WW 0173 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 173 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..HALBERT..04/26/25 ATTN...WFO...MAF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 173 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC015-260140- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE EDDY TXC003-103-109-135-243-301-371-389-475-495-260140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREWS CRANE CULBERSON ECTOR JEFF DAVIS LOVING PECOS REEVES WARD WINKLER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 173 SEVERE TSTM NM TX 251940Z - 260300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 173 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 240 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast New Mexico West Texas * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 240 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms are forecast to develop and intensify this afternoon into the evening. Initially storms will likely focus near the higher terrain but will eventually move east into lower elevations. The stronger storms will likely become supercells with both left and right splitting supercells possible. Large to very large hail will be the primary risk with these storms. A tornado is possible during the early evening as low-level winds strengthen. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles east northeast of Carlsbad NM to 45 miles southwest of Fort Stockton TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 172... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27010. ...Smith Read more

MD 0561 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 173... FOR THE TRANS-PECOS AND PERMIAN BASIN
Mesoscale Discussion 0561 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Areas affected...the Trans-Pecos and Permian Basin Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 173... Valid 252044Z - 252215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 173 continues. SUMMARY...A localized very large hail threat should be confined to the Trans-Pecos and adjacent Pecos Valley into early evening. DISCUSSION...A slow-moving supercell has been drifting east, west of Fort Stockton. Additional storm-development appears likely to be delayed until early evening or later based on recent visible satellite and HRRR trends. 19Z observed sounding at Midland sampled weak 0-3 km shear/SRH, limiting low-level hodograph curvature. Still, adequate speed shear through the buoyancy layer will support large to very large hail potential with the supercell or two that anchor near the higher terrain. As low-level southeasterlies increase in the next few hours, additional storms may develop north into far southeast NM. ..Grams.. 04/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MAF... LAT...LON 31580316 30880275 30640291 30650345 30720392 31170423 31980430 31860343 31580316 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 031200Z A potent upper-level trough and associated mid-level jet will shift into the Southwest U.S. for Days 3-4/Sunday-Monday. This will bring a broad fire weather threat to eastern Arizona and much of New Mexico, potentially into southeastern Colorado as well depending on rainfall distribution and fuels by Day 3/Sunday. Another upper-level trough and subsequent post frontal offshore flow could bring a fire weather threat to the Mid-Atlantic on Day 3/Sunday, but fuels should be tamed by expected preceding rainfall. Dry and isolated breezy conditions will persist across the Southwest through Day 8/Friday, but growing ensemble member spread and increasing uncertainty precludes Critical probabilities at this time. ...Days 3-4/Sunday-Monday - New Mexico and adjacent High Plains... The primary fire weather concern remains over eastern Arizona into New Mexico for early next week. Mostly cloud free skies coincident with the arrival of a mid-level jet max should contribute to efficient boundary-layer turbulent mixing, with surface winds from the southwest approaching 30 mph in parts of southern and central New Mexico. The gusty surface winds combined with relative humidity below 10 percent in many locations should contribute to critical fire weather conditions favorable for wildfire spread. Critical probabilities of 70 percent were maintained as certainty remains high for this event. The upper-level trough and stronger mid-level flow shift eastward for Day 4/Monday. The subsequent fire weather threat should be more confined to southeastern New Mexico and far West Texas where 40 percent Critical probabilities were introduced. ...Florida... Very dry fuels persist across the Florida Peninsula. East-southeast winds will remain light enough to preclude Critical probabilities. A cold front is expected to bring some, at least temporary, relief to dry fuels from rainfall on Days 4-5/Monday-Tuesday. However, the spotty convective rainfall could leave a few dry areas across the state, particularly the southern Florida Peninsula. ..Williams/Weinman.. 