WW 215 SEVERE TSTM TX 022010Z - 030300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 215 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 310 PM CDT Fri May 2 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of West Central Texas * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 310 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Widely scattered supercell thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon across the watch area. These storms will drift southeastward through the early evening, posing a risk of very large hail and damaging winds. A tornado is also possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 80 miles north of Del Rio TX to 15 miles west southwest of Cotulla TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 209...WW 210...WW 211...WW 212...WW 213...WW 214... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28025. ...Hart Read more

WW 0212 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 212 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 E JCT TO 30 W CLL TO 15 N UTS TO 20 NNE LFK. ..KERR..05/02/25 ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 212 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC015-021-029-031-041-051-055-089-091-123-149-157-171-177-185- 187-201-209-225-255-259-285-287-291-313-339-373-407-453-455-471- 473-477-493-022340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUSTIN BASTROP BEXAR BLANCO BRAZOS BURLESON CALDWELL COLORADO COMAL DEWITT FAYETTE FORT BEND GILLESPIE GONZALES GRIMES GUADALUPE HARRIS HAYS HOUSTON KARNES KENDALL LAVACA LEE LIBERTY MADISON MONTGOMERY POLK SAN JACINTO TRAVIS TRINITY WALKER WALLER WASHINGTON WILSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 212 SEVERE TSTM TX 021740Z - 030100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 212 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 PM CDT Fri May 2 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central Texas * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 1240 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will intensify and become more widespread through the afternoon, within a very moist and unstable air mass. Supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado will be possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 95 statute miles north and south of a line from 70 miles west northwest of Austin TX to 25 miles south southeast of Lufkin TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 209...WW 210...WW 211... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...Hart Read more

WW 0211 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 211 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE LFK TO 50 E MLU TO 15 SSE GLH. ..KERR..05/02/25 ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 211 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC017-022340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHICOT LAC003-009-011-021-025-029-035-039-041-043-059-065-069-079-083- 085-107-115-127-022340- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN AVOYELLES BEAUREGARD CALDWELL CATAHOULA CONCORDIA EAST CARROLL EVANGELINE FRANKLIN GRANT LA SALLE MADISON NATCHITOCHES RAPIDES RICHLAND SABINE TENSAS VERNON WINN MSC001-007-011-015-019-021-025-029-043-049-051-053-055-063-069- 079-083-087-089-097-099-101-103-105-121-123-125-133-149-151-155- Read more

WW 211 SEVERE TSTM AR LA MS TX 021710Z - 030000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 211 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Fri May 2 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Arkansas Central and Northern Louisiana Central Mississippi East Texas * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 1210 PM until 700 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to intensify along an axis from western Louisiana into central Mississippi through the afternoon. A moist and very unstable air mass will promote the risk of severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts and large hail. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 75 miles west of Fort Polk LA to 25 miles south southeast of Columbus MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 209...WW 210... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...Hart Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0450 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An upper-level trough across the southwestern US will bring an increase in rain and mountain snow across much of the high terrain in Arizona and New Mexico on D3/Sunday. Across portions of southeastern Arizona into southwestern New Mexico, strong westerly flow aloft will overspread the region with little to no precipitation forecast. Latest fuels guidance suggests fuels in this region are critically dry. Forecast soundings indicate deeply mixed and dry profiles, which will likely support Critical fire weather concerns with relative humidity reductions into the teens and gusty winds. As such, a 70% probability was maintained with this outlook. As the low shifts eastward on D4/Monday, a surface low will deepen across western Texas/southern New Mexico. Windy/dry conditions will overlap across portions of southeastern New Mexico into western Texas behind the dryline Monday afternoon. Fuels in southeastern New Mexico have seen more recent rainfall in the last 7-14 days, with ERCs in the 50th percentile. Some additional rainfall is expected across this region and into western Texas late D3/Sunday into D4/Monday, which will likely mitigate the fire risk. Some localized Elevated concerns will remain possible where less rainfall is received. Beyond D4/Monday, some windy/dry conditions will continue across far west Texas as southern stream westerly flow aloft continues. Heights will rise across the southwest bringing lighter winds across the areas where fuels remain the driest. This will keep fire concerns low through the end of the extended. ..Thornton.. 