SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA EAST COAST INTO SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible along the Florida east coast into the North Carolina/Virginia Piedmont and southern Pennsylvania. Additional severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern New Mexico. ...Coastal GA to southern PA... A mid/upper cyclone will remain centered over the OH/TN Valley vicinity on Sunday. This will maintain a belt of enhanced mid/upper flow across portions of the Southeast and central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic vicinity. Meanwhile, at the surface a cold front will stall from roughly northern VA into southeast GA and the FL Panhandle. Ahead of the surface boundary, 60s F dewpoints will be in place as far north as the Delmarva. Morning showers and clouds across the region may limit stronger heating and destabilization, but continued moist advection beneath modest midlevel lapse rates will support corridors of MLCAPE around 500-750 J/kg. Vertical shear will remain modest, around 25 kt effective shear magnitudes, but sufficient for at least transient organized updrafts. Stronger cells may produce locally damaging gusts or marginal hail. ...FL... While large-scale ascent will remain nebulous across the region, low to mid-60s F dewpoints and strong heating will support weak to moderate diurnal destabilization. Forecast guidance suggests a well-defined sea breeze will develop along the FL east coast. Low-level convergence along this boundary within the moderately unstable airmass should support isolated to scattered cellular/multicell convection during the afternoon. While vertical shear will remain modest (around 25 kt effective shear), vertically veering profiles and steep low-level lapse rates suggest locally strong gusts and perhaps a tornado could occur along the sea breeze boundary. ...Eastern NM... An upper cyclone will develop eastward across the Southwest on Sunday. A belt of enhanced mid/upper southerly flow will overspread the southern Rockies/adjacent High Plains during the afternoon/evening. Near the surface, southeasterly upslope flow is forecast. While boundary moisture will remain meager (dewpoints generally in the 40s F), cool temperatures aloft (around -15 C at 500 mb) will result in steep midlevel lapse rates, supporting weak instability. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the central mountains of NM and spread into the adjacent High Plains with time from late afternoon into the evening hours. Isolated large hail and strong gusts will be possible with these storms. ..Leitman.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA EAST COAST INTO SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible along the Florida east coast into the North Carolina/Virginia Piedmont and southern Pennsylvania. Additional severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern New Mexico. ...Coastal GA to southern PA... A mid/upper cyclone will remain centered over the OH/TN Valley vicinity on Sunday. This will maintain a belt of enhanced mid/upper flow across portions of the Southeast and central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic vicinity. Meanwhile, at the surface a cold front will stall from roughly northern VA into southeast GA and the FL Panhandle. Ahead of the surface boundary, 60s F dewpoints will be in place as far north as the Delmarva. Morning showers and clouds across the region may limit stronger heating and destabilization, but continued moist advection beneath modest midlevel lapse rates will support corridors of MLCAPE around 500-750 J/kg. Vertical shear will remain modest, around 25 kt effective shear magnitudes, but sufficient for at least transient organized updrafts. Stronger cells may produce locally damaging gusts or marginal hail. ...FL... While large-scale ascent will remain nebulous across the region, low to mid-60s F dewpoints and strong heating will support weak to moderate diurnal destabilization. Forecast guidance suggests a well-defined sea breeze will develop along the FL east coast. Low-level convergence along this boundary within the moderately unstable airmass should support isolated to scattered cellular/multicell convection during the afternoon. While vertical shear will remain modest (around 25 kt effective shear), vertically veering profiles and steep low-level lapse rates suggest locally strong gusts and perhaps a tornado could occur along the sea breeze boundary. ...Eastern NM... An upper cyclone will develop eastward across the Southwest on Sunday. A belt of enhanced mid/upper southerly flow will overspread the southern Rockies/adjacent High Plains during the afternoon/evening. Near the surface, southeasterly upslope flow is forecast. While boundary moisture will remain meager (dewpoints generally in the 40s F), cool temperatures aloft (around -15 C at 500 mb) will result in steep midlevel lapse rates, supporting weak instability. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the central mountains of NM and spread into the adjacent High Plains with time from late afternoon into the evening hours. Isolated large hail and strong gusts will be possible with these storms. ..Leitman.. 05/02/2025 Read more

WW 0213 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 213 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0649. ..GRAMS..05/02/25 ATTN...WFO...LMK...ILN...JKL...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 213 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC019-025-043-061-115-123-155-022040- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK CRAWFORD FLOYD HARRISON OHIO PERRY SWITZERLAND KYC005-011-013-015-017-021-023-025-027-029-037-041-045-049-051- 063-065-067-069-073-077-079-081-085-091-093-095-097-103-109-111- 113-117-121-123-125-129-131-135-137-147-151-153-155-161-163-165- 167-173-175-179-181-183-185-187-189-191-193-197-199-201-203-205- 209-211-215-223-229-231-235-237-239-022040- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON BATH BELL BOONE BOURBON BOYLE BRACKEN BREATHITT BRECKINRIDGE BULLITT CAMPBELL CARROLL CASEY CLARK CLAY Read more

