WW 0188 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0188 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0188 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0188 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 188 SEVERE TSTM IN KY OH WV 291630Z - 292300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 188 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM EDT Tue Apr 29 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Indiana Northeast Kentucky Central and Southern Ohio Northern Panhandle of West Virginia * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 1230 PM until 700 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A fast-moving cluster of thunderstorms over southeast Indiana is expected to remains intense and track across the watch area through the afternoon. Locally damaging wind gusts are the main concern. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles west northwest of Cincinnati OH to 15 miles north northeast of Wheeling WV. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 187... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...Hart Read more

MD 0600 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN MO/IL INTO NORTHERN AR
Mesoscale Discussion 0600 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0830 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Areas affected...southern MO/IL into northern AR Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 291330Z - 291500Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Strong to severe wind gusts will persist with a bowing cluster of storms moving across southern Missouri and northern Arkansas. A new Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be needed. DISCUSSION...A cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms moving into southwest MO/far northwest AR has produced wind damage and severe gusts recently at Miami, OK near the OK/MO border. The KINX VWP suggests rear-inflow near 40 kt behind this bowing cluster that is quickly moving east at around 50-60 kt. Downstream across southern MO/northern AR, surface dewpoints are in the mid to upper 60s F with temperatures already starting out in the low 70s this morning. This is supporting modest instability, which may increase some through the remainder of the morning/early afternoon given areas of clear to scattered cloudiness ahead of the system. While the bulk of this convection may remain over southern MO, some forecast guidance suggests southward development on the southwest flank may occur over northern AR. Eventually, convection will move into southern IL later this afternoon. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be needed soon across portions of the MCD area. ..Leitman/Hart.. 04/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA... LAT...LON 37829405 38139104 38348907 36998863 36088949 35839066 35409214 35699448 36229491 36819486 37279475 37829405 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0187 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0187 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF WEST TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK...AND FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible within a broad swath from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly during this afternoon to evening. Corridors of greater threat are expected over the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and in parts of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving through northwest Ontario and the adjacent Upper Midwest, and a mature cyclone centered over the central UT/AZ border. The northern shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the Great Lakes and eastern Canada today while also transitioning to a more negative tilt. The UT/AZ cyclone is expected to progress southeastward across AZ and into western NM as an embedded shortwave trough moves through its base across northern Mexico and into the southern High Plains. Early morning surface analysis places a low over eastern Lake Superior, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low into central OK where another, weaker surface low exists. The front continues westward from this second low across the TX Panhandle and through central NM. The northern low is forecast to progress eastward across eastern Canada, moving just ahead of its parent shortwave trough, ending the period over the Canadian Maritimes. The attendant cold front will also push eastward moving through the OH and TN Valleys, and much of the Northeast. Southern/western portion of the front will make limited southerly/southeasterly progress, with its position becoming more regulated by repeated convective outflow throughout the day. Numerous thunderstorms, some severe, are anticipated along the eastward progressing cold front from the OH Valley into the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast, as well as farther southwest across the southern Plains near the stalled boundary. ...Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes... Ongoing cluster across northeast OK will continue through the Ozarks this morning before reaching the Lower OH Valley this afternoon. It seems probable that this cluster will reintensify as it interacts with the destabilizing airmass over the region. Additional thunderstorm development appears likely along the front north of this cluster throughout much of the OH Valley into the Lower Great Lakes. Strong low/midlevel flow will support development of organized storm clusters, along with some potential for discrete or embedded supercells. Scattered damaging winds will be possible, with some potential for swaths of more concentrated wind damage if any organized linear segments develop. The strongest low-level flow will be displaced north of the region, but 35-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer will support sufficient low-level shear for some supercell and/or line-embedded tornado threat. Isolated hail could also accompany any persistent supercell structures. ...West TX into the Ozarks... Complex convective evolution is underway across OK this morning as a northeastward progressing convective cluster interacts with the thunderstorms that developed along the front over northwest/north-central OK. Current trends and recent guidance suggest that an MCS will evolve and then track northeastward across the Ozarks. The airmass downstream is expected to remain supportive of damaging gusts and large hail for at least the next few hours. Another round of thunderstorms is anticipated this afternoon both along the outflow-modulated cold front in OK and northwest TX and along the dryline in West TX as the airmass destabilizes. Strong buoyancy and shear will support supercells, particularly from west TX into southwest OK during the late afternoon where low-level convergence will be strongest. Large to very large hail will be the primary threat initially, but strong cold pools and close storm proximity should result in several clusters capable of strong to significant gusts. A mesoscale corridor of greater tornado potential may materialize just east of the surface low where stronger southeasterly low-level flow and higher low-level moisture may overlap. Current guidance suggests this would be over northwest TX, but uncertainty exists regarding the outflow/cold front and surface low positions, precluding the confidence needed to outlook higher tornado probabilities. ..Mosier/Jewell.. 04/29/2025 Read more

