MD 0698 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN WYOMING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 0698 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Areas affected...portions of eastern Wyoming into western South Dakota and far southwestern North Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 051916Z - 052045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A couple of severe gusts and perhaps an instance of hail may occur with the stronger storms this afternoon. The severe threat should be isolated, so a WW issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Multicellular high-based convection has developed along a cold front, atop a mixed boundary layer, characterized by 8-9.5 C/km 0-3 km lapse rates, over the SD/WY border. As the boundary layer further destabilizes, additional pulse-cellular and multicell storms should form along the cold front through the afternoon. Given a dry boundary layer, evaporative cooling via the stronger storm cores will promote some potential for severe gusts. With mid-level lapse rates also approaching 8 C/km amid marginal vertical wind shear, an instance of severe hail also cannot be ruled out. With the severe threat likely remaining isolated, a WW issuance is not anticipated. ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...CYS... LAT...LON 43050607 44340454 45140387 46640203 46930114 46480038 43660143 43610153 43110352 42790535 43050607 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EDWARDS PLATEAU TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible from the Edwards Plateau to Southeast Texas. ...Edwards Plateau to Southeast Texas... A stalled front will exist across southern Texas on Wednesday. Strong surface heating will lead to strong instability along this front in an environment featuring long, straight hodographs. Forcing will be somewhat nebulous along the front, but with uncapped forecast soundings and neutral to slightly falling heights along the frontal zone, expect at least isolated supercell development. Any supercells which develop will pose a threat for large to potentially very large hail. Storm coverage precludes higher probabilities at this time. If the front/composite outflow boundary remains onshore across the central Gulf Coast, the Marginal Risk may need to be expanded into this region. However, at this time, there is significant uncertainty how Day 2 convection will evolve which will impact the front/outflow location across Louisiana and southern Mississippi. ...Oklahoma... A weak cold front is forecast to move south through Oklahoma during the day Wednesday. Diurnal destabilization ahead of the front could provide ample instability for a few thunderstorms. Moisture quality along the front is uncertain which precludes a Marginal Risk at this time. However, if low to mid 60s dewpoints appear likely ahead of the front, sufficient instability would exist beneath the cold air aloft to support severe weather probabilities. ..Bentley.. 05/05/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Locally elevated fire weather conditions, particularly along leeward terrain features across far western Texas, are still expected Tuesday afternoon. However, widespread fire weather threat should be limited as surface pressure gradients weaken, flow aloft relaxes, and a mid-level trough translates eastward into the Southern Plains. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Williams.. 05/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears limited for Tuesday across the country. Residual dry/windy conditions are possible across parts of southwest TX and far southern NM as a westerly downslope flow regime becomes established with the eastward departure of a deepening surface low. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible, especially on the leeward side of more prominent terrain features where downslope winds and drying may be enhanced. While most solutions agree on the general flow regime, disparity in the wind speed forecast among deterministic models and ensemble guidance limits confidence in the potential for a sustained fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0223 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 223 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E FAY TO 25 NE RDU TO 20 NNE AVC TO 40 NW AVC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0697. ..GRAMS..05/05/25 ATTN...WFO...MHX...AKQ...RAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 223 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-015-041-049-061-065-069-073-079-083-091-101-103-107-117- 127-131-133-143-147-163-181-185-187-191-195-052040- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BERTIE CHOWAN CRAVEN DUPLIN EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN GATES GREENE HALIFAX HERTFORD JOHNSTON JONES LENOIR MARTIN NASH NORTHAMPTON ONSLOW PERQUIMANS PITT SAMPSON VANCE WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE WILSON VAC007-025-033-036-041-049-053-057-065-073-075-081-085-087-093- 095-097-101-103-109-115-119-127-133-135-145-147-149-159-175-181- 183-193-199-570-595-620-650-670-700-730-735-760-800-830- 052040- VA Read more

