WW 175 TORNADO NM TX 262050Z - 270300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 175 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 250 PM MDT Sat Apr 26 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern New Mexico West Texas * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 250 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon into the evening. Supercells capable of large to very large hail and possibly a couple of tornadoes will be the primary hazards. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles northwest of Tucumcari NM to 45 miles south southwest of Hobbs NM. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 27020. ...Smith Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0452 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z An upper-level trough will slowly translate eastward from the Southwest U.S. on Day 3/Monday into the Southern Plains Day 5/Wednesday. Stronger mid-level winds ahead of the trough along with downslope enhancement/drying off the higher terrain of the Northern Mexican Plateau is expected to linger over portions of Western Texas and southeastern New Mexico from Day 3/Monday, potentially into Day 5/Wednesday. 40 percent Critical probabilities were maintained for Day 3/Monday and added for Day 4/Tuesday for this area. Critical probabilities were not introduced for Day 5/Wednesday as timing and southern extent of cold front intrusion into eastern New Mexico and far Western Texas remains uncertain. Ensemble model guidance shows fairly good member agreement in bringing another long-wave trough into the Western U.S. by Days 6-8, which could bring some needed precipitation to portions of the Desert Southwest. ...Far Northern Plains... Fire weather threat could emerge across portions of eastern Montana and western North Dakota by Days 5-8/Wednesday-Saturday. An upper-level ridge building over the western U.S. interior late next week should bring well above normal temperatures to much of the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains, aiding in curing/drying fuels. However, upper and mid-level pattern does not appear conducive for strong downsloping events at this time and contingent on areas escaping appreciable rainfall in the short term. ...Florida Peninsula... A very dry fuelscape across the Florida Peninsula is expected to receive some relief by Day 3/Monday as a cold front and accompanying rainfall impact the state. Some areas could remain dry but winds and relative humidity are not expected to align for critical fire weather conditions by midweek (Days 4-6/Tuesday-Thursday) with more opportunities for precipitation late week. ..Williams.. 04/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0452 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z An upper-level trough will slowly translate eastward from the Southwest U.S. on Day 3/Monday into the Southern Plains Day 5/Wednesday. Stronger mid-level winds ahead of the trough along with downslope enhancement/drying off the higher terrain of the Northern Mexican Plateau is expected to linger over portions of Western Texas and southeastern New Mexico from Day 3/Monday, potentially into Day 5/Wednesday. 40 percent Critical probabilities were maintained for Day 3/Monday and added for Day 4/Tuesday for this area. Critical probabilities were not introduced for Day 5/Wednesday as timing and southern extent of cold front intrusion into eastern New Mexico and far Western Texas remains uncertain. Ensemble model guidance shows fairly good member agreement in bringing another long-wave trough into the Western U.S. by Days 6-8, which could bring some needed precipitation to portions of the Desert Southwest. ...Far Northern Plains... Fire weather threat could emerge across portions of eastern Montana and western North Dakota by Days 5-8/Wednesday-Saturday. An upper-level ridge building over the western U.S. interior late next week should bring well above normal temperatures to much of the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains, aiding in curing/drying fuels. However, upper and mid-level pattern does not appear conducive for strong downsloping events at this time and contingent on areas escaping appreciable rainfall in the short term. ...Florida Peninsula... A very dry fuelscape across the Florida Peninsula is expected to receive some relief by Day 3/Monday as a cold front and accompanying rainfall impact the state. Some areas could remain dry but winds and relative humidity are not expected to align for critical fire weather conditions by midweek (Days 4-6/Tuesday-Thursday) with more opportunities for precipitation late week. ..Williams.. 04/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE PERMIAN BASIN AND PARTS OF THE TEXARKANA REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over eastern New Mexico into parts of west Texas this afternoon through the evening. A threat for very large hail and possibly a couple of tornadoes are the primary risks. Scattered damaging gusts are possible this afternoon for parts of the Red River Valley. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track with the only notable change being an eastward shift/expansion of 15% wind probabilities (Slight risk) across portions of southeast OK, northeast TX, and into far southwest AR. As of 19 UTC, regional radar mosaics show deepening thunderstorms along a residual outflow boundary/effective warm front ahead of a decaying MCS. Along this boundary, temperatures have warmed into the low 80s with upper 60s/low 70s dewpoints, resulting in MLCAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg. A recent ACARS sounding from DFW sampled 30-35 knot mid-level flow over the region, which should be sufficient for some storm organization/longevity with an attendant threat for all hazards. Storm interactions should favor clustering through late afternoon and may support a focused corridor of wind damage/gust potential downstream of the developing storms. See the previous discussion below and MCDs #568 and #569 for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025/ ...NM into the Southern Plains and ArkLaTex... Visible satellite-radar composite shows a front/outflow pushing south across South Plains and Caprock over portions of west TX and westward into parts of eastern NM. This boundary will likely stall later this afternoon while moist upslope flow is maintained from the Permian Basin northwestward into southeast/eastern NM. Surface observations show a reservoir of lower to mid 60s dewpoints over southeast NM and west TX south of the boundary. Moderately strong west-southwesterly mid to high-level flow will extend east from the base of a West Coast trough into the southern Great Plains today. Strong heating over eastern NM will aid in moderate destabilization (1000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) from parts of northeast NM southward into the Eastern Plains/Permian Basin where buoyancy will be greatest. Models shows gradual erosion of convective inhibition later this afternoon with isolated to scattered storms developing in the vicinity of the dryline/composite front. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates sampled on the 12z Midland, TX raob atop a deep/moist boundary layer will support supercell development in conjunction with a veering and gradually strengthening wind profile. Large to very large hail will be possible with a few of these stronger storms. A tornado risk may develop during the late afternoon/early evening. Some of this activity may grow upscale into a small cluster this evening posing a hail/wind threat is moves east-southeast into parts of west TX. Farther east, an MCS will continue east across OK this afternoon. Moist low levels in the vicinity of the Red River may enable a re-invigoration of storms this afternoon. Damaging gusts appear to be the primary risk with these storms. ...Northeast/Mid Atlantic/Carolinas... A shortwave trough will continue moving through southern Ontario and the adjacent Lower Great Lakes. A cold front will progress eastward, moving through the northern Mid-Atlantic by this evening and the remainder of the Mid-Atlantic States by tonight. A relatively moist airmass is already in place ahead of this front, and thunderstorm development appears likely along the front as it moves eastward throughout the period. Highest coverage is anticipated from the Hudson Valley/NYC vicinity southward across the Delmarva to the Chesapeake Bay. Gradually strengthening midlevel flow and deep-layer shear could support a few stronger cells/clusters during the afternoon and evening. Diurnal heating will be tempered by cloud cover, limiting the overall buoyancy and updraft magnitude. Even so, some locally damaging wind and small to near-severe hail could accompany the strongest storms. Best overlap between the buoyancy and shear is expected from NJ into the Delmarva vicinity from 18Z to 21Z. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Day 2 Update... A dynamic mid-level trough will translate eastward into the Intermountain West as a lee cyclone strengthens across the Central High Plains on Sunday. A dry, well-mixed boundary layer will be in place beneath a strong mid-level jet supporting an increasing surface wind response over much of far eastern Arizona, New Mexico into eastern Colorado Sunday afternoon. This is still expected to result in a belt of Critical to Extremely Critical fire weather conditions across much of New Mexico. ...Eastern Colorado... Green-up continues across the Central/Southern High Plains but some dormant and receptive fuels remain across the area. Accelerating south-southwest winds coupled with relative humidity falling to around 10 percent, will combine with remaining receptive fuels to allow for an increased fire spread potential across the High Plains of eastern Colorado Sunday. Elevated highlights were extended into this area. ..Williams.. 04/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough moves over the Great Basin during the day Sunday, an accompanying southwesterly mid-level jet maximum is forecast to overspread the southern and central Rocky Mountains. Strong lee cyclogenesis at the surface east of the central Rockies, as well as deep boundary layer mixing beneath the jet core across the Southwest, will result in strong southwesterly surface winds and dry conditions from the Four Corners region into the southern High Plains. These conditions will be responsible for a corridor of concern for Extremely Critical fire-weather across central and southern New Mexico into far West Texas. ...Central and Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... 