SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 211630Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today across the upper Ohio Valley/lower Great Lakes and parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds and marginally severe hail are the primary risks. ...Upper OH Valley... Morning surface analysis and satellite imagery show a cold front sweeping eastward across OH. Considerable cloud cover is present ahead of the front, but a narrow corridor of heating immediately ahead of the front will allow a period of heating - promoting scattered thunderstorms. Low-level moisture is limited with dewpoints only in the 50s, and forecast soundings show CAPE values generally below 1000 J/kg. Nevertheless, strong low and mid-level winds and considerable vertical shear will promote a risk of a few organized/severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. Refer to upcoming MCD #511 for further details. ...LA/MS/AL/GA/TN... The aforementioned surface cold front extends southeastward across west TN. A relatively moist air mass is present ahead of the front from southeast LA into parts of MS/AL and middle/east TN, although considerable cloud cover will limit heating. Most 12z models suggest scattered thunderstorms will form in this zone during the late afternoon and evening, with sufficient CAPE for a few robust updrafts. Low and mid level winds are not particularly strong, and large scale forcing is weak. This should limit the overall organization and severity of storms, but a few cells may produce gusty winds and hail. ...SD... Water vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough over WY approaching SD. Forcing ahead of this feature will likely lead to scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms across eastern WY and western/central SD this afternoon and evening. There is some chance that a storm or two could produce locally damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Thornton.. 04/21/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 211630Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today across the upper Ohio Valley/lower Great Lakes and parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds and marginally severe hail are the primary risks. ...Upper OH Valley... Morning surface analysis and satellite imagery show a cold front sweeping eastward across OH. Considerable cloud cover is present ahead of the front, but a narrow corridor of heating immediately ahead of the front will allow a period of heating - promoting scattered thunderstorms. Low-level moisture is limited with dewpoints only in the 50s, and forecast soundings show CAPE values generally below 1000 J/kg. Nevertheless, strong low and mid-level winds and considerable vertical shear will promote a risk of a few organized/severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. Refer to upcoming MCD #511 for further details. ...LA/MS/AL/GA/TN... The aforementioned surface cold front extends southeastward across west TN. A relatively moist air mass is present ahead of the front from southeast LA into parts of MS/AL and middle/east TN, although considerable cloud cover will limit heating. Most 12z models suggest scattered thunderstorms will form in this zone during the late afternoon and evening, with sufficient CAPE for a few robust updrafts. Low and mid level winds are not particularly strong, and large scale forcing is weak. This should limit the overall organization and severity of storms, but a few cells may produce gusty winds and hail. ...SD... Water vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough over WY approaching SD. Forcing ahead of this feature will likely lead to scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms across eastern WY and western/central SD this afternoon and evening. There is some chance that a storm or two could produce locally damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Thornton.. 04/21/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 211300Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today across the upper Ohio Valley/lower Great Lakes and parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds and marginally severe hail are the primary risks. ...Upper Ohio Valley to the Lower Great Lakes... An upper trough with an attendant 55-70 kt mid-level jet will advance east-northeastward from the Upper Midwest across the Great Lakes and Northeast today. A related surface low will develop northeastward into Ontario/Quebec, while a cold front sweeps eastward over the OH Valley and parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast through this evening. Modest low-level moisture will advect northward ahead of this front in tandem with a strong southwesterly low-level jet. Even though this moisture will remain somewhat limited, filtered daytime heating and cool mid-level temperatures should aid weak destabilization in a narrow corridor along/ahead of the front by early afternoon. Thunderstorms that develop along the front may pose an isolated severe/damaging wind threat this afternoon and early evening given the expected strength of the low/mid-level flow. Occasional hail may also be noted with the strongest cores, and