Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Tuesday - West Texas to the Northeast... Moderate instability will be present along an elongated frontal zone from the southern Plains to the Northeast on Tuesday. Modest shear along the frontal zone will support some organization into multicell clusters and perhaps supercells. A greater severe weather threat will exist across the eastern Great Lakes where forcing and shear will be strongest as a 75 knot mid-level jet streak crosses southern Ontario. Another focused zone of greater coverage of severe storms will be across parts of West Texas where multiple rounds of storm are anticipated. The first chance of storms will be during the afternoon as the front continues to move south across Oklahoma and perhaps into North Texas. An additional round of storms will be possible across parts of West Texas as the low-level jet strengthens Tuesday night in the presence of strong instability and shear. ...Day 5/Wednesday - North Texas to the ArkLaTex... Ongoing Day 4 convection may have some impact on the exact location of the severe weather threat on Tuesday. However, regardless of Day 4 convective evolution, there will likely be a region with a more focused severe weather threat on Day 5/Wednesday where moderate to strong instability exists ahead of strengthening mid-level flow and a mid-level trough which will move across the southern Plains. 15% probabilities have been added for Day 5 from North Texas to the ArkLaTex where this location of greatest severe weather threat appears most likely at this time. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL IOWA INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe weather is likely across portions of the Midwest and Upper Midwest. Large hail, severe wind gusts, and strong to intense tornadoes are likely. ...A tornado outbreak with the potential for strong to intense tornadoes is possible on Monday... ...Midwest into the Upper Midwest... A strong mid-level jet streak will move rapidly northeastward from the Southwest to the Upper Midwest on Monday. As this occurs, a surface low will deepen and move from the northern Plains to the northern Great Lakes. Strong southwesterly lower tropospheric flow will advect high theta-e air northward across the Midwest and into parts of the Upper Midwest. Broken to scattered cloud cover will support surface heating and strong destabilization across the warm sector in Iowa and into southeast Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Severe storms may develop as early as mid-day across western Minnesota and western Iowa on the nose of a 70-80 knot mid-level jet streak. These storms may begin as supercells, but mode may become more linear as the cold front intersects the dryline across Minnesota during the afternoon. Even if mode is more linear, embedded tornadoes will be possible given the strengthening low-level shear. Farther south and east, a more discrete mode will be favored within a weakly capped warm sector. As lower tropospheric flow strengthens through the day, the warm sector will expand rapidly northeastward, creating a broad warm-sector featuring moderate to strong instability and very strong (60+ knots) shear. Increasing forcing during the afternoon should be sufficient to overcome weak capping across the warm sector. Therefore open warm sector supercells will be possible in addition to supercells along the eastward advancing dryline. Any supercells which can develop within this increasingly favorable environment Monday afternoon/evening will be capable of strong to intense tornadoes. By late evening, a squall line will likely overtake much of the discrete convection as the cold front advances rapidly southeast. Severe wind gusts and embedded tornadoes will remain possible through the late evening and perhaps into the overnight hours. ...Central/Southern Plains... A strongly unstable and strongly sheared warm sector will exist along and east of the dryline from eastern Kansas southward to West Texas. Forcing is much weaker than farther north with only weak height falls along the dryline. However, most guidance shows minimal inhibition along the dryline and at least isolated storm development, perhaps aided by some nocturnal low-level jet increase during the evening. Any supercells which develop will pose a threat for all severe hazards including the potential for strong tornadoes. ..Bentley.. 04/26/2025 Read more

MD 0564 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 174... FOR TEXAS PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0564 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Areas affected...Texas Panhandle Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 174... Valid 260604Z - 260800Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 174 continues. SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat will likely continue for a couple more hours from the the Texas Panhandle eastward into eastern New Mexico. Large hail and severe gusts will be the primary threats. DISCUSSION...Latest mosaic radar imagery shows a somewhat large convective cluster from eastern New Mexico extending eastward into the southwestern and central Texas Panhandle. These storms are located along the northern edge of an unstable airmass, where the RAP is analyzing MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. The storms are being supported by the instability, along with warm advection associated with a 30 to 40 knot low to mid-level jet over west Texas. RAP forecast soundings at 06Z in the southwestern Texas Panhandle have 0-6 km shear near 40 knots with directional shear in the lowest 2 kilometers. This shear environment will likely be favorable for isolated supercells with a large hail threat. The greatest potential for large hail is expected from the southwestern Texas Panhandle into eastern New Mexico where the where the combination of instability, shear and steep lapse rates appears to be maximized. In addition, supercells could produce isolated severe gusts. ..Broyles.. 