SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Southeast Pennsylvania and New Jersey... Elevated highlights were added across portions of southeastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey where strong offshore flow within a post-frontal regime is ongoing. Northwest winds of 15-25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph combined with relative humidity falling into the 25-35 percent range are expected through the early afternoon before winds subside late afternoon. Rainfall over the last 48 hours was spotty so pockets of receptive fuels remain, primarily in the New Jersey Pinelands. ...Southwest and adjacent High Plains... Significant fire weather threat remains across the Southwest with swath of Extremely Critical highlights in place across much of southern and central New Mexico. Elevated highlights were extended into far southeastern Utah and far western Colorado to account for some lower elevation receptive fuels. Otherwise, previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Williams.. 04/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0109 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... With a mid-level trough translating across the Intermountain West, and a lee cyclone deepening over the central High Plains, strong surface winds and deep boundary layer mixing are forecast across much of the Southwest into the southern High Plains. Critical to Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions are expected across much of southern and central New Mexico, into portions of far West Texas. ...Central/Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... Widespread 30+ MPH winds and 5-10% relative humidity is anticipated over much of southern, central, and even portions of eastern New Mexico. While dry and windy conditions are anticipated further east of the current highlights, recent wetting rainfall in eastern New Mexico over the last several days will serve to limit the receptiveness of fuels to wildfire ignition and spread. Therefore, Critical and Extremely Critical highlights have been confined to where fuels guidance shows ERCs exceeding the 90th annual percentile, primarily across southern and central New Mexico. ...Eastern Colorado... Elevated highlights have been maintained over eastern Colorado, where dormant/fine fuels are anticipated to be receptive to wildfire ignition and spread with an environment characterized by 10% relative humidity and 15-20 MPH winds. Some recent wetting rainfall has occurred across eastern Colorado, with areas receiving 0.75-2.0 inches of rainfall in the last 48 hours. The Elevated highlights in this update reflect the driest areas receiving little to no rainfall. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Southeast Pennsylvania and New Jersey... Elevated highlights were added across portions of southeastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey where strong offshore flow within a post-frontal regime is ongoing. Northwest winds of 15-25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph combined with relative humidity falling into the 25-35 percent range are expected through the early afternoon before winds subside late afternoon. Rainfall over the last 48 hours was spotty so pockets of receptive fuels remain, primarily in the New Jersey Pinelands. ...Southwest and adjacent High Plains... Significant fire weather threat remains across the Southwest with swath of Extremely Critical highlights in place across much of southern and central New Mexico. Elevated highlights were extended into far southeastern Utah and far western Colorado to account for some lower elevation receptive fuels. Otherwise, previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Williams.. 04/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0109 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... With a mid-level trough translating across the Intermountain West, and a lee cyclone deepening over the central High Plains, strong surface winds and deep boundary layer mixing are forecast across much of the Southwest into the southern High Plains. Critical to Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions are expected across much of southern and central New Mexico, into portions of far West Texas. ...Central/Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... Widespread 30+ MPH winds and 5-10% relative humidity is anticipated over much of southern, central, and even portions of eastern New Mexico. While dry and windy conditions are anticipated further east of the current highlights, recent wetting rainfall in eastern New Mexico over the last several days will serve to limit the receptiveness of fuels to wildfire ignition and spread. Therefore, Critical and Extremely Critical highlights have been confined to where fuels guidance shows ERCs exceeding the 90th annual percentile, primarily across southern and central New Mexico. ...Eastern Colorado... Elevated highlights have been maintained over eastern Colorado, where dormant/fine fuels are anticipated to be receptive to wildfire ignition and spread with an environment characterized by 10% relative humidity and 15-20 MPH winds. Some recent wetting rainfall has occurred across eastern Colorado, with areas receiving 0.75-2.0 inches of rainfall in the last 48 hours. The Elevated highlights in this update reflect the driest areas receiving little to no rainfall. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Apr 27 16:40:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible mainly this evening into early morning Monday across parts of the Great Plains. Large hail to very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level low over NV. A belt of strong southwesterly mid to high-level flow will extend from the base of the western U.S. trough through the southern/central High Plains later today into tonight. A pair of smaller-scale disturbances are forecast to eject east-northeastward into the central High Plains and Black Hills vicinity during the mid-late evening. Concurrently, an upper ridge over the eastern half of the Great Plains states will shift eastward over the MS Valley towards daybreak Monday. Late morning surface analysis shows a developing low centered over southeast WY with a lee trough/dryline extending southward through the southern High Plains. The cyclone will deepen near the WY/NE/CO border through early evening before developing northeast into central SD late tonight. ...Southeast MT...Western Dakotas... A sharpening lee trough is forecast by late this afternoon amidst appreciable heating and moistening, especially across western SD. Model guidance shows a narrow plume of 500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE (highest over SD) developing by mid-late afternoon as large-scale ascent begins to overspread the region. