WW 0147 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0147 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 147 SEVERE TSTM TX 191920Z - 200300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 147 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 220 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwest and Southwest Texas * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 220 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase in the vicinity of stationary boundary extended across the region. Environmental conditions support discrete supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail up to 3 to 3.5". Several strong gusts are possible as well. Any supercells that persist within the warm sector could produce a tornado or two, but the overall tornado potential is expected to remain low through the afternoon. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 65 miles east of Dryden TX to 85 miles north northwest of Mineral Wells TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Mosier Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper low will be over the upper MS Valley Monday morning, with a trough extending southeast toward the OH Valley. This system will move across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast through Tuesday morning, losing amplitude as it flattens a ridge along the East Coast. To the west, a low-amplitude upper trough will move from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. A cold front associated with the Great Lakes system will extend from western NY/PA southward toward the TN Valley during the afternoon, and becoming stationary over the lower MS Valley. While scattered thunderstorms will be possible along the length of the boundary, severe chances appear low. Northern areas from OH into NY will experience more favorable lift in association with the upper wave to the west, but only weak instability with in a narrow axis is forecast. Farther south, shear will be very weak. Elsewhere, isolated storms are possible from MT during the day where lapse rates will be very steep beneath the upper trough. Activity may develop late night from the eastern Dakotas into southern MN with the aid of a developing low-level jet as well, and small hail cannot be ruled out with this activity with very steep midlevel lapse rates and minimal melting. ..Jewell.. 04/19/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Apr 19 17:47:01 UTC 2025.

MD 0482 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN NEW YORK
Mesoscale Discussion 0482 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Areas affected...western and central Pennsylvania and adjacent southern New York Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 191716Z - 191915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Some convective intensification is forecast this afternoon, accompanied by gusty winds and some potential for locally severe/damaging gusts. Need for WW issuance appears unlikely at this time, but will we will monitor convective evolution. DISCUSSION...Meager instability is indicated across the central Appalachians area early this afternoon, though sparse cloud cover across western and central Pennsylvania and into adjacent southern New York will aid in gradual/modest destabilization over the next few hours. A band of thunderstorms is now crossing the Pennsylvania/Ohio border, moving rapidly east-northeastward at around 60 kt. This storm motion is being supported by quasi-unidirectional west-southwesterly flow through the mid troposphere, increasing with height to around 50 kt at 2km and around 90kt at 4km. The strength of the flow field and associated speed of storm motion suggests potential for locally strong wind gusts -- particularly with any appreciable destabilization. However, with generally weak CAPE likely to remain somewhat of a limiting factor, WW issuance is currently not anticipated. ..Goss/Mosier.. 04/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE... LAT...LON 40508087 41318043 42327825 42467656 41037663 40717767 40408021 40508087 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF MISSOURI...NORTHERN ARKANSAS...AND FAR WESTERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into the lower Missouri and middle Mississippi Valleys. The greatest damaging wind and tornado potential will be over portions of northern Arkansas into Missouri and far west-central Illinois. ...MO...AR...Portions of surrounding states... A compact shortwave trough will eject northeastward out of the TX Panhandle Sunday morning and into IA by evening. An intense leading speed max will accompany this wave with strong cooling aloft over OK, northwest AR, MO and IA. A surface low will deepen as it develops northward out of OK and into IA as well. The cold front will move across far eastern KS and OK and into AR and MO by mid afternoon, with a warm front moving north and extending from northern MO into central IL/IN/OH by 00Z. Moderate southerly winds in the low levels will aid moisture advection with low 60s F dewpoints behind the warm front. Early day rain and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing over MO and IL in association with the advancing warm front. Areas of heating will occur behind this activity, and ahead of the approaching cold front with up to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE developing. Storms will form by early afternoon over far eastern KS and OK, with an elongated and partially broken line of supercells from the IA/MO border into AR through 00Z. Wind profiles will favor supercells as the primary storm mode along the length of the cold front, with the most likely area for tornadoes from northern AR into central MO where instability may be strongest. Farther north, cooler midlevel temperatures and stronger low-level shear may still support supercells and tornado risk despite weaker instability. The severe threat will peak during the afternoon and early evening as the upper system pulls north of the area, however, at least isolated severe storms may persist into the night across IL and southward along the MS River. ..Jewell.