MD 0679 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
Mesoscale Discussion 0679 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Areas affected...portions of the southern Florida Peninsula Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 041737Z - 042000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat may accompany the stronger, longer lasting storms, with strong wind gusts and hail being the main threats. Given the isolated nature of the severe threat, a WW issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Multiple multicellular clusters/possible transient supercells have developed across the southern FL Peninsula amid a destabilizing airmass. Surface temperatures are well into the 80s F, with surface dewpoints exceeding 70 F, contributing to over 1500 J/kg MLCAPE given 7+ C/km low-level lapse rates. A 60+ kt 300 mb wind maximum is approaching the southern FL Peninsula, which will contribute to elongated mid/upper-level hodographs. The resulting deep-layer speed shear (perhaps exceeding 40 kts) should support the production of both hail and strong wind gusts in the longer lived, more organized storms, especially if a sustained supercell can materialize. A tornado also cannot be completely ruled out with any storms interacting with outflow or sea-breeze boundaries. Overall though, the severe threat should remain isolated, so a WW issuance is not anticipated. ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 05/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB... LAT...LON 25378052 25908096 26298122 26858127 27118084 27168032 27018007 26268000 25898002 25528021 25308032 25378052 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 0680 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
Mesoscale Discussion 0680 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Areas affected...eastern parts of the Florida Peninsula Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 041759Z - 042030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Sparse strong wind gusts may accompany the stronger storms that develop, and an instance of hail cannot be ruled out. A WW issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are maturing along a remnant frontal boundary across the northern Florida Peninsula, and are poised to progress into a destabilizing airmass, where over 1500 J/kg MLCAPE is already in place. Despite adequate buoyancy, deep-layer shear is expected to be weaker compared to the southern FL Peninsula, where the 300 mb jet maximum will be located later this afternoon. As such, the modest buoyancy and mediocre shear profile should limit severe wind and hail from becoming widespread, though a couple of strong wind gusts are still possible, along with an instance of hail. Given the isolated nature of the severe threat, a WW issuance appears unlikely. ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 05/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX... LAT...LON 27238151 28048174 29408213 30058222 30398220 30498188 30208148 29208097 28678064 28388061 27768043 27438033 27178046 27088097 27098116 27238151 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 0681 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR WESTERN/CENTRAL/NORTHERN NM
Mesoscale Discussion 0681 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Areas affected...western/central/northern NM Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 041802Z - 042000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...To the northwest of the more favorable supercell regime in southeast New Mexico, sporadic/isolated severe wind gusts along with small to marginally severe hail will be possible through the afternoon. A severe thunderstorm watch appears unlikely. DISCUSSION...Similar to southeast NM, a difluent upper-level flow regime and orographic forcing will support scattered high-based convection this afternoon, centered on west-central to northwest and north-central NM. However, this will remain within a predominantly meridional flow regime, limiting veering of the wind profile with height. Coupled with surface dew points predominately holding in the 30s, supporting only meager buoyancy, overall setup is unlikely to sustain organized severe. Nevertheless, well-mixed thermodynamic profiles will offer a threat for sporadic strong to isolated severe gusts, as convection moves north-northeast this afternoon. ..Grams/Gleason.. 05/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ... LAT...LON 36950668 36570557 35670480 34850456 34270624 33220656 33120741 34080806 35820861 36530846 36950668 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 0682 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 0682 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Areas affected...portions of eastern North Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 041816Z - 042045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...An isolated damaging gust threat may accompany the stronger storms today, and an instance or two of hail cannot be ruled out. A WW issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are increasing in coverage and intensity along a confluence zone in southern NC per latest MRMS mosaic radar imagery and visible satellite. Surface temperatures remain relatively cool given considerable cloud cover. However, surface dewpoints are in the upper 60s to 70 F, which is supporting marginal buoyancy in spots (i.e. 500+ J/kg MLCAPE). A southwesterly 500 mb jet max is glancing by the Carolina Piedmont to the west, contributing to 35 kts of effective bulk shear ahead of the developing/ongoing storms. As such, any storms that can take advantage of locally higher pockets of buoyancy may intensify enough to produce a few damaging wind gusts and perhaps a couple instances of marginally severe hail. Nonetheless, the overall sparse nature of the severe threat precludes a WW issuance. ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 05/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM... LAT...LON 33897829 33927847 34097866 34397876 35127836 35467811 36387709 36397642 36087578 35507584 34977625 34737691 34387757 34077782 33897793 33897829 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 0683 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST KENTUCKY INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OHIO...EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0683 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Areas affected...portions of northeast Kentucky into central and southern Ohio...extreme southwestern Pennsylvania...much of West Virginia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 041834Z - 042100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat may develop into mid afternoon with the stronger storms. Several bouts of small hail may occur, with a few instances of marginally severe hail and gusty winds also possible. A tornado cannot be ruled out. A WW issuance is unlikely given the isolated nature of the severe threat. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are increasing in coverage and intensity beneath a nearly vertically stacked cyclone, where colder temperatures aloft are overspreading a warming/destabilizing boundary layer. Despite mediocre vertical wind shear, 500 mb temperatures dropping below -20C indicate the potential for at least small hail development in the stronger storm cores, with a couple instances of marginally severe hail possible with the more persistent updrafts. A few strong wind gusts may also occur. Furthermore, a tornado cannot be ruled out given the deep-layer vertical vorticity rich environment over the eastern OH Valley. Nonetheless, given limited boundary-layer-based buoyancy, the overall coverage of severe is expected to be too low to warrant a WW issuance at this time. ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 05/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK... LAT...LON 39897977 38627985 37738047 37418123 37288202 37348312 37678394 38478432 39268415 40248330 40538239 40598226 41118103 40838035 39897977 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun May 4 18:37:02 UTC 2025.

MD 0678 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST NM AND FAR WEST TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0678 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Areas affected...southeast NM and far west TX Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 041722Z - 041915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...A few to several supercells, a couple of which may be long-lived, should develop across southeast New Mexico into parts of far west Texas this afternoon. Golf to tennis ball size hail, localized severe gusts to 70 mph, and a brief tornado will be possible. A severe thunderstorm watch will be needed. DISCUSSION...Despite modest low-level moisture, the northwest extent of mid to upper 40s surface dew points should be maintained through peak boundary-layer mixing. A difluent mid/upper flow regime downstream of a strong zonal jetlet, centered on the border area with northwest Mexico, and orographic forcing will aid in sufficient ascent for scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. Low-level south-southeasterlies veering to the west-southwesterlies aloft will be favorable for supercells, a couple of which may be long-lived. Initial supercells should remain tied to the higher terrain near the Sacramento Mountains into the far northern portion of the Trans-Pecos with effective bulk shear from 30-40 kts. This will increase above 40 kts towards late afternoon. Robust speed shear in the upper portion of the buoyancy profile coupled with MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg should yield a threat for significant severe hail. The overall spatial extent of sustained supercells should be fairly confined, owing to more pronounced MLCIN southward in the Trans-Pecos and diminishing buoyancy northward in NM. ..Grams/Gleason.. 05/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... LAT...LON 33000620 33620623 34170608 34440475 33830393 33060301 32540281 31930292 31280315 30880398 31370457 31920522 33000620 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from the southern High Plains into parts of central Texas Monday afternoon and evening. Scattered large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats, though a couple of tornadoes also are possible. Additional strong to severe storms are possible along the eastern Florida coast and from northeast North Carolina to the Lake Erie vicinity. ...Synopsis... A pair of upper cyclones, one over the Ohio Valley and the other across the Southwest, will pivot east on Monday. These systems will support a belt of enhanced mid/upper flow across the southern Rockies/High Plains and the Mid-Atlantic/Lower Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold front will stretch from the Mid-Atlantic south/southwest into north-central FL. Meanwhile, a dryline is forecast to develop across eastern NM and southwest TX, while a warm front lifts slowly northward across northwest and central TX. These features will focus potential for severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon into the evening/overnight. ...Southeast NM into Central TX... Southeasterly