WW 0224 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 224 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GRAMS..05/05/25 ATTN...WFO...MLB...MFL... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 224 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC009-011-061-085-086-093-095-097-099-111-117-127-052040- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BREVARD BROWARD INDIAN RIVER MARTIN MIAMI-DADE OKEECHOBEE ORANGE OSCEOLA PALM BEACH ST. LUCIE SEMINOLE VOLUSIA AMZ550-552-555-610-630-650-651-052040- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM LAKE OKEECHOBEE BISCAYNE BAY Read more

MD 0693 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO
Mesoscale Discussion 0693 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Areas affected...portions of northwestern New Mexico Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 051747Z - 052015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A couple instances of severe hail may occur with the stronger storm cores through mid afternoon. A WW issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Multiple transient supercells have intensified over the past couple of hours immediately ahead of a closed upper low over the Desert Southwest. Both MRMS and KABX MESH data suggests that hail may be exceeding 1 inch in diameter with some of these storms. With a 500 mb speed max pivoting around the upper low and overspreading NM, effective bulk shear should exceed 40 kts (per latest mesoanalysis). ABX VAD shows an elongated straight hodograph, with unidirectional speed shear supporting continued supercells structures with a large hail threat this afternoon. However, moisture and overall buoyancy is scant, which should limit the overall severe threat. As such, a WW issuance is not anticipated. ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ... LAT...LON 34590726 35060772 35940812 36600797 36850775 36980747 36870682 36700665 36270642 35570597 35020613 34650640 34510688 34590726 MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0225 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0225 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS...AND CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE SABINE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Severe winds, large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes are possible. Additional isolated strong to severe storms capable of large hail and isolated wind damage are possible within parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic states. ...Synopsis... A mid-level blocking pattern will start to break down during the day 2 period with the mid-level low in the Southwest and the Ohio Valley starting to advance east-northeast. A weak surface low will linger near the eastern Great Lakes through the period on Tuesday. Broad low pressure will persist across Texas with a sharpening dryline during the afternoon across central Texas and a warm front extending from northeast Texas into northern Louisiana and southern Mississippi. ...Mid Atlantic to Northeast... Upper 50s to near 60s dewpoints will advect north across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and into the Northeast on Tuesday. This, combined with some surface heating and cool temperatures aloft beneath the upper low, should support weak to moderate instability. Scattered strong to severe storms are expected during the afternoon/early evening with a threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Central/Eastern Texas into LA and southern MS... A cluster of supercells or MCS will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across central Texas. This will continue to pose a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts through the morning as it moves along a warm front in the region. As the warm front continues to advect inland, destabilization will occur ahead of this ongoing convection. This will likely result in additional development along the warm front and also on the southern end of the ongoing activity. Strong shear will support supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. In addition, a few tornadoes are possible with any supercells which can remain rooted within the warm sector. In the wake of the morning activity in central Texas, surface heating is expected along the dryline in central Texas during the afternoon. It is unclear whether substantial recovery will occur for additional supercell development in this region during the afternoon/evening, but if supercells develop they will pose a threat for large to very large hail and severe wind gusts. ...Northwest Texas Vicinity... As morning convection/cloud cover clears out to the northeast, substantial heating may occur beneath the upper low for some low-topped supercell development along an occluded front which will extend from central Texas into northwest Texas. These storms will be capable of large hail and perhaps a brief tornado. ...South Texas... Isolated supercells are possible along the dryline Tuesday afternoon/evening. Extreme instability and very strong shear will support supercells capable of very large hail with any sustained supercells that form. However, only weak height falls during the afternoon and limited convergence along the dryline, as low-level flow veers across the warm sector, should keep supercells development isolated. The HRRR has more robust convective development with storms off higher terrain in northern Mexico and additional development in South Texas. Should this occur, higher hail/wind probabilities would be necessary given the environment. However, forcing does not support this scenario with height rises across South Texas and a low-level jet focused across Louisiana/southern Mississippi. ..Bentley.. 