SPC Tornado Watch 155
WW 155 TORNADO IA IL KY MO 202040Z - 210400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 155 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 340 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of southeastern Iowa western and centrl Illinois far western Kentucky eastern Missouri * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 340 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Ongoing strong/severe thunderstorms are forecast to continue moving eastward/northeastward across Missouri this afternoon and evening, spreading into parts of southeastern Iowa and Illinois over the next several hours. Along with some hail risk, damaging wind gusts are expected, along with potential for tornadoes -- a couple of which could be strong. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles north northeast of Burlington IA to 15 miles east southeast of Poplar Bluff MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 154... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23040. ...Goss Read more
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 155 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 340 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of southeastern Iowa western and centrl Illinois far western Kentucky eastern Missouri * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 340 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Ongoing strong/severe thunderstorms are forecast to continue moving eastward/northeastward across Missouri this afternoon and evening, spreading into parts of southeastern Iowa and Illinois over the next several hours. Along with some hail risk, damaging wind gusts are expected, along with potential for tornadoes -- a couple of which could be strong. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles north northeast of Burlington IA to 15 miles east southeast of Poplar Bluff MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 154... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23040. ...Goss Read more
SPC Tornado Watch 154 Status Reports
WW 0154 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 154 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S PRX TO 25 WSW DEQ TO 20 NNE DEQ TO 30 ESE RKR TO 5 N FYV TO 15 WNW UMN TO 30 SE OJC. ..WENDT..04/20/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SHV...SGF...EAX...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 154 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC005-009-015-019-023-027-029-039-045-047-049-051-053-057-059- 061-065-071-073-081-083-087-089-091-097-099-101-103-105-109-113- 115-119-125-127-129-133-137-141-149-202140- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAXTER BOONE CARROLL CLARK CLEBURNE COLUMBIA CONWAY DALLAS FAULKNER FRANKLIN FULTON GARLAND GRANT HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING HOWARD IZARD JOHNSON LAFAYETTE LITTLE RIVER LOGAN MADISON MARION MILLER MONTGOMERY NEVADA NEWTON OUACHITA PERRY PIKE POLK POPE PULASKI SALINE SCOTT SEARCY SEVIER STONE VAN BUREN YELL LAC015-017-119-202140- Read more
STATUS REPORT ON WW 154 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S PRX TO 25 WSW DEQ TO 20 NNE DEQ TO 30 ESE RKR TO 5 N FYV TO 15 WNW UMN TO 30 SE OJC. ..WENDT..04/20/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SHV...SGF...EAX...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 154 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC005-009-015-019-023-027-029-039-045-047-049-051-053-057-059- 061-065-071-073-081-083-087-089-091-097-099-101-103-105-109-113- 115-119-125-127-129-133-137-141-149-202140- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAXTER BOONE CARROLL CLARK CLEBURNE COLUMBIA CONWAY DALLAS FAULKNER FRANKLIN FULTON GARLAND GRANT HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING HOWARD IZARD JOHNSON LAFAYETTE LITTLE RIVER LOGAN MADISON MARION MILLER MONTGOMERY NEVADA NEWTON OUACHITA PERRY PIKE POLK POPE PULASKI SALINE SCOTT SEARCY SEVIER STONE VAN BUREN YELL LAC015-017-119-202140- Read more
SPC Tornado Watch 154
WW 154 TORNADO AR KS LA MO OK TX 201700Z - 210000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 154 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of western and central Arkansas southeastern Kansas northwestern Louisiana central and southern Missouri eastern Oklahoma far northeastern Texas * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from NOON until 700 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A steady increase in coverage and intensity of thunderstorms is expected to occur over the next several hours, with severe-weather potential evolving from eastern Oklahoma and the Arklatex region northward into Missouri. Along with risk for fairly widespread damaging wind gusts and hail, several tornadoes are expected -- including potential for a few that are strong/longer-lived. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles north of Springfield MO to 25 miles west of Texarkana AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23040. ...Goss Read more
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 154 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of western and central Arkansas southeastern Kansas northwestern Louisiana central and southern Missouri eastern Oklahoma far northeastern Texas * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from NOON until 700 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A steady increase in coverage and intensity of thunderstorms is expected to occur over the next several hours, with severe-weather potential evolving from eastern Oklahoma and the Arklatex region northward into Missouri. Along with risk for fairly widespread damaging wind gusts and hail, several tornadoes are expected -- including potential for a few that are strong/longer-lived. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles north of Springfield MO to 25 miles west of Texarkana AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23040. ...Goss Read more
SPC Apr 20, 2025 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today across parts of the ArkLaTex into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley, mainly this afternoon and evening. The best corridor for tornadoes (some of which could be strong) and scattered to numerous damaging winds should exist from central/northern Arkansas into Missouri. ...20z Update.. A broken line of thunderstorm activity continues near the surface low in northeastern OK/southeastern KS and along an attendant surface cold front extending from eastern OK southward into northeastern Texas/southern Arkansas. This activity is expected to continue to shift north and eastward through time as the low tracks to the east through the afternoon and evening. Storm intensity has been increasing over the last couple of hours, owing to daytime heating ahead of the front, where MLCAPE around 500-1500 J/kg is observed in surface objective analysis. VAD profiles across eastern Arkansas northward into Missouri show strong low-level shear in place, with large curved hodographs and rich low-level SRH. This trend will continue with the strengthening low-level jet lifting through the Mississippi Valley into the Midwest this evening, supporting risk for embedded supercells and tornadoes, a few of which may be strong. In addition to the tornado threat, bowing structures along the front will support risk for damaging winds. See MCD#502 and MCD#504 for more information. Thunderstorm coverage will increase along the southern portion of the front in central/eastern Texas into Louisiana through the afternoon and evening. This region is somewhat removed from the area of greater low and mid-level flow, which will keep severe potential more limited. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton/Goss.. 04/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... A compact upper low currently moving into western Oklahoma will shift quickly northeastward this afternoon and tonight, crossing eastern Kansas and western Missouri this evening and then continuing northeastward across Iowa and into Wisconsin tonight. Fast southwesterly flow aloft will exist in advance of this system, within the tight height gradient between this feature and the persistent ridge centered over the Southeast. At the surface, a developing low analyzed over western Oklahoma at 15Z is forecast to progress northeastward across southeastern Kansas and Missouri through the afternoon, and then should continue northward toward -- and eventually into -- southern Wisconsin by early Monday morning. While a warm front lifts northward across the Mid Mississippi Valley/Midwest, a cold front trailing from the low will sweep eastward into/across Missouri and Arkansas this afternoon and evening, and then across the Mid and Lower Mississippi Valleys through the end of the period. ...Northeastern Texas northeastward to the western Illinois vicinity... An expansive area of multi-level cloud cover, along with ongoing convection, is evident across western and northern portions of the risk area late this morning, which continues to retard more substantial heating at this point. With that said, some breaks in the clouds are evident per recent visible imagery as far west as eastern Oklahoma, with thinning cloud cover with eastward/northeastward extent into Arkansas and the Ozarks. As the surface low over Oklahoma deepens through the day in tandem with the advance of the upper low, northward advance of the warm front with time will allow