MD 0643 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH TO TN VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 0643 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0828 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Areas affected...parts of the Mid-South to TN Valley Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 021328Z - 021500Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed to address severe-thunderstorm development eastward from the Mid-South. DISCUSSION...Multiple, probable severe thunderstorms have recently developed around the greater Memphis vicinity of the Mid-South. While slightly elevated at this time, downstream insolation should yield a transition to mainly surface-based storms in the next couple hours. Overnight CAM signals appear too slow on timing, evolution to broader multicell clustering with transient supercells seems probable into midday. 12Z Nashville observed sounding and recent Memphis VWP data sampled minimal MLCIN along with moderate westerly speed shear. This should support large hail as the primary near-term threat, along with increasing damaging wind potential later this morning. ..Grams/Hart.. 05/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG... LAT...LON 36078982 36368903 36838802 36978650 36968549 36618535 36058550 35118684 34578780 34158856 34138943 34248997 34589045 35199019 36078982 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri May 2 13:47:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong thunderstorm development is expected from parts of central and eastern Texas to the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and into the Cumberland Plateau by evening. This includes potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Southern Plains to Lower Mississippi Valley/Tennessee Valley... A residual MCS, with diminished intensity since early on the overnight, persists at daybreak along the Red River and Texas/Oklahoma border region eastward into the Mid-South largely paralleling I-40, with a probable related MCV across eastern Oklahoma. A relatively isolated severe potential will initially exist with these storms this morning. However, an intensification of related/downstream storms is expected by midday, potentially spanning parts of Arkansas into western/Middle Tennessee, western Kentucky, and northern Alabama. Additional severe storm development will be possible this afternoon northeastward into the middle Ohio Valley and toward the Cumberland Plateau, as increasing low-level/deep-layer southwesterly winds overlie a moderately unstable boundary layer. Multiple organizing storm clusters can be expected regionally this afternoon into evening. Farther southwest across central/eastern Texas, while considerable drying and stabilization is still apparent in observational data after last evening's MCS, the air mass should steadily recover with moistening and relatively aggressive destabilization into peak heating. Initial thunderstorm development will be accompanied by the potential for large hail, with supercells capable of very large hail possible especially with west-southwestward extent into the Edwards Plateau and toward the Rio Grande. Damaging wind potential will also increase as convection organizes and spreads southeastward into this evening across central/southeast Texas, and possibly Deep South Texas tonight. ..Guyer/Jewell.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong thunderstorm development is expected from parts of central and eastern Texas to the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and into the Cumberland Plateau by evening. This includes potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Southern Plains to Lower Mississippi Valley/Tennessee Valley... A residual MCS, with diminished intensity since early on the overnight, persists at daybreak along the Red River and Texas/Oklahoma border region eastward into the Mid-South largely paralleling I-40, with a probable related MCV across eastern Oklahoma. A relatively isolated severe potential will initially exist with these storms this morning. However, an intensification of related/downstream storms is expected by midday, potentially spanning parts of Arkansas into western/Middle Tennessee, western Kentucky, and northern Alabama. Additional severe storm development will be possible this afternoon northeastward into the middle Ohio Valley and toward the Cumberland Plateau, as increasing low-level/deep-layer southwesterly winds overlie a moderately unstable boundary layer. Multiple organizing storm clusters can be expected regionally this afternoon into evening. Farther southwest across central/eastern Texas, while considerable drying and stabilization is still apparent in observational data after last evening's MCS, the air mass should steadily recover with moistening and relatively aggressive destabilization into peak heating. Initial thunderstorm development will be accompanied by the potential for large hail, with supercells capable of very large hail possible especially with west-southwestward extent into the Edwards Plateau and toward the Rio Grande. Damaging wind potential will also increase as convection organizes and spreads southeastward into this evening across central/southeast Texas, and possibly Deep South Texas tonight. ..Guyer/Jewell.. 05/02/2025 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri May 2 09:44:06 UTC 2025.