WW 0210 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 210 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE LUK TO 40 SSE FDY TO 25 W CAK TO 35 NE CLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0652. ..GRAMS..05/02/25 ATTN...WFO...CLE...PBZ...ILN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 210 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC007-013-019-021-023-027-029-031-041-047-049-055-057-059-067- 075-081-083-085-089-097-099-101-111-117-119-121-133-151-153-155- 157-159-165-169-022040- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHTABULA BELMONT CARROLL CHAMPAIGN CLARK CLINTON COLUMBIANA COSHOCTON DELAWARE FAYETTE FRANKLIN GEAUGA GREENE GUERNSEY HARRISON HOLMES JEFFERSON KNOX LAKE LICKING MADISON MAHONING MARION MONROE MORROW MUSKINGUM NOBLE PORTAGE STARK SUMMIT TRUMBULL TUSCARAWAS UNION WARREN WAYNE PAC007-019-031-039-049-053-073-085-121-022040- Read more

WW 0209 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 209 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE GLH TO 20 N TUP TO 40 WSW HOP. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0649. ..GRAMS..05/02/25 ATTN...WFO...HUN...MEG...LMK...PAH...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 209 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC033-059-077-079-083-022040- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLBERT FRANKLIN LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LIMESTONE KYC001-003-009-031-047-053-057-061-087-099-141-169-171-177-207- 213-217-219-221-227-022040- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ALLEN BARREN BUTLER CHRISTIAN CLINTON CUMBERLAND EDMONSON GREEN HART LOGAN METCALFE MONROE MUHLENBERG RUSSELL SIMPSON TAYLOR TODD TRIGG WARREN Read more

WW 209 SEVERE TSTM AL AR KY MS TN 021500Z - 022200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 209 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwest Alabama East Central Arkansas Southern Kentucky Northern Mississippi Western and Middle Tennessee * Effective this Friday morning and afternoon from 1000 AM until 500 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Multiple lines and clusters of thunderstorms will track across the watch area through the afternoon. A very moist and unstable air mass will promote a risk of damaging winds and large hail in the stronger storms. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles southwest of Memphis TN to 75 miles east southeast of Bowling Green KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...Hart Read more

WW 0214 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0214 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0211 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 211 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..05/02/25 ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 211 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC003-017-021940- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLEY CHICOT LAC003-009-011-013-015-017-021-025-027-029-031-035-039-041-043- 049-059-061-065-067-069-073-079-081-083-085-107-111-115-119-123- 127-021940- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN AVOYELLES BEAUREGARD BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO CALDWELL CATAHOULA CLAIBORNE CONCORDIA DE SOTO EAST CARROLL EVANGELINE FRANKLIN GRANT JACKSON LA SALLE LINCOLN MADISON MOREHOUSE NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA RAPIDES RED RIVER RICHLAND SABINE TENSAS UNION VERNON WEBSTER WEST CARROLL WINN Read more

WW 0212 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 212 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..05/02/25 ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 212 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC001-015-021-027-029-031-035-041-051-053-055-089-091-099-123- 139-145-149-157-161-171-177-185-187-193-201-209-213-217-225-251- 255-259-281-285-287-289-291-293-299-309-313-331-333-339-349-373- 395-407-453-455-471-473-477-491-493-021940- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON AUSTIN BASTROP BELL BEXAR BLANCO BOSQUE BRAZOS BURLESON BURNET CALDWELL COLORADO COMAL CORYELL DEWITT ELLIS FALLS FAYETTE FORT BEND FREESTONE GILLESPIE GONZALES GRIMES GUADALUPE HAMILTON HARRIS HAYS HENDERSON HILL HOUSTON JOHNSON KARNES KENDALL LAMPASAS LAVACA LEE LEON LIBERTY LIMESTONE LLANO MCLENNAN MADISON MILAM MILLS MONTGOMERY NAVARRO POLK ROBERTSON SAN JACINTO TRAVIS TRINITY WALKER WALLER WASHINGTON Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the Southeast to southern New England and across deep South Texas. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt mid/upper trough from the Great Lakes to East Texas will shift east over the MS Valley as an upper cyclone develops over IL/MO by early afternoon. The upper cyclone should progress eastward over the Lower OH/TN Valley vicinity by the end of the period. Ahead of this system, a broad swath of modest southwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of the Eastern Seaboard. At the surface, weak cyclogenesis is forecast over the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, a cold front will move across the Northeast, the central Appalachians, and much of the Southeast through Sunday morning. Further west, an upper trough will develop inland across the West. A belt of enhanced southerly mid/upper flow is expected to overspread portions of the Great Basin and the northern Rockies as this occurs. At the surface, a cold front will move eastward across the northern Great Basin. ...Southeast to Northeast U.S.... Southerly low-level flow will transport modest boundary layer moisture northward ahead of the aforementioned cold front and surface low. Dewpoints will generally range from the upper 