SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 05/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1237 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country. An upper trough over the central/southern Plains will slowly drift east through the day. A secondary shortwave trough is noted in water-vapor imagery over the Southwest. Scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead of both of these features will limit fire concerns for much of the Southwest, Plains, and Southeast. Although receptive fuels and dry conditions remain across parts of West TX, gradient winds are forecast to remain relatively weak. Localized fire weather conditions may emerge across parts of eastern MT where southerly winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph by late afternoon. However, relative humidity values should generally remain above 30% for most areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS AND THE OZARKS...THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA INTO PORTIONS OF FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of the southern Plains and Ozarks, the central Gulf Coast, and separately over southeast Georgia into portions of Florida. ...Texas to the Central Gulf Coast... Extensive convection and related outflow has shunted greater low-level moisture and an effective front off most of the TX Coast this morning. Ongoing clusters/supercells just south of the LA Coast are generally expected to remain offshore this afternoon as they track eastward along/near the surface boundary. A small and somewhat separate cluster with a history of producing measured severe winds near New Orleans should track along/near the MS/AL Coast over the next few hours while weakening, as it will remain north of the outflow boundary/front. Even so, modest heating of a residually moist low-level airmass may support weak MUCAPE and an isolated threat for damaging winds and perhaps a tornado with this activity. The potential for renewed convective development this afternoon across TX appears low, as the upper low over OK moves northeastward towards the Ozarks. Neutral to weakly rising mid-level heights suggest nebulous large-scale forcing at best, and perhaps some subsidence through the day. While a strong thunderstorm or two may still develop across south-central TX and vicinity near the stalled front, the overall severe potential appears too low/conditional to maintain even Marginal Risk caliber severe probabilities with this update. ...Central/Eastern Oklahoma into Western Arkansas... A mid/upper-level low over KS/OK will progress eastward to the Ozarks/Lower MO Valley by tonight, accompanied by a belt of enhanced west-southwesterly mid-level winds on its southern periphery. A weak surface low and modest low-level convergence will exist this afternoon across central/eastern OK. But, weak instability is still expected to develop as cloud breaks occur under the mid-level cool pocket (around -13 to -18 C at 500mb), with around 500-800 J/kg MLCAPE plausible with peak afternoon heating. Some of the lower-topped convection that develops could become strong to locally severe with hail possible from mid/late afternoon into this evening. Brief funnel/tornado potential may also diurnally exist given ambient low-level vorticity/steep lapse rates in proximity to the upper low. This activity is expected to quickly weaken with eastward extent this evening with the loss of daytime heating. ...Florida/Coastal Georgia... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may develop this afternoon and early evening along and south of a front draped across coastal/southeast GA into parts of FL. Moderate instability and sufficient deep-layer shear should be present across these regions to support some updraft organization. Occasional severe hail and damaging winds may occur with the strongest cores. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 05/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS AND THE OZARKS...THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA INTO PORTIONS OF FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of the southern Plains and Ozarks, the central Gulf Coast, and separately over southeast Georgia into portions of Florida. ...Texas to the Central Gulf Coast... Extensive convection and related outflow has shunted greater low-level moisture and an effective front off most of the TX Coast this morning. Ongoing clusters/supercells just south of the LA Coast are generally expected to remain offshore this afternoon as they track eastward along/near the surface boundary. A small and somewhat separate cluster with a history of producing measured severe winds near New Orleans should track along/near the MS/AL Coast over the next few hours while weakening, as it will remain north of the outflow boundary/front. Even so, modest heating of a residually moist low-level airmass may support weak MUCAPE and an isolated threat for damaging winds and perhaps a tornado with this activity. The potential for renewed convective development this afternoon across TX appears low, as the upper low over OK moves northeastward towards the Ozarks. Neutral to weakly rising mid-level heights suggest nebulous large-scale forcing at best, and perhaps some subsidence through the day. While a strong thunderstorm or two may still develop across south-central TX and vicinity near the stalled front, the overall severe potential appears too low/conditional to maintain even Marginal Risk caliber severe probabilities with this update. ...Central/Eastern Oklahoma into Western Arkansas... A mid/upper-level low over KS/OK will progress eastward to the Ozarks/Lower MO Valley by tonight, accompanied by a belt of enhanced west-southwesterly mid-level winds on its southern periphery. A weak surface low and modest low-level convergence will exist this afternoon across central/eastern OK. But, weak instability is still expected to develop as cloud breaks occur under the mid-level cool pocket (around -13 to -18 C at 500mb), with around 500-800 J/kg MLCAPE plausible with peak afternoon heating. Some of the lower-topped convection that develops could become strong to locally severe with hail possible from mid/late afternoon into this evening. Brief funnel/tornado potential may also diurnally exist given ambient low-level vorticity/steep lapse rates in proximity to the upper low. This activity is expected to quickly weaken with eastward extent this evening with the loss of daytime heating. ...Florida/Coastal Georgia... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may develop this afternoon and early evening along and south of a front draped across coastal/southeast GA into parts of FL. Moderate instability and sufficient deep-layer shear should be present across these regions to support some updraft organization. Occasional severe hail and damaging winds may occur with the strongest cores. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 05/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...OZARKS...GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms may occur today across parts of the southern Plains and Ozarks to the Gulf Coast. ...Coastal/south-central Texas to middle Gulf Coast... A cluster of previously severe storms (overnight) across Deep South Texas is now over the western Gulf, with substantial effective-boundary-reinforcing elevated convection spanning the upper Texas coast to coastal Louisiana and the Mobile Bay vicinity. The more intense convection should focus offshore today, but areas along the immediate coast, such as southern Louisiana, may have some lingering severe risk pending the disposition of existing early day outflow and convection, ahead of what will likely be an upscale-growing MCS over the northwest to north-central Gulf. Farther to the west, considerable uncertainty exists with later-day deep convective potential across south-central/southeast Texas given the impacts of the overnight storms, with ramifications on lapse rates, source region moisture etc., even with a nearly full diurnal cycle for potential air mass adjustments/recovery. These thermodynamic trends are also in the context of weak height rises and larger-scale subsidence regionally. While some severe storms could develop later today into peak heating under a more optimistic airmass-recovery scenario, any such severe potential would likely remain isolated and marginal overall. ...Southern Plains to Ozarks/Ark-La-Tex.. The mid/upper-level low will progress eastward from the south-central Plains toward the Ozarks/Lower Missouri Valley by tonight, accompanied by a 50+ kt belt of west-southwesterly mid-level winds on its southern periphery. Only a subtle surface low/features and weak convergence will exist, but weak inhibition is expected by afternoon as cloud breaks occur under the mid-level cool pocket (-13C to -18C at 500mb), with upwards of 500-800 J/kg MLCAPE plausible. Some of the semi-lower-topped storms could be strong or locally severe with hail and wind gusts possible from mid/late afternoon into this evening, and funnel/brief tornado potential might also diurnally exist given ambient vorticity/steep lapse rates in proximity to the upper low. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...OZARKS...GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms may occur today across parts of the southern Plains and Ozarks to the Gulf Coast. ...Coastal/south-central Texas to middle Gulf Coast... A cluster of previously severe storms (overnight) across Deep South Texas is now over the western Gulf, with substantial effective-boundary-reinforcing elevated convection spanning the upper Texas coast to coastal Louisiana and the Mobile Bay vicinity. The more intense convection should focus offshore today, but areas along the immediate coast, such as southern Louisiana, may have some lingering severe risk pending the disposition of existing early day outflow and convection, ahead of what will likely be an upscale-growing MCS over the northwest to north-central Gulf. Farther to the west, considerable uncertainty exists with later-day deep convective potential across south-central/southeast Texas given the impacts of the overnight storms, with ramifications on lapse rates, source region moisture etc., even with a nearly full diurnal cycle for potential air mass adjustments/recovery. These thermodynamic trends are also in the context of weak height rises and larger-scale subsidence regionally. While some severe storms could develop later today into peak heating under a more optimistic airmass-recovery scenario, any such severe potential would likely remain isolated and marginal overall. ...Southern Plains to Ozarks/Ark-La-Tex.. The mid/upper-level low will progress eastward from the south-central Plains toward the Ozarks/Lower Missouri Valley by tonight, accompanied by a 50+ kt belt of west-southwesterly mid-level winds on its southern periphery. Only a subtle surface low/features and weak convergence will exist, but weak inhibition is expected by afternoon as cloud breaks occur under the mid-level cool pocket (-13C to -18C at 500mb), with upwards of 500-800 J/kg MLCAPE plausible. Some of the semi-lower-topped storms could be strong or locally severe with hail and wind gusts possible from mid/late afternoon into this evening, and funnel/brief tornado potential might also diurnally exist given ambient vorticity/steep lapse rates in proximity to the upper low. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/07/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0313 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... From this weekend through early next week, an upper-level low will be situated in the lower Mississippi Valley into the northern Gulf. This feature will drive repeated days of convection within parts of the Southeast into the Florida Peninsula. Lower-end severe potential may occur with this activity, but how organized/intense it will be is not certain. The upper-level low will become more progressive and lift northeastward by the middle of next week. Shortwave ridging aloft will move through the Plains into the Southeast in advance of a western trough. With the presence of the upper low over the Gulf Coast region, there will be offshore flow in the western Gulf for a few days before moisture returns northward again in response to the mid-week trough. The largest uncertainty with this system will be the moisture quality. Secondly, models currently project the strongest forcing to be within the central/northern Plains, farther away from the moisture plume moving north. At least as currently forecast, strong southwesterly/westerly winds aloft should overspread the southern/central Plains by late next week. This particular trend in guidance is recent and confidence is accordingly low, but model trends will continue to be monitored in the coming days. Read more