05/05/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z No changes necessary to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook as forecast remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Williams.. 05/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will persist across parts of the northern Plains with more localized fire weather potential expected across parts of southwest TX this afternoon. ...Red River Valley of the North... Southerly winds will continue across the northern Plains ahead of a southward advancing cold front for much of the day. Diurnal heating and mixing will promote a slight uptick in wind speeds across eastern ND and northwest MN by late afternoon. Most guidance suggests winds near 15 mph are likely, which should be sufficient to promote fire spread given afternoon RH minimums near 20% and receptive fine fuels already in place (as evidenced by fire activity over the past two days). ...Southwest Texas... 06 UTC surface observations and RTMA analyses show a developing dryline extending from south-central NM southeastward along the Rio Grande. This boundary is expected to mix northeast through late afternoon as southwesterly winds increase to 15-20 mph. The 00 UTC EPZ sounding sampled this dry air mass with near-surface RH values in the low teens. Similar RH minimums are expected this afternoon across southwest TX behind the dryline, which when combined with breezy winds, should promote elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. ERC values between the 80th to 90th percentile along the Rio Grande should support the fire threat. Although thunderstorm development is possible across the region, recent CAM guidance suggests convection will most likely remain east of the Elevated risk area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC...AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across southeast New Mexico into Texas this afternoon into tonight. Scattered large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats, though a few tornadoes are also possible. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms should occur across the upper Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic and the eastern Florida Peninsula this afternoon and evening. ...Southern Plains... Generally elevated convection is ongoing late this morning from portions of northwest to south-central TX. This activity is largely being driven by low-level warm/moist advection atop a surface front. Given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and strong effective bulk shear, some of these thunderstorms should continue to pose a threat for mainly isolated large hail in the short term. If the convection across south-central TX can persist through the afternoon, it will have some chance to become surface based and pose a greater threat for hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado with eastward extent towards the Gulf Coast, as the surface front attempts to lift slowly northward. Severe probabilities have been expanded eastward some to account for this potential. Farther west, a closed mid/upper-level low will move slowly eastward across the Southwest through the period. Difluent flow aloft will encourage weak lee cyclogenesis across far west TX through this evening, and low-level moisture will continue to stream northwestward along/south of a front across south-central/west TX into southeast NM. Moderate to locally strong instability will likely be in place by late afternoon along/east of a surface dryline across far west TX, and south of the front. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding the timing of robust convective initiation across the southern High Plains, as stronger mid-level height falls/ascent attendant to the upper low begin to overspread the warm sector mainly this evening. Even with this continued uncertainty, it appears likely that several supercells will erupt by no later than this evening across southeast NM into parts of west and south-central TX. Given a rather favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment, along with steep mid-level lapse rates, very large hail will be a concern with these supercells. A strengthening southeasterly low-level jet through the evening will also act to increase low-level shear and provide enhanced boundary-layer hodograph curvature/elongation. The threat for a few tornadoes with any sustained supercell remains apparent. The potential for convection to grow upscale into one or more clusters this evening/overnight remains uncertain. Still, some threat for severe winds will exist with any supercell or clusters. Based on latest guidance trends, the Enhanced Risk has been expanded southeastward towards Del Rio. ...Upper Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic to Eastern North Carolina... A closed upper low will remain centered over the OH Valley today. A mid-level shortwave trough and attendant jet is forecast to move northward from the Carolinas to the southern Mid-Atlantic through the afternoon and evening. Large-scale ascent will likely encourage scattered thunderstorms to form generally along