MD 0633 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0633 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Areas affected...Edwards Plateau into central Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 011903Z - 012100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Large to very-large hail will be possible with widely scattered supercells this afternoon. A watch is possible for parts of the Edwards Plateau into central Texas. Timing and where the greatest concentration of storms will be remains uncertain. Trends will be monitored. DISCUSSION...A very moist airmass has spread northward into much of central and eastern Texas. Cumulus towers have been increasing along an outflow boundary in central Texas and along a moisture gradient/pseudo dryline within the Edwards Plateau as temperatures have warmed into the mid/upper 80s F. Mid-level ascent will be weak, but strong surface heating and minimal MLCIN should allow a few widely scattered supercells to develop. The most organized storms are more likely in central Texas where effective shear will be greater. Storm coverage will likely be higher near the outflow boundary as the moisture gradient is less convergent. Storms this afternoon will be capable of large to very-large hail and severe gusts. A watch is possible for portions of these regions. The uncertainty will be the timing and placement of possible watches. Trends will continue to be monitored. ..Wendt/Hart.. 05/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 30049901 29459947 29120022 29290072 29550091 29840078 30010058 31029904 31389834 31499815 31549796 31319746 31069672 30719638 30449662 30479704 30689754 30639829 30049901 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 204 SEVERE TSTM TX 011930Z - 020200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 204 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 230 PM CDT Thu May 1 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central Texas * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 230 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Isolated but intense thunderstorms are expected to form this afternoon in a very moist and unstable air mass. Slow-moving supercells capable of very large hail appear to be the main concern. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles north and south of a line from 115 miles west of Temple TX to 65 miles east southeast of Temple TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 203... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Hart Read more

WW 0203 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 203 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW LEX TO 40 ENE LUK TO 25 NNE CMH TO 30 NNW CLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0632. ..GRAMS..05/01/25 ATTN...WFO...LMK...JKL...RLX...ILN...CLE...PBZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 203 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC011-017-019-021-023-043-049-063-065-067-069-079-089-097-113- 129-135-151-155-161-165-167-173-175-181-197-201-205-209-237-239- 012040- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BATH BOURBON BOYD BOYLE BRACKEN CARTER CLARK ELLIOTT ESTILL FAYETTE FLEMING GARRARD GREENUP HARRISON JESSAMINE LEE LEWIS MADISON MARION MASON MENIFEE MERCER MONTGOMERY MORGAN NICHOLAS POWELL ROBERTSON ROWAN SCOTT WOLFE WOODFORD OHC001-005-007-009-013-015-019-029-031-035-045-053-055-059-067- 071-073-075-079-081-083-085-087-089-093-099-103-105-111-115-119- 121-127-129-131-133-139-141-145-151-153-155-157-163-167-169- Read more

WW 203 SEVERE TSTM KY OH PA WV LE 011720Z - 012300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 203 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 120 PM EDT Thu May 1 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Kentucky Central and Eastern Ohio Northwest Pennsylvania Northern Panhandle of West Virginia Lake Erie * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 120 PM until 700 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms over western Ohio will track eastward today into a warm and unstable air mass. The strongest storms along and ahead of the line will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles south of Lexington KY to 30 miles north northeast of Cleveland OH. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...Hart Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the Southeast to southern New England and across deep South Texas. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast... Somewhat of a blocking pattern will evolve over the CONUS by Saturday, with a closed low over the mid MS/lower OH Valleys, downstream from a ridge over the Plains, and another closed low near southern CA. Weak surface cyclogenesis is expected across the OH Valley downstream from the closed midlevel low, with a cold front trailing southwestward to south TX. A broad warm sector with boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s is expected from the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast, though substantial convection through Friday/D2 casts some uncertainty on the quality of buoyancy in the warm sector from the OH Valley into AL by Saturday. Assuming a few pockets of surface heating coincident with the band of stronger midlevel flow east-through-southeast of the midlevel low, there could be a few clusters/line segments capable of producing isolated wind damage. Stronger surface heating/destabilization is expected east of the Appalachians, but forcing for ascent will be weak and storm coverage is uncertain well east of the higher terrain during the afternoon, with storm development more probable from the Piedmont and Blue Ridge northeastward into eastern PA/southeastern NY. Isolated wind damage and some hail will be possible. There is potential for an eventual upgrade to SLGT risk for a portion of the MRGL area, pending more clarity regarding the influence of convection prior to D3. ...Deep South TX... A surface cold front, likely modified by convective outflow Friday night, is expected to move southward into South TX early Saturday. There is substantial uncertainty regarding the location of the effective front, which likewise casts doubt on the potential for additional storm development by Saturday afternoon. Will maintain the MRGL in this update, but it may need to be removed in subsequent updates. ..Thompson.. 05/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from central Texas to middle Tennessee and central Kentucky Friday afternoon into early Friday night. Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats. ...Synopsis... Downstream from a ridge over the Great Basin, a shortwave trough now amplifying over the northern High Plains will continue southeastward across KS/OK/MO/AR on Friday. A separate/lead shortwave trough will eject quickly northeastward from the Great Lakes to the Saint Lawrence Valley. The lead shortwave trough will be associated with a weak surface cyclone across southeast QC and a trailing cold front into the lower Great Lakes. Farther southwest, the surface pattern will likely be modulated by the effects of overnight convection from D1 that will likely be ongoing at the start of the period from north TX and southern/eastern OK into western AR. ...Central TX to middle TN... Differential heating and outflow from the early convection will reinforce a baroclinic zone during the day from north/central TX into central AR. Surface heating/destabilization in advance of the remnant morning convection should result in re-invigoration of the convection by early afternoon across parts of the Mid-South and TN Valley, where the storm environment will favor clusters/line segments capable of producing occasional wind damage and large hail. Strong surface heating will occur south of the morning convection in TX where afternoon MLCAPE will likely exceed 2000 J/kg. The eastern extension of an EML, effective bulk shear of 30-40 kt and stronger flow aloft will favor a mix of supercells and multicell clusters capable of producing large hail (2 to 3 inches in diameter with the more persistent supercells). There will also be some increase in the threat for wind damage as storms consolidate into one or more larger clusters and continue moving southeastward toward the TX coast and south central TX into Friday night. ...Southern Appalachians to eastern NY... The ejecting/lead shortwave trough will provide a glancing influence across NY during the afternoon, where a weakly unstable warm sector is expected. Though buoyancy will not be particularly large (MLCAPE generally less than 1000 J/kg), some enhancement to midlevel flow (up to 40 kt) and steepened low-level lapse rates in the afternoon could support isolated wind damage with cell/small clusters. Farther south, flow aloft will be weaker, though stronger surface heating/larger buoyancy will compensate. Storm coverage is expected to remain widely scattered (more probable closer to the higher terrain/Blue Ridge), but thermodynamic profiles will favor sufficiently strong downdrafts for isolated wind damage. ..Thompson.. 05/01/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Very dry conditions are expected across southern Arizona into West Texas. Downslope winds leeward of the Sacramento Mountains in southeast New Mexico could support brief period of a localized elevated fire weather threat this afternoon, but larger scale Elevated highlights are not expected across southern New Mexico. Otherwise, forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Williams.. 05/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1228 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... On the backside of a midlevel trough over the Midwest, surface high pressure will build over the western CONUS. This large-scale pattern will limit the overlap of dry/windy conditions over dry fuels across the CONUS -- mitigating fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu May 1 16:15:02 UTC 2025.