a moist boundary layer to likewise overspread much of Missouri and Illinois through sunset. This, combined with at least modest heating across portions of the area should yield an amply unstable environment (500 to near 1500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE) to gradually evolve -- supporting a steady increase in convective coverage and intensity this afternoon. In contrast to the rather modest thermodynamic environment, a very favorable low-level and deep-layer wind field is evident, with respect to development of organized/rotating storms. An 80 kt mid-level jet will spread northeastward across the risk area with time, atop a 50-plus kt low-level jet. This will support vigorous updraft evolution, with all-hazards severe risk evolving as a result. At this time, it remains apparent that tornado potential -- including risk for a couple of strong tornadoes -- should maximize across the Ozarks, and areas just north and south, as surface winds back to southeasterly ahead of the deepening/advancing surface low. The primary risk should evolve with an anticipated, broken band of storms within the cold-frontal zone, including embedded supercells. Along with the tornado potential, fairly widespread coverage of damaging wind gusts is also expected, as complex, LEWP/bow-type structures are expected within the band of storms, as convection advances eastward across Missouri and Arkansas toward the Mississippi Valley through the afternoon and into the evening hours. Severe risk is expected to expand as far north as southeastern Iowa and adjacent western Illinois this evening, where weaker instability is expected, and as far south as eastern Texas where a weaker wind field with southward extent should limit severe potential on the southern fringe. Risk should very gradually diminish overnight as convection shifts eastward across the Mid-Mississippi Valley. Read more
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today across parts of the ArkLaTex into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley, mainly this afternoon and evening. The best corridor for tornadoes (some of which could be strong) and scattered to numerous damaging winds should exist from central/northern Arkansas into Missouri. ...20z Update.. A broken line of thunderstorm activity continues near the surface low in northeastern OK/southeastern KS and along an attendant surface cold front extending from eastern OK southward into northeastern Texas/southern Arkansas. This activity is expected to continue to shift north and eastward through time as the low tracks to the east through the afternoon and evening. Storm intensity has been increasing over the last couple of hours, owing to daytime heating ahead of the front, where MLCAPE around 500-1500 J/kg is observed in surface objective analysis. VAD profiles across eastern Arkansas northward into Missouri show strong low-level shear in place, with large curved hodographs and rich low-level SRH. This trend will continue with the strengthening low-level jet lifting through the Mississippi Valley into the Midwest this evening, supporting risk for embedded supercells and tornadoes, a few of which may be strong. In addition to the tornado threat, bowing structures along the front will support risk for damaging winds. See MCD#502 and MCD#504 for more information. Thunderstorm coverage will increase along the southern portion of the front in central/eastern Texas into Louisiana through the afternoon and evening. This region is somewhat removed from the area of greater low and mid-level flow, which will keep severe potential more limited. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton/Goss.. 04/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... A compact upper low currently moving into western Oklahoma will shift quickly northeastward this afternoon and tonight, crossing eastern Kansas and western Missouri this evening and then continuing northeastward across Iowa and into Wisconsin tonight. Fast southwesterly flow aloft will exist in advance of this system, within the tight height gradient between this feature and the persistent ridge centered over the Southeast. At the surface, a developing low analyzed over western Oklahoma at 15Z is forecast to progress northeastward across southeastern Kansas and Missouri through the afternoon, and then should continue northward toward -- and eventually into -- southern Wisconsin by early Monday morning. While a warm front lifts northward across the Mid Mississippi Valley/Midwest, a cold front trailing from the low will sweep eastward into/across Missouri and Arkansas this afternoon and evening, and then across the Mid and Lower Mississippi Valleys through the end of the period. ...Northeastern Texas northeastward to the western Illinois vicinity... An expansive area of multi-level cloud cover, along with ongoing convection, is evident across western and northern portions of the risk area late this morning, which continues to retard more substantial heating at this point. With that said, some breaks in the clouds are evident per recent visible imagery as far west as eastern Oklahoma, with thinning cloud cover with eastward/northeastward extent into Arkansas and the Ozarks. As the surface low over Oklahoma deepens through the day in tandem with the advance of the upper low, northward advance of the warm front with time will allow a moist boundary layer to likewise overspread much of Missouri and Illinois through sunset. This, combined with at least modest heating across portions of the area should yield an amply unstable environment (500 to near 1500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE) to gradually evolve -- supporting a steady increase in convective coverage and intensity this afternoon. In contrast to the rather modest thermodynamic environment, a very favorable low-level and deep-layer wind field is evident, with respect to development of organized/rotating storms. An 80 kt mid-level jet will spread northeastward across the risk area with time, atop a 50-plus kt low-level jet. This will support vigorous updraft evolution, with all-hazards severe risk evolving as a result. At this time, it remains apparent that tornado potential -- including risk for a couple of strong tornadoes -- should maximize across the Ozarks, and areas just north and south, as surface winds back to southeasterly ahead of the deepening/advancing surface low. The primary risk should evolve with an anticipated, broken band of storms within the cold-frontal zone, including embedded supercells. Along with the tornado potential, fairly widespread coverage of damaging wind gusts is also expected, as complex, LEWP/bow-type structures are expected within the band of storms, as convection advances eastward across Missouri and Arkansas toward the Mississippi Valley through the afternoon and into the evening hours. Severe risk is expected to expand as far north as southeastern Iowa and adjacent western Illinois this evening, where weaker instability is expected, and as far south as eastern Texas where a weaker wind field with southward extent should limit severe potential on the southern fringe. Risk should very gradually diminish overnight as convection shifts eastward across the Mid-Mississippi Valley. Read more
SPC Apr 20, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the southern Plains. ...Synopsis... Modest west-southwesterly flow is forecast from the Southwest to the southern Plains on Tuesday with a stronger mid-level jet across the northern Plains and a sharpening trough in the Pacific Northwest. A weak mid-level shortwave trough (indicated by most guidance) is forecast to cross New Mexico during the afternoon which would result in a sharpening dryline and perhaps some lee cyclogenesis. ...Southern High Plains into southern Kansas... Low-level moisture advection and strong heating across the southern High Plains will lead to moderate to strong destabilization ahead of the dryline. As this airmass becomes uncapped by early to mid-afternoon and ascent increases ahead of the approaching mid-level shortwave trough, expect scattered thunderstorm development. A deeply mixed boundary layer and 25 to 35 knots of shear will support supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. Storms will likely congeal into an MCS by later in the evening as the low-level jet strengthens with some severe wind threat which could continue into the overnight hours. A remnant frontal boundary will likely be in place across southern Kansas Tuesday afternoon which will likely be an additional focus for potential severe storms Tuesday afternoon. Moisture/instability remains more questionable across southern Kansas, and shear is not forecast to be quite as strong amid somewhat veered low-level flow ahead of the front. Therefore, a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been maintained at this time. ...Central Iowa to southern Wisconsin and Northern Illinois... Moisture recovery along a warm frontal zone may lead to some weak instability from eastern Iowa into southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois. Sustained isentropic ascent may provide sufficient forcing for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development through the day. Despite the lack of moisture, cool temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates may support the potential for isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 04/20/2025 Read more