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop from the northern NE Panhandle to the Black Hills, and north of the developing low over southeast MT by late afternoon. The stronger storms will gradually move into richer moisture with an accompanying risk for mainly large hail and severe gusts. Gradual cooling during the evening will favor a transition to elevated storms evolving with time as a LLJ strengthens tonight. A severe risk will probably develop farther east in association with WAA into parts of the eastern Dakotas and MN late. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Visible-satellite imagery indicates a very moist boundary layer with a mix of a cumulus field across central and north TX and eastern NM/CO and stratus from the TX Caprock northward through OK to NE. The depth and quality of moisture sampled by the 12z Midland, Amarillo, and Dodge City raobs is considered seasonably moisture rich, and is located beneath an elevated mixed layer. Additional moistening through advection and evaporation will contribute to 60s dewpoints east of a dryline/lee trough by late afternoon. Strong heating is forecast near the dryline from western NE southward through West TX, which will result in a weakly capped but moderate to very unstable airmass by 21z. Large-scale forcing for ascent across the region will be nebulous, but low-level convergence along the dryline amid little to no convective inhibition may result in convective initiation. With dryline convergence as the mechanism for convective initiation, predictability is low. Dryline circulations will likely be strongest across the TX Panhandle/West TX where temperatures west of the dryline will be warmest, but low-level convergence will likely maximize in the CO/NE/KS border intersection vicinity near a developing surface low. As a result, these two areas may have a greater risk for thunderstorms (isolated, widely spaced storm coverage) late this afternoon into the evening. The overall environment will be very supportive of supercells with any storms that do form, with large to very large hail as the primary risk initially. If any storms manage to develop and become sustained, a strengthening low-level jet will support a tornado threat during the evening with any storms that persist (or develop along the retreating dryline). Nocturnal cooling and increased CINH by mid to late evening will act to eventually weaken storm activity in this region. ..Smith/Wendt.. 04/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible mainly this evening into early morning Monday across parts of the Great Plains. Large hail to very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level low over NV. A belt of strong southwesterly mid to high-level flow will extend from the base of the western U.S. trough through the southern/central High Plains later today into tonight. A pair of smaller-scale disturbances are forecast to eject east-northeastward into the central High Plains and Black Hills vicinity during the mid-late evening. Concurrently, an upper ridge over the eastern half of the Great Plains states will shift eastward over the MS Valley towards daybreak Monday. Late morning surface analysis shows a developing low centered over southeast WY with a lee trough/dryline extending southward through the southern High Plains. The cyclone will deepen near the WY/NE/CO border through early evening before developing northeast into central SD late tonight. ...Southeast MT...Western Dakotas... A sharpening lee trough is forecast by late this afternoon amidst appreciable heating and moistening, especially across western SD. Model guidance shows a narrow plume of 500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE (highest over SD) developing by mid-late afternoon as large-scale ascent begins to overspread the region. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop from the northern NE Panhandle to the Black Hills, and north of the developing low over southeast MT by late afternoon. The stronger storms will gradually move into richer moisture with an accompanying risk for mainly large hail and severe gusts. Gradual cooling during the evening will favor a transition to elevated storms evolving with time as a LLJ strengthens tonight. A severe risk will probably develop farther east in association with WAA into parts of the eastern Dakotas and MN late. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Visible-satellite imagery indicates a very moist boundary layer with a mix of a cumulus field across central and north TX and eastern NM/CO and stratus from the TX Caprock northward through OK to NE. The depth and quality of moisture sampled by the 12z Midland, Amarillo, and Dodge City raobs is considered seasonably moisture rich, and is located beneath an elevated mixed layer. Additional moistening through advection and evaporation will contribute to 60s dewpoints east of a dryline/lee trough by late afternoon. Strong heating is forecast near the dryline from western NE southward through West TX, which will result in a weakly capped but moderate to very unstable airmass by 21z. Large-scale forcing for ascent across the region will be nebulous, but low-level convergence along the dryline amid little to no convective inhibition may result in convective initiation. With dryline convergence as the mechanism for convective initiation, predictability is low. Dryline circulations will likely be strongest across the TX Panhandle/West TX where temperatures west of the dryline will be warmest, but low-level convergence will likely maximize in the CO/NE/KS border intersection vicinity near a developing surface low. As a result, these two areas may have a greater risk for thunderstorms (isolated, widely spaced storm coverage) late this afternoon into the evening. The overall environment will be very supportive of supercells with any storms that do form, with large to very large hail as the primary risk initially. If any storms manage to develop and become sustained, a strengthening low-level jet will support a tornado threat during the evening with any storms that persist (or develop along the retreating dryline). Nocturnal cooling and increased CINH by mid to late evening will act to eventually weaken storm activity in this region. ..Smith/Wendt.. 