WW 0208 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 208 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW SPS TO 15 E SPS TO 40 E SPS TO 25 WNW ADM TO 30 SE OKC TO 20 E OKC TO 15 SSW CQB TO 20 ENE CQB. ..JEWELL..05/02/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 208 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-013-019-023-027-029-049-061-063-067-069-077-079-081-085- 087-091-095-099-107-111-121-123-125-127-133-021040- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BRYAN CARTER CHOCTAW CLEVELAND COAL GARVIN HASKELL HUGHES JEFFERSON JOHNSTON LATIMER LE FLORE LINCOLN LOVE MCCLAIN MCINTOSH MARSHALL MURRAY OKFUSKEE OKMULGEE PITTSBURG PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE PUSHMATAHA SEMINOLE TXC077-097-147-181-277-337-021040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY COOKE FANNIN GRAYSON LAMAR MONTAGUE Read more

WW 208 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 020355Z - 021200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 208 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1055 PM CDT Thu May 1 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western, Central, and Eastern Oklahoma North Texas * Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 1055 PM until 700 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A broken band of thunderstorms will likely continue east into the Watch tonight. Scattered storm development near a frontal zone is forecast, in addition to upscale growth into an eastward moving squall line. Large to very large hail will be possible with the stronger cells. Severe gusts are possible with the more intense portions of the squall line. A threat for a brief tornado cannot be ruled out mainly across south-central Oklahoma into eastern Oklahoma late tonight. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles west northwest of Altus OK to 65 miles east of Mcalester OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 205...WW 207... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Smith Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Monday - Southern High Plains... Lee cyclogenesis will strengthen on Monday in the southern High Plains as a mid-level trough advects eastward. As this occurs, rich low-level moisture will advect into West Texas which will result in strong instability as temperatures continue to cool aloft. Expect scattered thunderstorm development along the dryline during the afternoon/evening. However, more widespread storm development is likely after 00Z as the low-level jet strengthens across West Texas. Initial supercells will have a threat for all severe weather hazards before eventual upscale growth into a MCS likely results in a greater severe wind threat. ...Day 5/Tuesday - Central/East Texas into Louisiana... Day 4 thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period along a frontal zone across central/East Texas and persist eastward through the day. Destabilization remains questionable as strong high pressure and the low-latitude nature of the mid-level trough may limit northward movement of the warm front. The potential for this front to be stationary, in addition to widespread convection/cloud cover concerns along the front, preclude severe weather probabilities at this time. However, there will likely be a corridor along the frontal zone with some greater severe weather threat which may become more clear as the event draws closer. Additional severe storms will be possible Day 6 and 7 along the frontal zone/composite outflow in Texas, but the location of this feature and degree of destabilization along it will be highly dependent on prior days convective activity. For these reasons, no probabilities have been added at this time. Read more

MD 0642 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 208... FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...FAR NORTHERN TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0642 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Areas affected...much of southern and central Oklahoma...far northern Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 208... Valid 020703Z - 020900Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 208 continues. SUMMARY...The threat of severe gusts and hail remains over the entire watch area, with brief tornadoes, sporadic very large hail, and perhaps locally significant gusts over southern Oklahoma and along the Red River Valley. DISCUSSION...Storms have rapidly increased in coverage across much of western through southern OK, as the influence of the upper trough and cooling aloft overspread the moist and unstable air mass. The greatest threat area should continue to be over southern parts of the watch, in proximity to the stationary front. Here, both moisture, instability and convergence are maximized. Very large storms have evolved out of this developing cluster, with new cells just east of the primary supercell. Given the strong instability, low-level shear may be sufficient to support periodic mesocyclones and brief tornadoes. The primary risk will more likely be damaging wind and hail, both of which could be locally significant. For northern areas, the storms associated with the cold pool surge out of the west may continue to produce at least near-severe gusts. Although the low-level jet is not strong this evening, a very slow northward push of elevated moisture, coupled with steep lapse rates aloft, could conceivably aid some strengthening over time. ..Jewell.. 