WW 0186 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 186 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N ADM TO 20 SSW CQB TO 20 NNE OKC TO 25 SE END TO 20 SW PNC TO 5 SSW PNC TO 25 NE PNC TO 20 N BVO TO 20 SSW CNU TO 15 N CNU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0599 ..JEWELL..04/29/25 ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...SGF...OUN...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 186 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-143-291340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON WASHINGTON KSC021-037-099-125-133-291340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE CRAWFORD LABETTE MONTGOMERY NEOSHO MOC011-097-119-145-291340- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 186 SEVERE TSTM AR KS MO OK TX 290735Z - 291500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 186 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 235 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Far Northwest Arkansas South-Central/Southeast Kansas Far Southwest Missouri Northern Oklahoma Far Northeast Texas Panhandle * Effective this Tuesday morning from 235 AM until 1000 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop across northwest OK and the far northeast TX Panhandle in the vicinity of a cold front progressing southward. This initial activity could pose a threat for large hail. This development will likely grow upscale with an attendant threat for damaging gusts as it moves eastward across northern OK and south-central/southeast KS into far southwest MO and far northwest AR. Some hail is possible within the stronger cells across these areas as well. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 95 miles west southwest of Alva OK to 20 miles east northeast of Joplin MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Mosier Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0852 PM CDT MON APR 28 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Upper Midwest this evening and overnight... * LOCATIONS... Wisconsin Northern Iowa Far Southeast Minnesota * HAZARDS... Several tornadoes, a few intense Scattered large hail, some baseball size Scattered damaging winds * SUMMARY... Multiple corridors of severe thunderstorms will continue this evening from the Upper Midwest into the central and southern Plains. Tornadoes, large hail, and severe gusts all remain possible, including some potential for strong tornadoes. Preparedness actions... Tornadoes at night can be particularly dangerous because they are usually fast-moving and difficult to see. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Gleason.. 04/29/2025 Read more

MD 0599 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 186... FOR CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0599 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0552 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Areas affected...central into northeast Oklahoma...far southeast Kansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 186... Valid 291052Z - 291345Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 186 continues. SUMMARY...Locally severe gusts remain possible from central into northeast Oklahoma. DISCUSSION...The leading edge of a small MCS which moved out of northwest TX and pivoted into southwest OK continues to produce measured severe gusts, most recently in Grady County as of 1030Z. North of this area, storms have gradually increased along the cold front extending from southeast KS into north-central OK. This line of storms is also beginning to produce outflow as well. An unstable air mass remains ahead of both convective systems, and it appears these storms will merge from central into northeast OK. Damaging gusts will remain the most likely threat, although hail of 1.00+" is likely in the stronger storm cores. ..Jewell/Mosier.. 04/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN... LAT...LON 36179771 36679683 37129590 37279534 37379454 37129419 36239417 34799667 34669735 35089757 35359796 35729808 35979802 36179771 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0186 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 186 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW CSM TO 55 N CSM TO 20 SW AVK TO 10 ENE AVK TO 30 NNW PNC TO 30 WNW CNU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0599 ..JEWELL..04/29/25 ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...SGF...OUN...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 186 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-143-291240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON WASHINGTON KSC019-021-035-037-049-099-125-133-205-291240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHAUTAUQUA CHEROKEE COWLEY CRAWFORD ELK LABETTE MONTGOMERY NEOSHO WILSON MOC011-097-119-145-291240- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... The severe potential remains limited through the day 4-8 period. On D4/Friday, an upper level trough will be located across the eastern US with strengthening upper level ridging across the western US into the Rockies. Along the dryline in far western Texas, a few thunderstorms capable of large hail will be possible. This threat may be limited in duration and coverage by the southward moving cold front expected to extend from the southern Plains into the northeastern US. As this front shifts southward and a surface high builds in across the central US D5/Saturday into D6/Sunday, moisture will be scoured out of much of the CONUS limiting the severe threat. As the surface high shifts eastward across the Midwest, slow moisture return will begin across the southern Plains late D6/Sunday into D7/Monday. During this period, the next upper-level wave will be deepening across the western US. As this system evolves, severe potential may return late in the period across portions of the southern and central Plains. Read more