and west of a surface front that arcs from southeast VA to western/central PA. Daytime heating of a modestly moist low-level airmass and cool temperatures aloft associated with the upper low should aid in the development of around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid afternoon across parts of the upper OH Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic and eastern NC. Even though low-level flow will tend to remain fairly muted, southeasterly winds near the surface are forecast to gradually veer to southerly and strengthen with height at mid/upper levels. This should support sufficient deep-layer shear for organized convection. A mix of multicells and supercells are anticipated, with a threat for scattered large hail and damaging winds as they spread northward through the afternoon and evening. Based on latest observational and guidance trends, some westward and southward expansions have been made to the Slight Risk across these regions. ...Florida Peninsula... Much of the FL Peninsula will remain displaced south of the stronger mid/upper-level flow and forcing associated with an upper low over the OH Valley today. Still, seasonably cool temperatures aloft combined with modest enhancement to the mid-level westerlies should foster adequate instability and deep-layer shear to support modest updraft organization. Thunderstorms are expected to preferentially favor the Atlantic Coast sea breeze today, with a stalled front over the central FL Peninsula also serving as a potential low-level forcing mechanism. Any convection which does develop may pose a threat for severe hail and damaging winds before it moves offshore by early evening. Given increased confidence in scattered to numerous thunderstorms, along with long/straight hodographs aloft, a Slight Risk for hail has been added for parts of the eastern FL Peninsula with this update. ...Western Dakotas... Even with low-level moisture remaining limited across the northern Plains today, weak instability should develop by this afternoon in a narrow zone focused along a front extending across the western Dakotas. Widely scattered thunderstorms should initiate along this boundary by this afternoon as glancing large-scale ascent from a shortwave trough over the Canadian Prairie provinces overspreads the region. A well-mixed boundary layer and steep lapse rates should promote efficient momentum transfer with downdrafts, and isolated strong to severe winds and perhaps some hail may occur with pulse-type and loosely organized clusters. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 05/05/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon May 5 16:07:02 UTC 2025.

MD 0690 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN NC AND SOUTHERN VA
Mesoscale Discussion 0690 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Areas affected...central/eastern NC and southern VA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 051605Z - 051800Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...At least isolated severe hail and damaging winds will be possible this afternoon along/ahead of a weak front from central/eastern North Carolina into southern Virginia. Monitoring for a potential severe thunderstorm watch. DISCUSSION...A compact mid-level jetlet, curling around the southeast quadrant of the broader OH Valley low and attendant trough, will support potential for occasional mid-level updraft rotation along a weak north/south-oriented baroclinic zone across central NC into south-central VA. Initial storm development is underway along this boundary, with more isolated activity expected near the southern NC coast. With eastern extent, hodograph structure will be less favorable as it progressively becomes more of a J to reverse-L shape. But this weakness in the hodograph may be compensated by greater boundary-layer heating and MLCAPE with eastern extent. Overall setup is expected to support north-northeastward moving storms with a mixed severe hail/damaging wind threat. ..Grams/Gleason.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK... LAT...LON 35137940 36627911 37867899 38317880 38367782 37697710 37037701 36087724 35297715 34927698 34697723 34447773 34377814 34877908 35137940 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon May 5 13:33:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across eastern New Mexico and west/central Texas this afternoon into tonight. Scattered large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats, though a couple of tornadoes also are possible. Additional strong to severe storms are possible across the eastern Florida Peninsula and the Mid-Atlantic States and upper Ohio River Valley. ...Eastern New Mexico and West/central Texas... Upper-level diffluence over the southern High Plains will continue to promote gradual surface pressure falls and a southeasterly return flow regime across far eastern New Mexico and western Texas today, beneath cooling temperatures aloft and steepening mid-level lapse rates. Thunderstorm development is expected initially within a warm advection regime across south-central Texas by early afternoon with additional and more intense storm development by late afternoon across the Permian Basin in closer proximity to a deepening lee trough/sharpening dryline. Deep-layer wind shear on the order of 50 kt will support supercells