WW 224 SEVERE TSTM FL CW 051815Z - 060100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 224 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 215 PM EDT Mon May 5 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of The Eastern Florida Peninsula Coastal Waters * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 215 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop and strengthen this afternoon along and near the Atlantic Coast sea breeze. This activity should pose a threat for large hail up to 1-2 inches in diameter and isolated damaging winds. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 35 statute miles east and west of a line from 10 miles east northeast of Daytona Beach FL to 40 miles south of Miami FL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 223... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27015. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0223 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 223 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W OAJ TO 5 SW RWI TO 25 SSW RIC TO 35 E CHO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0702 ..THORNTON..05/05/25 ATTN...WFO...MHX...AKQ...RAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 223 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-015-041-049-061-065-073-079-083-091-103-107-117-131-133- 143-147-187-195-052340- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BERTIE CHOWAN CRAVEN DUPLIN EDGECOMBE GATES GREENE HALIFAX HERTFORD JONES LENOIR MARTIN NORTHAMPTON ONSLOW PERQUIMANS PITT WASHINGTON WILSON VAC033-036-041-057-073-081-085-087-093-095-097-101-103-115-119- 127-133-149-159-175-181-183-193-199-570-595-620-650-670-700-730- 735-760-800-830-052340- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAROLINE CHARLES CITY CHESTERFIELD Read more

WW 223 SEVERE TSTM NC VA CW 051725Z - 060100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 223 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 125 PM EDT Mon May 5 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and Eastern North Carolina Southeast and Central Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 125 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to spread north-northeastward this afternoon and evening while posing a threat for large hail generally up to 1-1.5 inches in diameter along with damaging winds. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles north of Richmond VA to 40 miles south of Goldsboro NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 21025. ...Gleason Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A building ridge setting up over the Western U.S. will bring warming temperatures and a lighter wind regime to most of the region from Day 3-5/Wednesday-Friday. A short wave riding along the northern periphery of the ridge and subsequent dry, post-frontal winds could present a fire weather concern across the High Plains of northern Montana on Day 4/Thursday, but recent precipitation and expected state of fuels should reduce wildfire spread potential so critical probabilities were withheld. Model guidance consensus shows an overall eastward accelerating wave pattern by the weekend ushering in the next trough into the Western U.S. for Day 7-8/Sunday-Monday. Supportive upper-level dynamics ahead of the trough interacting with residual mid-level moisture will support faster moving thunderstorms with limited rainfall across the Great Basin and portions of the Intermountain West. However, current green-up phase of fuels should limit ignition efficiency. In addition, increasing southwest flow ahead of the trough supports a broad fire weather concern across the Great Basin/Southwest Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday, but ensemble member spread remains high enough, particularly with timing of trough, to preclude critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A building ridge setting up over the Western U.S. will bring warming temperatures and a lighter wind regime to most of the region from Day 3-5/Wednesday-Friday. A short wave riding along the northern periphery of the ridge and subsequent dry, post-frontal winds could present a fire weather concern across the High Plains of northern Montana on Day 4/Thursday, but recent precipitation and expected state of fuels should reduce wildfire spread potential so critical probabilities were withheld. Model guidance consensus shows an overall eastward accelerating wave pattern by the weekend ushering in the next trough into the Western U.S. for Day 7-8/Sunday-Monday. Supportive upper-level dynamics ahead of the trough interacting with residual mid-level moisture will support faster moving thunderstorms with limited rainfall across the Great Basin and portions of the Intermountain West. However, current green-up phase of fuels should limit ignition efficiency. In addition, increasing southwest flow ahead of the trough supports a broad fire weather concern across the Great Basin/Southwest Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday, but ensemble member spread remains high enough, particularly with timing of trough, to preclude critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0228 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0228 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 228 SEVERE TSTM DC MD PA VA WV CW 052200Z - 060400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 228 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 600 PM EDT Mon May 5 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Maryland Southern Pennsylvania Northern and Eastern Virginia Eastern Panhandle West Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Monday night from 600 PM until Midnight EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered linear clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms will likely develop and move northward into the Watch area this evening. A few of the stronger cellular storms will pose a risk for large hail (1 to 1.5 inches in diameter). A transient supercell or two is possible in addition to a couple of line segments. Strong to severe gusts capable of wind damage will be the primary hazard with these storms, but a brief tornado is possible mainly early this evening with this activity. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles east northeast of Hagerstown MD to 25 miles southwest of Patuxent River MD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 223...WW 224...WW 225...WW 226...WW 227... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector 19030. ...Smith Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EDWARDS PLATEAU TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible from the Edwards Plateau to Southeast Texas. ...Edwards Plateau to Southeast Texas... A stalled front will exist across southern Texas on Wednesday. Strong surface heating will lead to strong instability along this front in an environment featuring long, straight hodographs. Forcing will be somewhat nebulous along the front, but with uncapped forecast soundings and neutral to slightly falling heights along the frontal zone, expect at least isolated supercell development. Any supercells which develop will pose a threat for large to potentially very large hail. Storm coverage precludes higher probabilities at this time. If the front/composite outflow boundary remains onshore across the central Gulf Coast, the Marginal Risk may need to be expanded into this region. However, at this time, there is significant uncertainty how Day 2 convection will evolve which will impact the front/outflow location across Louisiana and southern Mississippi. ...Oklahoma... A weak cold front is forecast to move south through Oklahoma during the day Wednesday. Diurnal destabilization ahead of the front could provide ample instability for a few thunderstorms. Moisture quality along the front is uncertain which precludes a Marginal Risk at this time. However, if low to mid 60s dewpoints appear likely ahead of the front, sufficient instability would exist beneath the cold air aloft to support severe weather probabilities. ..Bentley.. 05/05/2025 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC...AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across southeast New Mexico into Texas this afternoon into tonight. Scattered large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats, though a few tornadoes are also possible. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms should occur across the upper Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic and the eastern Florida Peninsula this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... Minor adjustments were made to the D1 Outlook to extend the Slight Risk further south and east across portions of south-central Texas near the Houston Metro. A persistent supercell has been shifting south and east along a boundary of more favorable CAPE, producing large hail. Additional thunderstorms may traverse this region through the afternoon/evening posing some risk for severe wind and hail. Additional development across portions of western Texas and southeastern New Mexico is expected to intensify late afternoon/evening. The Slight was expanded northwestward to account for latest trends in storm development. See MCD#696 for more information. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 05/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025/ ...Southern Plains... Generally elevated convection is ongoing late this morning from portions of northwest to south-central TX. This activity is largely being driven by low-level warm/moist advection atop a surface front. Given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and strong effective bulk shear, some of these thunderstorms should continue to pose a threat for mainly isolated large hail in the short term. If the convection across south-central TX can persist through the afternoon, it will have some chance to become surface based and pose a greater threat for hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado with eastward extent towards the Gulf Coast, as the surface front attempts to lift slowly northward. Severe probabilities have been expanded eastward some to account for this potential. Farther west, a closed mid/upper-level low will move slowly eastward across the Southwest through the period. Difluent flow aloft will encourage weak lee cyclogenesis across far west TX through this evening, and low-level moisture will continue to stream northwestward along/south of a front across south-central/west TX into southeast NM. Moderate to locally strong instability will likely be in place by late afternoon along/east of a surface dryline across far west TX, and south of the front. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding the timing of robust convective initiation across the southern High Plains, as stronger mid-level height falls/ascent attendant to the upper low begin to overspread the warm sector mainly this evening. Even with this continued uncertainty, it appears likely that several supercells will erupt by no later than this evening across southeast NM into parts of west and south-central TX. Given a rather favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment, along with steep mid-level lapse rates, very large hail will be a concern with these supercells. A strengthening southeasterly low-level jet through the evening will also act to increase low-level shear and provide enhanced boundary-layer hodograph curvature/elongation. The threat for a few tornadoes with any sustained supercell remains apparent. The potential for convection to grow upscale into one or more clusters this evening/overnight remains uncertain. Still, some threat for severe winds will exist with any supercell or clusters. Based on latest guidance trends, the Enhanced Risk has been expanded southeastward towards Del Rio. ...Upper Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic to Eastern North Carolina... A closed upper low will remain centered over the OH Valley today. A mid-level shortwave trough and attendant jet is forecast to move northward from the Carolinas to the southern Mid-Atlantic through the afternoon and evening. Large-scale ascent will likely encourage scattered thunderstorms to form generally along and west of a surface front that arcs from southeast VA to western/central PA. Daytime heating of a modestly moist low-level airmass and cool temperatures aloft associated with the upper low should aid in the development of around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid afternoon across parts of the upper OH Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic and eastern NC. Even though low-level flow will tend to remain fairly muted, southeasterly winds near the surface are forecast to gradually veer to southerly and strengthen with height at mid/upper levels. This should support sufficient deep-layer shear for organized convection. A mix of multicells and supercells are anticipated, with a threat for scattered large hail and damaging winds as they spread northward through the afternoon and evening. Based on latest observational and guidance trends, some westward and southward expansions have been made to the Slight Risk across these regions. ...Florida Peninsula... Much of the FL Peninsula will remain displaced south of the stronger mid/upper-level flow and forcing associated with an upper low over the OH Valley today. Still, seasonably cool temperatures aloft combined with modest enhancement to the mid-level westerlies should foster adequate instability and deep-layer shear to support modest updraft organization. Thunderstorms are expected to preferentially favor the Atlantic Coast sea breeze today, with a stalled front over the central FL Peninsula also serving as a potential low-level forcing mechanism. Any convection which does develop may pose a threat for severe hail and damaging winds before it moves offshore by early evening. Given increased confidence in scattered to numerous thunderstorms, along with long/straight hodographs aloft, a Slight Risk for hail has been added for parts of the eastern FL Peninsula with this update. ...Western Dakotas... Even with low-level moisture remaining limited across the northern Plains today, weak instability should develop by this afternoon in a narrow zone focused along a front extending across the western Dakotas. Widely scattered thunderstorms should initiate along this boundary by this afternoon as glancing large-scale ascent from a shortwave trough over the Canadian Prairie provinces overspreads the region. A well-mixed boundary layer and steep lapse rates should promote efficient momentum transfer with downdrafts, and isolated strong to severe winds and perhaps some hail may occur with pulse-type and loosely organized clusters. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Locally elevated fire weather conditions, particularly along leeward terrain features across far western Texas, are still expected Tuesday afternoon. However, widespread fire weather threat should be limited as surface pressure gradients weaken, flow aloft relaxes, and a mid-level trough translates eastward into the Southern Plains. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Williams.. 05/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears limited for Tuesday across the country. Residual dry/windy conditions are possible across parts of southwest TX and far southern NM as a westerly downslope flow regime becomes established with the eastward departure of a deepening surface low. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible, especially on the leeward side of more prominent terrain features where downslope winds and drying may be enhanced. While most solutions agree on the general flow regime, disparity in the wind speed forecast among deterministic models and ensemble guidance limits confidence in the potential for a sustained fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0694 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC
Mesoscale Discussion 0694 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Areas affected...parts of the Lower Mid-Atlantic Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 051816Z - 052015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe hail and localized damaging winds are possible into late afternoon across northern Virginia into south-central Pennsylvania. This region may remain in a less favorable setup relative to areas south and west, lowering confidence for a severe thunderstorm watch. DISCUSSION...Scattered, low-topped convection has been persistent during early afternoon from northern VA into western PA. Generalized northwestward movement has stymied destabilization deeper into PA, with a gradual uptick in intensity over northern VA to western MD. Deep-layer speed shear will remain favorable (per Sterling VWP data) for further intensification, but this may be confined to the southeast extent of sustained storms and yield predominately marginal severe hail/wind. Meanwhile, more widespread deep convection is occurring across central to eastern NC. Latest trends with this activity suggest it may largely shift across southeast VA into late afternoon. Overall, the potential for a sustained hail/wind threat through peak heating appears nebulous. ..Grams/Gleason.