MD 0631 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR OH...WESTERN PA...EASTERN KY...NORTHERN WV
Mesoscale Discussion 0631 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Areas affected...OH...western PA...eastern KY...northern WV Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 011612Z - 011815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Lower-topped convection along a confluence axis should intensify through the afternoon, increasing the risk for scattered damaging winds and isolated, marginally severe hail. With moderate uncertainty on timing and spatial extent, a severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed, centered on the Upper Ohio Valley. DISCUSSION...Convection has gradually increased along a generally north/south-oriented confluence axis along the IN/OH border into central KY. 30-35 kt measured gusts have been observed thus far, with much of the line remaining low-topped. Modified 12Z ILN sounding along with short-term forecast soundings indicate the downstream airmass is supporting weak buoyancy as temperatures have warmed to 75-80 F. Further warming is expected to yield 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE in the next hour or two. These soundings along with regional VWP data suggest that much of the wind shear is concentrated in the low-levels with an ill-defined mid/upper hodograph amid a unidirectional southwesterly profile. This suggests that supercells should struggle to be maintained beyond weak/transient structures. Morning CAM guidance also offers a variety of potential outcomes this afternoon, but the more preferred guidance depicts scattered multicell clustering increasing across OH into eastern KY. Small to marginally severe hail cores should enhance downdraft potential for scattered damaging winds. ..Grams/Hart.. 05/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK... LAT...LON 39818418 40008411 40618385 40858310 41138217 41328095 41348052 41087992 40627967 40068000 39618046 39428119 38838244 37838377 37928519 39818418 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE TN AND OH VALLEYS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND FROM THE TX/OK PAHANDLES EASTWARD ACROSS OK AND NORTH AND CENTRAL TX.... ...SUMMARY... Lines and/or clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are likely to impact parts of the Ohio Valley into lower Great Lakes, parts of the lower Mississippi Valley, and the southern Great Plains this afternoon through tonight. ...OH Valley... Morning water vapor imagery shows a progressive and large shortwave trough moving across parts of MO/IL. Forcing ahead of this trough will lead to scattered thunderstorm development over eastern IN and central KY, with storms spreading northeastward through the afternoon and early evening. Forecast soundings show deep and moderately strong southwest flow aloft. This coupled with sufficient CAPE will pose a threat of organized lines/clusters of storms capable of damaging wind gusts. Activity is expected to spread into western NY/PA during the early evening before weakening. ...Central TX... A weak surface boundary extends from west-central LA westward into central TX this morning. Strong heating and ample moisture along/south of the boundary will yield max CAPE values over 4000 J/kg by late afternoon. Most 12z CAM solutions indicate at least isolated intense convection forming in this corridor. Those storms that form will pose a risk of very large hail and damaging winds. Other intense storms may form off the high terrain of northern Mexico and build into parts of central TX this evening. ...TX Panhandle into OK... A combination of strong heating and upslope low-level winds into the Raton mesa will aid in the development of a cluster of thunderstorms over southeast CO this afternoon. This activity will track southeastward into a progressively more moist/unstable air mass over the TX panhandle and western OK, where a few more intense storms are expected. Cells and bowing structures will pose a risk of large hail and damaging winds. By late tonight, other storms are expected to form ahead of this complex, affecting parts of central OK with a risk of large hail. ..Hart/Wendt.. 05/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE TN AND OH VALLEYS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND FROM THE TX/OK PAHANDLES EASTWARD ACROSS OK AND NORTH AND CENTRAL TX.... ...SUMMARY... Lines and/or clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are likely to impact parts of the Ohio Valley into lower Great Lakes, parts of the lower Mississippi Valley, and the southern Great Plains this afternoon through tonight. ...OH Valley... Morning water vapor imagery shows a progressive and large shortwave trough moving across parts of MO/IL. Forcing ahead of this trough will lead to scattered thunderstorm development over eastern IN and central KY, with storms spreading northeastward through the afternoon and early evening. Forecast soundings show deep and moderately strong southwest flow aloft. This coupled with sufficient CAPE will pose a threat of organized lines/clusters of storms capable of damaging wind gusts. Activity is expected to spread into western NY/PA during the early evening before