WW 0218 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 218 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S ORH TO 25 S CON TO 10 W PSM. ..KERR..05/03/25 ATTN...WFO...BOX...ALY...GYX...OKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 218 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC013-032240- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE TOLLAND MAC017-032240- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MIDDLESEX NHC015-032240- NH . NEW HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ROCKINGHAM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 0218 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 218 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S ORH TO 25 S CON TO 10 W PSM. ..KERR..05/03/25 ATTN...WFO...BOX...ALY...GYX...OKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 218 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC013-032240- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE TOLLAND MAC017-032240- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MIDDLESEX NHC015-032240- NH . NEW HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ROCKINGHAM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 0221 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 221 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW SEM TO 35 NNE MGM TO 30 NW LGC TO 55 SSE TYS. ..MOORE..05/03/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 221 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC005-011-017-047-051-081-085-087-101-109-113-123-040040- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBOUR BULLOCK CHAMBERS DALLAS ELMORE LEE LOWNDES MACON MONTGOMERY PIKE RUSSELL TALLAPOOSA GAC011-013-035-063-067-077-085-089-097-113-117-121-135-139-145- 149-151-157-171-187-199-215-217-231-247-255-263-285-293-297- 040040- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANKS BARROW BUTTS CLAYTON COBB COWETA DAWSON DEKALB DOUGLAS FAYETTE FORSYTH FULTON GWINNETT HALL HARRIS HEARD HENRY JACKSON LAMAR LUMPKIN MERIWETHER Read more

MD 0670 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR THE TRANS-PECOS IN SOUTHWEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0670 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Areas affected...the Trans-Pecos in southwest Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 032006Z - 032230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...An isolated supercell or two, capable of large hail, may develop this afternoon. If storms form and intensify, the severe threat should still be isolated, so a WW issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Convection continues to deepen across the Trans-Pecos region in southwest TX as warming surface temperatures beneath 7 C/km mid-level lapse rates contributes to 500+ J/kg MLCAPE. Despite mid-level ridging, the overspreading of a 60-80 kt 300 mb jet stream is resulting in 40+ kts of 0-6 km speed shear (per latest RAP forecast soundings and mesoanalysis). This vertical shear profile, along with the aforementioned buoyancy, is adequate in supporting supercell storm modes capable of producing large hail with any updrafts that can mature and sustain themselves. Given modest instability and ascent, storm development should remain quite isolated, along with any severe threat that manages to materialize. Given the anticipated isolated severe threat, a WW issuance is unlikely. ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 05/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...MAF...EPZ... LAT...LON 31010569 31230513 31170422 31050308 30670203 30090164 29750173 29710228 29650256 29350275 28990303 28940329 29110392 29490440 29750463 30140483 30460500 30600517 31010569 MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0219 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0219 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 219 SEVERE TSTM DC MD PA VA WV CW 032035Z - 040200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 219 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 435 PM EDT Sat May 3 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Central into Northeast Maryland Southeast Pennsylvania Northern Virginia The Far Eastern West Virginia Panhandle Coastal Waters * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 435 PM until 1000 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered supercells should pose some threat for severe hail around 1-1.5 inches in diameter and damaging winds late this afternoon into the evening. A tornado or two may also occur. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 35 statute miles east and west of a line from 65 miles north of Baltimore MD to 65 miles southwest of Washington DC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 218... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0218 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 218 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW BDL TO 20 NNE BAF TO 15 WNW PSM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0668. ..GRAMS..05/03/25 ATTN...WFO...BOX...ALY...GYX...OKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 218 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC003-013-032140- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HARTFORD TOLLAND MAC011-013-015-017-027-032140- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FRANKLIN HAMPDEN HAMPSHIRE MIDDLESEX WORCESTER NHC011-015-032140- NH . NEW HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HILLSBOROUGH ROCKINGHAM Read more

