Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... From Thursday into the weekend, the upper-level pattern will be characterized by an elongated trough in the East and a building ridge in the West. With this weakly blocking pattern, slow progression of these features can be expected. With the trough in the East, moisture will be present south of a surface boundary across parts of the Southeast and eventually into the Florida Peninsula. Though organized severe potential appears low with this activity, enough remnant mid-level flow could promote localized strong storms. By next week, models currently suggest some troughing is possible in the West. With preceding days of offshore winds across the western Gulf, moisture quality ahead of any potential trough is likely to be low. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for organized severe weather is expected to be low on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An elongated upper low within the Southwest into the southern Plains will weaken as it slowly moves eastward on Wednesday. The strongest, but decreasing with time, mid-level winds will reside along the Gulf Coast. At the surface, weak boundaries are expected to extend from the lower Mississippi Valley into South Texas. At the start of the period, convection is expected to be in portions of the lower Mississippi Valley. This activity should be moving into a stable airmass and does not currently appear that it will pose an organized severe threat. Models differ in the expansiveness of this convective activity. The NAM in particular shows outflow stalling in southern Louisiana into the Upper Texas Coast. If this were to occur, a very moist airmass and lingering moderate mid-level flow could allow for a zone of strong to severe storms near the outflow boundary. The ECMWF/GFS push outflow offshore. There is additional potential for strong to severe storms in South Texas. However, some capping will be in place and mid-level heights will be neutral. Confidence in organized severe weather remains too low for probabilities at this time. ..Wendt.. 05/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for organized severe weather is expected to be low on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An elongated upper low within the Southwest into the southern Plains will weaken as it slowly moves eastward on Wednesday. The strongest, but decreasing with time, mid-level winds will reside along the Gulf Coast. At the surface, weak boundaries are expected to extend from the lower Mississippi Valley into South Texas. At the start of the period, convection is expected to be in portions of the lower Mississippi Valley. This activity should be moving into a stable airmass and does not currently appear that it will pose an organized severe threat. Models differ in the expansiveness of this convective activity. The NAM in particular shows outflow stalling in southern Louisiana into the Upper Texas Coast. If this were to occur, a very moist airmass and lingering moderate mid-level flow could allow for a zone of strong to severe storms near the outflow boundary. The ECMWF/GFS push outflow offshore. There is additional potential for strong to severe storms in South Texas. However, some capping will be in place and mid-level heights will be neutral. Confidence in organized severe weather remains too low for probabilities at this time. ..Wendt.. 05/05/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears limited for Tuesday across the country. Residual dry/windy conditions are possible across parts of southwest TX and far southern NM as a westerly downslope flow regime becomes established with the eastward departure of a deepening surface low. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible, especially on the leeward side of more prominent terrain features where downslope winds and drying may be enhanced. While most solutions agree on the general flow regime, disparity in the wind speed forecast among deterministic models and ensemble guidance limits confidence in the potential for a sustained fire weather threat. ..Moore.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears limited for Tuesday across the country. Residual dry/windy conditions are possible across parts of southwest TX and far southern NM as a westerly downslope flow regime becomes established with the eastward departure of a deepening surface low. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible, especially on the leeward side of more prominent terrain features where downslope winds and drying may be enhanced. While most solutions agree on the general flow regime, disparity in the wind speed forecast among deterministic models and ensemble guidance limits confidence in the potential for a sustained fire weather threat. ..Moore.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will persist across parts of the northern Plains with more localized fire weather potential expected across parts of southwest TX this afternoon. ...Red River Valley of the North... Southerly winds will continue across the northern Plains ahead of a southward advancing cold front for much of the day. Diurnal heating and mixing will promote a slight uptick in wind speeds across eastern ND and northwest MN by late afternoon. Most guidance suggests winds near 15 mph are likely, which should be sufficient to promote fire spread given afternoon RH minimums near 20% and receptive fine fuels already in place (as evidenced by fire activity over the past two days). ...Southwest Texas... 