WW 0160 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 160 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SW SPS TO 5 SSW LTS TO 20 ESE FSI. ..BROYLES..04/23/25 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 160 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC065-141-230740- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JACKSON TILLMAN TXC009-023-077-155-197-275-485-487-230740- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR CLAY FOARD HARDEMAN KNOX WICHITA WILBARGER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday from eastern Colorado into Kansas, and southward across west Texas and Oklahoma. Large hail and strong wind gusts will be possible with this activity. ...Central/Southern Plains... Another day of low-amplitude, modest west/southwesterly mid/upper flow is forecast across the Plains on Thursday. Remnant convection from the Day 1/Wed period may be ongoing during the morning across parts of KS/OK/TX, but the location of this activity is uncertain. Nevertheless, south/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain warm advection across the region to the east of a dryline extending southward from eastern CO into southwest TX, and to the south of a frontal boundary near the NE/KS border. Additionally, an outflow boundary from morning convection is forecast by some guidance to reside near the OK/KS border, but this will depend on how Day 1/Wed convection evolves into the Day 2 period. Where stronger diurnal heating occurs, a corridor of 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast, most likely from west TX into OK, with more modest moisture/instability expected into the central High Plains. While deep-layer flow will be modest, effective shear around 25-35 kt will allow for isolated organized cells along the dryline in west TX, which may produce large hail and locally strong gusts. Further north across parts of eastern CO, modest moisture and upslope flow may support a few cells capable of producing hail and gusty winds. With eastward extent into KS/OK and perhaps western north TX, potential morning convection is resulting in quite a bit of uncertainty regarding how severe potential will evolve during the afternoon/evening. Re-invigoration of morning activity, or redevelopment along remnant outflow could result in scattered thunderstorm clusters. Large hail and strong gusts would be possible with this activity into the evening. Damaging gusts could become more likely during the evening if upscale growth can occur as a 25-35 kt southerly low-level jet develops. Given the high degree of uncertainty, will maintain Marginal (level 1 of 5) probabilities across an expanded area. ..Leitman.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are forecast over parts of Kansas, Oklahoma, and West Texas today and tonight, with damaging winds and hail possible. ...Synopsis... A split flow regime will exist today with the northern storm track from the northern Plains across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. To the south, stronger flow aloft will exist over much of Baja CA and Mexico, and across the Rio Grande Valley in TX. For much of the central CONUS, cool midlevel temperatures will persist, with modest westerly flow and marginal overall shear. At the surface, a trough will deepen during the day over West TX, with southerly winds maintaining 60s F dewpoints across the southern Plains and lower MS Valley. The diurnally destabilizing and uncapped air mass will support clusters of storms from KS into northern OK, and along the surface trough over West TX. Sporadic strong storms will also be possible across North TX where instability will remain favorable. Farther north, a weak surface trough will provide a focus from IA into WI and toward Lake MI, with marginal hail possible. Elsewhere, widely scattered strong storms are expected over parts of the Southeast, with stronger instability over eastern GA and SC supporting locally strong gusts. ...OK...North TX...ArkLaTex... Clusters of storms may be ongoing over southern OK and North Texas early today as activity moves in from the northwest from the previous night. Heating ahead of any such activity will support over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE with weak but veering winds with height favoring south/east propagation. Locally strong gusts appear to be the main threat with any such activity. ...Central and southern Plains... Heating will lead to MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg from western KS into parts of West TX this afternoon. Heating near the surface trough should support isolated activity over TX with slow-moving storms producing large hail. Northern areas from western KS into northwest OK may experience one or more clusters or an MCS as storms over far southeast CO produce outflow and move into KS and the Panhandles though the evening. ...IA into southern WI and toward western/northern lower MI... Areas of heating along with a plume of 50s F dewpoints near the surface trough will support scattered storms during the day. Steep lapse rates aloft and favorable deep-layer shear will support marginal hail. ..Jewell/Squitieri.. 04/23/2025 Read more

MD 0523 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 159...160... FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0523 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1057 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Areas affected...portions of northwestern Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 159...160... Valid 230357Z - 230530Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 159, 160 continues. SUMMARY...Severe gusts may accompany an organized MCS over the next few hours. DISCUSSION...An MCS has organized a couple of hours ago, and the KCDS ASOS measured a southeasterly gust of 47 kts within the trailing precipitation region, indicating that a localized severe gust threat may be increasing. This is in agreement with the last several runs of Warn-on-forecast, which has depicted a severe wind swath with this MCS along/near the Red River. Given residual MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg and increasing WAA with a strengthening nocturnal low-level jet, this MCS may persist, perhaps with severe gusts for at least a few more hours. Given the approaching expiration time of the ongoing severe thunderstorm watches, a downstream watch may be needed pending favorable convective trends against increasing MLCINH. ..Squitieri.. 