WW 0199 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 199 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE ELD TO 15 SSE FLP. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0625 ..WEINMAN..04/30/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 199 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-011-013-023-025-041-043-045-053-063-067-069-079-085-095- 117-119-137-145-147-010040- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS BRADLEY CALHOUN CLEBURNE CLEVELAND DESHA DREW FAULKNER GRANT INDEPENDENCE JACKSON JEFFERSON LINCOLN LONOKE MONROE PRAIRIE PULASKI STONE WHITE WOODRUFF THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 199 TORNADO AR 302025Z - 010300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 199 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 325 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central Arkansas * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 325 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A line of strong/severe thunderstorms over western Arkansas will progress eastward through the late afternoon and evening. Locally damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes will be possible with this activity. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles northeast of Russellville AR to 40 miles west southwest of Monticello AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 197...WW 198... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...Hart Read more

WW 0200 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0200 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 200 TORNADO IL IN MO 302140Z - 010300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 200 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 440 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern and Central Illinois Central and Southern Indiana East-Central Missouri * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 440 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop and intensify late this afternoon into the evening in the vicinity of a west to east oriented boundary. A few supercells are expected and a couple of tornadoes are possible. Severe gusts and large hail are also possible. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles west of Saint Louis MO to 25 miles east of Bloomington IN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 197...WW 198...WW 199... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 22020. ...Smith Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z An upper-level short wave currently sliding southeastward along the California coast will pivot into the Desert Southwest under a large, amplified ridge that will encompass much of the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday. This subtle trough along with residual moisture stretched along a diffuse frontal boundary should bring some isolated convection to the higher terrain of the Four Corners region. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible given marginal mid-level moisture and weak forcing. Fuels/fuel dryness will be limiting factor in ignition efficiency, particularly north of I-40 corridor, where additional light precipitation is expected Thursday (Day 2) prior to this event. Conversely, a sweeping cold front will bring widespread precipitation to much of the eastern U.S. mitigating fire weather concerns including the Mid-Atlantic region, reaching Florida by Day 5/Sunday. A deepening upper-level trough is expected to move into the Western U.S. in the Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday time frame. A mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the focus of the next appreciable fire weather threat impacting the Southwest. Additional mid-level Pacific moisture streaming into the region could bring a more widespread rain and higher elevation snow event to the higher terrain across the Four Corners/Intermountain West which could confine fire weather concerns to southern Arizona/New Mexico for early next week. Ensemble cluster analysis indicates development of a cut off low over the Southwest that should promote a cooler, more moist pattern for the region for Day 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday, limiting confidence in including Critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 04/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0621 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EAST-CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 0621 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Areas affected...East-central Missouri into southern Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 301940Z - 302145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A few storms are possible along an outflow boundary. All severe hazards would be possible. A watch is uncertain in the short term, but issuance is possible this afternoon depending on observational trends. DISCUSSION...Airmass modification after earlier convection has been evident over the past couple of hours in central Missouri and southern Illinois. The primary outflow boundary is situated just south of St. Louis and extends into far southern Illinois and southern Indiana. Dewpoints south of the boundary have increased to upper 60s F except for parts of southeastern Missouri which has only recovered into the low 60s F. North of the outflow boundary, stable billow clouds remain. However, very near the boundary temperatures and dewpoints have increased and at least some MLCIN has been removed and convection has begun to slowly deepen. With 40 kts of effective shear (more favorably oriented across the boundary on its western half), supercells would be expected if storms develop. Large hail and damaging winds would be possible. A tornado or two would also be possible for storms interacting with the more backed easterly/southeasterly winds on the cooler side of the boundary. Being in the wake of an earlier MCV, forcing for ascent will be nebulous and will depend on heating/destabilization along the outflow. Trends will continue to be monitored. A watch is possible this afternoon. ..Wendt/Hart.. 04/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX... LAT...LON 38359140 38649151 39179104 39229055 38878972 38828868 38808815 38618795 38168806 37928814 37538862 37558986 38359140 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 0622 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 197... FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0622 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Areas affected...western and central Arkansas Concerning...Tornado Watch 197... Valid 301953Z - 302200Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 197 continues. SUMMARY...A line of strong to severe storms will continue eastward the next several hours. Damaging gusts and a tornado or two remain possible. A downstream watch will likely be needed. DISCUSSION...The line of convection across western AR will continue to shift east at around 35 kt the next few hours. downstream, filtered heating has allowed temperatures to warm into the low/mid 80s amid low/mid 60s F dewpoints. Midlevel lapse rates remain modest, but the moist environment is fostering modest instability amid a moderately sheared environment. Given stronger heating ahead of the line, low-level lapse rates have steepened considerable, and this may foster a continued risk for damaging gusts into early evening. A new watch downstream from Tornado Watch 197 will likely be needed in the next hour. ..Leitman.. 