WW 239 SEVERE TSTM AL TN 081900Z - 090300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 239 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 200 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern and Central Alabama Southern Middle Tennessee * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 200 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should continue to develop eastward from northeast Mississippi into parts of northern/central Alabama and southern middle Tennessee this afternoon and evening. Supercells will pose a threat for large hail up to 1-2 inches in diameter. Any clusters that can form may also pose some risk for damaging winds up to 60-70 mph. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles southwest of Muscle Shoals AL to 55 miles north northeast of Gadsden AL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 238... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Gleason Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible in parts of northern Florida and southern Georgia on Saturday. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will shift into the Plains on Saturday, as a compact shortwave trough exits the Northeast. Beneath the building ridge, an upper low will meander about the Sabine/lower MS Valleys, providing cool air aloft. At the surface, high pressure will stretch from James Bay into the Southern Plains, with another ridge from the Carolinas into the mid MS Valley. An old front will stall roughly from far southern AL and GA into northern FL, with northerly winds across much of the western Gulf. ...Northern FL into southern GA... Storms will likely be ongoing near or just south of the northern Gulf Coast for much of the day. Some of this activity may affect parts of the coastal FL Panhandle with heavy rain and locally strong wind gusts. To the east, heating over parts of FL, and perhaps far southern GA, will contribute to around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE, resulting in an uncapped air mass. Convergence near the front as well as weak warm advection from the south will lead to scattered storms. Shear will not be particularly strong, but the strongest initial cores may produce hail as temperatures aloft will be cool. Otherwise, clusters of storms or outflows could locally cause wind damage. ..Jewell.. 05/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible in parts of northern Florida and southern Georgia on Saturday. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will shift into the Plains on Saturday, as a compact shortwave trough exits the Northeast. Beneath the building ridge, an upper low will meander about the Sabine/lower MS Valleys, providing cool air aloft. At the surface, high pressure will stretch from James Bay into the Southern Plains, with another ridge from the Carolinas into the mid MS Valley. An old front will stall roughly from far southern AL and GA into northern FL, with northerly winds across much of the western Gulf. ...Northern FL into southern GA... Storms will likely be ongoing near or just south of the northern Gulf Coast for much of the day. Some of this activity may affect parts of the coastal FL Panhandle with heavy rain and locally strong wind gusts. To the east, heating over parts of FL, and perhaps far southern GA, will contribute to around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE, resulting in an uncapped air mass. Convergence near the front as well as weak warm advection from the south will lead to scattered storms. Shear will not be particularly strong, but the strongest initial cores may produce hail as temperatures aloft will be cool. Otherwise, clusters of storms or outflows could locally cause wind damage. ..Jewell.. 05/08/2025 Read more

MD 0742 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN FLORIDA...SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 0742 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Areas affected...northern Florida...southeastern Georgia...far southern South Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 081729Z - 081930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Hail and damaging wind threat may increase through the afternoon as thunderstorms develop along the sea breeze. DISCUSSION...The air mass across southeastern Georgia and southern South Carolina has warmed and destabilized through the morning and early afternoon, with temperatures now in the 80s. Thunderstorms have developed across southern South Carolina along a southward moving remnant outflow boundary. Additional thunderstorm development is expected along the sea breeze boundary through the afternoon. Deep layer shear will see some increase to around 30-40 kts through the afternoon, with increasing westerly flow aloft. A plume of steep lapse rates is in place across this region, owing to cooling temperature aloft. Largely straight hodographs and moderate to strong instability will support risk for large hail and damaging wind with thunderstorm development. This area will be monitored for possible watch issuance by mid to late afternoon. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 05/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC... LAT...LON 31398266 31538266 32008247 32488220 32528154 32338107 32008087 31388132 30418141 30068125 29848129 29858167 30058214 30528262 31398266 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... There is a chance of isolated mixed wet/dry thunderstorms in portions of southern Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin along/ahead of an approaching cold front. Fuels are in or entering the spring dip in this area and could be receptive to lightning ignition. However, precipitable water values are likely to be 0.8-1" with dewpoints in the 50s, and lightning amounts could be minimal over receptive fuels. Given the potential of hot, dry, and windy conditions emerging Sunday into early next week, this area will continue to be monitored. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track, and please see the previous discussion. ..Nauslar.. 05/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1250 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears limited for Friday across the country. The upper trough currently across the central U.S. will continue to meander east through the next 48 hours. This will bring widespread rain chances to much of the MS/OH River Valleys and the Southeast over the next two days. To the west, upper ridging will favor drier conditions, but weak low-level winds should modulate the potential for fire spread. Breezy and dry conditions may develop through the Red River Valley of the North Friday afternoon after a dry cold frontal passage, but confidence in sustained winds above elevated thresholds (15 mph) during peak heating is too low to warrant risk highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... There is a chance of isolated mixed wet/dry thunderstorms in portions of southern Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin along/ahead of an approaching cold front. Fuels are in or entering the spring dip in this area and could be receptive to lightning ignition. However, precipitable water values are likely to be 0.8-1" with dewpoints in the 50s, and lightning amounts could be minimal over receptive fuels. Given the potential of hot, dry, and windy conditions emerging Sunday into early next week, this area will continue to be monitored. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track, and please see the previous discussion. ..Nauslar.. 05/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1250 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears limited for Friday across the country. The upper trough currently across the central U.S. will continue to meander east through the next 48 hours. This will bring widespread rain chances to much of the MS/OH River Valleys and the Southeast over the next two days. To the west, upper ridging will favor drier conditions, but weak low-level winds should modulate the potential for fire spread. Breezy and dry conditions may develop through the Red River Valley of the North Friday afternoon after a dry cold frontal passage, but confidence in sustained winds above elevated thresholds (15 mph) during peak heating is too low to warrant risk highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0238 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0238 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE GULF COAST STATES NORTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts and large hail are possible across the Southeast States. ...Synopsis... Upper troughiness will extend from the Northeast southwestward into TX, with upper lows in both locales. The low/trough over the Mid Atlantic and New England will deepen through the period, with the base of this wave sweeping across VA and NC. To the south, cool midlevel temperatures will remain over the Gulf Coast states as a positive tilt trough develops over the western Gulf. At the surface, weak low pressure will develop from the Mid Atlantic Coast to the eastern Carolinas, ahead of a cold front. Sufficient moisture will exist ahead of the front, from far southeast VA toward the Gulf Coast and FL, to support scattered strong and isolated severe daytime storms. ...Southeastern States... Although the Gulf Coast portion of the front will be weak, moderate instability due to strong heating should lead to scattered storms by late afternoon in an east-west zone from southern MS into southern GA. Forecast soundings depict weak shear but a steep lapse rate environment favorable for diurnal hail. Cold downdrafts may also yield localized wind damage. To the north, storms will increase in coverage over much of the Carolinas into far southeast VA. Instability may be a bit marginal over north parts of this region due to early development. However, pockets of air mass recovery will support scattered strong storms, aided by the upper trough influence to the north. Over FL, strong heating beneath cool midlevel temperatures (500 mb around -11 C) will result in moderate instability. Isolated storms are likely to develop over the interior Peninsula, with large hail potential. Storms should move slowly given weak flow below 500 mb, and as such, the threat should remain relatively localized. ..Jewell.. 05/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE GULF COAST STATES NORTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts and large hail are possible across the Southeast States. ...Synopsis... Upper troughiness will extend from the Northeast southwestward into TX, with upper lows in both locales. The low/trough over the Mid Atlantic and New England will deepen through the period, with the base of this wave sweeping across VA and NC. To the south, cool midlevel temperatures will remain over the Gulf Coast states as a positive tilt trough develops over the western Gulf. At the surface, weak low pressure will develop from the Mid Atlantic Coast to the eastern Carolinas, ahead of a cold front. Sufficient moisture will exist ahead of the front, from far southeast VA toward the Gulf Coast and FL, to support scattered strong and isolated severe daytime storms. ...Southeastern States... Although the Gulf Coast portion of the front will be weak, moderate instability due to strong heating should lead to scattered storms by late afternoon in an east-west zone from southern MS into southern GA. Forecast soundings depict weak shear but a steep lapse rate environment favorable for diurnal hail. Cold downdrafts may also yield localized wind damage. To the north, storms will increase in coverage over much of the Carolinas into far southeast VA. Instability may be a bit marginal over north parts of this region due to early development. However, pockets of air mass recovery will support scattered strong storms, aided by the upper trough influence to the north. Over FL, strong heating beneath cool midlevel temperatures (500 mb around -11 C) will result in moderate instability. Isolated storms are likely to develop over the interior Peninsula, with large hail potential. Storms should move slowly given weak flow below 500 mb, and as such, the threat should remain relatively localized. ..Jewell.. 