SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MONTANA HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe wind gusts are expected across the northern Rockies to Montana High Plains from mid-afternoon into the evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible across the Southeast today through tonight. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains and northeast Great Basin... Strengthening southwesterly flow aloft is anticipated throughout the day as the upper low off the Pacific Northwest coast progresses eastward and a lead shortwave trough pivots through OR/northern CA into the northern Rockies. Strong heating will help destabilize the airmass downstream from the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains. Large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough, coupled with orographic lift, will help initiate storms across the high terrain during the afternoon within this destabilized airmass. Environmental conditions suggest some supercells are possible with this initial development, with damaging gusts and isolated hail as the primary risk. A low-probability corridor of tornado potential exists across southeast ID. The storms should encounter an increasingly mixed environment with eastern/northeastern extent into central MT, with strong gusts becoming the primary severe hazard as storms trend towards more outflow-dominant linear structures. ...Southeast States... Recent satellite imagery and surface observations continue to show the vertically stacked low over the Lower MS Valley, with broad swath of southwesterly flow extending south and east of this low from the central Gulf into FL. Surface features have become increasingly diffuse across the Southeast and FL over the past two days given the persistence of this low and associated precipitation, but recent surface analysis shows a weak and wavy stationary boundary extending from the low over the ArkLaMiss southeastward to the AL/FL Panhandle border before arcing back northeastward across southern GA. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing and the general expectation is for scattered to numerous thunderstorms to persist across much of the region throughout the day. Widespread cloudiness should limit heating, but ample low-level moisture will still support modest buoyancy. Shear will gradually increase as the low to mid-level flow strengthens this afternoon and evening, which could lead to some transient storm organization, but in general convection is expected to be disorganized, outflow-dominated multicells. Even so, isolated damaging gusts are possible. Some low-probability tornado potential exists as well, particularly along the stationary boundary across southern GA around 00Z. Farther northwest across AL/MS and into eastern AR, the airmass is forecast to destabilize this afternoon as heating occurs beneath cool temperatures aloft. Even with the cooler temperature aloft, overall buoyancy will be modest given the somewhat cool low to mid-level thermodynamic profile. Even so, a nearly unidirectional southeasterly wind profile with moderate deep-layer speed shear could support brief updraft organization. As a result, a few cells may briefly produce marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts, and possibly some funnel/brief tornado potential, from late afternoon through early/mid-evening. ..Mosier/Wendt.. 05/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MONTANA HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe wind gusts are expected across the northern Rockies to Montana High Plains fom mid-afternoon into the evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible across the Southeast today through tonight. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains and northeast Great Basin... The leading portion of an eastward-transitioning upper-level trough will overspread the northern Rockies and northern Great Basin later today and tonight, with preceding height falls and a regionally strengthening 60-80 kt southwesterly mid-level jet. These trends in conjunction with orographic influences/differential heating will lead to another round of isolated to scattered thunderstorms by mid/late afternoon. Similar to Saturday, severe-caliber wind gusts will be the primary hazard as storms develop in association with deeply mixed boundary layers, especially with eastward extent from southeast Idaho to central/eastern Montana. Corridors of modest buoyancy, coupled with moderate to strong deep-layer southwesterly speed shear, could yield a few high-based supercell structures producing small to marginally severe hail. This should be focused from the Oregon/Washington/Idaho border vicinity into central Montana, and separately over southeast Idaho into Yellowstone. ...Southeast States... A persistent, slow-moving, and essentially vertically stacked low will persist, centered over the ArkLaMiss vicinity, with a preceding belt of moderately strong mid-level winds extending over the northeast Gulf to the coastal Southeast. This will overlie a moderately moist warm sector to the east of the surface cyclone and along/south of the eastward-extending stationary front (or slow-moving warm front). Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing regionally this morning, including semi-extensively over the northeast Gulf. A 30-40 kt southerly low-level jet is expected to sustain adequately enlarged low-level hodographs within this corridor, but especially towards the coast and near the warm front. But convection is expected to be within a messy, outflow-dominated mode at times. Regardless, isolated damaging wind and tornado potential is apparent. While the severe risk does not appear as semi-focused as yesterday, portions of far northern Florida to southern/southeast Georgia in vicinity of the stationary/warm front will be reevaluated for a potential Slight Risk upgrade. Farther west in Alabama and Mississippi, despite somewhat cooler mid-level temperatures closer to the upper cyclone, lapse rates still appear modest. But deep-layer speed shear will be moderately favorable amid a nearly unidirectional southeasterly wind profile. A few cells may briefly produce marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts, and possibly some funnel/brief tornado potential, mainly from late afternoon through early/mid-evening. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/11/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... Latest medium-range output remains generally similar to prior runs concerning the pattern evolution Wednesday into Thursday. A significant short wave trough emerging from the Intermountain West is forecast to support modest cyclogenesis across the central and northern Great Plains through the mid/upper Mississippi Valley vicinity. It appears that this probably will be accompanied by increasing potential for strong to severe thunderstorm development, with severe probabilities maximizing across parts of the Midwest late Thursday into Thursday night, as the stronger large-scale forcing for ascent becomes better coupled with substantive boundary-layer moistening and destabilization. Aided by steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates associated with elevated mixed-layer air, and moderate to strong low-level and deep-layer shear, it appears that the environment will become conducive to the evolution of an upscale growing and organizing convective system. But initial convection may include supercells posing a risk for large hail and a couple of tornadoes, before damaging wind gusts become the predominate severe hazard. Based on the subsequent pattern evolution, it appears that this convection could persist into, or re-intensify, Friday across parts of the mid/upper Ohio Valley, with additional upscale growing convection evolving along a stalling trailing cold front near the southern edge of the stronger westerlies. Into next weekend, renewed cyclogenesis appears possible along the trailing flank of the front across the south central Great Plains, where additional strong to severe thunderstorm development may focus along a developing warm front, and a developing dryline southward through the plains, as the warm sector destabilizes with increasing Gulf moisture return. However, by late Thursday into Friday, and beyond, these developments remain much more unclear, as spread among and within the various medium-range models begins to increase. Substantive differences begin to develop concerning the progressiveness of the lead trough, and a trailing short wave trough emerging from the mid-latitude Pacific. The uncertain impacts of potentially multiple evolving large convective clusters on succeeding days adds to low predictability. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms currently appears negligible across the U.S. Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Discussion... It appears that significant mid/upper-level troughing progressing inland of the U.S. Pacific coast may dig as far south as the lower Colorado Valley, and suppress ridging within a belt of westerlies emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific, across the southwestern international border area. Thereafter, models indicate that the perturbation will turn eastward across the Intermountain West later Tuesday through Tuesday night, with intensifying difluent west-southwesterly mid/upper flow overspreading the southern Rockies by 12Z Wednesday. In lower levels, modestly deep surface troughing to the lee of the Rockies may continue to slowly shift eastward across the Great Plains. However, in the wake of broad, weak negatively tilted mid/upper troughing shifting east of the Mississippi Valley, toward the Atlantic coast at a slower pace than the upstream trough, strengthening low-level flow (up to 30-40 kt around 850 mb) is forecast to maintain a pronounced westerly component across the southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley. This will continue to impede boundary-layer moisture return off the Gulf into the Great Plains, though evapotranspiration may contribute to moistening beneath the leading edge of a plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air advecting eastward across the central and southern Great Plains. Downstream, models indicate that there will be gradual