04/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday evening into early morning Monday across parts of the Great Plains. Large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Synopsis... Early morning satellite imagery shows modest upper ridging between a pair of well-defined cyclones, one centered over NV and the other centered over northern NY/VT. The NV cyclone forecast to shift slightly eastward throughout the day as a shortwave trough, and associated jet streak, rotate through its base. Moderate to strong southwesterly flow associated with this shortwave will spread northeastward from the Southwest into central Plains and Mid MO Valley. Recent surface analysis reveals an expansive area of high pressure centered over the Upper Great Lakes covering much of the eastern CONUS. A broad area of low pressure exists over the intermountain West, with several embedded lows. A tight surface pressure gradient exists between these two features across the Plains, and the resultant moderate low-level flow will contribute to northward moisture advection throughout the period. Any large-scale forcing for ascent associated with the shortwave progressing around the NV cyclone will remain west of this better low-level moisture (and associated buoyancy) until later tonight, when it reaches the northern High Plains. Ample buoyancy and moisture will exist across the central and southern High Plains, but the lack of stronger large-scale forcing for ascent will result in a more conditional severe thunderstorm potential. ...Southeast MT...Western Dakotas... A deepening lee trough is forecast to result in surface cyclogenesis in the far eastern MT/WY border vicinity by late this afternoon. Strong boundary-layer mixing is anticipated across the region, promoting airmass destabilization but also likely keeping dewpoints in the 40s across much of the region. Convergence along several boundaries across the region, including a surface trough extending across southeast MT and the lee trough along the eastern WY border vicinity, amid this destabilized airmass will result in thunderstorm development, particularly during the late afternoon/early evening as increasing large-scale ascent complements the low-level convergence. An eastward storm motion should take any storms that develop in better low-level moisture over time, with a strengthening low-level jet helping to maintain favorably moist low-level inflow. Even with this modest improvement in thermodynamics, nocturnal stabilization should result in storms becoming more elevated over time. Primary threat across this region are large hail and damaging gusts. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Mid 60s dewpoints are already in place across the Permian Basin and the general expectation is for low-level moisture to increase throughout the day. 60s dewpoints will likely be in place across all but far western KS by 21Z and into much of central NE by 00Z. Strong heating is anticipated across this region as well, resulting in an area of moderate to strong buoyancy from southwest NE into west TX by the late afternoon. Large-scale forcing for ascent across the region will be nebulous, but low-level convergence along the dryline amid little to no convective inhibition may result in convective initiation. With dryline convergence as the mechanism for convective initiation, predictability is low and convection-allowing guidance has limited utility. Dryline circulations will likely be strongest across the TX Panhandle/West TX where temperatures west of the dryline will be warmest, but low-level coverage will likely maximize in the CO/NE/KS border intersection vicinity near a developing surface low. As a result, these two areas may have a greater risk for thunderstorms today. The overall environment will be very supportive of supercells with any storms that do form, with large to very large hail as the primary risk initially. Strong downdrafts are possible as well. A westward shift of the dryline and strengthening low-level jet will support an increase tornado threat during the evening with any storms that persist (or develop along the retreating dryline). The kinematic environment improves notably across the TX Panhandle, western KS, and western NE between 00Z and 06Z, so any storms that are ongoing may be able to organize considerably before eventually weakening due to nocturnal stabilization. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 04/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday evening into early morning Monday across parts of the Great Plains. Large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Synopsis... Early morning satellite imagery shows modest upper ridging between a pair of well-defined cyclones, one centered over NV and the other centered over northern NY/VT. The NV cyclone forecast to shift slightly eastward throughout the day as a shortwave trough, and associated jet streak, rotate through its base. Moderate to strong southwesterly flow associated with this shortwave will spread northeastward from the Southwest into central Plains and Mid MO Valley. Recent surface analysis reveals an expansive area of high pressure centered over the Upper Great Lakes covering much of the eastern CONUS. A broad area of low pressure exists over the intermountain West, with several embedded lows. A tight surface pressure gradient exists between these two features across the Plains, and the resultant moderate low-level flow will contribute to northward moisture advection throughout the period. Any large-scale forcing for ascent associated with the shortwave progressing around the NV cyclone will remain west of this better low-level moisture (and associated buoyancy) until later tonight, when it reaches the northern High Plains. Ample buoyancy