Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... An active period of severe weather is anticipated through early next week based on recent trends in long-range guidance. A transition to a progressive upper-level regime is expected over the next seven days as a series of upper waves traverse the CONUS with favorable wavelengths for air mass/moisture recovery into central portions of the CONUS. Although both the GFS and ECMWF (and their respective ensemble families) show similar synoptic evolutions through the extended period, predictability in any severe threat currently appears greatest on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday. ...D4/Thursday... The upper-level trough currently over the Pacific Northwest is forecast to eject into the upper MS River Valley through the day Thursday with an attendant surface low deepening across the upper MS Valley. A Pacific front is forecast to push east into an expanding warm sector that should span from the MS River into the upper Great Lakes and OH River Valley. Strong mid-level flow orthogonal to the front should generally promote discrete/semi-discrete convection by late afternoon on the eastern fringe of a stout EML. The consistent signal for QPF within the warm sector coincident with 50-60 knot mid-level flow and the intensifying nature of the synoptic low suggests that a widespread severe weather event is possible and may expand further east than depicted in previous forecasts. Despite these trends, regional discrepancies among guidance limit confidence in where the more robust severe corridors will become established. Notable factors limiting confidence are the potential for strong capping across much of the OH Valley and a faster progression of the surface low/front in recent GFS/GEFS solutions (which typically exhibit a fast bias at this range). ...D5/Friday... The Pacific front/outflow associated with D4/Thursday's convection is expected to stall across the lower OH Valley/mid-MS Valley before gradually returning north as an effective warm front on Friday. Ensemble guidance shows a reasonably strong signal for dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s (potentially into the low 70s) along and south of this boundary by peak heating. A mid-level impulse propagating over the region should maintain elongated hodographs and provide sufficient lift for thunderstorm development along the boundary. This synoptic regime suggests that one or more organized clusters/linear segments may propagate along the boundary and into parts of the mid-MS Valley, lower OH Valley, and potentially into the TN Valley. Given the thermodynamic and kinematic environment forecast by ensemble guidance, such a cluster/line will likely pose a severe threat. A 15% risk area has been introduced where the QPF signal associated with this regime has been most consistent over recent model runs, but further forecast refinements are expected. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central to northern Plains Wednesday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A progressive upper trough is forecast to pivot from the Intermountain West into the northern Plains through the day Wednesday. Ahead of this wave, an elongated surface trough draped across the Plains will undergo consolidation as a surface cyclone begins to organize over the Dakotas through the forecast period. The arrival of a cold front coincident with the ejection of the upper trough will provide an impetus for thunderstorm development across the central to northern Plains during the afternoon and evening hours. Further east, a weakening upper wave over the Mid-Atlantic will continue to slowly lift to the northeast. A combination of cold temperatures aloft, moist low-level conditions, and modest broad-scale ascent will promote widespread showers and weak thunderstorms across the upper OH River Valley and Mid-Atlantic region. ...Central/Northern Plains... A somewhat expansive warm sector will become established across much of the Plains through the day Wednesday; however, the eastward advection of a strong EML will hinder convective development for much of the southern and central Plains. Although moisture return into the northern Plains will be somewhat modest compared to locations further south (dewpoints only reaching the mid to upper 50s), strong deep-layer ascent ahead of the approaching wave and within the left-exit region of the attendant mid-level jet will sufficiently erode residual capping by late afternoon to promote thunderstorm initiation along the cold front within an unstable air mass. The favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment should promote a few strong/severe storms capable of severe hail/wind, though deep-layer shear vectors and initial storm motions largely parallel to the front will promote quick upscale growth into one or more convective clusters/line segments that may limit the overall duration and coverage of the severe threat. A more prolonged, but isolated, severe threat may materialize late evening into the overnight hours within the MO River Valley as isentropic ascent at the terminus of the nocturnal jet increases and promotes additional thunderstorm development - though model consensus regarding this potential is limited at this range. ..Moore.. 