further deepening of broad, weak surface troughing across much of the Southeast. However, the plume of seasonably high moisture content air emanating from the lower latitudes is forecast to generally shift east of the south Atlantic coast during the day Tuesday, though this may be slower to occur across southeast coastal areas of the Florida Peninsula. ...Intermountain West into Great Plains... Models suggest that destabilization beneath an elongated mid-level cold pool, trailing the surface cold front, may contribute to scattered, generally weak/diurnal thunderstorm activity across the northern Rockies and intermountain region, into the vicinity of the northern Sierra Nevada. Near the surface troughing across the Dakotas, it appears that a strongly heated and deeply mixed boundary may become characterized by 40-50 F surface temperature/dew point spreads, but with thermodynamic profiles still supportive of CAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg. High-based thunderstorm development appears possible near/after peak heating, which could pose some risk for locally strong surface gusts. However, the extent of this potential remains unclear, and too uncertain to introduce even low severe probabilities at the present time. ...Ohio Valley/Mid Atlantic/Southeast... Scattered, largely diurnal thunderstorm activity will again be possible beneath the weak/weakening mid-level troughing. Stronger convection may focus along the sea breeze near southeastern Florida coastal areas, and perhaps across parts of the mid and southern Atlantic Piedmont, where at least modest boundary-layer destabilization may occur. However, it is not yet clear that this will be accompanied by an appreciable risk for severe weather. ..Kerr.. 05/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms currently appears negligible across the U.S. Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Discussion... It appears that significant mid/upper-level troughing progressing inland of the U.S. Pacific coast may dig as far south as the lower Colorado Valley, and suppress ridging within a belt of westerlies emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific, across the southwestern international border area. Thereafter, models indicate that the perturbation will turn eastward across the Intermountain West later Tuesday through Tuesday night, with intensifying difluent west-southwesterly mid/upper flow overspreading the southern Rockies by 12Z Wednesday. In lower levels, modestly deep surface troughing to the lee of the Rockies may continue to slowly shift eastward across the Great Plains. However, in the wake of broad, weak negatively tilted mid/upper troughing shifting east of the Mississippi Valley, toward the Atlantic coast at a slower pace than the upstream trough, strengthening low-level flow (up to 30-40 kt around 850 mb) is forecast to maintain a pronounced westerly component across the southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley. This will continue to impede boundary-layer moisture return off the Gulf into the Great Plains, though evapotranspiration may contribute to moistening beneath the leading edge of a plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air advecting eastward across the central and southern Great Plains. Downstream, models indicate that there will be gradual further deepening of broad, weak surface troughing across much of the Southeast. However, the plume of seasonably high moisture content air emanating from the lower latitudes is forecast to generally shift east of the south Atlantic coast during the day Tuesday, though this may be slower to occur across southeast coastal areas of the Florida Peninsula. ...Intermountain West into Great Plains... Models suggest that destabilization beneath an elongated mid-level cold pool, trailing the surface cold front, may contribute to scattered, generally weak/diurnal thunderstorm activity across the northern Rockies and intermountain region, into the vicinity of the northern Sierra Nevada. Near the surface troughing across the Dakotas, it appears that a strongly heated and deeply mixed boundary may become characterized by 40-50 F surface temperature/dew point spreads, but with thermodynamic profiles still supportive of CAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg. High-based thunderstorm development appears possible near/after peak heating, which could pose some risk for locally strong surface gusts. However, the extent of this potential remains unclear, and too uncertain to introduce even low severe probabilities at the present time. ...Ohio Valley/Mid Atlantic/Southeast... Scattered, largely diurnal thunderstorm activity will again be possible beneath the weak/weakening mid-level troughing. Stronger convection may focus along the sea breeze near southeastern Florida coastal areas, and perhaps across parts of the mid and southern Atlantic Piedmont, where at least modest boundary-layer destabilization may occur. However, it is not yet clear that this will be accompanied by an appreciable risk for severe weather. ..Kerr.. 05/11/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... The partially