06 UTC surface observations and RTMA analyses show a developing dryline extending from south-central NM southeastward along the Rio Grande. This boundary is expected to mix northeast through late afternoon as southwesterly winds increase to 15-20 mph. The 00 UTC EPZ sounding sampled this dry air mass with near-surface RH values in the low teens. Similar RH minimums are expected this afternoon across southwest TX behind the dryline, which when combined with breezy winds, should promote elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. ERC values between the 80th to 90th percentile along the Rio Grande should support the fire threat. Although thunderstorm development is possible across the region, recent CAM guidance suggests convection will most likely remain east of the Elevated risk area. ..Moore.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will persist across parts of the northern Plains with more localized fire weather potential expected across parts of southwest TX this afternoon. ...Red River Valley of the North... Southerly winds will continue across the northern Plains ahead of a southward advancing cold front for much of the day. Diurnal heating and mixing will promote a slight uptick in wind speeds across eastern ND and northwest MN by late afternoon. Most guidance suggests winds near 15 mph are likely, which should be sufficient to promote fire spread given afternoon RH minimums near 20% and receptive fine fuels already in place (as evidenced by fire activity over the past two days). ...Southwest Texas... 06 UTC surface observations and RTMA analyses show a developing dryline extending from south-central NM southeastward along the Rio Grande. This boundary is expected to mix northeast through late afternoon as southwesterly winds increase to 15-20 mph. The 00 UTC EPZ sounding sampled this dry air mass with near-surface RH values in the low teens. Similar RH minimums are expected this afternoon across southwest TX behind the dryline, which when combined with breezy winds, should promote elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. ERC values between the 80th to 90th percentile along the Rio Grande should support the fire threat. Although thunderstorm development is possible across the region, recent CAM guidance suggests convection will most likely remain east of the Elevated risk area. ..Moore.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE SABINE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Severe winds, large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes are possible. Additional isolated strong to severe storms capable of large hail and isolated wind damage are possible within parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic states. ...Synopsis... With the blocking pattern still in place, the upper lows in the Ohio Valley and Southwest will continue to make slow progress on Tuesday. A shortwave trough on the base of the upper low is expected to eject into the southern Plains. This will promote severe potential across much of the region into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Rich moisture will continue to push into much of Texas and a warm front will lift to near the Red River. ...Central/East Texas into Western Louisiana... A complicated forecast exists across these regions. Convection is anticipated to develop in West Texas along a retreating dryline late on Day 1/Monday. Models are in general agreement that some of this activity will persist into Tuesday morning in central Texas. A very moist airmass (mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints) will be advecting northward/westward ahead of this activity. There is some potential for this activity to remain slightly elevated given the early morning timing and some overnight boundary layer cooling. However, high theta-e advection will also mitigate inhibition. Though this uncertainty remains, the Slight risk has been moved farther westward in central Texas to account for potential near-surface/surface based storms early on Tuesday. Additional early morning activity is expected along the northward lifting warm front as the shortwave trough ejects into the southern Plains and the low-level jet impinges on the boundary. How this morning activity evolves will greatly impact the potential for higher-end severe storms in the afternoon and what the greatest severe hazard will be. The very moist airmass and steep mid-level lapse rates will promote a zone of 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE in parts of Central/East Texas south of the warm front. With greater than 50 kts of effective shear, all severe hazards would be possible regardless of the ultimate evolution of the convection. That being said, there appears to be a corridor of conditionally higher severe potential near and just south of the warm front in Northeast Texas into northwest Louisiana. Should a more organized cluster/MCS persist through Monday night into Tuesday morning, there is greater potential for a swath of severe wind gusts as the airmass destabilizes ahead of it. Without the MCS, there is greater potential for storms developing along the warm front to produce tornadoes (perhaps strong) as the strong low-level jet and fringe of the steeper lapse rates will overlap. Given the weakly capped boundary layer even early in the day, there is reasonable confidence in numerous storms, particularly along the warm front. With large amounts of storm interference possible, on top of potential MCS, confidence is not high enough to increase tornado probabilities. Concerning the MCS and greater severe wind potential, models vary greatly on the placement of this feature. Similarly, confidence is too low for higher wind probabilities as well. Overall, scattered to numerous storms along the warm front and dryline in central Texas will be capable of all severe hazards. Very large hail is most likely along the dryline or with storms that develop along the southern edge of any MCS. ...Red River Vicinity... Storms near the Red River and northward are more likely to be elevated. Large hail and perhaps isolated damaging gusts could occur. There is some tornado potential south of the Red River into North Texas where storms will be at least near-surface based. ...Texas Panhandle... With the upper-level low moving into parts of the Panhandle and weak surface low in the South Plains, there is potential for moisture to remain along a surface boundary. Several models show low 50s F dewpoints in the region. The question will be how much surface heating occurs. Should sufficient buoyancy develop, cold temperatures aloft will promote potential for marginally severe hail and isolated severe gusts in the strongest storms. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic... With the Upper Ohio Valley cyclone moving slowly northeast, there will be potential for another round of convection to develop near the core of the upper low where greater surface heating occurs. Marginally severe hail and isolated wind damage will be possible with storms during the afternoon. ...South Texas... Forcing for ascent will be somewhat weak during the afternoon and storm development is not certain. Some model guidance suggests that storms could form during the overnight near the Rio Grande Valley as a shortwave impulse moves over South Texas and adjacent Mexico. Large hail and severe winds would be possible with any supercells that can develop. ..Wendt.. 05/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE SABINE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Severe winds, large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes are possible. Additional isolated strong to severe storms capable of large hail and isolated wind damage are possible within parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic states. ...Synopsis... With the blocking pattern still in place, the upper lows in the Ohio Valley and Southwest will continue to make slow progress on Tuesday. A shortwave trough on the base of the upper low is expected to eject into the southern Plains. This will promote severe potential across much of the region into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Rich moisture will continue to push into much of Texas and a warm front will lift to near the Red River. ...Central/East Texas into Western Louisiana... A complicated forecast exists across these regions. Convection is anticipated to develop in West Texas along a retreating dryline late on Day 1/Monday. Models are in general agreement that some of this activity will persist into Tuesday morning in central Texas. A very moist airmass (mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints) will be advecting northward/westward ahead of this activity. There is some potential for this activity to remain slightly elevated given the early morning timing and some overnight boundary layer cooling. However, high theta-e advection will also mitigate inhibition. Though this uncertainty remains, the Slight risk has been moved farther westward in central Texas to account for potential near-surface/surface based storms early on Tuesday. Additional early morning activity is expected along the northward lifting warm front as the shortwave trough ejects into the southern Plains and the low-level jet impinges on the boundary. How this morning activity evolves will greatly impact the potential for higher-end severe storms in the afternoon and what the greatest severe hazard will be. The very moist airmass and steep mid-level lapse rates will promote a zone of 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE in parts of Central/East Texas south of the warm front. With greater than 50 kts of effective shear, all severe hazards would be possible regardless of the ultimate evolution of the convection. That being said, there appears to be a corridor of conditionally higher severe potential near and just south of the warm front in Northeast Texas into northwest Louisiana. Should a more organized cluster/MCS persist through Monday night into Tuesday morning, there is greater potential for a swath of severe wind gusts as the airmass destabilizes ahead of it. Without the MCS, there is greater potential for storms developing along the warm front to produce tornadoes (perhaps strong) as the strong low-level jet and fringe of the steeper lapse rates will overlap. Given the weakly capped boundary layer even early in the day, there is reasonable confidence in numerous storms, particularly along the warm front. With large amounts of storm interference possible, on top of potential MCS, confidence is not high enough to increase tornado probabilities. Concerning the MCS and greater severe wind potential, models vary greatly on the placement of this feature. Similarly, confidence is too low for higher wind probabilities as well. Overall, scattered to numerous storms along the warm front and dryline in central Texas will be capable of all severe hazards. Very large hail is most likely along the dryline or with storms that develop along the southern edge of any MCS. ...Red River Vicinity... Storms near the Red River and northward are more likely to be elevated. Large hail and perhaps isolated damaging gusts could occur. There is some tornado potential south of the Red River into North Texas where storms will be at least near-surface based. ...Texas Panhandle... With the upper-level low moving into parts of the Panhandle and weak surface low in the South Plains, there is potential for moisture to remain along a surface boundary. Several models show low 50s F dewpoints in the region. The question will be how much surface heating occurs. Should sufficient buoyancy develop, cold temperatures aloft will promote potential for marginally severe hail and isolated severe gusts in the strongest storms. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic... With the Upper Ohio Valley cyclone moving slowly northeast, there will be potential for another round of convection to develop near the core of the upper low where greater surface heating occurs. Marginally severe hail and isolated wind damage will be possible with storms during the afternoon. ...South Texas... Forcing for ascent will be somewhat weak during the afternoon and storm development is not certain. Some model guidance suggests that storms could form during the overnight near the Rio Grande Valley as a shortwave impulse moves over South Texas and adjacent Mexico. Large hail and severe winds would be possible with any supercells that can develop. ..Wendt.. 