weakening. ...Central TX... A weak surface boundary extends from west-central LA westward into central TX this morning. Strong heating and ample moisture along/south of the boundary will yield max CAPE values over 4000 J/kg by late afternoon. Most 12z CAM solutions indicate at least isolated intense convection forming in this corridor. Those storms that form will pose a risk of very large hail and damaging winds. Other intense storms may form off the high terrain of northern Mexico and build into parts of central TX this evening. ...TX Panhandle into OK... A combination of strong heating and upslope low-level winds into the Raton mesa will aid in the development of a cluster of thunderstorms over southeast CO this afternoon. This activity will track southeastward into a progressively more moist/unstable air mass over the TX panhandle and western OK, where a few more intense storms are expected. Cells and bowing structures will pose a risk of large hail and damaging winds. By late tonight, other storms are expected to form ahead of this complex, affecting parts of central OK with a risk of large hail. ..Hart/Wendt.. 05/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE TN AND OH VALLEYS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND FROM THE TX/OK PANHANDLES EASTWARD ACROSS OK AND NORTH TX.... ...SUMMARY... Lines and/or clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are likely to impact parts of the Ohio Valley into lower Great Lakes, parts of the lower Mississippi Valley, and the southern Great Plains this afternoon through tonight. ...Synopsis... Early morning satellite imagery shows several shortwave troughs across the CONUS, including one entering the Lower MO Valley/Ozarks vicinity, another moving into NE, and another off the southern CA coast. The lead wave is forecast to progress quickly northeastward through the OH Valley and Great Lakes while losing amplitude under the increasingly confluent flow aloft. At the same time, another shortwave trough will drop southeastward through the northern High Plains into the northern/central Plains, leading to some amplification of the upper troughing across the north-central CONUS. Recent surface analysis revealed several lows within a broad area of low pressure across the central CONUS, one over west-central IL, another near the SD/ND/MN border intersection, and a third over north-central OK. A warm front extends eastward from the low over west-central IL, while modest troughing extends between the Upper Midwest low and the one over north-central OK. The west-central IL low is expected to deepen throughout the day as it moves northeastward ahead of its parent shortwave, with the attendant warm front advancing northward as well. The northernmost surface low is expected to progress slowly eastward as well, with its associated surface troughing also drifting eastward. A more stationary pattern is anticipated in the vicinity of the OK low throughout much of the period. ...TN/OH Valleys into the Lower Great Lakes... Low 60s dewpoints are already in place across the Lower OH and TN Valley this morning. Continued northward/northeastward advection of this low-level moisture is anticipated today as the surface low progresses northeastward. This increased moisture coupled with modest heating will help support moderate buoyancy across much of the region by early afternoon. Broad large-scale ascent and surface troughing are expected over the region amid this destabilization, which is forecast to result in widespread thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. The convective mode will likely be dominated by linear structures, with one or more convective lines possible. Primary severe risk will be damaging gusts, supported by moderate southwesterly flow in the lower troposphere. Some hail is also possible, particularly during cell mergers. The tornado risk will be low but non-zero, as veered low-level flow limits the low-level shear. ...Lower MS Valley... The airmass across the region is expected to quickly destabilize as low-level moisture advects back into the region in the wake of the convection currently moving through. Upper 60s dewpoints coupled with modest heating will result in moderate to strong buoyancy and no convective inhibition by the early afternoon. Even modest low-level convergence should be enough to initiate deep convection, but any remnant outflow could also act as a focus for convective initiation. Robust updrafts are expected with initial development, with a quick trend towards outflow-dominant structures. Large hail and damaging gusts are the primary risks. ...TX/OK Panhandles into much of OK and north TX... Low-level moisture is expected to advect back northwestward into the TX Panhandle throughout the day. Cold mid-level temperatures are already in place (-16 deg C at 500 on the 12Z AMA sounding), so this added low-level moisture coupled with glancing ascent will likely result in late evening thunderstorm development. Most of the convection-allowing guidance is suggesting these storms will grow upscale quickly into an MCS, with some of guidance suggesting it could be quite and capable of producing significant wind gusts as it moves eastward across the TX Panhandle and into OK. Additionally, gradual increase in the low-level moisture beneath cold mid-level temperatures and associated steep mid-level lapse rates will result in strong buoyancy across southern OK. Modest warm-air advection could result in convective initiation across this region amid an environment that supports very large hail. Complex interaction is possible between the potential MCS and the more cellular development ahead of it, but some severe threat appears possible through early tomorrow morning. ..Mosier/Jewell.. 