blocked upper-air pattern over the US will begin to breakdown early in the new week as a trough deepens over the western US. Strong mid-level flow will gradually move into the Plains, as upper ridging moves eastward. Strong lee troughing/cyclogensisis will support gusty south/westerly winds over the High Plains. Fire-weather conditions are expected across the Great Plains and Southwest Monday afternoon and evening. ...Northern Plains and Midwest... Strong southerly low-level flow will continue Monday as the upper trough ejects eastward and the surface low deepens over MT and the western Dakotas. Surface winds of 25-30 mph are again expected across much of MT, the Dakotas and into parts of NE/MN/IA. However, RH values should begin to increase as low-level moisture is advected northward and mid-level cloud cover reduces solar heating. While still relatively dry below 30%, RH values do not appear critical. This will favor widespread elevated and pockets of locally critical conditions Monday afternoon. ...Southwest... As the troughing over the west gradually deepens, strong mid-level flow will begin to move eastward over the southern Rockies and Southwest. Westerly downslope flow is likely across parts of eastern AZ and western NM Monday. With gusts of 15-20 mph and RH below 15%, several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are likely within dry fuels that have supported recent fire activity. ..Lyons.. 05/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... The partially blocked upper-air pattern over the US will begin to breakdown early in the new week as a trough deepens over the western US. Strong mid-level flow will gradually move into the Plains, as upper ridging moves eastward. Strong lee troughing/cyclogensisis will support gusty south/westerly winds over the High Plains. Fire-weather conditions are expected across the Great Plains and Southwest Monday afternoon and evening. ...Northern Plains and Midwest... Strong southerly low-level flow will continue Monday as the upper trough ejects eastward and the surface low deepens over MT and the western Dakotas. Surface winds of 25-30 mph are again expected across much of MT, the Dakotas and into parts of NE/MN/IA. However, RH values should begin to increase as low-level moisture is advected northward and mid-level cloud cover reduces solar heating. While still relatively dry below 30%, RH values do not appear critical. This will favor widespread elevated and pockets of locally critical conditions Monday afternoon. ...Southwest... As the troughing over the west gradually deepens, strong mid-level flow will begin to move eastward over the southern Rockies and Southwest. Westerly downslope flow is likely across parts of eastern AZ and western NM Monday. With gusts of 15-20 mph and RH below 15%, several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are likely within dry fuels that have supported recent fire activity. ..Lyons.. 05/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.... ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the Rockies will begin to move eastward as a trough and strong southwesterly flow aloft move over the West. A lee low will aid strong southerly winds over much of the Great Plains and Midwest, while a cutoff low meanders along the Gulf Coast. The dry southerly winds ahead of returning surface moisture will support dry and windy conditions over areas with little recent precipitation. Several hours of critical fire-weather conditions are likely over the Plains today and tonight. ...Plains and Upper Midwest... East of the deepening lee trough/cyclone, strong southerly winds are likely across much of the central/northern Plains and upper Midwest. As flow aloft form the advancing upper trough overspreads the region, diurnal mixing will support widespread winds of 20-30 mph. Afternoon RH values will fall to 20-25%, supporting several hours of dry and windy conditions. As area fuels have continued to dry with little recent rainfall (ERCs in the 80th percentiles), critical fire-weather conditions appear likely today into tonight. ..Lyons.. 05/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.... ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the Rockies will begin to move eastward as a trough and strong southwesterly flow aloft move over the West. A lee low will aid strong southerly winds over much of the Great Plains and Midwest, while a cutoff low meanders along the Gulf Coast. The dry southerly winds ahead of returning surface moisture will support dry and windy conditions over areas with little recent precipitation. Several hours of critical fire-weather conditions are likely over the Plains today and tonight. ...Plains and Upper Midwest... East of the deepening lee trough/cyclone, strong southerly winds are likely across much of the central/northern Plains and upper Midwest. As flow aloft form the advancing upper trough overspreads the region, diurnal mixing will support widespread winds of 20-30 mph. Afternoon RH values will fall to 20-25%, supporting several hours of dry and windy conditions. As area fuels have continued to dry with little recent rainfall (ERCs in the 80th percentiles), critical fire-weather conditions appear likely today into tonight. ..Lyons.. 