05/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from the southern High Plains into parts of central Texas this afternoon and evening. Scattered large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats, though a couple of tornadoes also are possible. Additional strong to severe storms are possible along the eastern Florida coast and from eastern North Carolina into the central Appalachians and upper Ohio River Valley. ...Synopsis... An omega blocking pattern continues to develop over the CONUS per recent water-vapor imagery and 00 UTC upper-air analysis, with two meandering upper lows over the Ohio River Valley and Southwest respectively. Northward moisture advection and ascent on the eastern periphery of both upper lows will promote another day of scattered thunderstorms (including strong to severe storms) across the central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic and southern High Plains into the Intermountain West. ...Southern High Plains... Upper-level diffluence over the southern High Plains will continue to promote gradual surface pressure falls and a southeasterly return flow regime across far eastern NM and western TX through much of the day. Although moisture return will initially be somewhat modest, persistent broad-scale ascent over the region will result in cooling temperatures aloft/steepening mid-level lapse rates that should compensate for the poor moisture quality. Thunderstorm development is expected initially within a warm advection regime across south-central TX by early afternoon with additional storm development by late afternoon across the Permian basin in closer proximity to a deepening lee trough/sharpening dryline. Across both regions, deep-layer wind shear on the order of 50 knots should promote supercells with an attendant threat for large hail. Across south-central TX, higher-quality moisture and stronger veering in the lowest 1-2 km AGL may support a tornado threat. By early evening, a shortwave trough embedded within the mean flow (observable in water-vapor imagery off the southern CA coast as of 06 UTC) is forecast to overspread southwest TX. Stronger surface pressure falls associated with this shortwave will induce strengthening low-level winds, which will not only enlarge low-level hodographs, but will augment moisture return into the region. Ascent within the strengthening warm advection regime should result in scattered supercell development between 00-06 UTC across the southern Permian Basin and adjacent areas of southeast NM. Given the increasingly favorable convective environment, a few long-lived supercells appear possible and will be capable of producing large to very large (2+ inch) hail and perhaps a couple of tornadoes. Upscale growth into one or more clusters appears likely heading into the overnight hours as lift spreads northeast into northwest and central TX. There remains some uncertainty among guidance regarding the development of a more organized MCS into TX through early Tuesday morning, but cells developing within the warm advection regime ahead of the upper wave may be capable of severe hail/wind. ...Central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic... Recent surface observations reveal a residual front/marine boundary draped from eastern VA into the eastern Carolinas. East of this boundary, richer low-level moisture in the form of low to mid-60s dewpoints is noted extending northward into southeast PA. Aloft, an embedded shortwave orbiting around the primary upper low is noted over the mid-MS River Valley in recent water-vapor imagery. This feature is expected to pivot into the Mid-Atlantic and central Appalachians through the afternoon/evening and will be favorably timed with the diurnal heating cycle. The combination of cold temperatures aloft in proximity to the upper low and rich low-level moisture will limit capping and promote thunderstorm initiation along the boundary by early afternoon from the DelMarVa region into NC. Further to the northwest, lift ahead of the embedded shortwave combined with cold mid-level temperatures should promote thunderstorm development across WV and OH by late afternoon. Across both regions, 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and elongated, nearly straight hodographs should promote organized cells capable of large hail and damaging winds. Similar thermodynamic and kinematic environments were observed yesterday across the region, and yielded isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms, including a couple of supercells. ...Eastern Florida Coast... Regional 00 UTC soundings sampled somewhat steep mid-level lapse rates atop a seasonally moist boundary layer (characterized by upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints) with limited inhibition. Heating of this air mass should eliminate any residual capping by late morning and early afternoon as temperatures climb into the 80s. Convective initiation will become more probable by mid/late afternoon as confluence along sea-breeze boundaries increases. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected, and 30-40 knot mid-level flow should promote a few organized cells capable of producing large hail and damaging gusts. ..Moore.. 