WW 0180 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 180 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LEITMAN..04/28/25 ATTN...WFO...FSD...DMX...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 180 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC021-035-041-059-063-119-141-143-147-149-167-281940- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUENA VISTA CHEROKEE CLAY DICKINSON EMMET LYON O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PALO ALTO PLYMOUTH SIOUX MNC015-023-033-063-067-073-081-083-085-091-093-101-103-105-117- 121-127-129-133-143-145-149-151-165-173-281940- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CHIPPEWA COTTONWOOD JACKSON KANDIYOHI LAC QUI PARLE LINCOLN LYON MCLEOD MARTIN MEEKER MURRAY NICOLLET NOBLES PIPESTONE POPE REDWOOD RENVILLE ROCK SIBLEY STEARNS STEVENS SWIFT WATONWAN YELLOW MEDICINE Read more

WW 180 TORNADO IA MN SD 281730Z - 290100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 180 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northwest Iowa Southwest Minnesota Extreme Southeast South Dakota * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 1230 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing along a surface front will develop east/northeast through the afternoon. These storms will have the potential to produce large to very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles east and west of a line from 85 miles north of Redwood Falls MN to 30 miles west of Storm Lake IA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Leitman Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN OH TO WESTERN NY AND PARTS OF WEST TX TO SOUTHWEST OK... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible within a broad swath from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly during the afternoon to evening on Tuesday. More probable corridors of greater threat are apparent over the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and in parts of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... A consolidated shortwave trough will accelerate eastward across the Great Lakes and southeast Canada, while a southern-stream trough over the Southwest to northwest Mexico slowly moves east. Primary surface low near the northern ON/QC border will quickly progress towards the Canadian Maritimes. An attendant cold front will push across the Lower Great Lakes Tuesday afternoon and evening. A weaker surface low should remain anchored over the TX Trans-Pecos. ...OH Valley and Lower Great Lakes... Forecast scenario is marred by uncertainty regarding evolution of remnant convection on Tuesday morning in the Midwest to Lower OH Valley, and signals for weaker mid-level lapse rates/instability relative to yesterday. Consensus of guidance suggests this morning convection should persist east and strengthen early in the diurnal heating cycle into the Upper OH Valley along related large-scale outflow. This could temper the northern extent of overall severe-storm coverage/intensity, as destabilization ahead of the cold front becomes limited. A distinct outlier in guidance, the 12Z ARW-NSSL, still indicates a favorable scenario for a more widespread wind and embedded hail threat, centered on the level 3-ENH risk area. The northern extent of the severe threat appears more conditional, but a few supercells remain possible with strong deep-layer shear and greater large-scale ascent in the lee of the Lower Great Lakes. ...West TX to the Ozarks... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected through the period along a quasi-stationary front that should shift slowly south via convective outflows. With persistent moderate to strong mid-level southwesterlies downstream of the AZ/NM trough, supercells and organized clusters are anticipated along the baroclinic zone. Peak severe threat should remain diurnally driven as differential heating across the composite front/outflows increases. The most probable corridor for supercells producing very large hail and a couple tornadoes appears to be from parts of the Permian Basin into southwest OK during the late afternoon. This activity should consolidate into broad clusters/MCSs by early evening with small-scale bowing structures possible. This should support isolated to scattered severe gusts as well before convection subsides. Another round of isolated severe is expected in the Permian Basin/TX South Plains vicinity Tuesday night, as the low-level jet strengthens south of the convectively modulated front. ..Grams.. 04/28/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE FAR WESTERN TRANS-PECOS... ...Lower Peninsula of Michigan... Current surface observations and short term model guidance suggests at least a brief period of elevated fire weather conditions across the Lower Peninsula of Michigan this afternoon. Substantial advection of low-level upstream moisture below 850 mb is not expected until this evening as a warm front moves in from the southwest. Relative humidity could fall to 20-25 percent range in some areas with south winds of 15-20 mph this afternoon, so Elevated highlights were added to the Lower Peninsula of Michigan. ...Southwest and portions of Southern High Plains... Forecast remains on track with breezy southwest winds, low relative humidity and dry fuels resulting in elevated to critical fire weather conditions expected through today. An intensifying surface lee trough across the Northern Plains will maintain breezy winds across the High Plains of Colorado. Elevated highlights were extended into far southeastern Colorado where minimal precipitation has fallen amid dry fuels, enhanced winds and relative humidity falling into the single digits are expected this afternoon. ..Williams.. 