04/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ... LAT...LON 34150365 34240426 34370438 34490443 34600442 34770425 35080372 35480248 35540227 35570145 35320123 34980118 34480171 34210242 34150365 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0174 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 174 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..04/26/25 ATTN...WFO...AMA...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 174 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC011-017-045-069-075-079-087-101-107-117-125-129-153-189-191- 219-269-279-303-345-369-381-437-260740- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARMSTRONG BAILEY BRISCOE CASTRO CHILDRESS COCHRAN COLLINGSWORTH COTTLE CROSBY DEAF SMITH DICKENS DONLEY FLOYD HALE HALL HOCKLEY KING LAMB LUBBOCK MOTLEY PARMER RANDALL SWISHER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 174 SEVERE TSTM TX 260300Z - 260900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 174 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Texas Panhandle and South Plains * Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 1000 PM until 400 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Clusters of storms will continue through late evening into the overnight, with some additional organization possible, potentially including Mesoscale Convective System development. Periodic large hail will remain possible along with locally damaging winds as the primary hazards into the overnight, as storms progress generally eastward. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 75 miles west of Plainview TX to 20 miles southeast of Childress TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 172...WW 173... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28025. ...Guyer Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough moves over the Great Basin during the day Sunday, an accompanying southwesterly mid-level jet maximum is forecast to overspread the southern and central Rocky Mountains. Strong lee cyclogenesis at the surface east of the central Rockies, as well as deep boundary layer mixing beneath the jet core across the Southwest, will result in strong southwesterly surface winds and dry conditions from the Four Corners region into the southern High Plains. These conditions will be responsible for a corridor of concern for Extremely Critical fire-weather across central and southern New Mexico into far West Texas. ...Central and Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... 00Z Ensemble guidance from the HREF suggests there is high confidence in widespread 30+ MPH winds along with the potential for single-digit relative humidity. Forecast sounding profiles suggest an ensemble mean mixing depth at or exceeding 3 km AGL / 600 mb, and ensemble minimum sustained winds exceed Extremely Critical criteria. With current ERC fuels guidance showing fuels exceeding the annual 90th percentile, conditions will be supportive of rapid wildfire ignition and spread. While low relative humidity and high winds will exist from northwest New Mexico into the Four Corners, as well as southeastern Colorado, fuels further north do not appear to be overly receptive to wildfire ignition and spread at this time. ..Halbert.. 04/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough moves over the Great Basin during the day Sunday, an accompanying southwesterly mid-level jet maximum is forecast to overspread the southern and central Rocky Mountains. Strong lee cyclogenesis at the surface east of the central Rockies, as well as deep boundary layer mixing beneath the jet core across the Southwest, will result in strong southwesterly surface winds and dry conditions from the Four Corners region into the southern High Plains. These conditions will be responsible for a corridor of concern for Extremely Critical fire-weather across central and southern New Mexico into far West Texas. ...Central and Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... 00Z Ensemble guidance from the HREF suggests there is high confidence in widespread 30+ MPH winds along with the potential for single-digit relative humidity. Forecast sounding profiles suggest an ensemble mean mixing depth at or exceeding 3 km AGL / 600 mb, and ensemble minimum sustained winds exceed Extremely Critical criteria. With current ERC fuels guidance showing fuels exceeding the annual 90th percentile, conditions will be supportive of rapid wildfire ignition and spread. While low relative humidity and high winds will exist from northwest New Mexico into the Four Corners, as well as southeastern Colorado, fuels further north do not appear to be overly receptive to wildfire ignition and spread at this time. ..Halbert.. 