SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... An evolving narrow corridor of isolated showers and thunderstorms along a cold front will progress through southern Minnesota/northern Wisconsin through today. Expected PWAT values of 0.8 to 1.0 inch will support a mix of wet and dry thunderstorm cores through the afternoon so Isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights were withheld. Otherwise, previous forecast (see below) is evolving as expected. ..Williams.. 05/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... Amplified mid-level flow will continue across the CONUS today as a broad upper low gradually moves eastward. Western US ridging will also amplify, forcing stronger flow aloft over the northern US. At the surface, a cold front will move south across the Northern Plains and Great Lakes. Relatively mild and wet conditions will prevent broader fire-weather concerns over much of the country, though a few drier thunderstorms are possible along the cold front. ...Northern Plains and Great Lakes... As the cold front progresses southward, isolated thunderstorms are likely to form along and ahead of it through the heat of the day. With relatively modest moisture (PWAT values around 0.8 inches) these storms are expected to be relatively high based. A mixed mode of wet/occasional dry storms is possible with some lightning risk over recent dry fuels. While coverage of the drier storms appears limited, increasingly dry and breezy conditions behind the cold front could allow for some lightning ignitions and localized fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA/FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast, especially from the eastern Florida Peninsula through southeast Georgia, and across northeastern North Carolina/far southeast Virginia. ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows a pair of cyclones embedded within a large positively titled upper trough extending from the southern Plains through the Northeast. The northernmost/easternmost cyclone is centered over the Lower Great Lakes vicinity, and is forecast to move gradually eastward throughout the day, ending the period over southern New England. An associated surface low, which is currently centered over eastern NJ, is forecast to progress northeastward while becoming increasingly aligned with the mid-level cyclone. A cold front extends southwestward from this low across VA and then back westward across KY, southern IL, and central MO. As the low moves northeastward, this front is expected to gradually push southward/southeastward, moving through much of the Mid-Atlantic by this evening. The southernmost/westernmost embedded cyclone is currently centered over southern AR, and the expectation is for the cyclone to shift southeastward throughout the day, ending the period over the Lower MS Valley. Primary surface low associated with this system is currently over the northwest Gulf. This low is forecast to progress slowly eastward along the central Gulf coast, remaining just off shore and likely reaching just off AL/MS border intersection by early tomorrow morning. ...Central Gulf Coast into FL... A modest, convectively enhanced vorticity maximum is forecast to move from the central FL Panhandle into southeast GA/northern FL today, well ahead of the mid-level cyclone and associated surface low described in the synopsis. Localized ascent attendant to this features coupled with modest large-scale forcing for ascent and airmass destabilization will result in early-afternoon thunderstorm development, particularly along any sea breeze boundary that develops. Vertical shear will be modest, resulting in a mostly multicellular mode. Even so, updrafts are still expected to be strong enough to produce damaging downbursts and isolated large hail. Later tonight, some additional organization/strengthening of a convective line near the surface low is possible. Some strengthening of the low-level flow could occur at the same time, resulting in a low-probability tornado risk along the coast from AL into the western and central FL Peninsula. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas... Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated across the region, with the highest coverage from the VA Tidewater into east-central NC, where forcing along the cold front will be strongest. The strongest shear is anticipated across this region as well, but the overall magnitude should still be modest, with most guidance suggesting deep-layer shear around 35 kt. Buoyancy will be modest as well, with MLCAPE likely maximizing around 800 to 1000 J/kg. These environmental conditions support the potential for a few stronger, more organized updrafts capable of damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail. ..Mosier/Squitieri.. 05/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FL PENINSULA AND FAR SOUTHEAST VA/NORTHEAST NC... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts are possible across parts of the Southeast, but especially areas such as the northern Florida Peninsula and eastern North Carolina/far southeast Virginia. ...Florida/coastal Southeast... Weak height falls and strengthening southwesterly winds aloft will occur later today into tonight preceding the upper trough along the middle Gulf Coast and lower Mississippi River Valley, with an MCS over the west-central/north-central Gulf also a factor. The relatively greatest destabilization is expected today across the northern/central Florida Peninsula and nearby Georgia, where guidance is in generally good agreement that MLCAPE will peak in the 2000-3000 J/kg range this afternoon. As instability increases during the day, thunderstorms are expected to develop with sea breeze influences, with isolated large hail and damaging winds possible. Elsewhere, influences from the aforementioned MCS over the Gulf should limited severe potential farther west along the middle Gulf Coast, although some measure of recovery and weak cyclogenesis could occur later tonight toward far southeast Louisiana to Florida Panhandle vicinity. ...Carolinas/southeast Virginia/southern Maryland... The closed upper low will shift generally eastward over the central/northern Appalachians and northern Mid-Atlantic region today, with a cyclonically curved belt of strong westerlies in its base and attendant mid-level cold pocket (-18C to -24C at 500 mb). Some showers/possibly a thunderstorm will exit the region and move into the Atlantic today, with modest air mass recovery/destabilization in its wake preceding a surface low/reinforcing front. While the magnitude of the severe risk is not entirely clear, the main opportunity for later-day strong/locally severe storm development would appear to be across far southeast Virginia and far northeast North Carolina. Strong wind profiles would support organized storms pending sufficient destabilization, with potential for severe hail and damaging winds, at least on an isolated basis, primarily from mid-afternoon through sunset or early evening. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/09/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... Based on the latest medium-range guidance, it appears that large-scale mid/upper troughing will continue digging inland of the Pacific coast, before gradually turning eastward toward the Rockies during the early portion of next week. While this probably will be accompanied by the development of modestly deep surface troughing across the Great Plains, appreciable low-level moisture return, in the wake of a mid-level low/trough slowly accelerating northeast of the lower Mississippi Valley, through parts of the Mid South and Ohio Valley, remains uncertain. Even into mid-week, when it appears that the troughing may begin to emerge from the Intermountain West/Rockies, while the downstream troughing only slowly progresses across the Mid Atlantic, moisture return (and destabilization) to the vicinity of the stronger forcing for ascent may remain a potential limiting factor to severe thunderstorm development. Toward next Thursday/Friday, there does appear consensus that stronger destabilization may begin to become better coupled with large-scale forcing for ascent across the upper Mississippi Valley/Midwest into Ohio Valley, as the mid-level troughing progresses northeastward and eastward, around the periphery of mid/upper ridging building north-northeast of the lower Mississippi Valley. This appears to include at least a conditional risk for organized severe convection, including a few supercells. Although lingering uncertainties preclude introducing 15 percent or greater severe probabilities at this time, this may change in later outlooks for this period. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL AND NRN FL...SWRN GA...SRN/WRN AL...SRN AND CNTRL MS...SERN LA...ERN MT...NWRN SD...WRN ND... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong thunderstorms may impact the eastern Gulf coast region on Sunday, posing at least some risk for severe hail and locally strong surface gusts. Additional thunderstorms may be accompanied by strong to severe surface gusts across parts of eastern Montana into the western Dakotas late Sunday afternoon and evening. ...Discussion... Little change to the general large-scale pattern is expected from Saturday into Sunday, with much of North America remaining under the influence of amplified, split westerlies - stronger across the northern mid-latitudes than across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes. Within this regime, significant mid-level troughing, with at least a couple of smaller-scale embedded perturbations, is forecast to begin digging inland of the northern U.S. Pacific coast. It appears that the leading edge of broad downstream ridging across the interior of North America will overspread the St. Lawrence Valley and Northeast. In lower latitudes, the center of a broad mid-level low may begin a very slow acceleration back to the northeast, across the lower Mississippi Valley vicinity. In lower levels, an initial weak low may weaken further across the Canadian Prairies into northern Ontario, as surface troughing deepens upstream, to the lee of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies. The center of cool surface ridging, initially across the lower Great Lakes vicinity, is likely to redevelop southeastward off the northern Mid Atlantic coast. Near the southwestern periphery of this surface ridging, a broad area of lower surface pressure may shift inland off the Gulf into the lower Mississippi Valley, accompanied by boundary-layer moistening inland of eastern Gulf coastal areas. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/eastern Gulf Coast... Beneath the mid-level cold core of the low, and the downstream modest, difluent southwesterly mid/upper flow, models suggest that thermodynamic profiles by Sunday afternoon may become conducive to widely scattered strong thunderstorms with potential to produce some severe hail and locally strong surface gusts. This is expected to generally become focused within the weak surface troughing across parts of the western Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama into southeastern Louisiana and southern/central Mississippi, and perhaps along a convective outflow boundary advancing into Florida coastal areas north of Tampa. ...Northern Rockies/Great Plains... Downstream of the of large-scale mid/upper troughing digging into the Northwest, it appears that forcing for ascent could support scattered high-based thunderstorm activity, particularly within an evolving deeply mixed boundary layer characterize by large surface temperature/dew point spreads, but with weak CAPE, to the lee of the northern Rockies. The NAM, perhaps more so than other guidance, suggests that consolidating outflow, associated with a clustering of storms across parts of southeastern Montana into the western Dakotas, aided by evaporative cooling/some melting and downward transport of momentum, may become sufficient for a few strong to severe surface gusts by Sunday evening. ..Kerr.. 05/09/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will shift into the Plains on Saturday, as a compact shortwave trough exits the Northeast. Beneath the building ridge, an upper low will meander about the Southeastern US as the mid-level flow pattern remains blocked. Troughing will slowly deepen over the eastern Pacific amplifying the upper-level pattern. ...Northern Plains... Despite the relatively stagnant upper air pattern strong flow aloft will begin to move over the Ridge across the Rockies and into the northern US. This will support slow deepening of a lee trough Saturday afternoon. Low-level winds will veer to southerly and strengthen through the weekend as dry surface conditions develop. While widespread critical RH and winds are not expected, a few hours of southerly gusts of 15-20 mph and RH below 35% are possible. This appears most likely over parts of the Dakotas and western MN. As fuels continue to dry, locally elevated fire-weather conditions may develop. However, the lack of stronger winds and overlap with the driest fuels should prevent more widespread concerns for Saturday. ..Lyons.. 05/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will shift into the Plains on Saturday, as a compact shortwave trough exits the Northeast. Beneath the building ridge, an upper low will meander about the Southeastern US as the mid-level flow pattern remains blocked. Troughing will slowly deepen over the eastern Pacific amplifying the upper-level pattern. ...Northern Plains... Despite the relatively stagnant upper air pattern strong flow aloft will begin to move over the Ridge across the Rockies and into the northern US. This will support slow deepening of a lee trough Saturday afternoon. Low-level winds will veer to southerly and strengthen through the weekend as dry surface conditions develop. While widespread critical RH and winds are not expected, a few hours of southerly gusts of 15-20 mph and RH below 35% are possible. This appears most likely over parts of the Dakotas and western MN. As fuels continue to dry, locally elevated fire-weather conditions may develop. However, the lack of stronger winds and overlap with the driest fuels should prevent more widespread concerns for Saturday. ..Lyons.. 05/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Amplified mid-level flow will continue across the CONUS today as a broad upper low gradually moves eastward. Western US ridging will also amplify, forcing stronger flow aloft over the northern US. At the surface, a cold front will move south across the Northern Plains and Great Lakes. Relatively mild and wet conditions will prevent broader fire-weather concerns over much of the country, though a few drier thunderstorms are possible along the cold front. ...Northern Plains and Great Lakes... As the cold front progresses southward, isolated thunderstorms are likely to form along and ahead of it through the heat of the day. With relatively modest moisture (PWAT values around 0.8 inches) these storms are expected to be relatively high based. A mixed mode of wet/occasional dry storms is possible with some lightning risk over recent dry fuels. While coverage of the drier storms appears limited, increasingly dry and breezy conditions behind the cold front could allow for some lightning ignitions and localized fire-weather concerns. ..Lyons.. 05/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Amplified mid-level flow will continue across the CONUS today as a broad upper low gradually moves eastward. Western US ridging will also amplify, forcing stronger flow aloft over the northern US. At the surface, a cold front will move south across the Northern Plains and Great Lakes. Relatively mild and wet conditions will prevent broader fire-weather concerns over much of the country, though a few drier thunderstorms are possible along the cold front. ...Northern Plains and Great Lakes... As the cold front progresses southward, isolated thunderstorms are likely to form along and ahead of it through the heat of the day. With relatively modest moisture (PWAT values around 0.8 inches) these storms are expected to be relatively high based. A mixed mode of wet/occasional dry storms is possible with some lightning risk over recent dry fuels. While coverage of the drier storms appears limited, increasingly dry and breezy conditions behind the cold front could allow for some lightning ignitions and localized fire-weather concerns. ..Lyons.. 05/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL AND NORTHERN FL...SRN GA...AND WRN INTO CNTRL MT... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of northern and central Florida and adjacent southern Georgia on Saturday. Additional strong thunderstorms may impact parts of western into central Montana. Some of these storms may be accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather. ...Discussion... It appears that much of North America will remain under the influence of split, amplified westerlies through this period and beyond, with flow in the northern mid-latitudes remaining stronger than in the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes. Within this regime, a significant mid-level trough is forecast to continue digging offshore of the British Columbia coast toward the Pacific Northwest, preceded inland by a less prominent, northeastward accelerating perturbation into/across and east-northeast of the Canadian Rockies. Models indicate that the lead perturbation may be accompanied by weak cyclogenesis to the lee of the Canadian and adjacent northern U.S. Rockies, as it begins to progress around the western periphery of large-scale mid-level ridging shifting across/east of the Canadian Prairies, northern U.S. Great Plains and Upper Midwest. As the ridging overspreads the interior northern tier of the U.S., it appears that a broad mid-level low, initially centered just inland of the north central Gulf coast, will move little or perhaps retrograde to the west and southwest Saturday through Saturday night. An associated broad, weak low-level baroclinic zone may remain quasi-stationary near/just offshore of the Carolina coast through northern Florida, to a weak surface low near/offshore of the southeastern Louisiana coast, but this remains a bit uncertain due to model spread. Higher moisture content air will generally be confined to a corridor focused above/to the cool side of the frontal zone, and within a warm sector plume extending east of the mid-level low southward toward the tropical latitudes. ...Southeast... In additional to the uncertain details concerning the north central Gulf frontal low and downstream frontal movement, spread evident in model output concerning the sub-synoptic developments adds uncertainty to the convective forecast. However, while the mid-level cold core remains well upstream, it does appear that much of northern/central Florida and adjacent portions of the Gulf States will remain under the influence of a broadly difluent, modest southwesterly mid/upper flow regime. Although higher moisture content and more widespread convective development may tend to remain focused well offshore, across the northeastern Gulf, the front zone and inland advancing sea-breezes might provide focus for widely scattered strong thunderstorm development during the day. Aided by modestly steep lower/mid-level lapse rates, the environment may become conducive for a few of these storms to pose a risk for severe hail and wind. Some model output suggests that low-level flow northeast of the surface low might contribute to hodographs conducive to some risk for a tornado, mainly across and west of the Florida Big Bend vicinity. ...Montana... There is a notable signal within model output concerning the potential for the initiation of thunderstorm activity across the higher terrain of western Montana, and the subsequent evolution of an upscale growing cluster into/across north central Montana Saturday afternoon and evening. Moisture/instability within thermodynamic profiles characterized by the evolution of a deep and well-mixed boundary is forecast to be weak. But shear/momentum associated with 40-50+ kt west-southwesterly mid/upper flow may become conducive to a few storms initially posing a risk for small to marginally severe hail, before strong to severe wind gusts become the primary potential hazard until storms weaken Saturday night. ..Kerr.. 05/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL AND NORTHERN FL...SRN GA...AND WRN INTO CNTRL MT... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of northern and central Florida and adjacent southern Georgia on Saturday. Additional strong thunderstorms may impact parts of western into central Montana. Some of these storms may be accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather. ...Discussion... It appears that much of North America will remain under the influence of split, amplified westerlies through this period and beyond, with flow in the northern mid-latitudes remaining stronger than in the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes. Within this regime, a significant mid-level trough is forecast to continue digging offshore of the British Columbia coast toward the Pacific Northwest, preceded inland by a less prominent, northeastward accelerating perturbation into/across and east-northeast of the Canadian Rockies. Models indicate that the lead perturbation may be accompanied by weak cyclogenesis to the lee of the Canadian and adjacent northern U.S. Rockies, as it begins to progress around the western periphery of large-scale mid-level ridging shifting across/east of the Canadian Prairies, northern U.S. Great Plains and Upper Midwest. As the ridging overspreads the interior northern tier of the U.S., it appears that a broad mid-level low, initially centered just inland of the north central Gulf coast, will move little or perhaps retrograde to the west and southwest Saturday through Saturday night. An associated broad, weak low-level baroclinic zone may remain quasi-stationary near/just offshore of the Carolina coast through northern Florida, to a weak surface low near/offshore of the southeastern Louisiana coast, but this remains a bit uncertain due to model spread. Higher moisture content air will generally be confined to a corridor focused above/to the cool side of the frontal zone, and within a warm sector plume extending