and moisture will exist across the central and southern High Plains, but the lack of stronger large-scale forcing for ascent will result in a more conditional severe thunderstorm potential. ...Southeast MT...Western Dakotas... A deepening lee trough is forecast to result in surface cyclogenesis in the far eastern MT/WY border vicinity by late this afternoon. Strong boundary-layer mixing is anticipated across the region, promoting airmass destabilization but also likely keeping dewpoints in the 40s across much of the region. Convergence along several boundaries across the region, including a surface trough extending across southeast MT and the lee trough along the eastern WY border vicinity, amid this destabilized airmass will result in thunderstorm development, particularly during the late afternoon/early evening as increasing large-scale ascent complements the low-level convergence. An eastward storm motion should take any storms that develop in better low-level moisture over time, with a strengthening low-level jet helping to maintain favorably moist low-level inflow. Even with this modest improvement in thermodynamics, nocturnal stabilization should result in storms becoming more elevated over time. Primary threat across this region are large hail and damaging gusts. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Mid 60s dewpoints are already in place across the Permian Basin and the general expectation is for low-level moisture to increase throughout the day. 60s dewpoints will likely be in place across all but far western KS by 21Z and into much of central NE by 00Z. Strong heating is anticipated across this region as well, resulting in an area of moderate to strong buoyancy from southwest NE into west TX by the late afternoon. Large-scale forcing for ascent across the region will be nebulous, but low-level convergence along the dryline amid little to no convective inhibition may result in convective initiation. With dryline convergence as the mechanism for convective initiation, predictability is low and convection-allowing guidance has limited utility. Dryline circulations will likely be strongest across the TX Panhandle/West TX where temperatures west of the dryline will be warmest, but low-level coverage will likely maximize in the CO/NE/KS border intersection vicinity near a developing surface low. As a result, these two areas may have a greater risk for thunderstorms today. The overall environment will be very supportive of supercells with any storms that do form, with large to very large hail as the primary risk initially. Strong downdrafts are possible as well. A westward shift of the dryline and strengthening low-level jet will support an increase tornado threat during the evening with any storms that persist (or develop along the retreating dryline). The kinematic environment improves notably across the TX Panhandle, western KS, and western NE between 00Z and 06Z, so any storms that are ongoing may be able to organize considerably before eventually weakening due to nocturnal stabilization. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 04/27/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... A lingering mid-level trough over the western U.S. (and its associated southwest flow), along with deep boundary layer mixing, will result in at least Elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of central and eastern New Mexico on Monday. ...Central and Eastern New Mexico... With receptive fuels (ERCs exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles) and dry, windy conditions across much of central and eastern New Mexico, at least Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. 00Z HREF guidance suggests that there is potential for Critical conditions, particularly across central New Mexico, but there is enough ensemble spread in the HREF to preclude adding highlights at this time. While the dry and windy conditions are likely to occur further east into the Texas Panhandle, recent wetting rainfall over the last several days should limit fire danger. ..Halbert.. 04/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... A lingering mid-level trough over the western U.S. (and its associated southwest flow), along with deep boundary layer mixing, will result in at least Elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of central and eastern New Mexico on Monday. ...Central and Eastern New Mexico... With receptive fuels (ERCs exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles) and dry, windy conditions across much of central and eastern New Mexico, at least Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. 00Z HREF guidance suggests that there is potential for Critical conditions, particularly across central New Mexico, but there is enough ensemble spread in the HREF to preclude adding highlights at this time. While the dry and windy conditions are likely to occur further east into the Texas Panhandle, recent wetting rainfall over the last several days should limit fire danger. ..Halbert.. 04/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Wednesday - North Central to Northeast Texas... A mid-level trough will eject across the southern Plains on Day 4/Wednesday. Forecast guidance still shows some timing difference which affect the location of the surface low and thus the region of the greatest severe weather threat. However, at this time, the area along and south of the Red River to east-central Texas remains the most likely location to receive some severe weather regardless of the exact solution. Moderate instability and an uncapped environment will support storm development during the day on Wednesday. At this time, it appears widespread convection amid a very moist profile could result in HP storms in close proximity with eventual growth into a MCS. Forecast soundings show favorable low-level shear which would support some tornado threat. However, the aforementioned storm mode concerns could limit this threat despite the favorable wind profile. ...Day 5/Thursday - Mid Mississippi Valley... As a mid-level trough advances from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes on Thursday, a surface low will also develop and continue northeast. The strength and location of this surface low are uncertain at this time due to differing evolution of the mid-level pattern. Warm-sector destabilization also remains highly variable. If a solution such as the GFS solution verifies, then a greater severe weather threat will likely exist across parts of Tennessee and northern AL/MS into parts of the Ohio Valley. However, if the ECMWF instability verifies, the likelihood of widespread severe weather goes down significantly. No probabilities have been added for Day 5 yet, but if details become more clear and favorable, probabilities may eventually be needed. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Wednesday - North Central to Northeast Texas... A mid-level trough will eject across the southern Plains on Day 4/Wednesday. Forecast guidance still shows some timing difference which affect the location of the surface low and thus the region of the greatest severe weather threat. However, at this time, the area along and south of the Red River to east-central Texas remains the most likely location to receive some severe weather regardless of the exact solution. Moderate instability and an uncapped environment will support storm development during the day on Wednesday. At this time, it appears widespread convection amid a very moist profile could result in HP storms in close proximity with eventual growth into a MCS. Forecast soundings show favorable low-level shear which would support some tornado threat. However, the aforementioned storm mode concerns could limit this threat despite the favorable wind profile. ...Day 5/Thursday - Mid Mississippi Valley... As a mid-level trough advances from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes on Thursday, a surface low will also develop and continue northeast. The strength and location of this surface low are uncertain at this time due to differing evolution of the mid-level pattern. Warm-sector destabilization also remains highly variable. If a solution such as the GFS solution verifies, then a greater severe weather threat will likely exist across parts of Tennessee and northern AL/MS into parts of the Ohio Valley. However, if the ECMWF instability verifies, the likelihood of widespread severe weather goes down significantly. No probabilities have been added for Day 5 yet, but if details become more clear and favorable, probabilities may eventually be needed. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected along a frontal zone that extends from the southern Plains to the eastern Great Lakes. ...Discussion... A cold front will move through the eastern Great Lakes on Tuesday afternoon and across New York Tuesday evening. Strong instability but weaker shear will be present along the frontal zone in Indiana and Ohio, with stronger flow, but weaker instability across New York. Therefore, strong wind gusts and perhaps an isolated tornado threat will exist across New York and western Pennsylvania with a greater hail threat likely across Ohio and Indiana. Farther west across the Lower Ohio Valley and into the Ozarks, the front will be more stationary. Mid to upper 60s dewpoints will be present south of this front which should allow for moderate to strong instability by Tuesday afternoon. Deep-layer shear is not that strong, but should be sufficient for some multicell clusters and perhaps a supercell or two. Persistent isentropic ascent should support thunderstorm activity in the vicinity of the front, likely across Oklahoma, on Tuesday. South and west of this morning/early afternoon activity is where the best environment should be on Tuesday. Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop across West Texas and into Northwest Texas Tuesday afternoon. As mid-level flow strengthens ahead of the approaching trough, effective shear will increase through the day. The combination of height falls along the dryline and a strengthening low-level jet near sunset should support supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts by late afternoon to evening. ..Bentley.. 04/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected along a frontal zone that extends from the southern Plains to the eastern Great Lakes. ...Discussion... A cold front will move through the eastern Great Lakes on Tuesday afternoon and across New York Tuesday evening. Strong instability but weaker shear will be present along the frontal zone in Indiana and Ohio, with stronger flow, but weaker instability across New York. Therefore, strong wind gusts and perhaps an isolated tornado threat will exist across New York and western Pennsylvania with a greater hail threat likely across Ohio and Indiana. Farther west across the Lower Ohio Valley and into the Ozarks, the front will be more stationary. Mid to upper 60s dewpoints will be present south of this front which should allow for moderate to strong instability by Tuesday afternoon. Deep-layer shear is not that strong, but should be sufficient for some multicell clusters and perhaps a supercell or two. Persistent isentropic ascent should support thunderstorm activity in the vicinity of the front, likely across Oklahoma, on Tuesday. South and west of this morning/early afternoon activity is where the best environment should be on Tuesday. Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop across West Texas and into Northwest Texas Tuesday afternoon. As mid-level flow strengthens ahead of the approaching trough, effective shear will increase through the day. The combination of height falls along the dryline and a strengthening low-level jet near sunset should support supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts by late afternoon to evening. ..Bentley.. 