SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern High Plains into parts of central Texas Monday afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats. Additional strong to severe storms are possible along the eastern Florida coast and from northeast North Carolina to the Lake Erie vicinity. ...Synopsis... Two upper-level lows, one in the Ohio Valley and the other in the Southwest, will make slow eastward progress on Monday. A cold front from the Upper Ohio Valley southward into the Mid-Atlantic and central Florida will be a focus for convection during the afternoon. In the southern High Plains, a surface trough/dryline will form and promote afternoon thunderstorms as greater moisture moves westward into the region. ...Southern High Plains into Central Texas... As the upper low advances toward the region late Sunday into Monday, some convection is possible from northeast New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma. Low cloud cover is also expected along with the moisture returning northwest across Texas into eastern New Mexico. While these will be complicating factors in the forecast, the approach of the upper low and embedded perturbations will encourage the development of a dryline from far eastern New Mexico into the Trans-Pecos. Strong heating along this dryline, where upper 50s to mid 60s dewpoints will reside, will drive storm development during the afternoon. Hodographs will initially be rather straight. Splitting supercells capable of large/very-large hail and severe winds are probable. During the early evening, the low-level jet will strengthen. Moisture return will increase and low-level hodographs will become larger. A zone of greater tornado potential is evident from southern portions of the South Plains into the northern Permian Basin, particularly for supercells lasting into the early evening. The evolution of convection becomes a bit more uncertain into the later evening. The ramp up in the low-level jet should eventually promote upscale growth into a cluster/MCS. This activity could persist into parts of central Texas. Model guidance continues to differ on the placement of this feature. The exact track will depend largely on how far north the greater moisture is able to advect. Severe winds would be the primary threat with these storms, though low-level shear would also support some tornado risk even with a linear mode. During the overnight and into Tuesday morning, the greatest mid-level height falls will occur in the southern High Plains. An additional cluster/MCS on the retreating dryline. How severe this activity will be is unclear given the time of day and the preceding convection. ...Florida... With cold temperatures aloft (-10 to -12 C) remaining over the Peninsula and stronger surface heating expected to occur, a few strong to severe storms will again be possible along the eastern sea breeze boundary. 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE and 25-35 kts of effective shear (stronger to the north) will promote supercell structures capable of large hail and damaging winds. A brief tornado would be possible with storms that interact favorably with the sea breeze boundary. ...Mid-Atlantic into Upper Ohio Valley... While some precipitation and cloud cover may occur early Monday morning, models continue to show agreement that pockets of surface heating will promote around 1000 J/kg by the afternoon. Enhanced mid-level winds around the Ohio Valley upper low will foster 40-45 kts of effective shear. Isolated large hail and strong/damaging winds will be possible with the strongest storms. ..Wendt.. 05/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EAST-CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST NM AND A SMALL PART OF ADJACENT WEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe storms are forecast across east-central and southeast New Mexico this afternoon and evening, with a threat for large hail, isolated severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. Other strong to locally severe storms are possible from Florida northward into the Mid Atlantic and Allegheny Plateau. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper-level pattern will remain in place today across the CONUS. A deep trough will cover much of the West, as an embedded mid/upper-level cyclone moves slowly eastward across the Southwest. Farther east, a deep mid/upper-level cyclone is forecast to remain nearly stationary over parts of the OH/TN Valleys. At the surface, a cold front will continue moving across parts of the Southeast, while the Mid-Atlantic portion of the front is expected to move little through the day. A weak surface low will may persist across OH/WV/southwest PA, with other weak waves potentially developing along the front. Farther west, lee troughing will result in strengthening southeasterly low-level flow into parts of NM and west TX, accompanied by modest moisture return. ...NM into west TX... While low-level moisture will remain rather limited, dewpoints increasing through the 40s to near 50 F beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will result in MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg by late afternoon into the evening. Large-scale ascent downstream of the midlevel cyclone over the Southwest will aid in development of scattered to numerous thunderstorms from northern into east-central NM, with more isolated storms