04/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB... LAT...LON 33870160 34440075 34619957 34189851 33549832 33139844 32899918 32939998 33060065 33160093 33420148 33870160 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0159 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 159 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE 6R6 TO 40 W JCT TO 40 SW ABI TO 45 E LBB TO 40 E PVW TO 15 E LTS. ..BROYLES..04/23/25 ATTN...WFO...MAF...AMA...LUB...SJT...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 159 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC095-101-125-151-207-263-267-269-307-319-327-345-411-433-447- 230640- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CONCHO COTTLE DICKENS FISHER HASKELL KENT KIMBLE KING MCCULLOCH MASON MENARD MOTLEY SAN SABA STONEWALL THROCKMORTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0159 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 159 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW ABI TO 30 SSW LBB TO 25 SW PVW TO 30 E CDS. WW 159 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 230400Z. ..SQUITIERI..04/23/25 ATTN...WFO...MAF...AMA...LUB...SJT...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 159 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC095-101-105-107-125-151-153-169-189-263-267-269-303-305-307- 319-327-345-411-413-433-435-443-465-230400- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CONCHO COTTLE CROCKETT CROSBY DICKENS FISHER FLOYD GARZA HALE KENT KIMBLE KING LUBBOCK LYNN MCCULLOCH MASON MENARD MOTLEY SAN SABA SCHLEICHER STONEWALL SUTTON TERRELL VAL VERDE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 159 SEVERE TSTM TX 222015Z - 230400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 159 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 315 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of West Texas * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 315 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will develop and increase in coverage through the afternoon and evening across much of west Texas, in an increasingly moist and unstable environment. The strongest cells are expected to produce large hail and damaging wind gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles northeast of Amarillo TX to 35 miles east of Dryden TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27025. ...Hart Read more

WW 0160 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 160 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..04/23/25 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 160 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-009-015-033-053-077-079-095-105-113-115-151-155-159-167- 169-173-185-191-230440- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER BARTON BUTLER COMANCHE ELLSWORTH HARPER HARVEY KINGMAN LINCOLN MCPHERSON MARION PRATT RENO RICE RUSSELL SALINE SEDGWICK STAFFORD SUMNER OKC003-009-011-015-031-039-043-045-047-053-055-057-059-065-073- 075-093-129-141-149-151-153-230440- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA BECKHAM BLAINE CADDO COMANCHE CUSTER DEWEY ELLIS GARFIELD GRANT GREER HARMON HARPER JACKSON KINGFISHER Read more

WW 160 SEVERE TSTM KS OK TX 222230Z - 230600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 160 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 530 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of South-Central Kansas Western Oklahoma Northwest Texas * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday morning from 530 PM until 100 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is anticipated this evening from south-central KS southward through western OK into northwest TX. The environment across the region supports the potential for supercells, with large to very large hail as the primary risk. A tornado or two is also possible, along with some strong gusts as well. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles northwest of Hutchinson KS to 60 miles southwest of Wichita Falls TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 159... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Mosier Read more

MD 0520 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 160... FOR WESTERN OKLAHOMA...SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...NORTHWEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0520 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Areas affected...Western Oklahoma...south-central Kansas...northwest Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 160... Valid 230044Z - 230215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 160 continues. SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible. DISCUSSION...Primary zone of low-level convergence currently extends from west of GBD-southeast of LBL-north of DHT. Low-level moisture is slowly advancing northwest into this boundary with 50+ surface dew points into the eastern OK Panhandle. Over the next few hours, LLJ is forecast to increase across the northern TX Panhandle into southwest KS. This may aid renewed convection north of Woodward into south-central KS where robust thunderstorms are ongoing, and are likely producing large hail. A small cluster of strong/severe thunderstorms is propagating east toward southwest OK. This activity should advance into the western portions of ww160 over the next hour or so. Hail remains the primary risk. ..Darrow.. 04/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...FWD...