SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast over parts of the southern/central Plains today and tonight, with large hail and damaging winds possible. ...20z Update... The previous forecast generally remains on track with only minor adjustments needed. A slight westward expansion of 5% hail/wind probabilities across southeast CO where convective initiation is underway along the Raton Mesa upstream of a moist/unstable environment. A significant hail area has also been introduced for portions of western KS where backed low-level flow within a moderately unstable environment (MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg) should promote robust supercells with an attendant large/very large hail threat. Consideration was given to introducing significant hail/wind areas across parts of southwest TX; however, recent ACARS and RAP forecast soundings show somewhat weaker mid-level winds (15-20 knots) compared to yesterday when significant hail/wind occurred in a similar thermodynamic environment. This, combined with the potential for more limited convective coverage, limits confidence in a sufficiently widespread significant hail/wind threat to warrant additional probabilities. See the previous discussion and recently issued MCDs #527 and #528 for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025/ ...Central and Southern High Plains... Modest zonal flow pattern persists across the Plains states today, with only weak large scale forcing anticipated. However, strong heating across the High Plains, coupled with circulations along a diffuse dryline and forcing associated with the nocturnal low-level jet will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms from western KS into the TX Panhandle this afternoon and evening. The area of greatest concentration of storms will likely be over western KS, where model guidance shows greatest confidence in a strengthening low-level jet and some upper support. Storms should develop by late afternoon, with forecast soundings showing sufficient deep-layer shear for supercell structures. Large hail will be the main concern. Low-level moisture will be marginal, but enlarging hodographs by early evening could also support a risk of a few tornadoes. Farther south, thunderstorm coverage will be more widely scattered across the TX Panhandle into the Big Bend region. Nevertheless, steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient westerly flow aloft will pose a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds through the evening. ...Northeast KS... A small cluster of strong storms has developed this morning over central KS. Several morning CAM solutions suggest an increasing risk of thunderstorm development/intensification by mid-afternoon over northeast KS - in vicinity of a weak surface boundary. While this scenario is unclear, a few of these storms could pose a risk of large hail and gusty/damaging winds. ...Southeast States... Strong daytime heating will aid in destabilization across much of GA/SC this afternoon, with scattered thunderstorm development expected. Winds aloft are weak and storms should be relatively disorganized. However, cool temperatures aloft will aid in a few robust updrafts - posing some risk of hail and gusty winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast over parts of the southern/central Plains today and tonight, with large hail and damaging winds possible. ...20z Update... The previous forecast generally remains on track with only minor adjustments needed. A slight westward expansion of 5% hail/wind probabilities across southeast CO where convective initiation is underway along the Raton Mesa upstream of a moist/unstable environment. A significant hail area has also been introduced for portions of western KS where backed low-level flow within a moderately unstable environment (MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg) should promote robust supercells with an attendant large/very large hail threat. Consideration was given to introducing significant hail/wind areas across parts of southwest TX; however, recent ACARS and RAP forecast soundings show somewhat weaker mid-level winds (15-20 knots) compared to yesterday when significant hail/wind occurred in a similar thermodynamic environment. This, combined with the potential for more limited convective coverage, limits confidence in a sufficiently widespread significant hail/wind threat to warrant additional probabilities. See the previous discussion and recently issued MCDs #527 and #528 for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025/ ...Central and Southern High Plains... Modest zonal flow pattern persists across the Plains states today, with only weak large scale forcing anticipated. However, strong heating across the High Plains, coupled with circulations along a diffuse dryline and forcing associated with the nocturnal low-level jet will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms from western KS into the TX Panhandle this afternoon and evening. The area of greatest concentration of storms will likely be over western KS, where model guidance shows greatest confidence in a strengthening low-level jet and some upper support. Storms should develop by late afternoon, with forecast soundings showing sufficient deep-layer shear for supercell structures. Large hail will be the main concern. Low-level moisture will be marginal, but enlarging hodographs by early evening could also support a risk of a few tornadoes. Farther south, thunderstorm coverage will be more widely scattered across the TX Panhandle into the Big Bend