05/12/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.... ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough across the western U.S. will translate eastward across the Rockies with strong mid-level flow overspreading much of the Southwest. Lee troughing will encourage strong westerly winds and dry downslope conditions across the Southwest and High Plains. With little recent rainfall and above normal temperatures overlapping the increased surface winds, elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Southwest... The upper trough and attendant mid-level jet are forecast to intensify and aid in the development of stronger winds within a well-mixed boundary layer across much of the Southwest. Westerly downslope flow of 20-30 mph amid RH values below 15% will support widespread dry and windy conditions across southeastern AZ into southern NM Tuesday. Several days of above-normal temperatures and poor humidity recoveries suggest additional drying of already receptive fuels is likely. Widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely across parts of the Southwest Tuesday afternoon and evening. ...Red River of the North... As the upper trough intensifies to the west, an elongated area of low pressure will deepen near the international border. Strong southerly winds are likely for another day east of the surface trough/low. Persistent above-normal temperatures should maintain low RH below 30% and dry fuels. With southerly gusts to 20 mph, several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely across the eastern Dakotas and western MN. ..Lyons.. 05/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.... ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough across the western U.S. will translate eastward across the Rockies with strong mid-level flow overspreading much of the Southwest. Lee troughing will encourage strong westerly winds and dry downslope conditions across the Southwest and High Plains. With little recent rainfall and above normal temperatures overlapping the increased surface winds, elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Southwest... The upper trough and attendant mid-level jet are forecast to intensify and aid in the development of stronger winds within a well-mixed boundary layer across much of the Southwest. Westerly downslope flow of 20-30 mph amid RH values below 15% will support widespread dry and windy conditions across southeastern AZ into southern NM Tuesday. Several days of above-normal temperatures and poor humidity recoveries suggest additional drying of already receptive fuels is likely. Widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely across parts of the Southwest Tuesday afternoon and evening. ...Red River of the North... As the upper trough intensifies to the west, an elongated area of low pressure will deepen near the international border. Strong southerly winds are likely for another day east of the surface trough/low. Persistent above-normal temperatures should maintain low RH below 30% and dry fuels. With southerly gusts to 20 mph, several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely across the eastern Dakotas and western MN. ..Lyons.. 05/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...Synopsis... As the blocking within the upper-air pattern begins to breakdown a trough will deepens over the western US. Strong mid-level flow will gradually move into the Plains, as upper ridging moves eastward. Strong lee troughing/cyclogenesis will support gusty south/westerly winds over the High Plains. Fire-weather conditions are expected across the Northern Great Plains and Southwest this afternoon and evening. ...Northern Plains and Midwest... Another day of strong southerly winds are likely across the northern Plains and Midwest as ascent from the western US trough overspreads the region. A lee cyclone will support southerly gusts of 20-30 mph over a A broad area amid fuels with ERC values above the 97th percentile. While afternoon RH minimums may not be as low as prior days, record-setting temperatures in the lower to upper 90s are again expected across the region supporting dry surface conditions with RH below 30%. This will support widespread critical fire-weather concerns given the state of drought and recent fire activity. ...Southwest... As the western US trough begins to eject, strong westerly flow aloft will overspread parts of the Southwest from southern AZ into NM. Downslope winds of 15-25 mph along with low RH below 15% will support several hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions within dry fuels, that have supported recent fire activity. ..Lyons.. 