WW 183 TORNADO IA KS MO NE 282200Z - 290500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 183 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 500 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southwest into Central Iowa Northeast Kansas Northwest Missouri Far Southeast Nebraska * Effective this Monday afternoon from 500 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible SUMMARY...Supercells are expected to continue developing this evening while posing a threat for very large hail up to 2-3 inches in diameter. A few tornadoes also appear likely, with a couple of strong tornadoes possible with any sustained supercell. Scattered severe/damaging winds with peak gusts to 65-75 mph may also occur. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles north northwest of Des Moines IA to 35 miles south southeast of Manhattan KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 180...WW 181...WW 182... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0182 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0182 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 182 TORNADO OK TX 282100Z - 290400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 182 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 400 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Western Oklahoma West-Central Texas * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 400 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will intensify rapidly this afternoon in a very unstable environment. Very large hail and damaging winds are the primary threat. However, there is some concern for a few tornadoes during the early evening. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles south southeast of Big Spring TX to 40 miles north of Oklahoma City OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 180...WW 181... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Hart Read more

MD 0586 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MN...WESTERN WI...NORTHERN IA
Mesoscale Discussion 0586 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Areas affected...central/southeast MN...western WI...northern IA Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 281925Z - 282130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm potential will increase through late afternoon. All severe hazards, including tornadoes (some strong), very large hail (to 3 inch diameter) and damaging gusts (to 70 mph) are possible. DISCUSSION...A line of convection along a surface front across southwest MN into northwest IA will continue to shift east/northeast this afternoon. Ahead of this convection, the downstream airmass across central/southeast MN, northern IA and western WI continues to moisten and destabilize. Surface dewpoints have increased into the low to mid 60s as far north as the Minneapolis metro area, with upper 50s to near 60 F to the north and east. Continued northward moisture transport on a 50+ kt low level jet should continue to aid in further destabilization over the next few hours as large-scale ascent overspreads the region. Region VWP data from KMPX/KDMX/KARX already show impressive vertical shear favorable for supercells. Enlarged, curved low-level hodographs amid the strengthening low-level jet is aiding in 0-1 km SRH greater than 250 m2/s2. As weak MLCIN continues to erode, convection moving into this environment is likely to become better organized, with an increase in storm coverage expected into northern IA. Intense convection is expected to move across the MCD from late this afternoon into this evening, posing an all-hazards severe risk. A tornado watch will likely be needed in the next 1-2 hours. ..Leitman/Hart.. 04/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DVN...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX... LAT...LON 42299364 42419255 42649166 42859095 43209086 44389096 45279158 45589193 45799230 45909268 45879316 45779350 45579402 45119422 44129443 42629478 42519477 42349412 42299364 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

WW 0181 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0181 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0181 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0181 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 181 TORNADO IA MN WI 282025Z - 290400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 181 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 325 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northern Iowa Central and Southeast Minnesota Western Wisconsin * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 325 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible SUMMARY...A line of intense thunderstorms over western Minnesota will track northeastward across the watch area through the evening. Very large hail and a few tornadoes are the primary concerns. Strong tornadoes are also possible. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 95 miles north northeast of Minneapolis MN to 20 miles southeast of Fort Dodge IA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 180... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Hart Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FOR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHERN IOWA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN... ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT... ...SUMMARY... Multiple corridors of severe thunderstorms are expected across the Upper Midwest this afternoon into tonight, with a regional severe weather outbreak possible. The most dangerous period is likely during the late afternoon and evening when strong tornado potential should be maximized. Scattered large to very large hail and damaging winds are likely as well. ...IA/MN/WI through early tonight... A positive-tilt midlevel trough and associated 70-80 kt jet streak will eject quickly northeastward from the mid MO Valley to the upper MS Valley this evening. An associated surface cyclone will likewise move across MN/WI, while a trailing cold front moves southeastward into the central Plains, and a dryline mixes eastward into northwest IA/far eastern NE before stalling this evening. Storms are ongoing along the front moving across southern MN, where cloud breaks and moisture advection have resulted in substantial destabilization. Long, sufficiently curved hodographs will support a threat for large hail (potential greater than 2 inches) and tornadoes, with the threat for strong tornadoes maximized for storms that remain semi-discrete within the broken band. Otherwise, convection will spread eastward through early tonight into WI, with all hazards possible. Farther south, storm development is less certain along the dryline into western/central IA and northeast KS. Deepening cumulus along segments of the dryline in eastern NE and central KS could be precursors to isolated storm development late this afternoon/evening into western IA and northeast KS, respectively. The storm environment will conditionally favor supercells capable of producing very large hail and a few tornadoes. ...TX/OK through early tonight... Despite a narrow band of thicker mid-high clouds, surface temperatures continue to warm into the 85-90 F range along the dryline across west central/northwest TX. As surface heating removes convective inhibition, flow near 700 mb largely parallel to the dryline suggests sufficient residence times for storm initiation near or after 22z across northwest TX. Boundary-layer dewpoints of 65-70 F beneath midlevel lapse rates in excess of 8.5 C/km will contribute to large buoyancy (MLCAPE near 3500 J/kg), while deep-layer shear will be favorable for splitting supercells. The initial, more discrete storms will pose a primary threat of very large hail of 2.5 to 3+ inches in diameter. Though low-level shear will be modest this afternoon, some increase in low-level shear this evening in the zone of richer moisture near the Red River will allow a window of opportunity for tornadoes. Eventual upscale growth into an MCS is expected with an accompanying threat for large hail and damaging winds. ..Thompson.. 04/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025/ ...Upper MS Valley... Morning water vapor imagery shows a broad positively tilted upper trough across the western states, with the band of primary mid-level winds extending from the central Rockies into the upper MS Valley. Embedded within the stronger flow, a progressive shortwave trough is evident over KS/NE that will track into IA/MN/WI this afternoon and evening. Strong large-scale forcing ahead of this feature will result in scattered intense thunderstorms. Strong southerly low-level winds are transporting mid 60s dewpoints rapidly northward into IA/MN. Cloud cover is limiting daytime heating, but sufficient destabilization from cooling/ascent aloft will lead to convective initiation along/ahead of the surface cold front by mid-afternoon. Storms will be most numerous over central MN, with increasingly sparse development with southward extent across IA. Supercells capable of strong tornadoes and very large hail appear likely. Storms will track into western WI during the evening with a continued risk of significant severe weather. ...Northern MO... Several morning CAM solutions suggest a secondary area of concern for discrete supercell storms over northwest MO and vicinity. While low and mid-level wind fields are a little weaker in this area compared to farther north, forecast hodographs remain favorable for tornadoes. Have therefore extended the 10% SIG tornado probabilities that far south. ...OK/TX... Strong heating occurring along a dryline that will extend from western OK into west TX. Large-scale forcing mechanisms are weak across this region, but a consensus of CAM solutions show scattered intense thunderstorm development over southwest OK/northwest TX by mid-afternoon, and further development southward during the evening. Very large hail and a few tornadoes are possible across this region. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FOR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHERN IOWA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN... ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT... ...SUMMARY... Multiple corridors of severe thunderstorms are expected across the Upper Midwest this afternoon into tonight, with a regional severe weather outbreak possible. The most dangerous period is likely during the late afternoon and evening when strong tornado potential should be maximized. Scattered large to very large hail and damaging winds are likely as well. ...IA/MN/WI through early tonight... A positive-tilt midlevel trough and associated 70-80 kt jet streak will eject quickly northeastward from the mid MO Valley to the upper MS Valley this evening. An associated surface cyclone will likewise move across MN/WI, while a trailing cold front moves southeastward into the central Plains, and a dryline mixes eastward into northwest IA/far eastern NE before stalling this evening. Storms are ongoing along the front moving across southern MN, where cloud breaks and moisture advection have resulted in substantial destabilization. Long, sufficiently curved hodographs will support a threat for large hail (potential greater than 2 inches) and tornadoes, with the threat for strong tornadoes maximized for storms that remain semi-discrete within the broken band. Otherwise, convection will spread eastward through early tonight into WI, with all hazards possible. Farther south, storm development is less certain along the dryline into western/central IA and northeast KS. Deepening cumulus along segments of the dryline in eastern NE and central KS could be precursors to isolated storm development late this afternoon/evening into western IA and northeast KS, respectively. The storm environment will conditionally favor supercells capable of producing very large hail and a few tornadoes. ...TX/OK through early tonight... Despite a narrow band of thicker mid-high clouds, surface temperatures continue to warm into the 85-90 F range along the dryline across west central/northwest TX. As surface heating removes convective inhibition, flow near 700 mb largely parallel to the dryline suggests sufficient residence times for storm initiation near or after 22z across northwest TX. Boundary-layer dewpoints of 65-70 F beneath midlevel lapse rates in excess of 8.5 C/km will contribute to large buoyancy (MLCAPE near 3500 J/kg), while deep-layer shear will be favorable for splitting supercells. The initial, more discrete storms will pose a primary threat of very large hail of 2.5 to 3+ inches in diameter. Though low-level shear will be modest this afternoon, some increase in low-level shear this evening in the zone of richer moisture near the Red River will allow a window of opportunity for tornadoes. Eventual upscale growth into an MCS is expected with an accompanying threat for large hail and damaging winds. ..Thompson.. 04/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025/ ...Upper MS Valley... Morning water vapor imagery shows a broad positively tilted upper trough across the western states, with the band of primary mid-level winds extending from the central Rockies into the upper MS Valley. Embedded within the stronger flow, a progressive shortwave trough is evident over KS/NE that will track into IA/MN/WI this afternoon and evening. Strong large-scale forcing ahead of this feature will result in scattered intense thunderstorms. Strong southerly low-level winds are transporting mid 60s dewpoints rapidly northward into IA/MN. Cloud cover is limiting daytime heating, but sufficient destabilization from cooling/ascent aloft will lead to convective initiation along/ahead of the surface cold front by mid-afternoon. Storms will be most numerous over central MN, with increasingly sparse development with southward extent across IA. Supercells capable of strong tornadoes and very large hail appear likely. Storms will track into western WI during the evening with a continued risk of significant severe weather. ...Northern MO... Several morning CAM solutions suggest a secondary area of concern for discrete supercell storms over northwest MO and vicinity. While low and mid-level wind fields are a little weaker in this area compared to farther north, forecast hodographs remain favorable for tornadoes. Have therefore extended the 10% SIG tornado probabilities that far south. ...OK/TX... Strong heating occurring along a dryline that will extend from western OK into west TX. Large-scale forcing mechanisms are weak across this region, but a consensus of CAM solutions show scattered intense thunderstorm development over southwest OK/northwest TX by mid-afternoon, and further development southward during the evening. Very large hail and a few tornadoes are possible across this region. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Day 2 Update... Elevated Fire weather concerns will remain across southern New Mexico and far West Texas as modest mid-level flow aloft over a very dry, well-mixed boundary layer remains in place. Extended Elevated highlights into the Davis Mountains/Big Bend areas based on latest model guidance consensus and existing dry fuels. ...Coastal Mid-Atlantic... A tightening pressure gradient over the Mid-Atlantic region in response to an approaching trough will promote accelerating surface winds from the south and southwest Tuesday. Although dewpoints will be increasing through the day, above normal temperatures well into the upper 70s to lower 80s will support relative humidity 25-30 percent range by early afternoon. The relatively warm and dry air mass combined with southwest winds of 15-20 mph will promote elevated fire weather conditions across New Jersey and adjacent areas of southeast Pennsylvania and far southern New York. ..Williams.. 