04/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025/ ...Synopsis... Downstream of an amplified large-scale trough over the West, a belt of strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. In the low-levels, a related lee trough will deepen over the southern High Plains. ...Southern New Mexico into the far western Trans-Pecos... West of the lee trough, downslope flow amid a dry antecedent air mass will promote deep boundary-layer mixing into the belt of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft. At the same time, the pressure gradient will tighten along the periphery of the deepening lee trough during the afternoon. This will result in a corridor of 10-15 percent RH across much of the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. These dry boundary-layer conditions, coupled with 20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts), will promote critical fire-weather conditions atop dry fuels over southern New Mexico into the far western Trans-Pecos -- with elevated conditions expected northward into southeast Colorado. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE FAR WESTERN TRANS-PECOS... ...Lower Peninsula of Michigan... Current surface observations and short term model guidance suggests at least a brief period of elevated fire weather conditions across the Lower Peninsula of Michigan this afternoon. Substantial advection of low-level upstream moisture below 850 mb is not expected until this evening as a warm front moves in from the southwest. Relative humidity could fall to 20-25 percent range in some areas with south winds of 15-20 mph this afternoon, so Elevated highlights were added to the Lower Peninsula of Michigan. ...Southwest and portions of Southern High Plains... Forecast remains on track with breezy southwest winds, low relative humidity and dry fuels resulting in elevated to critical fire weather conditions expected through today. An intensifying surface lee trough across the Northern Plains will maintain breezy winds across the High Plains of Colorado. Elevated highlights were extended into far southeastern Colorado where minimal precipitation has fallen amid dry fuels, enhanced winds and relative humidity falling into the single digits are expected this afternoon. ..Williams.. 04/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025/ ...Synopsis... Downstream of an amplified large-scale trough over the West, a belt of strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. In the low-levels, a related lee trough will deepen over the southern High Plains. ...Southern New Mexico into the far western Trans-Pecos... West of the lee trough, downslope flow amid a dry antecedent air mass will promote deep boundary-layer mixing into the belt of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft. At the same time, the pressure gradient will tighten along the periphery of the deepening lee trough during the afternoon. This will result in a corridor of 10-15 percent RH across much of the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. These dry boundary-layer conditions, coupled with 20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts), will promote critical fire-weather conditions atop dry fuels over southern New Mexico into the far western Trans-Pecos -- with elevated conditions expected northward into southeast Colorado. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Apr 28 16:51:02 UTC 2025.

MD 0585 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR FAR EASTERN SD...SOUTHWEST MN...NORTHWEST IA...FAR NORTHEAST NE
Mesoscale Discussion 0585 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Areas affected...far eastern SD...southwest MN...northwest IA...far northeast NE Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 281541Z - 281745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Isolated convection may develop over the next couple of hours from far eastern South Dakota into southwest Minnesota, northwest Iowa, and possibly northeast Nebraska. Large hail and damaging gusts would be initial risk, though a tornado risk also could increase with time/eastern extent. Area is being monitored for possible watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite/Day Cloud Phase RGB shows deepening cumulus developing along the surface boundary extending southward across eastern SD into northeast NE. Ahead of this boundary, broken cloudiness has allowed for filtered heating, and temperatures have warmed into the upper 60s to low 70s F. Meanwhile, a corridor of mid 60s F surface dewpoints is overspreading the region. Latest SPC Mesoanalysis and modified RAP forecast soundings suggest MLCIN has eroded, though warmer temperatures at 700 mb remain, which