possible into far southeast NM and west TX. Veering wind profiles and increasing midlevel flow will provide sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization, and development of a few supercells will be possible. Large hail and localized severe gusts will be possible. In addition, enlarging low-level hodographs and gradually improving moisture could support a tornado or two if any mature supercells can persist through late afternoon into the evening. ...Florida... A few stronger storms will be possible across parts of north FL during the morning, in the vicinity of the cold front. Depending on the evolution of any morning convection and related cloudiness, relatively cold temperatures aloft and diurnal heating will allow for moderate destabilization during the afternoon. Scattered diurnal storm development is expected, especially in the vicinity of the Atlantic sea breeze. MLCAPE of around 2000 J/kg and effective shear of 25-30 kt will support potentially organized storms capable of hail and damaging gusts. Some tornado threat could also materialize in the vicinity of the sea breeze or any other boundaries. Some uncertainty remains regarding how any morning convection and its possible persistence will affect sea-breeze-related storm development, especially with northward extent up the coast. ...Allegheny Plateau into the Carolinas... Cold temperatures aloft may support modest diurnal destabilization across parts of OH/WV/western PA. Storm development may be aided during the afternoon by one or more low-amplitude vorticity maxima rotating around the midlevel cyclone. Low-level flow is expected to remain rather weak, but modestly veering wind profiles and moderate midlevel flow could support some storm organization, if sufficient buoyancy can be realized. Hail and locally gusty winds could accompany the strongest storms. A mesoscale corridor of somewhat greater threat could evolve, depending on the magnitude of heating/destabilization. Farther south into the Carolinas and parts of the Mid Atlantic, somewhat stronger diurnal heating is expected, and MLCAPE may increase to near/above 1000 J/kg. However, storm coverage is more uncertain, with a notable midlevel dry slot and only weak to modest large-scale ascent expected with southward extent. Any storms that can mature within this environment could become modestly organized with a threat of isolated hail and damaging gusts. ...Eastern ID into southwest MT... Scattered storm development is possible this afternoon and evening from eastern ID into southwest MT, within an environment characterized by cold temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates. Deep-layer shear will be relatively modest, but a couple stronger storms with small hail and gusty winds will be possible. If trends end up supporting the more aggressive guidance regarding destabilization in this area, then severe probabilities may eventually be needed. ..Dean/Moore.. 05/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EAST-CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST NM AND A SMALL PART OF ADJACENT WEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe storms are forecast across east-central and southeast New Mexico this afternoon and evening, with a threat for large hail, isolated severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. Other strong to locally severe storms are possible from Florida northward into the Mid Atlantic and Allegheny Plateau. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper-level pattern will remain in place today across the CONUS. A deep trough will cover much of the West, as an embedded mid/upper-level cyclone moves slowly eastward across the Southwest. Farther east, a deep mid/upper-level cyclone is forecast to remain nearly stationary over parts of the OH/TN Valleys. At the surface, a cold front will continue moving across parts of the Southeast, while the Mid-Atlantic portion of the front is expected to move little through the day. A weak surface low will may persist across OH/WV/southwest PA, with other weak waves potentially developing along the front. Farther west, lee troughing will result in strengthening southeasterly low-level flow into parts of NM and west TX, accompanied by modest moisture return. ...NM into west TX... While low-level moisture will remain rather limited, dewpoints increasing through the 40s to near 50 F beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will result in MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg by late afternoon into the evening. Large-scale ascent downstream of the midlevel cyclone over the Southwest will aid in development of scattered to numerous thunderstorms from northern into east-central NM, with more isolated storms possible into far southeast NM and west TX. Veering wind profiles and increasing midlevel flow will provide sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization, and development of a few supercells will be possible. Large hail and localized severe gusts will be possible. In addition, enlarging low-level hodographs and gradually improving moisture could support a tornado or two if any mature supercells can persist through late afternoon into the evening. ...Florida... A few stronger storms will be possible across parts of north FL during the morning, in the vicinity of the cold front. Depending on the evolution of any morning convection and