region. Nevertheless, steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient westerly flow aloft will pose a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds through the evening. ...Northeast KS... A small cluster of strong storms has developed this morning over central KS. Several morning CAM solutions suggest an increasing risk of thunderstorm development/intensification by mid-afternoon over northeast KS - in vicinity of a weak surface boundary. While this scenario is unclear, a few of these storms could pose a risk of large hail and gusty/damaging winds. ...Southeast States... Strong daytime heating will aid in destabilization across much of GA/SC this afternoon, with scattered thunderstorm development expected. Winds aloft are weak and storms should be relatively disorganized. However, cool temperatures aloft will aid in a few robust updrafts - posing some risk of hail and gusty winds. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...20z Update... Minimal changes have been made to the prior outlook. Dry conditions are likely across parts of the Southwest and northeastern NM behind a sharpening lee trough/dryline. However, consensus model guidance suggests winds are unlikely to gust over 15-20 mph on a widespread basis. Additional elevated conditions are possible over parts of western FL where very warm temperatures and low RH will support some fire-weather risk. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 04/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the California coastline while generally upper-ridging builds over the central and eastern CONUS tomorrow (Thursday). Dry and occasionally breezy conditions are possible across parts of the Desert Southwest. However, the latest guidance consensus suggests that the surface wind field across Arizona into New Mexico will be too weak to warrant Elevated highlights at this time. Otherwise, another day of dry southeasterly winds will encourage Elevated wildfire-spread potential across western portions of the Florida Peninsula. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...20z Update... Minimal changes have been made to the prior outlook. Dry conditions are likely across parts of the Southwest and northeastern NM behind a sharpening lee trough/dryline. However, consensus model guidance suggests winds are unlikely to gust over 15-20 mph on a widespread basis. Additional elevated conditions are possible over parts of western FL where very warm temperatures and low RH will support some fire-weather risk. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 04/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the California coastline while generally upper-ridging builds over the central and eastern CONUS tomorrow (Thursday). Dry and occasionally breezy conditions are possible across parts of the Desert Southwest. However, the latest guidance consensus suggests that the surface wind field across Arizona into New Mexico will be too weak to warrant Elevated highlights at this time. Otherwise, another day of dry southeasterly winds will encourage Elevated wildfire-spread potential across western portions of the Florida Peninsula. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN TEXAS AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma and northwest Texas Friday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... An upper trough sweeping across Hudson Bay/Ontario/the Upper Great Lakes region Friday will drive deepening of a surface low initially over the southern Wisconsin vicinity. As it deepens, the low is forecast to shift east-northeastward across the Upper Great Lakes through the Day, and then across southern Ontario and into Quebec overnight. As this occurs, a surface cold front will shift southeastward across the Ohio Valley region, and more slowly southward across Oklahoma and the Ozarks region. Meanwhile in the West, an upper low over the eastern Pacific is forecast to deepen and shift southeastward toward the vicinity of the central California Coast overnight. As this occurs, downstream ridging will evolve/amplify across the central U.S. through the period. ...Southern Plains... Convection appears likely to be ongoing at the start of the period across the Oklahoma vicinity, in the vicinity of the sagging cold front. Despite increased ridging aloft, rather weak warm-sector capping will likely support at least isolated storm redevelopment, both near the front as it shifts southward across Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle/South Plains through the day, and near any remnant outflows from earlier/potentially ongoing convection. The combination of moderate instability and somewhat modest shear suggests only isolated severe risk -- mainly in the form of hail and locally gusty/damaging winds. Low-level jet development expected during the evening over the High Plains may help sustain convection through the overnight hours. ...Elsewhere... Scattered thunderstorms -- and perhaps a couple of stronger storms capable of producing gusty winds and small hail -- are expected across parts of the Great Lakes/Midwest/Mid South region, near and ahead of the aforementioned/advancing cold front. Modest CAPE is expected across the area, and with rather weak shear as well, any severe risk would likely remain quite limited/local. ..Goss.