05/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA THROUGH NORTHEASTERN FL...MUCH OF GA AND SC...ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NC...NRN/ERN AL...ADJACENT SRN TN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the Southeast on Monday, particularly a corridor across the Florida Peninsula into the South Carolina Piedmont, where strongest activity may pose a risk for producing a couple of tornadoes and locally strong surface gusts. ...Discussion... Latest model output remains similar to prior runs concerning the mid/upper flow evolution through this period. Within the amplified, split westerlies, one significant trough is forecast to continue digging inland of the U.S. Pacific coast, downstream of a prominent ridge now building across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific. It still appears that at least one notable smaller-scale perturbation emerging from this trough will accelerate northeast of the northern U.S. Rockies into the Canadian Prairies, around the northwestern periphery of broad downstream ridging encompassing much of the U.S. northern Great Plains through the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence Valley. In lower-levels, models indicate that deeper surface troughing will shift east of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies into Saskatchewan/Manitoba and the Dakotas, while deepening southward through the southern high plains. However, destabilization near this feature is likely to be significantly inhibited by warm air aloft, and the lack of appreciable low-level moisture return due to the continuing presence of a broad mid/upper low initially centered across the lower Mississippi Valley. Cut off from the stronger westerlies, to the south of the broad mid-level ridging, movement of this low is likely to remain slow; however, models indicate that it will probably elongate north-northeastward across the Mid South and lower Ohio Valley, while taking on a negative tilt east of the lower Mississippi Valley into Southeast. In lower levels, this may be accompanied by broad, weak surface troughing developing across much of the Southeast, as surface ridging slowly shifts east of the Atlantic Seaboard. ...Southeast... Differences linger among the various model output, but the gradient between the low-level ridging and troughing may continue to support a belt of modest southerly low-level flow (20-30+ kt around 850 mb) along a corridor roughly from the Florida Peninsula into the South Carolina Piedmont. It appears probable that this will coincide with a deep lower/mid-tropospheric moist plume emanating from the lower latitudes, beneath a belt of moderate to strong, difluent southwesterly high-level flow Much of this corridor may be impacted by considerable remnant convectively generated cloud cover, and perhaps continuing scattered thunderstorm development, at the outset of the period. However, the environment appears at least conditionally supportive of organized convection, including supercells, with potential to produce tornadoes and damaging wind gusts. And breaks in the cloud cover during the day may allow for sufficient insolation and boundary-layer destabilization to allow for some of this potential to be realized. Otherwise, closer to the mid-level cold core, models suggest that forcing for ascent downstream of an embedded cyclonic vorticity center may aid thunderstorm development across the northern/eastern Alabama into western Georgia vicinity. Despite at least some low-level drying in the wake of the aforementioned moist plume, thermodynamic profiles might still become conducive to small to marginally severe hail in widely scattered stronger cells, in the presence of modest deep-layer shear. ..Kerr.. 05/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST ID TO CENTRAL/EASTERN MT... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe gusts are possible across a part of the Northwest from mid-afternoon into the evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible across the Southeast today through tonight. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains and northeast Great Basin... A broad upper trough, consisting of multiple embedded shortwave impulses, will largely remain anchored off the BC and Pacific Northwest Coast. A fast mid-level jet, in excess of 70 kts at 500 mb, will overspread northern CA today and expand towards the northern Rockies through 12Z Monday. Displaced northeast of this strong flow regime, a broad swath of isolated to scattered thunderstorms is expected to peak during the late afternoon and early evening. Similar to Sunday, sporadic severe gusts appear to be the primary hazard owing to deeply mixed boundary layers, especially with eastern extent from southeast ID to central/eastern MT. Pockets of modest buoyancy, coupled with moderate to strong deep-layer southwesterly speed shear, could yield a few high-based supercell structures producing small to marginally severe hail. This should be focused from the OR/WA/ID border area into central MT, and separately over southeast