WW 168 SEVERE TSTM NM TX 242100Z - 250300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 168 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 400 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Far Southeast New Mexico West Texas * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 400 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms are forecast to develop through the late afternoon and early evening. The stronger storms will likely become supercellular and pose mainly a threat for large to very large hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 65 miles north northwest of Big Spring TX to 25 miles west southwest of Dryden TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 166...WW 167... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 31015. ...Smith Read more

WW 0167 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0167 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 167 TORNADO OK TX 242035Z - 250400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 167 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 335 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Oklahoma Panhandle Texas Panhandle and South Plains * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 335 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 4 inches in diameter likely Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to rapidly develop this afternoon into the early evening. Environmental shear and buoyancy combinations strongly favor intense, discrete supercells. Large to giant hail will be probable with any supercell. The tornado risk will likely focus for a few hours during the early evening near a residual outflow boundary draped over parts of the Watch area. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles northeast of Guymon OK to 60 miles southeast of Lubbock TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 166... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 4 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 29015. ...Smith Read more

WW 0166 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0166 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 166 SEVERE TSTM TX 241955Z - 250100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 166 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 255 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central into East Texas * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 255 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A linear cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms will likely continue east across much of the Watch area this afternoon into the early evening. Severe gusts 60-70 mph appear to be the primary hazard, but large hail may accompany the stronger cells on the southwestern flank of the thunderstorm band. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles west of Temple TX to 25 miles east of Lufkin TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28030. ...Smith Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND CAPROCK... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TO EASTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast late this afternoon into tonight across the southern High Plains. Large to very large hail is likely with the stronger storms. A couple of tornadoes are possible, in addition to isolated severe wind gusts. ...20z Update... The primary change for this forecast update was the introduction of 15% wind probabilities (i.e. Slight risk) across portions of central and eastern TX downstream of an intensifying MCS with a history of measured severe gusts over the past couple of hours. A severe wind threat is expected to persist into the evening hours before the MCS gradually weakens late this evening/early overnight. See MCD #543 for additional details. Additionally, hail/wind risk probabilities were removed across portions of north/northeast TX and eastern OK. Latest RAP mesoanalysis estimates show a buoyancy minimum over the region in the wake of the ongoing MCS. Air mass recovery appears improbable given current cloud cover and observed temperature trends within the residual cold pool. Recent CAM guidance supports this idea and shows limited potential for additional robust convection during the overnight hours. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track as outlined in the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 04/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025/ ...Southern/Central Plains... Visible-satellite imagery shows a modifying outflow boundary draped across the portions of the TX High Plains. The 12z Del Rio raob showed seasonably high boundary layer moisture (14.9 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio). This upper-air raob sampled the moist axis extending from the Rio Grande Valley northwestward through the Permian Basin, South Plains, and into the Panhandle. Water-vapor imagery shows a weak disturbance currently moving east across southern CO/northern NM. The timing of this disturbance appears favorably timed to influence thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening in the vicinity of the dryline. Strong heating beneath a capping inversion and a moistening boundary layer will likely contribute to eroding CINH by mid afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient deep-layer westerly flow (25-kt at 500 mb increasing to 80-kt at 200 mb) for organized storms. Some relatively backed low-level south-southeasterly