WW 233 SEVERE TSTM NJ NY PA 061705Z - 070000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 233 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 105 PM EDT Tue May 6 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western and Northern New Jersey South-Central New York Eatsern Pennsylvania * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 105 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should continue to increase in coverage and intensity this afternoon as they move generally northward. The strongest thunderstorms could produce hail up to 1-1.5 inches in diameter and damaging winds with peak gusts to 60-70 mph. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles north northeast of Binghamton NY to 35 miles west of Philadelphia PA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 231...WW 232... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 19030. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0234 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 234 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW LFK TO 25 E SHV TO 35 SSW ELD. ..KERR..05/06/25 ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 234 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC001-003-009-011-013-019-021-027-031-039-043-049-053-055-059- 061-069-073-079-081-085-097-111-115-127-062240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ACADIA ALLEN AVOYELLES BEAUREGARD BIENVILLE CALCASIEU CALDWELL CLAIBORNE DE SOTO EVANGELINE GRANT JACKSON JEFFERSON DAVIS LAFAYETTE LA SALLE LINCOLN NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA RAPIDES RED RIVER SABINE ST. LANDRY UNION VERNON WINN TXC005-199-241-245-347-351-361-403-405-419-457-062240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANGELINA HARDIN JASPER JEFFERSON NACOGDOCHES NEWTON ORANGE SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE Read more

WW 234 TORNADO LA TX 061835Z - 070200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 234 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 135 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Louisiana East Texas * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 135 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms with embedded supercells will spread eastward over east Texas into Louisiana this afternoon and evening. Main threats will be tornadoes and severe/damaging winds. A strong tornado or two will be possible with any supercell that can persist along/ahead of the ongoing thunderstorms. Isolated large hail may also occur. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles north and south of a line from 10 miles west southwest of Lufkin TX to 25 miles northeast of Alexandria LA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 231...WW 232...WW 233... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Gleason Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0417 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the D3/Thursday through D8/Tuesday period. A broad upper-low will linger across the southeastern US as heights rise with an upper-level ridge building in the western US. The building upper-level high in the west will bring warming and drying conditions but generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. Some breezy/dry conditions may overlap as a shortwave traverses the northern periphery of the ridge across Montana/North Dakota on D3/Thursday. Late in period D6/Sunday into D8/Tuesday, a trough is progged to develop across the western Pacific. Increased southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Great Basin region, bringing likely overlap of wind/dry conditions ahead of potential for more precipitation. Fuels in this region are generally below seasonal averages for dryness, owing to recent scattered shower and thunderstorm activity. Though some drying is forecast in ERC modeling, it is unlikely fuels will be overly receptive for fire spread, leading to low confidence in including any areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 05/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0417 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the D3/Thursday through D8/Tuesday period. A broad upper-low will linger across the southeastern US as heights rise with an upper-level ridge building in the western US. The building upper-level high in the west will bring warming and drying conditions but generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. Some breezy/dry conditions may overlap as a shortwave traverses the northern periphery of the ridge across Montana/North Dakota on D3/Thursday. Late in period D6/Sunday into D8/Tuesday, a trough is progged to develop across the western Pacific. Increased southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Great Basin region, bringing likely overlap of wind/dry conditions ahead of potential for more precipitation. Fuels in this region are generally below seasonal averages for dryness, owing to recent scattered shower and thunderstorm activity. Though some drying is forecast in ERC modeling, it is unlikely fuels will be overly receptive for fire spread, leading to low confidence in including any areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 05/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0231 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 231 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S BAZ TO 35 E AUS TO 40 WNW LFK. ..WEINMAN..05/06/25 ATTN...WFO...HGX...EWX...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 231 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC015-021-041-051-089-123-149-157-177-185-201-225-285-287-291- 313-339-373-407-455-471-473-477-481-062140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUSTIN BASTROP BRAZOS BURLESON COLORADO DEWITT FAYETTE FORT BEND GONZALES GRIMES HARRIS HOUSTON LAVACA LEE LIBERTY MADISON MONTGOMERY POLK SAN JACINTO TRINITY WALKER WALLER WASHINGTON WHARTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0231 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 231 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S BAZ TO 35 E AUS TO 40 WNW LFK. ..WEINMAN..05/06/25 ATTN...WFO...HGX...EWX...