sufficient low-level shear should exist to support a tornado or two. The Marginal Risk has been expanded northward/eastward some based on latest guidance trends regarding sufficient destabilization to support surface-based convection. ...Southeast... The trailing portion of the surface cold front should make only slow east-southeastward progress today across the Southeast. This region will have weaker low/mid-level winds compared to locations farther north. Still, around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE should develop by this afternoon along/ahead of the front, while 25-35 kt of deep-layer shear aids in modest updraft organization. Any thunderstorms which develop in this regime could pose an isolated threat for marginally severe hail and damaging winds. This threat should peak by mid afternoon, before gradually diminishing through the evening with the loss of daytime heating. ...Northern Plains... Gusty winds may occur with high-based convection this afternoon as a shortwave trough moves eastward over the northern Plains. However, low-level moisture and instability are both expected to remain very meager, which should preclude an organized severe wind threat. ...Upper Midwest... Elevated thunderstorms may develop late tonight across parts of IA in a low-level warm advection regime. With MUCAPE forecast to remain less than 1000 J/kg, the potential for severe hail appears too limited to include low severe probabilities at this time. ..Gleason/Broyles.. 04/21/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 211300Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today across the upper Ohio Valley/lower Great Lakes and parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds and marginally severe hail are the primary risks. ...Upper Ohio Valley to the Lower Great Lakes... An upper trough with an attendant 55-70 kt mid-level jet will advance east-northeastward from the Upper Midwest across the Great Lakes and Northeast today. A related surface low will develop northeastward into Ontario/Quebec, while a cold front sweeps eastward over the OH Valley and parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast through this evening. Modest low-level moisture will advect northward ahead of this front in tandem with a strong southwesterly low-level jet. Even though this moisture will remain somewhat limited, filtered daytime heating and cool mid-level temperatures should aid weak destabilization in a narrow corridor along/ahead of the front by early afternoon. Thunderstorms that develop along the front may pose an isolated severe/damaging wind threat this afternoon and early evening given the expected strength of the low/mid-level flow. Occasional hail may also be noted with the strongest cores, and sufficient low-level shear should exist to support a tornado or two. The Marginal Risk has been expanded northward/eastward some based on latest guidance trends regarding sufficient destabilization to support surface-based convection. ...Southeast... The trailing portion of the surface cold front should make only slow east-southeastward progress today across the Southeast. This region will have weaker low/mid-level winds compared to locations farther north. Still, around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE should develop by this afternoon along/ahead of the front, while 25-35 kt of deep-layer shear aids in modest updraft organization. Any thunderstorms which develop in this regime could pose an isolated threat for marginally severe hail and damaging winds. This threat should peak by mid afternoon, before gradually diminishing through the evening with the loss of daytime heating. ...Northern Plains... Gusty winds may occur with high-based convection this afternoon as a shortwave trough moves eastward over the northern Plains. However, low-level moisture and instability are both expected to remain very meager, which should preclude an organized severe wind threat. ...Upper Midwest... Elevated thunderstorms may develop late tonight across parts of IA in a low-level warm advection regime. With MUCAPE forecast to remain less than 1000 J/kg, the potential for severe hail appears too limited to include low severe probabilities at this time. ..Gleason/Broyles.. 04/21/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Thu -- Central/Southern Plains... Some severe thunderstorm potential is possible across the southern/central Plains on Day 4/Thu. Similar to the Day 2-3/Tue-Wed period, a low-amplitude, and generally modest deep-layer southwesterly flow regime will persist. Southerly low level flow ahead of a southward sagging front across the central Plains, and to the east of a dryline extending southward across the southern High Plains will sustain advection of Gulf moisture across the region. At least some risk for isolated severe thunderstorms appears possible within the moist/unstable warm sector. However, convection may be ongoing across portions of the region Thursday morning, and given a lack of any stronger upper forcing regime or surface cyclogenesis, confidence in where greater severe potential may develop is low, precluding 15 percent delineation at this time. ...Days 5-6/Fri-Sat -- Southern Plains vicinity... Upper riding is forecast to overspread the Plains late in the week ahead of a deepening western U.S. upper trough. A cold front will sag south and east on Friday, extending from the Ohio Valley into the southern High Plains. As the upper ridge builds, richer Gulf moisture will develop across TX into OK. Some localized strong/severe storms may develop across west TX during this time within the moist upslope flow regime, but the upper ridge and weak forcing should suppress more widespread severe potential. ...Days 7-8/Sun-Mon -- Plains to the MS Valley... Severe potential is likely to increase from OK/TX into the central Plains/Mid-MO Valley by early next week as the western upper trough begins to eject eastward. This should result in stronger southwesterly mid/upper flow overspreading a broad warm sector. This overall pattern is a synoptically favorable spring time pattern for severe storms across the Plains. Furthermore, control members and ensemble members from the GFS and ECMWF are in fairly good agreement regarding the timing/location of the ejecting upper trough and stronger southwesterly flow overspreading the region. Nevertheless, uncertainty remains too high to include 15 percent delineated areas at this time. This is particularly the case of Day 7/Sun where forecast guidance has widespread precipitation ongoing during the morning. Given the otherwise favorable pattern, severe probabilities will likely be needed in the coming days as details become better refined. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Thu -- Central/Southern Plains... Some severe thunderstorm potential is possible across the southern/central Plains on Day 4/Thu. Similar to the Day 2-3/Tue-Wed period, a low-amplitude, and generally modest deep-layer southwesterly flow regime will persist. Southerly low level flow ahead of a southward sagging front across the central Plains, and to the east of a dryline extending southward across the southern High Plains will sustain advection of Gulf moisture across the region. At least some risk for isolated severe thunderstorms appears possible within the moist/unstable warm sector. However, convection may be ongoing across portions of the region Thursday morning, and given a lack of any stronger upper forcing regime or surface cyclogenesis, confidence in where greater severe potential may develop is low, precluding 15 percent delineation at this time. ...Days 5-6/Fri-Sat -- Southern Plains vicinity... Upper riding is forecast to overspread the Plains late in the week ahead of a deepening western U.S. upper trough. A cold front will sag south and east on Friday, extending from the Ohio Valley into the southern High Plains. As the upper ridge builds, richer Gulf moisture will develop across TX into OK. Some localized strong/severe storms may develop across west TX during this time within the moist upslope flow regime, but the upper ridge and weak forcing should suppress more widespread severe potential. ...Days 7-8/Sun-Mon -- Plains to the MS Valley... Severe potential is likely to increase from OK/TX into the central Plains/Mid-MO Valley by early next week as the western upper trough begins to eject eastward. This should result in stronger southwesterly mid/upper flow overspreading a broad warm sector. This overall pattern is a synoptically favorable spring time pattern for severe storms across the Plains. Furthermore, control members and ensemble members from the GFS and ECMWF are in fairly good agreement regarding the timing/location of the ejecting upper trough and stronger southwesterly flow overspreading the region. Nevertheless, uncertainty remains too high to include 15 percent delineated areas at this time. This is particularly the case of Day 7/Sun where forecast guidance has widespread precipitation ongoing during the morning. Given the otherwise favorable pattern, severe probabilities will likely be needed in the coming days as details become better refined. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central and southern High Plains on Wednesday. ...Central/Southern High Plains... A persistent low-amplitude, weak southwesterly flow pattern will persist across the Plains and into the eastern U.S. on Day 3/Wednesday. Forecast guidance indicates some weak shortwave perturbations will migrate through this weak southwesterly flow aloft, emanating from a weak upper trough over the western U.S. At the surface, southerly low-level flow will continue to transport modified Gulf moisture northward across the southern Plains and into the central Plains. A stalled frontal boundary will extend from southern MN into central NE and northeast CO, while a dryline extends southward across the central/southern High Plains. Persistent moist advection will allow for weak to moderate destabilization within the vicinity of the aforementioned surface boundaries, and isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development will be possible by late afternoon/evening. Large hail and strong gusts could accompany this activity from southwest NE into western TX. ..Leitman.. 