ID into Yellowstone. These structures may further aid in the downstream severe wind threat in MT. ...Southeast... A mid/upper cyclone will drift east across the Sabine to Lower MS Valleys through early Monday. The belt of stronger mid/upper flow will largely remain centered over the northeast Gulf Coast, with weaker branches curling northwest towards the Mid-South and the other continuing across the South Atlantic Coast. Thunderstorm clusters are expected to be ongoing across the northeast Gulf through the FL Panhandle into southeast AL/southwest GA and near coastal SC. The primary concern with the Panhandle to Chattahoochee Valley convection is for potential of a tornado or two and locally damaging winds through late morning. A 30-40 kt low-level jet is expected to sustain adequately enlarged low-level hodographs, especially towards the coast. But convection is expected to be within a messy, outflow-dominated mode by 12Z given near-parallel alignment of the deep-layer shear vector and initial north/south-oriented convective swath. More widespread convection should form along large-scale outflow into the afternoon, which will tend to push east-northeast, and sea breeze boundaries. Downstream wind profiles appear less favorable for organized storms. Weak mid-level lapse rates should further marginalize/maintain an isolated severe threat towards the South Atlantic States. Farther west in AL to MS, despite somewhat cooler mid-level temperatures closer to the upper cyclone, lapse rates still appear modest. But deep-layer speed shear will be moderately favorable amid a nearly unidirectional southeasterly wind profile. A few cells may briefly produce marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts, mainly from late afternoon into mid-evening. ..Grams/Lyons.. 05/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe gusts may persist this evening over parts of the northern Rockies. A brief tornado or two, along with locally damaging winds are possible across parts of the Southeast into Sunday morning. ...Southeast... Primary severe potential early tonight should be confined to near the slow-moving warm front across parts of south GA into far southern SC. Enhanced low-level SRH along the boundary may support a few transient supercell structures persisting this evening. Bulk of this convection should diminish though and/or shift off the Lower Savannah Valley and coastal SC by early morning. A brief tornado and localized damaging winds are the primary hazards. Afternoon guidance continued to signal scattered convection redeveloping later tonight through mid-morning Sunday from portions of the northeast Gulf across the FL Panhandle and southeast AL into far southwest GA along a north-south/oriented confluence band. This will be aided by strengthening upper-level diffluence downstream of a jetlet ejecting into the central Gulf. Given the meridional deep-layer flow regime, largely paralleling the axis of storm development, heavy rain is likely the primary threat (reference WPC ERO). Near-saturated thermodynamic profiles coupled with adequate low-level SRH suggests a brief tornado and locally damaging winds will remain possible through 12Z. ...Northern Rockies... A fairly prolific number of severe gusts have been measured this evening with a swath of high-based convection across southeast ID into central MT. With limited downstream instability, this activity should diminish after sunset. Until that time, sporadic severe gusts will be possible. ..Grams.. 05/11/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat May 10 22:31:01 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat May 10 22:31:01 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z The high-over-low block across the eastern United States should break down early next week as a trough moves through the West and helps open the closed low across the northern Gulf states. Before the Rex block breaks down on Monday, another hot, dry day across the northern Plains will result in elevated to potentially critical fire weather conditions. A corridor of winds greater than 20 mph is possible from north-central Nebraska northward into western Minnesota. However, relative humidity values on Monday (Day-3) should be higher than the previous day, which may temper the overall large-scale fire concerns. That said, fuels should be slightly drier than the day before owing to continued drying. Balancing this, this forecast opts to expand the 40% area and hold off on introducing critical highlights. Across the Southwest, a tightening midlevel height gradient between the approaching/developing trough and the subtropical ridge will result in increasing midlevel flow across the Southwest. As this midlevel flows mixes to the surface, afternoon wind speeds and relative-humidity values will fall to critical levels (greater than 20 mph and less than 15-percent respectively). However, fuels across much of the Southwest have not begun to cure/are still relatively moist. The exception to this is across southeast Arizona and southern New Mexico. A 40% probability of critical fire weather conditions remains across this area for Tuesday and Wednesday (Days 4 and 5). ..Marsh.. 05/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0759 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR INTERIOR FLORIDA PENINSULA