05/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...Synopsis... As the blocking within the upper-air pattern begins to breakdown a trough will deepens over the western US. Strong mid-level flow will gradually move into the Plains, as upper ridging moves eastward. Strong lee troughing/cyclogenesis will support gusty south/westerly winds over the High Plains. Fire-weather conditions are expected across the Northern Great Plains and Southwest this afternoon and evening. ...Northern Plains and Midwest... Another day of strong southerly winds are likely across the northern Plains and Midwest as ascent from the western US trough overspreads the region. A lee cyclone will support southerly gusts of 20-30 mph over a A broad area amid fuels with ERC values above the 97th percentile. While afternoon RH minimums may not be as low as prior days, record-setting temperatures in the lower to upper 90s are again expected across the region supporting dry surface conditions with RH below 30%. This will support widespread critical fire-weather concerns given the state of drought and recent fire activity. ...Southwest... As the western US trough begins to eject, strong westerly flow aloft will overspread parts of the Southwest from southern AZ into NM. Downslope winds of 15-25 mph along with low RH below 15% will support several hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions within dry fuels, that have supported recent fire activity. ..Lyons.. 05/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for organized severe thunderstorms remains limited across the U.S. Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Synopsis... A gradual amplification of the upper-level trough currently over the Pacific Northwest is expected over the next 48 hours across the western CONUS. This will maintain a southwesterly flow regime across the central and northern Rockies, which will promote steady lee troughing and modest moisture return across the Plains through Tuesday night. The eastward advection of a stout EML will result in strong capping across the southern Plains where moisture return will be the greatest. A few isolated high-based thunderstorms are possible along the surface trough late afternoon/early evening, and may produce strong downdrafts given deep boundary-layer mixing, but the overall convective signal remains too limited to warrant risk probabilities. Additional elevated convection is possible early Wednesday morning across the Dakotas as a cold front begins to push east across the northern Plains. Across the East, the upper low currently over the lower MS River Valley is expected to gradually de-amplify and lift to the northeast. Rich low-level moisture already in place ahead of this feature, coupled with daytime heating and limited inhibition, will maintain scattered thunderstorm chances for most areas east of the MS River to the central Appalachians. Loosely organized convection is possible across eastern NC Tuesday afternoon in the vicinity of a weak surface low/trough where low-level winds may be sufficiently backed to elongate hodographs. However, disparity in recent guidance regarding the overall convective environment and convective coverage in the wake of widespread early-morning precipitation precludes highlights. Similarly, somewhat organized convection may materialize across parts of MS/western AL Tuesday evening at the eastern periphery of the EML where capping will be weaker. While hodographs will be favorable for organized convection, weak forcing for ascent should limit the probability for sustained, robust storms. ..Moore.. 05/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for organized severe thunderstorms remains limited across the U.S. Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Synopsis... A gradual amplification of the upper-level trough currently over the Pacific Northwest is expected over the next 48 hours across the western CONUS. This will maintain a southwesterly flow regime across the central and northern Rockies, which will promote steady lee troughing and modest moisture return across the Plains through Tuesday night. The eastward advection of a stout EML will result in strong capping across the southern Plains where moisture return will be the greatest. A few isolated high-based thunderstorms are possible along the surface trough late afternoon/early evening, and may produce strong downdrafts given deep boundary-layer mixing, but the overall convective signal remains too limited to warrant risk probabilities. Additional elevated convection is possible early Wednesday morning across the Dakotas as a cold front begins to push east across the northern Plains. Across the East, the upper low currently over the lower MS River Valley is expected to gradually de-amplify and lift to the northeast. Rich low-level moisture already in place ahead of this feature, coupled with daytime heating and limited inhibition, will maintain scattered thunderstorm chances for most areas east of the MS River to the central Appalachians. Loosely organized convection is possible across eastern NC Tuesday afternoon in the vicinity of a weak surface low/trough where low-level winds may be sufficiently backed to elongate hodographs. However, disparity in recent guidance regarding the overall convective environment and convective coverage in the wake of widespread early-morning precipitation precludes highlights. Similarly, somewhat organized convection may materialize across parts of MS/western AL Tuesday evening at the eastern periphery of the EML where capping will be weaker. While hodographs will be favorable for organized convection, weak forcing for ascent should limit the probability for sustained, robust storms. ..Moore.. 