low-level flow will transport 60s F dewpoints northwest toward southeast NM into the Trans-Pecos vicinity ahead of a sharpening dryline. Strong heating along/just behind the dryline will foster moderate diurnal destabilization as deep-layer flow strengthens. Forecast hodographs initially will be elongated/straight through the afternoon and early evening. Splitting supercells produce large/very large hail are expected with initial convection. Furthermore, steep low-level lapse rates where stronger heating occurs also could support strong/severe gusts. During the evening, a low-level jet will increase, resulting in enlarged/curved low-level hodographs. Additional rounds of supercells may develop as the dryline begins to retreat and stronger ascent overspreads the region. This activity will continue to pose a significant hail risk with an increasing risk for a couple of tornadoes. As the upper low draws closer to the southern Rockies during the nighttime hours, weak cyclogenesis may occur over far southwest TX. Additional thunderstorm clusters, possibly growing upscale into an MCS propagating along the higher theta-e gradient across west-central to central TX is possible. It is uncertain how intense this convection may become given multiple rounds of convection across parts of the area earlier in the day, but some risk for damaging gusts and a tornado or two will persist. ...OK/TX Panhandle into Northeast NM/southeast CO... With northward extent across the southern High Plains, northward moisture return will remain muted, with dewpoints generally in the 40s to low 50s F forecast. Nevertheless, cooling aloft will support steepening midlevel lapse rates amid strengthening vertical shear. Isolated large hail and gusty winds may accompany thunderstorm activity north of the effective warm front in an upslope flow regime. ...Mid-Atlantic to Lower Great Lakes... Pockets of heating into the afternoon amid mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints, and cold temperatures aloft will support modest destabilization (up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE) across the region. Enhanced midlevel flow will support effective shear values to around 35-45 kt. This should support isolated organized updrafts, with stronger cells having potential for large hail and locally strong gusts during the afternoon and early evening. ...FL... A surface cold front will sag south through the period. Furthermore, an east coast sea breeze developing ahead of the cold front appears probable. Strong heating amid mid 60s F dewpoints will aid in moderate destabilization (MLCAPE up to 2000 J/kg). Cool temperatures aloft (-10 to -12 C at 500 mb) will support midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km. While deep-layer flow will be somewhat weak through 700 mb, vertically veering wind profiles will support around 30 kt effective shear. Elongated/straight hodographs in conjunction with a favorable thermodynamic environment suggests isolated hail will be possible. Steep low-level lapse rates also will support strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 05/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of eastern New Mexico and west Texas this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, isolated severe wind gusts, and possibly a tornado or two may occur. ...New Mexico and West Texas... Large-scale ascent will increase this afternoon across NM and the southern High Plains as strong difluence aloft associated with an upper low over northwest Mexico and the Southwest moves eastward. Steep lapse rates aloft atop modest low-level moisture will act in tandem with daytime heating to foster up to 1000-1250 J/kg of MLCAPE across eastern NM and far west TX by mid afternoon. While low-level southeasterly flow will initially be modest, various RAP/NAM forecast soundings show substantial veering and some strengthening with height at mid/upper levels. Resultant long/straight hodographs aloft and strong deep-layer shear will likely support a few supercells with an attendant threat for large to very large hail (up to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter). Isolated severe wind gusts may also occur as this convection spreads slowly eastward across eastern NM into parts of west TX through the evening. Although low-level moisture will remain modest, a southeasterly low-level jet is also expected to gradually strengthen this evening, which should support enough 0-1 km SRH for a tornado or two with any sustained supercell. These thunderstorms will eventually weaken with eastward extent into west TX as MLCIN gradually increases by mid/late evening. ...Upper Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic to the Carolinas... An expansive closed mid/upper-level low will remain centered over the OH/TN Valleys today. A belt of stronger south-southwesterly mid-level winds will overspread parts of the upper OH Valley and southern Mid-Atlantic through this evening. This enhanced flow along with upper-level difluence should provide sufficient large-scale ascent for isolated to scattered convection this afternoon across parts of OH into WV and western PA. Low-level moisture will remain somewhat limited across this area, with surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 50s. Even with filtered daytime heating, poor lapse rates aloft should keep any more than weak instability from developing. Various RAP forecast soundings across this region also show flow backing with height aloft, which lends considerable uncertainty regarding convective organization. While an isolated damaging wind/hail threat may exist, the overall environment should keep the severe threat fairly marginal. A somewhat separate area of convection may develop this afternoon across eastern NC into VA, generally along/ahead of a weak surface front. While these thunderstorms will have access to greater low-level moisture, both instability and deep-layer shear are expected to remain modest. Still, some risk for damaging winds and hail should exist with any cells or clusters that can develop, before this activity gradually weakens through the evening with the loss of daytime heating. ...Florida... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across parts of the southern/central FL Peninsula. A subtropical upper-level jet should continue to aid thunderstorm development across the FL Peninsula through the afternoon. But, persistent cloud cover and poor lapse rates aloft noted on area 12Z soundings may hinder destabilization to some degree. Even so, a rather moist low-level airmass exists along/south of a front over north FL/far southeast GA, and even modest further heating should support sufficient instability for surface-based convection. With weak low-level flow gradually veering to westerly and strengthening at mid/upper levels, this activity should have enough deep-layer shear for modest updraft organization. Thunderstorms may preferentially form on/near the Atlantic Coast sea breeze this afternoon while posing an isolated threat for severe hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a brief tornado. ...Eastern Idaho into Southern Montana... As a mid-level trough moves eastward over western Canada and the northern Rockies, scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon and evening across eastern Idaho into southwest Montana. This region will have steep mid-level lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft associated with the shortwave trough. Deep-layer shear is expected to remain modest, but a couple of stronger cores with small hail and gusty winds could still occur. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 05/04/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO... Slight adjustments were made to the D1 Elevated and Critical areas in New Mexico to remove Catron and Socorro counties where more recent rainfall has occurred and additional rainfall is possible today. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected across parts of the Southwest and northern Plains this afternoon. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depict an upper wave over southern CA with a broad zone of ascent overspreading the Great Basin and Southwest. At the surface, pressure falls are noted over the Four Corners region and northern High Plains and should continue well into the afternoon hours as the upper wave gradually drifts east. Increasing southerly winds across along both international borders should result in areas of dry/windy conditions. ...Southwest New Mexico... Dewpoints in the low teens are noted in far southeast AZ early this morning, which appear to be the northwestern periphery of a very dry air mass in place across northern Mexico based on recent RTMA analyses. This air mass will spread north through the day as southerly winds increase in response the surface low development over the Four Corners region. Afternoon RH minimums in the teens are likely with 15-25 mph overspreading much of southeast AZ and southwest NM. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected over an area with receptive fuels. Dry/windy conditions may extend well north of the current outline lines, but recent rainfall and/or the potential for showers/thunderstorms this afternoon should limit the spatial extent of the threat. ...North Dakota... Southerly winds between 15-20 mph are expected across much of the northern Plains this afternoon as a surface trough deepens along the northern High Plains. A recent frontal intrusion into the Gulf has shunted appreciable moisture well south into the southern Plains, limiting the potential for moisture return over the next 12 hours. Additionally, unseasonably warm high temperatures are forecast for today (into the 80s), which will support RH reductions to near 20%. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely - especially along and north of the Highway 2 corridor where recent HRRR/RAP runs (which typically handle dry return flow regimes well) show the highest potential for sustained 20 mph winds. Although much of the region has received some rainfall within the past week, local fuel and fire reports indicate that dry/dead grasses remain in the fuel landscape and should support fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0677 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INTO FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0677 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0547 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Areas affected...eastern North Carolina into far southeast Virginia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 041047Z - 041345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong gusts, and perhaps a brief/weak tornado, cannot be ruled out over eastern North Carolina and eventually into far southeast Virginia. DISCUSSION...A line of convection with wind shift continues to push east, now completely out of SC and over eastern NC. Earlier, a 50 kt gust was measured near North Myrtle Beach. In addition to the narrow north-south line of convection, other storms have developed ahead of the line. These storms have shown periodic weak mesocyclones. Other storms continue to show near-severe inbound velocities mainly over the water, but this activity may eventually move inland. The air mass is marginally unstable, but sufficient for isolated severe reports this morning. Low-level SRH with 0-1 km values of 100-150 m2/s2 will continue to favor rotation within the stronger storms, though any tornado risk should remain low-end in nature. ..Jewell/Guyer.. 