04/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WEST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO FAR EASTERN ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough (and associated southwesterly mid-level flow) is forecast to be over central California by the early evening, with a surface low centered over the Great Basin. Deep boundary layer mixing beneath the mid-level jet, in combination with a surface low to the north, will result in Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of New Mexico and Arizona. ...West-central New Mexico into Far Eastern Arizona... 20-25 MPH winds and 10-15% relative humidity values are forecast over much of western New Mexico into Eastern Arizona, but most of the receptive fuels (based on ERC percentiles) are confined to central and southern New Mexico. Therefore, only a relatively small area of Critical highlights are forecast where meteorological conditions and fuels exceeding the 80th annual percentile overlap. ..Halbert.. 04/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WEST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO FAR EASTERN ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough (and associated southwesterly mid-level flow) is forecast to be over central California by the early evening, with a surface low centered over the Great Basin. Deep boundary layer mixing beneath the mid-level jet, in combination with a surface low to the north, will result in Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of New Mexico and Arizona. ...West-central New Mexico into Far Eastern Arizona... 20-25 MPH winds and 10-15% relative humidity values are forecast over much of western New Mexico into Eastern Arizona, but most of the receptive fuels (based on ERC percentiles) are confined to central and southern New Mexico. Therefore, only a relatively small area of Critical highlights are forecast where meteorological conditions and fuels exceeding the 80th annual percentile overlap. ..Halbert.. 04/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND FAR NORTHERN KANSAS.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across the southern High Plains and central Plains Sunday afternoon/evening. Scattered severe storms are possible across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest Sunday evening/night. ...Discussion... A moderately strong mid-level jet streak will extend from the Southwest and into the Central Plains on Sunday as a mid-level trough advances eastward through the Intermountain West. As this occurs, a strong surface cyclone will develop in the central High Plains/northern Plains. This strengthening cyclone will draw richer low-level moisture into the northern Plains while a dryline sharpens across the High Plains. This dryline will extend from southwest Nebraska southward to the Texas Big Bend on Sunday afternoon. Mid to upper 60s dewpoints east of this dryline and strong heating will support moderate to strong instability by Sunday afternoon. Forecast soundings show significant inhibition along the dryline in the southern High Plains with lesser inhibition with increasing latitude. Weak height falls and a sharp dryline circulation could support isolated supercell development along the dryline from southwest Kansas southward. A favorable environment will support a conditional threat for all severe weather hazards wherever supercells can develop within this region, but coverage concerns preclude a greater categorical risk at this time. Farther north, near the surface low, storm coverage probabilities increase due to stronger forcing and weaker inhibition. At least a few supercells are likely from northern Kansas across Nebraska and perhaps into far southern South Dakota Sunday evening with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. Hodographs will be relatively small during the evening, but once the low-level jet intensifies after 00Z, hodographs will enlarge quite rapidly with increasing low-level shear in the 00Z to 02Z timeframe. However, storm longevity and intensity after sunset remains questionable as forecast soundings show strong inhibition across much of the open warm sector. Therefore, any supercells which develop, may mostly exist prior to the strengthening low-level shear. Therefore, only 2 percent tornado probabilities are warranted at this time despite a considerably higher conditional threat. Scattered thunderstorms capable of large hail are expected to develop late Sunday evening and into the overnight hours along and north of the warm front as isentropic ascent strengthens with the associated strengthening low-level jet. ..Bentley.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND FAR NORTHERN KANSAS.