extends southward from the front over the TX Big Country. Despite widespread mid/high-level cloudiness, filtered heating of a moist/destabilizing airmass will likely result in a weakened cap by late afternoon. Initial supercell development should pose a threat for large to very large hail, potentially up to 2-3 inches in diameter. Model forecast hodographs and ample PW suggest a strong tendency towards upscale growth into an HP supercell and linear segment this evening from south-central OK northeastward towards the western part of the Ozark Plateau. Coincident with this expected convective mode evolution, an increase in the severe/damaging wind threat is anticipated. The threat for a few tornadoes remains apparent, especially across parts of OK along/south of the front, as favorable low-level shear will be present this evening where surface-based supercells and mesovortex potential may still exist. ...Lower MI to Mid Mississippi Valley... In wake of weakened thunderstorm activity across Lower MI, a warm sector will attempt to spread northward and destabilize across parts of the mid MS Valley and southern/central Great Lakes this afternoon. An upper trough will only slowly encroach on the Upper Midwest through late tonight. As a result, southwesterly flow aloft will be maintained and limited southeastward progression of a cold front is forecast. Model guidance continues to indicate surface-based thunderstorm development will be inhibited until peak heating, when frontal forcing and gradual erosion of the cap leads to isolated storms developing from MO northeastward towards the southwest Great Lakes. Uncertainty remains regarding timing, overall thunderstorm coverage, and the exact evolution of this activity. Nonetheless, strong shear through a deep layer and adequate buoyancy (due in part to steep mid-level lapse rates), will support organized thunderstorms. The stronger thunderstorms will probably pose a risk for severe hail and damaging winds. This severe threat may persist for much of the evening, and perhaps continuing into the early overnight hours. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z No changes were made to the forecast for Saturday. Some uncertainty remains in timing of cold front passage across the Trans-Pecos area affecting residence time of Elevated fire weather conditions. Higher confidence of an Elevated to a locally Critical fire weather threat will exist across the Big Bend area with southwest winds of 15-20 mph and relative humidity dropping to below 10 percent at times, before conditions moderate for Saturday evening behind the cold front. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1247 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will eject into the southern Plains on Saturday, though it will lose some amplitude during the period. A cold front will continue southward into more of the southern High Plains and eventually the Permian Basin. A surface low near the Trans-Pecos/Big Bend will deepen during the day before weakening during the evening as the trough lifts northeastward. ...Trans-Pecos/Big Bend... Though cooler/moist air to the east and north will limit the areal extent, elevated fire weather will occur within the Trans-Pecos and Big Bend Saturday afternoon. Moderate to strong mid-level winds will remain in the region during the afternoon and the surface low will also be deepest during the favorable diurnal heating maximum. Cloud cover should be minimal in this area given the presence of dry air aloft. Surface winds of 15-20 mph are likely along with RH of 5-20%. Areas of southeast New Mexico into the South Plains could see briefly elevated conditions, but uncertainty in duration is too great for highlights. ...Florida... Continued dry easterly flow will once again promote elevated fire weather along the western Peninsula during the afternoon. Models indicate winds could be slightly stronger than on Friday (10-15 mph). RH will fall to similar levels, however (25-35% anticipated by the afternoon. Very dry fuels will support fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z No changes were made to the forecast for Saturday. Some uncertainty remains in timing of cold front passage across the Trans-Pecos area affecting residence time of Elevated fire weather conditions. Higher confidence of an Elevated to a locally Critical fire weather threat will exist across the Big Bend area with southwest winds of 15-20 mph and relative humidity dropping to below 10 percent at times, before conditions moderate for Saturday evening behind the cold front. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1247 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will eject into the southern Plains on Saturday, though it will lose some amplitude during the period. A cold front will continue southward into more of the southern High Plains and eventually the Permian Basin. A surface low near the Trans-Pecos/Big Bend will deepen during the day before weakening during the evening as the trough lifts northeastward. ...Trans-Pecos/Big Bend... Though cooler/moist air to the east and north will limit the areal extent, elevated fire weather will occur within the Trans-Pecos and Big Bend Saturday afternoon. Moderate to strong mid-level winds will remain in the region during the afternoon and the surface low will also be deepest during the favorable diurnal heating maximum. Cloud cover should be minimal in this area given the presence of dry air aloft. Surface winds of 15-20 mph are likely along with RH of 5-20%. Areas of southeast New Mexico into the South Plains could see briefly elevated conditions, but uncertainty in duration is too great for highlights. ...Florida... Continued dry easterly flow will once again promote elevated fire weather along the western Peninsula during the afternoon. Models indicate winds could be slightly stronger than on Friday (10-15 mph). RH will fall to similar levels, however (25-35% anticipated by the afternoon. Very dry fuels will support fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO FAR WESTERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into the lower Missouri and middle Mississippi Valleys. The greatest damaging wind and tornado potential will be over central and northern Missouri into far western Illinois. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Models are in relatively good agreement depicting a negative-tilt shortwave trough and upper low moving northeastward from the TX Panhandle Sunday morning into IA by 00Z. The leading speed max will be compact but intense, resulting in rapid height falls across KS/MO/IA/IL. At the surface, low pressure will deepen from eastern OK into IA, with a cold front extending south from the low and sweeping eastward across MO, AR, and southeast IA during the day. As the low develops northward, a warm front will surge north across far eastern KS, MO and IL, with low 60s F dewpoints possible. Heating will occur as well, resulting in MUCAPE of 750-1000 J/kg. Although instability will not be particularly high, shear profiles will become quite strong, supporting supercells with tornado potential. Several models indicate cells along a line and/or QLCS type structures with activity moving rapidly across the area, in a region with over 300 m2/s2 ESRH. Storms may form before noon across far eastern KS and OK, with a maturing line of severe storms into western MO and northwest AR by 21Z. Damaging wind and isolated tornado risk will peak during the late afternoon or early evening, supported by the fast-moving shortwave trough. Depending on instability trends, sig/hatching could be added in later updates. ..Jewell.. 04/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO FAR WESTERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into the lower Missouri and middle Mississippi Valleys. The greatest damaging wind and tornado potential will be over central and northern Missouri into far western Illinois. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Models are in relatively good agreement depicting a negative-tilt shortwave trough and upper low moving northeastward from the TX Panhandle Sunday morning into IA by 00Z. The leading speed max will be compact but intense, resulting in rapid height falls across KS/MO/IA/IL. At the surface, low pressure will deepen from eastern OK into IA, with a cold front extending south from the low and sweeping eastward across MO, AR, and southeast IA during the day. As the low develops northward, a warm front will surge north across far eastern KS, MO and IL, with low 60s F dewpoints possible. Heating will occur as well, resulting in MUCAPE of 750-1000 J/kg. Although instability will not be particularly high, shear profiles will become quite strong, supporting supercells with tornado potential. Several models indicate cells along a line and/or QLCS type structures with activity moving rapidly across the area, in a region with over 300 m2/s2 ESRH. Storms may form before noon across far eastern KS and OK, with a maturing line of severe storms into western MO and northwest AR by 21Z. Damaging wind and isolated tornado risk will peak during the late afternoon or early evening, supported by the fast-moving shortwave trough. Depending on instability trends, sig/hatching could be added in later updates. ..Jewell.. 04/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible mainly from Texas into southern Missouri on Saturday. Isolated strong storms may occur during the day across the Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will fill slightly as it moves from AZ/NM into the southern Plains. Ahead of this feature a broad belt of strong southwest flow aloft will extend from the southern Plains into the Northeast, where a deepening upper low will develop into Quebec. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will remain situated over the Southeast. At the surface, a boundary will stretch from the northeastern states southwestward across the OH Valley and into northwest TX. The New England portion of this boundary will push east as a cold front during the day, with scattered convection in a weak instability but strong mean wind environment. The OH Valley portion of the front will be stationary, but a narrow band of instability will exist along it. Glancing warm advection with west/southwest winds and heating may yield a few thunderstorms, but sounding show relatively weak instability or overall severe potential. ...TX into southern MO and into the OH Valley... Early day storms are likely to exist from eastern OK into MO and extending north of the OH River, in a zone of low-level theta-e advection. Marginal hail cannot be ruled out over southern parts of this regime where elevated instability will be stronger, but overall it appears widespread rain may reduce severe potential at that time. To the south, stronger instability will exist from OK into TX, with a destabilizing warm sector south of the quasi-stationary front. This front will extend roughly from eastern OK into southwest TX through the period, with substantial moisture flux northward into the lifting zone. As such, midday development is likely over much of west-central/northwest TX with expanding coverage across the remainder of northern TX, OK, and southern MO. Areas of elevated hail cannot be ruled out anywhere north of the front given strong deep-layer shear. Supercells with very large hail and perhaps a brief tornado prior to cold front surge are expected during the late afternoon over west-central TX south of the cold front, and perhaps as far north as the Red River as the low-level jet increases during the evening. Overnight, another round of storms will occur over western and central TX as the deeper cold front arrives coincident with the shortwave. Both damaging winds and embedded hail cores are expected with a linear storm mode. ..Jewell.. 04/18/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...1630 Update... A faster southward progression of a backdoor cold front across the Texas Panhandle as far south as US-70 has temporarily mitigated fire weather concerns across the area. However, some northeastward retreat and daytime mixing should allow dry southwest flow to return to portions of northeastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle supporting at least a brief period of Elevated fire weather conditions to emerge within this zone. The Critical fire weather threat will continue for much of southeastern New Mexico. Eastern extent of Elevated highlights were trimmed along the Florida Atlantic Coast as higher dewpoints/relative humidity accompany southeasterly onshore flow. Farther inland however, Elevated fire weather conditions expected with east-southeast winds of 10-15 mph and relative humidity dropping into the 35-40 percent range this afternoon amid increasingly dry fuels. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough initially in the Great Basin will move towards the Four Corners region today. A modest surface low in eastern New Mexico into West Texas will develop during the day. A cold front will continue to make southward progress into the southern Plains. ...New Mexico into West Texas... Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are again expected during the afternoon. Moderate mid-level flow across the Southwest and southern Plains and a modest surface low along the Texas/New Mexico border will drive 15-20 mph (up to 25 mph in the terrain) surface winds by the afternoon. RH will be slightly higher than Thursday on account of mid/upper-level clouds. Values of around 10% may occur, but will occur on a relatively local basis. 15-20% will be more common. The driest fuels will be in New Mexico and the Trans-Pecos. Farther east in the Texas Panhandle/South Plains, transitional/greening fuels will mitigate fire weather concerns even with similarly dry and windy conditions. ...Florida... Easterly winds of around 10 mph appear possible during the afternoon. RH of 25-35% can be expected along the western Peninsula. With dry fuels (current ERC data showing some locations above the 90th percentile), elevated fire weather is likely this afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...1630 Update... A faster southward progression of a backdoor cold front across the Texas Panhandle as far south as US-70 has temporarily mitigated fire weather concerns across the area. However, some northeastward retreat and daytime mixing should allow dry southwest flow to return to portions of northeastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle supporting at least a brief period of Elevated fire weather conditions to emerge within this zone. The Critical fire weather threat will continue for much of southeastern New Mexico. Eastern extent of Elevated highlights were trimmed along the Florida Atlantic Coast as higher dewpoints/relative humidity accompany southeasterly onshore flow. Farther inland however, Elevated fire weather conditions expected with east-southeast winds of 10-15 mph and relative humidity dropping into the 35-40 percent range this afternoon amid increasingly dry fuels. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough initially in the Great Basin will move towards the Four Corners region today. A modest surface low in eastern New Mexico into West Texas will develop during the day. A cold front will continue to make southward progress into the southern Plains. ...New Mexico into West Texas... Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are again expected during the afternoon. Moderate mid-level flow across the Southwest and southern Plains and a modest surface low along the Texas/New Mexico border will drive 15-20 mph (up to 25 mph in the terrain) surface winds by the afternoon. RH will be slightly higher than Thursday on account of mid/upper-level clouds. Values of around 10% may occur, but will occur on a relatively local basis. 15-20% will be more common. The driest fuels will be in New Mexico and the Trans-Pecos. Farther east in the Texas Panhandle/South Plains, transitional/greening fuels will mitigate fire weather concerns even with similarly dry and windy conditions. ...Florida... Easterly winds of around 10 mph appear possible during the afternoon. RH of 25-35% can be expected along the western Peninsula. With dry fuels (current ERC data showing some locations above the 90th percentile), elevated fire weather is likely this afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the southern Plains northeastward through the mid Mississippi Valley and southwestern Great Lakes, mainly from late afternoon into early Saturday morning. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts should be the main hazards, especially across the southern Plains where storms will be more concentrated. A few tornadoes also appear possible. ...Southern Plains to the Ozarks... Strong southwesterly mid to high-level flow will extend from the southern High Plains northeastward into the Great Lakes, downstream of a mid- to upper-level low over the Four Corners states. A cold front was analyzed from the Low Rolling Plains northeastward through central OK late this morning. This portion of the front will continue southeastward into the I-44 corridor but decelerate towards late afternoon. A dryline extends southward from the front over the TX Big Country. Despite widespread mid/high-level cloudiness, filtered heating of a moist/destabilizing airmass will likely result in a weakened cap by late afternoon. Initial supercell development should pose a threat for large to very large hail, potentially up to 2-3 inches in diameter. Model forecast hodographs and ample PW suggest a strong tendency towards upscale growth into an HP supercell and linear segment this evening from south-central OK northeastward towards the western part of the Ozark Plateau. Coincident with this expected convective mode evolution, an increase in the severe/damaging wind threat is anticipated. The threat for a few tornadoes remains apparent, especially across parts of OK along/south of the front, as favorable low-level shear will be present this evening where surface-based supercells and mesovortex potential may still exist. ...Lower MI to Mid Mississippi Valley... In wake of weakened thunderstorm activity across Lower MI, a warm sector will attempt to spread northward and destabilize across parts of the mid MS Valley and southern/central Great Lakes this afternoon. An upper trough will only slowly encroach on the Upper Midwest through late tonight. As a result, southwesterly flow aloft will be maintained and limited southeastward progression of a cold front is forecast. Model guidance continues to indicate surface-based thunderstorm development will be inhibited until peak heating, when frontal forcing and gradual erosion of the cap leads to isolated storms developing from MO northeastward towards the southwest Great Lakes. Uncertainty remains regarding timing, overall thunderstorm coverage, and the exact evolution of this activity. Nonetheless, strong shear through a deep layer and adequate buoyancy (due in part to steep mid-level lapse rates), will support organized thunderstorms. The stronger thunderstorms will probably pose a risk for severe hail and damaging winds. This severe threat may persist for much of the evening, and perhaps continuing into the early overnight hours. ..Smith/Thornton.. 04/18/2025 Read more