05/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0450 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An upper-level trough across the southwestern US will bring an increase in rain and mountain snow across much of the high terrain in Arizona and New Mexico on D3/Sunday. Across portions of southeastern Arizona into southwestern New Mexico, strong westerly flow aloft will overspread the region with little to no precipitation forecast. Latest fuels guidance suggests fuels in this region are critically dry. Forecast soundings indicate deeply mixed and dry profiles, which will likely support Critical fire weather concerns with relative humidity reductions into the teens and gusty winds. As such, a 70% probability was maintained with this outlook. As the low shifts eastward on D4/Monday, a surface low will deepen across western Texas/southern New Mexico. Windy/dry conditions will overlap across portions of southeastern New Mexico into western Texas behind the dryline Monday afternoon. Fuels in southeastern New Mexico have seen more recent rainfall in the last 7-14 days, with ERCs in the 50th percentile. Some additional rainfall is expected across this region and into western Texas late D3/Sunday into D4/Monday, which will likely mitigate the fire risk. Some localized Elevated concerns will remain possible where less rainfall is received. Beyond D4/Monday, some windy/dry conditions will continue across far west Texas as southern stream westerly flow aloft continues. Heights will rise across the southwest bringing lighter winds across the areas where fuels remain the driest. This will keep fire concerns low through the end of the extended. ..Thornton.. 05/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0216 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 216 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..05/02/25 ATTN...WFO...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 216 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC015-047-055-057-083-111-115-123-129-213-227-295-313-022240- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTOW CATOOSA CHATTOOGA CHEROKEE DADE FANNIN FLOYD GILMER GORDON MURRAY PICKENS WALKER WHITFIELD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 216 SEVERE TSTM GA 022135Z - 030300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 216 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 535 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwest Georgia * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 535 PM until 1100 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Clusters of storms will spread eastward from northern Alabama into northwest Georgia through late evening with the potential to produce occasional damaging gusts up to 65 mph and large hail up to 1.5 inches in diameter. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 35 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles north northeast of Rome GA to 30 miles southeast of Rome GA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 209...WW 210...WW 211...WW 212...WW 213...WW 214...WW 215... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27025. ...Thompson Read more

WW 0209 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 209 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE GLH TO 15 E TUP TO 30 SW MSL TO 35 NNW HSV TO 30 NE HOP. ..LYONS..05/02/25 ATTN...WFO...HUN...MEG...LMK...PAH...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 209 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC079-083-022140- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LAWRENCE LIMESTONE KYC001-003-009-031-053-057-061-087-099-141-169-171-177-207-213- 217-219-227-022140- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ALLEN BARREN BUTLER CLINTON CUMBERLAND EDMONSON GREEN HART LOGAN METCALFE MONROE MUHLENBERG RUSSELL SIMPSON TAYLOR TODD WARREN MSC013-017-095-022140- MS Read more

MD 0650 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0650 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Areas affected...portions of southwestern Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 021823Z - 022030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat will increase over portions of southwestern Texas through the afternoon. Supercells capable of producing large hail (some 2+ inch in diameter) and severe wind gusts are likely, and a tornado cannot be completely ruled out. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is likely. DISCUSSION...A convective outflow boundary continues to sag southward as a small scale front/boundary advances from the Stockton Plateau. Ahead of both boundaries, the boundary layer continues to destabilize, with 3000 J/kg MLCAPE already in place given the presence of upper 60s F surface dewpoints overspread by 8-8.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates (per 18Z mesoanalysis). 60-80 kts of 300 mb westerly flow are also beginning to overspread the international border given the presence of a sub-tropical jet. As such, 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear is in place, in tandem with the aforementioned buoyancy, to support the development of supercells this afternoon. Severe hail and wind are the main threats. A few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail may occur, along with a tornado. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be needed soon. ..Squitieri/Hart.. 05/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 29590204 30380193 30980140 31220033 31209921 30609908 29739935 29239974 29020026 29070067 29370105 29590145 29620163 29590204 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

MD 0651 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 211... FOR PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN TEXAS...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA...AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 0651 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Areas affected...portions of far eastern Texas...central and northern Louisiana...and central Mississippi Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 211... Valid 021847Z - 022045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 211 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 211. Large hail and damaging gusts remain the primary threats. DISCUSSION...Multiple multicellular clusters and transient supercells have oscillated in intensity across portions of far eastern TX into central MS over the past few hours, with a few reports of marginal severe hail received. These storms continue to progress eastward into a moderately unstable airmass (i.e. 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE), but relatively weak deep-layer shear. As such, the expectation is for multicellular clusters to continue fluctuating in strength through the afternoon, with strong/damaging gusts and large hail possible with a subset of storms at the peak of their intensity. ..Squitieri.. 05/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX... LAT...LON 31459480 32689225 33809018 33708866 33088844 32288929 31169155 30759270 30619347 30739445 31459480 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 0652 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 210... FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN OH AND WESTERN PA