05/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 33829828 33899865 33999885 34189891 34409871 34569771 34589721 34669616 34499590 34159578 33819605 33659635 33739762 33829828 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe storms are possible across southeast Georgia, eastern South Carolina, and southeast North Carolina. ...Discussion... A mid-level low will become cut-off in the Ohio Valley vicinity on Sunday. This will result in only slow eastward advancement of the front along the East Coast. Weak to potentially moderate instability is expected to develop from southeast Georgia into eastern South Carolina and perhaps far southeast North Carolina. Storms are possible along the front and/or the sea breeze with perhaps a greater threat if these boundaries collide. Mid-level flow should be sufficiently strong for some storm organization including potential for a supercell or two. Any severe threat will be mostly diurnal and wane by late evening. Warm mid-level temperatures should keep storms mostly suppressed across Florida. A mid-level low will advance east across the Southwest on Sunday with some troughing anticipated across the southern High Plains. Strengthening southeasterly flow across Texas will advect Gulf moisture west into the Trans Pecos. A supercell is possible in the vicinity of the Davis Mountains Sunday afternoon/evening, but it is unclear whether sufficient destabilization will occur to support this threat. Therefore, no marginal risk has been added at this time. ..Bentley.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe storms are possible across southeast Georgia, eastern South Carolina, and southeast North Carolina. ...Discussion... A mid-level low will become cut-off in the Ohio Valley vicinity on Sunday. This will result in only slow eastward advancement of the front along the East Coast. Weak to potentially moderate instability is expected to develop from southeast Georgia into eastern South Carolina and perhaps far southeast North Carolina. Storms are possible along the front and/or the sea breeze with perhaps a greater threat if these boundaries collide. Mid-level flow should be sufficiently strong for some storm organization including potential for a supercell or two. Any severe threat will be mostly diurnal and wane by late evening. Warm mid-level temperatures should keep storms mostly suppressed across Florida. A mid-level low will advance east across the Southwest on Sunday with some troughing anticipated across the southern High Plains. Strengthening southeasterly flow across Texas will advect Gulf moisture west into the Trans Pecos. A supercell is possible in the vicinity of the Davis Mountains Sunday afternoon/evening, but it is unclear whether sufficient destabilization will occur to support this threat. Therefore, no marginal risk has been added at this time. ..Bentley.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue to be focused across the Southwest as isolated to scattered thunderstorms develop through late Saturday afternoon. Upper ridging is expected to spread across the High Plains through the day as an upper wave begins to approach the West Coast. Southerly low/mid-level flow ahead of the upper wave will help maintain a modestly moist air mass (characterized by 0.4 to 0.6 inch PWAT values) across the Southwest into the Great Basin. Increasing broad scale ascent, coupled with antecedent steep mid-level lapse rates, will promote isolated thunderstorms from central NM to central NV by late afternoon. Limited moisture throughout the column combined with deep boundary layers will act to limit precipitation amounts and support dry lightning strikes. While this potential is noted across a broad swath of the region, the fire weather threat will be greatest across eastern AZ into NM where fuel conditions are currently the driest per recent fuel and drought guidance. ..Moore.. 05/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue to be focused across the Southwest as isolated to scattered thunderstorms develop through late Saturday afternoon. Upper ridging is expected to spread across the High Plains through the day as an upper wave begins to approach the West Coast. Southerly low/mid-level flow ahead of the upper wave will help maintain a modestly moist air mass (characterized by 0.4 to 0.6 inch PWAT values) across the Southwest into the Great Basin. Increasing broad scale ascent, coupled with antecedent steep mid-level lapse rates, will promote isolated thunderstorms from central NM to central NV by late afternoon. Limited moisture throughout the column combined with deep boundary layers will act to limit precipitation amounts and support dry lightning strikes. While this potential is noted across a broad swath of the region, the fire weather threat will be greatest across eastern AZ into NM where fuel conditions are currently the driest per recent fuel and drought guidance. ..Moore.. 