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF MISSOURI...NORTHERN ARKANSAS...AND FAR WESTERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into the lower Missouri and middle Mississippi Valleys. The greatest damaging wind and tornado potential will be over portions of northern Arkansas into Missouri and far west-central Illinois. ...MO...AR...Portions of surrounding states... A compact shortwave trough will eject northeastward out of the TX Panhandle Sunday morning and into IA by evening. An intense leading speed max will accompany this wave with strong cooling aloft over OK, northwest AR, MO and IA. A surface low will deepen as it develops northward out of OK and into IA as well. The cold front will move across far eastern KS and OK and into AR and MO by mid afternoon, with a warm front moving north and extending from northern MO into central IL/IN/OH by 00Z. Moderate southerly winds in the low levels will aid moisture advection with low 60s F dewpoints behind the warm front. Early day rain and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing over MO and IL in association with the advancing warm front. Areas of heating will occur behind this activity, and ahead of the approaching cold front with up to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE developing. Storms will form by early afternoon over far eastern KS and OK, with an elongated and partially broken line of supercells from the IA/MO border into AR through 00Z. Wind profiles will favor supercells as the primary storm mode along the length of the cold front, with the most likely area for tornadoes from northern AR into central MO where instability may be strongest. Farther north, cooler midlevel temperatures and stronger low-level shear may still support supercells and tornado risk despite weaker instability. The severe threat will peak during the afternoon and early evening as the upper system pulls north of the area, however, at least isolated severe storms may persist into the night across IL and southward along the MS River. ..Jewell.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...17z Update... The prior outlook remains largely unchanged. Minimal trimming was made to the critical area where the cold front has advanced farther south in Southwest TX. Strong heating will still allow for a few hours of dry/wind conditions over this area through the afternoon. Otherwise, see the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 04/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0221 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies today, encouraging surface cyclone development over the southern Plains. Dry westerly downslope flow across southeast New Mexico into the Trans Pecos region of Texas is expected by afternoon, with sustained surface winds reaching 20-25 mph amid 10-15 percent RH. Given that very dry fuels are also present over the region, Critical highlights have been introduced. Meanwhile, dry southeasterly flow is likely across western portions of the Florida Peninsula this afternoon. 10-15 mph sustained wind speeds may overlap with 25-35 percent RH for several hours, necessitating Elevated highlights given dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely from parts of Texas into southern Missouri, mainly this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes all appear possible. Isolated to scattered damaging winds may also occur across portions of the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. ...Southern Plains to the Ozarks... Morning surface analysis places a cold front from just south of MAF (in west Texas) northeastward through ARG (in northeast AR). Widespread showers and occasional thunderstorms are currently ongoing north of this front across OK and AR, and associated outflow is still aiding in more eastward/southeastward progression of this boundary across northern/central AR. This eastward/southeastward progression is expected to slow with time as additional surface cyclogenesis occurs across west TX ahead of a deep shortwave trough progressing across Southwest. Low-level southerly/southeasterly flow will persist south of the stalling boundary, leading to a sharpening of the gradient through this afternoon/evening. By this afternoon, dewpoints are expected to be in mid 60s along this boundary from southwest TX into the Mid-South. This low-level moisture combined with modest heating will result in airmass destabilization. As large-scale ascent spreads eastward over the southern High Plains, robust thunderstorms will likely develop by mid afternoon along/near the front, and a dryline extending southward across west TX into northern Mexico. Strong deep-layer shear around 50-70 kt will support updraft organization with convection that develops along/near the front and dryline this afternoon. An initial supercell mode is anticipated, with large hail as the primary risk. Storms will likely remain elevated from northwest TX into the Ozarks, but surface-based storms are more likely across southwest TX. Here, some very large hail around 2-3 inches in diameter is possible. Strong outflow is possible as well. By early evening, convective mode should become messier as a gradually strengthening low-level jet and the front encourage thunderstorm interactions/mergers. Still, a continued large hail and damaging wind threat will likely persist for much of the evening. The strengthening low-level jet and resultant increase in low-level shear could also support some threat for a few tornadoes with any supercells/clusters that can remain surface based this evening. Additionally, another round of storms appears likely across Permian Basin/southwest TX late this evening as the shortwave trough ejects into the southern High Plains. These storms should have a more linear orientation, with damaging gusts as the primary risk as they progress eastward toward central TX late tonight/early tomorrow. ...Mid Mississippi/Ohio Valleys to the Northeast... Current surface analysis places a cold front extending southwestward from central Ontario through far southern IL and far southeast MO. Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing in the vicinity of this front, with much of this activity elevated behind the front across the Mid MS and OH Valleys where the deep-layer flow is more parallel to the boundary. A trend towards a more surface-based structure is anticipated this afternoon as daytime heating promotes modest airmass destabilization ahead of the front and the flow become more orthogonal to the boundary, particularly across the Upper OH Valley and Northeast. Mid-level flow is expected to strengthen this afternoon and evening, and despite modest buoyancy, deep-layer shear will be strong to support linear structures capable of damaging gusts, especially as convection that develops along the front becomes more linear with time. Overall storm coverage is expected to be high enough to merit 15% wind probabilities along the front into southern NY. ..Mosier/Halbert.. 