MD 0598 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0598 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Areas affected...southwest Oklahoma into northwest Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 290806Z - 291000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few strong to severe gust may occur from northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma this morning. The situation may not require a watch. DISCUSSION...An MCS is rapidly moving eastward into northwest TX, with several gusts over 50 kt recently. Radar indicates the leading edge of this convective line remains strong and well balanced. Given a moist and unstable air mass downstream, it is expected this system will persist for a few more hours. However, longevity may also depend on capping. At the very least, isolated severe gusts may occur. Trends will continue to be monitored. ..Jewell/Mosier.. 04/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB... LAT...LON 34309996 34709984 34819944 34939822 34759773 34489756 34019759 33569772 33399840 33180004 33270030 34309996 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0186 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0186 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected from central Texas into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys northward to the Great Lakes. Thunderstorms will pose a risk for strong to severe winds and hail. ...Discussion... A mid-level trough will eject across the Midwest into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys region on Thursday, with a broad area of enhanced southwesterly flow extending from the lower Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes region. A cold front will sag southward through this region, with potential for scattered thunderstorm development throughout the day Thursday across a broad region. A primarily marginal risk for wind and hail will be possible with this activity. This overall risk is limited by displacement of better shear northward through time with respect to the more favorable air mass across Tennessee southward into northern MS/AR/northern LA. Nonetheless, dew points in the mid 50s to 60s will extend as far north as the Great Lakes, where stronger deep layer shear is forecast which supports bringing the probabilities into this region. Early in the D3/Thursday period, a line of thunderstorms may be ongoing across northeastern Texas into central Arkansas. Some re-intensification of this activity will be possible through the afternoon as the air mass downstream warms and becomes favorably unstable. Weaker shear profiles and forcing gradually shifting northward through the afternoon/evening will likely keep this threat lower. Nonetheless, potential for damaging wind will be possible. Further west across the dryline in central Texas, deep layer flow will remain modest enough to support potential for some thunderstorm development by the late afternoon. While low level shear will be weak, deep layer flow will support potential for instances of severe hail, given steep low to mid-level lapse rates. ..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected from central Texas into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys northward to the Great Lakes. Thunderstorms will pose a risk for strong to severe winds and hail. ...Discussion... A mid-level trough will eject across the Midwest into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys region on Thursday, with a broad area of enhanced southwesterly flow extending from the lower Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes region. A cold front will sag southward through this region, with potential for scattered thunderstorm development throughout the day Thursday across a broad region. A primarily marginal risk for wind and hail will be possible with this activity. This overall risk is limited by displacement of better shear northward through time with respect to the more favorable air mass across Tennessee southward into northern MS/AR/northern LA. Nonetheless, dew points in the mid 50s to 60s will extend as far north as the Great Lakes, where stronger deep layer shear is forecast which supports bringing the probabilities into this region. Early in the D3/Thursday period, a line of thunderstorms may be ongoing across northeastern Texas into central Arkansas. Some re-intensification of this activity will be possible through the afternoon as the air mass downstream warms and becomes favorably unstable. Weaker shear profiles and forcing gradually shifting northward through the afternoon/evening will likely keep this threat lower. Nonetheless, potential for damaging wind will be possible. Further west across the dryline in central Texas, deep layer flow will remain modest enough to support potential for some thunderstorm development by the late afternoon. While low level shear will be weak, deep layer flow will support potential for instances of severe hail, given steep low to mid-level lapse rates. ..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/29/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... Within the base of a midlevel trough crossing the southern Rockies, enhanced deep-layer westerly flow will overspread southern NM into the TX Trans-Pecos. Here, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will promote breezy westerly surface winds amid 5-10 percent RH west of a dryline. This will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions where fuels remain dry (west of areas that have received recent measurable rainfall). ..Weinman.. 04/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... Within the base of a midlevel trough crossing the southern Rockies, enhanced deep-layer westerly flow will overspread southern NM into the TX Trans-Pecos. Here, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will promote breezy westerly surface winds amid 5-10 percent RH west of a dryline. This will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions where fuels remain dry (west of areas that have received recent measurable rainfall). ..Weinman.. 04/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... Ahead of a slow-moving large-scale trough over the Four Corners, moderate-strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow will overspread a deeply mixed post-dryline air mass over southern NM into the Trans-Pecos. A modest pressure gradient and enhanced winds through the boundary layer will yield 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) and 5-10 percent RH during the afternoon. Given dry fuels, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Farther east, dry/breezy return flow will develop across portions of the Mid-Atlantic states. With modestly receptive fuels across the area, 10-15 mph southerly surface winds and around 30 percent RH will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. ..Weinman.. 04/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... Ahead of a slow-moving large-scale trough over the Four Corners, moderate-strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow will overspread a deeply mixed post-dryline air mass over southern NM into the Trans-Pecos. A modest pressure gradient and enhanced winds through the boundary layer will yield 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) and 5-10 percent RH during the afternoon. Given dry fuels, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Farther east, dry/breezy return flow will develop across portions of the Mid-Atlantic states. With modestly receptive fuels across the area, 10-15 mph southerly surface winds and around 30 percent RH will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. ..Weinman.. 04/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more