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the southern Plains. ...Synopsis... Modest west-southwesterly flow is forecast from the Southwest to the southern Plains on Tuesday with a stronger mid-level jet across the northern Plains and a sharpening trough in the Pacific Northwest. A weak mid-level shortwave trough (indicated by most guidance) is forecast to cross New Mexico during the afternoon which would result in a sharpening dryline and perhaps some lee cyclogenesis. ...Southern High Plains into southern Kansas... Low-level moisture advection and strong heating across the southern High Plains will lead to moderate to strong destabilization ahead of the dryline. As this airmass becomes uncapped by early to mid-afternoon and ascent increases ahead of the approaching mid-level shortwave trough, expect scattered thunderstorm development. A deeply mixed boundary layer and 25 to 35 knots of shear will support supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. Storms will likely congeal into an MCS by later in the evening as the low-level jet strengthens with some severe wind threat which could continue into the overnight hours. A remnant frontal boundary will likely be in place across southern Kansas Tuesday afternoon which will likely be an additional focus for potential severe storms Tuesday afternoon. Moisture/instability remains more questionable across southern Kansas, and shear is not forecast to be quite as strong amid somewhat veered low-level flow ahead of the front. Therefore, a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been maintained at this time. ...Central Iowa to southern Wisconsin and Northern Illinois... Moisture recovery along a warm frontal zone may lead to some weak instability from eastern Iowa into southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois. Sustained isentropic ascent may provide sufficient forcing for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development through the day. Despite the lack of moisture, cool temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates may support the potential for isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 04/20/2025 Read more
SPC Apr 20, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the southern Plains. ...Synopsis... Modest west-southwesterly flow is forecast from the Southwest to the southern Plains on Tuesday with a stronger mid-level jet across the northern Plains and a sharpening trough in the Pacific Northwest. A weak mid-level shortwave trough (indicated by most guidance) is forecast to cross New Mexico during the afternoon which would result in a sharpening dryline and perhaps some lee cyclogenesis. ...Southern High Plains into southern Kansas... Low-level moisture advection and strong heating across the southern High Plains will lead to moderate to strong destabilization ahead of the dryline. As this airmass becomes uncapped by early to mid-afternoon and ascent increases ahead of the approaching mid-level shortwave trough, expect scattered thunderstorm development. A deeply mixed boundary layer and 25 to 35 knots of shear will support supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. Storms will likely congeal into an MCS by later in the evening as the low-level jet strengthens with some severe wind threat which could continue into the overnight hours. A remnant frontal boundary will likely be in place across southern Kansas Tuesday afternoon which will likely be an additional focus for potential severe storms Tuesday afternoon. Moisture/instability remains more questionable across southern Kansas, and shear is not forecast to be quite as strong amid somewhat veered low-level flow ahead of the front. Therefore, a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been maintained at this time. ...Central Iowa to southern Wisconsin and Northern Illinois... Moisture recovery along a warm frontal zone may lead to some weak instability from eastern Iowa into southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois. Sustained isentropic ascent may provide sufficient forcing for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development through the day. Despite the lack of moisture, cool temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates may support the potential for isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 04/20/2025 Read more
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the southern Plains. ...Synopsis... Modest west-southwesterly flow is forecast from the Southwest to the southern Plains on Tuesday with a stronger mid-level jet across the northern Plains and a sharpening trough in the Pacific Northwest. A weak mid-level shortwave trough (indicated by most guidance) is forecast to cross New Mexico during the afternoon which would result in a sharpening dryline and perhaps some lee cyclogenesis. ...Southern High Plains into southern Kansas... Low-level moisture advection and strong heating across the southern High Plains will lead to moderate to strong destabilization ahead of the dryline. As this airmass becomes uncapped by early to mid-afternoon and ascent increases ahead of the approaching mid-level shortwave trough, expect scattered thunderstorm development. A deeply mixed boundary layer and 25 to 35 knots of shear will support supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. Storms will likely congeal into an MCS by later in the evening as the low-level jet strengthens with some severe wind threat which could continue into the overnight hours. A remnant frontal boundary will likely be in place across southern Kansas Tuesday afternoon which will likely be an additional focus for potential severe storms Tuesday afternoon. Moisture/instability remains more questionable across southern Kansas, and shear is not forecast to be quite as strong amid somewhat veered low-level flow ahead of the front. Therefore, a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been maintained at this time. ...Central Iowa to southern Wisconsin and Northern Illinois... Moisture recovery along a warm frontal zone may lead to some weak instability from eastern Iowa into southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois. Sustained isentropic ascent may provide sufficient forcing for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development through the day. Despite the lack of moisture, cool temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates may support the potential for isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 04/20/2025 Read more
SPC MD 502
MD 0502 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR EASTERN MISSOURI INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 0502 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Areas affected...Eastern Missouri into western Illinois and far southeastern Iowa Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 201920Z - 202115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A tornado watch will be forthcoming for portions of eastern Missouri into western Illinois and far southeastern Iowa, as a warm frontal boundary continues to lift northward out of central Missouri. DISCUSSION...Breaks in cloud cover, along with a northward-lifting surface warm frontal boundary, have resulted in continued destabilization across eastern Missouri into western Illinois. With mixed-layer CAPE forecast to exceed 1000 J/kg in the presence of strong wind shear (and strong curvature of the low-level hodograph in the vicinity of the front), the tornado threat is expected to increase this afternoon into the evening hours. Ongoing storms along the MO/KS/OK borders are forecast to continue north and east into the new watch area, with supercells embedded within a largely linear complex. Any embedded supercells (especially any within the vicinity of the warm front), as well as any pre-frontal storms, will have access to an environment characterized by strong low-level shear/streamwise vorticity supportive of tornado development. Current VAD wind profiles from KLSX show 200 m^2/s^2 of 0-500m storm relative helicity -- nearly double what is shown in the current SPC Mesoanalysis. Given the environmental support for tornadoes, some of which may be strong, a tornado watch is anticipated within the next hour or two. ..Halbert/Goss.. 04/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX... LAT...LON 41249043 41119012 40788991 40498976 39178955 38668947 38138943 37538936 37258941 36988946 36868967 36749007 36709052 36679128 36699176 36819216 36939224 37269227 38759232 39489239 40199248 40619251 41139238 41309216 41289125 41249043 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more