04/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA... LAT...LON 35659348 35719254 35479186 35119155 34569157 33499197 33099222 33039257 33019310 33109398 33459431 34149466 35329435 35659348 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 0623 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 0623 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Areas affected...Eastern Kentucky Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 302007Z - 302200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated damaging winds and potentially marginally severe hail may occur with the strongest storms. A watch is not likely this afternoon. DISCUSSION...A very moist airmass (mid/upper 60s F dewpoints) is in place in the Upper Ohio Valley vicinity. On the southern fringe of a belt of stronger mid-level flow, effective shear is a modest 25-30 kts. Around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE will promote a few stronger to marginally severe storms. Low-level lapse rates are steep and damaging winds are the primary threat. Mid-level lapse rates (sampled by this mornings soundings) are modest. Small to perhaps isolated, marginally severe hail may occur with the strongest storms. ..Wendt/Hart.. 04/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...LMK... LAT...LON 37518517 38178451 38358349 38128257 37748218 37448242 36718337 36558413 36898486 37518517 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0198 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 198 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW ACT TO 30 NNE CRS TO 30 NW TYR. ..LEITMAN..04/30/25 ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 198 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC027-302140- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLUMBIA LAC013-015-017-027-031-081-085-119-302140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO CLAIBORNE DE SOTO RED RIVER SABINE WEBSTER TXC001-005-027-041-051-073-145-161-185-213-225-289-293-309-313- 331-347-349-365-395-401-403-405-419-455-471-477-302140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON ANGELINA BELL Read more

WW 198 TORNADO AR LA TX 301805Z - 010100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 198 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 105 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southwest Arkansas Northwest Louisiana East Central Texas * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 105 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to rapidly develop across the watch area through the afternoon. Sufficient vertical shear and instability will pose a risk for a few tornadoes, along with large hail and damaging wind gusts. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles south southwest of Waco TX to 50 miles east of Shreveport LA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 197... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23030. ...Hart Read more

WW 0199 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0199 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 199 TORNADO AR 302025Z - 010300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 199 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 325 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central Arkansas * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 325 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A line of strong/severe thunderstorms over western Arkansas will progress eastward through the late afternoon and evening. Locally damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes will be possible with this activity. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles northeast of Russellville AR to 40 miles west southwest of Monticello AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 197...WW 198... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...Hart Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible into this evening from the southern Plains into the Lower Ohio Valley, with the greatest risk expected across the ArkLaTex region. Damaging winds, hail and a few tornadoes are likely. ...20z Update... The primary change for the outlook is to clear severe probabilities behind the line across OK and north TX. The well developed MCS will continue to progress eastward into AR and the MS Valley through tonight. While forward speed have been somewhat slow, a substantial cold pool (as evidenced by a wake low over central OK) should continue to accelerate and pose a risk for damaging winds and a few embedded tornadoes over the Ozarks and MS Valley into this evening. Across central TX, numerous warm advection storms have developed and should continue to intensify this afternoon. Backed flow along the outflow immediately ahead of the MCS and a broad confluence zone will contribute to favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. However, the stronger southward advance of the cold pool will limit storm residence time in the favorable shear zone. Some undercutting may favor continued upscale growth of the line with time. A few supercells are also likely to organize with damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes possible. Farther west, isolated convection ongoing beneath the cold core upper trough should continue to slowly intensify. With cold mid-level temperatures (-15 to -18C at 500 mb) some risk for hail and damaging gusts remains across west TX and eastern NM. Across the Appalachians and Tidewater Region of VA/NC, isolated thunderstorms are ongoing and likely to continue through this afternoon and ahead of a slowly moving cold front. Vertical shear and buoyancy are rather weak, suggesting storm organization will be minimal. While an isolated damaging gust or small hail cannot be ruled out, the coverage of organized severe storms appears to be below 5%. Have removed the MRGL risk from VA/NC and shifted probabilities into eastern KY where vertical shear is slightly more robust. ..Lyons.. 