05/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM... LAT...LON 34287759 34747770 35277766 35727769 36237777 36527764 36767746 36937694 37027655 36907623 36587595 36127580 35557602 34707651 34217694 34087732 34287759 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe storms are expected across east-central and southeast New Mexico and far west Texas this afternoon and evening, with a threat for large hail, isolated severe wind gusts, and possibly a tornado. Other strong to locally severe storms are possible from Florida northward into the Mid-Atlantic and Allegheny Plateau. ...New Mexico/West Texas... In advance of the upper trough over the Southwest Deserts, increasing height falls and strongly diffluent flow aloft will overspread a modestly moist boundary layer with prevalent 40s to near 50F surface dewpoints. Beneath steep mid-level lapse rates, upwards of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE is expected by late afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected across northern into east-central New Mexico, with more isolated storms expected into far southeast New Mexico and west Texas. Wind profiles veering with height and increasing mid-level southwesterly winds will provide sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization, including the probable development of a few supercells. Large hail and localized severe wind gusts will be possible. In addition, enlarging low-level hodographs and gradually improving low-level moisture could support a tornado or two if any mature supercells can persist through late afternoon into the evening. ...Florida... A cluster of storms across the north-central Peninsula, and to a lesser extent across the south-central Peninsula, may pose a localized severe risk as they continue eastward today. Existing cloud cover may tend to somewhat mute more robust heating, but gradual destabilization should still occur particularly along the east coast, which will also probably influence storm development. Effective shear of 25-30 kt will support potentially organized storms capable of hail and isolated damaging gusts, and some tornado threat may exist particularly in the vicinity of the sea breeze or any other boundaries. ...Allegheny Plateau into the Carolinas... East of the semi-stacked/closed low, cloud breaks and cold temperatures aloft should support modest diurnal destabilization across parts of Ohio and West Virginia into western Pennsylvania. Storm development should be aided one or more low-amplitude vorticity maxima rotating around the midlevel cyclone amidst diffluent flow aloft. Low-level winds are expected to remain rather weak, but modestly veering wind profiles and moderate mid-level flow could support some storm organization, if sufficient buoyancy can be realized. Hail and locally gusty winds could accompany the strongest storms, and a corridor of higher severe probabilities (Slight Risk caliber) may be warranted if a scenario with somewhat greater destabilization appears likely. Farther south into the Carolinas and parts of the Mid-Atlantic region, somewhat stronger diurnal heating is expected, and MLCAPE may increase to near/above 1000 J/kg. However, storm coverage is more uncertain, with a notable mid-level dry slot and only weak to modest large-scale ascent expected with southward extent. Any storms that can mature within this environment could become modestly organized with a threat of isolated hail and damaging gusts. ...Eastern Idaho/southwest Montana... Scattered storm development is expected this afternoon and evening across eastern Idaho into southwest Montana, within an environment characterized by cool temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates. Deep-layer shear will be relatively modest, but a few stronger storms with small hail and gusty winds could occur. Subsequent outlooks will reevaluate the need for a potential introduction of low-end severe probabilities. ..Guyer/Jewell.. 05/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe storms are expected across east-central and southeast New Mexico and far west Texas this afternoon and evening, with a threat for large hail, isolated severe wind gusts, and possibly a tornado. Other strong to locally severe storms are possible from Florida northward into the Mid-Atlantic and Allegheny Plateau. ...New Mexico/West Texas... In advance of the upper trough over the Southwest Deserts, increasing height falls and strongly diffluent flow aloft will overspread a modestly moist boundary layer with prevalent 40s to near 50F surface dewpoints. Beneath steep mid-level lapse rates, upwards of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE is expected by late afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected across northern into east-central New Mexico, with more isolated storms expected into far southeast New Mexico and west Texas. Wind profiles veering with height and increasing mid-level southwesterly winds will provide sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization, including the probable development of a few supercells. Large hail and localized severe wind gusts will be possible. In addition, enlarging low-level hodographs and gradually improving low-level moisture could support a tornado or two if any mature supercells can persist through late afternoon