SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...TENNESSEE VALLEY...SOUTHEAST AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms with severe gusts and large hail are expected today over parts of the southern Appalachians, Tennessee Valley and Southeast. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. Severe gusts and large hail will also be possible in parts of the Rio Grande Valley. ...Southern Appalachians/Tennessee Valley/Southeast... A positively-tilted mid-level trough, and an associated cold front, will move through the Ohio and mid Mississippi Valleys today. Surface dewpoints to the south of the front will range from the mid 50s to the mid 60s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, moderate instability is expected to develop across much of the moist airmass. A cluster of organized thunderstorms is forecast to develop in the afternoon from western and central Kentucky into middle Tennessee, and eastward into the southern Appalachians. This large cluster will move southeastward into northern Alabama, northern Georgia and the western Carolinas by late afternoon. RAP forecast soundings along the zone of maximum instability have 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 45 knot range, with 850 to 500 mb lapse rates near 7 C/km. This environment will support the development of supercells with large hail, in areas where the storms can remain semi-discrete. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more intense supercells. In addition, forecast soundings show very steep low-level lapse exceeding 8 C/km, which will be supportive of damaging wind gusts. Further to the south from parts of the Southeast into northern Florida, moderate instability is expected to develop during the afternoon in an airmass with surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F. In spite of weaker large-scale ascent, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in areas that heat up the most. 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 35 knot range and steep low-level lapse rates could support a marginal threat for severe gusts and hail during the mid to late afternoon. ...Rio Grande Valley... A mid-level trough will move through northern Mexico today, as flow remains from the west across the southern Plains. Ahead of the trough, an axis of moderate instability will be in place across the Rio Grande Valley. As surface temperatures warm today, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the higher terrain of northern Mexico, with convection spreading eastward into the Rio Grande Valley. Along much of the instability axis, forecast soundings by afternoon have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range, with 0-3 km lapse rates near or above 8 C/km. In addition, lapse rates are steep in the mid-levels. This environment should enable supercells to develop with a potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. The severe threat is expected to first develop in parts of west and southwest Texas in the early afternoon, gradually spreading southeastward into south-central and south Texas by late afternoon. ..Broyles/Moore.. 05/08/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears limited for Friday across the country. The upper trough currently across the central U.S. will continue to meander east through the next 48 hours. This will bring widespread rain chances to much of the MS/OH River Valleys and the Southeast over the next two days. To the west, upper ridging will favor drier conditions, but weak low-level winds should modulate the potential for fire spread. Breezy and dry conditions may develop through the Red River Valley of the North Friday afternoon after a dry cold frontal passage, but confidence in sustained winds above elevated thresholds (15 mph) during peak heating is too low to warrant risk highlights. ..Moore.. 05/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears limited for Friday across the country. The upper trough currently across the central U.S. will continue to meander east through the next 48 hours. This will bring widespread rain chances to much of the MS/OH River Valleys and the Southeast over the next two days. To the west, upper ridging will favor drier conditions, but weak low-level winds should modulate the potential for fire spread. Breezy and dry conditions may develop through the Red River Valley of the North Friday afternoon after a dry cold frontal passage, but confidence in sustained winds above elevated thresholds (15 mph) during peak heating is too low to warrant risk highlights. ..Moore.. 05/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across portions of western North Dakota. 05 UTC surface analysis shows a surface low developing in the lee of the Canadian Rockies, which will track to the east through the day. Southerly winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph across ND ahead of a southeastward moving cold front out of MT and Saskatchewan. Although isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along this boundary by early evening, there should be a 3-4 hour wind during the afternoon with warm temperatures in the low/mid 80s, RH values in the low 20s, and breezy conditions. Although spring green up is underway, dead grasses remain across the fuel landscape and are sufficiently dry to carry large fires (as evidenced by a couple of large fires in recent days across western ND). Similar wind/RH conditions could develop along the MT/Canadian border within the post-frontal regime, but wetting rainfall over the past three days has likely mitigated fuel status for the time being. Elsewhere across the country, widespread rain chances and weak gradient winds will limit additional fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 05/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across portions of western North Dakota. 