05/08/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z The Elevated area was expanded based on the latest observations and high-resolution ensemble forecast guidance. RH has already dropped to 15-30% in northwest Minnesota with wind gusts of 15-30 mph. In western North Dakota, RH is generally 25-35% with sustained south-southwest winds of 15-25 mph gusting 25-35 mph. With daytime heating and the approaching cold front, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected to develop across western North Dakota into northwest Minnesota this afternoon into the early evening. An IsoDryT area was added as well in western North Dakota. There is a 10-30% chance of isolated to scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms across western North Dakota late this afternoon into the evening along/ahead of an approaching cold front, with the area along the pre-frontal trough likely a genesis zone. Precipitable water values of 0.5-0.8", storm motions of 10-25 mph, and cloud bases of ~3km AGL will help limit wetting rainfall, although some training could be possible before winds aloft turn more westerly. Gusty and erratic winds are also possible with these storms. ..Nauslar.. 05/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1250 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across portions of western North Dakota. 05 UTC surface analysis shows a surface low developing in the lee of the Canadian Rockies, which will track to the east through the day. Southerly winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph across ND ahead of a southeastward moving cold front out of MT and Saskatchewan. Although isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along this boundary by early evening, there should be a 3-4 hour wind during the afternoon with warm temperatures in the low/mid 80s, RH values in the low 20s, and breezy conditions. Although spring green up is underway, dead grasses remain across the fuel landscape and are sufficiently dry to carry large fires (as evidenced by a couple of large fires in recent days across western ND). Similar wind/RH conditions could develop along the MT/Canadian border within the post-frontal regime, but wetting rainfall over the past three days has likely mitigated fuel status for the time being. Elsewhere across the country, widespread rain chances and weak gradient winds will limit additional fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z The Elevated area was expanded based on the latest observations and high-resolution ensemble forecast guidance. RH has already dropped to 15-30% in northwest Minnesota with wind gusts of 15-30 mph. In western North Dakota, RH is generally 25-35% with sustained south-southwest winds of 15-25 mph gusting 25-35 mph. With daytime heating and the approaching cold front, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected to develop across western North Dakota into northwest Minnesota this afternoon into the early evening. An IsoDryT area was added as well in western North Dakota. There is a 10-30% chance of isolated to scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms across western North Dakota late this afternoon into the evening along/ahead of an approaching cold front, with the area along the pre-frontal trough likely a genesis zone. Precipitable water values of 0.5-0.8", storm motions of 10-25 mph, and cloud bases of ~3km AGL will help limit wetting rainfall, although some training could be possible before winds aloft turn more westerly. Gusty and erratic winds are also possible with these storms. ..Nauslar.. 05/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1250 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across portions of western North Dakota. 05 UTC surface analysis shows a surface low developing in the lee of the Canadian Rockies, which will track to the east through the day. Southerly winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph across ND ahead of a southeastward moving cold front out of MT and Saskatchewan. Although isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along this boundary by early evening, there should be a 3-4 hour wind during the afternoon with warm temperatures in the low/mid 80s, RH values in the low 20s, and breezy conditions. Although spring green up is underway, dead grasses remain across the fuel landscape and are sufficiently dry to carry large fires (as evidenced by a couple of large fires in recent days across western ND). Similar wind/RH conditions could develop along the MT/Canadian border within the post-frontal regime, but wetting rainfall over the past three days has likely mitigated fuel status for the time being. Elsewhere across the country, widespread rain chances and weak gradient winds will limit additional fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-SOUTH INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST...AND PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and large hail are expected today over parts of the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians/Southeast, with isolated very large hail possible. Severe wind gusts and large to very large hail will also be possible across portions of west/south Texas including the Rio Grande Valley. ...Tennessee Valley/Southeast Appalachians into the Southeast... A positively tilted upper trough will extend from Ontario and the Northeast southwestward across the Great Lakes, OH/TN Valley, and into the Mid-South and southern Plains today. A weak surface low analyzed this morning over the mid MS Valley is forecast to gradually fill/lose definition through the afternoon/evening, as