flow will probably be maintained east of the Caprock, aiding in some hodograph enlargement. Models show discrete storm development initially, with some of this activity perhaps merging into a cluster towards the evening over the eastern TX Panhandle/western OK vicinity. Large to giant hail is possible with the stronger supercells during the late afternoon into the evening. A couple of tornadoes are also possible during a brief window of opportunity (23z-02z), in addition to the risk for at least isolated severe gusts perhaps lingering tonight as this activity spreads east. Farther north, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will probably develop from parts of eastern CO (in a weak low-level upslope flow regime) into the OK Panhandle and eventually southwest KS. A mixed mode of supercells and multicells should occur, with large to very large hail possible with any slow-moving supercells. Severe/damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can develop through the evening, although this threat may tend to remain fairly isolated. Farther south, a midday thunderstorm cluster over central into northeast TX will continue to migrate slowly eastward through the afternoon. Isolated damaging gusts and perhaps large hail will be possible with this activity. For short-term convective details, refer to MCD #540. ...Southeast Nebraska into Iowa... A convectively augmented/low-amplitude shortwave trough will move northeastward from parts of southeast NE into IA and vicinity today. Although low-level moisture should remain fairly limited, it is forecast to gradually increase along/south of a front by this afternoon. Any thunderstorms that can develop and spread northeastward could pose an isolated hail/wind threat given sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND CAPROCK... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TO EASTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast late this afternoon into tonight across the southern High Plains. Large to very large hail is likely with the stronger storms. A couple of tornadoes are possible, in addition to isolated severe wind gusts. ...20z Update... The primary change for this forecast update was the introduction of 15% wind probabilities (i.e. Slight risk) across portions of central and eastern TX downstream of an intensifying MCS with a history of measured severe gusts over the past couple of hours. A severe wind threat is expected to persist into the evening hours before the MCS gradually weakens late this evening/early overnight. See MCD #543 for additional details. Additionally, hail/wind risk probabilities were removed across portions of north/northeast TX and eastern OK. Latest RAP mesoanalysis estimates show a buoyancy minimum over the region in the wake of the ongoing MCS. Air mass recovery appears improbable given current cloud cover and observed temperature trends within the residual cold pool. Recent CAM guidance supports this idea and shows limited potential for additional robust convection during the overnight hours. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track as outlined in the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 04/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025/ ...Southern/Central Plains... Visible-satellite imagery shows a modifying outflow boundary draped across the portions of the TX High Plains. The 12z Del Rio raob showed seasonably high boundary layer moisture (14.9 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio). This upper-air raob sampled the moist axis extending from the Rio Grande Valley northwestward through the Permian Basin, South Plains, and into the Panhandle. Water-vapor imagery shows a weak disturbance currently moving east across southern CO/northern NM. The timing of this disturbance appears favorably timed to influence thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening in the vicinity of the dryline. Strong heating beneath a capping inversion and a moistening boundary layer will likely contribute to eroding CINH by mid afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient deep-layer westerly flow (25-kt at 500 mb increasing to 80-kt at 200 mb) for organized storms. Some relatively backed low-level south-southeasterly flow will probably be maintained east of the Caprock, aiding in some hodograph enlargement. Models show discrete storm development initially, with some of this activity perhaps merging into a cluster towards the evening over the eastern TX Panhandle/western OK vicinity. Large to giant hail is possible with the stronger supercells during the late afternoon into the evening. A couple of tornadoes are also possible during a brief window of opportunity (23z-02z), in addition to the risk for at least isolated severe gusts perhaps lingering tonight as this activity spreads east. Farther north, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will probably develop from parts of eastern CO (in a weak low-level upslope flow regime) into the OK Panhandle and eventually southwest KS. A mixed mode of supercells and multicells should occur, with large to very large hail possible with any slow-moving supercells. Severe/damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can develop through the evening, although this threat may tend to remain fairly isolated. Farther south, a midday thunderstorm cluster over central into northeast TX will continue to migrate slowly eastward through the afternoon. Isolated damaging