05/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHEAST MT/NORTHWEST ND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Southeast today. A tornado or two, localized damaging winds, and hail are possible. Isolated severe gusts are also possible in northeast Montana to northwest North Dakota around early evening. ...Southeast... The vertically stacked mid/upper low that has been nearly stationary over the Sabine Valley will finally pivot northeastward towards western TN through early Tuesday. A jetlet of strong mid-level southerlies over the northeast Gulf and FL Panhandle will dampen somewhat as it becomes centered on north FL to southeast GA vicinity this afternoon. More probable diurnal thunderstorm development is anticipated from the left-exit region of this jetlet westward towards the cold-core of the stacked low. Deep-layer vertical shear will relax with westward extent, yielding more of a pulse strong-storm environment from Middle TN to western AL and MS. Despite the meridional deep-layer wind profile, effective values should be sufficient for multicell clusters and transient updraft rotation centered on eastern AL and GA into north FL. Pockets of modest buoyancy should support a mix of small to marginally severe hail and strong gusts capable of isolated damaging winds. Along the eastern periphery of this activity, a tornado or two is possible where there remains some overlap with the western belt of enhanced low-level flow, shifting east along the South Atlantic Coast. Farther south, a more nebulous convective scenario is anticipated amid extensive ongoing convection across the FL Peninsula and Keys. Guidance differs markedly with the degree of destabilization, as adequate boundary-layer heating will be required amid poor mid-level lapse rates near 5 C/km. Some guidance suggests south FL has the best chance at recovery by afternoon. As such, have opted to maintain the level 1-MRGL risk through the entire region, mainly driven by wind. ...Northeast MT to northwest ND... Another day of rather deeply mixed thermodynamic profiles is expected across this portion of the Upper MO Valley. Convective coverage off the higher terrain of southern MT should be substantially less than in recent days, amid deep-layer southwesterly wind profiles. Some guidance suggests very isolated storms could develop as low-level convergence increases in the early evening. Should this occur, potential will exist for a few dry microbursts producing localized severe gusts. ..Grams/Lyons.. 05/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHEAST MT/NORTHWEST ND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Southeast today. A tornado or two, localized damaging winds, and hail are possible. Isolated severe gusts are also possible in northeast Montana to northwest North Dakota around early evening. ...Southeast... The vertically stacked mid/upper low that has been nearly stationary over the Sabine Valley will finally pivot northeastward towards western TN through early Tuesday. A jetlet of strong mid-level southerlies over the northeast Gulf and FL Panhandle will dampen somewhat as it becomes centered on north FL to southeast GA vicinity this afternoon. More probable diurnal thunderstorm development is anticipated from the left-exit region of this jetlet westward towards the cold-core of the stacked low. Deep-layer vertical shear will relax with westward extent, yielding more of a pulse strong-storm environment from Middle TN to western AL and MS. Despite the meridional deep-layer wind profile, effective values should be sufficient for multicell clusters and transient updraft rotation centered on eastern AL and GA into north FL. Pockets of modest buoyancy should support a mix of small to marginally severe hail and strong gusts capable of isolated damaging winds. Along the eastern periphery of this activity, a tornado or two is possible where there remains some overlap with the western belt of enhanced low-level flow, shifting east along the South Atlantic Coast. Farther south, a more nebulous convective scenario is anticipated amid extensive ongoing convection across the FL Peninsula and Keys. Guidance differs markedly with the degree of destabilization, as adequate boundary-layer heating will be required amid poor mid-level lapse rates near 5 C/km. Some guidance suggests south FL has the best chance at recovery by afternoon. As such, have opted to maintain the level 1-MRGL risk through the entire region, mainly driven by wind. ...Northeast MT to northwest ND... Another day of rather deeply mixed thermodynamic profiles is expected across this portion of the Upper MO Valley. Convective coverage off the higher terrain of southern MT should be substantially less than in recent days, amid deep-layer southwesterly wind profiles. Some guidance suggests very isolated storms could develop as low-level convergence increases in the early evening. Should this occur, potential will exist for a few dry microbursts producing localized severe gusts. ..Grams/Lyons.. 05/12/2025 Read more