05/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0208 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 208 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE CDS TO 15 WSW LTS TO 10 NNE LTS TO 20 SE CSM TO 30 NE CSM TO 30 S AVK. ..JEWELL..05/02/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 208 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-011-013-015-017-019-023-027-029-031-033-039-049-051-061- 063-065-067-069-073-075-077-079-081-083-085-087-091-095-099-107- 109-111-121-123-125-127-133-137-141-149-020740- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BLAINE BRYAN CADDO CANADIAN CARTER CHOCTAW CLEVELAND COAL COMANCHE COTTON CUSTER GARVIN GRADY HASKELL HUGHES JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSTON KINGFISHER KIOWA LATIMER LE FLORE LINCOLN LOGAN LOVE MCCLAIN MCINTOSH MARSHALL MURRAY OKFUSKEE OKLAHOMA OKMULGEE PITTSBURG PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE PUSHMATAHA SEMINOLE STEPHENS TILLMAN WASHITA TXC077-097-147-181-197-277-337-485-487-020740- Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain confined to the Southwest for today, and will mainly manifest as a dry-thunderstorm risk across parts of far eastern Arizona into central New Mexico. Early-morning water vapor imagery shows a weak upper low over the southern CA coast. This feature is expected to drift east over the next 24 hours, reaching AZ/NM by peak heating this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and modest mid-level moisture were sampled by the FGZ and ABQ 00z soundings, which should be adequate for weak convection this afternoon as ascent overspreads the region. Deep, well-mixed boundary layers between 2-3 km deep, coupled with PWAT values of 0.6 inches or less, should promote relatively dry thunderstorms from central AZ to central NM. Latest fuel and drought guidance shows sufficiently dry conditions across eastern AZ into NM to support fire ignitions from dry lightning strikes. South of the dry thunderstorm risk area, 10-15 mph southerly winds coupled with RH values in the teens will promote pockets of elevated fire weather conditions. ..Moore.. 05/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain confined to the Southwest for today, and will mainly manifest as a dry-thunderstorm risk across parts of far eastern Arizona into central New Mexico. Early-morning water vapor imagery shows a weak upper low over the southern CA coast. This feature is expected to drift east over the next 24 hours, reaching AZ/NM by peak heating this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and modest mid-level moisture were sampled by the FGZ and ABQ 00z soundings, which should be adequate for weak convection this afternoon as ascent overspreads the region. Deep, well-mixed boundary layers between 2-3 km deep, coupled with PWAT values of 0.6 inches or less, should promote relatively dry thunderstorms from central AZ to central NM. Latest fuel and drought guidance shows sufficiently dry conditions across eastern AZ into NM to support fire ignitions from dry lightning strikes. South of the dry thunderstorm risk area, 10-15 mph southerly winds coupled with RH values in the teens will promote pockets of elevated fire weather conditions. ..Moore.. 05/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the Southeast to southern New England and across deep South Texas. ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will become closed across the Midwest on Saturday with an associated surface low traversing along the Ohio River. A cold front will extend southwest from this surface low to South Texas Saturday morning with the cold front crossing the Appalachians by Saturday evening. ...Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast... A broad warm sector featuring low to mid 60s dewpoints will be in place ahead of the aforementioned cold front on Saturday morning. Convection will likely be ongoing along this front at the beginning of the period. This convection and associated cloud cover will likely inhibit destabilization ahead of the front with only weak instability forecast. Flow will be sufficient for some clusters or organized bowing segments, but the limited instability will probably limit a greater threat. Less cloudcover and greater destabilization is likely east of the Appalachians which could lead to a locally greater severe weather threat. Forecast soundings show around 35 to 45 knots of deep layer shear which could result in some organized storms. However, this threat should be short-lived as inhibition increases substantially after sunset. ...Deep South Texas... The majority of guidance shows the cold front/composite outflow in the Gulf/northern Mexico by 12Z Saturday, but some guidance (Hires NAM and somewhat the NSSL-WRF) shows a less progressive/slower southward movement of the boundary. Therefore, while a marginal severe weather risk appears less likely across Deep South Texas on Day 2/Saturday, the threat will be maintained for now since some guidance indicates the threat could exist and only slight timing differences from other guidance could result in some threat early on Day 2. ..Bentley.