with an attendant threat for large hail. By early evening, a shortwave trough embedded within the mean flow will overspread west/southwest Texas. Scattered supercell development is expected by evening across the Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico. Given the increasingly favorable convective environment, a few long-lived supercells are expected, and will be capable large to very large (2+ inch) hail and perhaps a couple of tornadoes. Upscale growth into one or more clusters appears likely heading into the overnight hours as lift spreads northeast into northwest and central Texas. ...Upper Ohio River Valley and Mid-Atlantic/North Carolina... A shortwave trough is expected to pivot toward the region through the afternoon/evening, and generally will be favorably timed with the diurnal heating cycle. The combination of cold temperatures aloft in proximity to the upper low and rich low-level moisture will limit capping and promote thunderstorm initiation along the boundary by early afternoon from the DelMarVa region to eastern North Carolina. Farther northwest, forcing for ascent and steep lapse rates will also promote thunderstorm development across West Virginia and eastern Ohio by late afternoon. Across both regions, 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and elongated, nearly straight hodographs should promote organized cells, potentially including a few supercells, capable of large hail and damaging winds as storms spread north-northeastward. ...Eastern Florida Peninsula... Under the influence of relatively cool temperatures aloft and moderately strong mid-level winds, heating of the boundary layer will influence thunderstorm development this afternoon as confluence along sea-breeze boundaries increases. Scattered thunderstorms are expected, and 30-40 knot mid-level flow should promote a few organized cells capable of producing large hail and locally damaging wind gusts. ...Western Dakotas... At least widely scattered thunderstorms should develop and intensify into mid/late afternoon near and north of the Black Hills along the boundary extending north-northeastward into southwest/west-central North Dakota. A well-mixed boundary layer and steep lapse rates could support pulse-type thunderstorms and an outflow-driven loose cluster of storms capable of strong/locally severe winds and possibly some hail. ..Guyer/Jewell.. 05/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across eastern New Mexico and west/central Texas this afternoon into tonight. Scattered large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats, though a couple of tornadoes also are possible. Additional strong to severe storms are possible across the eastern Florida Peninsula and the Mid-Atlantic States and upper Ohio River Valley. ...Eastern New Mexico and West/central Texas... Upper-level diffluence over the southern High Plains will continue to promote gradual surface pressure falls and a southeasterly return flow regime across far eastern New Mexico and western Texas today, beneath cooling temperatures aloft and steepening mid-level lapse rates. Thunderstorm development is expected initially within a warm advection regime across south-central Texas by early afternoon with additional and more intense storm development by late afternoon across the Permian Basin in closer proximity to a deepening lee trough/sharpening dryline. Deep-layer wind shear on the order of 50 kt will support supercells with an attendant threat for large hail. By early evening, a shortwave trough embedded within the mean flow will overspread west/southwest Texas. Scattered supercell development is expected by evening across the Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico. Given the increasingly favorable convective environment, a few long-lived supercells are expected, and will be capable large to very large (2+ inch) hail and perhaps a couple of tornadoes. Upscale growth into one or more clusters appears likely heading into the overnight hours as lift spreads northeast into northwest and central Texas. ...Upper Ohio River Valley and Mid-Atlantic/North Carolina... A shortwave trough is expected to pivot toward the region through the afternoon/evening, and generally will be favorably timed with the diurnal heating cycle. The combination of cold temperatures aloft in proximity to the upper low and rich low-level moisture will limit capping and promote thunderstorm initiation along the boundary by early afternoon from the DelMarVa region to eastern North Carolina. Farther northwest, forcing for ascent and steep lapse rates will also promote thunderstorm development across West Virginia and eastern Ohio by late afternoon. Across both regions, 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and elongated, nearly straight hodographs should promote organized cells, potentially including a few supercells, capable of large hail and damaging winds as storms spread north-northeastward. ...Eastern Florida Peninsula... Under the influence of relatively cool temperatures aloft and moderately strong mid-level winds, heating of the boundary layer will influence thunderstorm development this afternoon as confluence along sea-breeze boundaries increases. Scattered thunderstorms are expected, and 30-40 knot mid-level flow should promote a few organized cells capable of producing large hail and locally damaging wind gusts. ...Western Dakotas... At least widely scattered thunderstorms should develop and intensify into mid/late afternoon near and north of the Black Hills along the boundary extending north-northeastward into southwest/west-central North Dakota. A well-mixed boundary layer and steep lapse rates could support pulse-type thunderstorms and an outflow-driven loose cluster of storms capable of strong/locally severe winds and possibly some hail. ..Guyer/Jewell.. 