into the evening. ...Florida... A cluster of storms across the north-central Peninsula, and to a lesser extent across the south-central Peninsula, may pose a localized severe risk as they continue eastward today. Existing cloud cover may tend to somewhat mute more robust heating, but gradual destabilization should still occur particularly along the east coast, which will also probably influence storm development. Effective shear of 25-30 kt will support potentially organized storms capable of hail and isolated damaging gusts, and some tornado threat may exist particularly in the vicinity of the sea breeze or any other boundaries. ...Allegheny Plateau into the Carolinas... East of the semi-stacked/closed low, cloud breaks and cold temperatures aloft should support modest diurnal destabilization across parts of Ohio and West Virginia into western Pennsylvania. Storm development should be aided one or more low-amplitude vorticity maxima rotating around the midlevel cyclone amidst diffluent flow aloft. Low-level winds are expected to remain rather weak, but modestly veering wind profiles and moderate mid-level flow could support some storm organization, if sufficient buoyancy can be realized. Hail and locally gusty winds could accompany the strongest storms, and a corridor of higher severe probabilities (Slight Risk caliber) may be warranted if a scenario with somewhat greater destabilization appears likely. Farther south into the Carolinas and parts of the Mid-Atlantic region, somewhat stronger diurnal heating is expected, and MLCAPE may increase to near/above 1000 J/kg. However, storm coverage is more uncertain, with a notable mid-level dry slot and only weak to modest large-scale ascent expected with southward extent. Any storms that can mature within this environment could become modestly organized with a threat of isolated hail and damaging gusts. ...Eastern Idaho/southwest Montana... Scattered storm development is expected this afternoon and evening across eastern Idaho into southwest Montana, within an environment characterized by cool temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates. Deep-layer shear will be relatively modest, but a few stronger storms with small hail and gusty winds could occur. Subsequent outlooks will reevaluate the need for a potential introduction of low-end severe probabilities. ..Guyer/Jewell.. 05/04/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... The upper-level low in the Southwest will begin to weaken on Wednesday. Thereafter, it will make slow eastward progress before becoming a weak cutoff low over the lower Mississippi Valley by the weekend. This upper-level pattern will help push a surface boundary along and offshore of the Gulf Coast. As the weekend progresses, this boundary will move further offshore along with the weak upper low. In the West and Plains, upper-level ridging will become prominent and remain in place into the following week. Some moderate mid-level winds will likely remain along the Gulf Coast at least until this coming weekend. With some lingering moisture in the coastal regions, its possible that areas of localized severe risk will develop. However, the overall pattern will not be favorable for any areas of organized/predictable severe risk. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... The upper-level low in the Southwest will begin to weaken on Wednesday. Thereafter, it will make slow eastward progress before becoming a weak cutoff low over the lower Mississippi Valley by the weekend. This upper-level pattern will help push a surface boundary along and offshore of the Gulf Coast. As the weekend progresses, this boundary will move further offshore along with the weak upper low. In the West and Plains, upper-level ridging will become prominent and remain in place into the following week. Some moderate mid-level winds will likely remain along the Gulf Coast at least until this coming weekend. With some lingering moisture in the coastal regions, its possible that areas of localized severe risk will develop. However, the overall pattern will not be favorable for any areas of organized/predictable severe risk. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO EAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across much of Central into East Texas and western/central Louisiana. All severe hazards would be possible. ...Synopsis... An ejecting shortwave trough will lift northeastward through Central into Northeast Texas on Tuesday. Continued moisture advection northward will bring upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints in South/Central/Southeast Texas and parts of the lower Mississippi Valley. Early period precipitation appears likely along a warm front within the Red River region southeastward into Louisiana. Additional early precipitation is possible within the Edwards Plateau into Central Texas, but uncertainty is greater in this scenario. A dryline is expected in central Texas during the afternoon. ...Central Texas into Sabine Valley... The expectation of early day precipitation complicates the overall forecast for the afternoon. Even so, a very moist and weakly capped airmass is forecast to be in place south of the warm front and east of the developing dryline. The ECMWF is more aggressive with the early development of a cluster of storms/MCS. In this scenario, convection would likely strengthen as surface heating occurs ahead of it. The GFS/NAM show greater potential for the dryline to be a focus for convection during the afternoon. Here, supercells capable of all hazards would be possible. There is potential for significant severe, with very large hail being the primary concern, but uncertainty in the convective evolution keeps confidence too low to highlight any particularly area. ...Red River into ArkLaTex... Storms along the warm front will likely be ongoing early in the day and continue to develop within the warm advection regime into the afternoon. Strong shear and moderate buoyancy would promote a risk for large hail and damaging winds. Numerous storms and their interactions will tend to temper the overall severe threat. Many of these storms will be at least slightly elevated north of the boundary. Tornadoes could also occur with surface-based storms within the warm front zone. ..Wendt.. 