SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected across much of the southern plains into the southeastern and eastern US. Severe storms capable of damaging wind and large hail will be possible across southwestern Texas. ...Discussion... The pattern on D3/Friday will include a trough moving across the Central Plains into the Midwest and a trailing cold front extending from New England southward across the mid-South and into the southern Plains. Early in the period, an MCS may be ongoing across southern Oklahoma/northern Texas. This may pose a continued risk of damaging wind from late D2/Thursday into D3/Friday as the air mass ahead of this is progged to be unstable and supportive of continued maintenance south and eastward. Across southwestern Texas, thunderstorm development is likely near the cold front and dryline. The mode here would favor supercells capable of large to very large hail. The cold front is expected to gradually shift southward, which may lead to a transition into a more mixed mode of supercells and multi cell clusters. Nonetheless, potential exists for large hail and damaging winds. Scattered thunderstorm development is likely across the frontal boundary across much of the Southeast to the East Coast. It remains unclear if there is a corridor of more favorable potential for strong to severe storms at this time. A broad plume of instability will extend along and south of the front across this region, but flow remains relatively weak. As such, no areas were included with this outlook but a stronger storm or two could not be ruled out. ..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected across much of the southern plains into the southeastern and eastern US. Severe storms capable of damaging wind and large hail will be possible across southwestern Texas. ...Discussion... The pattern on D3/Friday will include a trough moving across the Central Plains into the Midwest and a trailing cold front extending from New England southward across the mid-South and into the southern Plains. Early in the period, an MCS may be ongoing across southern Oklahoma/northern Texas. This may pose a continued risk of damaging wind from late D2/Thursday into D3/Friday as the air mass ahead of this is progged to be unstable and supportive of continued maintenance south and eastward. Across southwestern Texas, thunderstorm development is likely near the cold front and dryline. The mode here would favor supercells capable of large to very large hail. The cold front is expected to gradually shift southward, which may lead to a transition into a more mixed mode of supercells and multi cell clusters. Nonetheless, potential exists for large hail and damaging winds. Scattered thunderstorm development is likely across the frontal boundary across much of the Southeast to the East Coast. It remains unclear if there is a corridor of more favorable potential for strong to severe storms at this time. A broad plume of instability will extend along and south of the front across this region, but flow remains relatively weak. As such, no areas were included with this outlook but a stronger storm or two could not be ruled out. ..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The primary synoptic-scale midlevel troughing and related enhanced flow aloft will generally be confined to the eastern half of the CONUS on Thursday. This large-scale pattern will limit the overlap of dry and windy conditions across the CONUS -- mitigating fire-weather concerns. ..Weinman.. 04/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... A low-latitude midlevel trough will cross the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains during the day. Within the base of the trough, moderate-strong deep-layer westerly flow will overspread a deeply mixed post-dryline air mass across southeast NM into the Trans-Pecos. Sustained westerly surface winds around 20 mph coupled with 10 percent RH will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Farther east, breezy easterly surface winds (around 10-15 mph) will develop amid 30 percent RH across parts of southern and central FL during the afternoon -- along the southwestern periphery of the Bermuda High. Given dry/receptive fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. Dry/offshore flow is expected across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states today, which may promote locally elevated fire-weather conditions. However, a modest pressure gradient and marginal surface winds (around 10-15 mph) should generally limit the fire-weather risk. ..Weinman.. 04/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe thunderstorm development is expected from central Texas into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys northward to the Great Lakes Thursday. Thunderstorms will pose a risk for strong to severe winds and hail. ...Synopsis... A broad region of southwesterly flow aloft will extend across the lower Mississippi River Valley into the Great Lakes region Thursday, with a mid-level vort max forecast to be moving eastward across the Ozarks toward the Ohio Valley. Weak low pressure initially progged to reside over the Missouri vicinity will gradually deepen as it shifts east-northeastward into the Midwest through the day before moving across Lower Michigan and into Ontario overnight. A trailing cold front is forecast to shift gradually southeastward across the Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley/southern Plains through the period. ...Lower Great Lakes southwestward to Texas... Thunderstorm activity will likely be ongoing near the front at the edge of the Marginal Risk at the beginning of D2/Thursday. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected by the late morning/afternoon along and ahead of the front. Flow at 850 mb will be strongest from the mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley. Sufficient instability will extend far enough northward to the Great Lakes region to support a risk for damaging wind. Across the lower Mississippi Valley, flow will be weaker but thunderstorms are expected to re-develop by the afternoon. Given steep lapse rates, sufficient shear, and moderate CAPE, the potential for damaging winds will be possible. Across central Texas, forcing for ascent will be weaker but a few supercells may develop near the dryline. Guidance indicates the dryline may surge eastward by the late afternoon. Though the flow is weak, around 25-30 kts of deep layer flow across the dryline should be sufficient to organize storms. The air mass ahead of the dryline will be characterized by MLCAPE around 2000-3000 J/kg and a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates, and minimal MLCIN. Supercells in this regime would be capable of large to very large hail. ...Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma... Elevated thunderstorms may develop across portions of the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle late in the D2/Thursday period. These would likely be initially elevated but would pose some risk for hail and damaging wind. Consensus is that this would likely consolidate into an MCS and move across western Oklahoma through the end of the period, with the damaging wind risk continuing through the end of the D2 period. ..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH-CENTRAL TX INTO SOUTHEAST OK...SOUTHWEST AR...AND EXTREME NORTHWEST LA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on later today into this evening, with the greatest risk expected across north-central Texas into the ArkLaTex region. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are all possible, with some strong-tornado potential. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough will move across the southern Plains today. A surface low will move southwest into northeast TX, along an outflow-reinforced front. Farther east, a warm front will move northward across parts of the mid MS Valley, and remain nearly stationary into parts of the Mid Atlantic. ...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex/Ozarks... An MCS may be ongoing during the morning near the Red River Valley vicinity. This MCS may reintensify as it moves into a moist and unstable environment from eastern OK into western AR, accompanied by a threat for damaging winds, along with a localized hail/tornado threat. The effective front/outflow position will be modulated by this potential MCS, but this boundary will likely reside somewhere across north-central/northeast TX during the afternoon. Near/south of the boundary, diurnal heating of the moist airmass will result in scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon, with deep-layer shear profiles supporting supercell development. Large to very large hail will be a threat with any initial supercells. Also, with the approach of the mid/upper-level shortwave trough and attendant surface low, low-level flow is expected to remain rather strong through the day, supporting sufficient SRH for a tornado threat with any surface-based supercells, including some localized strong tornado potential. While uncertainty remains regarding mesoscale details regarding the outflow boundary, there is sufficient confidence in a corridor of supercell development for the addition of an Enhanced Risk. Eventual storm clustering could lead to development of a nocturnal MCS that could eventually approach parts of the lower MS Valley, with at least an isolated severe threat. Additional strong to severe storms will be possible across parts of west TX, in closer proximity to the remnant midlevel low. Cold temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates will support a threat of hail and localized severe gusts, even though deep-layer flow/shear will be more modest within this regime. These storms may eventually spread toward southwest OK/northwest TX before weakening. ...Parts of MS/OH Valleys... An MCV may move across parts of the MS/OH Valleys during the day, in the vicinity of the northward-moving warm front. Scattered storms may develop near the front during the afternoon, within a moist and destabilizing airmass. There is some potential for at least transient storm organization in the vicinity of the frontal zone, with an attendant threat for hail, locally damaging wind, and possibly a tornado. Uncertainty remains regarding the potential for early convection/cloudiness to disrupt destabilization in this area, but higher severe probabilities may eventually be needed if trends support robust storm development during the afternoon/evening. ...Southern VA/northern NC... Scattered storm development will be possible near the front across parts of VA/NC. Deep-layer flow/shear will generally be weak, but steep low-level lapse rates could support locally damaging outflow winds with the strongest storms. ..Dean/Weinman.. 04/30/2025 Read more