05/05/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... From Thursday into the weekend, the upper-level pattern will be characterized by an elongated trough in the East and a building ridge in the West. With this weakly blocking pattern, slow progression of these features can be expected. With the trough in the East, moisture will be present south of a surface boundary across parts of the Southeast and eventually into the Florida Peninsula. Though organized severe potential appears low with this activity, enough remnant mid-level flow could promote localized strong storms. By next week, models currently suggest some troughing is possible in the West. With preceding days of offshore winds across the western Gulf, moisture quality ahead of any potential trough is likely to be low. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for organized severe weather is expected to be low on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An elongated upper low within the Southwest into the southern Plains will weaken as it slowly moves eastward on Wednesday. The strongest, but decreasing with time, mid-level winds will reside along the Gulf Coast. At the surface, weak boundaries are expected to extend from the lower Mississippi Valley into South Texas. At the start of the period, convection is expected to be in portions of the lower Mississippi Valley. This activity should be moving into a stable airmass and does not currently appear that it will pose an organized severe threat. Models differ in the expansiveness of this convective activity. The NAM in particular shows outflow stalling in southern Louisiana into the Upper Texas Coast. If this were to occur, a very moist airmass and lingering moderate mid-level flow could allow for a zone of strong to severe storms near the outflow boundary. The ECMWF/GFS push outflow offshore. There is additional potential for strong to severe storms in South Texas. However, some capping will be in place and mid-level heights will be neutral. Confidence in organized severe weather remains too low for probabilities at this time. ..Wendt.. 05/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for organized severe weather is expected to be low on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An elongated upper low within the Southwest into the southern Plains will weaken as it slowly moves eastward on Wednesday. The strongest, but decreasing with time, mid-level winds will reside along the Gulf Coast. At the surface, weak boundaries are expected to extend from the lower Mississippi Valley into South Texas. At the start of the period, convection is expected to be in portions of the lower Mississippi Valley. This activity should be moving into a stable airmass and does not currently appear that it will pose an organized severe threat. Models differ in the expansiveness of this convective activity. The NAM in particular shows outflow stalling in southern Louisiana into the Upper Texas Coast. If this were to occur, a very moist airmass and lingering moderate mid-level flow could allow for a zone of strong to severe storms near the outflow boundary. The ECMWF/GFS push outflow offshore. There is additional potential for strong to severe storms in South Texas. However, some capping will be in place and mid-level heights will be neutral. Confidence in organized severe weather remains too low for probabilities at this time. ..Wendt.. 05/05/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears limited for Tuesday across the country. Residual dry/windy conditions are possible across parts of southwest TX and far southern NM as a westerly downslope flow regime becomes established with the eastward departure of a deepening surface low. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible, especially on the leeward side of more prominent terrain features where downslope winds and drying may be enhanced. While most solutions agree on the general flow regime, disparity in the wind speed forecast among deterministic models and ensemble guidance limits confidence in the potential for a sustained fire weather threat. ..Moore.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears limited for Tuesday across the country. Residual dry/windy conditions are possible across parts of southwest TX and far southern NM as a westerly downslope flow regime becomes established with the eastward departure of a deepening surface low. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible, especially on the leeward side of more prominent terrain features where downslope winds and drying may be enhanced. While most solutions agree on the general flow regime, disparity in the wind speed forecast among deterministic models and ensemble guidance limits confidence in the potential for a sustained fire weather threat. ..Moore.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more