05/04/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to shift into West Texas on Monday as a dryline consolidates in tandem with a deepening surface low through late afternoon. Lingering fire weather concerns are also possible through the Red River Valley of the north and across parts of southern New Mexico. ...West Texas... The upper wave currently over southern CA will continue to shift east over the next 48 hours, ejecting into the southern High Plains by late Monday afternoon. Southwesterly winds increasing to 15-25 mph behind a sharpening dryline will advect dry air from northern Mexico into West Texas. Relative humidity values falling into the teens to low 20s are likely by peak heating when boundary-layer mixing (and wind gust potential) will be maximized. Latest high-res guidance suggests a corridor of elevated fire weather is likely with localized critical conditions possible. ERC values between the 80th to 90th percentile should support the fire weather concern. ...New Mexico... Breezy west/southwest winds are likely Monday afternoon as the surface low consolidates to the east/southeast across West Texas. An influx of slightly more moist air from the west and mid-level cloud cover should limit diurnal heating and afternoon RH reductions to some degree. Latest ensemble guidance suggests that the best potential for sustained elevated fire weather conditions resides along the I-25 corridor in southwest NM where downslope warming/drying out of the Gila Region may promote locally drier/windier conditions. Risk probabilities were withheld for this outlook due to the weak ensemble signal/model dispersion and potential for precipitation over the next 24 hours within this corridor. ...Red River Valley of the North... Southerly gradient wind are expected to persist through Monday afternoon across much of eastern ND and northwest MN. With limited moisture return expected through the next 48 hours, afternoon RH minimums may fall into the low to mid 20s once again. Elevated conditions are possible, though a weaker wind signal compared to D1/Sunday, and the potential for a cold frontal passage late in the afternoon, limit confidence in the overall fire threat. Trends will continue to be monitored and highlights may be needed if guidance trends towards stronger winds and/or a later cold front arrival. ..Moore.. 05/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected across parts of the Southwest and northern Plains this afternoon. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depict an upper wave over southern CA with a broad zone of ascent overspreading the Great Basin and Southwest. At the surface, pressure falls are noted over the Four Corners region and northern High Plains and should continue well into the afternoon hours as the upper wave gradually drifts east. Increasing southerly winds across along both international borders should result in areas of dry/windy conditions. ...Southwest New Mexico... Dewpoints in the low teens are noted in far southeast AZ early this morning, which appear to be the northwestern periphery of a very dry air mass in place across northern Mexico based on recent RTMA analyses. This air mass will spread north through the day as southerly winds increase in response the surface low development over the Four Corners region. Afternoon RH minimums in the teens are likely with 15-25 mph overspreading much of southeast AZ and southwest NM. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected over an area with receptive fuels. Dry/windy conditions may extend well north of the current outline lines, but recent rainfall and/or the potential for showers/thunderstorms this afternoon should limit the spatial extent of the threat. ...North Dakota... Southerly winds between 15-20 mph are expected across much of the northern Plains this afternoon as a surface trough deepens along the northern High Plains. A recent frontal intrusion into the Gulf has shunted appreciable moisture well south into the southern Plains, limiting the potential for moisture return over the next 12 hours. Additionally, unseasonably warm high temperatures are forecast for today (into the 80s), which will support RH reductions to near 20%. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely - especially along and north of the Highway 2 corridor where recent HRRR/RAP runs (which typically handle dry return flow regimes well) show the highest potential for sustained 20 mph winds. Although much of the region has received some rainfall within the past week, local fuel and fire reports indicate that dry/dead grasses remain in the fuel landscape and should support fire spread. ..Moore.. 05/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected across parts of the Southwest and northern Plains this afternoon. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depict an upper wave over southern CA with a broad zone of ascent overspreading the Great Basin and Southwest. At the surface, pressure falls are noted over the Four Corners region and northern High Plains and should continue well into the afternoon hours as the upper wave gradually drifts east. Increasing southerly winds across along both international borders should result in areas of dry/windy conditions. ...Southwest New Mexico... Dewpoints in the low teens are noted in far southeast AZ early this morning, which appear to be the northwestern periphery of a very dry air mass in place across northern Mexico based on recent RTMA analyses. This air mass will spread north through the day as southerly winds increase in response the surface low development over the Four Corners region. Afternoon RH minimums in the teens are likely with 15-25 mph overspreading much of southeast AZ and southwest NM. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected over an area with receptive fuels. Dry/windy conditions may extend well north of the current outline lines, but recent rainfall and/or the potential for showers/thunderstorms this afternoon should limit the spatial extent of the threat. ...North Dakota... Southerly winds between 15-20 mph are expected across much of the northern Plains this afternoon as a surface trough deepens along the northern High Plains. A recent frontal intrusion into the Gulf has shunted appreciable moisture well south into the southern Plains, limiting the potential for moisture return over the next 12 hours. Additionally, unseasonably warm high temperatures are forecast for today (into the 80s), which will support RH reductions to near 20%. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely - especially along and north of the Highway 2 corridor where recent HRRR/RAP runs (which typically handle dry return flow regimes well) show the highest potential for sustained 20 mph winds. Although much of the region has received some rainfall within the past week, local fuel and fire reports indicate that dry/dead grasses remain in the fuel landscape and should support fire spread. ..Moore.. 05/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern High Plains into parts of central Texas Monday afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats. Additional strong to severe storms are possible along the eastern Florida coast and from northeast North Carolina to the Lake Erie vicinity. ...Synopsis... Two upper-level lows, one in the Ohio Valley and the other in the Southwest, will make slow eastward progress on Monday. A cold front from the Upper Ohio Valley southward into the Mid-Atlantic and central Florida will be a focus for convection during the afternoon. In the southern High Plains, a surface trough/dryline will form and promote afternoon thunderstorms as greater moisture moves westward into the region. ...Southern High Plains into Central Texas... As the upper low advances toward the region late Sunday into Monday, some convection is possible from northeast New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma. Low cloud cover is also expected along with the moisture returning northwest across Texas into eastern New Mexico. While these will be complicating factors in the forecast, the approach of the upper low and embedded perturbations will encourage the development of a dryline from far eastern New Mexico into the Trans-Pecos. Strong heating along this dryline, where upper 50s to mid 60s dewpoints will reside, will drive storm development during the afternoon. Hodographs will initially be rather straight. Splitting supercells capable of large/very-large hail and severe winds are probable. During the early evening, the low-level jet will strengthen. Moisture return will increase and low-level hodographs will become larger. A zone of greater tornado potential is evident from southern portions of the South Plains into the northern Permian Basin, particularly for supercells lasting into the early evening. The evolution of convection becomes a bit more uncertain into the later evening. The ramp up in the low-level jet should eventually promote upscale growth into a cluster/MCS. This activity could persist into parts of central Texas. Model guidance continues to differ on the placement of this feature. The exact track will depend largely on how far north the greater moisture is able to advect. Severe winds would be the primary threat with these storms, though low-level shear would also support some tornado risk even with a linear mode. During the overnight and into Tuesday morning, the greatest mid-level height falls will occur in the southern High Plains. An additional cluster/MCS on the retreating dryline. How severe this activity will be is unclear given the time of day and the preceding convection. ...Florida... With cold temperatures aloft (-10 to -12 C) remaining over the Peninsula and stronger surface heating expected to occur, a few strong to severe storms will again be possible along the eastern sea breeze boundary. 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE and 25-35 kts of effective shear (stronger to the north) will promote supercell structures capable of large hail and damaging winds. A brief tornado would be possible with storms that interact favorably with the sea breeze boundary. ...Mid-Atlantic into Upper Ohio Valley... While some precipitation and cloud cover may occur early Monday morning, models continue to show agreement that pockets of surface heating will promote around 1000 J/kg by the afternoon. Enhanced mid-level winds around the Ohio Valley upper low will foster 40-45 kts of effective shear. Isolated large hail and strong/damaging winds will be possible with the strongest storms. ..Wendt.. 05/04/2025 Read more