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN TEXAS AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma and northwest Texas Friday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... An upper trough sweeping across Hudson Bay/Ontario/the Upper Great Lakes region Friday will drive deepening of a surface low initially over the southern Wisconsin vicinity. As it deepens, the low is forecast to shift east-northeastward across the Upper Great Lakes through the Day, and then across southern Ontario and into Quebec overnight. As this occurs, a surface cold front will shift southeastward across the Ohio Valley region, and more slowly southward across Oklahoma and the Ozarks region. Meanwhile in the West, an upper low over the eastern Pacific is forecast to deepen and shift southeastward toward the vicinity of the central California Coast overnight. As this occurs, downstream ridging will evolve/amplify across the central U.S. through the period. ...Southern Plains... Convection appears likely to be ongoing at the start of the period across the Oklahoma vicinity, in the vicinity of the sagging cold front. Despite increased ridging aloft, rather weak warm-sector capping will likely support at least isolated storm redevelopment, both near the front as it shifts southward across Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle/South Plains through the day, and near any remnant outflows from earlier/potentially ongoing convection. The combination of moderate instability and somewhat modest shear suggests only isolated severe risk -- mainly in the form of hail and locally gusty/damaging winds. Low-level jet development expected during the evening over the High Plains may help sustain convection through the overnight hours. ...Elsewhere... Scattered thunderstorms -- and perhaps a couple of stronger storms capable of producing gusty winds and small hail -- are expected across parts of the Great Lakes/Midwest/Mid South region, near and ahead of the aforementioned/advancing cold front. Modest CAPE is expected across the area, and with rather weak shear as well, any severe risk would likely remain quite limited/local. ..Goss.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN COLORADO EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF KANSAS...AND SOUTHWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN/WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday from eastern Colorado into Kansas, and southward across west Texas and Oklahoma. Large hail and locally strong wind gusts will be possible with this activity. ...Synopsis... A broad zone of modest west-southwesterly flow aloft will prevail across most of the country again on Thursday, though faster flow is progged over New England in conjunction with a short-wave trough moving eastward across southern Quebec and -- eventually -- northern New England. A second trough, off the West Coast, is expected to pivot eastward toward the central and southern California coast through the second half of the period. At the surface, frontal wave development is forecast along a baroclinic zone extending from southwestern Kansas into the Upper Midwest, as a mid-level short-wave trough moves through the background west-southwesterlies. By evening, a weak low is forecast over the Iowa vicinity, with some southward progression of the trailing front across Kansas. Meanwhile, a dryline is forecast to mix eastward during the afternoon across the Texas Panhandle and South Plains areas, while remaining more stationary but sharpening across the Davis Mountains area. The aforementioned front, and the dryline, should both focus diurnal increases in thunderstorm activity. ...Eastern Colorado and Kansas south across Oklahoma and northern/western Texas... Thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period across portions of the MRGL risk area, including western Kansas and potentially portions of the Concho Valley area of Texas. The Texas convection is forecast to weaken with time, though the Kansas storms -- occurring in the vicinity of the surface baroclinic zone -- may persist through the day. By afternoon, as heating of the moist warm sector contributes to moderate destabilization, additional storm development/intensification is forecast across southern Kansas, and southward along the dryline mixing across western Texas. While deep-layer flow across the region is forecast to remain somewhat weak/sub-optimal in terms of more robust severe potential, veering winds with height should contribute to ample shear for mid-level rotation with developing storms. Large hail and locally damaging winds can be expected with the strongest cells. Though tornado risk will remain limited overall, slightly greater potential may evolve across the southwestern Kansas/northwestern Oklahoma area, and adjacent, eastern portions of the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. Here, near a weak low at the intersection of the surface front and the dryline, backed low-level flow and slightly stronger mid-level west-southwesterlies may support potential for a tornado during the afternoon/early evening. Storms across this area may congeal/grow upscale during the evening, spreading eastward across the Oklahoma/North Texas area as a low-level jet nocturnally increases. Attendant, local risk for hail/wind may persist through the evening. ..Goss.