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX... LAT...LON 39747685 38577681 38327750 38267842 38687916 39217967 39627974 40057919 40287847 40167757 39747685 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 0696 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0696 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Areas affected...portions of far southeast New Mexico into far western Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 051858Z - 052030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat is gradually increasing across southeast NM into far western TX. Supercells should organize over the next few hours, accompanied by a severe hail/wind risk. The tornado risk will initially be low, but should increase by evening. A Tornado Watch may be needed in the next few hours to address the impending severe threat. DISCUSSION...Convective initiation has recently occurred over far southeastern NM along a confluence band ahead of a surface trough, with CU gradually becoming more agitated farther south into the Trans-Pecos region of southwestern TX. Ahead of the developing/intensifying storms, continued diurnal heating beneath steepening mid-level lapse rates is supporting 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE. With stronger 500 mb flow rotating around a parent upper low and overspreading the southern High Plains, effective bulk shear continues to increase (currently over 45 kts per 18Z mesoanalysis). As such, storms that mature and become sustained should become supercellular, with an initial severe hail/wind risk. The regional VADs and 18Z mesoanalysis currently depict weak to modest low-level shear, which should temper the tornado threat to a degree. However, a quasi-stationary baroclinic boundary, identified via visible satellite, resides from Chaves County, NM to Howard County, TX. While the tornado threat will increase later this evening with the intensification of the low-level jet, localized earlier tornado potential may exist with a supercell that can anchor to this boundary. Given the increasing severe threat, a Tornado Watch may be needed in the next few hours. ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... LAT...LON 31120309 31830426 32290470 32980517 33680518 33950510 34200489 34280438 33920344 33090228 32400183 31730162 31050197 31120309 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

MD 0697 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 223... FOR EASTERN NC AND SOUTHEAST VA
Mesoscale Discussion 0697 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Areas affected...eastern NC and southeast VA Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 223... Valid 051910Z - 052115Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 223 continues. SUMMARY...A mixed severe hail/damaging wind threat should persist across eastern North Carolina and advance/shift north-northeast across southeast Virginia through early evening. DISCUSSION...Numerous cells have been prevalent, especially across central into eastern NC this afternoon. Here, a south-southwesterly deep-layer wind profile, per area VWPs, along with transient supercell structures has resulted in convection largely progressing northeastward thus far. But activity should pivot to a greater northerly component given the evolution of the upstream vort max/attendant mid-level jetlet. Air mass appears to be modestly unstable downstream across southeast VA with MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg. This should help sustain a severe hail/damaging wind threat through early evening. Despite numerous cells and hail reports, peak severe magnitude has only reached 1 inch thus far. ..Grams.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM... LAT...LON 35777850 36717804 37187784 37797747 37877710 37787662 37427648 36687664 35597701 35077731 34887758 34717781 34747818 35047835 35777850 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 0698 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN WYOMING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 0698 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Areas affected...portions of eastern Wyoming into western South Dakota and far southwestern North Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 051916Z - 052045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A couple of severe gusts and perhaps an instance of hail may occur with the stronger storms this afternoon. The severe threat should be isolated, so a WW issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Multicellular high-based convection has developed along a cold front, atop a mixed boundary layer, characterized by 8-9.5 C/km 0-3 km lapse rates, over the SD/WY border. As the boundary layer further destabilizes, additional pulse-cellular and multicell storms should form along the cold front through the afternoon. Given a dry boundary layer, evaporative cooling via the stronger storm cores will promote some potential for severe gusts. With mid-level lapse rates also approaching 8 C/km amid marginal vertical wind shear, an instance of severe hail also cannot be ruled out. With the severe threat likely remaining isolated, a WW issuance is not anticipated. ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...CYS... LAT...LON 43050607 44340454 45140387 46640203 46930114 46480038 43660143 43610153 43110352 42790535 43050607 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EDWARDS PLATEAU TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible from the Edwards Plateau to Southeast Texas. ...Edwards Plateau to Southeast Texas... A stalled front will exist across southern Texas on Wednesday. Strong surface heating will lead to strong instability along this front in an environment featuring long, straight hodographs. Forcing will be somewhat nebulous along the front, but with uncapped forecast soundings and neutral to slightly falling heights along the frontal zone, expect at least isolated supercell development. Any supercells which develop will pose a threat for large to potentially very large hail. Storm coverage precludes higher probabilities at this time. If the front/composite outflow boundary remains onshore across the central Gulf Coast, the Marginal Risk may need to be expanded into this region. However, at this time, there is significant uncertainty how Day 2 convection will evolve which will impact the front/outflow location across Louisiana and southern Mississippi. ...Oklahoma... A weak cold front is forecast to move south through Oklahoma during the day Wednesday. Diurnal destabilization ahead of the front could provide ample instability for a few thunderstorms. Moisture quality along the front is uncertain which precludes a Marginal Risk at this time. However, if low to mid 60s dewpoints appear likely ahead of the front, sufficient instability would exist beneath the cold air aloft to support severe weather probabilities. ..Bentley.. 05/05/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Locally elevated fire weather conditions, particularly along leeward terrain features across far western Texas, are still expected Tuesday afternoon. However, widespread fire weather threat should be limited as surface pressure gradients weaken, flow aloft relaxes, and a mid-level trough translates eastward into the Southern Plains. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Williams.. 05/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears limited for Tuesday across the country. Residual dry/windy conditions are possible across parts of southwest TX and far southern NM as a westerly downslope flow regime becomes established with the eastward departure of a deepening surface low. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible, especially on the leeward side of more prominent terrain features where downslope winds and drying may be enhanced. While most solutions agree on the general flow regime, disparity in the wind speed forecast among deterministic models and ensemble guidance limits confidence in the potential for a sustained fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0223 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 223 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E FAY TO 25 NE RDU TO 20 NNE AVC TO 40 NW AVC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0697. ..GRAMS..05/05/25 ATTN...WFO...MHX...AKQ...RAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 223 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-015-041-049-061-065-069-073-079-083-091-101-103-107-117- 127-131-133-143-147-163-181-185-187-191-195-052040- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BERTIE CHOWAN CRAVEN DUPLIN EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN GATES GREENE HALIFAX HERTFORD JOHNSTON JONES LENOIR MARTIN NASH NORTHAMPTON ONSLOW PERQUIMANS PITT SAMPSON VANCE WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE WILSON VAC007-025-033-036-041-049-053-057-065-073-075-081-085-087-093- 095-097-101-103-109-115-119-127-133-135-145-147-149-159-175-181- 183-193-199-570-595-620-650-670-700-730-735-760-800-830- 052040- VA Read more

WW 0224 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 224 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GRAMS..05/05/25 ATTN...WFO...MLB...MFL... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 224 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC009-011-061-085-086-093-095-097-099-111-117-127-052040- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BREVARD BROWARD INDIAN RIVER MARTIN MIAMI-DADE OKEECHOBEE ORANGE OSCEOLA PALM BEACH ST. LUCIE SEMINOLE VOLUSIA AMZ550-552-555-610-630-650-651-052040- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM LAKE OKEECHOBEE BISCAYNE BAY Read more

MD 0693 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO
Mesoscale Discussion 0693 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Areas affected...portions of northwestern New Mexico Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 051747Z - 052015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A couple instances of severe hail may occur with the stronger storm cores through mid afternoon. A WW issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Multiple transient supercells have intensified over the past couple of hours immediately ahead of a closed upper low over the Desert Southwest. Both MRMS and KABX MESH data suggests that hail may be exceeding 1 inch in diameter with some of these storms. With a 500 mb speed max pivoting around the upper low and overspreading NM, effective bulk shear should exceed 40 kts (per latest mesoanalysis). ABX VAD shows an elongated straight hodograph, with unidirectional speed shear supporting continued supercells structures with a large hail threat this afternoon. However, moisture and overall buoyancy is scant, which should limit the overall severe threat. As such, a WW issuance is not anticipated. ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ... LAT...LON 34590726 35060772 35940812 36600797 36850775 36980747 36870682 36700665 36270642 35570597 35020613 34650640 34510688 34590726 MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0225 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0225 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more