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 231 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC015-021-041-051-089-123-149-157-177-185-201-225-285-287-291- 313-339-373-407-455-471-473-477-481-062140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUSTIN BASTROP BRAZOS BURLESON COLORADO DEWITT FAYETTE FORT BEND GONZALES GRIMES HARRIS HOUSTON LAVACA LEE LIBERTY MADISON MONTGOMERY POLK SAN JACINTO TRINITY WALKER WALLER WASHINGTON WHARTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 231 TORNADO TX 061315Z - 062100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 231 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 815 AM CDT Tue May 6 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and East/Southeast Texas * Effective this Tuesday morning and afternoon from 815 AM until 400 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Supercell thunderstorms are expected to develop near a warm front across the region with other storms related to an eastward-moving cluster of storms across central Texas early today. Tornado potential is apparent, including the possibility of strong tornadoes. Damaging winds and large hail are also expected. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 65 miles north northwest of San Antonio TX to 35 miles southeast of Huntsville TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 230... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 24025. ...Guyer Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today into this evening, especially across parts of east/southeast Texas and Louisiana. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, potentially a few of which may be strong, are expected. Severe thunderstorms are also expected this afternoon across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast and the Florida Peninsula. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was trimming severe probabilities behind a squall line tracking eastward across parts of east/southeast Texas. A separate area of severe hail/wind probabilities were maintained and expanded slightly over the southern High Plains -- closer to the cold-core upper low. See MCD #720 for details on the severe risk here. Farther south, guidance continues to suggest an uptick in severe-thunderstorm potential across south TX during the overnight hours. While steep lapse rates atop rich boundary-layer moisture would conditionally support a couple supercells capable of producing large hail and severe winds, the overall threat appears too conditional for higher probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025/ ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Multiple supercells are ongoing late this morning across central TX along/near a surface warm front. As an upper trough/low continues to eject eastward over the southern Plains today, a rather favorable environment will be in place this afternoon and evening for intense severe thunderstorms across central/east-central TX into LA. Even with continued cloudiness across the warm sector, filtered daytime heating and the presence of modestly steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate to locally strong instability given the rich/moist low-level airmass present. Ample low-level and deep-layer shear will foster continued updraft organization, including the potential for several supercells. The greatest potential for tornadoes, some of which could be strong, will likely remain focused along/near the warm front, which will attempt to lift northward some across east TX and LA through the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, large hail will be possible north of the warm front with elevated supercells. A severe/damaging wind threat will exist with any clusters that can become established. The tornado and damaging wind threat will probably continue through the evening and perhaps overnight hours across parts of the lower MS Valley, given sufficient instability and strong low-level shear along/near the warm front. Have therefore adjusted the Slight Risk eastward some across this region. Have also trimmed the Slight Risk from the southern High Plains, as low-topped convection closer to the cold-core upper low will probably only have access to weak instability this afternoon/evening. Still, this activity may have an isolated hail/wind threat, and the Marginal Risk has been maintained across the southern High Plains for this potential. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... Even in the presence of some cloud cover, thunderstorm development and intensification will occur this afternoon across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic and vicinity in a modestly moist/unstable air mass preceding an upper low over the upper OH Valley. Relatively steep lapse rates aloft and moderate to strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow should support organized convection capable of severe hail and damaging winds. The best severe threat should remain focused across parts of eastern PA into NJ and southern NY, where the Slight Risk has been maintained with only small expansions. ...Florida... Upper ridging should be more influential today over FL compared to yesterday. Still, cool temperatures aloft and moderate instability could support occasionally strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing isolated hail and/or damaging winds this afternoon across parts of the FL Peninsula along/south of a remnant front. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A BROAD PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CONUS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds are possible, mainly Thursday afternoon and evening, from southern Texas across the Southeast and into the Lower Mid-Atlantic States. ...Synopsis... A trio of primary shortwave impulses will aid in placement of a large-scale trough from QC to the Rio Grande on Thursday afternoon. This will support a broad swath of 30-50 kt 500-mb southwesterlies across much of the southern to eastern states. This will occur beneath upper-level jetlets, centered on the Lower Mid-Atlantic States to the central/southern Appalachians, and trailing into central/east TX. Attendant surface reflection will be weak, with minor lows in the Mid-South and VA. A surface ridge should nose down the southern High Plains and across much of the Rio Grande. ...Rio Grande Valley... The lower-amplitude impulse within the base of the broad trough may dampen somewhat. But most guidance suggests sufficient large-scale ascent will exist for thunderstorms from the Trans-Pecos moving/developing southeastward along the Rio Grande Thursday afternoon and evening. The aforementioned surface ridging will temper buoyancy northwest of Deep South TX. But a sufficient combo of CAPE/shear should exist for at least isolated large hail and strong gusts. ...Mid/Deep South... Convective signal is strongest near the Mid-South shortwave impulse during peak heating and along the central Gulf Coast during the morning. The impact of the early-day activity yields a more nebulous evolution to strong/severe storms north and east of it across the Deep South. Where more robust diurnal heating can occur, the favorable deep-layer flow regime will offer a threat of both severe hail and damaging wind. ...South Atlantic Coast... A mix of isolated severe hail and damaging winds will be possible, especially along the sea breeze. A moderate combination of mid-level westerlies and MLCAPE should foster a few weakly rotating cells/clusters Thursday afternoon. ...Lower Mid-Atlantic... A well-mixed boundary layer seems plausible by Thursday afternoon amid limited low-level moisture north of the Carolinas. Strong mid/upper-level speed shear and weak mid-level height falls should support small hail in at least isolated storms, along and east of the Appalachians. This will likely enhance downburst potential and isolated damaging winds should be the main hazard. ..Grams.. 05/06/2025 Read more