05/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from the southern High Plains into parts of central Texas this afternoon and evening. Scattered large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats, though a couple of tornadoes also are possible. Additional strong to severe storms are possible along the eastern Florida coast and from eastern North Carolina into the central Appalachians and upper Ohio River Valley. ...Synopsis... An omega blocking pattern continues to develop over the CONUS per recent water-vapor imagery and 00 UTC upper-air analysis, with two meandering upper lows over the Ohio River Valley and Southwest respectively. Northward moisture advection and ascent on the eastern periphery of both upper lows will promote another day of scattered thunderstorms (including strong to severe storms) across the central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic and southern High Plains into the Intermountain West. ...Southern High Plains... Upper-level diffluence over the southern High Plains will continue to promote gradual surface pressure falls and a southeasterly return flow regime across far eastern NM and western TX through much of the day. Although moisture return will initially be somewhat modest, persistent broad-scale ascent over the region will result in cooling temperatures aloft/steepening mid-level lapse rates that should compensate for the poor moisture quality. Thunderstorm development is expected initially within a warm advection regime across south-central TX by early afternoon with additional storm development by late afternoon across the Permian basin in closer proximity to a deepening lee trough/sharpening dryline. Across both regions, deep-layer wind shear on the order of 50 knots should promote supercells with an attendant threat for large hail. Across south-central TX, higher-quality moisture and stronger veering in the lowest 1-2 km AGL may support a tornado threat. By early evening, a shortwave trough embedded within the mean flow (observable in water-vapor imagery off the southern CA coast as of 06 UTC) is forecast to overspread southwest TX. Stronger surface pressure falls associated with this shortwave will induce strengthening low-level winds, which will not only enlarge low-level hodographs, but will augment moisture return into the region. Ascent within the strengthening warm advection regime should result in scattered supercell development between 00-06 UTC across the southern Permian Basin and adjacent areas of southeast NM. Given the increasingly favorable convective environment, a few long-lived supercells appear possible and will be capable of producing large to very large (2+ inch) hail and perhaps a couple of tornadoes. Upscale growth into one or more clusters appears likely heading into the overnight hours as lift spreads northeast into northwest and central TX. There remains some uncertainty among guidance regarding the development of a more organized MCS into TX through early Tuesday morning, but cells developing within the warm advection regime ahead of the upper wave may be capable of severe hail/wind. ...Central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic... Recent surface observations reveal a residual front/marine boundary draped from eastern VA into the eastern Carolinas. East of this boundary, richer low-level moisture in the form of low to mid-60s dewpoints is noted extending northward into southeast PA. Aloft, an embedded shortwave orbiting around the primary upper low is noted over the mid-MS River Valley in recent water-vapor imagery. This feature is expected to pivot into the Mid-Atlantic and central Appalachians through the afternoon/evening and will be favorably timed with the diurnal heating cycle. The combination of cold temperatures aloft in proximity to the upper low and rich low-level moisture will limit capping and promote thunderstorm initiation along the boundary by early afternoon from the DelMarVa region into NC. Further to the northwest, lift ahead of the embedded shortwave combined with cold mid-level temperatures should promote thunderstorm development across WV and OH by late afternoon. Across both regions, 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and elongated, nearly straight hodographs should promote organized cells capable of large hail and damaging winds. Similar thermodynamic and kinematic environments were observed yesterday across the region, and yielded isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms, including a couple of supercells. ...Eastern Florida Coast... Regional 00 UTC soundings sampled somewhat steep mid-level lapse rates atop a seasonally moist boundary layer (characterized by upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints) with limited inhibition. Heating of this air mass should eliminate any residual capping by late morning and early afternoon as temperatures climb into the 80s. Convective initiation will become more probable by mid/late afternoon as confluence along sea-breeze boundaries increases. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected, and 30-40 knot mid-level flow should promote a few organized cells capable of producing large hail and damaging gusts. ..Moore.. 05/05/2025 Read more

MD 0688 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF WRN TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0688 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1040 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Areas affected...parts of wrn TX Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 050340Z - 050545Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...An isolated intense cell may persist south/southeast of Midland perhaps another hour or so, before dissipating. DISCUSSION...One isolated intense cell, which impacted the Wink TX vicinity a couple of hours ago with severe hail and a localized gusts in excess of 65 kt, has been maintained. It appears that this has been supported by lift associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, as it propagates along a thermal gradient around the 700 mb level. Based on a NAM-based objective analysis, there may be a narrow corridor of (relatively) better instability along this track, but strong shear may be the more prominent factor (aided by low-level easterlies veering to 40-50 kt west-southwesterly flow around 500) in maintaining this cell. Even so, the stronger convection has shown some recent contraction in size and decrease in intensity. Based on the objective instability analysis, and latest surface observations, there appears increasing potential for it to begin a more rapid dissipation by the time it reaches the Glasscock/Reagan counties vicinity around 05Z, if not earlier. ..Kerr/Smith.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MAF... LAT...LON 31750196 31720164 31580150 31480167 31590208 31750196 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 0687 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST SC...EASTERN NC