04/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 031200Z A potent upper-level trough and associated mid-level jet will shift into the Southwest U.S. for Days 3-4/Sunday-Monday. This will bring a broad fire weather threat to eastern Arizona and much of New Mexico, potentially into southeastern Colorado as well depending on rainfall distribution and fuels by Day 3/Sunday. Another upper-level trough and subsequent post frontal offshore flow could bring a fire weather threat to the Mid-Atlantic on Day 3/Sunday, but fuels should be tamed by expected preceding rainfall. Dry and isolated breezy conditions will persist across the Southwest through Day 8/Friday, but growing ensemble member spread and increasing uncertainty precludes Critical probabilities at this time. ...Days 3-4/Sunday-Monday - New Mexico and adjacent High Plains... The primary fire weather concern remains over eastern Arizona into New Mexico for early next week. Mostly cloud free skies coincident with the arrival of a mid-level jet max should contribute to efficient boundary-layer turbulent mixing, with surface winds from the southwest approaching 30 mph in parts of southern and central New Mexico. The gusty surface winds combined with relative humidity below 10 percent in many locations should contribute to critical fire weather conditions favorable for wildfire spread. Critical probabilities of 70 percent were maintained as certainty remains high for this event. The upper-level trough and stronger mid-level flow shift eastward for Day 4/Monday. The subsequent fire weather threat should be more confined to southeastern New Mexico and far West Texas where 40 percent Critical probabilities were introduced. ...Florida... Very dry fuels persist across the Florida Peninsula. East-southeast winds will remain light enough to preclude Critical probabilities. A cold front is expected to bring some, at least temporary, relief to dry fuels from rainfall on Days 4-5/Monday-Tuesday. However, the spotty convective rainfall could leave a few dry areas across the state, particularly the southern Florida Peninsula. ..Williams/Weinman.. 04/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0173 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 173 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..HALBERT..04/25/25 ATTN...WFO...MAF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 173 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC015-252240- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE EDDY TXC003-103-109-135-243-301-371-389-475-495-252240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREWS CRANE CULBERSON ECTOR JEFF DAVIS LOVING PECOS REEVES WARD WINKLER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 173 SEVERE TSTM NM TX 251940Z - 260300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 173 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 240 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast New Mexico West Texas * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 240 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms are forecast to develop and intensify this afternoon into the evening. Initially storms will likely focus near the higher terrain but will eventually move east into lower elevations. The stronger storms will likely become supercells with both left and right splitting supercells possible. Large to very large hail will be the primary risk with these storms. A tornado is possible during the early evening as low-level winds strengthen. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles east northeast of Carlsbad NM to 45 miles southwest of Fort Stockton TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 172... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27010. ...Smith Read more

WW 0172 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 172 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..HALBERT..04/25/25 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF...AMA...LUB...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 172 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC009-025-041-252240- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CURRY LEA ROOSEVELT TXC011-017-045-065-069-075-079-101-107-117-125-129-153-155-165- 169-189-191-219-269-275-279-303-305-345-359-369-375-381-437-445- 501-252240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARMSTRONG BAILEY BRISCOE CARSON CASTRO CHILDRESS COCHRAN COTTLE CROSBY DEAF SMITH DICKENS DONLEY FLOYD FOARD GAINES GARZA HALE HALL HOCKLEY KING KNOX LAMB LUBBOCK LYNN MOTLEY OLDHAM PARMER POTTER RANDALL SWISHER TERRY YOAKUM Read more

WW 172 TORNADO NM TX 251855Z - 260300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 172 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 155 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern New Mexico Texas Panhandle and South Plains * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 155 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 4 inches in diameter likely Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon and evening. Once storms develop, the stronger storms will likely evolve into intense supercells capable of large to giant hail. The risk for tornadoes will probably maximize late this afternoon into the evening as low-level winds strengthen. A strong tornado is possible. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles south southwest of Cannon Afb NM to 25 miles northeast of Childress TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 4 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 27010. ...Smith Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR EASTERN ARIZONA INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...Day 2 Update... Latest model guidance consensus suggests slightly higher southwest surface winds on Saturday in advance of a robust upper-level trough. Higher ensemble probabilities of overlapping southwest winds of 20 mph or greater and relative humidity of 15 percent or lower exist in the higher terrain of far eastern Arizona into central New Mexico, where Critical highlights have been added. ..Williams/Weinman.. 04/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... By early Saturday evening, a mid-level trough is forecast to arrive over central California, with southwest flow overspreading much of the intermountain West. An intensifying surface cyclone in the Great Basin associated with this trough will be responsible for gusty southerly winds across the southern Rockies into the southern High Plains, resulting in Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of Arizona and New Mexico. ...Central New Mexico into Eastern Arizona... 