SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025
Valid 061630Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO WESTERN LOUISIANA...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected today into this evening,
especially across parts of central into east/southeast Texas and
Louisiana. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes,
potentially a few of which may be strong, should occur. Severe
thunderstorms may also develop this afternoon across parts of the
northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast and the Florida Peninsula.
...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley...
Multiple supercells are ongoing late this morning across central TX
along/near a surface warm front. As an upper trough/low continues to
eject eastward over the southern Plains today, a rather favorable
environment will be in place this afternoon and evening for intense
severe thunderstorms across central/east-central TX into LA. Even
with continued cloudiness across the warm sector, filtered daytime
heating and the presence of modestly steep mid-level lapse rates
will support moderate to locally strong instability given the
rich/moist low-level airmass present. Ample low-level and deep-layer
shear will foster continued updraft organization, including the
potential for several supercells. The greatest potential for
tornadoes, some of which could be strong, will likely remain focused
along/near the warm front, which will attempt to lift northward some
across east TX and LA through the afternoon and evening. Otherwise,
large hail will be possible north of the warm front with elevated
supercells. A severe/damaging wind threat will exist with any
clusters that can become established.
The tornado and damaging wind threat will probably continue through
the evening and perhaps overnight hours across parts of the lower MS
Valley, given sufficient instability and strong low-level shear
along/near the warm front. Have therefore adjusted the Slight Risk
eastward some across this region. Have also trimmed the Slight Risk
from the southern High Plains, as low-topped convection closer to
the cold-core upper low will probably only have access to weak
instability this afternoon/evening. Still, this activity may have an
isolated hail/wind threat, and the Marginal Risk has been maintained
across the southern High Plains for this potential.
...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast...
Even in the presence of some cloud cover, thunderstorm development
and intensification will occur this afternoon across parts of the
northern Mid-Atlantic and vicinity in a modestly moist/unstable air
mass preceding an upper low over the upper OH Valley. Relatively
steep lapse rates aloft and moderate to strong deep-layer
south-southwesterly flow should support organized convection capable
of severe hail and damaging winds. The best severe threat should
remain focused across parts of eastern PA into NJ and southern NY,
where the Slight Risk has been maintained with only small
expansions.
...Florida...
Upper ridging should be more influential today over FL compared to
yesterday. Still, cool temperatures aloft and moderate instability
could support occasionally strong to severe thunderstorms capable of
producing isolated hail and/or damaging winds this afternoon across
parts of the FL Peninsula along/south of a remnant front.
..Gleason/Squitieri.. 05/06/2025
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