Mesoscale Discussion 0652 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Areas affected...central/eastern OH and western PA Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 210... Valid 021858Z - 022100Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 210 continues. SUMMARY...Isolated quarter to half-dollar size hail along with localized strong gusts to around 60 mph should persist into early evening. DISCUSSION...Deeper convective cores have persisted just ahead of a weak cold front lagging in western OH. Numerous, but shallower updrafts, are present farther east-southeast in southern OH to western PA, where large-scale ascent is weaker. Area VWP data depicts nearly unidirectional southwesterly flow across the region, stronger closer to Lake Erie and diminishing south towards the OH River. Sporadic small to marginally severe hail should remain the overarching threat, but an increase in localized damaging winds may occur towards early evening as cells loosely consolidate and weaken. ..Grams.. 05/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN... LAT...LON 41588141 41688054 41878002 41927964 41937951 41637921 41227914 40987917 40787933 40218043 39548170 39238222 39048274 39098329 39838302 40638247 41328186 41588141 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 0653 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 212... FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0653 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Areas affected...portions of central into southern Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 212... Valid 021905Z - 022030Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 212 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 212. Large hail is currently the main threat, though a couple of severe gusts and a tornado are also possible. The best chance for a tornado exists with supercell structures that are attempting to mature along an outflow boundary. DISCUSSION...Multiple areas of strong to severe thunderstorms are developing or are underway across portions of central into southern Texas. Multiple storms are attempting to mature along a southward surging cold front in central TX, with supercells also developing along a residual outflow boundary from earlier storms over central into southern TX. The greatest short-term threat for severe, including the possibility for a tornado or instance of 2+ inch diameter hail, exists with the outflow-boundary supercells. Here, the HGX VAD profile shows an elongated hodograph with modest curvature in the lowest few km. The severe threat should persist across central into southern TX for several more hours. ..Squitieri.. 05/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 30259922 31249865 32069786 32349608 31799530 31059468 30239458 29909479 29559547 29209673 28939744 28909786 29079842 29469888 30259922 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

MD 0654 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 209...213...214... FOR NORTH AL...FAR NORTHWEST GA...FAR SOUTHEAST TN
Mesoscale Discussion 0654 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0303 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Areas affected...north AL...far northwest GA...far southeast TN Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 209...213...214... Valid 022003Z - 022200Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 209, 213, 214 continues. SUMMARY...A mix of marginal severe hail and strong to isolated severe gusts is expected to persist across mainly northern Alabama through early evening. DISCUSSION...Yet another line segment has consolidated, this time along the MS/AL border area, generally on the southern periphery of the scattered convective swaths over the Deep South and TN Valley. With low to mid 80s surface temperatures ahead of this line at peak mixing of the boundary layer, potential for strong to severe gusts (55-70 mph) should mainly spread across north AL through early evening. Recent surface observations from KHSV and KCBM have measured 48 kt gusts. Small to marginally severe hail cores will remain embedded within the line and in additional cells that can redevelop atop the large-scale convective outflows, across far north AL and north GA. Areas farther north-northwest in middle TN appear to be well stabilized. ..Grams.. 05/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...JAN... LAT...LON 34718772 33958795 33498839 32908824 32688793 32818707 33618607 34088519 34358501 34718497 35018502 35188532 35168574 35148621 34808763 34718772 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TX...THE LOWER MS VALLEY TN VALLEY AND LOWER OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong/severe thunderstorms will continue across parts of central and eastern Texas to the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and into the Cumberland Plateau this afternoon and evening. This includes potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...20z Update... The prior outlook remains largely unchanged. Numerous strong thunderstorms and severe potential continues across the eastern half of the CONUS. Storm coverage has gradually increased, and should continue to do so this afternoon/evening along a broad frontal zone from TX to OH. Damaging winds and hail are likely. ...Rio Grand Valley to LA... South of the slow moving convectively modified front, robust heating amid 70's F surface dewpoints will favor additional storm development this afternoon/evening from southern TX