Mesoscale Discussion 0502 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Areas affected...Eastern Missouri into western Illinois and far southeastern Iowa Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 201920Z - 202115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A tornado watch will be forthcoming for portions of eastern Missouri into western Illinois and far southeastern Iowa, as a warm frontal boundary continues to lift northward out of central Missouri. DISCUSSION...Breaks in cloud cover, along with a northward-lifting surface warm frontal boundary, have resulted in continued destabilization across eastern Missouri into western Illinois. With mixed-layer CAPE forecast to exceed 1000 J/kg in the presence of strong wind shear (and strong curvature of the low-level hodograph in the vicinity of the front), the tornado threat is expected to increase this afternoon into the evening hours. Ongoing storms along the MO/KS/OK borders are forecast to continue north and east into the new watch area, with supercells embedded within a largely linear complex. Any embedded supercells (especially any within the vicinity of the warm front), as well as any pre-frontal storms, will have access to an environment characterized by strong low-level shear/streamwise vorticity supportive of tornado development. Current VAD wind profiles from KLSX show 200 m^2/s^2 of 0-500m storm relative helicity -- nearly double what is shown in the current SPC Mesoanalysis. Given the environmental support for tornadoes, some of which may be strong, a tornado watch is anticipated within the next hour or two. ..Halbert/Goss.. 04/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX... LAT...LON 41249043 41119012 40788991 40498976 39178955 38668947 38138943 37538936 37258941 36988946 36868967 36749007 36709052 36679128 36699176 36819216 36939224 37269227 38759232 39489239 40199248 40619251 41139238 41309216 41289125 41249043 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more
SPC MD 503
MD 0503 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 154... FOR SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0503 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Areas affected...Southwest into central Missouri Concerning...Tornado Watch 154... Valid 201923Z - 202100Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 154 continues. SUMMARY...Storms moving along and near the lifting warm front will have an increased potential to produce a tornado given the development of a more favorable environment over the next few hours. DISCUSSION...Strong surface pressure falls have been noted in central Missouri over the past couple of hours. The surface low is deepening and should continue to track northeastward this afternoon. Low-level winds have also begun to respond to the deepening cyclone per regional VAD winds. Further increase in 850 mb winds are expected over the next few hours as well. As temperatures continue to rise south of the lifting warm front, storms tracking near and along the boundary will have an increased potential to produce a tornado--a strong tornado would be possible. ..Wendt.. 04/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA... LAT...LON 37409490 37569488 37759470 38219413 38799372 39229316 39449280 39539226 39539186 39349144 39059142 38509168 37939282 36989415 36979482 37409490 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more
Mesoscale Discussion 0503 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Areas affected...Southwest into central Missouri Concerning...Tornado Watch 154... Valid 201923Z - 202100Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 154 continues. SUMMARY...Storms moving along and near the lifting warm front will have an increased potential to produce a tornado given the development of a more favorable environment over the next few hours. DISCUSSION...Strong surface pressure falls have been noted in central Missouri over the past couple of hours. The surface low is deepening and should continue to track northeastward this afternoon. Low-level winds have also begun to respond to the deepening cyclone per regional VAD winds. Further increase in 850 mb winds are expected over the next few hours as well. As temperatures continue to rise south of the lifting warm front, storms tracking near and along the boundary will have an increased potential to produce a tornado--a strong tornado would be possible. ..Wendt.. 04/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA... LAT...LON 37409490 37569488 37759470 38219413 38799372 39229316 39449280 39539226 39539186 39349144 39059142 38509168 37939282 36989415 36979482 37409490 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...19z Update... The prior outlook remains valid with only minor changes. Some adjustments were made to the Elevated area over the central high Plains to better align with surface trough and axis of stronger winds. Some areas were also trimmed where fuel green up has occurred. A few hours of breezy winds and relatively dry surface conditions are possible across southwestern FL Monday afternoon. Dry fuels are in place and no rainfall is expected. However, winds should be weaker than the prior couple of days, suggesting fire-weather concerns will be more localized. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 04/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the Northeast as a second mid-level trough ejects into the northern Plains tomorrow (Monday). Accompanying surface lows over the north-central and northeastern CONUS will encourage moisture return from the central Plains to the East Coast. However, given surface lee troughing along the central High Plains, dry downslope flow is expected tomorrow afternoon. Guidance consensus depicts 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds overlapping with 15-20 percent RH for several hours tomorrow afternoon. Elevated highlights have been added where the aforementioned meteorological surface conditions may overspread areas that have received minimal rainfall in the past week, allowing fine fuels to support some wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...19z Update... The prior outlook remains valid with only minor changes. Some adjustments were made to the Elevated area over the central high Plains to better align with surface trough and axis of stronger winds. Some areas were also trimmed where fuel green up has occurred. A few hours of breezy winds and relatively dry surface conditions are possible across southwestern FL Monday afternoon. Dry fuels are in place and no rainfall is expected. However, winds should be weaker than the prior couple of days, suggesting fire-weather concerns will be more localized. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 04/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the Northeast as a second mid-level trough ejects into the northern Plains tomorrow (Monday). Accompanying surface lows over the north-central and northeastern CONUS will encourage moisture return from the central Plains to the East Coast. However, given surface lee troughing along the central High Plains, dry downslope flow is expected tomorrow afternoon. Guidance consensus depicts 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds overlapping with 15-20 percent RH for several hours tomorrow afternoon. Elevated highlights have been added where the aforementioned meteorological surface conditions may overspread areas that have received minimal rainfall in the past week, allowing fine fuels to support some wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...19z Update... The prior outlook remains valid with only minor changes. Some adjustments were made to the Elevated area over the central high Plains to better align with surface trough and axis of stronger winds. Some areas were also trimmed where fuel green up has occurred. A few hours of breezy winds and relatively dry surface conditions are possible across southwestern FL Monday afternoon. Dry fuels are in place and no rainfall is expected. However, winds should be weaker than the prior couple of days, suggesting fire-weather concerns will be more localized. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 04/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the Northeast as a second mid-level trough ejects into the northern Plains tomorrow (Monday). Accompanying surface lows over the north-central and northeastern CONUS will encourage moisture return from the central Plains to the East Coast. However, given surface lee troughing along the central High Plains, dry downslope flow is expected tomorrow afternoon. Guidance consensus depicts 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds overlapping with 15-20 percent RH for several hours tomorrow afternoon. Elevated highlights have been added where the aforementioned meteorological surface conditions may overspread areas that have received minimal rainfall in the past week, allowing fine fuels to support some wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...19z Update... The prior outlook remains valid with only minor changes. Some adjustments were made to the Elevated area over the central high Plains to better align with surface trough and axis of stronger winds. Some areas were also trimmed where fuel green up has occurred. A few hours of breezy winds and relatively dry surface conditions are possible across southwestern FL Monday afternoon. Dry fuels are in place and no rainfall is expected. However, winds should be weaker than the prior couple of days, suggesting fire-weather concerns will be more localized. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 04/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the Northeast as a second mid-level trough ejects into the northern Plains tomorrow (Monday). Accompanying surface lows over the north-central and northeastern CONUS will encourage moisture return from the central Plains to the East Coast. However, given surface lee troughing along the central High Plains, dry downslope flow is expected tomorrow afternoon. Guidance consensus depicts 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds overlapping with 15-20 percent RH for several hours tomorrow afternoon. Elevated highlights have been added where the aforementioned meteorological surface conditions may overspread areas that have received minimal rainfall in the past week, allowing fine fuels to support some wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