Mesoscale Discussion 0759 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0110 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Areas affected...interior Florida Peninsula Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 101810Z - 102045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Storms will likely spread north from central into northern Florida. Sporadic hail and locally strong downbursts will be possible. DISCUSSION...Heating of a moist air mass has led to moderate instability, with MLCAPE to 2000 J/kg. Storms that initiated close to the sea breeze have rapidly moves northward with primary cluster east of Tampa. Although shear is not very strong, favorable time of day along with moderately steep midlevel lapse rates should continue to support strong updrafts, and localized hail and severe gusts may occur. This activity may reach northern FL later this afternoon, where outflow has temporarily stabilized the air mass. In addition, a large area of storms is currently located about 50 miles west of Tampa, and continues to push east with indications of large-scale outflow, which may affect the west coast with wind later today. ..Jewell.. 05/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX... LAT...LON 27438112 26828164 26768224 27298265 27928287 28568271 28968263 29288252 29528227 29638191 29598153 29408134 29198125 28618116 27728108 27438112 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 0760 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 244... FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA INTO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0760 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Areas affected...southeast Alabama into southwest Georgia Concerning...Tornado Watch 244... Valid 101828Z - 102030Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 244 continues. SUMMARY...At least isolated severe storms remain possible especially near the warm front over southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia. DISCUSSION...A long-tracked supercell that moved out of the FL Panhandle is now situated along the AL/GA border east of the EOX radar, and has morphed into a supercell-MCS hybrid. This system is along the stationary front, with northern sections of the complex indicating broad but substantial rotation. At the very least, damaging wind is likely with this system, but a brief tornado could still materialize. Although areas of heating have occurred along the main boundary, surface observations show little northward movement, and in fact, some observations such as KCSG have cooled with the boundary moving back to the southwest. As such, it is possible additional severe potential will be limited north of the existing watch, except for perhaps a few nearby counties. ..Jewell.. 05/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX... LAT...LON 31398397 31118468 30918522 31008562 31428574 31758570 32188535 32348451 32528364 32578321 32308293 31938296 31668321 31398397 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms including a damaging wind and tornado risk may occur across parts of the Southeast, including northern Florida, southern Alabama and southern Georgia. Other thunderstorms with strong winds will be possible across the northern Rockies this afternoon and evening. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and very minimal changes were made with this update. The greatest tornado risk has generally shifted northward into southeast AL and southwest GA -- where low-level SRH is maximized along the warm front. Reference Tornado Watch #244 and MCD #760 for more details. An additional uptick in tornado potential is possible farther south into the FL Panhandle late in the forecast period, as the low-level jet re-strengthens over the eastern Gulf. The 5-percent tornado probabilities have been maintained here for this scenario. ..Weinman.. 05/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025/ ...Southeast including FL and far southeast AL/southern GA... Recent surface analysis places a low over the MOB vicinity, with a warm front extending eastward along the FL/AL border into far southwest GA and a cold front extending southward into the central Gulf. Thunderstorms have developed along and just ahead of this front, amid modest low-level convergence. A belt of enhanced southerly low-level flow exists across this warm sector, which has contributed to transient low-level mesocyclone intensification. This belt of enhanced low-level flow is expected to persist throughout the afternoon, resulting in a relatively narrow corridor of greater severe storm potential from the central FL Peninsula into far southeast AL and far southwest GA. This area was discussed in recently issued MCD #0758, which mentioned the storms are forecast to gradually increase in coverage and intensity during the day, and that a few of these storms may produce severe weather including brief tornadoes. Tornado Watch #244 was also recently issued to cover this