related cloudiness, relatively cold temperatures aloft and diurnal heating will allow for moderate destabilization during the afternoon. Scattered diurnal storm development is expected, especially in the vicinity of the Atlantic sea breeze. MLCAPE of around 2000 J/kg and effective shear of 25-30 kt will support potentially organized storms capable of hail and damaging gusts. Some tornado threat could also materialize in the vicinity of the sea breeze or any other boundaries. Some uncertainty remains regarding how any morning convection and its possible persistence will affect sea-breeze-related storm development, especially with northward extent up the coast. ...Allegheny Plateau into the Carolinas... Cold temperatures aloft may support modest diurnal destabilization across parts of OH/WV/western PA. Storm development may be aided during the afternoon by one or more low-amplitude vorticity maxima rotating around the midlevel cyclone. Low-level flow is expected to remain rather weak, but modestly veering wind profiles and moderate midlevel flow could support some storm organization, if sufficient buoyancy can be realized. Hail and locally gusty winds could accompany the strongest storms. A mesoscale corridor of somewhat greater threat could evolve, depending on the magnitude of heating/destabilization. Farther south into the Carolinas and parts of the Mid Atlantic, somewhat stronger diurnal heating is expected, and MLCAPE may increase to near/above 1000 J/kg. However, storm coverage is more uncertain, with a notable midlevel dry slot and only weak to modest large-scale ascent expected with southward extent. Any storms that can mature within this environment could become modestly organized with a threat of isolated hail and damaging gusts. ...Eastern ID into southwest MT... Scattered storm development is possible this afternoon and evening from eastern ID into southwest MT, within an environment characterized by cold temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates. Deep-layer shear will be relatively modest, but a couple stronger storms with small hail and gusty winds will be possible. If trends end up supporting the more aggressive guidance regarding destabilization in this area, then severe probabilities may eventually be needed. ..Dean/Moore.. 05/04/2025 Read more

MD 0676 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 221... FOR NORTHEAST GEORGINA INTO WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 0676 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0914 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Areas affected...Northeast Georgina into western South Carolina Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 221... Valid 040214Z - 040415Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 221 continues. SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat may persist downstream of WW 221 into northeast Georgia and western South Carolina. However, continued nocturnal stabilization should limit the coverage of this threat. DISCUSSION...A well-balanced squall line continues to push east across northern GA and far western SC. Additionally, a timeseries of the KCAE VWP depicts low-level warm advection increasing as south/southwesterly 925-850 mb flow overspreads a residual cold pool in place across SC. This is providing sufficient lift for discrete cells ahead of the line from far eastern GA into SC. MRMS echo tops/vertically integrated liquid and GOES IR imagery all suggest that this convection is not overly robust; however, a residual pocket of around 500 J/kg MLCAPE resides immediately downstream of the squall line and within the zone of warm-advection ascent. Given the strong low-level shear in place across the region (roughly 30 knots of 0-1 km BWD), local surges within the line may continue to support swaths of damaging winds and/or brief circulations. Based on recent HRRR solutions, this potential may linger through 06 UTC into central SC. Transient supercells within the warm advection regime may also pose a large hail/damaging wind threat. Continued diurnal cooling/stabilization should limit the coverage of these threats and make watch issuance downstream of WW 221 unlikely at this time. ..Moore.. 05/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...FFC... LAT...LON 33228408 33728348 34248302 34698277 35018268 35128253 35218207 35198154 35138098 35058083 34538064 34188074 33718112 33308166 33108224 32928328 32838374 32828397 32868415 33008423 33138420 33228408 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0221 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 221 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE GZH TO 20 SW CSG TO 25 ESE LGC TO 25 SE ATL TO 25 W AND. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0675 ..MOORE..05/04/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 221 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC005-011-109-113-040240- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBOUR BULLOCK PIKE RUSSELL GAC021-035-059-079-133-159-169-171-195-207-211-215-219-221-237- 263-269-293-297-040240- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BIBB BUTTS CLARKE CRAWFORD GREENE JASPER JONES LAMAR MADISON MONROE MORGAN MUSCOGEE OCONEE OGLETHORPE PUTNAM TALBOT TAYLOR UPSON WALTON Read more