WW 218 SEVERE TSTM CT MA ME NH NY VT 031710Z - 040000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 218 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 110 PM EDT Sat May 3 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Connecticut Massachusetts Far Southern Maine Southern New Hampshire Southern New York Southern Vermont * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 110 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should continue to increase in coverage and intensity in a narrow southwest-to-northeast corridor this afternoon. Scattered damaging winds and occasional severe hail should be the main threats with this activity. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles west of Poughkeepsie NY to 25 miles east southeast of Concord NH. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...Gleason Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z As an upper-level low shifts eastward out of the Southwest on D3/Monday, a surface low will deepen across western Texas/southern New Mexico. Windy/dry conditions will overlap across portions of central and southern New Mexico into western Texas behind the dryline Monday afternoon. Light to locally moderate rainfall has occurred over the last 24-48 hours across central New Mexico, however, fuels in this region remain critically dry with dry/windy conditions forecast on D2/Sunday. Some overlap of afternoon elevated to locally critical wind and relative humidity appears likely again Monday. A 40 percent delineation was added to cover this risk. Further south and east, fuels in southeastern New Mexico have seen more recent rainfall in the last 7-14 days, with ERCs in the 50th percentile. Some additional rainfall is expected across this region and into western Texas late D2/Sunday into D3/Monday, which will likely mitigate the fire risk. Some localized Elevated concerns will remain possible where less rainfall is received. Beyond D3/Monday, some windy/dry conditions will continue across far west Texas as southern stream westerly flow aloft continues. Heights will rise across the southwest bringing lighter winds across the areas where fuels remain the driest. This will keep fire concerns low through much of the extended. ..Thornton.. 05/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z As an upper-level low shifts eastward out of the Southwest on D3/Monday, a surface low will deepen across western Texas/southern New Mexico. Windy/dry conditions will overlap across portions of central and southern New Mexico into western Texas behind the dryline Monday afternoon. Light to locally moderate rainfall has occurred over the last 24-48 hours across central New Mexico, however, fuels in this region remain critically dry with dry/windy conditions forecast on D2/Sunday. Some overlap of afternoon elevated to locally critical wind and relative humidity appears likely again Monday. A 40 percent delineation was added to cover this risk. Further south and east, fuels in southeastern New Mexico have seen more recent rainfall in the last 7-14 days, with ERCs in the 50th percentile. Some additional rainfall is expected across this region and into western Texas late D2/Sunday into D3/Monday, which will likely mitigate the fire risk. Some localized Elevated concerns will remain possible where less rainfall is received. Beyond D3/Monday, some windy/dry conditions will continue across far west Texas as southern stream westerly flow aloft continues. Heights will rise across the southwest bringing lighter winds across the areas where fuels remain the driest. This will keep fire concerns low through much of the extended. ..Thornton.. 05/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening from parts of the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. A more isolated severe threat may develop across the Southeast, and also across parts of the Great Basin and far west Texas. ...20z update... Minimal changes were made to the current forecast, mostly trimming probabilities from the west. A broad corridor of severe potential continues from southern New England to the Gulf Coast. Partial diurnal heating east of the frontal zone is supporting a few clusters of stronger storms from southern NY/New England and the Mid Atlantic to the western Carolinas. 30-40 kt of bulk shear, in combination with 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE will favor damaging winds as the main threat with the multicell clusters or transient supercells that develop as they spread northeastward through the evening. Some sporadic hail and a brief tornado will also be possible with any stronger rotating storms. ...AL and western GA... Another corridor of locally stronger clusters may evolve across the Gulf Coast, to central AL and into western GA later this afternoon into the evening. Here, stronger diurnal heating (temps in the mid to upper 70s F) amid enhanced mid-level flow from the sub tropical jet may pose a locally greater severe risk for a few hours. A mix of line segments and some supercell structures could pose a locally greater severe risk. Some consideration was given to higher wind probabilities here, but confidence in more robust convective organization remains low, with lingering cloud cover, modest forcing and limited buoyancy. Otherwise, the outlook remains unchanged, see the previous discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 05/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025/ ...Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and New England... Generally upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints are present along/east of the higher terrain of the Blue Ridge/Appalachians from parts of the Carolinas northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. Even with mid-level lapse rates remaining fairly modest, around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE is forecast to develop this afternoon in a narrow corridor across these regions with additional filtered daytime heating. Large-scale ascent associated with a slow-moving upper trough over the mid MS Valley will gradually overspread the destabilizing warm sector in the next few hours. This ascent, along with orographic lift over the higher terrain, should aid in the development of scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear should be present, which will support a mix of multicells and marginal supercells. Scattered damaging winds should be the main threat with the multiple clusters that develop as they spread northeastward through the evening, but some hail may also occur with any sustained supercell. Greater confidence exists in overall thunderstorm coverage and intensity across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, where the Slight Risk has been maintained with minimal changes. The tornado threat remains less clear across these regions, but some modest enhancement to the southwesterly low-level flow could aid in occasional low-level updraft rotation. ...Southeast... 12Z soundings across the central Gulf Coast states show that convection that occurred yesterday into the overnight/early morning hours generally stabilized the environment this morning. Widespread cloudiness evident in visible satellite imagery late this morning should tend to delay/hinder robust destabilization this afternoon along/ahead of the southeastward-advancing synoptic cold front, which lends considerable uncertainty to the overall intensity of renewed convection along/ahead of the front later today. Still, mid-level winds and related deep-layer shear are forecast to gradually strengthen through the afternoon/evening as the upper trough over the mid MS/lower OH Valley develops slowly eastward. This should support some threat for organized convection, and isolated damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can form. With continued concerns regarding the degree of instability developing this afternoon, confidence remains too low to include greater severe wind probabilities at this time. ...Great Basin... Modestly enhanced southerly mid-level flow will overspread parts of the western and northern Great Basin as an upper trough moves eastward over the western CONUS through the afternoon/evening. While boundary-layer moisture is expected to remain very limited, increasing mid-level moisture and diurnal destabilization should aid in weak MLCAPE developing by this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop and spread northward, with an isolated threat for severe winds given steepened low-level lapse rates and a very well mixed boundary layer. Small hail may also occur with the strongest cores. ...Far West Texas... Even though large-scale ascent should remain weak/nebulous across far west TX and vicinity today, isolated supercell development still appears possible in a modest post-frontal/low-level upslope flow regime. Both low-level winds and MLCAPE are expected to remain modest, but strengthening westerly winds with height in mid/upper levels should support around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear and some updraft organization. Based on latest guidance trends showing a supercell or two developing this afternoon/evening, have introduced a Marginal Risk for hail across parts of far west TX and vicinity. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening from parts of the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. A more isolated severe threat may develop across the Southeast, and also across parts of the Great Basin and far west Texas. ...20z update... Minimal changes were made to the current forecast, mostly trimming probabilities from the west. A broad corridor of severe potential continues from southern New England to the Gulf Coast. Partial diurnal heating east of the frontal zone is supporting a few clusters of stronger storms from southern NY/New England and the Mid Atlantic to the western Carolinas. 30-40 kt of bulk shear, in combination with 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE will favor damaging winds as the main threat with the multicell clusters or transient supercells that develop as they spread northeastward through the evening. Some sporadic hail and a brief tornado will also be possible with any stronger rotating storms. ...AL and western GA... Another corridor of locally stronger clusters may evolve across the Gulf Coast, to central AL and into western GA later this afternoon into the evening. Here, stronger diurnal heating (temps in the mid to upper 70s F) amid enhanced mid-level flow from the sub tropical jet may pose a locally greater severe risk for a few hours. A mix of line segments and some supercell structures could pose a locally greater severe risk. Some consideration was given to higher wind probabilities here, but confidence in more robust convective organization remains low, with lingering cloud cover, modest forcing and limited buoyancy. Otherwise, the outlook remains unchanged, see the previous discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 05/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025/ ...Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and New England... Generally upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints are present along/east of the higher terrain of the Blue Ridge/Appalachians from parts of the Carolinas northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. Even with mid-level lapse rates remaining fairly modest, around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE is forecast to develop this afternoon in a narrow corridor across these regions with additional filtered daytime heating. Large-scale ascent associated with a slow-moving upper trough over the mid MS Valley will gradually overspread the destabilizing warm sector in the next few hours. This ascent, along with orographic lift over the higher terrain, should aid in the development of scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear should be present, which will support a mix of multicells and marginal supercells. Scattered damaging winds should be the main threat with the multiple clusters that develop as they spread northeastward through the evening, but some hail may also occur with any sustained supercell. Greater confidence exists in overall thunderstorm coverage and intensity across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, where the Slight Risk has been maintained with minimal changes. The tornado threat remains less clear across these regions, but some modest enhancement to the southwesterly low-level flow could aid in occasional low-level updraft rotation. ...Southeast... 