WW 0237 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 237 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..05/07/25 ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 237 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC047-131-215-247-249-261-273-355-409-427-479-505-070940- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROOKS DUVAL HIDALGO JIM HOGG JIM WELLS KENEDY KLEBERG NUECES SAN PATRICIO STARR WEBB ZAPATA GMZ135-231-232-070940- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX BAFFIN BAY AND UPPER LAGUNA MADRE CORPUS CHRISTI AND NUECES BAYS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 237 SEVERE TSTM TX CW 070640Z - 071300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 237 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 140 AM CDT Wed May 7 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of South Texas Coastal Waters * Effective this Wednesday morning from 140 AM until 800 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A cluster of intense storms potentially including a couple of semi-discrete supercells are expected to cross Deep South Texas overnight, with locally significant severe weather possible, including very large hail and severe-caliber wind gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles south of Laredo TX to 40 miles south southeast of Corpus Christi TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 650. Mean storm motion vector 25025. ...Guyer Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible from the Florida Panhandle into North Florida, southeast Georgia, and central/coastal South Carolina on Friday. ...Synopsis... The elongated upper-level trough will begin to evolve into a stronger trough in the Northeast with a weak cutoff low developing in parts of the southern Plains and Mid-South. Much of the stronger mid-level winds will be offshore during the period. During the afternoon, remnant 30-40 kts mid-level winds are expected from the Florida Panhandle into South Carolina. Convection appears possible along a weak surface boundary as well as the Atlantic sea breeze. ...Florida Panhandle into South Carolina... Dewpoints near and south of the weak boundary should hold in the low/mid 60s F during the afternoon. Despite some potential cloud cover influence from convection within the Gulf, most guidance suggests that strong surface heating should occur. 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE and 25-35 kts of effective shear will support organized storms. Highest confidence in development is along the Florida sea breeze. The weak surface boundary may see more isolated coverage unless some clustering can occur. Isolated large hail and damaging winds will be possible. ..Wendt.. 05/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible from the Florida Panhandle into North Florida, southeast Georgia, and central/coastal South Carolina on Friday. ...Synopsis... The elongated upper-level trough will begin to evolve into a stronger trough in the Northeast with a weak cutoff low developing in parts of the southern Plains and Mid-South. Much of the stronger mid-level winds will be offshore during the period. During the afternoon, remnant 30-40 kts mid-level winds are expected from the Florida Panhandle into South Carolina. Convection appears possible along a weak surface boundary as well as the Atlantic sea breeze. ...Florida Panhandle into South Carolina... Dewpoints near and south of the weak boundary should hold in the low/mid 60s F during the afternoon. Despite some potential cloud cover influence from convection within the Gulf, most guidance suggests that strong surface heating should occur. 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE and 25-35 kts of effective shear will support organized storms. Highest confidence in development is along the Florida sea breeze. The weak surface boundary may see more isolated coverage unless some clustering can occur. Isolated large hail and damaging winds will be possible. ..Wendt.. 05/07/2025 Read more

WW 0237 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 237 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..05/07/25 ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 237 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC047-131-215-247-249-261-273-355-409-427-479-505-070840- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROOKS DUVAL HIDALGO JIM HOGG JIM WELLS KENEDY KLEBERG NUECES SAN PATRICIO STARR WEBB ZAPATA GMZ135-231-232-070840- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX BAFFIN BAY AND UPPER LAGUNA MADRE CORPUS CHRISTI AND NUECES BAYS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A BROAD PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CONUS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds are possible, mainly Thursday afternoon and evening, from southern Texas across the Southeast and into the Lower Mid-Atlantic States. ...Synopsis... An elongated trough from the Northeast into the Southwest will shift eastward on Thursday. Areas of moderate mid-level winds will support some potential for strong to severe storms across a very broad region from the Trans-Pecos into the Mid-South/Southeast and the southern Mid-Atlantic. As the trough will be highly positively tilted, the surface pattern will be rather nebulous and mid-level ascent will be weak. A weak surface boundary is expected from parts of the southern Plains into the Mid Atlantic. Outlook refinement is possible as greater details of potential mesoscale severe risk corridors become more