05/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE TN AND OH VALLEYS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND FROM THE TX/OK PANHANDLES EASTWARD ACROSS OK AND NORTH TX.... ...SUMMARY... Lines and/or clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are likely to impact parts of the Ohio Valley into lower Great Lakes, parts of the lower Mississippi Valley, and the southern Great Plains this afternoon through tonight. ...Synopsis... Early morning satellite imagery shows several shortwave troughs across the CONUS, including one entering the Lower MO Valley/Ozarks vicinity, another moving into NE, and another off the southern CA coast. The lead wave is forecast to progress quickly northeastward through the OH Valley and Great Lakes while losing amplitude under the increasingly confluent flow aloft. At the same time, another shortwave trough will drop southeastward through the northern High Plains into the northern/central Plains, leading to some amplification of the upper troughing across the north-central CONUS. Recent surface analysis revealed several lows within a broad area of low pressure across the central CONUS, one over west-central IL, another near the SD/ND/MN border intersection, and a third over north-central OK. A warm front extends eastward from the low over west-central IL, while modest troughing extends between the Upper Midwest low and the one over north-central OK. The west-central IL low is expected to deepen throughout the day as it moves northeastward ahead of its parent shortwave, with the attendant warm front advancing northward as well. The northernmost surface low is expected to progress slowly eastward as well, with its associated surface troughing also drifting eastward. A more stationary pattern is anticipated in the vicinity of the OK low throughout much of the period. ...TN/OH Valleys into the Lower Great Lakes... Low 60s dewpoints are already in place across the Lower OH and TN Valley this morning. Continued northward/northeastward advection of this low-level moisture is anticipated today as the surface low progresses northeastward. This increased moisture coupled with modest heating will help support moderate buoyancy across much of the region by early afternoon. Broad large-scale ascent and surface troughing are expected over the region amid this destabilization, which is forecast to result in widespread thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. The convective mode will likely be dominated by linear structures, with one or more convective lines possible. Primary severe risk will be damaging gusts, supported by moderate southwesterly flow in the lower troposphere. Some hail is also possible, particularly during cell mergers. The tornado risk will be low but non-zero, as veered low-level flow limits the low-level shear. ...Lower MS Valley... The airmass across the region is expected to quickly destabilize as low-level moisture advects back into the region in the wake of the convection currently moving through. Upper 60s dewpoints coupled with modest heating will result in moderate to strong buoyancy and no convective inhibition by the early afternoon. Even modest low-level convergence should be enough to initiate deep convection, but any remnant outflow could also act as a focus for convective initiation. Robust updrafts are expected with initial development, with a quick trend towards outflow-dominant structures. Large hail and damaging gusts are the primary risks. ...TX/OK Panhandles into much of OK and north TX... Low-level moisture is expected to advect back northwestward into the TX Panhandle throughout the day. Cold mid-level temperatures are already in place (-16 deg C at 500 on the 12Z AMA sounding), so this added low-level moisture coupled with glancing ascent will likely result in late evening thunderstorm development. Most of the convection-allowing guidance is suggesting these storms will grow upscale quickly into an MCS, with some of guidance suggesting it could be quite and capable of producing significant wind gusts as it moves eastward across the TX Panhandle and into OK. Additionally, gradual increase in the low-level moisture beneath cold mid-level temperatures and associated steep mid-level lapse rates will result in strong buoyancy across southern OK. Modest warm-air advection could result in convective initiation across this region amid an environment that supports very large hail. Complex interaction is possible between the potential MCS and the more cellular development ahead of it, but some severe threat appears possible through early tomorrow morning. ..Mosier/Jewell.. 05/01/2025 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu May 1 13:02:02 UTC 2025.