00Z Ensemble guidance from the HREF suggests there is high confidence in widespread 30+ MPH winds along with the potential for single-digit relative humidity. Forecast sounding profiles suggest an ensemble mean mixing depth at or exceeding 3 km AGL / 600 mb, and ensemble minimum sustained winds exceed Extremely Critical criteria. With current ERC fuels guidance showing fuels exceeding the annual 90th percentile, conditions will be supportive of rapid wildfire ignition and spread. While low relative humidity and high winds will exist from northwest New Mexico into the Four Corners, as well as southeastern Colorado, fuels further north do not appear to be overly receptive to wildfire ignition and spread at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Day 2 Update... A dynamic mid-level trough will translate eastward into the Intermountain West as a lee cyclone strengthens across the Central High Plains on Sunday. A dry, well-mixed boundary layer will be in place beneath a strong mid-level jet supporting an increasing surface wind response over much of far eastern Arizona, New Mexico into eastern Colorado Sunday afternoon. This is still expected to result in a belt of Critical to Extremely Critical fire weather conditions across much of New Mexico. ...Eastern Colorado... Green-up continues across the Central/Southern High Plains but some dormant and receptive fuels remain across the area. Accelerating south-southwest winds coupled with relative humidity falling to around 10 percent, will combine with remaining receptive fuels to allow for an increased fire spread potential across the High Plains of eastern Colorado Sunday. Elevated highlights were extended into this area. ..Williams.. 04/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough moves over the Great Basin during the day Sunday, an accompanying southwesterly mid-level jet maximum is forecast to overspread the southern and central Rocky Mountains. Strong lee cyclogenesis at the surface east of the central Rockies, as well as deep boundary layer mixing beneath the jet core across the Southwest, will result in strong southwesterly surface winds and dry conditions from the Four Corners region into the southern High Plains. These conditions will be responsible for a corridor of concern for Extremely Critical fire-weather across central and southern New Mexico into far West Texas. ...Central and Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... 00Z Ensemble guidance from the HREF suggests there is high confidence in widespread 30+ MPH winds along with the potential for single-digit relative humidity. Forecast sounding profiles suggest an ensemble mean mixing depth at or exceeding 3 km AGL / 600 mb, and ensemble minimum sustained winds exceed Extremely Critical criteria. With current ERC fuels guidance showing fuels exceeding the annual 90th percentile, conditions will be supportive of rapid wildfire ignition and spread. While low relative humidity and high winds will exist from northwest New Mexico into the Four Corners, as well as southeastern Colorado, fuels further north do not appear to be overly receptive to wildfire ignition and spread at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Apr 26 19:43:02 UTC 2025.

MD 0568 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN VA ...CNTRL AND SRN MD...DE
Mesoscale Discussion 0568 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0105 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Areas affected...parts of cntrl/ern VA ...cntrl and srn MD...DE Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 261805Z - 262000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms may continue to gradually develop through 3-5 PM EDT, with some accompanied by small hail and a few strong, potentially damaging, wind gusts. DISCUSSION...The initiation of widely scattered to scattered thunderstorm development appears underway to the east of the Blue Ridge, where low-level lapse rates are steepening most substantively in response to insolation and mixing, in the wake of mid/high cloudiness and light rain still overspreading northern Mid Atlantic coastal areas. Through 19-21Z, the Rapid Refresh suggests that continued boundary-layer warming may contribute to mixed-layer CAPE as high as 1000 J/kg, within pre-frontal surface troughing across central Virginia, northeastward toward the Delmarva. Mid/upper-level lapse rates are likely to remain weak, as stronger cooling aloft lags to the northwest of the region. But, with some strengthening of westerly mid-level wind fields (to 30-35 kt around 500 mb), the environment may become conducive to small multi-cell clusters, accompanied by a few potentially damaging surface gusts which could approach severe limits. ..Kerr/Smith.. 04/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK... LAT...LON 37597908 38277867 39457706 39687595 39527547 38907501 38237530 37787597 37497656 37077765 37047899 37597908 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

MD 0569 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE TRANS-PECOS