SPC Tornado Watch 154 Status Reports
WW 0154 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 154 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..04/20/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SHV...SGF...EAX...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 154 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC005-007-009-015-019-023-027-029-033-039-045-047-049-051-053- 057-059-061-065-071-073-081-083-087-089-091-097-099-101-103-105- 109-113-115-119-125-127-129-131-133-137-141-143-149-201940- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAXTER BENTON BOONE CARROLL CLARK CLEBURNE COLUMBIA CONWAY CRAWFORD DALLAS FAULKNER FRANKLIN FULTON GARLAND GRANT HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING HOWARD IZARD JOHNSON LAFAYETTE LITTLE RIVER LOGAN MADISON MARION MILLER MONTGOMERY NEVADA NEWTON OUACHITA PERRY PIKE POLK POPE PULASKI SALINE SCOTT SEARCY SEBASTIAN SEVIER STONE VAN BUREN WASHINGTON YELL KSC011-021-037-107-201940- Read more
STATUS REPORT ON WW 154 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..04/20/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SHV...SGF...EAX...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 154 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC005-007-009-015-019-023-027-029-033-039-045-047-049-051-053- 057-059-061-065-071-073-081-083-087-089-091-097-099-101-103-105- 109-113-115-119-125-127-129-131-133-137-141-143-149-201940- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAXTER BENTON BOONE CARROLL CLARK CLEBURNE COLUMBIA CONWAY CRAWFORD DALLAS FAULKNER FRANKLIN FULTON GARLAND GRANT HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING HOWARD IZARD JOHNSON LAFAYETTE LITTLE RIVER LOGAN MADISON MARION MILLER MONTGOMERY NEVADA NEWTON OUACHITA PERRY PIKE POLK POPE PULASKI SALINE SCOTT SEARCY SEBASTIAN SEVIER STONE VAN BUREN WASHINGTON YELL KSC011-021-037-107-201940- Read more
SPC Apr 20, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper low/shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest on Monday morning will lift northeast across the Great Lakes into southern Ontario and western Quebec by Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, another upper shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will develop eastward to the northern Plains. At the surface, an area of low pressure will move from Wisconsin to Quebec through the period with a trailing cold front moving from the Ohio Valley to the north-central Appalachians and into the Mid-Atlantic. This front will be more stationary across the Mid-Mississippi Valley and may start to move north by the end of the period across south-central Texas. ...Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes to the TN/Lower MS Valleys/Southeast TX... A narrow corridor of mid 60s dewpoints may be present across the Ohio Valley on Monday which could result in some weak instability despite extensive cloud cover and poor lapse rates. Robust vertical shear could result in a few stronger storms capable of isolated damaging wind gusts, but the limited instability should keep the threat minimal overall. Better-quality boundary layer moisture, slightly better lapse rates, and the potential for some warming may result in greater instability farther south, perhaps up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. However, vertical shear will be very weak where this better instability is forecast to develop. A couple of strong storms will be capable of locally strong gusts or small hail, but a lack of stronger vertical shear will likely limit longevity of any stronger/better organized updrafts, precluding severe probabilities. ...Northern Plains... Cold temperatures aloft with the upper shortwave trough will support steep midlevel lapse rates from MT into the northern Plains vicinity. As weak instability develops across the northern Plains, scattered thunderstorms are possible. A well-mixed air mass could support an isolated severe wind threat, particularly across southwest South Dakota and vicinity where mid-level flow will be strongest. Additional thunderstorms may develop overnight across eastern SD into southern MN/northern IA on the nose of a developing low-level jet. This activity may produce small hail into early Tuesday morning. ..Bentley.. 04/20/2025 Read more
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper low/shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest on Monday morning will lift northeast across the Great Lakes into southern Ontario and western Quebec by Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, another upper shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will develop eastward to the northern Plains. At the surface, an area of low pressure will move from Wisconsin to Quebec through the period with a trailing cold front moving from the Ohio Valley to the north-central Appalachians and into the Mid-Atlantic. This front will be more stationary across the Mid-Mississippi Valley and may start to move north by the end of the period across south-central Texas. ...Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes to the TN/Lower MS Valleys/Southeast TX... A narrow corridor of mid 60s dewpoints may be present across the Ohio Valley on Monday which could result in some weak instability despite extensive cloud cover and poor lapse rates. Robust vertical shear could result in a few stronger storms capable of isolated damaging wind gusts, but the limited instability should keep the threat minimal overall. Better-quality boundary layer moisture, slightly better lapse rates, and the potential for some warming may result in greater instability farther south, perhaps up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. However, vertical shear will be very weak where this better instability is forecast to develop. A couple of strong storms will be capable of locally strong gusts or small hail, but a lack of stronger vertical shear will likely limit longevity of any stronger/better organized updrafts, precluding severe probabilities. ...Northern Plains... Cold temperatures aloft with the upper shortwave trough will support steep midlevel lapse rates from MT into the northern Plains vicinity. As weak instability develops across the northern Plains, scattered thunderstorms are possible. A well-mixed air mass could support an isolated severe wind threat, particularly across southwest South Dakota and vicinity where mid-level flow will be strongest. Additional thunderstorms may develop overnight across eastern SD into southern MN/northern IA on the nose of a developing low-level jet. This activity may produce small hail into early Tuesday morning. ..Bentley.. 04/20/2025 Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...17z Update... The prior forecast remains on track with only minor changes to the ongoing fire-weather risk areas for the latest guidance. Across southern New England, several hours of dry and breezy conditions are possible behind an offshore cold front. Gusts of 15-20 mph may overlap with RH below 20% this afternoon. While some wetting rain has tempered fuels on a scattered basis, enough dry fuels likely exist for some fire-weather threat. Across parts of the Dakotas and western MN, several hours of dry southerly winds are likely ahead of a surface trough. Gusts of 20-30 mph with RH below 30% could support some risk for fire concerns in dry grasses and fine fuels. However, larger fuels remain less receptive and some trimming was made on the eastern edge where wetting rainfall has occurred in the last 72 hours. ..Lyons.. 04/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and corresponding surface low will traverse the Midwest as another upper trough ejects into the Atlantic from the Northeast today, encouraging deep-layer offshore flow along the New England coastline. While the overall synoptic pattern does not favor widespread, significant wildfire-spread potential across the CONUS, a few regional concerns for Elevated conditions do exist. Somewhat dry southerly return flow over portions of the Northern Plains may promote 15-20 mph sustained winds amid 25-30 percent RH this afternoon. Some wildfire-spread potential exists wherever dry fuel beds are present. Next, dry southeasterly flow will continue across western parts of the Florida Peninsula, with Elevated highlights continued across this region given 15 mph wind speeds coinciding with 25-35 percent RH atop dry fuels by afternoon. Lastly, 15-20 mph northwesterly surface flow will overlap with 25-40 percent RH across portions of New England by afternoon peak heating. Given an overall lack of heavy rainfall in this area in the past week, it is not out of the question for finer fuels to respond accordingly and support some potential for wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...17z Update... The prior forecast remains on track with only minor changes to the ongoing fire-weather risk areas for the latest guidance. Across southern New England, several hours of dry and breezy conditions are possible behind an offshore cold front. Gusts of 15-20 mph may overlap with RH below 20% this afternoon. While some wetting rain has tempered fuels on a scattered basis, enough dry fuels likely exist for some fire-weather threat. Across parts of the Dakotas and western MN, several hours of dry southerly winds are likely ahead of a surface trough. Gusts of 20-30 mph with RH below 30% could support some risk for fire concerns in dry grasses and fine fuels. However, larger fuels remain less receptive and some trimming was made on the eastern edge where wetting rainfall has occurred in the last 72 hours. ..Lyons.. 