04/27/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... With a mid-level trough translating across the Intermountain West, and a lee cyclone deepening over the central High Plains, strong surface winds and deep boundary layer mixing are forecast across much of the Southwest into the southern High Plains. Critical to Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions are expected across much of southern and central New Mexico, into portions of far West Texas. ...Central/Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... Widespread 30+ MPH winds and 5-10% relative humidity is anticipated over much of southern, central, and even portions of eastern New Mexico. While dry and windy conditions are anticipated further east of the current highlights, recent wetting rainfall in eastern New Mexico over the last several days will serve to limit the receptiveness of fuels to wildfire ignition and spread. Therefore, Critical and Extremely Critical highlights have been confined to where fuels guidance shows ERCs exceeding the 90th annual percentile, primarily across southern and central New Mexico. ...Eastern Colorado... Elevated highlights have been maintained over eastern Colorado, where dormant/fine fuels are anticipated to be receptive to wildfire ignition and spread with an environment characterized by 10% relative humidity and 15-20 MPH winds. Some recent wetting rainfall has occurred across eastern Colorado, with areas receiving 0.75-2.0 inches of rainfall in the last 48 hours. The Elevated highlights in this update reflect the driest areas receiving little to no rainfall. ..Halbert.. 04/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... With a mid-level trough translating across the Intermountain West, and a lee cyclone deepening over the central High Plains, strong surface winds and deep boundary layer mixing are forecast across much of the Southwest into the southern High Plains. Critical to Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions are expected across much of southern and central New Mexico, into portions of far West Texas. ...Central/Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... Widespread 30+ MPH winds and 5-10% relative humidity is anticipated over much of southern, central, and even portions of eastern New Mexico. While dry and windy conditions are anticipated further east of the current highlights, recent wetting rainfall in eastern New Mexico over the last several days will serve to limit the receptiveness of fuels to wildfire ignition and spread. Therefore, Critical and Extremely Critical highlights have been confined to where fuels guidance shows ERCs exceeding the 90th annual percentile, primarily across southern and central New Mexico. ...Eastern Colorado... Elevated highlights have been maintained over eastern Colorado, where dormant/fine fuels are anticipated to be receptive to wildfire ignition and spread with an environment characterized by 10% relative humidity and 15-20 MPH winds. Some recent wetting rainfall has occurred across eastern Colorado, with areas receiving 0.75-2.0 inches of rainfall in the last 48 hours. The Elevated highlights in this update reflect the driest areas receiving little to no rainfall. ..Halbert.. 04/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL IOWA INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe weather remains likely across portions of the Upper Midwest, centered on Monday afternoon and evening. Very large hail, strong tornadoes, and damaging winds are expected. ...Synopsis... A strong (~75 knot) mid-level jet streak will advance from the central Plains to the Upper Midwest on Monday. As this occurs, a surface low will deepen across the Upper Midwest with an eastward advancing dryline to its south and a cold front to the west-southwest. A warm front will extend east of this surface low and move rapidly north through the day, spreading mid 60s dewpoints across much of the Upper Midwest. ...MN/IA/WI... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period north of a warm front across Minnesota and Wisconsin amid moderate isentropic ascent. Isolated large hail will be possible from these storms. A surface low will be located somewhere near eastern South Dakota and will start to advance east during the morning. This surface low is expected to deepen somewhat through the day (perhaps to the low 990s mb range) as it moves toward the Twin Cities. There is a consistent signal for thunderstorms to develop along the cold front as it intersects the surface low/dryline in west-central Minnesota Monday afternoon. After some initial hail threat, these storms will likely become quickly linear along the front with an increasing severe wind threat. Strong low-level shear will also favor some line-embedded tornadoes, particularly if there area any areas within the line which become more favorably oriented to the low-level shear vector. Additional thunderstorms are forecast to develop along the dryline from southern Minnesota to west-central Iowa during the afternoon on Monday. 00Z CAM guidance is not overly bullish with convective development south of the MN/IA border, likely due to relatively weak convergence along the dryline in western Iowa from most high resolution guidance. However, the lack of convection from much of the guidance does not seem realistic considering the overall pattern. ECMWF/GFS/NAM are fairly consistent with a deepening surface low across Minnesota and moderate to strong height falls across the dryline. The southern extent of the previous Day 3 moderate risk corresponds well to the southern extent of the more favorable height falls, and convective precipitation signal from the ECMWF/GFS. Therefore, no adjustments to the southern extent of the moderate risk were deemed necessary. However the moderate risk was expanded slightly westward to account for the expectation for earlier convective initiation (19-21Z) than shown by most guidance. Given very strong effective shear and over 3000 J/kg MLCAPE, expect any supercells which develop to become quickly severe with a threat for all severe weather hazards. As the surface low across Minnesota deepens the low-level jet is also forecast to strengthen across Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin. This will elongate low-level hodographs and support an increasing tornado threat during the evening. STP values of 3 to 5 are common across much of the warm sector ahead of anticipated storms with some guidance indicating values of 7 to 10. Therefore, any mature, discrete supercells which can form and maintain within the open warm sector on Monday late afternoon/evening will pose a threat for strong to potentially intense tornadoes. ...Eastern Kansas and northern Missouri to West Texas... Overall forcing will be weaker farther south along the dryline, but subtle height falls across a mostly uncapped warm sector could result in isolated to scattered supercell development Monday afternoon. A secondary area of higher severe weather probabilities may exist from portions of West Texas into southwest Oklahoma where the nocturnally strengthening low-level jet could support scattered supercell development Monday evening. However, weak height rises cast some doubt on storm coverage during the evening, precluding higher probabilities at this time. ..Bentley.. 