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... High pressure will dominate much of the eastern CONUS at the start of the extended period. This will shift most moisture into the Atlantic/Gulf of America. The only exception will be across Texas where east-southeasterly flow will advect richer low-level moisture into the southern High Plains. This will be the focus for any potential severe storms on Day 4/Sun and Day 5/Mon. However, specific during this period, and particularly beyond, are quite nebulous. The ECMWF cuts off an upper low across the Ohio Valley vicinity on Saturday Night while the GFS waits to cut off the upper-low across the Southeast US on Monday/Tuesday. Farther west there is more consistency in the upper pattern with a cutoff low in the Southwest vicinity. Enhanced southwesterly flow could result in several days of severe weather in the southern Plains. However, moisture remains uncertain due to aforementioned timing/location differences for the mid-level trough in the East. The GFS solution results in a more progressive cold front which clears out most of the greater moisture from the Gulf. However, the ECMWF stalls the front across the central Gulf which leaves a reservoir of rich theta-e which can be advected across Texas and vicinity during the early-mid part of next week. Therefore, predictability remains too low for probabilities at this time, but once the upper-level pattern becomes more clear, probabilities may be necessary. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... High pressure will dominate much of the eastern CONUS at the start of the extended period. This will shift most moisture into the Atlantic/Gulf of America. The only exception will be across Texas where east-southeasterly flow will advect richer low-level moisture into the southern High Plains. This will be the focus for any potential severe storms on Day 4/Sun and Day 5/Mon. However, specific during this period, and particularly beyond, are quite nebulous. The ECMWF cuts off an upper low across the Ohio Valley vicinity on Saturday Night while the GFS waits to cut off the upper-low across the Southeast US on Monday/Tuesday. Farther west there is more consistency in the upper pattern with a cutoff low in the Southwest vicinity. Enhanced southwesterly flow could result in several days of severe weather in the southern Plains. However, moisture remains uncertain due to aforementioned timing/location differences for the mid-level trough in the East. The GFS solution results in a more progressive cold front which clears out most of the greater moisture from the Gulf. However, the ECMWF stalls the front across the central Gulf which leaves a reservoir of rich theta-e which can be advected across Texas and vicinity during the early-mid part of next week. Therefore, predictability remains too low for probabilities at this time, but once the upper-level pattern becomes more clear, probabilities may be necessary. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR SOUTH TEXAS AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the Southeast to New England and across far South Texas. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will move from the Great Lakes to the Northeast on Saturday. At the surface a cold front will advance across the Appalachians and eventually off the Atlantic Coast and will also extend westward near the Gulf Coast, and into South Texas. High pressure will build into the Midwest in the wake of this cold front. ...East Coast... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of a cold front during the afternoon as some destabilization occurs east of the Appalachians. An expansive area of upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints will be present east of the Appalachians on Saturday. Some heating is expected during the afternoon which may lead to weak to potentially moderate instability. Mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be weak with only marginally strong shear. Given this environment, a few multicell storms are possible along and ahead of the eastward advancing cold front. However, more widespread coverage of severe storms is not anticipated at this time. ...Far South Texas... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period along a front as it moves south across Texas. A very moist airmass with steep mid-level lapse rates will be in place with 45 to 50 knots of deep-layer shear. Therefore, organized storms, including the potential for supercells exists during the morning hours Saturday before the front moves into northern Mexico/the Gulf. ..Bentley.. 