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the Southeast to southern New England and across deep South Texas. ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will become closed across the Midwest on Saturday with an associated surface low traversing along the Ohio River. A cold front will extend southwest from this surface low to South Texas Saturday morning with the cold front crossing the Appalachians by Saturday evening. ...Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast... A broad warm sector featuring low to mid 60s dewpoints will be in place ahead of the aforementioned cold front on Saturday morning. Convection will likely be ongoing along this front at the beginning of the period. This convection and associated cloud cover will likely inhibit destabilization ahead of the front with only weak instability forecast. Flow will be sufficient for some clusters or organized bowing segments, but the limited instability will probably limit a greater threat. Less cloudcover and greater destabilization is likely east of the Appalachians which could lead to a locally greater severe weather threat. Forecast soundings show around 35 to 45 knots of deep layer shear which could result in some organized storms. However, this threat should be short-lived as inhibition increases substantially after sunset. ...Deep South Texas... The majority of guidance shows the cold front/composite outflow in the Gulf/northern Mexico by 12Z Saturday, but some guidance (Hires NAM and somewhat the NSSL-WRF) shows a less progressive/slower southward movement of the boundary. Therefore, while a marginal severe weather risk appears less likely across Deep South Texas on Day 2/Saturday, the threat will be maintained for now since some guidance indicates the threat could exist and only slight timing differences from other guidance could result in some threat early on Day 2. ..Bentley.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN KY...MIDDLE AND ERN TN...NWRN GA...NRN AL...NRN AND CNTRL MS...SERN AR...NRN AND CNTRL LA...CNTRL AND ERN TX... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong thunderstorm development, potentially including several organizing clusters, appears likely in a corridor across parts of central and eastern Texas, through the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, into the Cumberland Plateau by this evening. These may be accompanied by a risk for large hail, initially, before widespread strong to severe gusts becomes more common. ...Discussion... Although a mid/upper high may be attempting to form east of the Cascades, within large-scale riding shifting inland of the Pacific coast, models suggest that this will be short-lived. And it appears that the ridging will slowly continue eastward across the Intermountain West and Rockies through this period, as one upstream short wave trough pivots northward across British Columbia, and another digs toward the northern Pacific coast. Downstream, a significant short wave trough, currently digging to the lee of the northern Rockies, is forecast to continue across the central Great Plains through lower Missouri Valley and Ozark Plateau vicinity by 12Z Saturday. It still appears that the trough over the Great Plains will be preceded by a convectively augmented short wave perturbation, just now beginning to evolve across the Texas Panhandle into Red River vicinity, and forecast to accelerate north-northeastward through the Ohio Valley later today and tonight. Trailing this feature, a front, probably reinforced by considerable outflow from overnight convection, is forecast to advance south/southeast of the Red River and Ozark Plateau vicinity by 12Z this morning. Ahead of this front, models indicate that a seasonably moist boundary layer will become characterized by sizable CAPE, with insolation beneath initially steep mid-level lapse rates, across much of central and southern Texas through the lower Mississippi Valley. By late afternoon, low-level moisture advection may contribute to similar destabilization in a corridor across the Tennessee Valley into the western slopes of the Appalachians. ...Southern Great Plains into western slopes of Appalachians... While it is possible that one more prominent surface frontal wave may eventually form across parts of the Mid South into lower Ohio Valley late today into tonight, it