05 UTC surface analysis shows a surface low developing in the lee of the Canadian Rockies, which will track to the east through the day. Southerly winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph across ND ahead of a southeastward moving cold front out of MT and Saskatchewan. Although isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along this boundary by early evening, there should be a 3-4 hour wind during the afternoon with warm temperatures in the low/mid 80s, RH values in the low 20s, and breezy conditions. Although spring green up is underway, dead grasses remain across the fuel landscape and are sufficiently dry to carry large fires (as evidenced by a couple of large fires in recent days across western ND). Similar wind/RH conditions could develop along the MT/Canadian border within the post-frontal regime, but wetting rainfall over the past three days has likely mitigated fuel status for the time being. Elsewhere across the country, widespread rain chances and weak gradient winds will limit additional fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 05/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 PM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... An appreciable severe threat is not expected across the continental United States through daybreak on Thursday. ...DISCUSSION... Latest water vapor imagery shows a mid-level low over eastern Kansas, with a long fetch of west-southwesterly flow from the southern Plains to the East Coast. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible this evening from the vicinity of the low southeastward into part of the mid Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley and Southeast. Additional storms will be possible this evening in parts of the Desert Southwest and from the central Rockies into the central High Plains. Organized severe convection is not expected through daybreak Thursday morning. ..Broyles.. 05/08/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed May 7 23:48:01 UTC 2025.

MD 0736 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL TO EASTERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0736 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 PM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Areas affected...Central to eastern Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 072345Z - 080115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Shallow convection developing across central to eastern Oklahoma will be capable of producing hail up to severe limits. This threat is expected to remain fairly isolated and short-lived; watch issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Weak thunderstorms have been percolating across central/northern OK over the past few hours, but have recently experienced a slight uptick in intensity as they migrate southeastward into a somewhat more strongly sheared environment. Recent RAP mesoanalysis estimates indicate that effective shear values around 35 knots are in place across eastern OK, which may allow for sufficient storm organization to produce hail stones of around one inch. The thermodynamic environment is largely being driven by diurnally-driven surface temperatures in the 70s beneath cold temperatures aloft associated with an upper low over the region. MLCAPE values of around 500 J/kg will likely be the buoyancy zenith with a gradual reduction in MLCAPE expected with the onset of the early evening transition in the next 1-2 hours. Consequently, the overall severe threat is expected to remain relatively localized and short-lived, and will not require watch issuance. ..Moore/Smith.. 05/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... LAT...LON 35919845 36019818 36619643 36759588 36689548 36429509 36189483 35849461 35459446 34979456 34729491 34719563 35379835 35629850 35919845 MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 PM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the D3/Wednesday through D6/Monday period. A broad upper-low will linger across the southeastern US as heights rise with an upper-level ridge building in the western US. The building upper-level high in the west will bring warming and drying conditions, but generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. Late in period D6/Monday into D7/Tuesday, a trough is progged to develop across the western Pacific. Increased southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Great Basin region, bringing likely overlap of wind/dry conditions ahead of potential for more precipitation. Less precipitation is expected across portions of Arizona. Fuels in both of these regions are generally below seasonal averages for dryness, owing to recent scattered shower and thunderstorm activity. Though some drying is forecast in ERC modeling, it is unlikely fuels will be overly receptive for fire spread, leading to low confidence in including any areas at this time. Some overlap of windy/dry conditions may extend into portions of western New Mexico as well. For now, model spread leads to low confidence in including areas. ..Thornton.. 05/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 PM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the D3/Wednesday through D6/Monday period. A broad upper-low will linger across the southeastern US as heights rise with an upper-level ridge building in the western US. The building upper-level high in the west will bring warming and drying conditions, but generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. Late in period D6/Monday into D7/Tuesday, a trough is progged to develop across the western Pacific. Increased southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Great Basin region, bringing likely overlap of wind/dry conditions ahead of potential for more precipitation. Less precipitation is expected across portions of Arizona. Fuels in both of these regions are generally below seasonal averages for dryness, owing to recent scattered shower and thunderstorm activity. Though some drying is forecast in ERC modeling, it is unlikely fuels will be overly receptive for fire spread, leading to low confidence in including any areas at this time. Some overlap of windy/dry conditions may extend into portions of western New Mexico as well. For now, model spread leads to low confidence in including areas. ..Thornton.. 