20 MPH winds and 10-15% relative humidity (perhaps even dipping into the single-digits across New Mexico) will be responsible for at least Elevated fire-weather concerns, especially given fuels guidance with ERCs already at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. Some locally Critical conditions may occur where local terrain enhancement of the winds are favored, but lack of confidence in widespread 25+ MPH winds based on forecast guidance precludes specific highlights at this time. However, if guidance comes into better agreement, a Critical highlight may be needed for portions of central New Mexico. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FAR EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND CAPROCK... ...SUMMARY... A concentrated area of severe thunderstorms is forecast centered on the Texas South Plains during the late afternoon and evening. A few tornadoes will be possible, as well as large to giant hail being probable with the more intense supercells. ...20z Update... Tornado risk probabilities have been increased to 10% (with significant hatching) within a focused corridor across parts of the TX South Plains/Caprock. Latest radar imagery shows convective initiation well underway along a residual outflow boundary to the northwest of the Lubbock, TX area. Additional convective towers are noted in visible imagery to the east of the developing storm, lending high confidence in supercell development within the coming hours. These cells will likely propagate to the east/southeast along residual boundaries into a region with mid 60s dewpoints (moisture that is above the 90th percentile for west TX in late April) and east/southeasterly low-level flow. Weak 1-3 km winds have been recently noted in regional VWPs that will favor a very large hail threat through late afternoon; however, increasing flow within the 925-850 mb layer after 00z will result in low-level hodograph enlargement and promote an increasing tornado threat (including the potential for a strong tornado) heading into the evening hours prior to upscale growth later tonight. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025/ ...Far Eastern NM...TX Panhandle...West TX... Upper ridging over the High Plains will be downstream of a western U.S. upper trough. In the low levels, a frontal zone has pushed south into the TX Panhandle with a diffuse outflow boundary extending from east TX west-northwestward into the Low Rolling Plains/Caprock vicinity. Farther west, a dryline extends south over eastern NM with a seasonably moisture-rich airmass (60s surface dewpoints) located south and east of the aforementioned boundaries. Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies with strong heating expected through the late afternoon. Model guidance shows 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE developing by mid-late afternoon as convective inhibition gradually erodes near the boundaries. Forecast soundings show southeasterly to southerly flow veering to 20-30 kt southwesterly mid-level flow, and further increasing to 70-kt in the upper levels. The magnitude of buoyancy and shear will strongly favor intense supercells initially. Large to giant hail (up to 2.5 to 4.0 inches in diameter) will likely accompany the stronger supercells. A tornado risk will probably focus in the vicinity of mesoscale boundaries and peak during the early evening, when a strengthening of low-level flow is expected. Upscale growth into a cluster is possible this evening with the hail/tornado risk gradually transitioning to mostly a wind risk late. Farther south into the Permian Basin, a couple of intense supercells are possible later this afternoon into the evening. Large to giant hail appears to be the primary severe hazard, although a tornado is possible during the early evening. ...Lower MS Valley/Southeast into TN and OH Valley... Scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms are forecast to develop from the OH Valley south into the lower MS Valley within a moist/weakly unstable airmass. Some modest enhancement to low-level flow and hodographs over parts of the OH Valley may result in a few transient organized cells. Despite moist profiles and limited lapse rates, localized wind damage (45-55 mph gusts) may accompany the stronger storms for a few hours this afternoon. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across the southern High Plains and central Plains Sunday afternoon/evening. Scattered severe storms are possible across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest Sunday evening/night. ...Synopsis... Continued eastward progression of the western U.S. upper low/trough will occur Sunday. Eventually, this trough will begin to displace persistent central U.S. upper ridging, with the first effects -- in the form height falls -- spreading gradually across the Plains Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. Ahead of the trough, a cold front crossing the western U.S. will begin to emerge into the Plains, trailing southwestward from a low shifting gradually into/across the Nebraska vicinity. By the end of the period, this front should extend from the Mid Missouri Valley south-southwestward to West Texas. ...The Plains... Low-level moistening spreading northward across the Plains in advance of the approaching front will combine with daytime heating to result in moderate pre-frontal destabilization. The effects of ridging-induced subsidence -- in the form of boundary-layer