WW 0246 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 246 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE GCC TO 10 NE 4BQ TO 20 S MLS TO 30 NNW MLS TO 50 NNW MLS TO 55 S GGW. ..BENTLEY..05/12/25 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 246 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC011-017-021-025-075-079-083-109-120340- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER CUSTER DAWSON FALLON POWDER RIVER PRAIRIE RICHLAND WIBAUX NDC001-007-011-025-033-041-053-087-089-120340- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BILLINGS BOWMAN DUNN GOLDEN VALLEY HETTINGER MCKENZIE SLOPE STARK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 246 SEVERE TSTM MT ND WY 112225Z - 120500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 246 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 425 PM MDT Sun May 11 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Montana Western North Dakota North Central Wyoming * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 425 PM until 1100 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms over southeast Montana will track across the watch area through the evening. Conditions are favorable for organized, high-based convection capable of damaging wind gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles north and south of a line from 120 miles west southwest of Miles City MT to 35 miles east northeast of Dickinson ND. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 245... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...Hart Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN MT AND WESTERN ND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe wind gusts may persist across parts of the northern Great Plains this evening but will subside tonight. A low-probability wind/tornado threat remains apparent across central/south Alabama to the Florida Panhandle into Monday morning. ...Northern Great Plains/Rockies... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are ongoing across parts of the Rockies and northern Great Plains. The most likely corridor for severe gusts appears to be from eastern MT through western ND where surface temperature-dew point spreads of 45-55 F remain common. This activity will diminish after sunset, with the severe wind threat expected to cease towards late evening. Farther west in the ID Panhandle to northwest MT, a supercell or two remains possible the northern Rockies, within the left-exit region of a strengthening mid-level jet. Meager buoyancy will be the primary limiting factor, but small to marginally severe hail is possible within the post-frontal convective regime. ...Southeast... Overall severe potential has been limited today, despite extensive convective activity. Will continue a low-probability severe area ahead of an arc of slow-moving storms over southwest AL. Bulk of guidance suggests slight strengthening of mid-level southerlies will occur across the FL Panhandle and the southeast AL/southwest GA vicinity tonight, downstream of the nearly-stationary low over LA. This may foster maintenance of transient supercell structures atop surface east-southeasterly winds. Weak buoyancy and mid-level lapse rates will limit overall tornado/wind potential. Elsewhere, localized strong gusts may still occur from the FL Peninsula towards the GA/SC coast through the overnight. ..Grams.. 05/12/2025 Read more

WW 0245 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 245 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..05/12/25 ATTN...WFO...PIH...SLC...RIW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 245 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IDC005-007-011-013-019-023-029-031-033-041-043-051-063-065-067- 071-077-081-120140- ID . IDAHO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANNOCK BEAR LAKE BINGHAM BLAINE BONNEVILLE BUTTE CARIBOU CASSIA CLARK FRANKLIN FREMONT JEFFERSON LINCOLN MADISON MINIDOKA ONEIDA POWER TETON UTC003-005-011-029-033-035-043-045-049-051-057-120140- UT . UTAH COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOX ELDER CACHE DAVIS MORGAN RICH SALT LAKE SUMMIT TOOELE UTAH WASATCH WEBER WYC023-029-035-039-041-120140- Read more

WW 0245 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 245 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..05/12/25 ATTN...WFO...PIH...SLC...RIW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 245 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IDC005-007-011-013-019-023-029-031-033-041-043-051-063-065-067- 071-077-081-120140- ID . IDAHO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANNOCK BEAR LAKE BINGHAM BLAINE BONNEVILLE BUTTE CARIBOU CASSIA CLARK FRANKLIN FREMONT JEFFERSON LINCOLN MADISON MINIDOKA ONEIDA POWER TETON UTC003-005-011-029-033-035-043-045-049-051-057-120140- UT . UTAH COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOX ELDER CACHE DAVIS MORGAN RICH SALT LAKE SUMMIT TOOELE UTAH WASATCH WEBER WYC023-029-035-039-041-120140- Read more

WW 245 SEVERE TSTM ID UT WY 111910Z - 120200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 245 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 110 PM MDT Sun May 11 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Idaho Northern Utah Western Wyoming * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 110 PM until 800 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorm intensity and coverage is expected to increase this afternoon across eastern ID, northern UT, and western WY. Environmental conditions support the potential for strong to severe storms capable of strong gusts. Isolated large hail is also possible, particularly in areas of higher terrain. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 65 miles north northeast of Idaho Falls ID to 40 miles southwest of Salt Lake City UT. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23035. ...Mosier Read more