04/19/2025 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Apr 19 13:01:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely from parts of Texas into southern Missouri, mainly this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes all appear possible. Isolated to scattered damaging winds may also occur across portions of the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. ...Southern Plains to the Ozarks... Multiple bands/clusters of convection are ongoing this morning from parts of eastern OK northeastward to the Ozarks and mid MS Valley. Much of this activity should remain elevated, with isolated hail/wind potential in the short term. In the wake of these thunderstorms, an upper trough/low will eject from the Southwest across the southern High Plains through the period. A front should generally remain stalled across the southern Plains and towards the Ozarks today, as surface cyclogenesis occurs over far west TX. As large-scale ascent spreads eastward over the southern High Plains, additional robust thunderstorms will likely develop by mid afternoon along/near the front, and a dryline extending southward across west TX into northern Mexico. Daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass, combined with the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates, are expected to support moderate instability across the warm sector, with peak MLCAPE values potentially reaching up to 1500-2500 J/kg. Strong deep-layer shear around 50-70 kt will support intense updraft organization with convection that develops along/near the front and dryline this afternoon. Initial supercells will likely pose a threat for very large hail around 2-3 inches in diameter, along with damaging winds. By early evening, convective mode should become messier as a gradually strengthening low-level jet and the front encourage thunderstorm interactions/mergers. Still, a continued large hail and damaging wind threat will likely persist for much of the evening. Strengthening low-level shear in tandem with the increasing low-level jet should also support some threat for a few tornadoes with any supercells/clusters that can remain surface based this evening. Given increased confidence in multiple intense supercells developing this afternoon, an Enhanced Risk has been introduced across parts of west-central to western north TX with this update. ...Mid Mississippi/Ohio Valleys to the Northeast... Instability is expected to remain fairly weak along/ahead of the surface front extending from southern MO across the OH Valley and into the Northeast. Even so, strong west-southwesterly winds through low/mid-levels may support a threat for isolated to scattered severe/damaging winds as the boundary layer gradually destabilizes through the day. Multiple ongoing clusters of elevated convection from the Ozarks to the mid MS and lower OH Valleys may become surface based over the next several hours with filtered daytime heating. Have therefore expanded the Slight Risk for damaging winds northeastward across these areas in a narrow zone along/near the front. A rather strong mid-level jet will overspread the northern Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast today, as an upper trough develops eastward over the Great Lakes and eastern Canada. Although low-level moisture is forecast to remain limited, cold temperatures aloft should aid in modest destabilization by early afternoon in a narrow corridor along/ahead of the eastward-moving cold front. Deep-layer shear will be strong enough to conditionally support supercells, although there should be a tendency for convection that develops along the front to become more linear with time. Based on recent guidance trends, have expanded the Marginal Risk for hail/damaging wind potential eastward across these areas. Greater severe wind probabilities may be needed if confidence increases in a organized cluster developing. ..Gleason/Broyles.. 04/19/2025 Read more

MD 0481 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0481 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0526 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Areas affected...Southeast Missouri...Southern Illinois...Southwest Indiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 191026Z - 191300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...A threat for severe wind gusts will likely continue across parts of southeast Missouri, and may affect parts of southern Illinois and southwest Indiana later this morning. New watch issuance may be needed. DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar imagery from St. Louis shows a short bowing line segment moving through southeast Missouri. The line segment is located near a boundary along the western edge of a moist airmass, where the RAP has MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg. The line is also located near the entrance region of an 80 to 90 knot mid-level speed max. This feature is contributing to lift and strong deep-layer shear. RAP forecast soundings in southeast Missouri have 0-6 km shear near 70 knots, with 40 knots of flow about 700 meters above ground level. This, combined with a forward speed of about 50 knots, suggest the bowing line segment will be associated with severe gusts. As the line moves northeastward across southeast Missouri and into southern Illinois, wind gusts exceeding 70 mph will be possible. If the line can intensify, then watch issuance would become necessary. ..Broyles/Gleason.. 04/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF... LAT...LON 37949095 37639118 37409116 37199101 37089068 37109040 37378927 38038745 38338678 38798646 39268665 39568690 39668714 39648768 39488818 39208875 38419026 37949095 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 0479 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 146... FOR WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0479 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Areas affected...West-central and North Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 146... Valid 190721Z - 190915Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 146 continues. SUMMARY...A severe threat will likely continue across west-central Texas over the next couple of hours. Large hail and severe gusts will the primary threats, but a tornado will also be possible. The threat may gradually move east-northeastward into parts of central and north-central Texas over the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar from San Angelo shows a broken line of organized thunderstorms, with a few of the storms being severe. The line is located within strong southwest flow aloft, and is to the east of a dryline. The RAP has a corridor of moderate instability across central Texas, where MUCAPE is estimated in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range. The storms are currently located to the west of this corridor, but should gradually move toward the western edge of the stronger instability over the next few hours. This will help maintain convective development. RAP forecast soundings across west-central Texas have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This will likely continue to support supercells with large hail. The more intense cores could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. Isolated severe gusts, along with a tornado will also be possible. ..Broyles.. 