WW 0232 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 232 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE CRS TO 45 SSW TYR TO 15 SSE TYR TO 20 ENE TYR TO 30 N GGG TO 5 S TXK. ..BENTLEY..05/06/25 ATTN...WFO...FWD...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 232 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC067-315-343-459-062040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CASS MARION MORRIS UPSHUR THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more info. ..Thornton.. 05/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0107 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be minimal for Wednesday across the country. An upper low currently over the Southwest will meander over the south-central U.S. for the next 48 hours. This will maintain widespread rain chances for much of the Southwest, Plains, and Southeast. Across the northern Plains and upper MS River Valley, breezy conditions are possible behind a cold front, but an influx of cooler air will limit fire concerns. Dry conditions will likely persist across southwest TX where several days of preceding dry/windy conditions will likely cure fine fuels, but weak gradient winds will limit the fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0718 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR EAST TEXAS AND MUCH OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
Mesoscale Discussion 0718 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Areas affected...East Texas and much of central Louisiana. Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 061819Z - 061945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...A downstream tornado watch will likely be needed soon for portions of East Texas and much of central Louisiana. DISCUSSION...A line of storms has developed across central Texas. Embedded supercells within this line have shown persistent circulation with at least one confirmed tornado thus far. East of this line, the boundary layer continues to destabilize as a warm front lifts north. This will support a continued threat through the afternoon and into the evening along and south of the warm front. Favorable low-level shear is present ahead of this line across East Texas where SPC mesoanalysis shows a peak STP of 3 to 4. Expect this environment to continue to expand north and east ahead of this line with a persistent threat for primarily severe wind gusts and tornadoes. The higher end tornado threat hinges primarily on whether supercells can develop ahead of the ongoing linear activity. If this occurs, a greater strong tornado threat would exist this afternoon/evening. However, it is unclear whether this will occur. Storm development seems closely tied to the warm front/cold front and temperatures along the warm front across east Texas and west-central Louisiana are only in the low to mid 70s. Warmer temperatures have developed farther south across southeast Texas, but without a focused boundary for development, new development within this environment may be challenging. Nonetheless, even if the more discrete supercell threat does not materialize, confidence is high for a line of storms to move across East Texas and central Louisiana within a moderately unstable and strongly sheared environment. This will necessitate a tornado watch shortly. In addition, based on the current warm front location and expected northward movement, a few of the southern counties within severe thunderstorm watch 232 may also need to be replaced by a tornado watch with the issuance of this downstream watch. ..Bentley/Gleason.. 05/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX... LAT...LON 30339448 30749464 31829471 32099387 32389302 32229220 31799210 31379207 30769209 30449227 30299380 30339448 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 0719 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 233... FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK
Mesoscale Discussion 0719 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Areas affected...portions of eastern Pennsylvania into New Jersey and southern New York Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 233... Valid 061843Z - 062015Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 233 continues. SUMMARY...Strong, damaging wind gusts and hail remain the primary threats across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 233 through the afternoon. DISCUSSION...Ample diurnal heating has supporting boundary layer destabilization and subsequent development of multiple bands of thunderstorms ahead of a pronounced upper trough. Damaging gusts and hail (some stones approaching 1 inch in diameter) have been reported with some of the stronger storms. Given the presence of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE and 40+ kts of effective bulk shear preceding ongoing storms, additional strong wind gusts and instances of hail remain possible through the afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 05/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 39747698 40447694 41847679 42467662 42717597 42767521 42317466 41007440 40217468 39737530 39617595 39747698 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0234 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0234 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0231 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 231 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E HDO TO 25 NW BAZ TO 10 N AUS TO 35 SE TPL TO 35 NNW CLL TO 40 SSE CRS. ..BENTLEY..05/06/25 ATTN...WFO...HGX...EWX...