may limit instability through the 850-700 mb layer in the short term. Initial convection may tend to be somewhat elevated, though could become surface-based with time and eastward extent. Hi-Res CAMs are fairly inconsistent this morning, but generally suggest that convection will increase ahead of the surface low/southward trailing boundary in the next couple of hours. Given favorable shear, with enlarged and favorable curved low-level hodographs already in place amid moderate MLCAPE, convection could develop rapidly once large-scale ascent increases toward midday/early afternoon. Initial activity may favor large hail and damaging gusts early in convective evolution, with an increasing tornado risk with time/eastward extent. Timing for convective initiation and initial coverage is a bit uncertain, but trends are being monitored and a watch may need to be issued in the next 1-2 hours. ..Leitman/Hart.. 04/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR... LAT...LON 43099782 44979694 45249674 45369652 45479614 45479576 45269532 44909523 44219503 43319488 42859504 42519536 42269607 42219634 42159708 42189767 42339802 42619804 43099782 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1125 AM CDT MON APR 28 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Upper Midwest later this afternoon through late evening... * LOCATIONS... Southern Minnesota Western Wisconsin Northern Iowa * HAZARDS... Several tornadoes, a few intense Scattered large hail, some baseball size Scattered damaging winds * SUMMARY... Multiple corridors of severe thunderstorms are expected across the Upper Midwest later today into tonight, with a regional severe weather outbreak possible. The most dangerous period is likely during the late afternoon and evening when strong tornado potential should be maximized. Scattered large to very large hail and damaging winds are likely as well. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1125 AM CDT MON APR 28 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Upper Midwest later this afternoon through late evening... * LOCATIONS... Southern Minnesota Western Wisconsin Northern Iowa * HAZARDS... Several tornadoes, a few intense Scattered large hail, some baseball size Scattered damaging winds * SUMMARY... Multiple corridors of severe thunderstorms are expected across the Upper Midwest later today into tonight, with a regional severe weather outbreak possible. The most dangerous period is likely during the late afternoon and evening when strong tornado potential should be maximized. Scattered large to very large hail and damaging winds are likely as well. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN MN...NORTHERN IA...AND WESTERN WI... ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN OK INTO THE TX BIG COUNTRY AND SOUTHWEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Multiple corridors of severe thunderstorms are expected across the Upper Midwest later today into tonight, with a regional severe weather outbreak possible. The most dangerous period is likely during the late afternoon and evening when strong tornado potential should be maximized. Scattered large to very large hail and damaging winds are likely as well. ...Upper MS Valley... Morning water vapor imagery shows a broad positively tilted upper trough across the western states, with the band of primary mid-level winds extending from the central Rockies into the upper MS Valley. Embedded within the stronger flow, a progressive shortwave trough is evident over KS/NE that will track into IA/MN/WI this afternoon and evening. Strong large-scale forcing ahead of this feature will result in scattered intense thunderstorms. Strong southerly low-level winds are transporting mid 60s dewpoints rapidly northward into IA/MN. Cloud cover is limiting daytime heating, but sufficient destabilization from cooling/ascent aloft will lead to convective initiation along/ahead of the surface cold front by mid-afternoon. Storms will be most numerous over central MN, with increasingly sparse development with southward extent across IA. Supercells capable of strong tornadoes and very large hail appear likely. Storms will track into western WI during the evening with a continued risk of significant severe weather. ...Northern MO... Several morning CAM solutions suggest a secondary area of concern for discrete supercell storms over northwest MO and vicinity. While low and mid-level wind fields are a little weaker in this area compared to farther north, forecast hodographs remain favorable for tornadoes. Have therefore extended the 10% SIG tornado probabilities that far south. ...OK/TX... Strong heating occurring along a dryline that will extend from western OK into west TX. Large-scale forcing mechanisms are weak across this region, but a consensus of CAM solutions show scattered intense thunderstorm development over southwest OK/northwest TX by mid-afternoon, and further development southward during the evening. Very large hail and a few tornadoes are possible across this region. ..Hart/Wendt.. 04/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN MN...NORTHERN IA...AND WESTERN WI... ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN OK INTO THE TX BIG COUNTRY AND SOUTHWEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Multiple corridors of severe thunderstorms are expected across the Upper Midwest later today into tonight, with a regional severe weather outbreak possible. The most dangerous period is likely during the late afternoon and evening when strong tornado potential should be maximized. Scattered large to very large hail and damaging winds are likely as well. ...Upper MS Valley... Morning water vapor imagery shows a broad positively tilted upper trough across the western states, with the band of primary mid-level winds extending from the central Rockies into the upper MS Valley. Embedded within the stronger flow, a progressive shortwave trough is evident over KS/NE that will track into IA/MN/WI this afternoon and evening. Strong large-scale forcing ahead of this feature will result in scattered intense thunderstorms. Strong southerly low-level winds are transporting mid 60s dewpoints rapidly northward into IA/MN. Cloud cover is limiting daytime heating, but sufficient destabilization from cooling/ascent aloft will lead to convective initiation along/ahead of the surface cold front by mid-afternoon. Storms will be most numerous over central MN, with increasingly sparse development with southward extent across IA. Supercells capable of strong tornadoes and very large hail appear likely. Storms will track into western WI during the evening with a continued risk of significant severe weather. ...Northern MO... Several morning CAM solutions suggest a secondary area of concern for discrete supercell storms over northwest MO and vicinity. While low and mid-level wind fields are a little weaker in this area compared to farther north, forecast hodographs remain favorable for tornadoes. Have therefore extended the 10% SIG tornado probabilities that far south. ...OK/TX... Strong heating occurring along a dryline that will extend from western OK into west TX. Large-scale forcing mechanisms are weak across this region, but a consensus of CAM solutions show scattered intense thunderstorm development over southwest OK/northwest TX by mid-afternoon, and further development southward during the evening. Very large hail and a few tornadoes are possible across this region. ..Hart/Wendt.. 04/28/2025 Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0900 AM CDT MON APR 28 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Upper Midwest this afternoon through late evening... * LOCATIONS... Southern Minnesota Western Wisconsin Northern Iowa * HAZARDS... Several tornadoes, a few intense Scattered large hail, some baseball size Scattered damaging winds * SUMMARY... Multiple corridors of severe thunderstorms are expected across the Upper Midwest later today into tonight, with a regional severe weather outbreak possible. The most dangerous period is likely during the late afternoon and evening when strong tornado potential should be maximized. Scattered large to very large hail and damaging winds are likely as well. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Apr 28 14:02:01 UTC 2025.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN MN...NORTHERN IA...AND WESTERN WI... ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH-CENTRAL AND WESTERN OK INTO THE TX BIG COUNTRY AND SOUTHWEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Multiple corridors of severe thunderstorms are expected across the Upper Midwest later today into tonight, with a regional severe weather outbreak possible. The most dangerous period is likely during the late afternoon and evening when strong tornado potential should be maximized. Scattered large to very large hail and damaging winds are likely as well. ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows a mature cyclone centered over UT, with a shortwave trough progressing northeastward through the central High Plains within the eastern periphery of this cyclone. Farther north, overnight convection across SD has contributed to the development of vorticity maximum, which is currently moving into western MN. Early morning surface analysis places a deep low over central SD, with a dryline extending south-southwestward from this low across central NE, western KS, the northwest TX Panhandle, southeast NM, and far West TX. A warm front extends eastward from this low to the ND/SD/MN border vicinity before then arcing more southeastward across southwest MN, central IA, and eastern MO. A large warm sector characterized largely by 60s dewpoints exists between these two features. Expectation for the central High Plains shortwave trough to progress quickly northeastward throughout the period, accompanied by a strong jet streak (i.e. 70 to 80 kt at 500 mb). The surface low will eject northeastward as well, reaching central MN by 00Z and continuing into northwestern Ontario by 12Z Tuesday. Coincident northward/northeastward movement of the warm front will bring a warm, moist, and unstable airmass into the Upper Midwest ahead of the approaching dryline, which will likely extend from central MN southwestward into the TX Permian Basin by mid-afternoon. Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop along the length of this dryline, with the greatest severe potential across the Upper Midwest. ...Upper Midwest... A regional severe weather outbreak still appears possible across the Upper Midwest, with a threat of strong to intense tornadoes, very large hail, and swaths of damaging winds. Convective line ongoing across central MN is expected to continue quickly northeastward through the region, leaving ample time for the warm front to progress northward and bring a warm, moist, and unstable airmass into the region ahead of the dryline. Thunderstorm initiation along the dryline is forecast to begin around 18-20Z near the SD/MN/IA border intersection vicinity, before then continuing quickly eastward across southern MN and northern IA throughout the late afternoon and early evening. Volatile environmental conditions are expected south of the warm front and east of the dryline, with strong instability (MLCAPE near/above 3000 J/kg) and deep-layer shear, and a persistently intense low-level jet that will maintain very favorable low-level shear/SRH. This environment will be conditionally favorable for long-track supercells with strong/intense tornado potential if a discrete mode can be maintained. Quick upscale growth into a more linear or cluster mode is possible, but the vertical shear appears strong enough for a discrete mode to be maintained as well. A scenario where a primary line develops with discrete storms ahead of it is possible as well. In any case, the overall environment supports the potential for large to very large hail, damaging gusts, and strong to intense tornadoes with any discrete storms. Line-embedded tornadoes and strong gusts are possible within any convective lines. A more conditional scenario exists farther south from central IA into northeast KS/northwest MO. Here, the kinematic environment will remain supportive of supercells capable of all severe hazards, but capping could prove detrimental to deep convection given the weaker low-level convergence and large-scale ascent. Any supercell that can initiate and be sustained could become long-tracked within the expanding and very favorable warm sector, posing a threat for strong to intense tornadoes and very large hail. Farther west, a couple of supercells may develop in the region between the prefrontal trough/dryline and cold front, and pose a threat of large hail and locally damaging gusts as they move across northeast NE/southeast SD into parts of MN/IA. ...Western/Central OK...Northwest/Southwest TX... Daytime heating, and resultant airmass destabilization, coupled with convergence along the dryline is expected to result in convective initiation from the TX Big Country into southwest TX during the afternoon. Steep lapse rates and strong vertical shear will support supercells, with large to very large hail as the primary severe risk. Farther north in western OK, convective development will likely wait until around 00Z when the dryline begins to retreat. The increased low-level moisture coupled with a reduction in convective inhibition could result in a 2-4 hour window where convective initiation is more likely. At the same time, the low-level jet is forecast to strengthen considerably, resulting in a kinematic environment supportive of supercells. The tornado threat would likely maximize between 00-04Z before nocturnal stabilization forces storms to become more elevated. Hail potential could persist into north-central OK as any storms that develop progress northeastward throughout the night. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 04/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN MN...NORTHERN IA...AND WESTERN WI... ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH-CENTRAL AND WESTERN OK INTO THE TX BIG COUNTRY AND SOUTHWEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Multiple corridors of severe thunderstorms are expected across the Upper Midwest later today into tonight, with a regional severe weather outbreak possible. The most dangerous period is likely during the late afternoon and evening when strong tornado potential should be maximized. Scattered large to very large hail and damaging winds are likely as well. ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows a mature cyclone centered over UT, with a shortwave trough progressing northeastward through the central High Plains within the eastern periphery of this cyclone. Farther north, overnight convection across SD has contributed to the development of vorticity maximum, which is currently moving into western MN. Early morning surface analysis places a deep low over central SD, with a dryline extending south-southwestward from this low across central NE, western KS, the northwest TX Panhandle, southeast NM, and far West TX. A warm front extends eastward from this low to the ND/SD/MN border vicinity before then arcing more southeastward across southwest MN, central IA, and eastern MO. A large warm sector characterized largely by 60s dewpoints exists between these two features. Expectation for the central High Plains shortwave trough to progress quickly northeastward throughout the period, accompanied by a strong jet streak (i.e. 70 to 80 kt at 500 mb). The surface low will eject northeastward as well, reaching central MN by 00Z and continuing into northwestern Ontario by 12Z Tuesday. Coincident northward/northeastward movement of the warm front will bring a warm, moist, and unstable airmass into the Upper Midwest ahead of the approaching dryline, which will likely extend from central MN southwestward into the TX Permian Basin by mid-afternoon. Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop along the length of this dryline, with the greatest severe potential across the Upper Midwest. ...Upper Midwest... A regional severe weather outbreak still appears possible across the Upper Midwest, with a threat of strong to intense tornadoes, very large hail, and swaths of damaging winds. Convective line ongoing across central MN is expected to continue quickly northeastward through the region, leaving ample time for the warm front to progress northward and bring a warm, moist, and unstable airmass into the region ahead of the dryline. Thunderstorm initiation along the dryline is forecast to begin around 18-20Z near the SD/MN/IA border intersection vicinity, before then continuing quickly eastward across southern MN and northern IA throughout the late afternoon and early evening. Volatile environmental conditions are expected south of the warm front and east of the dryline, with strong instability (MLCAPE near/above 3000 J/kg) and deep-layer shear, and a persistently intense low-level jet that will maintain very favorable low-level shear/SRH. This environment will be conditionally favorable for long-track supercells with strong/intense tornado potential if a discrete mode can be maintained. Quick upscale growth into a more linear or cluster mode is possible, but the vertical shear appears strong enough for a discrete mode to be maintained as well. A scenario where a primary line develops with discrete storms ahead of it is possible as well. In any case, the overall environment supports the potential for large to very large hail, damaging gusts, and strong to intense tornadoes with any discrete storms. Line-embedded tornadoes and strong gusts are possible within any convective lines. A more conditional scenario exists farther south from central IA into northeast KS/northwest MO. Here, the kinematic environment will remain supportive of supercells capable of all severe hazards, but capping could prove detrimental to deep convection given the weaker low-level convergence and large-scale ascent. Any supercell that can initiate and be sustained could become long-tracked within the expanding and very favorable warm sector, posing a threat for strong to intense tornadoes and very large hail. Farther west, a couple of supercells may develop in the region between the prefrontal trough/dryline and cold front, and pose a threat of large hail and locally damaging gusts as they move across northeast NE/southeast SD into parts of MN/IA. ...Western/Central OK...Northwest/Southwest TX... Daytime heating, and resultant airmass destabilization, coupled with convergence along the dryline is expected to result in convective initiation from the TX Big Country into southwest TX during the afternoon. Steep lapse rates and strong vertical shear will support supercells, with large to very large hail as the primary severe risk. Farther north in western OK, convective development will likely wait until around 00Z when the dryline begins to retreat. The increased low-level moisture coupled with a reduction in convective inhibition could result in a 2-4 hour window where convective initiation is more likely. At the same time, the low-level jet is forecast to strengthen considerably, resulting in a kinematic environment supportive of supercells. The tornado threat would likely maximize between 00-04Z before nocturnal stabilization forces storms to become more elevated. Hail potential could persist into north-central OK as any storms that develop progress northeastward throughout the night. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 04/28/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT DAY REFERENCE ...DISCUSSION... The extended period will begin with broad troughing across the eastern US and a surface low tracking northeastward across the Great Lakes. A cold front will stretch from the northeastern US southward into the southern Plains, shifting eastward on D4/Thursday across the Ohio Valley into the southeastern US. Beyond D4/Thursday, heights will begin to rise across the Plains as an upper level high strengthens, which will limit the severe threat through the end of the extended. ...D4/Thursday - Tennessee and Ohio Valley... On D4/Thursday, thunderstorm development is expected along the cold front across portions of the Ohio Valley into the southern Mississippi Valley. Model solutions differ on how much instability will be available across Tennessee into the Ohio Valley, where the strongest flow aloft will reside. There appears to be little overlap between the better flow aloft and any meaningful instability, which keeps probabilities too low to include areas in the extended. However, some instances of wind and hail from stronger storms will be possible across portions of Tennessee into Ohio. ...D5/Friday - Southwest Texas... Thunderstorm development is possible along the dryline in southwestern Texas on D5/Friday. During this period, heights aloft will be rising, which will likely work to limit overall coverage of thunderstorm activity. Nonetheless, a few isolated supercells may develop with potential for large hail and severe wind. Overall, limited coverage does not warrant inclusion of probabilities. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT DAY REFERENCE ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes on Wednesday as a mid-level trough ejects into the southern Plains. Severe thunderstorms will be possible across east-central Texas into central/eastern Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject across the southern Plains on Tuesday. Surface low development is expected across western Texas on D2-Tuesday, with a weak low tracking eastward into east-central Texas by the D3-Wednesday period. Overnight thunderstorm activity is expected at the beginning of the D3 period across portions of central Oklahoma into east-central Texas. By the afternoon, additional scattered thunderstorm development along the dryline near the Red River on Wednesday afternoon will pose potential for severe wind, hail, and a tornado. ...East-Central Texas into southern Oklahoma... Scattered thunderstorm development along the dryline across central Texas into Oklahoma on Wednesday afternoon will pose some severe potential. Some uncertainty arises in coverage of morning convection and cloud cover. However, it appears a corridor of favorable instability and shear will overlap by the afternoon along and ahead of the dryline. Shear profiles will be supportive of supercells before clusters begin to form and attempts at upscale growth occur. Large hail and damaging wind will be the primary risks given steep lapse rates, though forecast soundings do show some curvature of low level hodographs favorable for some tornado risk with early supercell modes. ..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes on Wednesday as a mid-level trough ejects into the southern Plains. Severe thunderstorms will be possible across east-central Texas into central/eastern Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject across the southern Plains on Tuesday. Surface low development is expected across western Texas on D2-Tuesday, with a weak low tracking eastward into east-central Texas by the D3-Wednesday period. Overnight thunderstorm activity is expected at the beginning of the D3 period across portions of central Oklahoma into east-central Texas. By the afternoon, additional scattered thunderstorm development along the dryline near the Red River on Wednesday afternoon will pose potential for severe wind, hail, and a tornado. ...East-Central Texas into southern Oklahoma... Scattered thunderstorm development along the dryline across central Texas into Oklahoma on Thursday afternoon will pose some severe potential. Some uncertainty arises in coverage of morning convection and cloud cover. However, it appears a corridor of favorable instability and shear will overlap by the afternoon along and ahead of the dryline. Shear profiles will be supportive of supercells before clusters begin to form and attempts at upscale growth occur. Large hail and damaging wind will be the primary risks given steep lapse rates, though forecast soundings do show some curvature of low level hodographs favorable for some tornado risk with early supercell modes. ..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/28/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... Ahead of a midlevel trough moving eastward across the Southwest, moderate southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Here, boundary-layer mixing along the western periphery of a deepening lee cyclone over the TX Trans-Pecos will favor dry/breezy conditions across southern NM. Sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph amid 10 percent RH will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Additionally, isolated high-based thunderstorms cannot be entirely ruled out across portions of northern/central NM -- ahead of the approaching midlevel trough. While this may promote a localized risk of dry thunderstorms, confidence in sufficient coverage of storms over dry fuels is too low to add Dry Thunderstorm highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 04/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... Ahead of a midlevel trough moving eastward across the Southwest, moderate southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Here, boundary-layer mixing along the western periphery of a deepening lee cyclone over the TX Trans-Pecos will favor dry/breezy conditions across southern NM. Sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph amid 10 percent RH will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Additionally, isolated high-based thunderstorms cannot be entirely ruled out across portions of northern/central NM -- ahead of the approaching midlevel trough. While this may promote a localized risk of dry thunderstorms, confidence in sufficient coverage of storms over dry fuels is too low to add Dry Thunderstorm highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 04/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more