04/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL IOWA INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe weather remains likely across portions of the Upper Midwest, centered on Monday afternoon and evening. Very large hail, strong tornadoes, and damaging winds are expected. ...Synopsis... A strong (~75 knot) mid-level jet streak will advance from the central Plains to the Upper Midwest on Monday. As this occurs, a surface low will deepen across the Upper Midwest with an eastward advancing dryline to its south and a cold front to the west-southwest. A warm front will extend east of this surface low and move rapidly north through the day, spreading mid 60s dewpoints across much of the Upper Midwest. ...MN/IA/WI... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period north of a warm front across Minnesota and Wisconsin amid moderate isentropic ascent. Isolated large hail will be possible from these storms. A surface low will be located somewhere near eastern South Dakota and will start to advance east during the morning. This surface low is expected to deepen somewhat through the day (perhaps to the low 990s mb range) as it moves toward the Twin Cities. There is a consistent signal for thunderstorms to develop along the cold front as it intersects the surface low/dryline in west-central Minnesota Monday afternoon. After some initial hail threat, these storms will likely become quickly linear along the front with an increasing severe wind threat. Strong low-level shear will also favor some line-embedded tornadoes, particularly if there area any areas within the line which become more favorably oriented to the low-level shear vector. Additional thunderstorms are forecast to develop along the dryline from southern Minnesota to west-central Iowa during the afternoon on Monday. 00Z CAM guidance is not overly bullish with convective development south of the MN/IA border, likely due to relatively weak convergence along the dryline in western Iowa from most high resolution guidance. However, the lack of convection from much of the guidance does not seem realistic considering the overall pattern. ECMWF/GFS/NAM are fairly consistent with a deepening surface low across Minnesota and moderate to strong height falls across the dryline. The southern extent of the previous Day 3 moderate risk corresponds well to the southern extent of the more favorable height falls, and convective precipitation signal from the ECMWF/GFS. Therefore, no adjustments to the southern extent of the moderate risk were deemed necessary. However the moderate risk was expanded slightly westward to account for the expectation for earlier convective initiation (19-21Z) than shown by most guidance. Given very strong effective shear and over 3000 J/kg MLCAPE, expect any supercells which develop to become quickly severe with a threat for all severe weather hazards. As the surface low across Minnesota deepens the low-level jet is also forecast to strengthen across Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin. This will elongate low-level hodographs and support an increasing tornado threat during the evening. STP values of 3 to 5 are common across much of the warm sector ahead of anticipated storms with some guidance indicating values of 7 to 10. Therefore, any mature, discrete supercells which can form and maintain within the open warm sector on Monday late afternoon/evening will pose a threat for strong to potentially intense tornadoes. ...Eastern Kansas and northern Missouri to West Texas... Overall forcing will be weaker farther south along the dryline, but subtle height falls across a mostly uncapped warm sector could result in isolated to scattered supercell development Monday afternoon. A secondary area of higher severe weather probabilities may exist from portions of West Texas into southwest Oklahoma where the nocturnally strengthening low-level jet could support scattered supercell development Monday evening. However, weak height rises cast some doubt on storm coverage during the evening, precluding higher probabilities at this time. ..Bentley.. 04/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday evening into early morning Monday across parts of the Great Plains. Large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level trough will move eastward across the western CONUS today. A strong jet will move through the base of the trough and begin to impinge on the central/southern Great Plains by evening. The primary surface low will deepen through the day over the central High Plains and move northeast across NE/SD late tonight. A secondary surface low is expected to develop near/west of the Black Hills during the afternoon. A lee trough/dryline will extend southward into the southern High Plains. Relatively rich low-level moisture will initially be confined to the southern Plains this morning, but will stream quickly northward later today and tonight in advance of the surface lows and dryline. ...Northern Great Plains... Large-scale ascent is expected to increase by evening across the northern Great Plains vicinity, in association with the approaching mid/upper-level trough and jet that will overspread the region. Richer low-level moisture will remain mostly south of this region through much of the day, but steep midlevel lapse rates, moderate buoyancy, and increasing deep-layer shear will support development of a few supercells by evening with a threat of hail and damaging winds. The longevity of any surface-based storms is uncertain and could be limited, but some tornado threat could evolve with any supercells that can persist into the evening, as low-level moisture and shear continue to increase. Some clustering and upscale growth will be possible later tonight, with a threat for hail and damaging wind potentially spreading eastward across the Dakotas into MN before the end of the period. ...Central/southern High Plains... Conditionally, the warm-sector environment across the central and