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 231 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC015-021-041-051-055-089-091-123-149-157-177-185-187-201-209- 225-285-287-289-291-313-331-339-373-395-407-453-455-471-473-477- 481-491-061940- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUSTIN BASTROP BRAZOS BURLESON CALDWELL COLORADO COMAL DEWITT FAYETTE FORT BEND GONZALES GRIMES GUADALUPE HARRIS HAYS HOUSTON LAVACA LEE LEON LIBERTY MADISON MILAM MONTGOMERY POLK ROBERTSON SAN JACINTO TRAVIS TRINITY WALKER WALLER WASHINGTON WHARTON WILLIAMSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0232 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 232 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S CRS TO 15 ESE CRS TO 30 W TYR TO 25 NW TYR TO 40 N TYR TO 30 S PRX TO 5 NNW PRX. ..BENTLEY..05/06/25 ATTN...WFO...FWD...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 232 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC001-063-067-073-159-161-183-203-213-223-315-343-347-365-401- 419-423-449-459-467-499-061940- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON CAMP CASS CHEROKEE FRANKLIN FREESTONE GREGG HARRISON HENDERSON HOPKINS MARION MORRIS NACOGDOCHES PANOLA RUSK SHELBY SMITH TITUS UPSHUR VAN ZANDT WOOD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 232 SEVERE TSTM TX 061450Z - 062100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 232 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 950 AM CDT Tue May 6 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of North-central and Northeast Texas * Effective this Tuesday morning and afternoon from 950 AM until 400 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Mainly elevated supercells should pose some threat for large hail up to 1-2 inches in diameter. Some increase in the severe/damaging wind threat may occur by this afternoon along/near a warm front across east-central TX, where a tornado or two will also be possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles south southwest of Fort Worth TX to 35 miles east of Longview TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 230...WW 231... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 21035. ...Gleason Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF SOUTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the southern Great Plains to coastal Louisiana on Wednesday. Large hail should be the main hazard, which appears most likely in parts of south Texas during the late afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... Primary mid/upper low near the KS/OK border will drift east and gradually dampen through the period. A minor surface wave may accompany this low with a dryline extending south into south-central TX. A broad MCS on D1 should yield large-scale convective outflow near the upper TX to LA coast at 12Z Wednesday. ...South TX to coastal LA... An extensive swath of convection will likely be ongoing across portions of the northwest to north-central Gulf Coast. Limited real estate may exist for morning severe, but could possibly affect coastal LA where a low-probability wind/tornado threat has been added. Afternoon to early evening thunderstorm redevelopment along and north of the large-scale outflow will be dependent on its spatial placement, as large-scale ascent wanes amid neutral mid-level height change. A few supercells seem most probable where the boundary intersects with the south-central TX dryline. Ample buoyancy to the south of the outflow, along with strong effective shear north of it, should yield a corridor of large hail threat initially. Mid/upper flow tending to orient along the boundary will support some clustering into the evening. This should limit coverage of very large hail potential, with a mixed isolated severe hail/wind threat across the coastal plain. ...Central/eastern OK into north TX... Despite a fairly weak surface reflection and attendant convergence, 12Z CAM guidance is consistent with scattered storms developing southeast of the mid/upper low in OK, and isolated storms into north TX along the dryline. Guidance more broadly varies with degree of destabilization/residual boundary-layer moisture in the wake of extensive convective overturning on D1. Still, with steep mid-level lapse rates accompanying the low and greater boundary-layer heating in its vicinity tomorrow compared to today, a threat for at least isolated severe hail and localized strong gusts is apparent. For now, have upgraded to a level 1/MRGL hail-driven risk. ..Grams.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF SOUTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the southern Great Plains to coastal Louisiana on Wednesday. Large hail should be the main hazard, which appears most likely in parts of south Texas during the late afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... Primary mid/upper low near the KS/OK border will drift east and gradually dampen through the period. A minor surface wave may accompany this low with a dryline extending south into south-central TX. A broad MCS on D1 should yield large-scale convective outflow near the upper TX to LA coast at 12Z Wednesday. ...South TX to coastal LA... An extensive swath of convection will likely be ongoing across portions of the northwest to north-central Gulf Coast. Limited real estate may exist for morning severe, but could possibly affect coastal LA where a low-probability wind/tornado threat has been added. Afternoon to early evening thunderstorm redevelopment along and north of the large-scale outflow will be dependent on its spatial placement, as large-scale ascent wanes amid neutral mid-level height change. A few supercells seem most probable where the boundary intersects with the south-central TX dryline. Ample buoyancy to the south of the outflow, along with strong effective shear north of it, should yield a corridor of large hail threat initially. Mid/upper flow tending to orient along the boundary will support some clustering into the evening. This should limit coverage of very large hail potential, with a mixed isolated severe hail/wind threat across the coastal plain. ...Central/eastern OK into north TX... Despite a fairly weak surface reflection and attendant convergence, 12Z CAM guidance is consistent with scattered storms developing southeast of the mid/upper low in OK, and isolated storms into north TX along the dryline. Guidance more broadly varies with degree of destabilization/residual boundary-layer moisture in the wake of extensive convective overturning on D1. Still, with steep mid-level lapse rates accompanying the low and greater boundary-layer heating in its vicinity tomorrow compared to today, a threat for at least isolated severe hail and localized strong gusts is apparent. For now, have upgraded to a level 1/MRGL hail-driven risk. ..Grams.. 05/06/2025 Read more