04/21/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central and southern High Plains on Wednesday. ...Central/Southern High Plains... A persistent low-amplitude, weak southwesterly flow pattern will persist across the Plains and into the eastern U.S. on Day 3/Wednesday. Forecast guidance indicates some weak shortwave perturbations will migrate through this weak southwesterly flow aloft, emanating from a weak upper trough over the western U.S. At the surface, southerly low-level flow will continue to transport modified Gulf moisture northward across the southern Plains and into the central Plains. A stalled frontal boundary will extend from southern MN into central NE and northeast CO, while a dryline extends southward across the central/southern High Plains. Persistent moist advection will allow for weak to moderate destabilization within the vicinity of the aforementioned surface boundaries, and isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development will be possible by late afternoon/evening. Large hail and strong gusts could accompany this activity from southwest NE into western TX. ..Leitman.. 04/21/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A relatively zonal upper-flow pattern is expected over the CONUS tomorrow (Tuesday). At the surface, gradual moisture return is expected over the Plains into the Mississippi Valley while dry conditions persist over the Interior West to the High Plains. However, no significant overlaps of widespread dry and windy conditions are expected across the CONUS on Tuesday, so quiescent wildfire-spread conditions should be the norm. ..Squitieri.. 04/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A relatively zonal upper-flow pattern is expected over the CONUS tomorrow (Tuesday). At the surface, gradual moisture return is expected over the Plains into the Mississippi Valley while dry conditions persist over the Interior West to the High Plains. However, no significant overlaps of widespread dry and windy conditions are expected across the CONUS on Tuesday, so quiescent wildfire-spread conditions should be the norm. ..Squitieri.. 04/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the East Coast as a second trough traverses the Northern Plains today. Surface lee troughing is expected across the central High Plains as a mass response to the passing of the Northern Plains trough, resulting in dry downslope flow. By afternoon, 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will overlap with 15-20 percent RH over much of the Central High Plains. Elevated highlights are in place from far northeast New Mexico into central Nebraska, where fuels are dry. ..Squitieri.. 04/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the southern Plains. ...Synopsis... Low-amplitude west/southwest mid/upper flow will prevail across the south-central and southeast states on Tuesday. A belt of stronger westerlies aloft will reside across the northern tier of the U.S. as a series of upper troughs migrate eastward from the northern Plains to the Northeast. At the surface, low pressure over Quebec and an associated cold front will be located from the Hudson Valley into the NC/VA Piedmont. Further west, low-level moist advection on south/southeasterly low level flow will allow modified Gulf moisture to spread northward from the Lower MS Valley into the southern High Plains. ...Southern Plains to southern KS... Modest Gulf moisture will spread north and west through the day to near the NM/TX border and across much of OK into southern KS. Forecast guidance suggest a weak shortwave impulse will eject across the southern Rockies in modest west/southwesterly flow aloft. While height tendencies will remain neutral, precluding much in the way of surface cyclogenesis, a sharpening dryline is forecast to extend from southwest KS into the OK/TX Panhandles, then southward near the NM/TX border. Low-level moist advection beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate destabilization (MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/kg). While deep-layer flow will remain modest, vertically veering wind profiles will contribute to supercell wind profiles, with elongated/straight hodographs. Isolated supercells will pose a risk for large hail. Furthermore, strong heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates and a well mixed boundary layer, supporting isolated strong to severe outflow gusts. As a southerly low-level jet increases during the evening, some potential will exist for convection to develop into an eastward developing MCS. If this occurs, some severe potential could persist eastward away from the dryline into portions of western north Texas and western OK. ...IA/WI/IL... A stalled frontal boundary will extent across the Mid-MO Valley into southern WI. Modest moisture return and persistent isentropic ascent along this boundary may be sufficient for isolated thunderstorm development amid weak diurnal destabilization. Low to midlevel flow will remain rather weak, but rapidly increase above 700 mb, supporting effective shear magnitudes greater than 40 kt. Cold temperatures aloft (-17 C near 500 mb) will support MLCAPE to around 500 J/kg, and isolated convection could produce sporadic hail. ...Carolinas... A cold front associated with a surface low over Quebec will develop southeast across the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas during the afternoon/evening. Strong heating of a modestly moist boundary layer ahead of the front will support a corridor of MLCAPE up to 1000-1500 J/kg. Weak low-level southwesterly flow will increase with height, support effective shear magnitudes up to 35 kt. This should be sufficient for a few stronger/organized cells. Steep low-level lapse rates and somewhat elongated hodographs suggest transient supercells capable of strong gusts and isolated hail will be possible. ..Leitman.. 