Mesoscale Discussion 0687 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0716 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Areas affected...Northeast SC...eastern NC Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 050016Z - 050145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms may continue through the evening. DISCUSSION...Isolated strong storms have developed near a weakly confluent surface front across parts of the eastern Carolinas this evening. Earlier modest heating of a moist environment has resulted in MLCAPE of near/above 1000 J/kg, while moderate southwesterly flow along the periphery of the OH/TN Valley midlevel cyclone is providing sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization. With rather prominent midlevel dryness noted in WV imagery and generally limited large-scale ascent, coverage and intensity of storms this evening may generally be relatively limited. However, a couple of left-moving cells have been able to move northward and remain within the confluence zone, resulting in locally greater storm intensity and longevity. Hail and locally gusty winds could accompany the strongest storms through the evening, before cooling and stabilization becomes more prominent later tonight. ..Dean/Smith.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS... LAT...LON 35167892 36277864 36327781 36207730 35387752 34627800 33947837 33107947 33357994 34167936 35167892 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY...PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND FAR WESTERN TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will remain possible through the late evening hours across parts of southeast New Mexico and western Texas as well as across parts of the central Appalachians and parts of the Carolinas and southeast Virginia. ...Synopsis... An omega blocking pattern will continue to become established aloft across the country as a pair of upper lows linger over the OH River Valley and Southwest. Broad scale ascent ahead of both of these low will continue to promote thunderstorm chances across the eastern U.S. and the Intermountain West through early Monday morning. ...Upper Ohio River Valley... As of 00 UTC, a lobe of mid-level vorticity pivoting into the upper OH River Valley, coupled with weak mid-level warm advection, continues to promote widely scattered strong/severe thunderstorms. A recent 00 UTC sounding from Pittsburg, PA sampled limited mixed-layer buoyancy, but recent high-res guidance and mesoanalysis estimates suggests a corridor of somewhat higher buoyancy (500-750 J/kg MLCAPE) resides from northern WV into western PA. Additionally, 30-40 knot mid-level flow sampled by the recent RAOB is adequate to support supercells. The thermodynamic environment should continue to wane heading into the overnight hours, and stronger forcing for ascent will increasingly overspread a less buoyant air mass to the north, though a severe hail threat may persist for the next couple of hours. ...Coastal Carolinas into southeast Virginia... Thunderstorms continue to develop and propagate along a weakly confluent marine boundary draped from south-central VA into the eastern Carolinas. Dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s continue to contribute to around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE (perhaps best sampled by the 00 UTC CHS sounding). A localized hail/wind threat should persist with ongoing convection given adequate buoyancy and deep-layer shear, but nocturnal cooling should increase low-level stability and limit thunderstorm coverage and intensity through the overnight hours. Latest guidance hints that an early-morning (10-12 UTC) round of thunderstorms is possible across north-central NC into southeast VA. Strong mid-level flow should remain over the region and may support organized cells with an attendant hail/wind threat. ...New Mexico into western Texas... Long-lived supercells continue to migrate across far southeast NM into western TX as of 00 UTC. A strengthening low-level jet will help elongate low to mid-level hodographs as well as maintain moisture advection from the southeast. As a result, supercell maintenance is likely for the next few hours before cells drift further east into TX and out of the primary low-level jet/moist advection axis. Persistent lift across the region in the vicinity of the terminus of the low-level jet and within the left-exit region of an approaching upper jet may support additional strong/severe storms later tonight. However, more limited buoyancy/increased inhibition should limit storm coverage. Therefore, opted to remove Slight-risk caliber risk probabilities, but maintain low-end probabilities to address the severe potential for additional overnight storms. ..Moore.. 