evident. ...Mid-South... A weak surface front may help to focus convective development during the afternoon. Given the orientation of the upper trough, mid-level ascent will be rather weak. Still, temperatures will be cold aloft and shear on the southern periphery of the weak upper low will be sufficient for isolated organized cells capable of large hail and damaging winds. Storm coverage and timing remain a bit uncertain as some cloud cover (some with the upper low and other influence from convection farther south) could hinder surface heating. These uncertainties preclude higher hail probabilities. ...Trans-Pecos into Rio Grande Valley... A modest shortwave trough in northern Mexico will slide eastward into the Trans-Pecos by early afternoon. Storms are expected to initiate within the Davis Mountains and move southeastward into low 60s F dewpoints. Temperatures aloft will not be overly cold, but 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE can be expected as the storms move into richer moisture. It is possible that this activity grows upscale and moves along the Rio Grande Valley into South Texas late evening into early Friday morning. Given the timing of this activity, some boundary layer cooling will have occurred and marginally warmer air aloft in forecast soundings may limit a more organized severe threat. ...Southern Mid-Atlantic... Modest mid-level forcing should promote convection along the Appalachians/Blue Ridge. A well-mixed boundary layer with 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE and 35-40 kts of effective shear will allow for a few organized storms during the afternoon. Damaging winds and isolated marginally severe hail may occur. ...Southern Atlantic Coast... Though models differ on the placement of the stronger core of mid-level winds, sufficient westerly flow aloft is probable for a few organized storms along the sea breeze boundary. Temperatures should remain cold enough aloft to support a large hail threat. Damaging winds are also possible. ..Wendt.. 05/07/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential will generally be limited for much of the country on Thursday, though regional concerns will likely emerge for parts of western North Dakota during the afternoon hours. A cold front associated with a clipper low migrating across the Canadian Prairies is forecast to push across central and eastern MT during the day. Pre-frontal southerly flow is forecast to increase to 15-20 mph across western ND by late afternoon. A combination of temperatures warming into the low 80s with deep boundary-layer mixing should yield RH values in the low to mid 20s. Much of western ND has remained dry over the past few days, and residual dead grasses have supported a couple of large fires over the past week. While the fire weather threat is not expected to be particularly widespread, the potential for elevated fire weather conditions over a receptive fuel landscape warrants highlights. ..Moore.. 05/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country. An upper trough over the central/southern Plains will slowly drift east through the day. A secondary shortwave trough is noted in water-vapor imagery over the Southwest. Scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead of both of these features will limit fire concerns for much of the Southwest, Plains, and Southeast. Although receptive fuels and dry conditions remain across parts of West TX, gradient winds are forecast to remain relatively weak. Localized fire weather conditions may emerge across parts of eastern MT where southerly winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph by late afternoon. However, relative humidity values should generally remain above 30% for most areas. ..Moore.. 05/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and wind damage will be possible across parts of the Texas Coastal Plain. Marginally severe storms will also be possible in parts of the southern Plains, Ark-La-Tex and from the Sabine River Valley to the central Gulf Coast. ...Texas Coastal Plain... Mid-level flow will remain west-southwesterly today across the southern Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located across the Texas Coastal Plain, where surface dewpoints will range from the mid 60s to the lower 70s F. The airmass will be moderately unstable throughout the day as onshore easterly flow keeps the moisture in place. Although low-level convergence will be weak across this airmass, isolated thunderstorms could develop in the afternoon as minor mid-level perturbations pass through the flow. RAP forecast soundings between San Antonio and Corpus Christi have MLCAPE peaking near 3000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be near 7 C/km. This could be enough for isolated large hail with cells that develop during the mid to late afternoon. A few marginally severe wind gusts will also be possible. ...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex... A mid-level low will move eastward across the central Plains today, as west-southwesterly flow remains in place across the southern Plains. To the southeast of the low, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place from east Texas northward into eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Surface heating and large-scale ascent will likely support scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon. RAP forecast soundings across eastern Oklahoma at 21Z have 0-6 km shear near 50 knots, with steep low-level lapse rates exceeding 7 C/km. This, combined with relatively cold mid-level temperatures of -16C to -18C, could be enough for hail. Marginally severe gusts will also be possible. ...Sabine River Valley/Central Gulf Coast... Thunderstorms, with some potentially strong, are forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period from the northwest Gulf east-northeastward into the central Gulf Coast states. This convection is forecast to become an organized line segment, moving eastward across the northern Gulf from this morning into the afternoon. The northern edge of this line segment may affect areas near the coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and western Florida. Instability and steep low-level lapse rates may support a marginal potential for severe gusts. ..Broyles/Moore.. 05/07/2025 Read more