12Z soundings across the central Gulf Coast states show that convection that occurred yesterday into the overnight/early morning hours generally stabilized the environment this morning. Widespread cloudiness evident in visible satellite imagery late this morning should tend to delay/hinder robust destabilization this afternoon along/ahead of the southeastward-advancing synoptic cold front, which lends considerable uncertainty to the overall intensity of renewed convection along/ahead of the front later today. Still, mid-level winds and related deep-layer shear are forecast to gradually strengthen through the afternoon/evening as the upper trough over the mid MS/lower OH Valley develops slowly eastward. This should support some threat for organized convection, and isolated damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can form. With continued concerns regarding the degree of instability developing this afternoon, confidence remains too low to include greater severe wind probabilities at this time. ...Great Basin... Modestly enhanced southerly mid-level flow will overspread parts of the western and northern Great Basin as an upper trough moves eastward over the western CONUS through the afternoon/evening. While boundary-layer moisture is expected to remain very limited, increasing mid-level moisture and diurnal destabilization should aid in weak MLCAPE developing by this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop and spread northward, with an isolated threat for severe winds given steepened low-level lapse rates and a very well mixed boundary layer. Small hail may also occur with the strongest cores. ...Far West Texas... Even though large-scale ascent should remain weak/nebulous across far west TX and vicinity today, isolated supercell development still appears possible in a modest post-frontal/low-level upslope flow regime. Both low-level winds and MLCAPE are expected to remain modest, but strengthening westerly winds with height in mid/upper levels should support around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear and some updraft organization. Based on latest guidance trends showing a supercell or two developing this afternoon/evening, have introduced a Marginal Risk for hail across parts of far west TX and vicinity. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern High Plains into parts of central Texas Monday afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats. Additional strong to severe storms are possible along the eastern Florida east coast and from northeast North Carolina to the Lake Erie vicinity. ...Southern High Plains into central Texas... The upper shortwave trough/low over the Southwest will pivot east to the southern Rockies/High Plains on Monday. Enhanced southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the region as this occurs. In the low-levels, lee troughing will strengthen along the High Plains with a small surface low forming over far west TX. Strengthening southeasterly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northwest, with upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints expected across the TX South Plains and Permian Basin/Trans-Pecos region. More modest moisture will extend northward into the TX/OK Panhandles and southeast CO to the north of a warm front draped across north-central TX. Strong heating along the dryline extending along the TX/NM border vicinity into the Big Bend is forecast. Cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and moderate instability is expected. Supercell wind profiles, with curved low-level hodographs, becoming elongated/straight above 2-3 km suggest large to very large hail will be possible with initial convection. Additional storms are likely to develop in the low-level warm advection regime along the warm front, and as a low-level jet strengthens during the evening/overnight. This may support upscale development with time, and an MCS could form and track across central TX with an attendant risk for damaging gusts. More isolated storms are expected within the modestly unstable, but still strongly sheared environment with northward extent across the OK/TX Panhandles into southeast CO. Hail and gust winds may occur with this activity into Monday evening. ...North Carolina to Lake Erie... The upper cyclone over KY early Monday will lift northeast toward the upper Ohio Valley. Enhanced mid/upper flow will persist over the region while cooling aloft supports modestly steep midlevel lapse rates. At the surface, southeasterly low-level flow will support mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints. Diurnal heating may be limited by cloudiness and perhaps areas of morning showers. Nevertheless, modest destabilization to less than 1000 J/kg MLCAPE appears possible. Sufficient vertical shear will be present for some cellular organization, and isolated hail and perhaps locally gusty winds will be possible. ...Florida... Thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday afternoon in a moderately unstable airmass (supported by mid 60s dewpoints and cool temperatures aloft). Low to midlevel flow will remain weak on the southern periphery of the upper cyclone over the Ohio Valley. However, vertically veering profiles becoming northwesterly above 500 mb will support around 25 kt effective shear, and elongated/straight hodographs. Isolated hail and gusty winds are possible. ..Leitman.