southern High Plains will become quite favorable for organized convection, with strong instability developing by late afternoon in conjunction with strengthening low-level and deep-layer shear. However, despite diminishing MLCINH from afternoon into early evening near the dryline, there is only an inconsistent and relatively limited signal for initiation. One area of potential development will be from west-central NE into northwest KS, in the vicinity of the primary surface low. Guidance also has a somewhat stronger signal for development into parts of the southern High Plains, where strong heating/mixing may result in more favorable low-level convergence on the dryline. There is a relative minimum in signal for storm development from west-central/southwest KS toward the OK Panhandle, but any supercell that develops within this region would be within an increasingly volatile environment during the evening, and pose an all-hazards severe threat. Given the very favorable environment and at least some potential for isolated supercell development by early evening in the vicinity of the dryline, the Slight Risk has been expanded southward for the conditional all-hazards threat. It remains possible that portions of the Slight Risk may see little or no storm development. ..Dean/Halbert.. 04/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday evening into early morning Monday across parts of the Great Plains. Large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level trough will move eastward across the western CONUS today. A strong jet will move through the base of the trough and begin to impinge on the central/southern Great Plains by evening. The primary surface low will deepen through the day over the central High Plains and move northeast across NE/SD late tonight. A secondary surface low is expected to develop near/west of the Black Hills during the afternoon. A lee trough/dryline will extend southward into the southern High Plains. Relatively rich low-level moisture will initially be confined to the southern Plains this morning, but will stream quickly northward later today and tonight in advance of the surface lows and dryline. ...Northern Great Plains... Large-scale ascent is expected to increase by evening across the northern Great Plains vicinity, in association with the approaching mid/upper-level trough and jet that will overspread the region. Richer low-level moisture will remain mostly south of this region through much of the day, but steep midlevel lapse rates, moderate buoyancy, and increasing deep-layer shear will support development of a few supercells by evening with a threat of hail and damaging winds. The longevity of any surface-based storms is uncertain and could be limited, but some tornado threat could evolve with any supercells that can persist into the evening, as low-level moisture and shear continue to increase. Some clustering and upscale growth will be possible later tonight, with a threat for hail and damaging wind potentially spreading eastward across the Dakotas into MN before the end of the period. ...Central/southern High Plains... Conditionally, the warm-sector environment across the central and southern High Plains will become quite favorable for organized convection, with strong instability developing by late afternoon in conjunction with strengthening low-level and deep-layer shear. However, despite diminishing MLCINH from afternoon into early evening near the dryline, there is only an inconsistent and relatively limited signal for initiation. One area of potential development will be from west-central NE into northwest KS, in the vicinity of the primary surface low. Guidance also has a somewhat stronger signal for development into parts of the southern High Plains, where strong heating/mixing may result in more favorable low-level convergence on the dryline. There is a relative minimum in signal for storm development from west-central/southwest KS toward the OK Panhandle, but any supercell that develops within this region would be within an increasingly volatile environment during the evening, and pose an all-hazards severe threat. Given the very favorable environment and at least some potential for isolated supercell development by early evening in the vicinity of the dryline, the Slight Risk has been expanded southward for the conditional all-hazards threat. It remains possible that portions of the Slight Risk may see little or no storm development. ..Dean/Halbert.. 04/27/2025 Read more

MD 0573 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 175... FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO
Mesoscale Discussion 0573 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0713 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Areas affected...Eastern New Mexico Concerning...Tornado Watch 175... Valid 270013Z - 270215Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 175 continues. SUMMARY...The tornado threat across WW 175 will continue into the early evening, particularly in the vicinity of two isolated supercells near Roswell and Fort Sumner, NM. DISCUSSION...A pair of rightward-moving supercells have developed along and east of a dryline in eastern New Mexico. Recent trends in the KFDX VAD wind profiles show increasing low-level curvature of the hodograph, which should continue to enlarge this evening with the onset of the nocturnal low-level jet. Easterly surface winds that are antiparallel to the westerly storm-motion vectors will result in an overall enhancement of the storm-relative inflow near the surface, supporting robust updraft development and maintenance into the early evening hours. These supercells will be capable of 60+ MPH winds, 2.0+ inch hail, and tornadoes. Short-term forecast guidance does suggest the boundary layer will begin to stabilize with eastward extent after 01Z, limiting some of the tornado threat after dark, but persistent mesocyclones fed by strong storm-relative inflow may be able to persist a little while longer after dark. ..Halbert.. 04/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ... LAT...LON 32630435 33430472 33950486 34640497 34960502 35390467 35470425 35360379 35100332 34660304 34140293 33510280 33150282 32840292 32610323 32500389 32630435 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more