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across the southern High Plains and central Plains Sunday afternoon/evening. Scattered severe storms are possible across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest Sunday evening/night. ...Discussion... A moderately strong mid-level jet streak will extend from the Southwest and into the Central Plains on Sunday as a mid-level trough advances eastward through the Intermountain West. As this occurs, a strong surface cyclone will develop in the central High Plains/northern Plains. This strengthening cyclone will draw richer low-level moisture into the northern Plains while a dryline sharpens across the High Plains. This dryline will extend from southwest Nebraska southward to the Texas Big Bend on Sunday afternoon. Mid to upper 60s dewpoints east of this dryline and strong heating will support moderate to strong instability by Sunday afternoon. Forecast soundings show significant inhibition along the dryline in the southern High Plains with lesser inhibition with increasing latitude. Weak height falls and a sharp dryline circulation could support isolated supercell development along the dryline from southwest Kansas southward. A favorable environment will support a conditional threat for all severe weather hazards wherever supercells can develop within this region, but coverage concerns preclude a greater categorical risk at this time. Farther north, near the surface low, storm coverage probabilities increase due to stronger forcing and weaker inhibition. At least a few supercells are likely from northern Kansas across Nebraska and perhaps into far southern South Dakota Sunday evening with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. Hodographs will be relatively small during the evening, but once the low-level jet intensifies after 00Z, hodographs will enlarge quite rapidly with increasing low-level shear in the 00Z to 02Z timeframe. However, storm longevity and intensity after sunset remains questionable as forecast soundings show strong inhibition across much of the open warm sector. Therefore, any supercells which develop, may mostly exist prior to the strengthening low-level shear. Therefore, only 2 percent tornado probabilities are warranted at this time despite a considerably higher conditional threat. Scattered thunderstorms capable of large hail are expected to develop late Sunday evening and into the overnight hours along and north of the warm front as isentropic ascent strengthens with the associated strengthening low-level jet. ..Bentley.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX...AND ALSO FOR PART OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe storms are possible later today across parts of the southern High Plains into the ArkLaTex region, and also across parts of the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level trough and embedded midlevel cyclone will move eastward into the Southwest later today, while another midlevel cyclone and related shortwave trough move southeastward from the Great Lakes into the Northeast. A surface cyclone attendant to the Northeast system will move eastward across New England, as a trailing cold front moves through the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas. ...NM into the Southern Plains and ArkLaTex... Extensive convection is expected overnight into the early part of the forecast period this morning, from the TX Panhandle/South Plains vicinity into southwest OK. Evolution of this convection and related outflow remains uncertain, though the majority of guidance suggests that an MCV will develop from this preceding convection and move eastward across OK through the day. Meanwhile, a cold front will move southward across OK during the morning, before stalling and beginning to move northward as a warm front later in the period. Storm intensification and/or redevelopment will be possible in the vicinity of the front during the afternoon, potentially aided by the eastward-moving MCV. Near/south of the front, relatively rich low-level moisture may support moderate destabilization by afternoon. Generally veering wind profiles are expected from parts of OK/north TX into the ArkLaTex, though the strength of low/midlevel flow and size/length of hodographs will depend on the vigor of any MCV that moves across the region. An organized severe threat with some threat for all severe hazards could develop if a well-defined MCV favorably interacts with returning low-level moisture near the front. The Marginal Risk has been expanded eastward in response to this potential scenario. Farther southwest, isolated to widely scattered diurnal storm development will be possible near the remnant outflow boundary somewhere across west/southwest TX, and also within the post-frontal regime closer to the higher terrain of NM/CO. Coverage of storms across these areas remains uncertain in the absence of stronger large-scale ascent, but isolated supercell development will again be possible, with at least a localized threat of large hail, strong/severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. Greater probabilities may be needed if confidence increases in locally greater supercell coverage across part of this region. ...Northeast/Mid Atlantic/Carolinas... Weak to moderate destabilization will be possible this afternoon across the Northeast/Mid Atlantic/Carolinas, and at least widely scattered storm development will be possible along/ahead of the advancing cold front. Gradually strengthening midlevel flow and deep-layer shear in response to the approaching mid/upper-level shortwave trough could support a few stronger cells/clusters during the afternoon and evening. The magnitude of diurnal heating and destabilization remains somewhat uncertain, but locally damaging wind and small to near-severe hail could accompany the strongest storms. ..Dean/Halbert.