east of the mid-level low southward toward the tropical latitudes. ...Southeast... In additional to the uncertain details concerning the north central Gulf frontal low and downstream frontal movement, spread evident in model output concerning the sub-synoptic developments adds uncertainty to the convective forecast. However, while the mid-level cold core remains well upstream, it does appear that much of northern/central Florida and adjacent portions of the Gulf States will remain under the influence of a broadly difluent, modest southwesterly mid/upper flow regime. Although higher moisture content and more widespread convective development may tend to remain focused well offshore, across the northeastern Gulf, the front zone and inland advancing sea-breezes might provide focus for widely scattered strong thunderstorm development during the day. Aided by modestly steep lower/mid-level lapse rates, the environment may become conducive for a few of these storms to pose a risk for severe hail and wind. Some model output suggests that low-level flow northeast of the surface low might contribute to hodographs conducive to some risk for a tornado, mainly across and west of the Florida Big Bend vicinity. ...Montana... There is a notable signal within model output concerning the potential for the initiation of thunderstorm activity across the higher terrain of western Montana, and the subsequent evolution of an upscale growing cluster into/across north central Montana Saturday afternoon and evening. Moisture/instability within thermodynamic profiles characterized by the evolution of a deep and well-mixed boundary is forecast to be weak. But shear/momentum associated with 40-50+ kt west-southwesterly mid/upper flow may become conducive to a few storms initially posing a risk for small to marginally severe hail, before strong to severe wind gusts become the primary potential hazard until storms weaken Saturday night. ..Kerr.. 05/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe gusts will be possible today across parts of eastern North Carolina. Thunderstorms with potential for severe gusts and hail may also form over eastern Florida. A marginal severe threat is also expected to develop outside of the Slight Risk areas from parts of the Southeast northeastward to southern Maryland. ...Southeast... At mid-levels today, flow will remain west-southwesterly across the southeastern U.S. At the surface, a very moist airmass will remain from Florida to the central Gulf Coast, where surface dewpoints will be from the mid 60s to lower 70s F. The greatest instability is forecast across the eastern Florida Peninsula, where the models are in generally good agreement that MLCAPE will peak in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. As instability increases during the day, thunderstorms are expected to develop along a sea breeze boundary in eastern Florida. RAP forecast soundings near the boundary have 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 40 knot range with some directional shear at low-levels. In addition, 0-3 km lapse rates are forecast to peak in the 7.5 to 8 C/km range. This should be enough for a wind-damage threat with the stronger cells that form near the boundary. The potential for severe gusts is expected to be concentrated in the mid to late afternoon near max heating. A marginal and isolated severe threat will also be possible westward across parts of the central Gulf Coast states during the afternoon. ...Carolinas/Southeast Virginia/Southern Maryland... A positively-tilted mid-level trough will move through the Ohio Valley today, as west-southwesterly flow remains in place across the Atlantic Seaboard. A surface low will move northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic, as a cold front moves across the Atlantic Coastal Plains. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be in the 60s F. As surface heating takes place during the day, destabilization is expected near the Atlantic coast in the eastern Carolinas. MLCAPE is expected to peak in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range during the early afternoon. RAP forecast soundings at 20Z in eastern North Carolina have 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, with 0-3 km lapse rates in the 8 to 8.5 C/km range. In addition, mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep around 700 mb. This environment could support supercells with potential for large hail and severe wind gusts. The threat should end by early evening, as the more favorable environment moves offshore. ..Broyles/Lyons.. 05/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe gusts will be possible today across parts of eastern North Carolina. Thunderstorms with potential for severe gusts and hail may also form over eastern Florida. A marginal severe threat is also expected to develop outside of the Slight Risk areas from parts of the Southeast northeastward to southern Maryland. ...Southeast... At mid-levels today, flow will remain west-southwesterly across the southeastern U.S. At the surface, a very moist airmass will remain from Florida to the central Gulf Coast, where surface dewpoints will be from the mid 60s to lower 70s F. The greatest instability is forecast across the eastern Florida Peninsula, where the models are in generally good agreement that MLCAPE will peak in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. As instability increases during the day, thunderstorms are expected to develop along a sea breeze boundary in eastern Florida. RAP forecast soundings near the boundary have 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 