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more info. ..Thornton.. 05/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... ...Southwest... Fire weather concerns are expected to increase across portions of southwest New Mexico and into adjacent areas of far southeast Arizona. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave off the West Coast that is forecast to progress inland over the next 48 hours. As this occurs, surface pressure falls are expected across the Four Corners region with a strengthening of low/mid-level flow over southern AZ/NM. Although a band of isolated to scattered thunderstorms is expected across central portions of these states, a plume of very dry air emanating out of northern Mexico will overspread far southeast AZ/southwest NM. Ensemble guidance shows very good agreement in afternoon RH reductions into the teens with 15-25 mph winds. Severe rainfall deficits over the past 30 days (10-20% of normal) have allowed fuels to dry with ERC values generally above the 80th percentile across southern NM/southeast AZ. Both elevated and critical fire weather conditions may extend north of the current outlook area into western NM; however, swaths of wetting rainfall over the past 24 hours should modulate the fire threat with northward and eastward extent. ...Northern Plains... The development of a lee cyclone over the northern High Plains on Sunday afternoon will induce strong southerly winds across the central to northern Plains. A recent frontal intrusion into the western Gulf yesterday, followed by weak offshore flow today, will result in limited moisture return on Sunday. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions appear possible across the Dakotas and eastern MT as winds increase to 15-20 mph with RH minimums in the 20-30% range. However, recent rainfall over the past 72 hours has increased fuel moisture for the near term. Fuel trends will continue to be monitored, and highlights may be needed if fine fuels can sufficiently recover over the next 24-48 hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0665 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 0665 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Areas affected...parts of the Northeast and southern New England Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 031614Z - 031815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...An increasing severe threat is expected through the afternoon across a confined corridor of the Northeast and southern New England. A mix of at least isolated damaging winds and hail is anticipated. A severe thunderstorm watch issuance appears likely. DISCUSSION...Bulk of morning guidance, outside of the HRRR and parent RAP, suggest a favorable corridor of at least isolated severe storms should develop from the PA/NJ/NY border northeastward across parts of interior southern New England. Robust boundary-layer heating is underway ahead of the minor lobe of ascent over eastern PA and south of the quasi-stationary front. The differential heating across the front will aid in strengthening the baroclinic zone. While mid-level lapse rates are weak and will temper overall storm intensity, nearly unidirectional southwesterly wind profiles with moderate speed shear will foster occasional updraft rotation. A mix of cells and small clusters should support both a severe hail/wind threat in a confined corridor through the afternoon. ..Grams/Gleason.. 05/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM... LAT...LON 41187498 42107438 42727332 43327208 43437130 43187092 42597125 41777276 41177389 40647457 40437498 40537542 41187498 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 0666 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MISSISSIPPI INTO ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Mesoscale Discussion 0666 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Areas affected...portions of eastern Mississippi into Alabama and southern Middle Tennessee Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 031734Z - 032000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat should gradually increase into the afternoon hours. At least isolated instances of strong/damaging gusts or large hail are possible with the stronger, sustained storms. DISCUSSION...MRMS mosaic radar imagery depicts deepening convection along the MS/AL border, with 40 dBZ echoes reaching 30 kft amid increasing lightning trends. These storms are attempting to strengthen amid a modestly sheared airmass (i.e. 40 kts of effective bulk shear per 17Z mesoanalysis and regional VADs). However, buoyancy still remains quite marginal, with surface temperatures/dewpoints in the 60s F, beneath 6 C/km tropospheric lapse rates, contributing to 500 J/kg MLCAPE. Diurnal heating may further boost low-level lapse rates, supporting better boundary-layer buoyancy and the potential for stronger storms later this afternoon, with mixed storm modes supporting the threat for strong/damaging gusts and perhaps some hail. It is unclear how widespread the severe potential will become since ample cloud cover may continue to inhibit diurnal heating to some degree. If greater buoyancy is realized than forecast, then regionally greater severe potential may materialize, which could necessitate a WW issuance. ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 05/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN... LAT...LON 31588904 32108926 32918868 34438751 35028710 35188672 34928605 33628598 32378640 31848706 31638802 31588904 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA EAST COAST INTO SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...AND ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible along the Florida east coast into the North Carolina/Virginia Piedmont and southwestern Pennsylvania. Additional severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern New Mexico. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper cyclone will remain positioned over the OH/TN Valley vicinity on Sunday. This will maintain a belt of enhanced mid/upper south to southwesterly flow from FL to the Upper OH Valley. Further west, a large-scale upper trough will develop eastward across the western states, while an upper low develops within the southern branch of this system across the Southwest. As this occurs, strengthening mid/upper south/southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. At the surface, a weak low is expected across WV with a cold front extending south across the VA/NC Piedmont and the SC/GA coastal vicinity before arcing southwest across north FL and the eastern Gulf. Additionally, a sea breeze is expected to develop during the late morning into afternoon along the FL east coast. Modest boundary layer moisture from the upper 50s to mid 60s F (higher dewpoints with southward extent) will be in place ahead of the front. Across the southern Rockies/High Plains vicinity, lee troughing will modestly strengthen during the afternoon/evening. Richer moisture will remain well to the south, but dewpoints in the upper 40s to low 50s F are forecast. ...Florida... Cool temperatures aloft (-12 to -14 C at 500 mb) will support steep midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km. Strong heating and low to mid 60s F dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will foster moderate instability, with MLCAPE values topping out near 2000 J/kg. While deep-layer flow will remain modest, effective shear near 25 kt and vertically veering profiles will support at least transient storm organization. Low-level convergence along the sea breeze and the moderately unstable airmass should support isolated to scattered robust updrafts. The strongest storms could produce marginally severe hail and severe/damaging gusts. While low-level shear will remain weak, sufficient moisture and 0-3 km MLCAPE amid small but curved low-level hodographs suggests a brief tornado or two could develop on the sea breeze boundary. Uncertainty regarding storm coverage and longevity of strong updrafts precludes higher severe probabilities at this time. ...Coastal GA/SC to southwest PA... A modestly destabilizing airmass ahead of the surface cold front and within the warm conveyor ahead of the upper low should support thunderstorm development during the afternoon. Low-level flow will remain light, but increase with height to around 50 kt at 500 mb, supporting 25-35 kt effective shear across the region, and leading to elongated/straight hodographs. Meanwhile, cool temperatures aloft (-14 to -18 C at 500 mb) will support midlevel lapse rates of 6.5-7 C/km. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may produce marginally severe hail and gusty winds through early evening. ...New Mexico... Despite meager boundary layer moisture, cool temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and modest destabilization during the afternoon/evening. Shortwave impulses ejecting through increasing south/southwesterly mid/upper flow ahead of the Southwest upper trough/low, and low-level upslope flow will allow for scattered thunderstorm development by late afternoon into the afternoon. Strong vertical shear should support at least a few organized cells despite modest instability, and isolated hail and strong gusts will be possible. ..Leitman.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA EAST COAST INTO SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...AND ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible along the Florida east coast into the North Carolina/Virginia Piedmont and southwestern Pennsylvania. Additional severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern New Mexico. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper cyclone will remain positioned over the OH/TN Valley vicinity on Sunday. This will maintain a belt of enhanced mid/upper south to southwesterly flow from FL to the Upper OH Valley. Further west, a large-scale upper trough will develop eastward across the western states, while an upper low develops within the southern branch of this system across the Southwest. As this occurs, strengthening mid/upper south/southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. At the surface, a weak low is expected across WV with a cold front extending south across the VA/NC Piedmont and the SC/GA coastal vicinity before arcing southwest across north FL and the eastern Gulf. Additionally, a sea breeze is expected to develop during the late morning into afternoon along the FL east coast. Modest boundary layer moisture from the upper 50s to mid 60s F (higher dewpoints with southward extent) will be in place ahead of the front. Across the southern Rockies/High Plains vicinity, lee troughing will modestly strengthen during the afternoon/evening. Richer moisture will remain well to the south, but dewpoints in the upper 40s to low 50s F are forecast. ...Florida... Cool temperatures aloft (-12 to -14 C at 500 mb) will support steep midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km. Strong heating and low to mid 60s F dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will foster moderate instability, with MLCAPE values topping out near 2000 J/kg. While deep-layer flow will remain modest, effective shear near 25 kt and vertically veering profiles will support at least transient storm organization. Low-level convergence along the sea breeze and the moderately unstable airmass should support isolated to scattered robust updrafts. The