gusts and perhaps large hail will be possible with this activity. For short-term convective details, refer to MCD #540. ...Southeast Nebraska into Iowa... A convectively augmented/low-amplitude shortwave trough will move northeastward from parts of southeast NE into IA and vicinity today. Although low-level moisture should remain fairly limited, it is forecast to gradually increase along/south of a front by this afternoon. Any thunderstorms that can develop and spread northeastward could pose an isolated hail/wind threat given sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z Slight modifications were made to the existing Elevated fire weather threat area across portions of southeastern Arizona into New Mexico. Residual outflow boundary moisture from convection expected this afternoon across the Southern High Plains combined with south-southeast flow should keep fire weather threat limited across southeastern New Mexico. Therefore, Elevated highlights for Friday were trimmed for this area. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0127 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will slowly advance eastward across the Southwest while another mid-level trough amplifies over the Great Lakes tomorrow (Friday). Surface cyclone development is possible across portions of the Great Basin Friday afternoon, encouraging warm and dry southerly flow across eastern Arizona into central and southern New Mexico. Sustained 15-20 mph southerly surface winds will coincide with 15 percent RH and overspread dry fuels for several hours, warranting the introduction of Elevated highlights. Dry conditions will also persist across portions of the Mid-Atlantic. While the surface wind field is expected to be too weak on a widespread basis to justify Elevated highlights, locally breezy conditions overspreading dry fuel beds will exacerbate any localized wildfire-spread potential that exists. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z Slight modifications were made to the existing Elevated fire weather threat area across portions of southeastern Arizona into New Mexico. Residual outflow boundary moisture from convection expected this afternoon across the Southern High Plains combined with south-southeast flow should keep fire weather threat limited across southeastern New Mexico. Therefore, Elevated highlights for Friday were trimmed for this area. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0127 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will slowly advance eastward across the Southwest while another mid-level trough amplifies over the Great Lakes tomorrow (Friday). Surface cyclone development is possible across portions of the Great Basin Friday afternoon, encouraging warm and dry southerly flow across eastern Arizona into central and southern New Mexico. Sustained 15-20 mph southerly surface winds will coincide with 15 percent RH and overspread dry fuels for several hours, warranting the introduction of Elevated highlights. Dry conditions will also persist across portions of the Mid-Atlantic. While the surface wind field is expected to be too weak on a widespread basis to justify Elevated highlights, locally breezy conditions overspreading dry fuel beds will exacerbate any localized wildfire-spread potential that exists. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday across portions of eastern New Mexico into western Texas. ...Discussion... Convection is forecast to be ongoing across portions of the central and southern Plains Saturday morning, near and north of a surface baroclinic zone progged to lie roughly west-to-east western Texas and Oklahoma to the Tennessee Valley. With the upper pattern across the western 2/3 of the U.S. to remain largely unchanged, with ridging over the central U.S. and only very slow eastward progression of the western U.S. upper low, the front should remain roughly quasi-stationary Saturday. This suggests potential for storm redevelopment/reintensification during the afternoon, as heating/destabilization maximize. While background large-scale subsidence should limit coverage of convection diurnally, a couple of stronger storms capable of producing severe-caliber hail and/or wind are expected. ..Goss.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday across portions of eastern New Mexico into western Texas. ...Discussion... Convection is forecast to be ongoing across portions of the central and southern Plains Saturday morning, near and north of a surface baroclinic zone progged to lie roughly west-to-east western Texas and Oklahoma to the Tennessee Valley. With the upper pattern across the western 2/3 of the U.S. to remain largely unchanged, with ridging over the central U.S. and only very slow eastward progression of the western U.S. upper low, the front should remain roughly quasi-stationary Saturday. This suggests potential for storm redevelopment/reintensification during the afternoon, as heating/destabilization maximize. While background large-scale subsidence should limit coverage of convection diurnally, a couple of stronger storms capable of producing severe-caliber hail and/or wind are expected. ..Goss.