WW 221 SEVERE TSTM AL GA 032235Z - 040300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 221 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 535 PM CDT Sat May 3 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of East central Alabama West central into north Georgia * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 535 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A line of storms with a history of some wind damage will continue eastward across north Georgia this evening. Farther south, the environment does support supercells capable of producing isolated large hail up to 1.5 inches in diameter and damaging gusts of 60-70 mph. An isolated tornado or two may occur with the supercells and/or embedded circulations in the line. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 75 miles north northeast of Atlanta GA to 20 miles south of Montgomery AL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 219...WW 220... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Thompson Read more

WW 0220 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 220 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW EWR TO 15 ESE PHL TO 40 W ILG. ..KERR..05/04/25 ATTN...WFO...PHI... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 220 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NJC019-021-023-027-035-041-040240- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HUNTERDON MERCER MIDDLESEX MORRIS SOMERSET WARREN PAC011-017-029-045-077-091-095-101-040240- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERKS BUCKS CHESTER DELAWARE LEHIGH MONTGOMERY NORTHAMPTON PHILADELPHIA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0219 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 219 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W ILG TO 35 E CXY. REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 219 COULD BE CANCELLED PRIOR TO 04/02Z, OTHERWISE WW 219 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 04/02Z. ..KERR..05/04/25 ATTN...WFO...LWX...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 219 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MDC015-040200- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CECIL PAC071-040200- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LANCASTER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST AL...CENTRAL/NORTHERN GA...UPSTATE SC...AND ALSO FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms remain possible tonight from the Southeast into parts of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. ...Southeast into the Mid Atlantic/Northeast... A cluster of strong to locally severe storms is moving across parts of central/south AL into north GA this evening, generally along and just ahead of a cold front. Favorable ascent related to a midlevel cyclone anchored over the mid MS/lower OH Valleys may help to sustain these storms through part of the evening as they move eastward, with a threat of locally damaging gusts, localized hail, and possibly a tornado or two. Additional strong to locally severe storms may also continue this evening within a somewhat more moist and unstable environment from south AL into the FL Panhandle. There is some potential for strong storms to spread into the northern FL Peninsula overnight, within a relatively unstable and favorably sheared environment. From the Carolinas into the Mid Atlantic, multiple storm clusters are moving northeastward within a narrow axis of modest instability. Moderate deep-layer shear will continue to support occasionally organized convection and potential for isolated damaging wind and hail. A general weakening trend is expected with time through the evening across the Mid Atlantic, as remaining instability continues to diminish. Overnight across the Carolinas, a few strong storms may move in from the west and/or develop in place, aided by a modestly strengthening low-level jet. ...Far West Texas... A couple small but relatively organized cells are ongoing across Far West TX early this evening. MLCAPE of around 500 J/kg and sufficient deep-layer shear will continue to support potential for isolated strong storms through the evening, with isolated hail possible. ...Parts of NV/ID/OR... High-based convection has produced occasional strong to locally severe gusts across parts of NV through the afternoon. Steep low-level lapse rates could may continue to support localized severe-gust potential through the early evening, before the already meager buoyancy diminishes with the onset of nocturnal cooling. ..Dean.. 05/04/2025 Read more

MD 0673 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 0673 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0536 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Areas affected...South Carolina into south-central North Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 032236Z - 040030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will linger within an environment supportive of organized convection for the next couple of hours. Severe thunderstorm coverage and longevity is expected to remain sufficiently limited to preclude watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Across central SC, scattered thunderstorms continue to develop along the eastern flank of an expanding cold pool deposited by prior convection. Ahead of this boundary, temperatures are warming into the upper 70s and low 80s - a few degrees warmer than anticipated by some guidance - and southeasterly low-level flow is advecting low 60s dewpoints northward ahead