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN COLORADO EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF KANSAS...AND SOUTHWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN/WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday from eastern Colorado into Kansas, and southward across west Texas and Oklahoma. Large hail and locally strong wind gusts will be possible with this activity. ...Synopsis... A broad zone of modest west-southwesterly flow aloft will prevail across most of the country again on Thursday, though faster flow is progged over New England in conjunction with a short-wave trough moving eastward across southern Quebec and -- eventually -- northern New England. A second trough, off the West Coast, is expected to pivot eastward toward the central and southern California coast through the second half of the period. At the surface, frontal wave development is forecast along a baroclinic zone extending from southwestern Kansas into the Upper Midwest, as a mid-level short-wave trough moves through the background west-southwesterlies. By evening, a weak low is forecast over the Iowa vicinity, with some southward progression of the trailing front across Kansas. Meanwhile, a dryline is forecast to mix eastward during the afternoon across the Texas Panhandle and South Plains areas, while remaining more stationary but sharpening across the Davis Mountains area. The aforementioned front, and the dryline, should both focus diurnal increases in thunderstorm activity. ...Eastern Colorado and Kansas south across Oklahoma and northern/western Texas... Thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period across portions of the MRGL risk area, including western Kansas and potentially portions of the Concho Valley area of Texas. The Texas convection is forecast to weaken with time, though the Kansas storms -- occurring in the vicinity of the surface baroclinic zone -- may persist through the day. By afternoon, as heating of the moist warm sector contributes to moderate destabilization, additional storm development/intensification is forecast across southern Kansas, and southward along the dryline mixing across western Texas. While deep-layer flow across the region is forecast to remain somewhat weak/sub-optimal in terms of more robust severe potential, veering winds with height should contribute to ample shear for mid-level rotation with developing storms. Large hail and locally damaging winds can be expected with the strongest cells. Though tornado risk will remain limited overall, slightly greater potential may evolve across the southwestern Kansas/northwestern Oklahoma area, and adjacent, eastern portions of the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. Here, near a weak low at the intersection of the surface front and the dryline, backed low-level flow and slightly stronger mid-level west-southwesterlies may support potential for a tornado during the afternoon/early evening. Storms across this area may congeal/grow upscale during the evening, spreading eastward across the Oklahoma/North Texas area as a low-level jet nocturnally increases. Attendant, local risk for hail/wind may persist through the evening. ..Goss.. 04/23/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Apr 23 17:25:02 UTC 2025.

MD 0526 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF CNTRL AND EASTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0526 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Areas affected...parts of cntrl and eastern Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 231654Z - 231930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Intensifying thunderstorm activity may be accompanied by increasing potential to produce severe hail and locally damaging surface gusts, mainly toward 2-4 PM CDT and later this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Above a modestly moist boundary layer (characterized by mid/upper 50s F surface dew points), within broad surface troughing across the central and southern Great Plains, forecast soundings suggest that a subsidence induced warm/dry layer between 850-700 mb is still contributing to substantial inhibition across central into eastern Kansas. However, thunderstorm activity has recently initiated in a small cluster north of Hutchinson. Even if this activity is rooted close to the surface, and being forced through the capping layer, CAPE within/above the mixed-phase layer still appears modest, with weak shear beneath 10-15+ kt westerly 500 mb flow also likely to limit potential for large hail growth. Latest objective analysis, though, does indicate a corridor of increasing boundary-layer destabilization, roughly along Interstate 70 near/east of Concordia, in response to continuing insolation and some further moistening aided by weak low-level convergence. As this boundary-layer destabilization progresses (and lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates become rather steep), weakening mid-level inhibition may allow for intensifying thunderstorm activity with increasing potential to produce severe hail and locally damaging wind gusts. ..Kerr/Hart.. 04/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...GID... LAT...LON 39709815 39789622 39619499 38659484 38479620 37969696 38129791 38999807 39709815 MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...1630Z update... Current and expected surface observations across the Florida Peninsula suggest a more limited fire weather threat across the area today. Fuels remain very dry with relative humidity expected to drop into the 30-40 percent range this afternoon across the western Florida Peninsula. However, stronger east-southeast winds associated with the Atlantic sea breeze will coincide with a fairly rapid rise in relative humidity with limited overlap of dry and breezy conditions across western Florida. Therefore, Elevated highlights were removed for this afternoon. Dry and breezy conditions remain across portions of the Southwest with Elevated highlights remaining in place, although lighter than expected winds prompted some trimming of Elevated highlights across the Trans Pecos area. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A broad but weak cyclonic upper flow regime will overspread the western CONUS as zonal flow aloft becomes established over the Northern Plains to the Northeast today. An embedded mid-level impulse will pivot around the cyclonic flow and track over the southern High Plains by afternoon, with dry downslope flow developing across southeast Arizona into Far West Texas as a low-level mass response. 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 10-15 percent RH will promote conditions favorable for wildfire-spread, with Elevated highlights introduced where fuels are dry/unaffected by recent rainfall. Meanwhile, dry and breezy conditions are likely across western parts of the Florida Peninsula by afternoon peak heating. 10-15 mph sustained southeasterly winds will coincide with 30-40 percent RH atop dry fuels, warranting Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...1630Z update... Current and expected surface observations across the Florida Peninsula suggest a more limited fire weather threat across the area today. Fuels remain very dry with relative humidity expected to drop into the 30-40 percent range this afternoon across the western Florida Peninsula. However, stronger east-southeast winds associated with the Atlantic sea breeze will coincide with a fairly rapid rise in relative humidity with limited overlap of dry and breezy conditions across western Florida. Therefore, Elevated highlights were removed for this afternoon. Dry and breezy conditions remain across portions of the Southwest with Elevated highlights remaining in place, although lighter than expected winds prompted some trimming of Elevated highlights across the Trans Pecos area. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A broad but weak cyclonic upper flow regime will overspread the western CONUS as zonal flow aloft becomes established over the Northern Plains to the Northeast today. An embedded mid-level impulse will pivot around the cyclonic flow and track over the southern High Plains by afternoon, with dry downslope flow developing across southeast Arizona into Far West Texas as a low-level mass response. 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 10-15 percent RH will promote conditions favorable for wildfire-spread, with Elevated highlights introduced where fuels are dry/unaffected by recent rainfall. Meanwhile, dry and breezy conditions are likely across western parts of the Florida Peninsula by afternoon peak heating. 10-15 mph sustained southeasterly winds will coincide with 30-40 percent RH atop dry fuels, warranting Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast over parts of the southern/central Plains today and tonight, with large hail and damaging winds possible. ...Central and Southern High Plains... Modest zonal flow pattern persists across the Plains states today, with only weak large scale forcing anticipated. However, strong heating across the High Plains, coupled with circulations along a diffuse dryline and forcing associated with the nocturnal low-level jet will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms from western KS into the TX Panhandle this afternoon and evening. The area of greatest concentration of storms will likely be over western KS, where model guidance shows greatest confidence in a strengthening low-level jet and some upper support. Storms should develop by late afternoon, with forecast soundings showing sufficient deep-layer shear for supercell structures. Large hail will be the main concern. Low-level moisture will be marginal, but enlarging hodographs by early evening could also support a risk of a few tornadoes. Farther south, thunderstorm coverage will be more widely scattered across the TX Panhandle into the Big Bend region. Nevertheless, steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient westerly flow aloft will pose a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds through the evening. ...Northeast KS... A small cluster of strong storms has developed this morning over central KS. Several morning CAM solutions suggest an increasing risk of thunderstorm development/intensification by mid-afternoon over northeast KS - in vicinity of a weak surface boundary. While this scenario is unclear, a few of these storms could pose a risk of large hail and gusty/damaging winds. ...Southeast States... Strong daytime heating will aid in destabilization across much of GA/SC this afternoon, with scattered thunderstorm development expected. Winds aloft are weak and storms should be relatively disorganized. However, cool temperatures aloft will aid in a few robust updrafts - posing some risk of hail and gusty winds. ..Hart/Thornton.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast over parts of the southern/central Plains today and tonight, with large hail and damaging winds possible. ...Central and Southern High Plains... Modest zonal flow pattern persists across the Plains states today, with only weak large scale forcing anticipated. However, strong heating across the High Plains, coupled with circulations along a diffuse dryline and forcing associated with the nocturnal low-level jet will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms from western KS into the TX Panhandle this afternoon and evening. The area of greatest concentration of storms will likely be over western KS, where model guidance shows greatest confidence in a strengthening low-level jet and some upper support. Storms should develop by late afternoon, with forecast soundings showing sufficient deep-layer shear for supercell structures. Large hail will be the