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...NORTHERN AND WESTERN TEXAS...AND FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma, northwest Texas, and extreme eastern New Mexico Friday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... An upper trough progressing east-southeastward across Ontario and the Upper Great Lakes region Friday will support surface cyclogenesis over the Lower Michigan area. As the low develops/shifts eastward with time, a surface cold front will advance southeastward across the Ohio and Mid Mississippi Valleys, and more slowly southward across the Oklahoma area. Meanwhile in the West, an upper low over the eastern Pacific will deepen and shift southeastward, reaching the central California Coast overnight. In response, downstream ridging will amplify across the central U.S. through the period. ...Southern Plains... Convection may be ongoing at the start of the period across parts of the Oklahoma/Kansas area, in the vicinity of the sagging cold front. Despite ridging aloft, rather weak warm-sector capping should support isolated to scattered storm redevelopment by afternoon, particularly near the front as it shifts southward across Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle/South Plains through the day. Moderate afternoon destabilization, but modest shear, and large-scale ridging, suggests only isolated severe risk -- mainly in the form of hail and locally gusty/damaging winds. Low-level jet development expected during the evening over the High Plains may help sustain convection through the overnight hours. ...Elsewhere... Scattered thunderstorms -- and perhaps a couple of stronger storms capable of producing gusty winds and small hail -- are expected across parts of the Great Lakes/Midwest/Mid South region, near and ahead of the aforementioned/advancing cold front. Modest CAPE is expected across the area, and with rather weak shear as well, any severe risk would likely remain quite limited/local. ..Goss.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND CAPROCK... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast late this afternoon into tonight across the southern High Plains. Large to very large hail is likely with the stronger storms. A couple of tornadoes are possible, in addition to isolated severe wind gusts. ...Southern/Central Plains... Visible-satellite imagery shows a modifying outflow boundary draped across the portions of the TX High Plains. The 12z Del Rio raob showed seasonably high boundary layer moisture (14.9 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio). This upper-air raob sampled the moist axis extending from the Rio Grande Valley northwestward through the Permian Basin, South Plains, and into the Panhandle. Water-vapor imagery shows a weak disturbance currently moving east across southern CO/northern NM. The timing of this disturbance appears favorably timed to influence thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening in the vicinity of the dryline. Strong heating beneath a capping inversion and a moistening boundary layer will likely contribute to eroding CINH by mid afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient deep-layer westerly flow (25-kt at 500 mb increasing to 80-kt at 200 mb) for organized storms. Some relatively backed low-level south-southeasterly flow will probably be maintained east of the Caprock, aiding in some hodograph enlargement. Models show discrete storm development initially, with some of this activity perhaps merging into a cluster towards the evening over the eastern TX Panhandle/western OK vicinity. Large to giant hail is possible with the stronger supercells during the late afternoon into the evening. A couple of tornadoes are also possible during a brief window of opportunity (23z-02z), in addition to the risk for at least isolated severe gusts perhaps lingering tonight as this activity spreads east. Farther north, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will probably develop from parts of eastern CO (in a weak low-level upslope flow regime) into the OK Panhandle and eventually southwest KS. A mixed mode of supercells and multicells should occur, with large to very large hail possible with any slow-moving supercells. Severe/damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can develop through the evening, although this threat may tend to remain fairly isolated. Farther south, a midday thunderstorm cluster over central into northeast TX will continue to migrate slowly eastward through the afternoon. Isolated damaging gusts and perhaps large hail will be possible with this activity. For short-term convective details, refer to MCD #540. ...Southeast Nebraska into Iowa... A convectively augmented/low-amplitude shortwave trough will move northeastward from parts of southeast NE into IA and vicinity today. Although low-level moisture should remain fairly limited, it is forecast to gradually increase along/south of a front by this afternoon. Any thunderstorms that can develop and spread northeastward could pose an isolated hail/wind threat given sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization. ..Smith/Thornton.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...Northeast New Mexico... Downslope enhancement and drying off the Sangre De Cristo Mountains should support a few hours of Elevated fire weather conditions across portions of northeastern New Mexico this afternoon. Elevated highlights were added to reflect expected breezy southwest winds coupled with a very dry, well-mixed boundary layer supporting afternoon relative humidity as low as 10 percent. ...Florida... A steady east-southeast wind, relative humidity in the 30-40 percent range this afternoon along with very dry fuels will continue to support Elevated fire weather conditions across portions of the western Florida Peninsula. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will traverse New England and eject into the Atlantic as another mid-level trough amplifies along the West Coast today. Surface high pressure and overall cooler temperatures will overspread much of the northern U.S. while broad surface troughing and associated low-level moisture return becomes established from the Great Plains to the East Coast. As such, relatively quiescent fire weather conditions are expected over much of the U.S. today. Dry conditions will persist across the Desert Southwest, but surface wind fields should be too weak to necessitate Elevated highlights. Some dry and breezy conditions are possible across the western Florida Peninsula, where 30-40 percent RH will overlap with 10-15 mph sustained southeasterly surface winds by afternoon peak heating. Elevated highlights have been maintained in this area given dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Apr 24 14:01:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Apr 24 14:01:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today and tonight across parts of the southern/central Plains. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts may occur with this activity. ...Southern/Central Plains... Aided by modest low-level warm/moist advection, an expansive but slow-moving MCS has persisted through the early-morning hours across south-central OK into north-central TX. Isolated damaging winds may occur with this activity through the morning as it spreads southeastward across a moist but weakly unstable airmass. The potential for the MCS to either restrengthen, or for additional robust convection to develop along its outflow this afternoon remains rather uncertain. Even so, the downstream airmass should gradually destabilize through the day, and both damaging winds and hail may occur with the MCS if it can maintain surface-based inflow. Have therefore expanded the Marginal Risk eastward towards the ArkLaTex and east TX to account for this scenario. Greater severe probabilities may need to be considered if it becomes clear that the MCS will produce swaths of damaging winds later today. Otherwise, another day of isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms is forecast across the southern/central High Plains. A broad zone of modestly enhanced west-southwesterly mid-flow will persist across these regions though the period, with multiple convectively augmented vorticity maxima present. A front extending northeastward across KS from a weak low in far southeast CO, along with a dryline extending southward from the low across the southern High Plains, should once again help focus convective initiation later today. Even with multiple prior days of convection occurring, the northeastward advection of an EML over the Southwest will provide steepened mid-level lapse rates across the warm sector. Daytime heating of the moist low-level airmass, in concert with the steep lapse rates aloft, will support at least moderate instability along/south of the convectively reinforced front and east of the dryline by mid afternoon. While deep-layer shear should remain fairly modest, it will still be sufficient for organized updrafts. Current expectations are for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms to form from parts of eastern CO (in a weak low-level upslope flow regime) into the OK/TX Panhandles and west TX along/east of the dryline. Similar to prior days, a mixed mode of supercells and multicells should occur, with large to very large hail possible with any slow-moving supercells. Severe/damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can develop through the evening, although this threat may tend to remain fairly isolated. A tornado or two also appears possible, especially with any sustained supercell this evening near the front/dryline intersection across southwest KS into the eastern OK/TX Panhandle vicinity. Based on extensive convection that occurred overnight across western KS, the northern extent of the Slight Risk has been adjusted some across the central Plains. ...Southeast Nebraska into Iowa... A convectively augmented/low-amplitude shortwave trough will move northeastward from parts of southeast NE into IA and vicinity today. Although low-level moisture should remain fairly limited, it is forecast to gradually increase along/south of a front by this afternoon. Any thunderstorms that can develop and spread northeastward could pose an isolated hail/wind threat given sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization. ..Gleason/Broyles.. 04/24/2025 Read more

MD 0539 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS...SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0539 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0637 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Areas affected...Central and North Texas...Southern Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 241137Z - 241400Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A severe threat may continue across parts of central and north Texas this morning. Isolated severe gusts and hail will be the primary threats. The potential for weather watch issuance is low. DISCUSSION...Mosaic radar imagery shows a line of strong thunderstorms located from southern Oklahoma into north Texas, with a linear cluster extending southward into central Texas. The storms are located near a moist axis where surface dewpoints are in the mid to upper 60s F. Across the moist airmass, the RAP is estimating MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. The instability, combined with large-scale ascent ahead of a shortwave trough and warm advection are supporting the storms. In addition, the FWS WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 km shear has 30 to 35 knots with some directional shear in the low to mid-levels. This shear environment should be enough to continue an isolated wind-damage and hail threat. The severe threat may increase locally over the next hour or two, as the cells to the south merge with the line to the north. ..Broyles/Gleason.. 