Mesoscale Discussion 0569 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Areas affected...Portions of eastern New Mexico into the Trans-Pecos Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 261928Z - 262130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Large to very-large hail and perhaps a tornado or two are possible with supercells near an outflow boundary this afternoon/evening. A watch may eventually be needed. Convective trends will be monitored. DISCUSSION...With continuing convection within Oklahoma and western North Texas, outflow has continued to push west/southwestward into eastern New Mexico and through the South Plains. While a few towering cumulus have been observed along this outflow boundary during the afternoon, residence time within the zone of ascent has been too short to promote deep convection. Farther to the west, southeasterly winds have pushed mid/upper 50s F dewpoints into the southern Rockies. Convection has been slowly deepening per day cloud phase imagery. The most likely scenario is for a few storms to develop within the next 2-3 hours and propagate east-southeastward as the outflow boundary pushes up against the terrain. With 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE near and just behind the outflow boundary (where it has remained cloud free) and 30-40 kts of effective shear across the boundary, supercells would likely be the dominant storm mode. Steep mid-level lapse rates sampled in this mornings observed soundings in the region suggest large to very-large hail would be possible along with isolated severe gusts. The tornado threat is somewhat less certain given what will at least initially be weak low-level winds. However, backed surface winds along/near the outflow boundary will provide greater SRH for storms that favorably interact with it. There will be a modest increase in the low-level jet this evening, but, given the more stable conditions with eastward extent, the spatial window for greater tornado potential appears limited/conditional. Convective trends will continue to be monitored. A watch may eventually be needed, but timing remains uncertain. ..Wendt/Smith.. 04/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... LAT...LON 34320539 34990547 35180540 35430514 35450483 35380461 34820408 34210380 33560359 32970322 32090328 31670392 31970455 33240527 33900547 34320539 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN IA/SOUTHEAST MN/WESTERN WI... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe weather remains likely across portions of the Upper Midwest, centered on Monday afternoon and evening. Very large hail, strong tornadoes, and damaging winds are expected. ...Synopsis... Multiple shortwave impulses embedded within a broader positive-tilt upper trough will eject into/across the North-Central States during the period. Primary surface cyclone, over central/eastern SD Monday morning, will remain nearly steady-state as it tracks east-northeast across the Upper Great Lakes. ...Upper Midwest... Elevated convection should be ongoing at 12Z Monday, centered on ND arcing southeast across the Upper MS Valley. Isolated severe hail may accompany this morning activity as it progresses eastward along the leading edge of a stout EML. Regenerative elevated storm development should persist northeast of the surface cyclone track across the Red River Valley through northern MN, likely limiting the northward advancement of the surface warm front during the day. Guidance differs markedly with the degree of northward destabilization into northern MN, lowering confidence in the degree of severe threat here. South of early-period storms/cloud coverage, pronounced destabilization will occur beneath the initially stout EML amid strong low-level moist advection. Cooling mid-level temperatures during the afternoon will be favorably timed with peak heating to support thunderstorms across southern MN into northern IA. Greater coverage is expected with northern extent which may yield more linear organization, compared to more discrete/isolated coverage trailing southward. A mix of all hazards is anticipated with an increasing severe threat into the early/mid evening as the low-level jet strengthens across the Upper MS Valley to Upper Great Lakes. The southern portion of this will be the more favored corridor for open warm sector discrete supercells capable of producing strong tornadoes. By late evening, linear clusters will likely overtake much of the discrete convection as the cold front advances rapidly east-southeast. Damaging wind gusts and embedded tornadoes will remain possible through the late evening and perhaps into the overnight hours. ...KS/MO to west TX... A strongly unstable/sheared warm sector will exist along/east of the dryline. Forcing for ascent should be much weaker than farther north with only weak mid-level height falls along the dryline. Most probable storm signals are after the nocturnal low-level jet increases during the evening in the southern Great Plains. This could support isolated supercells into Monday night. ..Grams.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN IA/SOUTHEAST MN/WESTERN WI... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe weather remains likely across portions of the Upper Midwest, centered on Monday afternoon and evening. Very large hail, strong tornadoes, and damaging winds are expected. ...Synopsis... Multiple shortwave impulses embedded within a broader positive-tilt upper trough will eject into/across the North-Central States during the period. Primary surface cyclone, over central/eastern SD Monday morning, will remain nearly steady-state as it tracks east-northeast across the Upper Great Lakes. ...Upper Midwest... Elevated convection should be ongoing at 12Z Monday, centered on ND arcing southeast across the Upper MS Valley. Isolated severe hail may accompany this morning activity as it progresses eastward along the leading edge of a stout EML. Regenerative elevated storm development should persist northeast of the surface cyclone track across the Red River Valley through northern MN, likely limiting the northward advancement of the surface warm front during the day. Guidance differs markedly with the degree of northward destabilization into northern MN, lowering confidence in the degree of severe threat here. South of early-period storms/cloud coverage, pronounced destabilization will occur beneath the initially stout EML amid strong low-level moist advection. Cooling mid-level temperatures during the afternoon will be favorably timed with peak heating to support thunderstorms across southern MN into northern IA. Greater coverage is expected with northern extent which may yield more linear organization, compared to more discrete/isolated coverage trailing southward. A mix of all hazards is anticipated with an increasing severe threat into the early/mid evening as the low-level jet strengthens across the Upper MS Valley to Upper Great Lakes. The southern portion of this will be the more favored corridor for open warm sector discrete supercells capable of producing strong tornadoes. By late evening, linear clusters will likely overtake much of the discrete convection as the cold front advances rapidly east-southeast. Damaging wind gusts and embedded tornadoes will remain possible through the late evening and perhaps into the overnight hours. ...KS/MO to west TX... A strongly unstable/sheared warm sector will exist along/east of the dryline. Forcing for ascent should be much weaker than farther north with only weak mid-level height falls along the dryline. Most probable storm signals are after the nocturnal low-level jet increases during the evening in the southern Great Plains. This could support isolated supercells into Monday night. ..Grams.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday evening into early morning Monday across parts of the northern and central Great Plains. Large hail should be the predominant hazard. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level jetlet will eject through the basal portion of a broad trough over the West. This should overspread the southern Rockies into the central High Plains by Sunday night. Primary surface cyclone will diurnally deepen over the central High Plains, with a secondary low downstream of the Bighorn Mountains. The primary low will advance northeast into the central SD vicinity by 12Z Monday. A north/south-oriented lee trough/dryline will extend through the southern High Plains. ...Northern Great Plains to NE... Large-scale ascent will be focused across this region, especially Sunday evening/night as mid-level height falls/upper-level diffluence increase ahead of the approaching trough/jet streak. Two corridors of initial storm development are apparent by early evening, centered on the NE Panhandle and southeast MT, just ahead of the aforementioned surface lows. Rich low-level moisture will likely remain displaced to the southeast of both regions, but adequate moisture should be present for a few supercells with low-level southeasterlies beneath strengthening southwesterly mid/upper winds. The breadth of the uncapped warm-moist sector will be confined though and convection will likely become predominately elevated Sunday night. However, increasing convective coverage is anticipated within the exit region of a strong low-level jet nosing into the Mid-MO Valley. Large hail should be the overarching threat, with a mixed wind/hail threat possibly evolving amid signals of a linear cluster into western/central SD. ...KS to west TX... A very conditional severe threat will extend along the dryline. A plume of large buoyancy coincident with a supercell wind profile will exist from northwest TX into western KS. Forcing for ascent, outside of a weakly retreating dryline circulation, is nebulous. Thunderstorm probabilities appear to be around 10 percent or less, outside of the TX Big Bend during the late afternoon and evening. ..Grams.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR EASTERN ARIZONA INTO WEST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...Day 1 Update... Latest model consensus continues to indicate a broad fire weather threat across portions of the Southwest today. Expected meteorological conditions supports expansion of Critical highlights well into portions of northeast Arizona. However, fuels are undergoing green-up transition across the Four Corners area which should act to mitigate significant wildfire spread, although Elevated highlights were expanded northward into southeastern Utah and southwestern Colorado to capture the overall fire environment concern. ..Williams.. 04/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough (and associated southwesterly mid-level flow) is forecast to be over central California by the early evening, with a surface low centered over the Great Basin. Deep boundary layer mixing beneath the mid-level jet, in combination with a surface low to the north, will result in Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of New Mexico and Arizona. ...West-central New Mexico into Far Eastern Arizona... 20-25 MPH winds and 10-15% relative humidity values are forecast over much of western New Mexico into Eastern Arizona, but most of the receptive fuels (based on ERC percentiles) are confined to central and southern New Mexico. Therefore, only a relatively small area of Critical highlights are forecast where meteorological conditions and fuels exceeding the 80th annual percentile overlap. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE PERMIAN BASIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over eastern New Mexico into parts of west Texas this afternoon through the evening. A threat for very large hail and possibly a couple of tornadoes are the primary risks. Scattered damaging gusts are possible this afternoon for parts of the Red River Valley. ...NM into the Southern Plains and ArkLaTex... Visible satellite-radar composite shows a front/outflow pushing south across South Plains and Caprock over portions of west TX and westward into parts of eastern NM. This boundary will likely stall later this afternoon while moist upslope flow is maintained from the Permian Basin northwestward into southeast/eastern NM. Surface observations show a reservoir of lower to mid 60s dewpoints over southeast NM and west TX south of the boundary. Moderately strong west-southwesterly mid to high-level flow will extend east from the base of a West Coast trough into the southern Great Plains today. Strong heating over eastern NM will aid in moderate destabilization (1000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) from parts of northeast NM southward into the Eastern Plains/Permian Basin where buoyancy will be greatest. Models shows gradual erosion of convective inhibition later this afternoon with isolated to scattered storms developing in the vicinity of the dryline/composite front. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates sampled on the 12z Midland, TX raob atop a deep/moist boundary layer will support supercell development in conjunction with a veering and gradually strengthening wind profile. Large to very large hail will be possible with a few of these stronger storms. A tornado risk may develop during the late afternoon/early evening. Some of this activity may grow upscale into a small cluster this evening posing a hail/wind threat is moves east-southeast into parts of west TX. Farther east, an MCS will continue east across OK this afternoon. Moist low levels in the vicinity of the Red River may enable a re-invigoration of storms this afternoon. Damaging gusts appear to be the primary risk with these storms. ...Northeast/Mid Atlantic/Carolinas... A shortwave trough will continue moving through southern Ontario and the adjacent Lower Great Lakes. A cold front will progress eastward, moving through the northern Mid-Atlantic by this evening and the remainder of the Mid-Atlantic States by tonight. A relatively moist airmass is already in place ahead of this front, and thunderstorm development appears likely along the front as it moves eastward throughout the period. Highest coverage is anticipated from the Hudson Valley/NYC vicinity southward across the Delmarva to the Chesapeake Bay. Gradually strengthening midlevel flow and deep-layer shear could support a few stronger cells/clusters during the afternoon and evening. Diurnal heating will be tempered by cloud cover, limiting the overall buoyancy and updraft magnitude. Even so, some locally damaging wind and small to near-severe hail could accompany the strongest storms. Best overlap between the buoyancy and shear is expected from NJ into the Delmarva vicinity from 18Z to 21Z. ..Smith/Wendt.. 04/26/2025 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Apr 26 16:16:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL OK AND FAR NORTH-CENTRAL TX INTO EASTERN OK... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe storms are possible later today across parts of the southern High Plains into the ArkLaTex region. Highest coverage is expected from south-central Oklahoma and far north-central Texas into eastern Oklahoma. Isolated severe storms are also across parts of the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas. ...NM into the Southern Plains and ArkLaTex... Early morning satellite and radar imagery shows a convectively enhanced vorticity maximum moving into western OK, with strong (to occasionally severe) thunderstorms ongoing along its eastern and southern periphery. The MCV is expected to continue east-southeastward, likely progressing along a stationary boundary that extends west to east along the Red River vicinity. Moderate downstream airmass destabilization is anticipated over the next several hours downstream of the MCV across eastern OK and far northeast TX. In general, bulk shear across the region will be modest. However, there could be some localized enhancement of the shear across the eastern periphery of the MCV where slightly stronger low-level southerly flow is anticipated. These environmental conditions will help support a continued risk for severe thunderstorms into eastern OK and adjacent northeast TX. Overall severe coverage is expected to be high enough to warrant increased wind probabilities from south-central OK/far north-central TX into eastern OK. The increased shear could also result in a greater tornado threat and tornado probabilities were increased across eastern OK. Farther west, thunderstorm development will likely continue along the outflow boundary moving southward across the Texas South Plains. Southward progression of this boundary will likely slow throughout the day as southerly low-level flow strengthens in response to a tightening lee trough and a nocturnal low-level jet that develops ahead of another shortwave trough. Isolated severe storms are possible along this outflow as well as the stalled front/lee trough expected to extend from eastern NM into southeast CO. Storm development across these areas is less certain, with limited coverage currently anticipated. A few widely spaced supercells are possible with at least a localized threat of large hail, strong/severe gusts, and possibly even a tornado. ...Northeast/Mid Atlantic/Carolinas... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving through southern Ontario and the adjacent Upper Great Lakes region. Surface analysis places the low associated with this shortwave over Lake Ontario, with a cold front extending from this low back southwestward through the central Appalachians, TN Valley, and Mid-South. Expectation is for the shortwave trough to continue eastward in the Northeast throughout the day, with the attendant surface low progressing more northeastward through New England. The associated cold front will also progress eastward, moving through the northern Mid-Atlantic by this evening and the remainder of the Mid-Atlantic States by tonight. A relatively moist airmass is already in place ahead of this front, and thunderstorm development appears likely along the front as it moves eastward throughout the period. Highest coverage is anticipated from the Hudson Valley/NYC vicinity southward across the Delmarva to the Chesapeake Bay. Gradually strengthening midlevel flow and deep-layer shear could support a few stronger cells/clusters during the afternoon and evening. Diurnal heating will be tempered by cloud cover, limiting the overall buoyancy and updraft magnitude. Even so, some locally damaging wind and small to near-severe hail could accompany the strongest storms. Best overlap between the buoyancy and shear is expected from NJ into the Delmarva vicinity from 18Z to 21Z. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL OK AND FAR NORTH-CENTRAL TX INTO EASTERN OK... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe storms are possible later today across parts of the southern High Plains into the ArkLaTex region. Highest coverage is expected from south-central Oklahoma and far north-central Texas into eastern Oklahoma. Isolated severe storms are also across parts of the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas. ...NM into the Southern Plains and ArkLaTex... Early morning satellite and radar imagery shows a convectively enhanced vorticity maximum moving into western OK, with strong (to occasionally severe) thunderstorms ongoing along its eastern and southern periphery. The MCV is expected to continue east-southeastward, likely progressing along a stationary boundary that extends west to east along the Red River vicinity. Moderate downstream airmass destabilization is anticipated over the next several hours downstream of the MCV across eastern OK and far northeast TX. In general, bulk shear across the region will be modest. However, there could be some localized enhancement of the shear across the eastern periphery of the MCV where slightly stronger low-level southerly flow is anticipated. These environmental conditions will help support a continued risk for severe thunderstorms into eastern OK and adjacent northeast TX. Overall severe coverage is expected to be high enough to warrant increased wind probabilities from south-central OK/far north-central TX into eastern OK. The increased shear could also result in a greater tornado threat and tornado probabilities were increased across eastern OK. Farther west, thunderstorm development will likely continue along the outflow boundary moving southward across the Texas South Plains. Southward progression of this boundary will likely slow throughout the day as southerly low-level flow strengthens in response to a tightening lee trough and a nocturnal low-level jet that develops ahead of another shortwave trough. Isolated severe storms are possible along this outflow as well as the stalled front/lee trough expected to extend from eastern NM into southeast CO. Storm development across these areas is less certain, with limited coverage currently anticipated. A few widely spaced supercells are possible with at least a localized threat of large hail, strong/severe gusts, and possibly even a tornado. ...Northeast/Mid Atlantic/Carolinas... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving through southern Ontario and the adjacent Upper Great Lakes region. Surface analysis places the low associated with this shortwave over Lake Ontario, with a cold front extending from this low back southwestward through the central Appalachians, TN Valley, and Mid-South. Expectation is for the shortwave trough to continue eastward in the Northeast throughout the day, with the attendant surface low progressing more northeastward through New England. The associated cold front will also progress eastward, moving through the northern Mid-Atlantic by this evening and the remainder of the Mid-Atlantic States by tonight. A relatively moist airmass is already in place ahead of this front, and thunderstorm development appears likely along the front as it moves eastward throughout the period. Highest coverage is anticipated from the Hudson Valley/NYC vicinity southward across the Delmarva to the Chesapeake Bay. Gradually strengthening midlevel flow and deep-layer shear could support a few stronger cells/clusters during the afternoon and evening. Diurnal heating will be tempered by cloud cover, limiting the overall buoyancy and updraft magnitude. Even so, some locally damaging wind and small to near-severe hail could accompany the strongest storms. Best overlap between the buoyancy and shear is expected from NJ into the Delmarva vicinity from 18Z to 21Z. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 04/26/2025 Read more