WW 0235 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 235 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW MSY TO 30 NNW ASD TO 25 E MCB TO 35 NE MCB. ..KERR..05/07/25 ATTN...WFO...LIX...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 235 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC117-070540- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE WASHINGTON MSC147-070540- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE WALTHALL THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0235 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 235 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW MSY TO 30 NNW ASD TO 25 E MCB TO 35 NE MCB. ..KERR..05/07/25 ATTN...WFO...LIX...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 235 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC117-070540- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE WASHINGTON MSC147-070540- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE WALTHALL THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 235 TORNADO LA MS 062210Z - 070600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 235 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 510 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northeast into Southeast Louisiana Southwest into Central Mississippi * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday morning from 510 PM until 100 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast to develop and move into the Watch area this evening into the early overnight. A few supercells and line segments will likely focus the severe thunderstorm and tornado risks. A couple of tornadoes are possible with the more intense thunderstorms, as well as damaging gusts and large hail. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles east northeast of Monroe LA to 75 miles south southwest of Mc Comb MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 233...WW 234... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Smith Read more

MD 0730 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 236... FOR THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0730 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Areas affected...the southern Texas Coastal Plain into Deep South Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 236... Valid 070300Z - 070500Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 236 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for severe hail will continue through at least 04 UTC along parts of the southern Texas Coastal Plain and into Deep South Texas. DISCUSSION...Isolated supercells along the TX Coastal Plain and into parts of Deep South TX have shown periods of vigorous intensification followed by rapid weakening. This is likely due to storm propagation along and just behind the convectively-reinforced cold front/outflow boundary that continues to push towards the coast. Recent radar analysis from KCRP shows that this boundary likely extends to at least 2 km above radar level, which should be near the mixed-layer LFC based on a modified 00 UTC CRP sounding and recent forecast soundings. Consequently, re-intensification of ongoing convection and/or new convective development appears possible along the boundary as near-surface parcels are lifted close to their LFC. Even with modulated nocturnal cooling, MLCAPE remains between 3500-4000 J/kg, which when combined with the strongly sheared environment (~50 knots of 0-6 km shear sampled by KCRP's VWP) will continue to promote a large to very large hail threat with the more robust supercells. Hail reports up to 2.0 inches have been noted over the past hour, but the convective environment is supportive of supercells capable of producing hail between 2.0 to 3.0 inches in diameter. This threat should persist for at least the next hour or so before the front/outflow reaches the coast. ..Moore.. 05/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...BRO... LAT...LON 27349924 27429914 28369776 29039672 29129641 29089615 28939601 28779599 28659604 28369644 28179684 27829716 27609736 27439750 27289774 27129797 27059822 27039861 27069891 27139918 27219923 27349924 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

MD 0731 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF SERN MS...SWRN AL...WRN FL PNHDL
Mesoscale Discussion 0731 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Areas affected...parts of sern MS...swrn AL...wrn FL PNHDL Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 070322Z - 070515Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...There still appears potential for convection to become better organized and intensify through Midnight-2 AM CDT, accompanied by an increase in potential for strong to severe surface gusts. DISCUSSION...Vigorous thunderstorm development is generally being maintained within a broader area of convection, which continues to spread eastward with large-forcing for ascent across the lower Mississippi Valley. One relatively broad cyclonic mesoscale circulation remains evident near a clustering of persistent strong convection, now near a remnant weak baroclinic zone east of Natchez MS. There still appears potential for this circulation to strengthen along the thermal gradient, particularly as long as south/southeasterly updraft inflow continues to emanate from a moist low-level environment characterized by sizable CAPE. This appears to extend as far east as the Florida Panhandle. 03Z surface observations suggest that convection may be contributing to a notable surface pressure perturbation, with 3-4+ mb 2-hourly surface pressure rises sampled at Greenwood, Jackson, Brookhaven County Airport MS and Baton Rouge LA, and much weaker rises to weak falls downstream. ..Kerr/Smith.. 05/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... LAT...LON 32468929 32448834 31928774 31298672 30298738 30058753 30368919 30528989 31058980 31508959 32468929 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more