of the ongoing convection. This is not only promoting slightly better buoyancy than depicted by guidance and recent mesoanalysis estimates, but is also maintaining a narrow warm sector ahead of the storms. Regional VWPs are sampling modest wind profiles with 0-6 km BWD values around 30 knots, which may promote periodic organization/intensification of ongoing convection with an attendant hail/damaging wind threat. A recent trend of cooling cloud-top temperatures over the past 30 minutes supports the idea that at least a low-end severe threat could materialize in the near term (next 1-2 hours). While sufficient for organized convection, deep-layer shear vectors are largely along the outflow boundary and/or into the residual cold pool. Consequently, this may limit storm longevity/intensity and should modulate the overall severe threat as this activity continues to propagate north/northeast into south-central NC. Additionally, the onset of nocturnal cooling in the coming hours should begin to diminish buoyancy and lead to an overall weakening trend after roughly 00 UTC. ..Moore/Thompson.. 05/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE... LAT...LON 32958127 33528109 35437991 35757958 35837902 35837873 35727851 35567842 35497841 35247852 33637990 32958055 32808073 32758092 32788111 32958127 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 0675 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 221... FOR EASTERN ALABAMA INTO NORTHERN GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0675 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0714 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Areas affected...Eastern Alabama into northern Georgia Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 221... Valid 040014Z - 040215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 221 continues. SUMMARY...The potential for damaging gusts and perhaps brief embedded circulations continues across eastern Alabama and northern Georgia. DISCUSSION...Over the past 30 minutes, GOES IR imagery show gradually warming cloud-top temperatures associated with an organized squall line across north-central GA. This weakening trend is likely associated with the recent onset of the early-evening transition with temperatures beginning to fall into the mid 60s. Continued nocturnal cooling/stabilization should continue the weakening trend, though recent surface observations and high-res guidance suggests that damaging winds (generally 35-55 mph) may persist for the next couple of hours given the adequately sheared and buoyant environment. Further south across eastern AL into far western GA, warmer temperatures have allowed for continued storm development ahead of the line. The ingestion of the new cells appears to be locally reinforcing the cold pool as small-scale outflow surges are noted in KMXX and KFFC velocity data, and a stronger mid-level wind surge is observable from KBMX. These trends suggest that eastern AL into far western GA may see the best potential for a severe gust over the next 1-2 hours. Additionally, short-lived embedded circulation continue to be noted within the past hour, and this potential should persist given the aforementioned outflow surges within an adequately sheared environment. Heading deeper into the evening hours, the overall severe threat should begin to wane as nocturnal stabilization continues to hinder surface-based convection. ..Moore.. 05/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GSP...FFC...BMX...MOB... LAT...LON 32128641 32638566 32998523 33228504 33688454 34258414 34518381 34568362 34488342 34268326 33978327 33668344 33238371 32928392 32708412 32488438 32258468 32048511 31908550 31908575 31978612 32008632 32128641 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0220 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 220 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KERR..05/04/25 ATTN...WFO...PHI... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 220 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MDC029-040140- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NJC005-007-015-019-021-023-025-027-029-033-035-041-040140- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BURLINGTON CAMDEN GLOUCESTER HUNTERDON MERCER MIDDLESEX MONMOUTH MORRIS OCEAN SALEM SOMERSET WARREN PAC011-017-029-045-077-091-095-101-040140- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERKS BUCKS CHESTER DELAWARE LEHIGH MONTGOMERY Read more

WW 220 SEVERE TSTM DE MD NJ PA CW 032150Z - 040300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 220 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 550 PM EDT Sat May 3 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Delaware Far northeastern Maryland New Jersey East central Pennsylvania Coastal Waters * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 550 PM until 1100 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered supercells will be possible through the evening with large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter and isolated wind damage. Some clustering of storms now in northern Maryland could spread into the watch area later this evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles east and west of a line from 10 miles south of Wilmington DE to 25 miles west northwest of Newark NJ. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 218...WW 219... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 25025. ...Thompson Read more