main concern. Low-level moisture will be marginal, but enlarging hodographs by early evening could also support a risk of a few tornadoes. Farther south, thunderstorm coverage will be more widely scattered across the TX Panhandle into the Big Bend region. Nevertheless, steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient westerly flow aloft will pose a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds through the evening. ...Northeast KS... A small cluster of strong storms has developed this morning over central KS. Several morning CAM solutions suggest an increasing risk of thunderstorm development/intensification by mid-afternoon over northeast KS - in vicinity of a weak surface boundary. While this scenario is unclear, a few of these storms could pose a risk of large hail and gusty/damaging winds. ...Southeast States... Strong daytime heating will aid in destabilization across much of GA/SC this afternoon, with scattered thunderstorm development expected. Winds aloft are weak and storms should be relatively disorganized. However, cool temperatures aloft will aid in a few robust updrafts - posing some risk of hail and gusty winds. ..Hart/Thornton.. 04/23/2025 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Apr 23 13:19:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast over parts of the southern/central Plains today and tonight, with large hail and damaging winds possible. ...Southern/Central Plains... Convective clusters have persisted through the early morning hours across parts of TX, aided by modest low-level warm/moist advection. This activity has generally weakened, but it could still pose some threat for mainly isolated gusty winds towards the ArkLaTex and Upper TX Coast. In its wake, a convectively overturned airmass will exist today over much of central TX, while modified low-level moisture will once again advect west-northwestward over the southern/central High Plains. A similar convective scenario to yesterday remains apparent, with generally modest west-southwesterly mid-level flow present over much of the southern/central Plains. Multiple low-amplitude perturbations should advance east-northeastward in this regime across the central CONUS through the period. At the surface, a front draped southwest to northeast over the central Plains and a dryline extending southward over the southern Plains should both serve as foci for convective initiation later today. Steep mid-level lapse rates are once again expected to be in place across the warm sector. Diurnal heating of a modestly moist low-level airmass in combination with these steep lapse rates should aid in the development of moderate to locally strong instability by mid afternoon. Weak low-level winds veering and gradually strengthening with height through mid/upper levels will foster around 25-35 kt of effective bulk shear, which should be adequate for modest convective organization. Current expectations are for isolated to scattered thunderstorms to once again develop along both the front and dryline by mid to late afternoon. A mix of multicells and slow-moving supercells is anticipated, with associated threats for both severe/damaging winds and large hail. The Slight Risk has been expanded northeastward across KS and into far southern NE based on latest guidance trends showing greater coverage of potentially intense thunderstorms this afternoon/evening along and near the front. The potential for thunderstorms to grow upscale into one or more clusters this evening remains uncertain owing to weak large-scale forcing for ascent. Even so, a strengthening low-level jet overnight may aid in convective longevity and a continued threat for isolated damaging winds. ...Upper Midwest... Daytime heating along with a plume of modest low-level moisture along/near a surface front should aid in the development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. Steep lapse rates aloft and favorable deep-layer shear may support isolated hail and gusty winds with this activity through the early evening, before it eventually weakens with the loss of daytime heating. ...Southeast... Isolated instances of marginally severe hail and/or damaging winds may occur with convection forecast to increase in coverage this afternoon across parts of the Southeast along/south of a remnant surface front. Generally modest flow aloft and weak deep-layer shear should keep the overall severe threat fairly isolated/marginal. ..Gleason/Broyles.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast over parts of the southern/central Plains today and tonight, with large hail and damaging winds possible. ...Southern/Central Plains... Convective clusters have persisted through the early morning hours across parts of TX, aided by modest low-level warm/moist advection. This activity has generally weakened, but it could still pose some threat for mainly isolated gusty winds towards the ArkLaTex and Upper TX Coast. In its wake, a convectively overturned airmass will exist today over much of central TX, while modified low-level moisture will once again advect west-northwestward over the southern/central High Plains. A similar convective scenario to yesterday remains apparent, with generally modest west-southwesterly mid-level flow present over much of the southern/central Plains. Multiple low-amplitude perturbations should advance east-northeastward in this regime across the central CONUS through the period. At the surface, a front draped southwest to northeast over the central Plains and a dryline extending southward over the southern Plains should both serve as foci for convective