04/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025/ ...Northeast TX/Southeast OK/Northwest LA... A large, organized MCS is tracking eastward across southeast OK and northeast TX. The leading edge of the MCS is moving into a very moist environment with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s, beneath moderately steep mid-level lapse rates. Backed surface winds and a convectively-enhanced corridor of southerly winds in the 1-3km layer (shown in FWD VAD and CAM solutions) are contributing to favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. QLCS spinups along the line will be possible through the day. Forecast soundings suggest a rather weak cap atop a nearly saturated boundary-layer. This would also suggest concern for discrete convective initiation ahead of the line over northeast TX, with tornado risk as well. Locally damaging wind gusts will also be a concern through the afternoon and early evening across the region. ...Southern IL/IN... A surface warm front is lifting northward across southern IL/IN today, with clearing skies and increasing insolation across the area. Most morning model solutions show scattered thunderstorm development near the front, track northeastward toward central IN by evening. Forecast soundings suggest a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...West TX into southwest OK... Visible satellite imagery shows decreasing low clouds and increasing destabilization across parts of west TX. This area will likely see widely scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates, sufficient CAPE, and favorable deep-layer shear will promote a risk of large hail in the stronger cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible into this evening from the southern Plains into the Lower Ohio Valley, with the greatest risk expected across the ArkLaTex region. Damaging winds, hail and a few tornadoes are likely. ...20z Update... The primary change for the outlook is to clear severe probabilities behind the line across OK and north TX. The well developed MCS will continue to progress eastward into AR and the MS Valley through tonight. While forward speed have been somewhat slow, a substantial cold pool (as evidenced by a wake low over central OK) should continue to accelerate and pose a risk for damaging winds and a few embedded tornadoes over the Ozarks and MS Valley into this evening. Across central TX, numerous warm advection storms have developed and should continue to intensify this afternoon. Backed flow along the outflow immediately ahead of the MCS and a broad confluence zone will contribute to favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. However, the stronger southward advance of the cold pool will limit storm residence time in the favorable shear zone. Some undercutting may favor continued upscale growth of the line with time. A few supercells are also likely to organize with damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes possible. Farther west, isolated convection ongoing beneath the cold core upper trough should continue to slowly intensify. With cold mid-level temperatures (-15 to -18C at 500 mb) some risk for hail and damaging gusts remains across west TX and eastern NM. Across the Appalachians and Tidewater Region of VA/NC, isolated thunderstorms are ongoing and likely to continue through this afternoon and ahead of a slowly moving cold front. Vertical shear and buoyancy are rather weak, suggesting storm organization will be minimal. While an isolated damaging gust or small hail cannot be ruled out, the coverage of organized severe storms appears to be below 5%. Have removed the MRGL risk from VA/NC and shifted probabilities into eastern KY where vertical shear is slightly more robust. ..Lyons.. 04/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025/ ...Northeast TX/Southeast OK/Northwest LA... A large, organized MCS is tracking eastward across southeast OK and northeast TX. The leading edge of the MCS is moving into a very moist environment with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s, beneath moderately steep mid-level lapse rates. Backed surface winds and a convectively-enhanced corridor of southerly winds in the 1-3km layer (shown in FWD VAD and CAM solutions) are contributing to favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. QLCS spinups along the line will be possible through the day. Forecast soundings suggest a rather weak cap atop a nearly saturated boundary-layer. This would also suggest concern for discrete convective initiation ahead of the line over northeast TX, with tornado risk as well. Locally damaging wind gusts will also be a concern through the afternoon and early evening across the region. ...Southern IL/IN... A surface warm front is lifting northward across southern IL/IN today, with clearing skies and increasing insolation across the area. Most morning model solutions show scattered thunderstorm development near the front, track northeastward toward central IN by evening. Forecast soundings suggest a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...West TX into southwest OK... Visible satellite imagery shows decreasing low clouds and increasing destabilization across parts of west TX. This area will likely see widely scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates, sufficient CAPE, and favorable deep-layer shear will promote a risk of large hail in the stronger cells. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes were made to the previous forecast, with no significant areas of fire weather concern expected. See previous outlook discussion below. ..Williams.. 04/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... The primary synoptic-scale midlevel troughing and related enhanced flow aloft will generally be confined to the eastern half of the CONUS on Thursday. This large-scale pattern will limit the overlap of dry and windy conditions across the CONUS -- mitigating fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes were made to the previous forecast, with no significant areas of fire weather concern expected. See previous outlook discussion below. ..Williams.. 