04/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 29950046 29880098 29950124 30180144 30470142 30900108 32499965 32929929 33229887 33299855 33259829 33199809 32969791 32529792 31939830 31089910 30319976 29950046 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 0480 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN INDIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0480 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Areas affected...Southeast Illinois...Southern Indiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 190805Z - 191000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An isolated potential for strong gusts will likely continue over the next hour or two. The threat should be too marginal for weather watch issuance. DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar from St. Louis shows a short bowing line segment over southeast Illinois. The storm is located within a narrow corridor of low-level moisture to the southeast of a cold front. Aloft, a 80 to 90 knot mid-level speed max is analyzed by the RAP to the southwest of the line segment. This mid-level jet appears to be providing lift and strong deep-layer shear sufficient for a marginal severe threat. As the short line segment moves eastward, isolated strong gusts will be possible. Instability towards the east is considerably weaker, suggesting that the cell should gradually ramp down in intensity over time. ..Broyles/Gleason.. 04/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX... LAT...LON 39388790 39488709 39508599 39288557 38958555 38678602 38518709 38398826 38488875 38728894 38978895 39238862 39388790 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0146 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 146 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WSW JCT TO 45 S ABI TO 45 W MWL. ..BROYLES..04/19/25 ATTN...WFO...SJT...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 146 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC049-083-093-095-133-143-193-237-267-307-319-327-333-363-411- 429-503-190940- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN COLEMAN COMANCHE CONCHO EASTLAND ERATH HAMILTON JACK KIMBLE MCCULLOCH MASON MENARD MILLS PALO PINTO SAN SABA STEPHENS YOUNG THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 146 SEVERE TSTM TX 190500Z - 191200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 146 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of West-Central Texas * Effective this Saturday morning from Midnight until 700 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to increase overnight across the Edwards Plateau and vicinity, with large hail and damaging winds as the primary severe risks. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles east northeast of Abilene TX to 50 miles west southwest of Junction TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 143...WW 144...WW 145... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23030. ...Guyer Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Days 4-6/Tue-Thu -- Southern Plains... A low-amplitude west/southwesterly mid/upper flow pattern will prevail Days 4-6/Tue-Thu. South/southeasterly low-level flow across the western Gulf into the southern Plains will allow for northward moisture transport and daily diurnal destabilization. In the absence of any stronger shortwave troughs moving through the weak west/southwesterly flow regime, severe potential is uncertain and will likely be driven by mesoscale/local processes, precluding 15 percent probabilities at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Days 4-6/Tue-Thu -- Southern Plains... A low-amplitude west/southwesterly mid/upper flow pattern will prevail Days 4-6/Tue-Thu. South/southeasterly low-level flow across the western Gulf into the southern Plains will allow for northward moisture transport and daily diurnal destabilization. In the absence of any stronger shortwave troughs moving through the weak west/southwesterly flow regime, severe potential is uncertain and will likely be driven by mesoscale/local processes, precluding 15 percent probabilities at this time. Read more

WW 0143 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 143 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW RKR TO 20 NE GMJ TO 20 ESE SGF TO 30 SE VIH TO 35 WNW POF. ..BROYLES..04/19/25 ATTN...WFO...TSA...LZK...SGF...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 143 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC005-007-009-015-033-087-089-101-143-190940- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAXTER BENTON BOONE CARROLL CRAWFORD MADISON MARION NEWTON WASHINGTON MOC009-043-065-067-091-119-153-203-209-213-215-229-190940- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRY CHRISTIAN DENT DOUGLAS HOWELL MCDONALD OZARK SHANNON STONE TANEY TEXAS WRIGHT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 143 SEVERE TSTM AR MO OK 190200Z - 190800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 143 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 900 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Arkansas Southern and Eastern Missouri Eastern Oklahoma * Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 900 PM until 300 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter likely Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to increase across the region through the remainder of the evening into the overnight. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles north northwest of Mcalester OK to 35 miles north of Farmington MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23030. ...Guyer Read more