05/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TRANS PECOS TO EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from the Northeast, across the Ohio, Tennessee, and Lower Mississippi Valleys and into Texas on Friday. The greatest threat for large hail will be from the Trans Pecos to East Texas. ...Synopsis... A surface low will move from Ontario into northern Quebec on Friday with a trailing front stalling from the Great Lakes to the Ozarks to West Texas. This front will start to accelerate southeast during the late afternoon/evening as a positively tilted mid-level trough amplifies and moves south across the Plains. Scattered strong to severe storms are forecast along this frontal zone Friday afternoon/evening. ...Trans Pecos to East Texas... Moderate instability is forecast south of a frontal zone across central Texas Friday afternoon. As the mid-level trough advances southward through the Plains, mid-level temperatures will cool and ascent will overspread this frontal zone. Therefore, as the airmass becomes uncapped, scattered thunderstorms should develop along the front. 35 to 40 knots of effective shear should be sufficient for supercells with a primary hazard of large hail. ...Mid Mississippi Valley to the eastern Great Lakes... Scattered thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of the front from Louisiana to western New York on Friday afternoon. The best flow will be across Kentucky and Ohio and into Pennsylvania and New York, but heating/destabilization becomes more questionable that far north. The best overlap of mid-level flow and richer low-level moisture will be across the Mid-Mississippi Valley. However, cloud cover associated with an MCS which is expected to be ongoing at the beginning of the period across Texas and Arkansas will limit heating and thus destabilization. Better instability will be likely where heating can occur to the south of the more extensive cloud cover, but shear/forcing becomes weaker farther south and east. Therefore, within the broad marginal risk from western New York to Louisiana there will likely be one or more corridors with a greater threat for severe storms, but those areas will be mesoscale in nature and highly dependent on Day 1 convection. Therefore, no higher probabilities have been added at this time. ..Bentley.. 05/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TRANS PECOS TO EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from the Northeast, across the Ohio, Tennessee, and Lower Mississippi Valleys and into Texas on Friday. The greatest threat for large hail will be from the Trans Pecos to East Texas. ...Synopsis... A surface low will move from Ontario into northern Quebec on Friday with a trailing front stalling from the Great Lakes to the Ozarks to West Texas. This front will start to accelerate southeast during the late afternoon/evening as a positively tilted mid-level trough amplifies and moves south across the Plains. Scattered strong to severe storms are forecast along this frontal zone Friday afternoon/evening. ...Trans Pecos to East Texas... Moderate instability is forecast south of a frontal zone across central Texas Friday afternoon. As the mid-level trough advances southward through the Plains, mid-level temperatures will cool and ascent will overspread this frontal zone. Therefore, as the airmass becomes uncapped, scattered thunderstorms should develop along the front. 35 to 40 knots of effective shear should be sufficient for supercells with a primary hazard of large hail. ...Mid Mississippi Valley to the eastern Great Lakes... Scattered thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of the front from Louisiana to western New York on Friday afternoon. The best flow will be across Kentucky and Ohio and into Pennsylvania and New York, but heating/destabilization becomes more questionable that far north. The best overlap of mid-level flow and richer low-level moisture will be across the Mid-Mississippi Valley. However, cloud cover associated with an MCS which is expected to be ongoing at the beginning of the period across Texas and Arkansas will limit heating and thus destabilization. Better instability will be likely where heating can occur to the south of the more extensive cloud cover, but shear/forcing becomes weaker farther south and east. Therefore, within the broad marginal risk from western New York to Louisiana there will likely be one or more corridors with a greater threat for severe storms, but those areas will be mesoscale in nature and highly dependent on Day 1 convection. Therefore, no higher probabilities have been added at this time. ..Bentley.. 