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB... LAT...LON 33340008 38529936 38549753 33369836 33340008 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 0521 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0521 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0820 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Areas affected...Northeast Kansas into northwest Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 230120Z - 230315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A few strong/severe thunderstorms are possible this evening. Hail is the primary risk. DISCUSSION...Water-vapor imagery suggests a weak, low amplitude short-wave trough is located over the central Plains. This feature is translating east and may provide some encouragement for isolated convective development along/near a frontal zone that currently extends from south of CNK-north of STJ. 00z sounding from TOP exhibited very steep lapse rates, but notable capping was evident near 2km, and surface-based convection may struggle to develop as nocturnal cooling increases. However, large-scale ascent ahead of the short wave may cool/moist mid levels such that an elevated parcel is more likely to freely convect over the next few hours. This activity could briefly attain severe levels, but longevity/coverage may not warrant a severe thunderstorm watch. ..Darrow/Mosier.. 04/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 39129752 40389460 40389345 39709364 38139657 39129752 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TEXAS INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the southern/central Plains this evening, with isolated strong activity over Louisiana and later tonight into Iowa. ...Southern Plains... Scattered storms currently stretch from south-central KS into much of West TX, where strong heating occurred this afternoon along the leading edge of the moisture return. Cool midlevel temperatures as well as modest mid to high level flow will continue to support large hail. Some of these storms may congeal into cluster with damaging outflow, perhaps across northwest TX and southwest OK later tonight. For more information see forthcoming mesoscale discussion 520. ...Elsewhere... Isolated strong storms persist this evening over Louisiana, where moderate instability developed today. These slow moving cells may continue to produce marginal hail for an hour or two before dissipating with the loss of heating. Farther north, increasing southwest flow around 850 mb will transport moisture into NE/IA, as an upper trough over the northern Plains glances the area. Scattered elevated storms are expected late tonight, and cold midlevel temperatures and modest shear in the cloud-bearing layer may support sporadic hail. ..Jewell.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TEXAS INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the southern/central Plains this evening, with isolated strong activity over Louisiana and later tonight into Iowa. ...Southern Plains... Scattered storms currently stretch from south-central KS into much of West TX, where strong heating occurred this afternoon along the leading edge of the moisture return. Cool midlevel temperatures as well as modest mid to high level flow will continue to support large hail. Some of these storms may congeal into cluster with damaging outflow, perhaps across northwest TX and southwest OK later tonight. For more information see forthcoming mesoscale discussion 520. ...Elsewhere... Isolated strong storms persist this evening over Louisiana, where moderate instability developed today. These slow moving cells may continue to produce marginal hail for an hour or two before dissipating with the loss of heating. Farther north, increasing southwest flow around 850 mb will transport moisture into NE/IA, as an upper trough over the northern Plains glances the area. Scattered elevated storms are expected late tonight, and cold midlevel temperatures and modest shear in the cloud-bearing layer may support sporadic hail. ..Jewell.. 04/23/2025 Read more

WW 0159 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0159 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0160 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 160 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..04/22/25 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 160 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-009-015-033-053-077-079-095-105-113-115-151-155-159-167- 169-173-185-191-230040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER BARTON BUTLER COMANCHE ELLSWORTH HARPER HARVEY KINGMAN LINCOLN MCPHERSON MARION PRATT RENO RICE RUSSELL SALINE SEDGWICK STAFFORD SUMNER OKC003-009-011-015-031-039-043-045-047-053-055-057-059-065-073- 075-093-129-141-149-151-153-230040- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA BECKHAM BLAINE CADDO COMANCHE CUSTER DEWEY ELLIS GARFIELD GRANT GREER HARMON HARPER JACKSON KINGFISHER Read more

MD 0517 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA...SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0517 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Areas affected...portions of western Oklahoma...south-central Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 222025Z - 222230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Damaging wind and severe hail risk to increase through the afternoon/evening. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity has initiated and expected to continue to form along the dryline across the Texas Panhandle this afternoon. Additional thunderstorm development is expected across the frontal boundary draped across western/central Kansas into the Oklahoma Panhandle. Ahead of this development, the air mass across western Oklahoma into central/eastern Kansas has been suppressed owing to weak forcing and stout MLCIN most of the afternoon. Temperatures are warming, with MLCIN eroding west to east across the Texas Panhandle as temperatures have climbed into the 80s. Aloft sounding analysis indicates, steep lapse rates and ample CAPE above the 850 mb inversion. Thunderstorm activity will gradually shift into this region by late afternoon/evening. A mix of multi-cell clusters and embedded supercells capable of large hail and damaging wind are expected. A watch will likely be needed in the coming hours to cover this risk. ..Thornton/Hart.. 04/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB... LAT...LON 35509851 34599879 34269925 34209990 34279999 34999994 35729994 