initiation later today. Steep mid-level lapse rates are once again expected to be in place across the warm sector. Diurnal heating of a modestly moist low-level airmass in combination with these steep lapse rates should aid in the development of moderate to locally strong instability by mid afternoon. Weak low-level winds veering and gradually strengthening with height through mid/upper levels will foster around 25-35 kt of effective bulk shear, which should be adequate for modest convective organization. Current expectations are for isolated to scattered thunderstorms to once again develop along both the front and dryline by mid to late afternoon. A mix of multicells and slow-moving supercells is anticipated, with associated threats for both severe/damaging winds and large hail. The Slight Risk has been expanded northeastward across KS and into far southern NE based on latest guidance trends showing greater coverage of potentially intense thunderstorms this afternoon/evening along and near the front. The potential for thunderstorms to grow upscale into one or more clusters this evening remains uncertain owing to weak large-scale forcing for ascent. Even so, a strengthening low-level jet overnight may aid in convective longevity and a continued threat for isolated damaging winds. ...Upper Midwest... Daytime heating along with a plume of modest low-level moisture along/near a surface front should aid in the development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. Steep lapse rates aloft and favorable deep-layer shear may support isolated hail and gusty winds with this activity through the early evening, before it eventually weakens with the loss of daytime heating. ...Southeast... Isolated instances of marginally severe hail and/or damaging winds may occur with convection forecast to increase in coverage this afternoon across parts of the Southeast along/south of a remnant surface front. Generally modest flow aloft and weak deep-layer shear should keep the overall severe threat fairly isolated/marginal. ..Gleason/Broyles.. 04/23/2025 Read more

WW 0161 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 161 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W HDO TO 30 NW BAZ TO 30 W TPL TO 15 NW SEP TO 20 ESE SPS. ..BROYLES..04/23/25 ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 161 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC035-097-143-163-193-221-237-325-337-363-367-425-497-507- 230940- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOSQUE COOKE ERATH FRIO HAMILTON HOOD JACK MEDINA MONTAGUE PALO PINTO PARKER SOMERVELL WISE ZAVALA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 161 SEVERE TSTM TX 230500Z - 231200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 161 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of North-Central and Central Texas * Effective this Wednesday morning from Midnight until 700 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A pair of convective lines will continue to progress eastward/southeastward over the next few hours. Some cellular development is possible between these two lines. Strong gusts will be the primary severe risk with these storms tonight, but some large hail is possible as well. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles east and west of a line from 125 miles south of Brownwood TX to 65 miles north northwest of Fort Worth TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 160... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Mosier Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Days 5-7/Sun-Tue -- Great Plains to the Midwest... Forecast guidance is in good agreement that a deepening upper trough over the western states will eject eastward across the Plains and Midwest early next week. Beginning Day 5/Sun, the upper trough will extend from the central Rockies to the Southwest, with a belt of strong southeasterly flow emerging over the central/southern High Plains Sunday night. Surface lee low development is forecast over the northern/central Plains Sunday afternoon, with the low moving into SD/NE by Monday morning. Southerly low-level flow will transport ample moisture northward across the Plains and Mid-MO Valley on Sunday, with a sharpening dryline extending southward from western NE into western TX. Some severe potential could develop along the dryline and near the surface low/triple point. However, forecast soundings maintain strong capping and any convective development could be rather sparse. For now, this will preclude severe probabilities for Day 5/Sun. On Day 6/Mon, the upper trough will continue eastward, moving into the Plains by Tuesday morning. Ahead of the trough, a belt of strong southwesterly flow aloft will extend from OK into the Upper Midwest. A deepening surface low over SD will shift east/northeast through the period, with a trailing cold front shifting east/southeast across the Plains. Rich boundary layer moisture within a moderate to strongly unstable airmass and favorable shear parameter space will support an all-hazards severe weather episode across a fairly broad area from OK to MN/WI Monday afternoon into Monday night. Severe potential is likely to continue into Day 7/Tue, though some differences within medium range guidance with the evolution of the upper trough and key surface features does result in a bit more uncertainty compared to Monday, especially on the eastward extent of severe potential. Nevertheless, strong forcing atop a broad warm sector ahead of an eastward advancing cold front will continue to support severe potential from northeast Texas into Lower MI. Read more