04/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and corresponding surface low will traverse the Midwest as another upper trough ejects into the Atlantic from the Northeast today, encouraging deep-layer offshore flow along the New England coastline. While the overall synoptic pattern does not favor widespread, significant wildfire-spread potential across the CONUS, a few regional concerns for Elevated conditions do exist. Somewhat dry southerly return flow over portions of the Northern Plains may promote 15-20 mph sustained winds amid 25-30 percent RH this afternoon. Some wildfire-spread potential exists wherever dry fuel beds are present. Next, dry southeasterly flow will continue across western parts of the Florida Peninsula, with Elevated highlights continued across this region given 15 mph wind speeds coinciding with 25-35 percent RH atop dry fuels by afternoon. Lastly, 15-20 mph northwesterly surface flow will overlap with 25-40 percent RH across portions of New England by afternoon peak heating. Given an overall lack of heavy rainfall in this area in the past week, it is not out of the question for finer fuels to respond accordingly and support some potential for wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
SPC Apr 20, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today across parts of the ArkLaTex into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley, mainly this afternoon and evening. The best corridor for tornadoes (some of which could be strong) and scattered to numerous damaging winds should exist from central/northern Arkansas into Missouri. ...Synopsis... A compact upper low currently moving into western Oklahoma will shift quickly northeastward this afternoon and tonight, crossing eastern Kansas and western Missouri this evening and then continuing northeastward across Iowa and into Wisconsin tonight. Fast southwesterly flow aloft will exist in advance of this system, within the tight height gradient between this feature and the persistent ridge centered over the Southeast. At the surface, a developing low analyzed over western Oklahoma at 15Z is forecast to progress northeastward across southeastern Kansas and Missouri through the afternoon, and then should continue northward toward -- and eventually into -- southern Wisconsin by early Monday morning. While a warm front lifts northward across the Mid Mississippi Valley/Midwest, a cold front trailing from the low will sweep eastward into/across Missouri and Arkansas this afternoon and evening, and then across the Mid and Lower Mississippi Valleys through the end of the period. ...Northeastern Texas northeastward to the western Illinois vicinity... An expansive area of multi-level cloud cover, along with ongoing convection, is evident across western and northern portions of the risk area late this morning, which continues to retard more substantial heating at this point. With that said, some breaks in the clouds are evident per recent visible imagery as far west as eastern Oklahoma, with thinning cloud cover with eastward/northeastward extent into Arkansas and the Ozarks. As the surface low over Oklahoma deepens through the day in tandem with the advance of the upper low, northward advance of the warm front with time will allow a moist boundary layer to likewise overspread much of Missouri and Illinois through sunset. This, combined with at least modest heating across portions of the area should yield an amply unstable environment (500 to near 1500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE) to gradually evolve -- supporting a steady increase in convective coverage and intensity this afternoon. In contrast to the rather modest thermodynamic environment, a very favorable low-level and deep-layer wind field is evident, with respect to development of organized/rotating storms. An 80 kt mid-level jet will spread northeastward across the risk area with time, atop a 50-plus kt low-level jet. This will support vigorous updraft evolution, with all-hazards severe risk evolving as a result. At this time, it remains apparent that tornado potential -- including risk for a couple of strong tornadoes -- should maximize across the Ozarks, and areas just north and south, as surface winds back to southeasterly ahead of the deepening/advancing surface low. The primary risk should evolve with an anticipated, broken band of storms within the cold-frontal zone, including embedded supercells. Along with the tornado potential, fairly widespread coverage of damaging wind gusts is also expected, as complex, LEWP/bow-type structures are expected within the band of storms, as convection advances eastward across Missouri and Arkansas toward the Mississippi Valley through the afternoon and into the evening hours. Severe risk is expected to expand as far north as southeastern Iowa and adjacent western Illinois this evening, where weaker instability is expected, and as far south as eastern Texas where a weaker wind field with southward extent should limit severe potential on the southern fringe. Risk should very gradually diminish overnight as convection shifts eastward across the Mid-Mississippi Valley. ..Goss/Halbert.. 04/20/2025 Read more
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today across parts of the ArkLaTex into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley, mainly this afternoon and evening. The best corridor for tornadoes (some of which could be strong) and scattered to numerous damaging winds should exist from central/northern Arkansas into Missouri. ...Synopsis... A compact upper low currently moving into western Oklahoma will shift quickly northeastward this afternoon and tonight, crossing eastern Kansas and western Missouri this evening and then continuing northeastward across Iowa and into Wisconsin tonight. Fast southwesterly flow aloft will exist in advance of this system, within the tight height gradient between this feature and the persistent ridge centered over the Southeast. At the surface, a developing low analyzed over western Oklahoma at 15Z is forecast to progress northeastward across southeastern Kansas and Missouri through the afternoon, and then should continue northward toward -- and eventually into -- southern Wisconsin by early Monday morning. While a warm front lifts northward across the Mid Mississippi Valley/Midwest, a cold front trailing from the low will sweep eastward into/across Missouri and Arkansas this afternoon and evening, and then across the Mid and Lower Mississippi Valleys through the end of the period. ...Northeastern Texas northeastward to the western Illinois vicinity... An expansive area of multi-level cloud cover, along with ongoing convection, is evident across western and northern portions of the risk area late this morning, which continues to retard more substantial heating at this point. With that said, some breaks in the clouds are evident per recent visible imagery as far west as eastern Oklahoma, with thinning cloud cover with eastward/northeastward extent into Arkansas and the Ozarks. As the surface low over Oklahoma deepens through the day in tandem with the advance of the upper low, northward advance of the warm front with time will allow a moist boundary layer to likewise overspread much of Missouri and Illinois through sunset. This, combined with at least modest heating across portions of the area should yield an amply unstable environment (500 to near 1500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE) to gradually evolve -- supporting a steady increase in convective coverage and intensity this afternoon. In contrast to the rather modest thermodynamic environment, a very favorable low-level and deep-layer wind field is evident, with respect to development of organized/rotating storms. An 80 kt mid-level jet will spread northeastward across the risk area with time, atop a 50-plus kt low-level jet. This will support vigorous updraft evolution, with all-hazards severe risk evolving as a result. At this time, it remains apparent that tornado potential -- including risk for a couple of strong tornadoes -- should maximize across the Ozarks, and areas just north and south, as surface winds back to southeasterly ahead of the deepening/advancing surface low. The primary risk should evolve with an anticipated, broken band of storms within the cold-frontal zone, including embedded supercells. Along with the tornado potential, fairly widespread coverage of damaging wind gusts is also expected, as complex, LEWP/bow-type structures are expected within the band of storms, as convection advances eastward across Missouri and Arkansas toward the Mississippi Valley through the afternoon and into the evening hours. Severe risk is expected to expand as far north as southeastern Iowa and adjacent western Illinois this evening, where weaker instability is expected, and as far south as eastern Texas where a weaker wind field with southward extent should limit severe potential on the southern fringe. Risk should very gradually diminish overnight as convection shifts eastward across the Mid-Mississippi Valley. ..Goss/Halbert.. 04/20/2025 Read more
SPC - No watches are valid as of Sun Apr 20 13:27:02 UTC 2025
No watches are valid as of Sun Apr 20 13:27:02 UTC 2025.
SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Sun Apr 20 13:27:02 UTC 2025
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Apr 20 13:27:02 UTC 2025.
SPC Apr 20, 2025 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today across parts of the ArkLaTex into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley, mainly this afternoon and evening. The best corridor for tornadoes (some of which could be strong) and scattered to numerous damaging winds should exist from central/northern Arkansas into Missouri. ...ArkLaTex into the Ozarks and Mid Mississippi Valley... Extensive convection has occurred overnight and early this morning across the southern Plains into the Ozarks and mid MS Valley. Ongoing thunderstorms across south-central TX are expected to continue weakening over the next couple of hours as they encounter a strongly capped airmass. Activity over eastern OK into western AR and MO may pose an isolated hail/wind threat this morning, although instability will tend to remain weak for at least a few more hours. Otherwise, a strong mid-level shortwave trough will continue to eject northeastward from the southern Plains across the Ozarks and mid MS Valley through the period. An attendant 60-90 kt mid-level jet will likewise spread northeastward across eastern OK/KS and the Ozarks through the day. A weak surface low over OK this morning will also develop northeastward to northern MO by this evening, while a cold front continues moving eastward over the southern Plains towards the ArkLaTex. Ongoing cloudiness and precipitation lend some uncertainty regarding the degree of destabilization that will occur by this afternoon across the developing warm sector. Still, most guidance shows that at least low 60s surface dewpoints and related low-level moisture will attempt to stream northward across eastern OK and AR/MO in tandem with a strong southerly low-level jet today. Although daytime heating will likely be hampered to some extent, even 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE will support surface-based thunderstorms by this afternoon. This destabilization appears likely to occur in a narrow corridor along and just ahead of the surface low and related cold front. Rather strong deep-layer shear will easily support organized updrafts, including the potential for a mix of supercells and broken line segments. Current expectations are for robust thunderstorms to develop along/near the front across eastern OK and vicinity by early afternoon (17-19Z), as pronounced large-scale ascent associated with the ejecting shortwave trough impinges on the warm sector. Given a weakly unstable and strongly sheared environment, this convection should intensify fairly quickly as it moves east-northeastward into AR/MO. The linear forcing of the front suggests that a line or cluster mode should occur, although some high-resolution guidance does show more of a broken line of supercells given the strength of the deep-layer shear. Regardless, the threat for scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds and tornadoes will increase this afternoon and evening across the Enhanced Risk and vicinity, as a 40-55 kt southerly low-level jet aids in large 0-3 km hodograph curvature and elongation. Given the forecast strength of the low-level shear, some of these tornadoes could be strong (EF-2+), especially if a mixed supercell/cluster mode can be maintained versus linear. Hail may also occur with any sustained supercells. The overall severe threat this evening and overnight will be tempered on the north by limited low-level moisture and instability, and on the east by gradually increasing MLCIN. ..Gleason/Broyles.. 04/20/2025 Read more
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today across parts of the ArkLaTex into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley, mainly this afternoon and evening. The best corridor for tornadoes (some of which could be strong) and scattered to numerous damaging winds should exist from central/northern Arkansas into Missouri. ...ArkLaTex into the Ozarks and Mid Mississippi Valley... Extensive convection has occurred overnight and early this morning across the southern Plains into the Ozarks and mid MS Valley. Ongoing thunderstorms across south-central TX are expected to continue weakening over the next couple of hours as they encounter a strongly capped airmass. Activity over eastern OK into western AR and MO may pose an isolated hail/wind threat this morning, although instability will tend to remain weak for at least a few more hours. Otherwise, a strong mid-level shortwave trough will continue to eject northeastward from the southern Plains across the Ozarks and mid MS Valley through the period. An attendant 60-90 kt mid-level jet will likewise spread northeastward across eastern OK/KS and the Ozarks through the day. A weak surface low over OK this morning will also develop northeastward to northern MO by this evening, while a cold front continues moving eastward over the southern Plains towards the ArkLaTex. Ongoing cloudiness and precipitation lend some uncertainty regarding the degree of destabilization that will occur by this afternoon across the developing warm sector. Still, most guidance shows that at least low 60s surface dewpoints and related low-level moisture will attempt to stream northward across eastern OK and AR/MO in tandem with a strong southerly low-level jet today. Although daytime heating will likely be hampered to some extent, even 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE will support surface-based thunderstorms by this afternoon. This destabilization appears likely to occur in a narrow corridor along and just ahead of the surface low and related cold front. Rather strong deep-layer shear will easily support organized updrafts, including the potential for a mix of supercells and broken line segments. Current expectations are for robust thunderstorms to develop along/near the front across eastern OK and vicinity by early afternoon (17-19Z), as pronounced large-scale ascent associated with the ejecting shortwave trough impinges on the warm sector. Given a weakly unstable and strongly sheared environment, this convection should intensify fairly quickly as it moves east-northeastward into AR/MO. The linear forcing of the front suggests that a line or cluster mode should occur, although some high-resolution guidance does show more of a broken line of supercells given the strength of the deep-layer shear. Regardless, the threat for scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds and tornadoes will increase this afternoon and evening across the Enhanced Risk and vicinity, as a 40-55 kt southerly low-level jet aids in large 0-3 km hodograph curvature and elongation. Given the forecast strength of the low-level shear, some of these tornadoes could be strong (EF-2+), especially if a mixed supercell/cluster mode can be maintained versus linear. Hail may also occur with any sustained supercells. The overall severe threat this evening and overnight will be tempered on the north by limited low-level moisture and instability, and on the east by gradually increasing MLCIN. ..Gleason/Broyles.. 04/20/2025 Read more
SPC Apr 20, 2025 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today across parts of the ArkLaTex into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley, mainly this afternoon and evening. The best corridor for tornadoes (some of which could be strong) and scattered to numerous damaging winds should exist from central/northern Arkansas into Missouri. ...ArkLaTex into the Ozarks and Mid Mississippi Valley... Extensive convection has occurred overnight and early this morning across the southern Plains into the Ozarks and mid MS Valley. Ongoing thunderstorms across south-central TX are expected to continue weakening over the next couple of hours as they encounter a strongly capped airmass. Activity over eastern OK into western AR and MO may pose an isolated hail/wind threat this morning, although instability will tend to remain weak for at least a few more hours. Otherwise, a strong mid-level shortwave trough will continue to eject northeastward from the southern Plains across the Ozarks and mid MS Valley through the period. An attendant 60-90 kt mid-level jet will likewise spread northeastward across eastern OK/KS and the Ozarks through the day. A weak surface low over OK this morning will also develop northeastward to northern MO by this evening, while a cold front continues moving eastward over the southern Plains towards the ArkLaTex. Ongoing cloudiness and precipitation lend some uncertainty regarding the degree of destabilization