05/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed May 7 20:36:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS AND THE OZARKS...AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA INTO PARTS OF FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of the southern Plains into the Ozarks, and separately over southeast Georgia into portions of Florida. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was the removal of severe-thunderstorm probabilities over the central Gulf Coast -- where a remnant MCS has moved offshore. ..Weinman.. 05/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025/ ...Texas to the Central Gulf Coast... Extensive convection and related outflow has shunted greater low-level moisture and an effective front off most of the TX Coast this morning. Ongoing clusters/supercells just south of the LA Coast are generally expected to remain offshore this afternoon as they track eastward along/near the surface boundary. A small and somewhat separate cluster with a history of producing measured severe winds near New Orleans should track along/near the MS/AL Coast over the next few hours while weakening, as it will remain north of the outflow boundary/front. Even so, modest heating of a residually moist low-level airmass may support weak MUCAPE and an isolated threat for damaging winds and perhaps a tornado with this activity. The potential for renewed convective development this afternoon across TX appears low, as the upper low over OK moves northeastward towards the Ozarks. Neutral to weakly rising mid-level heights suggest nebulous large-scale forcing at best, and perhaps some subsidence through the day. While a strong thunderstorm or two may still develop across south-central TX and vicinity near the stalled front, the overall severe potential appears too low/conditional to maintain even Marginal Risk caliber severe probabilities with this update. ...Central/Eastern Oklahoma into Western Arkansas... A mid/upper-level low over KS/OK will progress eastward to the Ozarks/Lower MO Valley by tonight, accompanied by a belt of enhanced west-southwesterly mid-level winds on its southern periphery. A weak surface low and modest low-level convergence will exist this afternoon across central/eastern OK. But, weak instability is still expected to develop as cloud breaks occur under the mid-level cool pocket (around -13 to -18 C at 500mb), with around 500-800 J/kg MLCAPE plausible with peak afternoon heating. Some of the lower-topped convection that develops could become strong to locally severe with hail possible from mid/late afternoon into this evening. Brief funnel/tornado potential may also diurnally exist given ambient low-level vorticity/steep lapse rates in proximity to the upper low. This activity is expected to quickly weaken with eastward extent this evening with the loss of daytime heating. ...Florida/Coastal Georgia... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may develop this afternoon and early evening along and south of a front draped across coastal/southeast GA into parts of FL. Moderate instability and sufficient deep-layer shear should be present across these regions to support some updraft organization. Occasional severe hail and damaging winds may occur with the strongest cores. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS AND THE OZARKS...AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA INTO PARTS OF FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of the southern Plains into the Ozarks, and separately over southeast Georgia into portions of Florida. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was the removal of severe-thunderstorm probabilities over the central Gulf Coast -- where a remnant MCS has moved offshore. ..Weinman.. 05/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025/ ...Texas to the Central Gulf Coast... Extensive convection and related outflow has shunted greater low-level moisture and an effective front off most of the TX Coast this morning. Ongoing clusters/supercells just south of the LA Coast are generally expected to remain offshore this afternoon as they track eastward along/near the surface boundary. A small and somewhat separate cluster with a history of producing measured severe winds near New Orleans should track along/near the MS/AL Coast over the next few hours while weakening, as it will remain north of the outflow boundary/front. Even so, modest heating of a residually moist low-level airmass may support weak MUCAPE and an isolated threat for damaging winds and perhaps a tornado with this activity. The potential for renewed convective development this afternoon across TX appears low, as the upper low over OK moves northeastward towards the Ozarks. Neutral to weakly rising mid-level heights suggest nebulous large-scale forcing at best, and perhaps some subsidence through the day. While a strong thunderstorm or two may still develop across south-central TX and vicinity near the stalled front, the overall severe potential appears too low/conditional to maintain even Marginal Risk caliber severe probabilities with this update. ...Central/Eastern Oklahoma into Western Arkansas... A mid/upper-level low over KS/OK will progress eastward to the Ozarks/Lower MO Valley by tonight, accompanied by a belt of enhanced west-southwesterly mid-level winds on its southern periphery. A weak surface low and modest low-level convergence will exist this afternoon across central/eastern OK. But, weak instability is still expected to develop as cloud breaks occur under the mid-level cool pocket (around -13 to -18 C at 500mb), with around 500-800 J/kg MLCAPE plausible with peak afternoon heating. Some of the lower-topped convection that develops could become strong to locally severe with hail possible from mid/late afternoon into this evening. Brief funnel/tornado potential may also diurnally exist given ambient low-level vorticity/steep lapse rates in proximity to the upper low. This activity is expected to quickly weaken with eastward extent this evening with the loss of daytime heating. ...Florida/Coastal Georgia... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may develop this afternoon and early evening along and south of a front draped across coastal/southeast GA into parts of FL. Moderate instability and sufficient deep-layer shear should be present across these regions to support some updraft organization. Occasional severe hail and damaging winds may occur with the strongest cores. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1238 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential will generally be limited for much of the country on Thursday, though regional concerns will likely emerge for parts of western North Dakota during the afternoon hours. A cold front associated with a clipper low migrating across the Canadian Prairies is forecast to push across central and eastern MT during the day. Pre-frontal southerly flow is forecast to increase to 15-20 mph across western ND by late afternoon. A combination of temperatures warming into the low 80s with deep boundary-layer mixing should yield RH values in the low to mid 20s. Much of western ND has remained dry over the past few days, and residual dead grasses have supported a couple of large fires over the past week. While the fire weather threat is not expected to be particularly widespread, the potential for elevated fire weather conditions over a receptive fuel landscape warrants highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1238 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential will generally be limited for much of the country on Thursday, though regional concerns will likely emerge for parts of western North Dakota during the afternoon hours. A cold front associated with a clipper low migrating across the Canadian Prairies is forecast to push across central and eastern MT during the day. Pre-frontal southerly flow is forecast to increase to 15-20 mph across western ND by late afternoon. A combination of temperatures warming into the low 80s with deep boundary-layer mixing should yield RH values in the low to mid 20s. Much of western ND has remained dry over the past few days, and residual dead grasses have supported a couple of large fires over the past week. While the fire weather threat is not expected to be particularly widespread, the potential for elevated fire weather conditions over a receptive fuel landscape warrants highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, from damaging winds along with some hail, are possible across the Southeast States, mainly on Friday afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... An elongated mid/upper-level trough will begin to separate into a more compact trough across the Northeast and a weak cutoff low over the South-Central States. A weak surface cyclone should accompany the northern shortwave impulse, tracking from the VA vicinity towards coastal southern New England. ...Southeast... The aforementioned synoptic pattern evolution will confine the spatial extent of at least moderate mid-level west-southwesterlies closer to the Coastal Plain and Piedmont regions of the Southeast by Friday afternoon. This should overlap a broad swath of 60s surface dew points, with strong boundary-layer heating from the Carolinas southward where moderate buoyancy is anticipated. Large-scale ascent tied to the vigorous shortwave impulse over the Northeast should largely remain displaced farther north of this plume. Highest confidence in scattered storm development is along the sea breezes and lee trough along the southern Appalachians. Isolated damaging winds and severe hail will be possible. ..Grams.. 05/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, from damaging winds along with some hail, are possible across the Southeast States, mainly on Friday afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... An elongated mid/upper-level trough will begin to separate into a more compact trough across the Northeast and a weak cutoff low over the South-Central States. A weak surface cyclone should accompany the northern shortwave impulse, tracking from the VA vicinity towards coastal southern New England. ...Southeast... The aforementioned synoptic pattern evolution will confine the spatial extent of at least moderate mid-level west-southwesterlies closer to the Coastal Plain and Piedmont regions of the Southeast by Friday afternoon. This should overlap a broad swath of 60s surface dew points, with strong boundary-layer heating from the Carolinas southward where moderate buoyancy is anticipated. Large-scale ascent tied to the vigorous shortwave impulse over the Northeast should largely remain displaced farther north of this plume. Highest confidence in scattered storm development is along the sea breezes and lee trough along the southern Appalachians. Isolated damaging winds and severe hail will be possible. ..Grams.. 05/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and severe hail are possible over the southern Appalachians on Thursday afternoon to early evening. A swath of large hail and severe wind is possible along the Rio Grande Valley from mid-afternoon to evening. ...Synopsis... An elongated, positive-tilt mid/upper trough from southeast Canada to the Rio Grande will slowly progress east on Thursday. At least a trio of embedded shortwave impulses will aid in corridors of modest large-scale ascent, amid a pervasive swath of 35-50 kt 500-mb west-southwesterlies across the South into the East. Given the highly positive-tilt orientation of the trough, attendant surface reflections will remain weak. A minor surface wave over the Mid-South should decay by early evening, while a separate low drifts northeast from the lee of the southern Appalachians to VA. ...Mid-South to southern Appalachians... Multiple corridors of scattered thunderstorm development are expected by Thursday afternoon, ahead of a shortwave impulse drifting from the Ozarks across a portion of the Mid-South. Lingering activity/cloud cover during the morning will serve as the northern limiter to severe potential, along with weaker deep-layer shear closer to the trough. The most likely zone for a scattered severe hail and damaging wind threat appears to be across the southern Appalachians vicinity where MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and 30-40 kt effective bulk shear are anticipated. Here, a few supercells may congeal into an organized cluster or two. Farther west, lesser values of instability and shear should yield a more isolated/marginal