04/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025/ ...Synopsis... Ahead of a midlevel trough moving eastward across the Southwest, moderate southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Here, boundary-layer mixing along the western periphery of a deepening lee cyclone over the TX Trans-Pecos will favor dry/breezy conditions across southern NM. Sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph amid 10 percent RH will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Additionally, isolated high-based thunderstorms cannot be entirely ruled out across portions of northern/central NM -- ahead of the approaching midlevel trough. While this may promote a localized risk of dry thunderstorms, confidence in sufficient coverage of storms over dry fuels is too low to add Dry Thunderstorm highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Day 2 Update... Elevated Fire weather concerns will remain across southern New Mexico and far West Texas as modest mid-level flow aloft over a very dry, well-mixed boundary layer remains in place. Extended Elevated highlights into the Davis Mountains/Big Bend areas based on latest model guidance consensus and existing dry fuels. ...Coastal Mid-Atlantic... A tightening pressure gradient over the Mid-Atlantic region in response to an approaching trough will promote accelerating surface winds from the south and southwest Tuesday. Although dewpoints will be increasing through the day, above normal temperatures well into the upper 70s to lower 80s will support relative humidity 25-30 percent range by early afternoon. The relatively warm and dry air mass combined with southwest winds of 15-20 mph will promote elevated fire weather conditions across New Jersey and adjacent areas of southeast Pennsylvania and far southern New York. ..Williams.. 04/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025/ ...Synopsis... Ahead of a midlevel trough moving eastward across the Southwest, moderate southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Here, boundary-layer mixing along the western periphery of a deepening lee cyclone over the TX Trans-Pecos will favor dry/breezy conditions across southern NM. Sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph amid 10 percent RH will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Additionally, isolated high-based thunderstorms cannot be entirely ruled out across portions of northern/central NM -- ahead of the approaching midlevel trough. While this may promote a localized risk of dry thunderstorms, confidence in sufficient coverage of storms over dry fuels is too low to add Dry Thunderstorm highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday, centered on central Texas to eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. ...Synopsis... A southern-stream shortwave trough centered over NM will accelerate east-northeastward, reaching the Ozarks by 12Z Thursday. A weak surface cyclone over west TX should deepen slightly as it ejects towards the Lower MO Valley. A cold to quasi-stationary front on D2 will advance north as a warm front across the Lower MO/OH Valleys and Midwest. ...Southern Great Plains... An MCS will likely be ongoing at 12Z Wednesday, centered over western north TX to southwest OK, along the trailing portion of the convectively modulated quasi-stationary front. Low-level warm theta-e advection should persist through the diurnal heating cycle as the aforementioned shortwave trough accelerates east. Boundary-layer heating of the extensive rich low-level moisture plume downstream will likely support intensification of the MCS and additional development along its outflows through the afternoon. A mix of all hazards is possible, but damaging winds may be the primary threat given probable MCS/cluster mode. In its wake, late-afternoon storm development still seems probable in parts of central TX along the eastward-surging dryline. Primary uncertainty is with respect to the degree of outflow surge related to the morning MCS and where exactly the best corridor of supercell development may be near the outflow/dryline intersection. As such, a 10% or greater significant severe area has been withheld for now. Isolated severe hail may also accompany the mid-level trough passage over the TX Panhandle. ...Lower MO/OH Valleys... Severe-thunderstorm potential is evident on Wednesday afternoon to early evening along/south of the aforementioned warm front advancing north. Mid-level lapse rates should be modest, yielding minimal MLCIN by peak heating. A plume of moderate buoyancy combined with moderate to strong deep-layer shear should support a few supercells within a weakly forced regime. A mix of at least isolated damaging winds and large hail is plausible, with a tornado or two possible along the front. ..Grams.. 04/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday, centered on central Texas to eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. ...Synopsis... A southern-stream shortwave trough centered over NM will accelerate east-northeastward, reaching the Ozarks by 12Z Thursday. A weak surface cyclone over west TX should deepen slightly as it ejects towards the Lower MO Valley. A cold to quasi-stationary front on D2 will advance north as a warm front across the Lower MO/OH Valleys and Midwest. ...Southern Great Plains... An MCS will likely be ongoing at 12Z Wednesday, centered over western north TX to southwest OK, along the trailing portion of the convectively modulated quasi-stationary front. Low-level warm theta-e advection should persist through the diurnal heating cycle as the aforementioned shortwave trough accelerates east. Boundary-layer heating of the extensive rich low-level moisture plume downstream will likely support intensification of the MCS and additional development along its outflows through the afternoon. A mix of all hazards is possible, but damaging winds may be the primary threat given probable MCS/cluster mode. In its wake, late-afternoon storm development still seems probable in parts of central TX along the