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX...AND ALSO FOR PART OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe storms are possible later today across parts of the southern High Plains into the ArkLaTex region, and also across parts of the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level trough and embedded midlevel cyclone will move eastward into the Southwest later today, while another midlevel cyclone and related shortwave trough move southeastward from the Great Lakes into the Northeast. A surface cyclone attendant to the Northeast system will move eastward across New England, as a trailing cold front moves through the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas. ...NM into the Southern Plains and ArkLaTex... Extensive convection is expected overnight into the early part of the forecast period this morning, from the TX Panhandle/South Plains vicinity into southwest OK. Evolution of this convection and related outflow remains uncertain, though the majority of guidance suggests that an MCV will develop from this preceding convection and move eastward across OK through the day. Meanwhile, a cold front will move southward across OK during the morning, before stalling and beginning to move northward as a warm front later in the period. Storm intensification and/or redevelopment will be possible in the vicinity of the front during the afternoon, potentially aided by the eastward-moving MCV. Near/south of the front, relatively rich low-level moisture may support moderate destabilization by afternoon. Generally veering wind profiles are expected from parts of OK/north TX into the ArkLaTex, though the strength of low/midlevel flow and size/length of hodographs will depend on the vigor of any MCV that moves across the region. An organized severe threat with some threat for all severe hazards could develop if a well-defined MCV favorably interacts with returning low-level moisture near the front. The Marginal Risk has been expanded eastward in response to this potential scenario. Farther southwest, isolated to widely scattered diurnal storm development will be possible near the remnant outflow boundary somewhere across west/southwest TX, and also within the post-frontal regime closer to the higher terrain of NM/CO. Coverage of storms across these areas remains uncertain in the absence of stronger large-scale ascent, but isolated supercell development will again be possible, with at least a localized threat of large hail, strong/severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. Greater probabilities may be needed if confidence increases in locally greater supercell coverage across part of this region. ...Northeast/Mid Atlantic/Carolinas... Weak to moderate destabilization will be possible this afternoon across the Northeast/Mid Atlantic/Carolinas, and at least widely scattered storm development will be possible along/ahead of the advancing cold front. Gradually strengthening midlevel flow and deep-layer shear in response to the approaching mid/upper-level shortwave trough could support a few stronger cells/clusters during the afternoon and evening. The magnitude of diurnal heating and destabilization remains somewhat uncertain, but locally damaging wind and small to near-severe hail could accompany the strongest storms. ..Dean/Halbert.. 04/26/2025 Read more

WW 0174 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0174 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0173 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 173 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE FST TO 55 SSW GDP. ..HALBERT..04/26/25 ATTN...WFO...MAF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 173 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC015-260240- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE EDDY TXC003-103-109-135-301-389-475-495-260240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREWS CRANE CULBERSON ECTOR LOVING REEVES WARD WINKLER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 0562 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 172... FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 0562 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0614 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Areas affected...parts of the South Plains Concerning...Tornado Watch 172... Valid 252314Z - 260115Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 172 continues. SUMMARY...A cyclic supercell continues to pose a large hail and tornado risk northwest of the Lubbock area, and may persist for a couple more hours as it move south/southeast. DISCUSSION...A lone intense supercell continues to evolve along the instability gradient, very near the LBB area. Surface observations show cooler air spreading in from the east across the PVW observation, with much warmer air around LBB. In addition, a substantial boundary-layer CU field is evident on visible imagery, from the Abilene/Snyder area northwestward to the ongoing supercell. Given the orientation of the instability gradient and time of day, the cell may tend to turn right/south, favoring renewed development toward the theta-e axis. Although a due-southeast motion would bring the cell into Lubbock later this evening, it is entirely possible the cell remains to the west due to dropping temperatures nearby. ..Jewell.. 04/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB... LAT...LON 34010229 33950214 33830200 33550160 33350166 33240179 33130204 33190224 33840241 34010229 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

MD 0563 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 173... FOR WEST TEXAS INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