capping -- will persist through much of the day, hindering more widespread development of diurnal storms. By late afternoon/early evening however, isolated storm development is expected, likely most widespread across the Nebraska vicinity just ahead of the surface low shifting into the region. Here, increasing mid-level flow atop low-level southerlies will provide sufficient shear for a few severe/rotating storms, likely accompanied by an all-hazards severe risk. Farther south along the advancing front, storms should remain much more isolated, but would likely pose local severe risk given a thermodynamic and kinematic environment that would support organized/rotating storms. Overnight, an increasing southerly low-level jet -- and associated warm advection across the Dakotas atop the warm front -- should sustain late-period storms, and at least some severe risk. ..Goss.. 04/25/2025 Read more

MD 0557 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR TX SOUTH PLAINS AND THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE INTO FAR EASTERN NM
Mesoscale Discussion 0557 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Areas affected...TX South Plains and the southern Panhandle into far eastern NM Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 251721Z - 251915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Several supercells will likely develop by late afternoon. Very large hail from baseball to softball size will be the primary initial threat. Tornado potential may be brief/limited early, but will increase into early evening. A tornado watch will be needed by mid-afternoon. DISCUSSION...17Z surface analysis placed a cyclone just west of Amarillo, along a wavy quasi-stationary front across the southern High Plains. A convective outflow boundary, reinforced by earlier convection over OK, extends in a west/east-orientation centered on the Plainview vicinity. Despite nebulous large-scale ascent, low-level convergence along these boundaries coupled with continued boundary-layer heating should yield sustained thunderstorm development by 19-20Z. Ample low-level moisture, characterized by low to mid 60s surface dew points are well-established to the south of the outflow boundary. Despite some weak mid-level warming, peak MLCAPE should reach 2500-3000 J/kg in a couple hours. Low-level winds will initially be weak, but sufficient elongation of the hodograph will support at least a few intense supercells by late afternoon. Large to very large hail will be the primary threat. A more focused corridor of tornado potential should become evident, with any discrete supercells along the mesoscale outflow boundary, as the west TX low-level jet strengthens into early evening. ..Grams/Smith.. 04/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... LAT...LON 35620252 35030269 34440326 33910344 32950358 32750295 32740235 33110144 33150059 33350033 34040041 34580117 35280148 35660162 35620252 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN Read more

MD 0558 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR THE PERMIAN BASIN AND TRANS-PECOS
Mesoscale Discussion 0558 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Areas affected...the Permian Basin and Trans-Pecos Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 251744Z - 251945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A few splitting supercells should develop by late afternoon. Large hail to around baseball size will be the primary threat. A tornado or two is also possible in the early evening. DISCUSSION...Incipient Cbs are forming over the Davis Mountains within the gradient of rich low-level moisture across much of west TX. These cells should become sustained in the next hour but may initially remain anchored to the terrain with still moderate MLCIN over the Pecos Valley. But by late afternoon, storms should propagate off the terrain as MLCIN is minimized. Weak low-level flow initially is yielding a nearly straight-line hodograph with increasing speed shear within the buoyancy layer. Most CAM guidance has signaled a predominant splitting supercell scenario with left-movers accelerating north-northeastward. Given this along with a more mixed environment relative to farther north, very large hail and localized severe gusts may be the primary hazards. Overall storm coverage should be isolated but may develop off the Sacramento Mountains as well, especially as a west TX low-level jet strengthens in the early evening. This could also support potential for a tornado or two. ..Grams/Smith.. 04/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MAF... LAT...LON 30180384 30230317 30570269 31300228 31940213 32380223 32660242 32650294 32940363 32850422 32240436 30440453 30180384 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

WW 0172 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0172 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday across portions of eastern New Mexico into adjacent western Texas. ...Synopsis... Large-scale ridging aloft will persist across the central U.S. Saturday, as short-wave troughing over the Great Lakes region moves into/across the Lower Lakes/Northeast, and a western U.S. upper low makes slow eastward progress across California and into Nevada. At the surface, a cold front will shift eastward across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region, while trailing westward across the Gulf Coast states and into the southern Plains. ...Parts of eastern New Mexico and adjacent western Texas... Widespread convection is forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period within a zone from far eastern New Mexico eastward to Oklahoma/North Texas. Resulting cloud cover and likely southward progression of