40 knot range with some directional shear at low-levels. In addition, 0-3 km lapse rates are forecast to peak in the 7.5 to 8 C/km range. This should be enough for a wind-damage threat with the stronger cells that form near the boundary. The potential for severe gusts is expected to be concentrated in the mid to late afternoon near max heating. A marginal and isolated severe threat will also be possible westward across parts of the central Gulf Coast states during the afternoon. ...Carolinas/Southeast Virginia/Southern Maryland... A positively-tilted mid-level trough will move through the Ohio Valley today, as west-southwesterly flow remains in place across the Atlantic Seaboard. A surface low will move northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic, as a cold front moves across the Atlantic Coastal Plains. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be in the 60s F. As surface heating takes place during the day, destabilization is expected near the Atlantic coast in the eastern Carolinas. MLCAPE is expected to peak in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range during the early afternoon. RAP forecast soundings at 20Z in eastern North Carolina have 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, with 0-3 km lapse rates in the 8 to 8.5 C/km range. In addition, mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep around 700 mb. This environment could support supercells with potential for large hail and severe wind gusts. The threat should end by early evening, as the more favorable environment moves offshore. ..Broyles/Lyons.. 05/09/2025 Read more

WW 0242 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 242 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE TRI TO 30 WSW HKY TO 30 E CLT TO 15 W SOP TO 20 N SOP TO 25 E DAN TO 10 SW ROA. ..HART..05/09/25 ATTN...WFO...FFC...GSP...RAH...RNK...CAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 242 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC011-015-047-055-057-083-085-105-111-115-117-119-123-129-137- 139-147-187-213-227-241-257-281-291-295-311-313-090340- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANKS BARTOW CATOOSA CHATTOOGA CHEROKEE DADE DAWSON ELBERT FANNIN FLOYD FORSYTH FRANKLIN GILMER GORDON HABERSHAM HALL HART LUMPKIN MURRAY PICKENS RABUN STEPHENS TOWNS UNION WALKER WHITE WHITFIELD NCC007-021-037-045-051-071-075-085-087-089-093-099-101-105-111- 113-115-119-121-125-149-153-161-163-165-173-175-179-199- 090340- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0240 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 240 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W CHA TO 25 SSW TYS TO 15 NNE HSS TO 15 S TRI TO 30 SSE TRI. ..HART..05/09/25 ATTN...WFO...JKL...MRX...RLX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 240 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC039-043-090240- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE CLAY TNC011-019-029-059-065-115-139-171-179-090240- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRADLEY CARTER COCKE GREENE HAMILTON MARION POLK UNICOI WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS...THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and large hail will continue this evening over parts of the Tennessee Valley, southern Appalachians and Southeast. Severe wind gusts and large hail are also expected across parts of south Texas, where hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. ...Tennessee Valley/Southern Appalachians/Southeast... Latest water vapor imagery shows a positively-tilted mid-level trough over the Ohio Valley, with an east-to-west oriented plume of mid-level moisture from the mid Mississippi Valley into the south and central Appalachians. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front is analyzed in the Ohio Valley. To the south of the front over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, surface dewpoints are in the mid 50s to the mid 60s F. The RAP has moderate instability in place from the Tennessee Valley eastward into the southern Appalachians and southward into the Gulf Coast states. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing, concentrated along the northern edge of moderate instability from Kentucky and Tennessee eastward into western North Carolina. RAP forecast soundings in this vicinity early this evening have 0-6 km shear ranging from 35 to 45 knots, mostly due to speed shear in the mid-levels. This, combined with 0-3 km lapse rates in the 7.5 to 8 C/km range, should be favorable for severe gusts with the stronger cells. The shear will also support supercell development with large hail possible. The severe threat should become more isolated later this evening as instability decreases across the region. ...South Texas... A shortwave trough, with multiple vorticity maximums, appears to be located in the lower Rio Grande Valley, according to water vapor imagery. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are ongoing ahead of the trough from near Laredo extending eastward onto the Texas Coastal Plain. From the storms southward, moderate instability is analyzed by the RAP, with MLCAPE estimated to be in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. The airmass is very moist with surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F. Within this moist airmass, RAP forecast soundings early this evening have 0-6 km shear near 50 knots, with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.5 C/km. This environment will support supercells with large hail, and hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible within the more intense cores. Isolated severe gusts may also occur within the stronger downdrafts. The ongoing severe storms will track southeastward across the remainder of south Texas this evening...see MCD 749. ..Broyles.. 