strongest storms could produce marginally severe hail and severe/damaging gusts. While low-level shear will remain weak, sufficient moisture and 0-3 km MLCAPE amid small but curved low-level hodographs suggests a brief tornado or two could develop on the sea breeze boundary. Uncertainty regarding storm coverage and longevity of strong updrafts precludes higher severe probabilities at this time. ...Coastal GA/SC to southwest PA... A modestly destabilizing airmass ahead of the surface cold front and within the warm conveyor ahead of the upper low should support thunderstorm development during the afternoon. Low-level flow will remain light, but increase with height to around 50 kt at 500 mb, supporting 25-35 kt effective shear across the region, and leading to elongated/straight hodographs. Meanwhile, cool temperatures aloft (-14 to -18 C at 500 mb) will support midlevel lapse rates of 6.5-7 C/km. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may produce marginally severe hail and gusty winds through early evening. ...New Mexico... Despite meager boundary layer moisture, cool temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and modest destabilization during the afternoon/evening. Shortwave impulses ejecting through increasing south/southwesterly mid/upper flow ahead of the Southwest upper trough/low, and low-level upslope flow will allow for scattered thunderstorm development by late afternoon into the afternoon. Strong vertical shear should support at least a few organized cells despite modest instability, and isolated hail and strong gusts will be possible. ..Leitman.. 05/03/2025 Read more

WW 0218 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0218 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening from parts of the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. A more isolated severe threat may develop across the Southeast, and also across parts of the Great Basin and far west Texas. ...Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and New England... Generally upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints are present along/east of the higher terrain of the Blue Ridge/Appalachians from parts of the Carolinas northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. Even with mid-level lapse rates remaining fairly modest, around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE is forecast to develop this afternoon in a narrow corridor across these regions with additional filtered daytime heating. Large-scale ascent associated with a slow-moving upper trough over the mid MS Valley will gradually overspread the destabilizing warm sector in the next few hours. This ascent, along with orographic lift over the higher terrain, should aid in the development of scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear should be present, which will support a mix of multicells and marginal supercells. Scattered damaging winds should be the main threat with the multiple clusters that develop as they spread northeastward through the evening, but some hail may also occur with any sustained supercell. Greater confidence exists in overall thunderstorm coverage and intensity across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, where the Slight Risk has been maintained with minimal changes. The tornado threat remains less clear across these regions, but some modest enhancement to the southwesterly low-level flow could aid in occasional low-level updraft rotation. ...Southeast... 12Z soundings across the central Gulf Coast states show that convection that occurred yesterday into the overnight/early morning hours generally stabilized the environment this morning. Widespread cloudiness evident in visible satellite imagery late this morning should tend to delay/hinder robust destabilization this afternoon along/ahead of the southeastward-advancing synoptic cold front, which lends considerable uncertainty to the overall intensity of renewed convection along/ahead of the front later today. Still, mid-level winds and related deep-layer shear are forecast to gradually strengthen through the afternoon/evening as the upper trough over the mid MS/lower OH Valley develops slowly eastward. This should support some threat for organized convection, and isolated damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can form. With continued concerns regarding the degree of instability developing this afternoon, confidence remains too low to include greater severe wind probabilities at this time. ...Great Basin... Modestly enhanced southerly mid-level flow will overspread parts of the western and northern Great Basin as an upper trough moves eastward over the western CONUS through the afternoon/evening. While boundary-layer moisture is expected to remain very limited, increasing mid-level moisture and diurnal destabilization should aid in weak MLCAPE developing by this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop and spread northward, with an isolated threat for severe winds given steepened low-level lapse rates and a very well mixed boundary layer. Small hail may also occur with the strongest cores. ...Far West Texas... Even though large-scale ascent should remain weak/nebulous across far west TX and vicinity today, isolated supercell development still appears possible in a modest post-frontal/low-level upslope flow regime. Both low-level winds and MLCAPE are expected to remain modest, but strengthening westerly winds with height in mid/upper levels should support around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear and some updraft organization. Based on latest guidance trends showing a supercell or two developing this afternoon/evening, have introduced a Marginal Risk for hail across parts of far west TX and vicinity. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 05/03/2025 Read more