05/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF WRN NY...WRN PA...WRN WV...MUCH OF OH...SERN IN...CNTRL AND ERN KY...MIDDLE TN...CNTRL/SRN MS...NRN/CNTRL LA...SRN AR...SRN OK...NRN TX... ...SUMMARY... Lines and/or clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are likely to impact parts of the Ohio Valley into lower Great Lakes, parts of the lower Mississippi Valley, and the southern Great Plains this afternoon through tonight. ...Discussion... It appears that an amplifying mid/upper flow regime across the northern mid-latitudes of the eastern Pacific into North America will undergo further amplification while continuing to develop inland through this period. This will include a prominent ridge overspreading the Canadian Rockies and northern U.S. intermountain region later today through tonight, perhaps with an embedded high evolving to the east of the Cascades. Downstream, a notable short wave trough is forecast to continue digging to the lee of the northern U.S. Rockies, preceded by a short wave trough which has recently emerged from the Southwest. Models suggest that the lead perturbation will undergo shearing, but it may still provide support for modest deepening of a surface low northeast of the middle Mississippi Valley through lower Great Lakes region by late tonight. To the southwest of this low, conglomerate outflow from extensive convective development of prior days will at least initially precede and obscure any trailing surface front. By 12Z this morning, it appears that the leading edge of this outflow will be in the process of advancing eastward through the lower Ohio Valley, while stalling and weakening across the lower Mississippi Valley through upper Texas coastal plain. It remains a bit unclear the extent to which the surface outflow, residual cloud cover and rain will impact destabilization and convective potential later today. It is possible that this could impact a sizable area centered across parts of the Mid South. ...Ohio Valley into lower Great Lakes... Uncertainty exists concerning the possible influence of convective outflow and cloud cover on destabilization, and spread is evident among the various model output concerning the synoptic evolution. However, broad surface troughing overspreading the region during the day may provide the focus for the highest probabilities of vigorous thunderstorm development. Boundary-layer moistening (including mid 60s F surface dew points) and warming may become sufficient to support mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 1000-2000+ J/kg, in the presence of 30-50 kt south to southwesterly flow in the 850-500 mb layer. This environment may become conducive to organizing lines or clusters of storms, and perhaps a few supercell structures, posing a risk of severe wind and hail, with at least some potential for tornadoes, during the afternoon and evening. ...Lower Mississippi Valley vicinity... Large-scale forcing for ascent to support convective development remains unclear, on top of the possible lingering influence of convective outflow, cloud cover and rain. However, the NAM and Rapid Refresh suggest that a zone of strengthening differential heating may develop across the Ark-La-Tex into lower Mississippi Valley during the day, providing a focus for strong destabilization beneath steep-lapse rates associated with remnant elevated mixed-layer air. Aided by boundary-layer moisture characterized by surface dew points near 70F, large CAPE on the order of 2000-3000+ J/kg is forecast beneath modest westerly mid-level flow. Perhaps aided by lift associated with low-level warm advection, organizing convection posing a risk for large hail and damaging wind gusts appears possible. This may include supercell structures, at least initially, and eventually an upscale growing, east-southeastward propagating cluster. ...Raton Mesa into southern Great Plains Red River vicinity... Models indicate another zone of potentially strong convective development may evolve late this afternoon into tonight, as the boundary layer moistens and heats beneath the northern periphery of a plume of elevated mixed-layer air. It appears that this will advect east/east-southeast of the southern Rockies, near the southern periphery of the mid-level troughing digging to the lee of the northern Rockies. Models suggest that a smaller-scale embedded perturbation may be accompanied by increasing convective development across and east-southeast of the Raton Mesa vicinity by early this evening. Aided by updraft inflow of increasing instability across the Texas Panhandle into areas near/north of the Red River, there appears potential for the evolution of an upscale growing cluster. The 01/00Z NAM, in particular, generates a convective perturbation that would appear to include 70+ kt westerly rear inflow (in the 850-700 mb layer) across Oklahoma by late tonight. Based on other output, this appears an outlier, but the evolution of a convective cluster posing a risk for severe hail and wind appears possible. ..Kerr/Weinman.. 05/01/2025 Read more