60s to low 60s F, though a corridor of mid-60s F dewpoints may occur from the Southeast into the central Appalachians. Convection will likely be ongoing across portions of MS/AL into the Lower OH Valley Saturday morning. Some of this activity across the Southeast could pose a risk for strong gusts. Additional convection is expected to develop during the afternoon ahead of the advancing cold front within a modestly destabilizing airmass (MLCAPE to around 1000 J/kg). Overall, vertical shear profiles are forecast to remain modest, with less than 25-30 kt effective shear magnitudes. However, closer to the surface low and within a zone of potentially stronger differential heating from the central Appalachians to southeast PA, 25-35 kt effective shear may support better organized/stronger updrafts. Isolated severe gusts and hail to 1.5 inches could occur with these cells within an area of steepened low-level lapse rates and moderate shear. An upgrade to Slight (level 2 of 5) has been included with this outlook update. The severe risk across the broader region will be tempered by modest shear/instability, though isolated strong gusts or hail may occur with any stronger cells. Additionally, with eastward extent into the Piedmont and Mid-Atlantic coastal areas, inhibition will increase during the evening as storms move into these areas, further limiting severe potential. ...NV into OR/ID... Scattered thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon amid increasing large-scale ascent and steepening mid and low-level lapse rates. Cool temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates greater than 7-7.5 C/km, fostering up to 500 J/kg MLCAPE. Midlevel flow around 30-45 kt atop steep low-level lapse rates and a well-mixed boundary layer suggest some stronger outflow winds will be possible with the convection and a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been included. ...South TX... Strong storms may be ongoing at the beginning of the period as the southwest extent of the aforementioned cold front overlies far South TX. Strong gusts could occur with this activity for a few hours in the morning before the boundary pushes south. ..Leitman.. 05/02/2025 Read more

MD 0645 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR OH INTO WESTERN PA
Mesoscale Discussion 0645 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1043 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Areas affected...OH into western PA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 021543Z - 021745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...A generally isolated severe hail and damaging wind threat should develop this afternoon. Severe thunderstorm watch issuance is possible. DISCUSSION...Initial thunderstorm development is underway across parts of west-central OH along a weak cold front that is progged to move east through the afternoon. Additional storm formation is expected along the front northward to Lake Erie. With only scattered clouds ahead of the front, further boundary-layer heating will support modest MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg later this afternoon. Moderate west-southwesterly speed shear will favor multicell clusters with a sporadic severe hail and damaging wind threat. Low confidence exists for more substantial organization, rendering some uncertainty regarding the overall coverage of severe this afternoon. ..Grams/Hart.. 05/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN... LAT...LON 39618438 40308442 41278272 41858051 41897973 41687940 41047959 40787988 40088107 39468336 39618438 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 0646 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTH GA THROUGH THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0646 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Areas affected...north GA through the western Carolinas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 021603Z - 021800Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated damaging winds and small to marginally severe hail will be possible through this afternoon. While a severe thunderstorm watch issuance is not anticipated, we'll be monitoring for greater severe-storm coverage/organization. DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorm development appears to be underway across north GA into far western SC, with more isolated development into western NC. The air mass across GA is moderately unstable with weaker buoyancy northeastward. Deep-layer shear is lacking though with decidedly veered and weak lower-level winds per FFC/GSP VWP data. This is expected to remain largely steady-state through the afternoon. Adequate mid-level westerlies should exist for some small to marginally severe hail cores. This would enhance microburst potential and attendant threat for localized wind damage. ..Grams/Hart.. 05/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC... LAT...LON 34988433 35248276 36338129 36698033 36487926 35508015 34628106 33778212 33568325 33578402 33648459 34018465 34988433 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 0647 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR CENTRAL INTO EASTERN TEXAS AND FAR WESTERN LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0647 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Areas affected...central into eastern Texas and far western Louisiana Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 021605Z - 021800Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat should increase into the afternoon hours as storms develop and become more widespread. The stronger storms may produce severe hail/wind gusts, and a couple of tornadoes cannot be ruled out. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will eventually be needed over the next few hours. DISCUSSION...A convective outflow boundary from earlier storms continues to slowly drift southward across central TX into LA, with clearing and insolation contributing to continued boundary-layer destabilization on both sides of the boundary. While strong storms may develop from re-intensifying convection across northern TX, the most likely location for the development of robust severe storms will be along the outflow boundary, as well as with convection that has already initiated in the warm sector across southeast TX. 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates are overspreading a moist boundary layer, characterized by 70+ F surface dewpoints, contributing to 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE. As the mid-level trough over the Plains states undergoes amplification this afternoon, and is overspread by 80+ kts of 300 mb westerly flow from an approaching sub-tropical jet stream, deep-layer shear should increase, supporting well over 40 kts of effective bulk shear. When considering the strong instability in place, several supercells should develop, accompanied by a severe wind and hail threat. Multiple instances of 2+ inch diameter hail are possible given the expected increase of strong mid to upper-level shear, and a couple of tornadoes cannot be ruled out, especially with any dominant supercell structures interacting with mesoscale boundaries. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be needed in the next few hours to address the impending severe threat. ..Squitieri/Hart.. 05/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 29620146 31049884 32129670 32819462 32859403 32579359 32329347 31499349 30679358 30079390 29669431 29509474 29169621 28769789 28639937 28620012 28690048 28870068 29110088 29300115 29620146 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

MD 0648 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 209... FOR PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH
Mesoscale Discussion 0648 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Areas affected...parts of the TN Valley and Mid-South Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 209... Valid 021629Z - 021800Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 209 continues. SUMMARY...Multiple swaths of damaging winds and severe hail are expected through the afternoon. A corridor of greater severe wind and brief tornado potential is apparent across northern Mississippi into far southwest Tennessee. DISCUSSION...Multicell clusters along with an emerging linear segment are ongoing from the Mid-South across the TN Valley. Primary large hail threat is with the leading convection and developing cells to its south. Primary damaging wind threat will likely evolve in two regimes. In the near-term, across northern MS into far southwest TN where a north/south-oriented line segment progresses across the trailing outflow from the leading convection. This may also support potential for a tornado or two with enhanced low-level SRH along the outflow. Downstream in northern AL through middle TN and southern KY, damaging wind coverage should increase into late afternoon as greater amalgamation of convection occurs. ..Grams.. 05/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN... LAT...LON 36518766 37298752 37528666 37508604 37218579 36098586 34688620 33928709 33808873 33828988 33879028 34569040 35229017 35318900 35558825 36078790 36518766 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0210 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 210 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..05/02/25 ATTN...WFO...CLE...PBZ...ILN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 210 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC005-007-019-021-023-027-029-031-033-035-041-047-049-055-057- 065-075-077-083-085-089-091-093-097-099-101-103-109-113-117-133- 139-147-151-153-155-157-159-165-169-175-021840- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLAND ASHTABULA CARROLL CHAMPAIGN CLARK CLINTON COLUMBIANA COSHOCTON CRAWFORD CUYAHOGA DELAWARE FAYETTE FRANKLIN GEAUGA GREENE HARDIN HOLMES HURON KNOX LAKE LICKING LOGAN LORAIN MADISON MAHONING MARION MEDINA MIAMI MONTGOMERY MORROW PORTAGE RICHLAND SENECA STARK SUMMIT TRUMBULL TUSCARAWAS UNION WARREN WAYNE WYANDOT PAC007-019-031-039-049-053-073-085-121-021840- PA Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z Adjustments were made to the dry thunderstorm risk across portions of central New Mexico to reduce the spatial extent across central/east-central New Mexico. Though moisture is limited, it appears that storm motions and coverage will be sufficient for wetting rainfall across this area. HREF guidance suggests a broad swath of 0.25-0.50" of rain is possible. ..Thornton.. 05/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain confined to the Southwest for today, and will mainly manifest as a dry-thunderstorm risk across parts of far eastern Arizona into central New Mexico. Early-morning water vapor imagery shows a weak upper low over the southern CA coast. This feature is expected to drift east over the next 24 hours, reaching AZ/NM by peak heating this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and modest mid-level moisture were sampled by the FGZ and ABQ 00z soundings, which should be adequate for weak convection this afternoon as ascent overspreads the region. Deep, well-mixed boundary layers between 2-3 km deep, coupled with PWAT values of 0.6 inches or less, should promote relatively dry thunderstorms from central AZ to central NM. Latest fuel and drought guidance shows sufficiently dry conditions across eastern AZ into NM to support fire ignitions from dry lightning strikes. South of the dry thunderstorm risk area, 10-15 mph southerly winds coupled with RH values in the teens will promote pockets of elevated fire weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z Adjustments were made to the dry thunderstorm risk across portions of central New Mexico to reduce the spatial extent across central/east-central New Mexico. Though moisture is limited, it appears that storm motions and coverage will be sufficient for wetting rainfall across this area. HREF guidance suggests a broad swath of 0.25-0.50" of rain is possible. ..Thornton.. 