to LA. Low-level winds will be rather weak, but sufficient deep-layer shear will promote supercells amid very large SBCAPE (4000-5000 J/kg) and weak inhibition. Given the expected storm mode, very large hail appears probable with initial storms across southern TX. The damaging wind threat should increase through this evening as the front continues south and upscale growth promotes a more linear mode as storms spread eastward into the lower MS Valley tonight. ...GA into the western Carolinas... A cluster of predominately multicell storms has emerged and persisted across the southern Appalachians this afternoon. Moderate buoyancy amid weak vertical shear appears likely to support a continued risk for intermittent strong updrafts. Hail probabilities have been increased ahead of this cluster as additional storms are likely over the next several hours. As clustering continues, some damaging wind threat may also evolve as individual cold pools gradually coalesce. ...TN Valley... The severe risk continues across the Mid South and TN Valley ahead of several loosely organized convective bands and cells. Moderate CAPE (2000+ J/kg) and 25-35 kt of shear will promote occasional storm organization with a risk for hail, and eventually damaging gusts as amalgamation into loosely organized clusters occurs this evening. ..Lyons.. 05/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025/ ...TN/OH Valleys... Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are affecting parts of AR/northern MS/west TN late this morning. These storms will progress northeastward into a very moist and unstable air mass, where strong heating and dewpoints near 70F will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg. Moderately strong westerly flow aloft will aid in convective organization, posing a risk of multicell storms and bowing line segments capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Southerly low-level wind are strong enough to pose a risk of a tornado or two, if one or more of the clusters can become better organized. Reference WW 209. ...OH/PA... Thunderstorms are beginning to develop across western OH along a weak cold front. This activity will increase in coverage through the afternoon, spreading northeastward across OH and into northwest PA. The strongest cells will be capable of damaging wind gusts and hail. Reference MCD #645. ...TX/LA... A convectively aided front is sagging southward across north TX this morning. The air mass along and ahead of the boundary is very moist and unstable, with forecast soundings showing steep mid-level lapse rates and at least pockets of very large CAPE (4000-5000 J/kg). Weak inhibition will lead to scattered thunderstorm development along the boundary by mid-afternoon. Low-level winds will be rather weak, but sufficient deep-layer shear will promote supercells capable of very large hail and damaging wind. Very strong anvil-level winds will aid in the large/giant hail potential. Reference MCD #646. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TX...THE LOWER MS VALLEY TN VALLEY AND LOWER OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong/severe thunderstorms will continue across parts of central and eastern Texas to the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and into the Cumberland Plateau this afternoon and evening. This includes potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...20z Update... The prior outlook remains largely unchanged. Numerous strong thunderstorms and severe potential continues across the eastern half of the CONUS. Storm coverage has gradually increased, and should continue to do so this afternoon/evening along a broad frontal zone from TX to OH. Damaging winds and hail are likely. ...Rio Grand Valley to LA... South of the slow moving convectively modified front, robust heating amid 70's F surface dewpoints will favor additional storm development this afternoon/evening from southern TX to LA. Low-level winds will be rather weak, but sufficient deep-layer shear will promote supercells amid very large SBCAPE (4000-5000 J/kg) and weak inhibition. Given the expected storm mode, very large hail appears probable with initial storms across southern TX. The damaging wind threat should increase through this evening as the front continues south and upscale growth promotes a more linear mode as storms spread eastward into the lower MS Valley tonight. ...GA into the western Carolinas... A cluster of predominately multicell storms has emerged and persisted across the southern Appalachians this afternoon. Moderate buoyancy amid weak vertical shear appears likely to support a continued risk for intermittent strong updrafts. Hail probabilities have been increased ahead of this cluster as additional storms are likely over the next several hours. As clustering continues, some damaging wind threat may also evolve as individual cold pools gradually coalesce. ...TN Valley... The severe risk continues across the Mid South and TN Valley ahead of several loosely organized convective bands and cells. Moderate CAPE (2000+ J/kg) and 25-35 kt of shear will promote occasional storm organization with a risk for hail, and eventually damaging gusts as amalgamation into loosely organized clusters occurs this evening. ..Lyons.. 05/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025/ ...TN/OH Valleys... Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are affecting parts of AR/northern MS/west TN late this morning. These storms will progress northeastward into a very moist and unstable air mass, where strong heating and dewpoints near 70F will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg. Moderately strong westerly flow aloft will aid in convective organization, posing a risk of multicell storms and bowing line segments capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Southerly low-level wind are strong enough to pose a risk of a tornado or two, if one or more of the clusters can become better organized. Reference WW 209. ...OH/PA... Thunderstorms are beginning to develop across western OH along a weak cold front. This activity will increase in coverage through the afternoon, spreading northeastward across OH and into northwest PA. The strongest cells will be capable of damaging wind gusts and hail. Reference MCD #645. ...TX/LA... A convectively aided front is sagging southward across north TX this morning. The air mass along and ahead of the boundary is very moist and unstable, with forecast soundings showing steep mid-level lapse rates and at least pockets of very large CAPE (4000-5000 J/kg). Weak inhibition will lead to scattered thunderstorm development along the boundary by mid-afternoon. Low-level winds will be rather weak, but sufficient deep-layer shear will promote supercells capable of very large hail and damaging wind. Very strong anvil-level winds will aid in the large/giant hail potential. Reference MCD #646. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Dry thunderstorm chances were removed from the D2 Fire Weather Outlook with this update. Portions of central New Mexico into eastern Arizona will likely receive wetting rainfall on D1. Precipitable water values will remain near or just under 0.50" for D2, with slow storm motions forecast to continue. Additional wetting rainfall will be possible in this regime as scattered thunderstorms are expected. ..Thornton.. 05/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue to be focused across the Southwest as isolated to scattered thunderstorms develop through late Saturday afternoon. Upper ridging is expected to spread across the High Plains through the day as an upper wave begins to approach the West Coast. Southerly low/mid-level flow ahead of the upper wave will help maintain a modestly moist air mass (characterized by 0.4 to 0.6 inch PWAT values) across the Southwest into the Great Basin. Increasing broad scale ascent, coupled with antecedent steep mid-level lapse rates, will promote isolated thunderstorms from central NM to central NV by late afternoon. Limited moisture throughout the column combined with deep boundary layers will act to limit precipitation amounts and support dry lightning strikes. While this potential is noted across a broad swath of the region, the fire weather threat will be greatest across eastern AZ into NM where fuel conditions are currently the driest per recent fuel and drought guidance. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Dry thunderstorm chances were removed from the D2 Fire Weather Outlook with this update. Portions of central New Mexico into eastern Arizona will likely receive wetting rainfall on D1. Precipitable water values will remain near or just under 0.50" for D2, with slow storm motions forecast to continue. Additional wetting rainfall will be possible in this regime as scattered thunderstorms are expected. ..Thornton.. 05/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue to be focused across the Southwest as isolated to scattered thunderstorms develop through late Saturday afternoon. Upper ridging is expected to spread across the High Plains through the day as an upper wave begins to approach the West Coast. Southerly low/mid-level flow ahead of the upper wave will help maintain a modestly moist air mass (characterized by 0.4 to 0.6 inch PWAT values) across the Southwest into the Great Basin. Increasing broad scale ascent, coupled with antecedent steep mid-level lapse rates, will promote isolated thunderstorms from central NM to central NV by late afternoon. Limited moisture throughout the column combined with deep boundary layers will act to limit precipitation amounts and support dry lightning strikes. While this potential is noted across a broad swath of the region, the fire weather threat will be greatest across eastern AZ into NM where fuel conditions are currently the driest per recent fuel and drought guidance. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA EAST COAST INTO SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible along the Florida east coast into the North Carolina/Virginia Piedmont and southern Pennsylvania. Additional severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern New Mexico. ...Coastal GA to southern PA... A mid/upper cyclone will remain centered over the OH/TN Valley vicinity on Sunday. This will maintain a belt of enhanced mid/upper flow across portions of the Southeast and central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic vicinity. Meanwhile, at the surface a cold front will stall from roughly northern VA into southeast GA and the FL Panhandle. Ahead of the surface boundary, 60s F dewpoints will be in place as far north as the Delmarva. Morning showers and clouds across the region may limit stronger heating and destabilization, but continued moist advection beneath modest midlevel lapse rates will support corridors of MLCAPE around 500-750 J/kg. Vertical shear will remain modest, around 25 kt effective shear magnitudes, but sufficient for at least transient organized updrafts. Stronger cells may produce locally damaging gusts or marginal hail. ...FL... While large-scale ascent will remain nebulous across the region, low to mid-60s F dewpoints and strong heating will support weak to moderate diurnal destabilization. Forecast guidance suggests a well-defined sea breeze will develop along the FL east coast. Low-level convergence along this boundary within the moderately unstable airmass should support isolated to scattered cellular/multicell convection during the afternoon. While vertical shear will remain modest (around 25 kt effective shear), vertically veering profiles and steep low-level lapse rates suggest locally strong gusts and perhaps a tornado could occur along the sea breeze boundary. ...Eastern NM... An upper cyclone will develop eastward across the Southwest on Sunday. A belt of enhanced mid/upper southerly flow will overspread the southern Rockies/adjacent High Plains during the afternoon/evening. Near the surface, southeasterly upslope flow is forecast. While boundary moisture will remain meager (dewpoints generally in the 40s F), cool temperatures aloft (around -15 C at 500 mb) will result in steep midlevel lapse rates, supporting weak instability. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the central mountains of NM and spread into the adjacent High Plains with time from late afternoon into the evening hours. Isolated large hail and strong gusts will be possible with these storms. ..Leitman.. 05/02/2025 Read more