Mesoscale Discussion 0563 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0701 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Areas affected...West Texas into far southeastern New Mexico Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 173... Valid 260001Z - 260200Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 173 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for large hail and damaging winds will continue across WW 173 into the early evening hours. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms developing in an environment largely characterized by straight-line hodographs will continue to favor splitting supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds. The most robust of these supercells is a left split that has moved northward into WW 172, but additional storms continue to develop along the higher terrain of the Trans-Pecos mountains. Short term forecast guidance suggests that this activity should die down after sunset, though ample buoyancy and shear along with a westward retreating dryline could result in some lingering after-dark threat. ..Halbert.. 04/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MAF... LAT...LON 30690456 31170481 32250478 32600459 32800416 32830353 32730292 32420256 31900241 31290252 30790270 30510292 30510378 30490421 30690456 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EAST-CENTRAL NM INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with potential for large to very large hail, isolated severe gusts, and a few tornadoes remain possible this evening from eastern New Mexico into the Texas South Plains and Permian Basin. ...Southern High Plains vicinity... Several supercells are ongoing this evening from eastern NM into the TX Panhandle, South Plains, and Permian Basin. Moderate to strong buoyancy and favorably veering wind profiles will maintain supercell potential through much of the evening, with eventual storm clustering and upscale growth possible later tonight, due to continued storm interactions and a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. Tornado potential will persist and may locally increase through the evening, as 0-1 km SRH increases above 200 m2/s2 in conjunction with the strengthening low-level jet. A conditional threat for a strong tornado remains evident with any supercell that can persist near a surface boundary extending from east-central NM into the TX South Plains. Otherwise, supercells will continue pose a threat of very large hail and isolated severe gusts through the evening. Late tonight, one or more storm clusters may spread east-southeastward toward southwest OK and western north TX, with a threat of strong to severe gusts, hail, and possibly a tornado. ...Southern OH into western WV... A small portion of the Marginal Risk has been maintained from extreme southern OH into western WV, where a couple of small rotating cells may persist for another hour or two before weakening later this evening. ..Dean.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EAST-CENTRAL NM INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with potential for large to very large hail, isolated severe gusts, and a few tornadoes remain possible this evening from eastern New Mexico into the Texas South Plains and Permian Basin. ...Southern High Plains vicinity... Several supercells are ongoing this evening from eastern NM into the TX Panhandle, South Plains, and Permian Basin. Moderate to strong buoyancy and favorably veering wind profiles will maintain supercell potential through much of the evening, with eventual storm clustering and upscale growth possible later tonight, due to continued storm interactions and a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. Tornado potential will persist and may locally increase through the evening, as 0-1 km SRH increases above 200 m2/s2 in conjunction with the strengthening low-level jet. A conditional threat for a strong tornado remains evident with any supercell that can persist near a surface boundary extending from east-central NM into the TX South Plains. Otherwise, supercells will continue pose a threat of very large hail and isolated severe gusts through the evening. Late tonight, one or more storm clusters may spread east-southeastward toward southwest OK and western north TX, with a threat of strong to severe gusts, hail, and possibly a tornado. ...Southern OH into western WV... A small portion of the Marginal Risk has been maintained from extreme southern OH into western WV, where a couple of small rotating cells may persist for another hour or two before weakening later this evening. ..Dean.. 04/26/2025 Read more

WW 0172 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 172 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 E TCC TO 35 E AMA TO 55 NNE BGS. ..JEWELL..04/26/25 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF...AMA...LUB...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 172 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC009-025-041-260140- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CURRY LEA ROOSEVELT TXC011-017-045-069-079-107-117-153-165-169-189-219-279-303-305- 369-381-437-445-501-260140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARMSTRONG BAILEY BRISCOE CASTRO COCHRAN CROSBY DEAF SMITH FLOYD GAINES GARZA HALE HOCKLEY LAMB LUBBOCK LYNN PARMER RANDALL SWISHER TERRY YOAKUM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more