MD 0565 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 174... FOR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0565 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Areas affected...Southern Texas Panhandle Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 174... Valid 260843Z - 261045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 174 continues. SUMMARY...An isolated threat for large hail and severe gusts could continue for another hour or two. Weather watch extension may become necessary as the 09Z watch expiration approaches. DISCUSSION...Latest hi-res radar imagery from Amarillo shows an MCS over the southern Texas Panhandle extending westward into northeastern New Mexico. This relatively large cluster of storms is located along an east-to-west oriented instability gradient, with the RAP suggesting that MLCAPE is in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. These storms are being supported by large-scale associated with shortwave trough over west Texas, and by warm advection that is occurring over the southern Plains. The WSR-88D VWP from Amarillo has 0-6 km shear near 40 knots with an abrupt wind shift around 1 km above ground level. This amount of deep-layer shear will be sufficient for supercells, with large hail as the primary threat. Isolated severe gusts will also be possible. The severe threat my last for a couple more hours, and could necessitate a watch extension. ..Broyles.. 04/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 34459998 34270044 34230133 34260246 34470297 34760301 34960294 35130263 35140179 35100012 34459998 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 0566 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHWEST TEXAS...SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0566 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Areas affected...Northwest Texas...Southwest Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 260957Z - 261230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An isolated threat for large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible over the next couple of hours. A brief tornado may also occur. Although weather watch issuance appears unlikely, the situation will continue to be monitored. DISCUSSION...A small severe convective cluster is currently ongoing across the far southeastern Texas Panhandle and far southwest Oklahoma. This convection is expected to continue moving eastward along an east-to-west gradient of instability, where the RAP has MUCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Forecast soundings eastward along the projected path of the storms have effective shear near 35 knots with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7 C/km. This environment should be enough to support a continued severe threat over the next couple of hours. An isolated large hail threat and potential for severe gusts will be possible, mainly with supercells. In addition, forecast soundings suggest that enough low-level shear is present for an isolated tornado threat. The storms will continue to move eastward across southwest Oklahoma, and trends will be monitored for additional upscale growth and organization. ..Broyles/Mosier.. 04/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 34249977 34039802 34869768 35129801 35229878 35189985 35080032 34900054 34700057 34530052 34340026 34249977 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Tuesday - West Texas to the Northeast... Moderate instability will be present along an elongated frontal zone from the southern Plains to the Northeast on Tuesday. Modest shear along the frontal zone will support some organization into multicell clusters and perhaps supercells. A greater severe weather threat will exist across the eastern Great Lakes where forcing and shear will be strongest as a 75 knot mid-level jet streak crosses southern Ontario. Another focused zone of greater coverage of severe storms will be across parts of West Texas where multiple rounds of storm are anticipated. The first chance of storms will be during the afternoon as the front continues to move south across Oklahoma and perhaps into North Texas. An additional round of storms will be possible across parts of West Texas as the low-level jet strengthens Tuesday night in the presence of strong instability and shear. ...Day 5/Wednesday - North Texas to the ArkLaTex... Ongoing Day 4 convection may have some impact on the exact location of the severe weather threat on Tuesday. However, regardless of Day 4 convective evolution, there will likely be a region with a more focused severe weather threat on Day 5/Wednesday where moderate to strong instability exists ahead of strengthening mid-level flow and a mid-level trough which will move across the southern Plains. 15% probabilities have been added for Day 5 from North Texas to the ArkLaTex where this location of greatest severe weather threat appears most likely at this time. Read more