eastward-surging dryline. Primary uncertainty is with respect to the degree of outflow surge related to the morning MCS and where exactly the best corridor of supercell development may be near the outflow/dryline intersection. As such, a 10% or greater significant severe area has been withheld for now. Isolated severe hail may also accompany the mid-level trough passage over the TX Panhandle. ...Lower MO/OH Valleys... Severe-thunderstorm potential is evident on Wednesday afternoon to early evening along/south of the aforementioned warm front advancing north. Mid-level lapse rates should be modest, yielding minimal MLCIN by peak heating. A plume of moderate buoyancy combined with moderate to strong deep-layer shear should support a few supercells within a weakly forced regime. A mix of at least isolated damaging winds and large hail is plausible, with a tornado or two possible along the front. ..Grams.. 04/28/2025 Read more

WW 0180 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 180 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LEITMAN..04/28/25 ATTN...WFO...FSD...DMX...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 180 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC021-035-041-059-063-119-141-143-147-149-167-281940- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUENA VISTA CHEROKEE CLAY DICKINSON EMMET LYON O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PALO ALTO PLYMOUTH SIOUX MNC015-023-033-063-067-073-081-083-085-091-093-101-103-105-117- 121-127-129-133-143-145-149-151-165-173-281940- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CHIPPEWA COTTONWOOD JACKSON KANDIYOHI LAC QUI PARLE LINCOLN LYON MCLEOD MARTIN MEEKER MURRAY NICOLLET NOBLES PIPESTONE POPE REDWOOD RENVILLE ROCK SIBLEY STEARNS STEVENS SWIFT WATONWAN YELLOW MEDICINE Read more

WW 0180 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 180 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LEITMAN..04/28/25 ATTN...WFO...FSD...DMX...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 180 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC021-035-041-059-063-119-141-143-147-149-167-281940- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUENA VISTA CHEROKEE CLAY DICKINSON EMMET LYON O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PALO ALTO PLYMOUTH SIOUX MNC015-023-033-063-067-073-081-083-085-091-093-101-103-105-117- 121-127-129-133-143-145-149-151-165-173-281940- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CHIPPEWA COTTONWOOD JACKSON KANDIYOHI LAC QUI PARLE LINCOLN LYON MCLEOD MARTIN MEEKER MURRAY NICOLLET NOBLES PIPESTONE POPE REDWOOD RENVILLE ROCK SIBLEY STEARNS STEVENS SWIFT WATONWAN YELLOW MEDICINE Read more

WW 180 TORNADO IA MN SD 281730Z - 290100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 180 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northwest Iowa Southwest Minnesota Extreme Southeast South Dakota * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 1230 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing along a surface front will develop east/northeast through the afternoon. These storms will have the potential to produce large to very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles east and west of a line from 85 miles north of Redwood Falls MN to 30 miles west of Storm Lake IA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Leitman Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN OH TO WESTERN NY AND PARTS OF WEST TX TO SOUTHWEST OK... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible within a broad swath from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly during the afternoon to evening on Tuesday. More probable corridors of greater threat are apparent over the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and in parts of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... A consolidated shortwave trough will accelerate eastward across the Great Lakes and southeast Canada, while a southern-stream trough over the Southwest to northwest Mexico slowly moves east. Primary surface low near the northern ON/QC border will quickly progress towards the Canadian Maritimes. An attendant cold front will push across the Lower Great Lakes Tuesday afternoon and evening. A weaker surface low should remain anchored over the TX Trans-Pecos. ...OH Valley and Lower Great Lakes... Forecast scenario is marred by uncertainty regarding evolution of remnant convection on Tuesday morning in the Midwest to Lower OH Valley, and signals for weaker mid-level lapse rates/instability relative to yesterday. Consensus of guidance suggests this morning convection should persist east and strengthen early in the diurnal heating cycle into the Upper OH Valley along related large-scale outflow. This could temper the northern extent of overall severe-storm coverage/intensity, as destabilization ahead of the cold front becomes limited. A distinct outlier in guidance, the 12Z ARW-NSSL, still indicates a favorable scenario for a more widespread wind and embedded hail threat, centered on the level 3-ENH risk area. The northern extent of the severe threat appears more conditional, but a few supercells remain possible with strong deep-layer shear and greater large-scale ascent in the lee of the Lower Great Lakes. ...West TX to the Ozarks... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected through the period along a quasi-stationary front that should shift slowly south via convective outflows. With persistent moderate to strong mid-level southwesterlies downstream of the AZ/NM trough, supercells and organized clusters are anticipated along the baroclinic zone. Peak severe threat should remain diurnally driven as differential heating across the composite front/outflows increases. The most probable corridor for supercells producing very large hail and a couple tornadoes appears to be from parts of the Permian Basin into southwest OK during the late afternoon. This activity should consolidate into broad clusters/MCSs by early evening with small-scale bowing structures possible. This should support isolated to scattered severe gusts as well before convection subsides. Another round of isolated severe is expected in the Permian Basin/TX South Plains vicinity Tuesday night, as the low-level jet strengthens south of the convectively modulated front. ..Grams.. 04/28/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE FAR WESTERN TRANS-PECOS... ...Lower Peninsula of Michigan... Current surface observations and short term model guidance suggests at least a brief period of elevated fire weather conditions across the Lower Peninsula of Michigan this afternoon. Substantial advection of low-level upstream moisture below 850 mb is not expected until this evening as a warm front moves in from the southwest. Relative humidity could fall to 20-25 percent range in some areas with south winds of 15-20 mph this afternoon, so Elevated highlights were added to the Lower Peninsula of Michigan. ...Southwest and portions of Southern High Plains... Forecast remains on track with breezy southwest winds, low relative humidity and dry fuels resulting in elevated to critical fire weather conditions expected through today. An intensifying surface lee trough across the Northern Plains will maintain breezy winds across the High Plains of Colorado. Elevated highlights were extended into far southeastern Colorado where minimal precipitation has fallen amid dry fuels, enhanced winds and relative humidity falling into the single digits are expected this afternoon. ..Williams.. 04/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025/ ...Synopsis... Downstream of an amplified large-scale trough over the West, a belt of strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. In the low-levels, a related lee trough will deepen over the southern High Plains. ...Southern New Mexico into the far western Trans-Pecos... West of the lee trough, downslope flow amid a dry antecedent air mass will promote deep boundary-layer mixing into the belt of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft. At the same time, the pressure gradient will tighten along the periphery of the deepening lee trough during the afternoon. This will result in a corridor of 10-15 percent RH across much of the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. These dry boundary-layer conditions, coupled with 20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts), will promote critical fire-weather conditions atop dry fuels over southern New Mexico into the far western Trans-Pecos -- with elevated conditions expected northward into southeast Colorado. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE FAR WESTERN TRANS-PECOS... ...Lower Peninsula of Michigan... Current surface observations and short term model guidance suggests at least a brief period of elevated fire weather conditions across the Lower Peninsula of Michigan this afternoon. Substantial advection of low-level upstream moisture below 850 mb is not expected until this evening as a warm front moves in from the southwest. Relative humidity could fall to 20-25 percent range in some areas with south winds of 15-20 mph this afternoon, so Elevated highlights were added to the Lower Peninsula of Michigan. ...Southwest and portions of Southern High Plains... Forecast remains on track with breezy southwest winds, low relative humidity and dry fuels resulting in elevated to critical fire weather conditions expected through today. An intensifying surface lee trough across the Northern Plains will maintain breezy winds across the High Plains of Colorado. Elevated highlights were extended into far southeastern Colorado where minimal precipitation has fallen amid dry fuels, enhanced winds and relative humidity falling into the single digits are expected this afternoon. ..Williams.. 04/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025/ ...Synopsis... Downstream of an amplified large-scale trough over the West, a belt of strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. In the low-levels, a related lee trough will deepen over the southern High Plains. ...Southern New Mexico into the far western Trans-Pecos... West of the lee trough, downslope flow amid a dry antecedent air mass will promote deep boundary-layer mixing into the belt of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft. At the same time, the pressure gradient will tighten along the periphery of the deepening lee trough during the afternoon. This will result in a corridor of 10-15 percent RH across much of the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. These dry boundary-layer conditions, coupled with 20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts), will promote critical fire-weather conditions atop dry fuels over southern New Mexico into the far western Trans-Pecos -- with elevated conditions expected northward into southeast Colorado. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Apr 28 16:51:02 UTC 2025.