a weak cold front moves slowly south-southeastward through the period. Areas of at least scattered to broken clouds remain evident on recent visible satellite imagery from northern MS/western TN to the southern Appalachians. This will tend to hinder diurnal destabilization to some extent, but cool temperatures aloft (around -13 to -16C at 500 mb from area 12Z soundings) and modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates should compensate to some extent. Within the broader upper troughing, a weak embedded upper low/trough will continue to advance slowly eastward from the mid MS Valley to the TN Valley and southern Appalachians through this evening. Modest large-scale ascent associated with this feature, along with weak low-level convergence along the cold front, should be sufficient to aid in at least scattered convective development across these regions this afternoon. A combination of moderate instability and around 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear appear adequate to support some thunderstorm organization. Multiple supercells and short line segments/clusters should develop and spread east-southeast this afternoon/evening across parts of the Mid-South into the TN Valley and southern Appalachians. Large hail will be possible with sustained supercells, and isolated very large hail (potentially up to 2-2.5 inches in diameter) could also occur. Otherwise, severe/damaging winds will also be a concern with any clusters. Based on latest observational and guidance trends showing a favorable environment this afternoon and evening across a broader portion of the TN Valley/Southeast, the Slight Risk has been expanded westward some across the Mid-South/lower OH Valley where convection is initiating, and eastward to include more of north/central GA, and the western/central Carolinas into south-central VA. A somewhat separate area of strong to severe thunderstorms may focus along/near the Atlantic Coast sea breeze this afternoon from parts of coastal/southeast GA to the east-central FL Peninsula. Seasonably cool temperatures aloft combined with moderate to strong instability and a generally long/straight hodograph at mid/upper-levels should support some threat for both large hail and damaging winds with any cells/clusters that can form. ...Rio Grande Valley... Thunderstorms are ongoing late this morning across parts of west TX, in association with a weak shortwave trough over northern Mexico and related modest low-level warm/moist advection. Current expectations are for this activity to gradually increase in coverage and intensity across the Big Bend region and vicinity through the afternoon as daytime heating acts to further destabilize an already moist low-level airmass. While mid-level winds are not forecast to be overly strong with the low-amplitude shortwave trough, veering winds with height will support deep-layer shear around 35-45 kt. Supercells should be the primary convective mode initially, with a threat for scattered large to very large hail (generally 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter) and isolated severe winds. Additional intense convection should develop over the higher terrain of north-central to northeast Mexico, with some potential for this activity to spread east-southeastward across the Rio Grande Valley this afternoon and evening in a moderately to strongly unstable airmass. Large hail will continue to be a threat with any sustained supercells, and the threat for severe/damaging winds may also increase if a small cluster/MCS can develop and spread southeastward this evening and tonight. Finally, a separate area of strong to severe thunderstorms may develop through the afternoon along/near the coast and a stalled front in deep south TX. This activity would also pose some threat for severe hail/wind given a very moist/unstable airmass and sufficient deep-layer shear for organized updrafts. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 05/08/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu May 8 14:31:01 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu May 8 14:31:01 UTC 2025.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...SOUTHEAST AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and large hail are expected today over parts of the Tennessee Valley, and southern Appalachians, with hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter possible. Severe wind gusts and large hail will also be possible in other parts of the Southeast, as well as West/South Texas including the Rio Grande Valley. ...Tennessee Valley/Southern Appalachians to Southeast... A positively-tilted mid-level trough, with an upper low centered over the Ozarks this morning, will move through the Ohio and mid Mississippi Valleys today, and toward the Appalachians tonight. Surface dewpoints to the south of an advancing cold front will range from the mid 50s to the mid 60s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, moderate instability is expected to develop with minimal convective inhibition beneath relatively cool mid-level temperatures via the proximity of the upper cold pocket. Storms will steadily increase into the afternoon with some supercells and organizing clusters from western and central Kentucky into middle Tennessee, eastward into the southern Appalachians. These storms will develop south-southeastward into northern Alabama, northern Georgia and the western Carolinas by late afternoon. Large hail can be expected, with hail greater than 2 inches in diameter possible especially with the more discrete and intense supercells. Damaging wind gusts can also be expected regionally. Another relatively favorable area for severe storms may focus across southeast Georgia and nearby far southern South Carolina and/or far north Florida this afternoon through early evening. This will be coincident with somewhat stronger mid-level flow as compared to areas farther south across the northern/central