WW 0219 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 219 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE BWI TO 15 N BWI TO 35 NNE BWI TO 25 ESE CXY. ..KERR..05/04/25 ATTN...WFO...LWX...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 219 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MDC015-025-040140- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CECIL HARFORD PAC071-040140- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LANCASTER ANZ530-040140- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 219 SEVERE TSTM DC MD PA VA WV CW 032035Z - 040200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 219 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 435 PM EDT Sat May 3 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Central into Northeast Maryland Southeast Pennsylvania Northern Virginia The Far Eastern West Virginia Panhandle Coastal Waters * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 435 PM until 1000 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered supercells should pose some threat for severe hail around 1-1.5 inches in diameter and damaging winds late this afternoon into the evening. A tornado or two may also occur. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 35 statute miles east and west of a line from 65 miles north of Baltimore MD to 65 miles southwest of Washington DC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 218... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0218 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 218 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S ORH TO 25 S CON TO 10 W PSM. ..KERR..05/03/25 ATTN...WFO...BOX...ALY...GYX...OKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 218 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC013-032240- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE TOLLAND MAC017-032240- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MIDDLESEX NHC015-032240- NH . NEW HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ROCKINGHAM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 0218 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 218 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S ORH TO 25 S CON TO 10 W PSM. ..KERR..05/03/25 ATTN...WFO...BOX...ALY...GYX...OKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 218 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC013-032240- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE TOLLAND MAC017-032240- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MIDDLESEX NHC015-032240- NH . NEW HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ROCKINGHAM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 0221 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 221 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW SEM TO 35 NNE MGM TO 30 NW LGC TO 55 SSE TYS. ..MOORE..05/03/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 221 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC005-011-017-047-051-081-085-087-101-109-113-123-040040- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBOUR BULLOCK CHAMBERS DALLAS ELMORE LEE LOWNDES MACON MONTGOMERY PIKE RUSSELL TALLAPOOSA GAC011-013-035-063-067-077-085-089-097-113-117-121-135-139-145- 149-151-157-171-187-199-215-217-231-247-255-263-285-293-297- 040040- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANKS BARROW BUTTS CLAYTON COBB COWETA DAWSON DEKALB DOUGLAS FAYETTE FORSYTH FULTON GWINNETT HALL HARRIS HEARD HENRY JACKSON LAMAR LUMPKIN MERIWETHER Read more

MD 0670 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR THE TRANS-PECOS IN SOUTHWEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0670 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Areas affected...the Trans-Pecos in southwest Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 032006Z - 032230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...An isolated supercell or two, capable of large hail, may develop this afternoon. If storms form and intensify, the severe threat should still be isolated, so a WW issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Convection continues to deepen across the Trans-Pecos region in southwest TX as warming surface temperatures beneath 7 C/km mid-level lapse rates contributes to 500+ J/kg MLCAPE. Despite mid-level ridging, the overspreading of a 60-80 kt 300 mb jet stream is resulting in 40+ kts of 0-6 km speed shear (per latest RAP forecast soundings and mesoanalysis). This vertical shear profile, along with the aforementioned buoyancy, is adequate in supporting supercell storm modes capable of producing large hail with any updrafts that can mature and sustain themselves. Given modest instability and ascent, storm development should remain quite isolated, along with any severe threat that manages to materialize. Given the anticipated isolated severe threat, a WW issuance is unlikely. ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 05/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...MAF...EPZ... LAT...LON 31010569 31230513 31170422 31050308 30670203 30090164 29750173 29710228 29650256 29350275 28990303 28940329 29110392 29490440 29750463 30140483 30460500 30600517 31010569 MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0219 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0219 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more