04/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... The primary synoptic-scale midlevel troughing and related enhanced flow aloft will generally be confined to the eastern half of the CONUS on Thursday. This large-scale pattern will limit the overlap of dry and windy conditions across the CONUS -- mitigating fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWESTWARD TO TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected from the Northeast, across the Ohio, Tennessee, and Lower Mississippi Valleys and into Texas. Isolated storms within this zone will likely become capable of producing damaging wind gusts and hail. ...Synopsis... An upper trough initially over the north-central U.S. is forecast to dig/expand southeastward, evolving into a sharp/short-wavelength feature extending from the Great Lakes to the southern Plains by the end of the period. Meanwhile, as a second/sharp trough approaches the West Coast late, the overall pattern over the U.S. will become highly amplified and progressive into the weekend. At the surface, a cold front extending initially from the Great Lakes to Texas will advance steadily eastward. By early Saturday morning, the boundary should extend from New England southwestward to the Lower Mississippi/western Gulf Coast region. ...Lower Great Lakes to the southern Plains... Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing across portions of the central and eastern U.S., near and ahead of the aforementioned cold front. The ongoing clouds and precipitation will likely hinder heating/destabilization across parts of the region -- particularly from the Kentucky area northeastward. This, combined with modest shear suggests only isolated stronger storms, but risk appears sufficient to introduce marginal risk ahead of the front, as far north as the Lower Great Lakes. From roughly the Tennessee Valley westward into Texas, a more unstable airmass is expected to evolve, given more substantial low-level moisture, and potentially greater heating. However, widespread convection may be ongoing across the Arkansas area westward to the Texas Panhandle/South Plains region near and just north of the surface front. Evolution of this convection, and progression of associated outflows into the warm sector, will likely influence location, and organization, of subsequent storms through the day Friday. Thus, will maintain/expand MRGL risk across a broader area extending into the Tennessee Valley, with further refinement of the area likely in later outlooks. ..Goss.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWESTWARD TO TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected from the Northeast, across the Ohio, Tennessee, and Lower Mississippi Valleys and into Texas. Isolated storms within this zone will likely become capable of producing damaging wind gusts and hail. ...Synopsis... An upper trough initially over the north-central U.S. is forecast to dig/expand southeastward, evolving into a sharp/short-wavelength feature extending from the Great Lakes to the southern Plains by the end of the period. Meanwhile, as a second/sharp trough approaches the West Coast late, the overall pattern over the U.S. will become highly amplified and progressive into the weekend. At the surface, a cold front extending initially from the Great Lakes to Texas will advance steadily eastward. By early Saturday morning, the boundary should extend from New England southwestward to the Lower Mississippi/western Gulf Coast region. ...Lower Great Lakes to the southern Plains... Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing across portions of the central and eastern U.S., near and ahead of the aforementioned cold front. The ongoing clouds and precipitation will likely hinder heating/destabilization across parts of the region -- particularly from the Kentucky area northeastward. This, combined with modest shear suggests only isolated stronger storms, but risk appears sufficient to introduce marginal risk ahead of the front, as far north as the Lower Great Lakes. From roughly the Tennessee Valley westward into Texas, a more unstable airmass is expected to evolve, given more substantial low-level moisture, and potentially greater heating. However, widespread convection may be ongoing across the Arkansas area westward to the Texas Panhandle/South Plains region near and just north of the surface front. Evolution of this convection, and progression of associated outflows into the warm sector, will likely influence location, and organization, of subsequent storms through the day Friday. Thus, will maintain/expand MRGL risk across a broader area extending into the Tennessee Valley, with further refinement of the area likely in later outlooks. ..Goss.. 04/30/2025 Read more

MD 0619 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN TX INTO NORTHWEST LA
Mesoscale Discussion 0619 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Areas affected...portions of central and eastern TX into northwest LA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 301717Z - 301915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm potential is increasing across portions of central and eastern Texas early this afternoon. Convective initiation expected in the next 1-2 hours with all severe hazards possible. DISCUSSION...Deepening cumulus is noted across the discussion area to the southeast of a slowly southeastward progressing line/MCS across North TX. Scattered cloudiness has allowed for stronger heating, with temperatures in the upper 70s/low 80s F at midday. A very moist airmass with dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s F resides beneath a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates, resulting in MLCAPE increasing to around 1500-2500 J/kg. This should support robust updrafts. Supercell vertical wind profiles and effective shear values greater than 35 kt will support organized convection capable of all severe hazards, including a few tornadoes (a couple of which could be strong), damaging gusts, and isolated hail. Supercells are expected ahead of the oozing line of convection through the afternoon. With time, linear convection may also intensify and surge east. A tornado watch will likely be needed within the next hour or so for parts of the discussion area. ..Leitman/Hart.. 04/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... LAT...LON 31769817 32139747 32329582 33009362 32869316 32529311 32089339 31609404 30949523 30519611 30599725 30709781 30919825 31239836 31769817 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0197 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 197 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE DAL TO 50 E DAL TO 10 S PRX TO 35 WNW DEQ TO 25 NW RKR TO 15 N MKO. ..LEITMAN..04/30/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 197 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC019-033-051-057-059-061-073-081-083-091-097-099-109-113-127- 131-133-149-301940- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK CRAWFORD GARLAND HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING HOWARD LAFAYETTE LITTLE RIVER LOGAN MILLER MONTGOMERY NEVADA PIKE POLK SCOTT SEBASTIAN SEVIER YELL OKC079-089-135-301940- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LE FLORE MCCURTAIN SEQUOYAH TXC037-063-067-159-183-203-223-257-315-343-379-387-423-449-459- 467-499-301940- Read more