04/21/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF STATES... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms are possible across the upper Ohio Valley and across portions of the central Gulf States. Gusty winds and marginally severe hail are the primary risks. ...Upper Ohio Valley... Mid-MS Valley short-wave trough is forecast to eject into the upper Great Lakes region by mid day as 70+kt 500mb speed max translates across northern IN into southern ON. 500mb wind fields will strengthen across the upper OH Valley in response to this feature as heights are suppressed ahead of the short wave. Latest model guidance suggests the associated cold front will surge into western OH/KY by 18z, subsequently advancing into western PA later in the evening. Modest boundary-layer heating should contribute to adequate buoyancy for robust updrafts, and scattered convection should develop ahead of the front as temperatures warm through the 70s. Gusty winds may accompany this activity, along with some risk for marginally severe hail. ...Central Gulf States... Synoptic front will trail across the TN Valley through the central Gulf States today serving as the focus for thunderstorms as convective temperatures are breached along this weakly-forced boundary. While 0-6km bulk shear should only be modest across this region, seasonally high PW values and MLCAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg suggest some risk for gusty winds and hail. Boundary-layer heating should prove instrumental in convective updraft strength today. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 04/21/2025 Read more

MD 0510 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 156...158... FOR EAST ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...FAR WEST KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS...AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0510 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Areas affected...east Arkansas...northwest Tennessee...far west Kentucky...southeast Illinois...and southwest Indiana Concerning...Tornado Watch 156...158... Valid 210444Z - 210615Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 156, 158 continues. SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to slowly move east overnight. The tornado threat in Arkansas has sufficiently diminished to allow Tornado Watch #156 to expire at 12 AM CDT. Strong low-level flow may support a brief tornado or severe wind gust across Tornado Watch #158. DISCUSSION...A long-lived, mixed-mode convective line continues to move east across Arkansas, Missouri, and Illinois late this evening. Despite a favorable kinematic environment (0-1 km shear of 40-50 knots and 0-1 km SRH between 300-500 m2/s2), increasing convective inhibition and decreasing CAPE have resulted in a general decreasing trend in convective intensity. With the upper-/mid-level forcing moving farther away, this general decrease in intensity is expected to continue. Given the overall decrease in intensity, especially across Arkansas, Tornado Watch #156 will be allowed to expire at 12 AM CDT. Farther east/north in Tornado Watch #158, the strength of the kinematic environment may support a brief tornado or wind gust, despite the increasingly hostile thermodynamic environment. ..Marsh.. 04/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...JAN...LSX...LZK... LAT...LON 33869233 36578960 37468906 39148903 38748705 36458803 34459015 33279176 33869233 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0158 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0158 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 158 TORNADO IL IN KY TN 210250Z - 210900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 158 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 950 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Illinois Southwest Indiana Western Kentucky Western Tennessee * Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 950 PM until 400 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...The potential for severe thunderstorms, including a damaging wind and tornado risk, will develop east-northeastward through late evening and overnight, but generally on an increasingly isolated basis. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 30 statute miles east and west of a line from 150 miles north northeast of Paducah KY to 45 miles south southwest of Dyersburg TN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 155...WW 156...WW 157... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 23030. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0155 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 155 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S POF TO 35 S FAM TO 25 WNW SLO. ..SQUITIERI..04/21/25 ATTN...WFO...DVN...LSX...PAH...ILX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 155 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC003-005-011-021-027-039-051-055-077-081-087-113-115-121-123- 135-139-145-147-153-155-173-181-189-195-199-203-210340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER BOND BUREAU CHRISTIAN CLINTON DE WITT FAYETTE FRANKLIN JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON MCLEAN MACON MARION MARSHALL MONTGOMERY MOULTRIE PERRY PIATT PULASKI PUTNAM SHELBY UNION WASHINGTON WHITESIDE WILLIAMSON WOODFORD KYC007-210340- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALLARD Read more

MD 0507 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 155... FOR EASTERN MISSOURI INTO ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 0507 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Areas affected...eastern Missouri into Illinois Concerning...Tornado Watch 155... Valid 210046Z - 210215Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 155 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watch 155. Strong to severe gusts appear to be the main threat along most of the line, though tornadoes remain possible, particularly with supercells. DISCUSSION...A mature squall line continues to progress eastward amid a strongly sheared, adequately unstable airmass. A line-embedded mesovortex across far west-central IL has supported several estimated/measured severe gusts. While buoyancy ahead of this portion of the line is beginning to diminish considerably, strong synoptic forcing and ambient flow aloft will continue to support mesovortex maintenance and associated strong/severe gust potential, at least in the near-term. Farther south in southeast MO, supercells have entered the southwestern-most portions of the watch, and it is here where short-term tornado potential is greatest. Given strong kinematic fields in place, despite waning buoyancy, at least damaging gust potential may persist with the line downstream, east of the current Tornado Watch, so either a new WW issuance may be needed, or a spatial extension of the ongoing watch may be warranted. ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 04/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...LOT...ILX...MEG...LSX...DVN... LAT...LON 36589107 37449084 39749049 40189062 40929107 41439127 41759097 41739019 41378915 40918861 39968815 38858800 37828812 37018841 36488904 36478985 36499042 36589107 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 0508 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 156... FOR EAST ARKANSAS...WEST TENNESSEE...FAR WEST KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 0508 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0848 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Areas affected...east Arkansas...west Tennessee...far west Kentucky Concerning...Tornado Watch 156... Valid 210148Z - 210315Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 156 continues. SUMMARY...Thunderstorms continue to move east across Arkansas. A tornado threat will continue through the evening before beginning to lessen toward midnight. Trends will be monitored for potential watch across far west Tennessee and Kentucky DISCUSSION...A broken line of thunderstorms, many exhibiting at least transient supercellular characteristics, will continue to move east this evening. Recent VAD wind profiles from NQA (Memphis 88D) show the low-level jet (as proxied by the 0-1 km shear value) has increased from around 15-20 knots three hours ago to nearly 35 knots at present. Additionally, the VAD profile shows considerable clockwise turning below three kilometers, with much of that in the lowest one kilometer AGL (0-1 km SRH of nearly 350 m2/s2). Presently, SPC mesoanalysis shows a significant reduction in instability across eastern Arkansas as compared to areas to the west. However, given the upstream airmass remains moist and the strength of the low-level jet, an axis of instability up to 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE should be maintained for at least another couple of hours. With time, large-scale ascent and the low-level jet across Arkansas should weaken as the main short-wave trough moves away from the area. The weakening low-level jet should result in increased difficulty maintaining low-level instability. This combined with increasing convective inhibition from the loss of diurnal heating should result in a decrease in convective intensity through the evening hours. However, storm-scale processes (e.g. mesoscyclones) will allow thunderstorms to persist for at least a couple of hours into the less favorable environment. Thus, western Tennessee and Kentucky will be monitored for the need of a tornado watch. ..Marsh.. 04/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV... LAT...LON 36449104 36788802 33889070 33069332 36449104 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0157 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0157 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more