05/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain confined to the Southwest for today, and will mainly manifest as a dry-thunderstorm risk across parts of far eastern Arizona into central New Mexico. Early-morning water vapor imagery shows a weak upper low over the southern CA coast. This feature is expected to drift east over the next 24 hours, reaching AZ/NM by peak heating this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and modest mid-level moisture were sampled by the FGZ and ABQ 00z soundings, which should be adequate for weak convection this afternoon as ascent overspreads the region. Deep, well-mixed boundary layers between 2-3 km deep, coupled with PWAT values of 0.6 inches or less, should promote relatively dry thunderstorms from central AZ to central NM. Latest fuel and drought guidance shows sufficiently dry conditions across eastern AZ into NM to support fire ignitions from dry lightning strikes. South of the dry thunderstorm risk area, 10-15 mph southerly winds coupled with RH values in the teens will promote pockets of elevated fire weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0209 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 209 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE GLH TO 10 SSE JBR. ..LYONS..05/02/25 ATTN...WFO...HUN...MEG...LMK...PAH...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 209 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC033-059-077-079-083-021740- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLBERT FRANKLIN LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LIMESTONE ARC035-021740- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRITTENDEN KYC001-003-009-031-033-035-047-053-057-061-083-087-099-141-143- 157-169-171-177-207-213-217-219-221-227-021740- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ALLEN BARREN BUTLER CALDWELL CALLOWAY Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong/severe thunderstorm development is expected from parts of central and eastern Texas to the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and into the Cumberland Plateau by evening. This includes potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...TN/OH Valleys... Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are affecting parts of AR/northern MS/west TN late this morning. These storms will progress northeastward into a very moist and unstable air mass, where strong heating and dewpoints near 70F will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg. Moderately strong westerly flow aloft will aid in convective organization, posing a risk of multicell storms and bowing line segments capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Southerly low-level wind are strong enough to pose a risk of a tornado or two, if one or more of the clusters can become better organized. Reference WW 209. ...OH/PA... Thunderstorms are beginning to develop across western OH along a weak cold front. This activity will increase in coverage through the afternoon, spreading northeastward across OH and into northwest PA. The strongest cells will be capable of damaging wind gusts and hail. Reference MCD #645. ...TX/LA... A convectively aided front is sagging southward across north TX this morning. The air mass along and ahead of the boundary is very moist and unstable, with forecast soundings showing steep mid-level lapse rates and at least pockets of very large CAPE (4000-5000 J/kg). Weak inhibition will lead to scattered thunderstorm development along the boundary by mid-afternoon. Low-level winds will be rather weak, but sufficient deep-layer shear will promote supercells capable of very large hail and damaging wind. Very strong anvil-level winds will aid in the large/giant hail potential. Reference MCD #646. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong/severe thunderstorm development is expected from parts of central and eastern Texas to the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and into the Cumberland Plateau by evening. This includes potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...TN/OH Valleys... Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are affecting parts of AR/northern MS/west TN late this morning. These storms will progress northeastward into a very moist and unstable air mass, where strong heating and dewpoints near 70F will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg. Moderately strong westerly flow aloft will aid in convective organization, posing a risk of multicell storms and bowing line segments capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Southerly low-level wind are strong enough to pose a risk of a tornado or two, if one or more of the clusters can become better organized. Reference WW 209. ...OH/PA... Thunderstorms are beginning to develop across western OH along a weak cold front. This activity will increase in coverage through the afternoon, spreading northeastward across OH and into northwest PA. The strongest cells will be capable of damaging wind gusts and hail. Reference MCD #645. ...TX/LA... A convectively aided front is sagging southward across north TX this morning. The air mass along and ahead of the boundary is very moist and unstable, with forecast soundings showing steep mid-level lapse rates and at least pockets of very large CAPE (4000-5000 J/kg). Weak inhibition will lead to scattered thunderstorm development along the boundary by mid-afternoon. Low-level winds will be rather weak, but sufficient deep-layer shear will promote supercells capable of very large hail and damaging wind. Very strong anvil-level winds will aid in the large/giant hail potential. Reference MCD #646. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 05/02/2025 Read more