05/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY...PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND FAR WESTERN TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will remain possible through the late evening hours across parts of southeast New Mexico and western Texas as well as across parts of the central Appalachians and parts of the Carolinas and southeast Virginia. ...Synopsis... An omega blocking pattern will continue to become established aloft across the country as a pair of upper lows linger over the OH River Valley and Southwest. Broad scale ascent ahead of both of these low will continue to promote thunderstorm chances across the eastern U.S. and the Intermountain West through early Monday morning. ...Upper Ohio River Valley... As of 00 UTC, a lobe of mid-level vorticity pivoting into the upper OH River Valley, coupled with weak mid-level warm advection, continues to promote widely scattered strong/severe thunderstorms. A recent 00 UTC sounding from Pittsburg, PA sampled limited mixed-layer buoyancy, but recent high-res guidance and mesoanalysis estimates suggests a corridor of somewhat higher buoyancy (500-750 J/kg MLCAPE) resides from northern WV into western PA. Additionally, 30-40 knot mid-level flow sampled by the recent RAOB is adequate to support supercells. The thermodynamic environment should continue to wane heading into the overnight hours, and stronger forcing for ascent will increasingly overspread a less buoyant air mass to the north, though a severe hail threat may persist for the next couple of hours. ...Coastal Carolinas into southeast Virginia... Thunderstorms continue to develop and propagate along a weakly confluent marine boundary draped from south-central VA into the eastern Carolinas. Dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s continue to contribute to around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE (perhaps best sampled by the 00 UTC CHS sounding). A localized hail/wind threat should persist with ongoing convection given adequate buoyancy and deep-layer shear, but nocturnal cooling should increase low-level stability and limit thunderstorm coverage and intensity through the overnight hours. Latest guidance hints that an early-morning (10-12 UTC) round of thunderstorms is possible across north-central NC into southeast VA. Strong mid-level flow should remain over the region and may support organized cells with an attendant hail/wind threat. ...New Mexico into western Texas... Long-lived supercells continue to migrate across far southeast NM into western TX as of 00 UTC. A strengthening low-level jet will help elongate low to mid-level hodographs as well as maintain moisture advection from the southeast. As a result, supercell maintenance is likely for the next few hours before cells drift further east into TX and out of the primary low-level jet/moist advection axis. Persistent lift across the region in the vicinity of the terminus of the low-level jet and within the left-exit region of an approaching upper jet may support additional strong/severe storms later tonight. However, more limited buoyancy/increased inhibition should limit storm coverage. Therefore, opted to remove Slight-risk caliber risk probabilities, but maintain low-end probabilities to address the severe potential for additional overnight storms. ..Moore.. 05/05/2025 Read more

WW 0222 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 222 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW GDP TO 25 NW CNM TO 40 ESE ROW TO 40 N HOB TO 55 NNE HOB. ..KERR..05/05/25 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF...EPZ...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 222 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC011-015-025-050140- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DE BACA EDDY LEA TXC003-079-103-109-135-165-301-389-475-495-501-050140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREWS COCHRAN CRANE CULBERSON ECTOR GAINES LOVING REEVES WARD WINKLER YOAKUM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 222 SEVERE TSTM NM TX 041920Z - 050300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 222 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 120 PM MDT Sun May 4 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast New Mexico West Texas * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 120 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Supercell thunderstorms will pose a threat for mainly large to very large hail up to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter this afternoon and evening. Isolated severe gusts of 60-70 mph may also occur, along with a tornado or two primarily this evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 75 miles north of Roswell NM to 45 miles south southwest of Wink TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24025. ...Gleason Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun May 4 22:16:05 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0413 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the extended period. Some windy/dry conditions will continue across far west Texas as southern stream westerly flow aloft continues with an upper-level low slowly drifting out of the Plains through D5/Thursday. Heights will then rise across the Southwest with building high pressure aloft. This upper-level ridge will slowly build into the central US through the extended period, bringing lighter winds across the areas where fuels remain the driest. Some overlap of windy/dry conditions may occur across Montana and the Dakotas as occasional shortwaves traverse the northern periphery of the ridge across the southern Canada. ..Thornton.. 05/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0413 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the extended period. Some windy/dry conditions will continue across far west Texas as southern stream westerly flow aloft continues with an upper-level low slowly drifting out of the Plains through D5/Thursday. Heights will then rise across the Southwest with building high pressure aloft. This upper-level ridge will slowly build into the central US through the extended period, bringing lighter winds across the areas where fuels remain the driest. Some overlap of windy/dry conditions may occur across Montana and the Dakotas as occasional shortwaves traverse the northern periphery of the ridge across the southern Canada. ..Thornton.. 05/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more