severe threat. ...TX Rio Grande Valley... A low-amplitude shortwave impulse should progress from northern Chihuahua along the Rio Grande. Numerous thunderstorms are expected ahead of the impulse across the southern Trans-Pecos/Big Bend by mid-afternoon and adjacent Coahuila. Uncertainty increases with how this activity will evolve downstream Thursday evening, potentially remaining primarily across northeast Mexico or growing upscale across the Lower Rio Grande Valley into Deep South TX as it impinges on richer low-level moisture. With low-level northeasterlies beneath mid/upper-level west-southwesterlies, an elongated/nearly straight-line hodograph is expected. This should foster splitting supercell structures, which could congeal into a cluster/small MCS. The primary limiting factor to more robust intensity will be a lack of steep mid-level lapse rates amid weak warm advection. Still, enough signal exists to warrant a level 2/SLGT risk. ...Southern Mid-Atlantic... Modest mid-level forcing for ascent should promote isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing off the central Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains on Thursday afternoon. A well-mixed boundary layer with weak MLCAPE and moderate effective shear will allow for a few transient/weakly organized cells during the afternoon. This could promote small hail amid weak mid-level lapse rates and support a primary threat of localized damaging winds. ...Southern Atlantic Coast... Sufficient mid-level westerlies are expected to support a few weakly organized storms along the sea breeze boundary on Thursday afternoon. Mid-level temperatures should remain cold enough to support an isolated severe hail threat. A warm/moist boundary layer will also foster isolated strong to severe gusts. ..Grams.. 05/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and severe hail are possible over the southern Appalachians on Thursday afternoon to early evening. A swath of large hail and severe wind is possible along the Rio Grande Valley from mid-afternoon to evening. ...Synopsis... An elongated, positive-tilt mid/upper trough from southeast Canada to the Rio Grande will slowly progress east on Thursday. At least a trio of embedded shortwave impulses will aid in corridors of modest large-scale ascent, amid a pervasive swath of 35-50 kt 500-mb west-southwesterlies across the South into the East. Given the highly positive-tilt orientation of the trough, attendant surface reflections will remain weak. A minor surface wave over the Mid-South should decay by early evening, while a separate low drifts northeast from the lee of the southern Appalachians to VA. ...Mid-South to southern Appalachians... Multiple corridors of scattered thunderstorm development are expected by Thursday afternoon, ahead of a shortwave impulse drifting from the Ozarks across a portion of the Mid-South. Lingering activity/cloud cover during the morning will serve as the northern limiter to severe potential, along with weaker deep-layer shear closer to the trough. The most likely zone for a scattered severe hail and damaging wind threat appears to be across the southern Appalachians vicinity where MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and 30-40 kt effective bulk shear are anticipated. Here, a few supercells may congeal into an organized cluster or two. Farther west, lesser values of instability and shear should yield a more isolated/marginal severe threat. ...TX Rio Grande Valley... A low-amplitude shortwave impulse should progress from northern Chihuahua along the Rio Grande. Numerous thunderstorms are expected ahead of the impulse across the southern Trans-Pecos/Big Bend by mid-afternoon and adjacent Coahuila. Uncertainty increases with how this activity will evolve downstream Thursday evening, potentially remaining primarily across northeast Mexico or growing upscale across the Lower Rio Grande Valley into Deep South TX as it impinges on richer low-level moisture. With low-level northeasterlies beneath mid/upper-level west-southwesterlies, an elongated/nearly straight-line hodograph is expected. This should foster splitting supercell structures, which could congeal into a cluster/small MCS. The primary limiting factor to more robust intensity will be a lack of steep mid-level lapse rates amid weak warm advection. Still, enough signal exists to warrant a level 2/SLGT risk. ...Southern Mid-Atlantic... Modest mid-level forcing for ascent should promote isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing off the central Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains on Thursday afternoon. A well-mixed boundary layer with weak MLCAPE and moderate effective shear will allow for a few transient/weakly organized cells during the afternoon. This could promote small hail amid weak mid-level lapse rates and support a primary threat of localized damaging winds. ...Southern Atlantic Coast... Sufficient mid-level westerlies are expected to support a few weakly organized storms along the sea breeze boundary on Thursday afternoon. Mid-level temperatures should remain cold enough to support an isolated severe hail threat. A warm/moist boundary layer will also foster isolated strong to severe gusts. ..Grams.. 05/07/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 05/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1237 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country. An upper trough over the central/southern Plains will slowly drift east through the day. A secondary shortwave trough is noted in water-vapor imagery over the Southwest. Scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead of both of these features will limit fire concerns for much of the Southwest, Plains, and Southeast. Although receptive fuels and dry conditions remain across parts of West TX, gradient winds are forecast to remain relatively weak. Localized fire weather conditions may emerge across parts of eastern MT where southerly winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph by late afternoon. However, relative humidity values should generally remain above 30% for most areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more