04/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT... LAT...LON 31449841 31309802 31359717 31729662 32439624 33209623 33909662 34159727 33959789 33739824 33409878 32989907 32479894 32059874 31449841 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Sun - Great Plains... An upper trough over the southwestern U.S. early Sunday will develop east, becoming oriented from the central Rockies to the Lower CO Valley by Monday morning. As the trough develops east, a band of enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread NM northeast to the Dakotas. A lee surface cyclone will deepen over western SD/NE, eventually shifting east into eastern SD by early Monday. Southerly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northward across the Plains as a dryline sharpens over western portions of the Plains. An EML should limit diurnal thunderstorm activity, though an isolated supercell can not be ruled out somewhere along the dryline from western SD southward into west TX. As a 50-60 kt low-level jet develops overnight, elevated convection may develop near the surface low over parts of SD/ND. This activity could pose a risk for hail, but uncertainty precludes 15 percent probabilities at this time. ...Day 5/Mon - Southern Plains to Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough embedded within the larger-scale western U.S. upper trough will eject from the central Rockies to the Upper Midwest on Monday. The southern branch of the western upper trough will stall over the Four Corners vicinity, but a broad swath of 50-80 kt 500 mb southwesterly flow will extend from the southern Plains to the upper Great Lakes. A surface low will shift east across the Upper MS Valley, with a trailing cold front moving across the northern/central Plains into WI/IA during the afternoon and overnight hours. A dryline also will extend southwest from northeast/central KS into western OK/northwest TX. Rich Gulf moisture will be transported northward on increasing southerly low-level flow ahead of the aforementioned surface features. Moderate to strong destabilization is forecast from OK northeast into IA and adjacent parts of southern MN/southwest WI. Supercell wind profiles amid this very moist/unstable airmass will support an all-hazards severe risk. The greatest risk should be centered on IA and adjacent areas from extreme northeast KS into southeast MN/southwest WI, where an intense low-level jet is expected to develop by late afternoon/early evening. With southwest extent across eastern KS into OK, and northwest TX, convective coverage is less certain as capping my limit severe thunderstorm development. Current model trends hanging back the southern branch of the upper trough also suggests large-scale ascent will be weaker across the region, resulting in a more difficult time overcoming capping. Higher probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if trends suggest capping will be less of a hindrance. ...Day 6/Tue - North TX into southern Lower MI and OH... Severe potential will continue into Tuesday, especially from the Mid-MS Valley into Lower MI/OH where the surface cold front is expected to continue pushing east/southeast through the period. While the upper shortwave trough over the Great Lakes will deamplify through the day, enhanced southwesterly flow atop the frontal boundary and a moist/unstable airmass should continue to support severe thunderstorm organization in the form of clusters and line segments. With southwest extent into AR/eastern OK/north TX, large-scale ascent will become weaker. However, persistent warm advection in the vicinity of a stalled boundary, and potential secondary surface low development should foster strong/severe thunderstorm activity. ...Days 7-8/Wed-Thu... OK/TX into the Lower MS Valley... Forecast guidance shows the southwestern U.S. upper trough ejecting across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley by the end of the forecast period. This could bring severe thunderstorm potential to these regions (OK/TX on Wed, ArkLaTex/Lower MS Valley on Thu). However, several periods of thunderstorm activity leading into Wednesday and large surface pattern differences among medium range guidance precludes introduction of severe probabilities at this time. Read more

WW 0165 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 165 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW ABI TO 25 SE LTS TO 35 WNW CHK. ..BROYLES..04/24/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 165 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC141-240940- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE TILLMAN TXC009-023-207-275-447-485-487-240940- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR HASKELL KNOX THROCKMORTON WICHITA WILBARGER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more