MD 0614 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 195... FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 0614 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Areas affected...Southern Plains Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 195... Valid 300442Z - 300645Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 195 continues. SUMMARY...Robust convection will continue to regenerate across the southern Plains into the pre-dawn hours. Hail is the primary risk with this activity. DISCUSSION...Large-scale forcing appears to be increasing across the southern High Plains late this evening ahead of a short-wave trough that is ejecting into this region. LLJ is strengthening across southwest/west TX ahead of this feature, and VWP data supports this with 40-50kt 1km south-southeasterly flow. Of particular concern is the near-stationary boundary that is draped from south of ADM-north of ABI-MAF. This front is not expected to move appreciably through sunrise and strong low-level warm advection will prove efficient in generating elevated convection north of the wind shift. Hail should be common with this activity as modest MUCAPE/steep lapse rates exist well north of the front. Latest thinking is multiple elevated thunderstorm clusters will evolve over the TX South Plains over the next several hours, then spread northeast into southern OK. ..Darrow.. 04/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 33010305 33830109 34609906 34379691 33509693 32050095 32090272 33010305 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 0615 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 195... FOR RED RIVER VALLEY AND VICINITY
Mesoscale Discussion 0615 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Areas affected...Red River Valley and vicinity Concerning...Tornado Watch 195... Valid 300539Z - 300715Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 195 continues. SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe storms producing hail or locally severe gusts will remain possible across the region, and a severe thunderstorm watch may be needed as the tornado watch expires at 0600Z. DISCUSSION...A large MCS continues to push east across OK, with rear-inflow/confluence bands developing westward along I-40. Meanwhile, sporadic supercells with hail cores persist over northwest TX and along the Red River, near the deeper outflow boundary. Given persistent southerly flow at 850 mb with a moist and unstable air mass, additional severe cells may redevelop within this zone tonight. As such, a severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed. Otherwise, severe storms continue to develop west of this area inside WW 0195. With time, much of this activity could merge into yet another MCS. ..Jewell.. 04/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...LUB... LAT...LON 34399976 34499966 34579940 34609711 34589514 34409454 33839467 33769500 33489701 33509866 33479967 33990006 34399976 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0194 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 194 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..04/30/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 194 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC019-033-049-067-069-085-095-099-123-137-300440- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER COTTON GARVIN JEFFERSON JOHNSTON LOVE MARSHALL MURRAY PONTOTOC STEPHENS TXC009-023-077-097-181-237-275-337-485-487-497-503-300440- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR CLAY COOKE GRAYSON JACK KNOX MONTAGUE WICHITA WILBARGER WISE YOUNG THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 194 TORNADO OK TX 292315Z - 300600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 194 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 615 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Oklahoma North Texas * Effective this Tuesday night and Wednesday morning from 615 PM until 100 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Clusters of storms including some embedded/semi-discrete supercells will continue to focus along a boundary, moving generally east-northeastward across the region this evening. This will likely have an increasing tornado risk this evening, with a continued large hail risk, and increasing damaging winds as potential MCS development occurs later this evening. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles north northeast of Sherman TX to 115 miles west southwest of Wichita Falls TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 189...WW 190...WW 191...WW 192...WW 193... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 23030. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0195 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0195 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0193 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 193 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE LOZ TO 45 E JKL. ..SPC..04/30/25 ATTN...WFO...LMK...JKL...RLX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 193 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC119-133-195-300340- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KNOTT LETCHER PIKE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 0612 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 190... FOR PARTS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 0612 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0842 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Areas affected...Parts of the Texas South Plains Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 190... Valid 300142Z - 300345Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 190 continues. SUMMARY...The severe risk has become increasingly isolated across the Texas South Plains in WW190. However, severe potential should once again increase into the overnight hours (03-06Z time frame). DISCUSSION...In the wake of earlier severe storms across the TX South Plains, the severe risk has become increasingly isolated -- with a couple small/discrete storms capable of producing severe hail in the near-term. As a result, current thinking is that WW190 will be allowed to expire across this region at 02Z. However, as a 40-50 kt low-level jet develops and impinges on a stationary boundary draped across the area tonight, another round of thunderstorms is expected in the 03-06Z time frame. Steep deep-layer lapse rates (sampled by the MAF 00Z sounding) and 50-60 kt of effective shear will support clusters of severe storms (some potentially elevated) capable of severe hail and damaging winds. Convective and environmental trends will be monitored for the need for an additional watch. ..Weinman/Guyer.. 04/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 31960237 32660215 33620168 34070123 34210072 34090015 33710000 32620010 31440049 31120076 31040121 31130192 31370229 31960237 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 0613 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 194... FOR PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS ALONG THE RED RIVER
Mesoscale Discussion 0613 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0909 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Areas affected...Parts of south-central Oklahoma and north-central Texas along the Red River Concerning...Tornado Watch 194... Valid 300209Z - 300345Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 194 continues. SUMMARY...The risk of embedded tornadoes and severe wind gusts continues across Tornado Watch 194. DISCUSSION...An MCS with embedded supercell structures has evolved over parts of south-central Oklahoma and north-central Texas, which is tracking east-northeastward at 40-50 kt. This activity is tracking along an east/west-oriented stationary boundary, with middle/upper 60s dewpoints along/south of the boundary. The rich boundary-layer moisture, focused convergence along the boundary, and strengthening low-level jet will continue to favor the maintenance of this MCS with eastward extent. Around 40 kt of deep-layer shear oriented perpendicular to the gust front (sampled by VWP) and enhanced SRH along/north of the boundary will support embedded supercell structures and mesovorticies capable of producing severe wind gusts and tornadoes. Along the southern flank of the MCS, semi-discrete storms will pose a risk of large hail and a couple tornadoes as well. ..Weinman.. 04/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT... LAT...LON 33879848 34579840 34819811 34899760 34859683 34639664 34089658 33259696 33009742 32879815 32869899 32989923 33279919 33879848 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

WW 0193 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 193 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WSW LOZ TO 15 NNE LOZ TO 30 S HTS. ..SPC..04/30/25 ATTN...WFO...LMK...JKL...RLX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 193 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC013-025-051-071-095-109-115-119-121-125-131-133-147-153-159- 189-193-195-199-231-235-300240- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELL BREATHITT CLAY FLOYD HARLAN JACKSON JOHNSON KNOTT KNOX LAUREL LESLIE LETCHER MCCREARY MAGOFFIN MARTIN OWSLEY PERRY PIKE PULASKI WAYNE WHITLEY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 193 SEVERE TSTM KY 292225Z - 300500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 193 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 525 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of South-central and Eastern Kentucky * Effective this Tuesday afternoon from 525 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Clusters of storms will progress eastward across the region this evening with isolated wind damage as the main severe risk. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles northwest of Bowling Green KY to 40 miles south of Huntington WV. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 189...WW 190...WW 191...WW 192... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26025. ...Guyer Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF WEST/NORTHWEST TX INTO SOUTHERN OK... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Multiple clusters of severe storms are expected this evening into overnight across parts of the Southern Plains. Large to very large hail, severe gusts, and a couple tornadoes are all possible. Clusters of storms with locally damaging wind also remain possible across parts of the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks... An intense storm cluster with embedded supercells has developed across western north TX this evening. Large to very large hail and at least localized significant wind gusts will be possible with this cluster as it moves across north TX and southern OK. The downstream environment is also becoming increasingly favorable to tornadoes in the vicinity of a remnant outflow boundary, with enlarging low-level hodographs, rich low-level moisture, and moderate to strong instability in place. The storm mode may remain rather complex with additional upscale growth possible, but any persistent embedded supercells will pose a tornado threat through the evening. Later tonight, this complex may move into parts of eastern OK and the Ozarks, with continued severe potential into the overnight hours. Renewed strong to severe storm development is expected later tonight in the southwest TX vicinity, aided by an approaching mid/upper-level trough and strengthening low-level jet. The environment will remain favorable for supercells, and an additional cluster may evolve and move east-northeastward toward north TX and southern OK overnight. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible with the late night storms, along with some tornado potential with any supercells that are able to remain surface-based near the effective cold front and outflow boundary. ...Ohio Valley into the Northeast... Much of the Ohio Valley into parts of the Northeast has stabilized in the wake of multiple severe-wind producing MCSs. However, pockets of locally moderate buoyancy from parts of KY/OH, and also into parts of northern NY. A few strong clusters and/or marginal supercells remain possible through the evening, with a threat of locally damaging wind, isolated hail, and possibly a tornado. ..Dean.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF WEST/NORTHWEST TX INTO SOUTHERN OK... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Multiple clusters of severe storms are expected this evening into overnight across parts of the Southern Plains. Large to very large hail, severe gusts, and a couple tornadoes are all possible. Clusters of storms with locally damaging wind also remain possible across parts of the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks... An intense storm cluster with embedded supercells has developed across western north TX this evening. Large to very large hail and at least localized significant wind gusts will be possible with this cluster as it moves across north TX and southern OK. The downstream environment is also becoming increasingly favorable to tornadoes in the vicinity of a remnant outflow boundary, with enlarging low-level hodographs, rich low-level moisture, and moderate to strong instability in place. The storm mode may remain rather complex with additional upscale growth possible, but any persistent embedded supercells will pose a tornado threat through the evening. Later tonight, this complex may move into parts of eastern OK and the Ozarks, with continued severe potential into the overnight hours. Renewed strong to severe storm development is expected later tonight in the southwest TX vicinity, aided by an approaching mid/upper-level trough and strengthening low-level jet. The environment will remain favorable for supercells, and an additional cluster may evolve and move east-northeastward toward north TX and southern OK overnight. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible with the late night storms, along with some tornado potential with any supercells that are able to remain surface-based near the effective cold front and outflow boundary. ...Ohio Valley into the Northeast... Much of the Ohio Valley into parts of the Northeast has stabilized in the wake of multiple severe-wind producing MCSs. However, pockets of locally moderate buoyancy from parts of KY/OH, and also into parts of northern NY. A few strong clusters and/or marginal supercells remain possible through the evening, with a threat of locally damaging wind, isolated hail, and possibly a tornado. ..Dean.. 04/30/2025 Read more

WW 0194 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 194 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WEINMAN..04/30/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 194 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC019-033-049-067-069-085-095-099-123-137-300140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER COTTON GARVIN JEFFERSON JOHNSTON LOVE MARSHALL MURRAY PONTOTOC STEPHENS TXC009-023-077-097-151-181-207-237-253-275-337-417-447-485-487- 497-503-300140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR CLAY COOKE FISHER GRAYSON HASKELL JACK JONES KNOX MONTAGUE SHACKELFORD THROCKMORTON WICHITA WILBARGER WISE YOUNG THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 0190 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 190 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WEINMAN..04/30/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...MAF...LUB...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 190 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC015-017-027-031-051-055-057-065-075-087-109-141-149-300140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CADDO CANADIAN CLEVELAND COMANCHE GRADY GREER HARMON JACKSON KIOWA MCCLAIN OKLAHOMA TILLMAN WASHITA TXC033-075-081-101-103-105-107-115-125-135-153-155-169-173-191- 197-227-263-269-303-305-317-329-335-345-353-371-383-415-431-433- 441-443-461-300140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BORDEN CHILDRESS COKE COTTLE CRANE CROCKETT CROSBY DAWSON DICKENS ECTOR FLOYD FOARD GARZA GLASSCOCK HALL HARDEMAN HOWARD KENT KING LUBBOCK LYNN Read more