36779994 37199980 37939913 38309859 38449818 38439739 38409696 38119653 37569643 37129678 36089793 35509851 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 0518 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 0518 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0454 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Areas affected...portions of far northeast Missouri into central Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 222154Z - 222330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An isolated severe hail/wind threat may accompany the stronger storms. A WW issuance is unlikely. DISCUSSION...A baroclinic boundary/weak surface front continues to slowly sag southward, serving as a local source of lift for deep-moist convection. One multicellular cluster has already developed along the boundary in central IL and produced an instance of 1 inch diameter hail. Through the afternoon a couple more storms could develop. If they do, 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE and 35 kts of effective bulk shear may support an instance of marginally severe hail/wind. The severe threat should remain isolated, so a WW issuance is not anticipated. ..Squitieri/Mosier.. 04/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...EAX... LAT...LON 39419221 39799248 40359229 40839119 41089038 41008919 40568875 40068919 39758991 39599079 39479176 39419221 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z Mid-level flow is forecast to gradually intensify and amplify as a broad upper trough moves into the western US this weekend. Continued lee troughing will favor dry downslope winds across the Southwest and Great Basin with a corresponding increase in fire-weather potential. At the same time, ridging over the Southeast will favor dry conditions and continued drought. Elevated to potentially critical fire-weather conditions are likely through the extended forecast period. ...Southwest and Great Basin... As southwesterly flow aloft increases, several days of dry and breezy conditions are likely across the Southwest and southern High Plains. While some rain has temporarily limited available fuels, fire-weather concerns will return as dry conditions settle back into the region. At least Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected each day across portions of AZ and NM through the weekend. Higher probabilities for critical conditions are likely needed in future outlooks, as forecast guidance continues to converge. This currently appears to be across parts of southern NM this weekend as the main trough ejects. However, model guidance varies largely on timing and intensity of the upper trough and returning surface moisture. This suggests limited predictability for higher probabilities at this time. Across the southern Great Basin, several days of dry and breezy conditions are likely late this week and into next week. Area fuels have shown a response to drying over the past several days, and are likely to dry further through the period. While some threat for elevated to low-end critical fire-weather conditions is possible, uncertainty remains rather large. This will preclude the addition of probabilities for now, but some fire-weather threat may evolve. ...Southeastern US... Fire weather concerns will remain across FL as a subtropical high to the east support relatively dry easterly winds through early next week. Marine influence will mitigate fire-weather concerns along the Atlantic Coast, but central and western Florida could see relatively low daytime relative humidity of 30-40 percent. Persistent drought and dry fuels will promote at least Elevated fire-weather threat into the weekend. ..Lyons.. 04/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z Mid-level flow is forecast to gradually intensify and amplify as a broad upper trough moves into the western US this weekend. Continued lee troughing will favor dry downslope winds across the Southwest and Great Basin with a corresponding increase in fire-weather potential. At the same time, ridging over the Southeast will favor dry conditions and continued drought. Elevated to potentially critical fire-weather conditions are likely through the extended forecast period. ...Southwest and Great Basin... As southwesterly flow aloft increases, several days of dry and breezy conditions are likely across the Southwest and southern High Plains. While some rain has temporarily limited available fuels, fire-weather concerns will return as dry conditions settle back into the region. At least Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected each day across portions of AZ and NM through the weekend. Higher probabilities for critical conditions are likely needed in future outlooks, as forecast guidance continues to converge. This currently appears to be across parts of southern NM this weekend as the main trough ejects. However, model guidance varies largely on timing and intensity of the upper trough and returning surface moisture. This suggests limited predictability for higher probabilities at this time. Across the southern Great Basin, several days of dry and breezy conditions are likely late this week and into next week. Area fuels have shown a response to drying over the past several days, and are likely to dry further through the period. While some threat for elevated to low-end critical fire-weather conditions is possible, uncertainty remains rather large. This will preclude the addition of probabilities for now, but some fire-weather threat may evolve. ...Southeastern US... Fire weather concerns will remain across FL as a subtropical high to the east support relatively dry easterly winds through early next week. Marine influence will mitigate fire-weather concerns along the Atlantic Coast, but central and western Florida could see relatively low daytime relative humidity of 30-40 percent. Persistent drought and dry fuels will promote at least Elevated fire-weather threat into the weekend. ..Lyons.. 04/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0159 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0159 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more