outflow across western Texas casts some uncertainty with respect to recovery of the afternoon airmass across the MRGL risk area. Presuming ample heating occurs, isolated, new-storm development -- likely near remnant outflow -- may pose additional potential for local, all-hazards severe potential. This area will likely require some adjustment in later outlooks, as the effects of early-day convection can be more accurately ascertained. ..Goss.. 04/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday across portions of eastern New Mexico into adjacent western Texas. ...Synopsis... Large-scale ridging aloft will persist across the central U.S. Saturday, as short-wave troughing over the Great Lakes region moves into/across the Lower Lakes/Northeast, and a western U.S. upper low makes slow eastward progress across California and into Nevada. At the surface, a cold front will shift eastward across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region, while trailing westward across the Gulf Coast states and into the southern Plains. ...Parts of eastern New Mexico and adjacent western Texas... Widespread convection is forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period within a zone from far eastern New Mexico eastward to Oklahoma/North Texas. Resulting cloud cover and likely southward progression of outflow across western Texas casts some uncertainty with respect to recovery of the afternoon airmass across the MRGL risk area. Presuming ample heating occurs, isolated, new-storm development -- likely near remnant outflow -- may pose additional potential for local, all-hazards severe potential. This area will likely require some adjustment in later outlooks, as the effects of early-day convection can be more accurately ascertained. ..Goss.. 04/25/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...Day 1 Update... Minor modifications were made to Elevated highlights across New Mexico. Southeast surface winds are expected to persist today across southeastern New Mexico, inhibiting drier downslope flow off the Sacramento Mountains from mixing out the shallow moist layer in place. A very dry boundary layer across the Southwest combined with increasing southwest winds is still expected to bring elevated fire weather conditions to far eastern Arizona and western New Mexico where dry fuels/drought remains. ..Williams/Weinman.. 04/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1244 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough approaches the U.S. west coast, and associated southwest flow overspreads the Four Corners into the Great Basin, dry and windy conditions are forecast across much of the southern Rockies into the southern High Plains. ...Central New Mexico into Far Eastern Arizona... Relative humidity of 10-20% and 15-20 MPH winds are expected across much of central and western New Mexico into eastern Arizona this afternoon into the early evening, where current fuels guidance has ERCs at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. Some locally Critical conditions may exist where local topography provides an enhancement of surface winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND CAPROCK... ...SUMMARY... A concentrated area of severe thunderstorms is forecast centered on the Texas South Plains during the late afternoon and evening. A couple of tornadoes will be possible, as well as large to giant hail being probable with the more intense supercells. ...Far Eastern NM...TX Panhandle...West TX... Upper ridging over the High Plains will be downstream of a western U.S. upper trough. In the low levels, a frontal zone has pushed south into the TX Panhandle with a diffuse outflow boundary extending from east TX west-northwestward into the Low Rolling Plains/Caprock vicinity. Farther west, a dryline extends south over eastern NM with a seasonably moisture-rich airmass (60s surface dewpoints) located south and east of the aforementioned boundaries. Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies with strong heating expected through the late afternoon. Model guidance shows 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE developing by mid-late afternoon as convective inhibition gradually erodes near the boundaries. Forecast soundings show southeasterly to southerly flow veering to 20-30 kt southwesterly mid-level flow, and further increasing to 70-kt in the upper levels. The magnitude of buoyancy and shear will strongly favor intense supercells initially. Large to giant hail (up to 2.5 to 4.0 inches in diameter) will likely accompany the stronger supercells. A tornado risk will probably focus in the vicinity of mesoscale boundaries and peak during the early evening, when a strengthening of low-level flow is expected. Upscale growth into a cluster is possible this evening with the hail/tornado risk gradually transitioning to mostly a wind risk late. Farther south into the Permian Basin, a couple of intense supercells are possible later this afternoon into the evening. Large to giant hail appears to be the primary severe hazard, although a tornado is possible during the early evening. ...Lower MS Valley/Southeast into TN and OH Valley... Scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms are forecast to develop from the OH Valley south into the lower MS Valley within a moist/weakly unstable airmass. Some modest enhancement to low-level flow and hodographs over parts of the OH Valley may result in a few transient organized cells. Despite moist profiles and limited lapse rates, localized wind damage (45-55 mph gusts) may accompany the stronger storms for a few hours this afternoon. ..Smith/Wendt.. 04/25/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Apr 25 15:31:01 UTC 2025.