Florida Peninsula, where isolated severe storms are still expected. Regarding northern Florida this morning, see Mesoscale Discussion 738. ...West/South Texas including Rio Grande Valley... A low-latitude shortwave trough will progress east-southeastward across far northern Mexico and along the Rio Grande Valley today and tonight. A corridor of moderate to strong instability will be in place across the Rio Grande Valley. As surface temperatures warm today, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the higher terrain of northern Mexico, with convection spreading eastward into and across the Rio Grande Valley, potentially with multiple rounds/corridors of severe weather possible across South Texas. Regarding short-term severe potential across South Texas, see Mesoscale Discussion 739. Strong deep-layer shear will contribute to supercells capable of large to very large hail and damaging wind gusts, especially if storms cluster/organize across the Rio Grande Valley later this afternoon into evening. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/08/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Southeast into Mid-Atlantic... By early next week, the cutoff upper low is forecast to become more progressive and move northeastward. As this occurs, convection will begin to overspread more of the Southeast into southern portions of Florida and eventually the Mid-Atlantic. At this time, the potential for several days of precipitation/cloud cover to impact surface heating does not suggest a substantive severe threat will exist. Furthermore, mid-level flow will weaken with time as the low lifts northeast. Moderate mid-level winds will remain over Florida until midweek. While Central/South Florida could see relatively higher severe potential on Tuesday into Wednesday, models still show limited destabilization on account of the uncertain surface heating described earlier. ...Northern Rockies/Plains... Strong upper-level winds will overspread the northern Rockies on Sunday. Mid-level ascent should be sufficient for potentially scattered storm development. Moisture still appears it may be limited, but some threat for severe wind gusts may accompany storms on Sunday in parts of southwest into central Montana. Uncertainty in storm intensity precludes highlights, however. As the trough continues to shift eastward, moisture return may be sufficient enough to support some potential for severe storms mid to late next week in parts of the Dakotas into Iowa/Minnesota. Aside from questions about low-level moisture, timing and structure of the trough varies in guidance and makes the coverage/intensity of storms too uncertain for highlights. ...Central/southern Plains... Model guidance continues to show the potential for a trough to impact these regions by mid/late next week. Timing and position of the stronger winds/greatest forcing continues to shift spatially, however. Given that both the GEFS/EPS ensembles show a trough in the mean next week does give some confidence in the general pattern. Available ML guidance has also picked up on the pattern shift and started to show an increased signal for severe potential. However, significant uncertainties remain. With the cutoff nature of the upper low in the lower Mississippi Valley, it is a feature that is not predictable in terms of how fast it will depart. If guidance is correct, it will move out right as the trough nears the Plains. This leaves little time for a deep moist layer to develop and move northward after a few days of offshore winds in the western Gulf. Low-level moisture forecasts ahead of the trough do show mid/upper 60s F dewpoints. That said, the moisture profile in the vertical is quite poor. It is not until next weekend that a signal for deeper moisture is evident in model guidance. Lastly, shortwave ridging will be in place ahead of the trough. Temperatures aloft do not appear likely to appreciably cool given the current forecast evolution of the trough and capping will be a concern. Trends in guidance will continue to be monitored. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Southeast into Mid-Atlantic... By early next week, the cutoff upper low is forecast to become more progressive and move northeastward. As this occurs, convection will begin to overspread more of the Southeast into southern portions of Florida and eventually the Mid-Atlantic. At this time, the potential for several days of precipitation/cloud cover to impact surface heating does not suggest a substantive severe threat will exist. Furthermore, mid-level flow will weaken with time as the low lifts northeast. Moderate mid-level winds will remain over Florida until midweek. While Central/South Florida could see relatively higher severe potential on Tuesday into Wednesday, models still show limited destabilization on account of the uncertain surface heating described earlier. ...Northern Rockies/Plains... Strong upper-level winds will overspread the northern Rockies on Sunday. Mid-level ascent should be sufficient for potentially scattered storm development. Moisture still appears it may be limited, but some threat for severe wind gusts may accompany storms on Sunday in parts of southwest into central Montana. Uncertainty in storm intensity precludes highlights, however. As the trough continues to shift eastward, moisture return may be sufficient enough to support some potential for severe storms mid to late next week in parts of the Dakotas into Iowa/Minnesota. Aside from questions about low-level moisture, timing and structure of the trough varies in guidance and makes the coverage/intensity of storms too uncertain for highlights. ...Central/southern Plains... Model guidance continues to show the potential for a trough to impact these regions by mid/late next week. Timing and position of the stronger winds/greatest forcing continues to shift spatially, however. Given that both the GEFS/EPS ensembles show a trough in the mean next week