WW 0246 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 246 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BENTLEY..05/12/25 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 246 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC003-011-017-021-025-075-079-083-087-103-109-120140- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BIG HORN CARTER CUSTER DAWSON FALLON POWDER RIVER PRAIRIE RICHLAND ROSEBUD TREASURE WIBAUX NDC001-007-011-025-033-041-053-087-089-120140- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BILLINGS BOWMAN DUNN GOLDEN VALLEY HETTINGER MCKENZIE SLOPE STARK WYC033-120140- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0437 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z A more progressive upper-level pattern is expected for the coming week. The upper-level trough across the western U.S. on Day 3/Tuesday will translate eastward across the CONUS through Day 7/Saturday. Another potential trough enters the western U.S. by early next week (Day 8/Sunday). A residual dry boundary layer along with enhanced southerly winds ahead of a lee trough should allow for the fire weather threat to continue for the far Northern Great Plains/Upper-Midwest. Persistent above normal temperatures should maintain dry fuels through Day 3/Tuesday but extent of moisture return could keep relative humidity from broadly falling to 20 percent in the Upper-Midwest so withheld Critical probabilities out at this time. A surface low and associated cold front moving through Day 4-6/Wednesday-Friday will provide relief in the form of cooler temperatures and widespread precipitation across much of the Upper-Midwest. An incoming upper trough and attendant mid-level jet over a well-mixed boundary layer and dry fuels will support Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions across parts of the Southwest for Day 3/Tuesday - Day 4/Wednesday. Confidence has increased given latest model guidance for overlapping winds of 20-25 mph and localized single digit relative humidity across southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico where a 70 percent Critical probability was introduced. Yet another trough is progged to come into the western U.S. early next week (Day 8/Sunday). With dry conditions continuing through the week, fuelscapes that have received recent rainfall will have undergone several days of drying/curing leading up to the next trough. Long term ensemble cluster analysis does present some uncertainty in timing and strength of trough so Critical probabilities were not included across portions of the Southwest. ..Williams.. 05/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0767 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTHWARD TOWARD SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0767 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Areas affected...central Florida northward toward southeast Georgia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 111921Z - 112145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Storms are forecast to increase in coverage throughout the afternoon from the central Florida Peninsula into northeast Florida and southeast Georgia. DISCUSSION...Storms are currently increasing east of Tampa to west of Okeechobee where strong heating has led to strong instability. The southerly flow regime should support a north/northeast movement to this development, affecting the remainder of central into northeastern Florida. Breaks in the clouds in those downstream areas are developing, and this should further increase instability. Although temperatures aloft are not as cool as previous days, MUCAPE over 2000 J/kg and deep-layer shear of 35-40 kt will support cellular storm mode with sporadic hail > 1.00" expected. Locally strong to damaging gusts cannot be ruled out as well, especially with any merging outflows. ..Jewell/Mosier.. 05/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX... LAT...LON 27158103 27348165 27658206 28098211 30438218 30958218 31328183 31328151 31148134 30518136 29698113 29078080 28408044 27888038 27308059 27158103 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0245 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 245 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..JEWELL..05/11/25 ATTN...WFO...PIH...SLC...RIW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 245 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IDC005-007-011-013-019-023-029-031-033-041-043-051-063-065-067- 071-077-081-112140- ID . IDAHO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANNOCK BEAR LAKE BINGHAM BLAINE BONNEVILLE BUTTE CARIBOU CASSIA CLARK FRANKLIN FREMONT JEFFERSON LINCOLN MADISON MINIDOKA ONEIDA POWER TETON UTC003-005-011-029-033-035-043-045-049-051-057-112140- UT . UTAH COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOX ELDER CACHE DAVIS MORGAN RICH SALT LAKE SUMMIT TOOELE UTAH WASATCH WEBER WYC023-029-035-039-041-112140- Read more