05/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS...THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and large hail will continue this evening over parts of the Tennessee Valley, southern Appalachians and Southeast. Severe wind gusts and large hail are also expected across parts of south Texas, where hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. ...Tennessee Valley/Southern Appalachians/Southeast... Latest water vapor imagery shows a positively-tilted mid-level trough over the Ohio Valley, with an east-to-west oriented plume of mid-level moisture from the mid Mississippi Valley into the south and central Appalachians. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front is analyzed in the Ohio Valley. To the south of the front over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, surface dewpoints are in the mid 50s to the mid 60s F. The RAP has moderate instability in place from the Tennessee Valley eastward into the southern Appalachians and southward into the Gulf Coast states. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing, concentrated along the northern edge of moderate instability from Kentucky and Tennessee eastward into western North Carolina. RAP forecast soundings in this vicinity early this evening have 0-6 km shear ranging from 35 to 45 knots, mostly due to speed shear in the mid-levels. This, combined with 0-3 km lapse rates in the 7.5 to 8 C/km range, should be favorable for severe gusts with the stronger cells. The shear will also support supercell development with large hail possible. The severe threat should become more isolated later this evening as instability decreases across the region. ...South Texas... A shortwave trough, with multiple vorticity maximums, appears to be located in the lower Rio Grande Valley, according to water vapor imagery. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are ongoing ahead of the trough from near Laredo extending eastward onto the Texas Coastal Plain. From the storms southward, moderate instability is analyzed by the RAP, with MLCAPE estimated to be in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. The airmass is very moist with surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F. Within this moist airmass, RAP forecast soundings early this evening have 0-6 km shear near 50 knots, with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.5 C/km. This environment will support supercells with large hail, and hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible within the more intense cores. Isolated severe gusts may also occur within the stronger downdrafts. The ongoing severe storms will track southeastward across the remainder of south Texas this evening...see MCD 749. ..Broyles.. 05/09/2025 Read more

WW 0242 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 242 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE TRI TO 20 SSE HKY TO 35 NE CLT TO 15 ENE GSO TO 20 NNW DAN TO 10 SSW ROA. ..HART..05/09/25 ATTN...WFO...FFC...GSP...RAH...RNK...CAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 242 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC011-015-047-055-057-083-085-105-111-115-117-119-123-129-137- 139-147-187-213-227-241-257-281-291-295-311-313-090140- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANKS BARTOW CATOOSA CHATTOOGA CHEROKEE DADE DAWSON ELBERT FANNIN FLOYD FORSYTH FRANKLIN GILMER GORDON HABERSHAM HALL HART LUMPKIN MURRAY PICKENS RABUN STEPHENS TOWNS UNION WALKER WHITE WHITFIELD NCC001-007-021-025-033-037-045-051-071-075-085-087-089-093-099- 105-111-113-115-119-121-123-125-135-145-149-151-153-161-165-167- 173-175-179-199-090140- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 242 SEVERE TSTM GA NC SC VA 082020Z - 090400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 242 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 420 PM EDT Thu May 8 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Georgia Western and Central North Carolina Western and Northern South Carolina Southwest Virginia * Effective this Thursday afternoon from 420 PM until Midnight EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue developing this afternoon and evening. The most intense cores will be capable of producing large hail up to 1-2 inches in diameter. There should also be some potential for a cluster to develop later this evening and pose a greater threat for severe/damaging winds, with peak gusts up to 60-70 mph. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles southwest of Hot Springs NC to 40 miles south southeast of Danville VA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 238...WW 239...WW 240...WW 241... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0240 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 240 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW CHA TO 40 NNE TYS TO 40 NW TRI TO 45 E JKL. ..HART..05/09/25 ATTN...WFO...JKL...MRX...RLX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 240 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC195-090140- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE PIKE NCC039-043-090140- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE CLAY TNC001-007-009-011-019-029-057-059-063-065-067-073-089-091-093- 105-107-115-121-123-139-143-145-153-155-163-171-173-179- 090140- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON BLEDSOE BLOUNT BRADLEY CARTER COCKE Read more