severe-weather potential. Thunderstorm coverage is also expected to increase along and north of the warm front from central AL into central GA during the afternoon and evening. Moderate vertical shear will be in place, but buoyancy will be weak and the general expectation is for storms to remain sub-severe. Increasing thunderstorm coverage is also expected across the FL Peninsula this afternoon amid modest low-level confluence and strong heating. Vertical shear will be weak, limiting storm organization, but a few strong downbursts and isolated instances of hail are still possible. ...Montana/Idaho... Strong heating is anticipated across the northern Rockies/northern High Plains, resulting in a deeply mixed boundary layer by the mid to late afternoon. Persistent southwesterly flow and resulting orographic ascent is expected to result in thunderstorm development across the higher terrain. Very steep low-level lapse rates and relatively dry sub-cloud layers will promote efficient evaporative cooling with the stronger cores as storms mature as they move northeast. A couple of clusters are possible with severe outflow. This activity will likely spread into northern/northeast Montana during the evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms including a damaging wind and tornado risk may occur across parts of the Southeast, including northern Florida, southern Alabama and southern Georgia. Other thunderstorms with strong winds will be possible across the northern Rockies this afternoon and evening. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and very minimal changes were made with this update. The greatest tornado risk has generally shifted northward into southeast AL and southwest GA -- where low-level SRH is maximized along the warm front. Reference Tornado Watch #244 and MCD #760 for more details. An additional uptick in tornado potential is possible farther south into the FL Panhandle late in the forecast period, as the low-level jet re-strengthens over the eastern Gulf. The 5-percent tornado probabilities have been maintained here for this scenario. ..Weinman.. 05/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025/ ...Southeast including FL and far southeast AL/southern GA... Recent surface analysis places a low over the MOB vicinity, with a warm front extending eastward along the FL/AL border into far southwest GA and a cold front extending southward into the central Gulf. Thunderstorms have developed along and just ahead of this front, amid modest low-level convergence. A belt of enhanced southerly low-level flow exists across this warm sector, which has contributed to transient low-level mesocyclone intensification. This belt of enhanced low-level flow is expected to persist throughout the afternoon, resulting in a relatively narrow corridor of greater severe storm potential from the central FL Peninsula into far southeast AL and far southwest GA. This area was discussed in recently issued MCD #0758, which mentioned the storms are forecast to gradually increase in coverage and intensity during the day, and that a few of these storms may produce severe weather including brief tornadoes. Tornado Watch #244 was also recently issued to cover this severe-weather potential. Thunderstorm coverage is also expected to increase along and north of the warm front from central AL into central GA during the afternoon and evening. Moderate vertical shear will be in place, but buoyancy will be weak and the general expectation is for storms to remain sub-severe. Increasing thunderstorm coverage is also expected across the FL Peninsula this afternoon amid modest low-level confluence and strong heating. Vertical shear will be weak, limiting storm organization, but a few strong downbursts and isolated instances of hail are still possible. ...Montana/Idaho... Strong heating is anticipated across the northern Rockies/northern High Plains, resulting in a deeply mixed boundary layer by the mid to late afternoon. Persistent southwesterly flow and resulting orographic ascent is expected to result in thunderstorm development across the higher terrain. Very steep low-level lapse rates and relatively dry sub-cloud layers will promote efficient evaporative cooling with the stronger cores as storms mature as they move northeast. A couple of clusters are possible with severe outflow. This activity will likely spread into northern/northeast Montana during the evening. Read more

WW 0244 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 244 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE TLH TO 20 S CEW. ..JEWELL..05/10/25 ATTN...WFO...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 244 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC031-045-061-067-069-102040- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COFFEE DALE GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON FLC039-059-063-077-131-133-102040- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GADSDEN HOLMES JACKSON LIBERTY WALTON WASHINGTON GAC007-037-061-087-095-099-177-201-205-239-243-253-273-102040- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAKER CALHOUN CLAY DECATUR DOUGHERTY EARLY Read more