appears that this may remain relatively weak, and the surface front may tend to advance south of the stronger mid-level westerlies. However, models indicate that the environment within the developing instability axis will become at least modestly sheared, as broadly difluent mid/upper flow downstream of the digging trough supports increasing and intensifying thunderstorm development by midday. This may include re-intensification of overnight storms across the Mid South into Ohio Valley, and the initiation of additional storms southwestward across central Texas. There is a considerable signal in model output that convection will become widespread, with potential for the evolution of at least a couple of notable organizing storm clusters. Initial thunderstorm development may be accompanied by the risk for large hail, particularly across central Texas, but perhaps also across and northeast of the lower Mississippi Valley. Thereafter, precipitation loading, evaporative cooling and melting may contribute to strong downbursts, before convectively generated surface cold pools consolidate and strengthen, accompanied by increasingly widespread strong to severe gusts as convection spreads eastward and southeastward into this evening. ..Kerr/Moore.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN KY...MIDDLE AND ERN TN...NWRN GA...NRN AL...NRN AND CNTRL MS...SERN AR...NRN AND CNTRL LA...CNTRL AND ERN TX... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong thunderstorm development, potentially including several organizing clusters, appears likely in a corridor across parts of central and eastern Texas, through the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, into the Cumberland Plateau by this evening. These may be accompanied by a risk for large hail, initially, before widespread strong to severe gusts becomes more common. ...Discussion... Although a mid/upper high may be attempting to form east of the Cascades, within large-scale riding shifting inland of the Pacific coast, models suggest that this will be short-lived. And it appears that the ridging will slowly continue eastward across the Intermountain West and Rockies through this period, as one upstream short wave trough pivots northward across British Columbia, and another digs toward the northern Pacific coast. Downstream, a significant short wave trough, currently digging to the lee of the northern Rockies, is forecast to continue across the central Great Plains through lower Missouri Valley and Ozark Plateau vicinity by 12Z Saturday. It still appears that the trough over the Great Plains will be preceded by a convectively augmented short wave perturbation, just now beginning to evolve across the Texas Panhandle into Red River vicinity, and forecast to accelerate north-northeastward through the Ohio Valley later today and tonight. Trailing this feature, a front, probably reinforced by considerable outflow from overnight convection, is forecast to advance south/southeast of the Red River and Ozark Plateau vicinity by 12Z this morning. Ahead of this front, models indicate that a seasonably moist boundary layer will become characterized by sizable CAPE, with insolation beneath initially steep mid-level lapse rates, across much of central and southern Texas through the lower Mississippi Valley. By late afternoon, low-level moisture advection may contribute to similar destabilization in a corridor across the Tennessee Valley into the western slopes of the Appalachians. ...Southern Great Plains into western slopes of Appalachians... While it is possible that one more prominent surface frontal wave may eventually form across parts of the Mid South into lower Ohio Valley late today into tonight, it appears that this may remain relatively weak, and the surface front may tend to advance south of the stronger mid-level westerlies. However, models indicate that the environment within the developing instability axis will become at least modestly sheared, as broadly difluent mid/upper flow downstream of the digging trough supports increasing and intensifying thunderstorm development by midday. This may include re-intensification of overnight storms across the Mid South into Ohio Valley, and the initiation of additional storms southwestward across central Texas. There is a considerable signal in model output that convection will become widespread, with potential for the evolution of at least a couple of notable organizing storm clusters. Initial thunderstorm development may be accompanied by the risk for large hail, particularly across central Texas, but perhaps also across and northeast of the lower Mississippi Valley. Thereafter, precipitation loading, evaporative cooling and melting may contribute to strong downbursts, before convectively generated surface cold pools consolidate and strengthen, accompanied by increasingly widespread strong to severe gusts as convection spreads eastward and southeastward into this evening. ..Kerr/Moore.. 05/02/2025 Read more