that will occur by this afternoon across the developing warm sector. Still, most guidance shows that at least low 60s surface dewpoints and related low-level moisture will attempt to stream northward across eastern OK and AR/MO in tandem with a strong southerly low-level jet today. Although daytime heating will likely be hampered to some extent, even 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE will support surface-based thunderstorms by this afternoon. This destabilization appears likely to occur in a narrow corridor along and just ahead of the surface low and related cold front. Rather strong deep-layer shear will easily support organized updrafts, including the potential for a mix of supercells and broken line segments. Current expectations are for robust thunderstorms to develop along/near the front across eastern OK and vicinity by early afternoon (17-19Z), as pronounced large-scale ascent associated with the ejecting shortwave trough impinges on the warm sector. Given a weakly unstable and strongly sheared environment, this convection should intensify fairly quickly as it moves east-northeastward into AR/MO. The linear forcing of the front suggests that a line or cluster mode should occur, although some high-resolution guidance does show more of a broken line of supercells given the strength of the deep-layer shear. Regardless, the threat for scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds and tornadoes will increase this afternoon and evening across the Enhanced Risk and vicinity, as a 40-55 kt southerly low-level jet aids in large 0-3 km hodograph curvature and elongation. Given the forecast strength of the low-level shear, some of these tornadoes could be strong (EF-2+), especially if a mixed supercell/cluster mode can be maintained versus linear. Hail may also occur with any sustained supercells. The overall severe threat this evening and overnight will be tempered on the north by limited low-level moisture and instability, and on the east by gradually increasing MLCIN. ..Gleason/Broyles.. 04/20/2025 Read more
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today across parts of the ArkLaTex into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley, mainly this afternoon and evening. The best corridor for tornadoes (some of which could be strong) and scattered to numerous damaging winds should exist from central/northern Arkansas into Missouri. ...ArkLaTex into the Ozarks and Mid Mississippi Valley... Extensive convection has occurred overnight and early this morning across the southern Plains into the Ozarks and mid MS Valley. Ongoing thunderstorms across south-central TX are expected to continue weakening over the next couple of hours as they encounter a strongly capped airmass. Activity over eastern OK into western AR and MO may pose an isolated hail/wind threat this morning, although instability will tend to remain weak for at least a few more hours. Otherwise, a strong mid-level shortwave trough will continue to eject northeastward from the southern Plains across the Ozarks and mid MS Valley through the period. An attendant 60-90 kt mid-level jet will likewise spread northeastward across eastern OK/KS and the Ozarks through the day. A weak surface low over OK this morning will also develop northeastward to northern MO by this evening, while a cold front continues moving eastward over the southern Plains towards the ArkLaTex. Ongoing cloudiness and precipitation lend some uncertainty regarding the degree of destabilization that will occur by this afternoon across the developing warm sector. Still, most guidance shows that at least low 60s surface dewpoints and related low-level moisture will attempt to stream northward across eastern OK and AR/MO in tandem with a strong southerly low-level jet today. Although daytime heating will likely be hampered to some extent, even 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE will support surface-based thunderstorms by this afternoon. This destabilization appears likely to occur in a narrow corridor along and just ahead of the surface low and related cold front. Rather strong deep-layer shear will easily support organized updrafts, including the potential for a mix of supercells and broken line segments. Current expectations are for robust thunderstorms to develop along/near the front across eastern OK and vicinity by early afternoon (17-19Z), as pronounced large-scale ascent associated with the ejecting shortwave trough impinges on the warm sector. Given a weakly unstable and strongly sheared environment, this convection should intensify fairly quickly as it moves east-northeastward into AR/MO. The linear forcing of the front suggests that a line or cluster mode should occur, although some high-resolution guidance does show more of a broken line of supercells given the strength of the deep-layer shear. Regardless, the threat for scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds and tornadoes will increase this afternoon and evening across the Enhanced Risk and vicinity, as a 40-55 kt southerly low-level jet aids in large 0-3 km hodograph curvature and elongation. Given the forecast strength of the low-level shear, some of these tornadoes could be strong (EF-2+), especially if a mixed supercell/cluster mode can be maintained versus linear. Hail may also occur with any sustained supercells. The overall severe threat this evening and overnight will be tempered on the north by limited low-level moisture and instability, and on the east by gradually increasing MLCIN. ..Gleason/Broyles.. 04/20/2025 Read more
SPC MD 500
MD 0500 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 153... FOR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0500 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Areas affected...Southwest Missouri Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 153... Valid 200854Z - 201100Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 153 continues. SUMMARY...A wind-damage threat is expected to gradually move eastward across southwest Missouri over the next couple of hours. The threat should become more isolated as it eventually approaches the eastern edge of WW 153. New weather watch issuance to the east of the ongoing watch appears unlikely. DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar imagery from Springfield, Missouri shows a continuous line of strong to severe storms located from far northwest Arkansas into far southwest Missouri. Ahead of the line, the RAP is analyzing an axis of weak instability with MUCAPE in the 250 to 500 J/kg range. The RAP forecast sounding at Springfield has effective shear of 50 to 55 knots. This will likely support a severe threat with the line segment as it gradually moves eastward over the next couple of hours. Severe wind gusts will be the primary threat. The threat should become more isolated as it moves into even weaker instability further east. ..Broyles.. 04/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF... LAT...LON 36529255 36519341 36559386 36809409 37249387 37829339 37959271 37619209 36789212 36529255 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more
Mesoscale Discussion 0500 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Areas affected...Southwest Missouri Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 153... Valid 200854Z - 201100Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 153 continues. SUMMARY...A wind-damage threat is expected to gradually move eastward across southwest Missouri over the next couple of hours. The threat should become more isolated as it eventually approaches the eastern edge of WW 153. New weather watch issuance to the east of the ongoing watch appears unlikely. DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar imagery from Springfield, Missouri shows a continuous line of strong to severe storms located from far northwest Arkansas into far southwest Missouri. Ahead of the line, the RAP is analyzing an axis of weak instability with MUCAPE in the 250 to 500 J/kg range. The RAP forecast sounding at Springfield has effective shear of 50 to 55 knots. This will likely support a severe threat with the line segment as it gradually moves eastward over the next couple of hours. Severe wind gusts will be the primary threat. The threat should become more isolated as it moves into even weaker instability further east. ..Broyles.. 04/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF... LAT...LON 36529255 36519341 36559386 36809409 37249387 37829339 37959271 37619209 36789212 36529255 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more
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