does give some confidence in the general pattern. Available ML guidance has also picked up on the pattern shift and started to show an increased signal for severe potential. However, significant uncertainties remain. With the cutoff nature of the upper low in the lower Mississippi Valley, it is a feature that is not predictable in terms of how fast it will depart. If guidance is correct, it will move out right as the trough nears the Plains. This leaves little time for a deep moist layer to develop and move northward after a few days of offshore winds in the western Gulf. Low-level moisture forecasts ahead of the trough do show mid/upper 60s F dewpoints. That said, the moisture profile in the vertical is quite poor. It is not until next weekend that a signal for deeper moisture is evident in model guidance. Lastly, shortwave ridging will be in place ahead of the trough. Temperatures aloft do not appear likely to appreciably cool given the current forecast evolution of the trough and capping will be a concern. Trends in guidance will continue to be monitored. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...NORTH FLORIDA...FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible in parts of northern Florida and southern Georgia on Saturday. ...Synopsis... The cutoff upper low in the lower Mississippi Valley is forecast to retrograde westward on Saturday. A warm front will be roughly parallel to the Gulf Coast. Warm air advection across the warm front and subtle shortwave perturbations around the upper low will promote widespread precipitation in the central/eastern Gulf Coast regions. A trough will push into the Northwest and northern Rockies with strong mid-level winds moving into western Montana towards Sunday morning. ...Florida Panhandle...North Florida...southern Georgia... Moderate southwesterly flow aloft will persist through the day. There will be concern for cloud cover from the convection to the west and within the Gulf itself. However, a plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates will extent into parts of central/northeast Florida. Where surface heating can occur, a few strong to severe storms are possible. Large hail and damaging winds would be the primary threats, but a tornado could occur near the warm front. Upper level winds will not be overly strong and shear will be focused from low to mid-levels. This will potentially lead to rain negatively impacting inflow of storms. ...Southwest Montana... With the approach of mid-level shortwave trough, isolated convection will likely develop within the higher terrain. Moisture will be limited, but cold temperatures aloft will promote weak MLCAPE in some areas. A few strong to near-severe gusts could occur, but storm coverage/intensity does not currently warrant probabilities. ..Wendt.. 05/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...NORTH FLORIDA...FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible in parts of northern Florida and southern Georgia on Saturday. ...Synopsis... The cutoff upper low in the lower Mississippi Valley is forecast to retrograde westward on Saturday. A warm front will be roughly parallel to the Gulf Coast. Warm air advection across the warm front and subtle shortwave perturbations around the upper low will promote widespread precipitation in the central/eastern Gulf Coast regions. A trough will push into the Northwest and northern Rockies with strong mid-level winds moving into western Montana towards Sunday morning. ...Florida Panhandle...North Florida...southern Georgia... Moderate southwesterly flow aloft will persist through the day. There will be concern for cloud cover from the convection to the west and within the Gulf itself. However, a plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates will extent into parts of central/northeast Florida. Where surface heating can occur, a few strong to severe storms are possible. Large hail and damaging winds would be the primary threats, but a tornado could occur near the warm front. Upper level winds will not be overly strong and shear will be focused from low to mid-levels. This will potentially lead to rain negatively impacting inflow of storms. ...Southwest Montana... With the approach of mid-level shortwave trough, isolated convection will likely develop within the higher terrain. Moisture will be limited, but cold temperatures aloft will promote weak MLCAPE in some areas. A few strong to near-severe gusts could occur, but storm coverage/intensity does not currently warrant probabilities. ..Wendt.. 05/08/2025 Read more

MD 0737 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN AR
Mesoscale Discussion 0737 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Areas affected...Parts of central/eastern AR Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 080622Z - 080745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A threat for isolated hail and damaging wind may persist overnight. DISCUSSION...A small storm cluster with a history of producing isolated hail and wind damage has persisted across AR late tonight, with evolution into primarily a single supercell along a propagating outflow. This cluster appears to be located in the vicinity of a weak baroclinic zone, with slightly warmer temperatures and greater instability noted downstream into east-central AR. Deep-layer flow/shear is sufficient for storm organization, downstream of a midlevel cyclone centered over southeast KS. Ascent attendant to the midlevel cyclone and modestly favorable downstream instability could support maintenance of the ongoing small cluster through part of the overnight, with a continued threat of localized hail and damaging gusts. ..Dean/Guyer.. 05/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK... LAT...LON 34969199 35139209 35309208 35539188 35739166 35719067 35659016 35349020 35069032 34889052 34899086 34869107 34879140 34889162 34969199 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more